11
The Severn Barrage and Other
Options: Hydro-environmental
Impact Assessment Studies
by
Roger A. Falconer FREng
Halcrow ...
22
A New Dawn
www.corlanhafren.co.uk
33
General Challenges
 Growing worldwide increase in energy demand -
particularly in India and China
 Tidal energy gener...
44
Global CO2 Concentration
Steep increase
since 1800
Roughly constant for
hundreds of years
Source - Met Office
55
Predicted Future CO2 LevelsCO2concentration(ppm)
750
650
550
450
350
250
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
50% 1990
em...
66
Predicted Mean Temperature Rise
Globaltemperaturerise,degreesC
High emissions
Medium-high emissions
Medium-low emission...
77
Predicted Mean Rainfall Changes
For Wales / SW
Present day wet
events with a 5 yr
return period are
predicted to occur
...
88
Boscastle - Picturesque Village in U.K.
99
Boscastle - August 2004 (1:400 yr flood)
1010
Hurricanes: Link to Climate Change
Source - Jorg Imberger
Hurricanes inject large amounts of CO2 into upper atmospher...
1111
The Perfect Storm  2030
1212
UK Challenges - Population Growth
Population growth
not just a challenge
for developing
countries: UK issue
1313
Planned Renewable Energy Provision
EU target of 20% carbon reduction by 2020
Considerable
Scope to increase
1414
Mean Spring Tidal Stream Resource
Source – DTI Atlas of
Marine Renewable
Energy Resources
1515
Mean Spring Tidal Range Resource
Source – DTI Atlas of
Marine Renewable
Energy Resources
1616
WalesWales
EnglandEngland
Severn EstuarySevern Estuary
1717
Proposed Tidal Devices for Severn
 Tidal Stream Turbines - wind type turbines
located in water column and energy cre...
1818
Potential Power from Tides
2
µPower A H
H = level difference across barrage / lagoon
A = wetted surface area upstream...
1919
Tidal Stream Turbines
DeltaStream SwanTurbines
• Rotor diameter ≥ 15m 
depth ≥ 25m to operate
• Nominally ≈ 1.2MW/un...
2020
Cardiff Turbine Design
Flow
• Turbine will operate in any flow depth
• Design in its infancy – long way to go
2121
Tidal Lagoon Concept
Source – University
of Colorado
Swansea Bay Lagoon
takes over 8hr to empty
2222
 Embankment wall
length over 9 km
 Plan area ≈ 5km2
=
1000 football fields
 Mean spring tidal
range ≈ 8.5 m
 Ener...
2323
Original Proposals
80 km2
Impoundment
Environmental Impact?
2424
EIA Studies Needed for Lagoons
Model studies needed to predict changes for:-
Tidal currents:- speed, levels, eddies...
2525
Government Short Listed Proposals
2626
Severn Barrage - 1849
First proposed by Thomas Fulljames - 1849
2727
The Other Challenge
2828
Severn Barrage Proposal Site
Some key facts:
 2nd highest spring
tidal range ≈ 14 m
 Cardiff to Weston
 Length abo...
2929
Barrage Layout (1989 Report)
Key facts:
 216 turbines
each 40 MW
≈ 17 TWh pa
 166 sluices
 Ship locks
 Fish pass?...
3030
Construction: Prefabricated Caissons
Slide – courtesy
of STPG
3131
Turbine Installation
Slide – courtesy
of STPG
Slide – courtesy
of STPG
3232
Tidal Power Generation
Slide – courtesy
of STPG
3333
Proposed Operation - Ebb Generation
Slide
courtesy
of STPG
3434
Proven Technology - La Rance
La Rance Barrage, France, has reliably
generated tidal power for over 35 years
3535
Barrage Effect on Tides
Estuary Bed
Tide Enters
Severn Estuary
Flow through
turbines
Barrage
3636
Existing Estuarine Environment
 Tide Range - 14 m on springs, 7 m on neaps
High tidal currents and large inter-tida...
3737
Changing Natural Environment
 Climate Change
 Temperature rise will affect ecology, birds etc
 Sea level rise will...
3838
Wigeon - 8,062
Pochard - 880
Ringed Plover - 665
Curlew - 2,545
Whimbrel - 222
Spotted Redshank - 10
Wigeon - 3,977
P...
3939
Main Effects of Barrage
 Spring tide range reduced from 14 m to 7 m
 Significant loss of upstream inter-tidal habit...
4040
Severn Estuary Hydraulic Model
4141
Severn Barrage - Grid Configuration
Inner Barrage
Cardiff
4242
Grid Refinement Around Barrage
Shipping locks
80 Sluices
12 Sluices
Sub-stations
168 Turbines
48 Turbines
Sub-station...
4343
(a)
Velocity Field Around Barrage
2 m/s
water level(m)
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Frame 001  12 Apr 2008  Hydrodynamic Res...
4444
Level of water inside
impoundment
Option 1: Generate over ebb tide only
Proposed: One Way Generation
4545
Alternative: Two Way Generation
Level of water inside
impoundment
Option 2: Generate over full tide
Rapid filling and...
4646
Three Modes of Operation Studied
Waterlevel(m)
Filling Generating
Holding Holding
Filling
Hmin
Hst
(a) Ebb Generation...
4747
Maximum Water Levels - Ebb Only
Without Barrage
Maximum Water Level (m)
Tenby
Cardiff
Minehead
Weston
Ilfracombe
Barr...
4848
Without Barrage
With Barrage
Maximum Water Levels - Two-Way
Reduced
flood risk
4949
Peak Water Levels
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
020406080100120140160180200
Existing
Cardiff-Weston Barrage
Fleming Lagoon
Shoots...
5050
Maximum Tidal Currents - Ebb Only
Without Barrage
Maximum Velocit y(m/s)
Tenby
Cardiff
Minehead
Weston
Ilfracombe
Bar...
5151
Maximum Currents - Ebb and Two-Way
Maximum Velocit y(m/s)
Tenby
Cardiff
Minehead
Weston
Ilfracombe
Barry
Swansea
Glou...
5252
Water levels and Power Output
I II III II
I=Filling (4.3h)
II=Holding (1.6h+1.0h)
III=Generating (5.5h)
4m
2m
(a)(a)
...
5353
High Suspended Sediment Levels
Dynamic region of
high turbidity
5454
Suspended Sediment Levels
Mean Flood
Without Barrage With Barrage
Mean Flood - Spring Tide
Reduced sediment
levels & ...
5555
Effects of Turbidity Changes
But what type of birds?
Dunlin or other birds?
5656
Riverine and WwTW Source Inputs?
RiversRivers
WwTWsWwTWs
5757
EU Bathing Water Directive
5858
Diffuse Pollution Effects?
Wales Population: Humans - 2.75m Sheep - 10.5m
5959
Enteric
bacteria
water column
Wastewater
outfalls
Catchment runoff
Water birds
input
Advection with
diffusion/dispers...
6060
Enterococci T90 Experiments
 Samples taken from 5
sites along estuary
 Dark and irradiated
microcosms tested
4 time...
6161
Relationship with Turbidity/SS
 Empirical relationships developed between turbidity and
suspended solids and T90 val...
6262
Sediment Associated Experiments 2
 Two beakers incubated at 15˚C  one mixed and one
allowed to settle - two sites t...
6363
Mean Ebb
Bacteria Levels
Without Barrage With Barrage
Mean Ebb - Rivers in Flood
Reduction in
bacteria levels
6464
Welsh Grounds Lagoon
6565
2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
2 m/s
Water level (m)
Flood
ame 001  01 Sep 2008  Hydrodynamic Results in Nodes
0 0.5 1 1...
6666
I – Filling
II – Holding
III – Generating
I II III
Predicted Power Generation
6767
Shoots Barrage
Shoots Barrage
Second Severn
Crossing M4
Severn Bridge
Key facts
 30 x 7.6m diam
35 MW turbines
≈ 2.7...
6868
Other Issues to Consider
 Barrage would bring jobs:
 30,000+ jobs at construction peak, distributed over
UK - about...
6969
Summarising
 Severn Barrage would have a lasting impact on a
unique UK macro-tidal estuary:
 Provide 5% of UK’s ele...
7070
UK Relative Water Stress
High water
stress
Low water
stress
7171
Severn Barrage: More than a Renewable
Energy Project
7272
BBC Documentary on Barrage
by
Jonathan Porritt
7373
7474
Addendum
7575
The ChallengeThe Challenge
For engineers and scientists to deliverFor engineers and scientists to deliver
UK’s marine...
7676
Thank YouThank You
Professor Roger A. Falconer
Email: FalconerRA@cf.ac.uk
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  • Mean Ebb
    without Velocity Vectors
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  • Ice midlands region warwick, 2010

    1. 1. 11 The Severn Barrage and Other Options: Hydro-environmental Impact Assessment Studies by Roger A. Falconer FREng Halcrow Professor of Water Management Hydro-environmental Research Centre Cardiff School of Engineering, Cardiff University
    2. 2. 22 A New Dawn www.corlanhafren.co.uk
    3. 3. 33 General Challenges  Growing worldwide increase in energy demand - particularly in India and China  Tidal energy generation has advantage over wind and waves - in that tides are predictable  UK target of 15% of energy from renewables by 2020 - about 35% of electrical energy  Wales’ 2025 target for marine renewables energy is 14 TWh/yr - Barrage would generate over 60%  Severn Estuary basin is ideal for tidal energy
    4. 4. 44 Global CO2 Concentration Steep increase since 1800 Roughly constant for hundreds of years Source - Met Office
    5. 5. 55 Predicted Future CO2 LevelsCO2concentration(ppm) 750 650 550 450 350 250 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Year 50% 1990 emissions Constant 1990 emissions Business as usual Source: IPCC
    6. 6. 66 Predicted Mean Temperature Rise Globaltemperaturerise,degreesC High emissions Medium-high emissions Medium-low emissions Low emissions Source - Met Office
    7. 7. 77 Predicted Mean Rainfall Changes For Wales / SW Present day wet events with a 5 yr return period are predicted to occur between 1.5 & 8.5 times more often Source - Met Office
    8. 8. 88 Boscastle - Picturesque Village in U.K.
    9. 9. 99 Boscastle - August 2004 (1:400 yr flood)
    10. 10. 1010 Hurricanes: Link to Climate Change Source - Jorg Imberger Hurricanes inject large amounts of CO2 into upper atmosphere By 2034 predicted there will be 50 more category 4 & 5 storms
    11. 11. 1111 The Perfect Storm  2030
    12. 12. 1212 UK Challenges - Population Growth Population growth not just a challenge for developing countries: UK issue
    13. 13. 1313 Planned Renewable Energy Provision EU target of 20% carbon reduction by 2020 Considerable Scope to increase
    14. 14. 1414 Mean Spring Tidal Stream Resource Source – DTI Atlas of Marine Renewable Energy Resources
    15. 15. 1515 Mean Spring Tidal Range Resource Source – DTI Atlas of Marine Renewable Energy Resources
    16. 16. 1616 WalesWales EnglandEngland Severn EstuarySevern Estuary
    17. 17. 1717 Proposed Tidal Devices for Severn  Tidal Stream Turbines - wind type turbines located in water column and energy created directly from tidal stream currents  Tidal Lagoons (OTIs) - enclosed embayment constructed offshore, creating tidal phased head difference - similar to barrage concept  Tidal Barrage - embankment across estuary - ideal for renewable energy with high tidal range and large upstream plan-surface area
    18. 18. 1818 Potential Power from Tides 2 µPower A H H = level difference across barrage / lagoon A = wetted surface area upstream of barrage  For tidal barrages and impoundments:- 3 µPower V V = mean free-stream tidal current  For tidal stream turbines:-
    19. 19. 1919 Tidal Stream Turbines DeltaStream SwanTurbines • Rotor diameter ≥ 15m  depth ≥ 25m to operate • Nominally ≈ 1.2MW/unit
    20. 20. 2020 Cardiff Turbine Design Flow • Turbine will operate in any flow depth • Design in its infancy – long way to go
    21. 21. 2121 Tidal Lagoon Concept Source – University of Colorado Swansea Bay Lagoon takes over 8hr to empty
    22. 22. 2222  Embankment wall length over 9 km  Plan area ≈ 5km2 = 1000 football fields  Mean spring tidal range ≈ 8.5 m  Energy output of 124 GWh/yr  Severn Barrage ≈ 135 tidal lagoons  Cost ≈ £200 m (?) Key details: Shape and Scale - Swansea Lagoon Plan Area ≈ 5km2 Swansea Harbour Swansea Bay Source – Tidal Electric Ltd Turbine Housing
    23. 23. 2323 Original Proposals 80 km2 Impoundment Environmental Impact?
    24. 24. 2424 EIA Studies Needed for Lagoons Model studies needed to predict changes for:- Tidal currents:- speed, levels, eddies, river plumes Wave climate:- height, length, refraction, reflection Suspended sediments:- distribution along channel Sediment deposition:- in and out of impoundment Coastal morphology:- changes to beach profiles Water quality:- turbidity, nutrients, light penetration Pre-/post-construction:- short & long term impacts Mitigating measures:- changes to design/operation
    25. 25. 2525 Government Short Listed Proposals
    26. 26. 2626 Severn Barrage - 1849 First proposed by Thomas Fulljames - 1849
    27. 27. 2727 The Other Challenge
    28. 28. 2828 Severn Barrage Proposal Site Some key facts:  2nd highest spring tidal range ≈ 14 m  Cardiff to Weston  Length about 16 km  Generate ≈ 5% of U.K. electricity  Total cost ≈ £20 bn  Save > 6.8 million tonnes carbon paSlide – courtesy of STPG
    29. 29. 2929 Barrage Layout (1989 Report) Key facts:  216 turbines each 40 MW ≈ 17 TWh pa  166 sluices  Ship locks  Fish pass?  Public road & railway Slide – courtesy of STPG
    30. 30. 3030 Construction: Prefabricated Caissons Slide – courtesy of STPG
    31. 31. 3131 Turbine Installation Slide – courtesy of STPG Slide – courtesy of STPG
    32. 32. 3232 Tidal Power Generation Slide – courtesy of STPG
    33. 33. 3333 Proposed Operation - Ebb Generation Slide courtesy of STPG
    34. 34. 3434 Proven Technology - La Rance La Rance Barrage, France, has reliably generated tidal power for over 35 years
    35. 35. 3535 Barrage Effect on Tides Estuary Bed Tide Enters Severn Estuary Flow through turbines Barrage
    36. 36. 3636 Existing Estuarine Environment  Tide Range - 14 m on springs, 7 m on neaps High tidal currents and large inter-tidal areas 30 Mt sediment suspended on springs, 4 Mt neaps Little sunlight penetration through water column Reduced saturation dissolved oxygen levels  Ecology Harsh estuarine regime with high currents Limited aquatic life in water column / bed Bird numbers per km2 are relatively small
    37. 37. 3737 Changing Natural Environment  Climate Change  Temperature rise will affect ecology, birds etc  Sea level rise will lead to increased flood risk  Water Quality  Cleaner effluent discharges with EU WFD  Nutrient reduction will affect aquatic life  Legislation  Long term projects (>120 yr) require assessment against future - not just current - environment
    38. 38. 3838 Wigeon - 8,062 Pochard - 880 Ringed Plover - 665 Curlew - 2,545 Whimbrel - 222 Spotted Redshank - 10 Wigeon - 3,977 Pochard - 1,686 Ringed Plover - 227 Curlew - 3,096 Whimbrel - 246 Spotted Redshank - 3 Nationally important bird populations Shelduck - 3,272 Dunlin - 23,312 Redshank - 2,566 European Goose - 942 Shelduck - 2,892 Dunlin - 41,683 Redshank - 2,013 European Goose - 3002 Internationally important populations of migratory birds Bewick’s Swan - 276Bewick’s Swan - 289 Internationally important populations of Annex 1 species Species numbers between 2000 – 05 (Red - Less, Blue - More) Species numbers between 1988 - 93 Citation category Source - RSPB Bird Species in SPA Citation
    39. 39. 3939 Main Effects of Barrage  Spring tide range reduced from 14 m to 7 m  Significant loss of upstream inter-tidal habitats  Reduced currents up & downstream of barrage  Reduced turbidity / suspended sediment levels  Increased light penetration through water column - with increased water clarity  Increased primary productivity and changed bio- diversity of benthic fauna and flora  Upstream tidal range of 7m is still relatively large compared to most deltas world-wide
    40. 40. 4040 Severn Estuary Hydraulic Model
    41. 41. 4141 Severn Barrage - Grid Configuration Inner Barrage Cardiff
    42. 42. 4242 Grid Refinement Around Barrage Shipping locks 80 Sluices 12 Sluices Sub-stations 168 Turbines 48 Turbines Sub-stations 74 Sluices Embankment Flat Holm Steep Holm Embankment Cardiff Weston
    43. 43. 4343 (a) Velocity Field Around Barrage 2 m/s water level(m) -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Frame 001  12 Apr 2008  Hydrodynamic Results in Nodes 2 m/s water level(m) 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Flood Ebb
    44. 44. 4444 Level of water inside impoundment Option 1: Generate over ebb tide only Proposed: One Way Generation
    45. 45. 4545 Alternative: Two Way Generation Level of water inside impoundment Option 2: Generate over full tide Rapid filling and emptying of basin required at either end of tidal cycle
    46. 46. 4646 Three Modes of Operation Studied Waterlevel(m) Filling Generating Holding Holding Filling Hmin Hst (a) Ebb Generation A B C D C D Time(h) Ebb only Time(h) Waterlevel(m) Generating Holding Holding Hmin Hst (b) Flood generation A D B C D Releasing Releasing Flood only Time(h) Waterlevel(m) FillingGenerating Hmin Hst (c) Two-way generation Generating GeneratingReleasing Filling HoldingHolding A B C D Two-way Model predictions resulted in peak power output for:- Starting Head = 4.0 m Minimum Head = 2.0 m
    47. 47. 4747 Maximum Water Levels - Ebb Only Without Barrage Maximum Water Level (m) Tenby Cardiff Minehead Weston Ilfracombe Barry Swansea Gloucester Newport Bristol Avonmouth N 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 5.5 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 Frame 001  05 Nov 2009  Maximum Water Level With Barrage Reduced flood risk
    48. 48. 4848 Without Barrage With Barrage Maximum Water Levels - Two-Way Reduced flood risk
    49. 49. 4949 Peak Water Levels 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 020406080100120140160180200 Existing Cardiff-Weston Barrage Fleming Lagoon Shoots Barrage Swansea Minehead Newport Avonmouth Beachley(M48) Sharpness Cardiff Distance from Gloucester (km) HighWaterLevel(m) (DatumrelativetoAvonmouth) Epney Newnham
    50. 50. 5050 Maximum Tidal Currents - Ebb Only Without Barrage Maximum Velocit y(m/s) Tenby Cardiff Minehead Weston Ilfracombe Barry Swansea Gloucester Newport Bristol Avonmouth N 0.3 0.7 1 1.3 1.7 2 Frame 001  05 Nov 2009  Maximum Water Level With Barrage
    51. 51. 5151 Maximum Currents - Ebb and Two-Way Maximum Velocit y(m/s) Tenby Cardiff Minehead Weston Ilfracombe Barry Swansea Gloucester Newport Bristol Avonmouth N 0.3 0.7 1 1.3 1.7 2 e 001  05 Nov 2009  Maximum Water Level Ebb Only Two-Way
    52. 52. 5252 Water levels and Power Output I II III II I=Filling (4.3h) II=Holding (1.6h+1.0h) III=Generating (5.5h) 4m 2m (a)(a) I II Releasing (0.8h+1.1h) II=Holding (2.0h+1.3h) III=Generating (2.8h+4.4h) 4m 2m III III (d) I=Filling and (c) Ebb Only  48.8 GWh/24.8h  5.2 m mean tide  High tide 4.6 m Two-Way  48.4 GWh/24.8h  4.4 m mean tide  High tide 3.2 m
    53. 53. 5353 High Suspended Sediment Levels Dynamic region of high turbidity
    54. 54. 5454 Suspended Sediment Levels Mean Flood Without Barrage With Barrage Mean Flood - Spring Tide Reduced sediment levels & clearer water
    55. 55. 5555 Effects of Turbidity Changes But what type of birds? Dunlin or other birds?
    56. 56. 5656 Riverine and WwTW Source Inputs? RiversRivers WwTWsWwTWs
    57. 57. 5757 EU Bathing Water Directive
    58. 58. 5858 Diffuse Pollution Effects? Wales Population: Humans - 2.75m Sheep - 10.5m
    59. 59. 5959 Enteric bacteria water column Wastewater outfalls Catchment runoff Water birds input Advection with diffusion/dispersion output Overall reduction Decay Adsorption Deposition Sediment re-suspension and desorbed into water Enteric Bacteria Flux
    60. 60. 6060 Enterococci T90 Experiments  Samples taken from 5 sites along estuary  Dark and irradiated microcosms tested 4 times for each site Cellulose diacetate bandpass filter Mixing unit Chiller/heater Matt black lining  Artificial light source calibrated to provide average radiation conditions during July and August
    61. 61. 6161 Relationship with Turbidity/SS  Empirical relationships developed between turbidity and suspended solids and T90 values  Real-time T90 included in numerical model - varying with time, location, predicted SS level and radiation patterns
    62. 62. 6262 Sediment Associated Experiments 2  Two beakers incubated at 15˚C  one mixed and one allowed to settle - two sites tested Mixed beaker -concentrations remained constant Settled beaker – concentrations fell as finer particles settled
    63. 63. 6363 Mean Ebb Bacteria Levels Without Barrage With Barrage Mean Ebb - Rivers in Flood Reduction in bacteria levels
    64. 64. 6464 Welsh Grounds Lagoon
    65. 65. 6565 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 2 m/s Water level (m) Flood ame 001  01 Sep 2008  Hydrodynamic Results in Nodes 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 2 m/s Water level (m) Ebb Frame 001  01 Sep 2008  Hydrodynamic Results in Nodes Velocity Field Around Lagoon (a) During Filling Mode (b) During Generating Mode
    66. 66. 6666 I – Filling II – Holding III – Generating I II III Predicted Power Generation
    67. 67. 6767 Shoots Barrage Shoots Barrage Second Severn Crossing M4 Severn Bridge Key facts  30 x 7.6m diam 35 MW turbines ≈ 2.75 TWh/yr  Construction period ~ 4 yr  Less plan area  Slightly higher tidal ranges  Cost ≈ £2.6 bn
    68. 68. 6868 Other Issues to Consider  Barrage would bring jobs:  30,000+ jobs at construction peak, distributed over UK - about half in Cardiff - Bristol region  10,000+ permanent jobs in Severnside  Regional economic impact:  Availability of skilled labour and materials?  Local infrastructure needs - housing, schools etc  Concerns about supply chain, deep ports etc  Opportunities for expansion of Port Talbot etc  Considerable tourism and recreational potential  Road / rail links between Wales, London and EU
    69. 69. 6969 Summarising  Severn Barrage would have a lasting impact on a unique UK macro-tidal estuary:  Provide 5% of UK’s electricity from renewables  Reduce intertidal habitats by about 14,000 ha  Reduce flood peaks - upstream and downstream  Reduce tidal currents and suspended sediments - increasing light penetration and water clarity  Change ecology and benthic flora and fauna  Enhance opportunities for tourism and recreation  Two-way generation - enables optimal energy provision for minimal environmental change  Fish migration would remain a major challenge
    70. 70. 7070 UK Relative Water Stress High water stress Low water stress
    71. 71. 7171 Severn Barrage: More than a Renewable Energy Project
    72. 72. 7272 BBC Documentary on Barrage by Jonathan Porritt
    73. 73. 7373
    74. 74. 7474 Addendum
    75. 75. 7575 The ChallengeThe Challenge For engineers and scientists to deliverFor engineers and scientists to deliver UK’s marine renewable energy targetsUK’s marine renewable energy targets The OpportunityThe Opportunity For UK to deliver renewable energyFor UK to deliver renewable energy with minimal environmental impactwith minimal environmental impact
    76. 76. 7676 Thank YouThank You Professor Roger A. Falconer Email: FalconerRA@cf.ac.uk
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