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From Food Production to Food Security:

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Presentations for CTA/WUR Inception Workshop on “Mainstreaming Tertiary Education in ACP ARD Policy Processes: Increasing Food Supply and Reducing Hunger”

Presentations for CTA/WUR Inception Workshop on “Mainstreaming Tertiary Education in ACP ARD Policy Processes: Increasing Food Supply and Reducing Hunger”

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  • 1. From Food Production to Food Security:challenges & opportunitiesProf. dr ir Rudy RabbingeEmeritus University Professor Sustainable Development & Food securityCTA/WUR Inception Workshop: increasing food supply & reducinghunger, Sept. 18th, 2012
  • 2. Content Megatrends in agriculture Global food security Why is Africa lagging behind (IAC study) A way forward
  • 3. Megatrends in agriculture
  • 4. …Global Food Security …
  • 5. Global grain productivity (1950 – 2010) 400 production ton/ha 300 Index value 200 100 area 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 yearSource: FAOstat
  • 6. Global grain acreage (1950 – 2010) 400 300 Index value population 200 100 area per capita 0 area 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 yearSource: FAOstat
  • 7. Global grain production (1950 – 2010) 400 production 300 Index value population 200 per capita 100 production 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 yearSource: FAOstat
  • 8. Food availability per capita (1960 – 2000) 150 Asia 125 S. America Index value 100 SS Africa 75 50 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 yearSource: FAOstat
  • 9. Global dietskcal per person.day need 1 billion people 1 billion people underweight overweight 0 1000 2000 2000 3000 4000
  • 10. Global diets kcal per person.day need world India China The Netherlands USADem. Rep. of Congo Africa 0 1000 2000 2000 3000 4000
  • 11. Demand = Population x Diet
  • 12. World population(x billion people)10 8 6 world 4 developing world developed world 2 0 1990 2010 2030 2050
  • 13. Global population Developed Emerg. Urban Emerg. Rural 2.6 3.1 (billions) 5.3 2.6 1.2 1.3 2010 2050 Source: VFRC
  • 14. Food demand % increase 2050 vs 2010 Total 70%Emerg. Rural 9%Emerg. Urban 163% Developed 6% Source: IFDC
  • 15. Discontinuities wheat yields (NL)ton grain ha-1 10 150 kg ha-1 y-1 Green revolution 8 6 4 15 kg ha-1 y-1 2 0 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
  • 16. Discontinuities wheat yields (UK & USA)ton grain ha-1 6 Green revolution 5 78 kg ha-1 y-1 4 UK 3 USA 4 kg ha-1 y-1 2 50 kg ha-1 y-1 1 3 kg ha-1 y-1 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
  • 17. Discontinuities paddy yield (Indonesia)ton paddy ha-1 5 Green revolution 4 3 2,5 kg ha-1 y-1 130 kg ha-1 y-1 2 1 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
  • 18. Green revolutions Production ecological principles towards potential production ● integrated soil and water management ● control of pests, diseases and weeds Plant breeding short straw varieties (harvest index increased)  higher proportion harvestable product Presence of functioning institutions Political will Functioning markets
  • 19. Needs for new green revolutions Demographic reasons (population growth)* Changes in diet (more animal proteins) Shortage of good agricultural land Safeguard biodiversity Environmental reasons (degradation/pollution) Bio-based economy* Climate change
  • 20. Production-ecological principles & practice Defining factors Limiting factors Reducing factors Post-harvest •CO2 •water •weeds losses •radiation •nutrients •pests •microbial •temperature (N,P,K) •diseases •insects •crop genetics •pollutants •rodents •wasteyield level yield yield increasing protecting yield gap measures measures post- harvest- technology • storage • packing potential attainable actual available production production production production PRODUCTION SITUATION
  • 21. Two strategiesincreasepotential yield gap yield gap decrease yield gappotential actual potential actual yield yield yield yield
  • 22. …Why is Africa lagging behind ?...
  • 23. Africa: Maize yield/ha stagnates10 Actual maize yield (t ha-1) EU15 8 N. America 6 4 L. America & Car. 2 E. & S-E.Asia S. Asia Sub-S. Africa 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000
  • 24. Why is Africa lagging behind? Study by Inter Academy Council “ Realizing the promise and potential of African agriculture” “I request the IAC a report providing a technological strategic plan to provide substantial increase in agricultural productivity in Africa” Kofi Annan, March 2002
  • 25. Study results (1) Problems of Africa Weathered soils Erratic rainfall Endemic plant and animal diseases Poor resource base, Vulnerable environment Nutrient depletion no data low moderate Absence of dominating food crops high very high Multitude of farming systems Need for many different technologies
  • 26. Study results (2) Problems of Africa Dominant role for women – limited access to resources Land and Labor productivity low How to become competitive? Lack of investment in agricultural research Lack of knowledge infrastructure Lack of functioning academic institutions Brain drain Need for investment in research and education
  • 27. GDP & Investments in agriculture Public spending on agriculture lowest in agriculture based countries while their share of agriculture in GDP is highest Agricultural GDP/GDP Public agric. spending/agric. GDP% %35 35 1980 2000 1980 200030 3025 2520 2015 1510 10 5 5 0 0 Agric. based Transforming Urbanized Agric. based Transforming Urbanized Source: IAC report
  • 28. Study results (3) Problems of Africa Not functioning local and regional markets Land entitlement inappropriate No stimulating political and economic environment Inadequate capacity to impact global policy formulation Lack of good governance Need for renewal of institutional arrangements
  • 29. …A way forward …
  • 30. IAC report: Strategic Recommendations Technology options that can make a difference (11) Building impact-oriented research, knowledge and development institutions (5) Creating and retaining a new generation of agricultural scientists (5) Markets and policies to make the poor prosperous and food secure (5) Increase investments in agriculture and infrastructure
  • 31. IAC report: Priorities on 4 farming systems Agricultural Value Added (Worldbank) Underweight Children (CIESIN)160120100 80 40 0
  • 32. Priority Farming Systems Irrigated system Maize mixed system Tree crop based system Cereal root crop mixed system Hunger Hotspot (CIESIN)
  • 33. IAC report: A Production Ecological Approach Yields according to Yields under actual field conditions production ecological principles 12 unidentified factors limiting factors reducing factors 10 Yield Gap potentialrelative yield 8 YG-1 6 4 YG-2 2 0 Potential Water & Reduced Experimental Best farmer Average Nutr limited . field farmer
  • 34. IAC report: Invest in institutions Design and invest in national agricultural science systems that involve farmers in education, research and extension. Encourage institutions to articulate science and technology strategies and policies Increase agricultural research investment on average to at least 1.5 percent of agricultural gdp in African nations in 2015 Cultivate African centres of agricultural research excellence. Strengthen CGIAR
  • 35. IAC report: Create new scientists Broaden and deepen political support for agricultural science. Mobilize increased and sustainable funding for higher education in science and technology, minimizing dependence on donor support. Focus on current and future generations of agricultural scientists. Reform university curricula Strengthen science education at primary and secondary school levels.
  • 36. IAC report: Interventions related to marketing Increase investments in rural infrastructure Strengthen capacity to expand market opportunities Reduce barriers to increased African trade with OECD countries Improve data generation and analysis related to agriculture, food, and nutrition security and vulnerability Institute effective intellectual property rights regimes to encourage the private sector and facilitate public- private partnerships.
  • 37. Impact of IAC-report: Alignment in studies World Development Report 2008 International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) MDG: Halving the Hunger: it can be done Multi-country agricultural productivity programme for Africa (MAPP) OECD Promoting Pro-Poor Growth: Agriculture (POVNET) FAO The State of Food and Agriculture (2005): Agricultural Trade and Poverty
  • 38. A New Green Revolution AGRA programs develop practical solutions to significantly boost farm productivity and incomes for the poor while safeguarding the environment.
  • 39. Implementation IAC report Technology options that make a difference  PASS program AGRA  Soil health program AGRA and other programs  Integrated programs, leapfrogging to new technologies (production ecology)  Improved ecological literacy, no ecological dogmatism
  • 40. Implementation IAC report Building impact oriented research, knowledge and development institutions • Strengthening FARA and national programs • Many private-public institutions • Global Challenge program Sub Sahara Africa
  • 41. Implementation IAC report Markets to make the poor prosperous and food ● SecureCommitment African Union ● Strengthening regional and local markets ● Markets oriented programs AGRA
  • 42. Progress in Ethiopia - investments Trends in agri. investment capital (billion Birr) 100 80 60 40 20 - 1980s 1990s 2000s 2009 Source: Dr. A. Tsegaye, 2012
  • 43. Progress in Ethiopia - returns Trends in agricultural export value (x1000 USD) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Dr. A. Tsegaye, 2012
  • 44. Undernourishment (% of total population) > 35% 30% 20% 10% < 5% 2006-2008 2000-2002 1995-1997 1990-1992 Source: FAO
  • 45. Follow-up activities Consolidation and expansion AGRA IFDC programs on integrated soil fertility management including market development for input provision and sale of produce CAADP political commitment of African governments: African-led and African-owned initiative focus on ● soil fertility ● marketing ● agricultural research ● food supply and hunger AAA stimulation of entrepreneurship Strenghtening food security programs in various countries: USA, DFID, The Netherlands

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