From Food Production to Food Security:challenges & opportunitiesProf. dr ir Rudy RabbingeEmeritus University Professor Sus...
Content Megatrends in agriculture Global food security Why is Africa lagging behind (IAC study) A way forward
Megatrends in agriculture
…Global Food Security …
Global grain productivity (1950 – 2010)               400                                            production           ...
Global grain acreage (1950 – 2010)               400               300 Index value                                        ...
Global grain production (1950 – 2010)               400                                            production             ...
Food availability per capita (1960 – 2000)               150                                                              ...
Global dietskcal per person.day           need           1 billion people          1 billion people           underweight ...
Global diets    kcal per person.day         need   world             India            China   The Netherlands             ...
Demand   =   Population   x   Diet
World population(x billion people)10  8  6                                          world  4                              ...
Global population        Developed   Emerg. Urban   Emerg. Rural                                       2.6          3.1   ...
Food demand               % increase 2050 vs 2010       Total              70%Emerg. Rural   9%Emerg. Urban               ...
Discontinuities wheat yields (NL)ton grain ha-1   10                                                      150 kg ha-1 y-1 ...
Discontinuities wheat yields (UK & USA)ton grain ha-1    6                                            Green revolution    ...
Discontinuities paddy yield (Indonesia)ton paddy ha-1    5                                     Green revolution    4    3 ...
Green revolutions Production ecological principles towards potential production     ● integrated soil and water manageme...
Needs for new green revolutions Demographic reasons (population growth)* Changes in diet (more animal proteins) Shortag...
Production-ecological principles & practice               Defining factors        Limiting factors       Reducing factors ...
Two strategiesincreasepotential  yield     gap                                       yield gap                            ...
…Why is Africa lagging behind ?...
Africa: Maize yield/ha stagnates10    Actual maize      yield (t ha-1)                                 EU15 8             ...
Why is Africa lagging behind?   Study by Inter Academy Council “ Realizing the promise and potential          of African a...
Study results (1) Problems of Africa Weathered soils Erratic rainfall Endemic plant and animal diseases Poor resource ...
Study results (2) Problems of Africa Dominant role for women – limited access to resources Land and Labor productivity l...
GDP & Investments in agriculture      Public spending on agriculture lowest in agriculture based countries                ...
Study results (3) Problems of Africa Not functioning local and regional markets Land entitlement inappropriate No stimu...
…A way forward …
IAC report: Strategic Recommendations   Technology options that can make a difference (11)   Building impact-oriented re...
IAC report: Priorities on 4 farming systems      Agricultural Value Added (Worldbank)   Underweight Children (CIESIN)16012...
Priority Farming Systems                           Irrigated system                           Maize mixed system          ...
IAC report: A Production Ecological Approach                           Yields according to                               Y...
IAC report: Invest in institutions Design and invest in national agricultural science systems that involve farmers in edu...
IAC report: Create new scientists Broaden and deepen political support for agricultural science. Mobilize increased and ...
IAC report: Interventions related to marketing Increase investments in rural infrastructure Strengthen capacity to expan...
Impact of IAC-report: Alignment in studies World Development Report 2008 International Assessment of Agricultural Knowle...
A New Green Revolution    AGRA programs develop practical solutions to  significantly boost farm productivity and incomes ...
Implementation IAC report   Technology options that make a difference      PASS program AGRA      Soil health program A...
Implementation IAC report   Building impact oriented research, knowledge and    development institutions    • Strengtheni...
Implementation IAC report Markets to make the poor prosperous and food ● SecureCommitment African Union ● Strengthening r...
Progress in Ethiopia - investments     Trends in agri. investment capital (billion Birr)   100    80     60     40     20 ...
Progress in Ethiopia - returns     Trends in agricultural export value (x1000 USD)   1,400   1,200   1,000     800     600...
Undernourishment (% of total population)                                   > 35%                                   30%    ...
Follow-up activities Consolidation and expansion AGRA IFDC programs on integrated soil fertility management including ma...
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Presentations for CTA/WUR Inception Workshop on “Mainstreaming Tertiary Education in ACP ARD Policy Processes: Increasing Food Supply and Reducing Hunger”

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From Food Production to Food Security:

  1. 1. From Food Production to Food Security:challenges & opportunitiesProf. dr ir Rudy RabbingeEmeritus University Professor Sustainable Development & Food securityCTA/WUR Inception Workshop: increasing food supply & reducinghunger, Sept. 18th, 2012
  2. 2. Content Megatrends in agriculture Global food security Why is Africa lagging behind (IAC study) A way forward
  3. 3. Megatrends in agriculture
  4. 4. …Global Food Security …
  5. 5. Global grain productivity (1950 – 2010) 400 production ton/ha 300 Index value 200 100 area 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 yearSource: FAOstat
  6. 6. Global grain acreage (1950 – 2010) 400 300 Index value population 200 100 area per capita 0 area 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 yearSource: FAOstat
  7. 7. Global grain production (1950 – 2010) 400 production 300 Index value population 200 per capita 100 production 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 yearSource: FAOstat
  8. 8. Food availability per capita (1960 – 2000) 150 Asia 125 S. America Index value 100 SS Africa 75 50 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 yearSource: FAOstat
  9. 9. Global dietskcal per person.day need 1 billion people 1 billion people underweight overweight 0 1000 2000 2000 3000 4000
  10. 10. Global diets kcal per person.day need world India China The Netherlands USADem. Rep. of Congo Africa 0 1000 2000 2000 3000 4000
  11. 11. Demand = Population x Diet
  12. 12. World population(x billion people)10 8 6 world 4 developing world developed world 2 0 1990 2010 2030 2050
  13. 13. Global population Developed Emerg. Urban Emerg. Rural 2.6 3.1 (billions) 5.3 2.6 1.2 1.3 2010 2050 Source: VFRC
  14. 14. Food demand % increase 2050 vs 2010 Total 70%Emerg. Rural 9%Emerg. Urban 163% Developed 6% Source: IFDC
  15. 15. Discontinuities wheat yields (NL)ton grain ha-1 10 150 kg ha-1 y-1 Green revolution 8 6 4 15 kg ha-1 y-1 2 0 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
  16. 16. Discontinuities wheat yields (UK & USA)ton grain ha-1 6 Green revolution 5 78 kg ha-1 y-1 4 UK 3 USA 4 kg ha-1 y-1 2 50 kg ha-1 y-1 1 3 kg ha-1 y-1 0 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
  17. 17. Discontinuities paddy yield (Indonesia)ton paddy ha-1 5 Green revolution 4 3 2,5 kg ha-1 y-1 130 kg ha-1 y-1 2 1 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
  18. 18. Green revolutions Production ecological principles towards potential production ● integrated soil and water management ● control of pests, diseases and weeds Plant breeding short straw varieties (harvest index increased)  higher proportion harvestable product Presence of functioning institutions Political will Functioning markets
  19. 19. Needs for new green revolutions Demographic reasons (population growth)* Changes in diet (more animal proteins) Shortage of good agricultural land Safeguard biodiversity Environmental reasons (degradation/pollution) Bio-based economy* Climate change
  20. 20. Production-ecological principles & practice Defining factors Limiting factors Reducing factors Post-harvest •CO2 •water •weeds losses •radiation •nutrients •pests •microbial •temperature (N,P,K) •diseases •insects •crop genetics •pollutants •rodents •wasteyield level yield yield increasing protecting yield gap measures measures post- harvest- technology • storage • packing potential attainable actual available production production production production PRODUCTION SITUATION
  21. 21. Two strategiesincreasepotential yield gap yield gap decrease yield gappotential actual potential actual yield yield yield yield
  22. 22. …Why is Africa lagging behind ?...
  23. 23. Africa: Maize yield/ha stagnates10 Actual maize yield (t ha-1) EU15 8 N. America 6 4 L. America & Car. 2 E. & S-E.Asia S. Asia Sub-S. Africa 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year 2000
  24. 24. Why is Africa lagging behind? Study by Inter Academy Council “ Realizing the promise and potential of African agriculture” “I request the IAC a report providing a technological strategic plan to provide substantial increase in agricultural productivity in Africa” Kofi Annan, March 2002
  25. 25. Study results (1) Problems of Africa Weathered soils Erratic rainfall Endemic plant and animal diseases Poor resource base, Vulnerable environment Nutrient depletion no data low moderate Absence of dominating food crops high very high Multitude of farming systems Need for many different technologies
  26. 26. Study results (2) Problems of Africa Dominant role for women – limited access to resources Land and Labor productivity low How to become competitive? Lack of investment in agricultural research Lack of knowledge infrastructure Lack of functioning academic institutions Brain drain Need for investment in research and education
  27. 27. GDP & Investments in agriculture Public spending on agriculture lowest in agriculture based countries while their share of agriculture in GDP is highest Agricultural GDP/GDP Public agric. spending/agric. GDP% %35 35 1980 2000 1980 200030 3025 2520 2015 1510 10 5 5 0 0 Agric. based Transforming Urbanized Agric. based Transforming Urbanized Source: IAC report
  28. 28. Study results (3) Problems of Africa Not functioning local and regional markets Land entitlement inappropriate No stimulating political and economic environment Inadequate capacity to impact global policy formulation Lack of good governance Need for renewal of institutional arrangements
  29. 29. …A way forward …
  30. 30. IAC report: Strategic Recommendations Technology options that can make a difference (11) Building impact-oriented research, knowledge and development institutions (5) Creating and retaining a new generation of agricultural scientists (5) Markets and policies to make the poor prosperous and food secure (5) Increase investments in agriculture and infrastructure
  31. 31. IAC report: Priorities on 4 farming systems Agricultural Value Added (Worldbank) Underweight Children (CIESIN)160120100 80 40 0
  32. 32. Priority Farming Systems Irrigated system Maize mixed system Tree crop based system Cereal root crop mixed system Hunger Hotspot (CIESIN)
  33. 33. IAC report: A Production Ecological Approach Yields according to Yields under actual field conditions production ecological principles 12 unidentified factors limiting factors reducing factors 10 Yield Gap potentialrelative yield 8 YG-1 6 4 YG-2 2 0 Potential Water & Reduced Experimental Best farmer Average Nutr limited . field farmer
  34. 34. IAC report: Invest in institutions Design and invest in national agricultural science systems that involve farmers in education, research and extension. Encourage institutions to articulate science and technology strategies and policies Increase agricultural research investment on average to at least 1.5 percent of agricultural gdp in African nations in 2015 Cultivate African centres of agricultural research excellence. Strengthen CGIAR
  35. 35. IAC report: Create new scientists Broaden and deepen political support for agricultural science. Mobilize increased and sustainable funding for higher education in science and technology, minimizing dependence on donor support. Focus on current and future generations of agricultural scientists. Reform university curricula Strengthen science education at primary and secondary school levels.
  36. 36. IAC report: Interventions related to marketing Increase investments in rural infrastructure Strengthen capacity to expand market opportunities Reduce barriers to increased African trade with OECD countries Improve data generation and analysis related to agriculture, food, and nutrition security and vulnerability Institute effective intellectual property rights regimes to encourage the private sector and facilitate public- private partnerships.
  37. 37. Impact of IAC-report: Alignment in studies World Development Report 2008 International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) MDG: Halving the Hunger: it can be done Multi-country agricultural productivity programme for Africa (MAPP) OECD Promoting Pro-Poor Growth: Agriculture (POVNET) FAO The State of Food and Agriculture (2005): Agricultural Trade and Poverty
  38. 38. A New Green Revolution AGRA programs develop practical solutions to significantly boost farm productivity and incomes for the poor while safeguarding the environment.
  39. 39. Implementation IAC report Technology options that make a difference  PASS program AGRA  Soil health program AGRA and other programs  Integrated programs, leapfrogging to new technologies (production ecology)  Improved ecological literacy, no ecological dogmatism
  40. 40. Implementation IAC report Building impact oriented research, knowledge and development institutions • Strengthening FARA and national programs • Many private-public institutions • Global Challenge program Sub Sahara Africa
  41. 41. Implementation IAC report Markets to make the poor prosperous and food ● SecureCommitment African Union ● Strengthening regional and local markets ● Markets oriented programs AGRA
  42. 42. Progress in Ethiopia - investments Trends in agri. investment capital (billion Birr) 100 80 60 40 20 - 1980s 1990s 2000s 2009 Source: Dr. A. Tsegaye, 2012
  43. 43. Progress in Ethiopia - returns Trends in agricultural export value (x1000 USD) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Dr. A. Tsegaye, 2012
  44. 44. Undernourishment (% of total population) > 35% 30% 20% 10% < 5% 2006-2008 2000-2002 1995-1997 1990-1992 Source: FAO
  45. 45. Follow-up activities Consolidation and expansion AGRA IFDC programs on integrated soil fertility management including market development for input provision and sale of produce CAADP political commitment of African governments: African-led and African-owned initiative focus on ● soil fertility ● marketing ● agricultural research ● food supply and hunger AAA stimulation of entrepreneurship Strenghtening food security programs in various countries: USA, DFID, The Netherlands

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