Kitsap RegionalAlternative Futures Project        May 5, 2011            KRCC      Planning Directors
The SettingIn the past 50 years, Kitsap County grewfrom 84,000 to 251,000 people.  1960: 1 person/3 acres  Today: 1 person...
Question How can Kitsap County accommodate growth while maintaining the viability of the economy and the environment?
Today’s Discussion Describe Alternative Futures Describe Envision software Envision Skagit Envision Kitsap
Alternative Futures10/16/09                         5
Alternative Futures A planning method which compares long- term effects of planning policies   Decision support tool   Sce...
Alternative Futures  DCD received EPA grant    2010-2012  Local Partners    ILAs with Bainbridge Island, Bremerton    Vary...
Kitsap Alternative Futures Project  Purpose as stated in EPA contract    Accommodate growth while improving priority    ha...
Kitsap Alternative Futures Project     Get         Create     Test                                    Use model  organized...
Envision Software Package                            10
Envision software package Purpose: facilitate alternative futures analysis Helps users   Develop and play out alternative ...
Envision software package Organizes three-way interactions of actors, the landscape and policies.               ies       ...
Envision software package Actors   Have decision making authority over parcels of   land   Are characterized by the values...
Envision– General Structure  Actors: Decision                  Landscape Feedback   makers making                         ...
Envision PoliciesEnvision’sPolicy Wizardhelp userscreate thepolicies thatconstrainactors.  Spatially  explicit  Temporally...
Envision ScenariosEnvision’sScenarioWizardhelps usersbundlepoliciesintocoherentscenarios                     16
Envision Landscape Landscape comprised of Individual Decision Units (IDUs)   Single actor   Basic unit to analyze landscap...
Envision Landscape Evaluators Maps and Graphs that reflect scenario’s performance with respect to indicators   Year by yea...
Envision Indicators Should measure/report   Things that are important   Things that decision makers care about and   will ...
Initial OutputsENVISION SKAGIT
Envision Skagit 2060One year aheadof Kitsap’s effortSimilarities  EPA-grant funded  Indicators  ScenariosInitial Envisionr...
Zoning
Zoning
Floodplain
Existing UGAs (2010)
2060 UGAs – Plan Trend Scenario
2060 UGAs – Ecosystem Scenario
2060 UGAs – Development Scenario
New Dwelling Units – Ecosystem 2060
New Dwelling Units – Development 2060
Current Status, Next StepsENVISION KITSAP
Envision Kitsap: IDUs Developing Individual Decision Units   140,000 Parcel IDUs     36K have “Constrained     Development...
Envision Kitsap: Priority Areas  Types of “Priority Areas”    Conservation    Development  Tells Envision places more/less...
DraftPriority Areas  Conservation    Critical Areas    Habitat quality    Water flow    Land cover  Development    Infrast...
Envision Kitsap: Population  Population growth    1.13% 2010 to 2030 (PSRC)    1.2% 2030 to 2060 (OFM & PSRC)  Population ...
Next Steps: Scenarios Scenario = Set of development rules   Plan Trend   Development   Ecosystem   Resource Harvest Types ...
Next Steps: Scenarios First “Plan Trend” then other “bookends”   Sufficiently different to show policy impacts   Robust is...
Kitsap Alternative Futures ProjectQUESTIONS ?
Kitsap County Futures 05/11
Kitsap County Futures 05/11
Kitsap County Futures 05/11
Kitsap County Futures 05/11
Kitsap County Futures 05/11
Kitsap County Futures 05/11
Kitsap County Futures 05/11
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Kitsap County Futures 05/11

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Transcript of "Kitsap County Futures 05/11"

  1. 1. Kitsap RegionalAlternative Futures Project May 5, 2011 KRCC Planning Directors
  2. 2. The SettingIn the past 50 years, Kitsap County grewfrom 84,000 to 251,000 people. 1960: 1 person/3 acres Today: 1 person/1 acreIn the next 50 years we are expected togrow to 450,000. 2060: 1 person/0.56 ac
  3. 3. Question How can Kitsap County accommodate growth while maintaining the viability of the economy and the environment?
  4. 4. Today’s Discussion Describe Alternative Futures Describe Envision software Envision Skagit Envision Kitsap
  5. 5. Alternative Futures10/16/09 5
  6. 6. Alternative Futures A planning method which compares long- term effects of planning policies Decision support tool Scenarios: set of policies characterized by a particular value Indicators Examples Willamette Chico Watershed Silverdale/Barker
  7. 7. Alternative Futures DCD received EPA grant 2010-2012 Local Partners ILAs with Bainbridge Island, Bremerton Varying involvement: Other cities, tribes Contractors OSU: Create Envision Kitsap model Battelle: Integrate Envision model with nearshore assessment
  8. 8. Kitsap Alternative Futures Project Purpose as stated in EPA contract Accommodate growth while improving priority habitat of Kitsap’s shoreline and uplands What DCD aims to get from the project A modeling tool to examine impacts of land use decisions (e.g., UGA expansions/ contractions, zoning) Growth in Kitsap that is economically and environmentally viable
  9. 9. Kitsap Alternative Futures Project Get Create Test Use model organized model model (2012) (2010) (2011) (2011) Step 1: Get organized (2010) Step 2: Create Kitsap’s model (2011) Step 3: Test model (2011/12) Step 4: Use model (2012)
  10. 10. Envision Software Package 10
  11. 11. Envision software package Purpose: facilitate alternative futures analysis Helps users Develop and play out alternative land use scenarios Visualize resulting growth via time series maps Communicate ecological, economic and social changes (maps, graphs, tables) 11
  12. 12. Envision software package Organizes three-way interactions of actors, the landscape and policies. ies Ac lic tor Po s Landscapes 12
  13. 13. Envision software package Actors Have decision making authority over parcels of land Are characterized by the values they express through their behaviors, which alter land use Landscape Summation of parcels Changes as individual decisions are made Policies (aka Development Rules) Guide and constrain decisions 13
  14. 14. Envision– General Structure Actors: Decision Landscape Feedback makers making Landscape landscape change Evaluative Changeby selecting policies Models: Generate responsive to their landscape metrics objectives Actions reflecting scarcity Landscape: Spatial Policy Container in Selection which land use changes are depictedPolicies: Fundamental Descriptors of Autonomous Changeconstraints and actions Processes: Models of defining land use nonhuman changemanagement decision making
  15. 15. Envision PoliciesEnvision’sPolicy Wizardhelp userscreate thepolicies thatconstrainactors. Spatially explicit Temporally explicit Scenario- specific 15
  16. 16. Envision ScenariosEnvision’sScenarioWizardhelps usersbundlepoliciesintocoherentscenarios 16
  17. 17. Envision Landscape Landscape comprised of Individual Decision Units (IDUs) Single actor Basic unit to analyze landscape change Essentially parcels Every rule is applied to every IDU for every year 17
  18. 18. Envision Landscape Evaluators Maps and Graphs that reflect scenario’s performance with respect to indicators Year by year All scenarios 18
  19. 19. Envision Indicators Should measure/report Things that are important Things that decision makers care about and will inform/influence decisions Examples Urban/rural split Population by City/UGA, etc. Acres of commercial, residential land Acres of habitat available for key species 19
  20. 20. Initial OutputsENVISION SKAGIT
  21. 21. Envision Skagit 2060One year aheadof Kitsap’s effortSimilarities EPA-grant funded Indicators ScenariosInitial Envisionresults releasedin December
  22. 22. Zoning
  23. 23. Zoning
  24. 24. Floodplain
  25. 25. Existing UGAs (2010)
  26. 26. 2060 UGAs – Plan Trend Scenario
  27. 27. 2060 UGAs – Ecosystem Scenario
  28. 28. 2060 UGAs – Development Scenario
  29. 29. New Dwelling Units – Ecosystem 2060
  30. 30. New Dwelling Units – Development 2060
  31. 31. Current Status, Next StepsENVISION KITSAP
  32. 32. Envision Kitsap: IDUs Developing Individual Decision Units 140,000 Parcel IDUs 36K have “Constrained Development Portion” 1,800 Road IDUs 900 Shoreline IDUs 16 Lake IDUs
  33. 33. Envision Kitsap: Priority Areas Types of “Priority Areas” Conservation Development Tells Envision places more/less suited for Development and Conservation Envision will track population changes within Priority Areas Envision will nudge people towards Development Priority Areas
  34. 34. DraftPriority Areas Conservation Critical Areas Habitat quality Water flow Land cover Development Infrastructure Services Jurisdictions Draft
  35. 35. Envision Kitsap: Population Population growth 1.13% 2010 to 2030 (PSRC) 1.2% 2030 to 2060 (OFM & PSRC) Population growth is the primary driver of land use change Envision allocates “Plan Trend” will use CPPs’ allocation for 2010-2030 Total population same for each scenario
  36. 36. Next Steps: Scenarios Scenario = Set of development rules Plan Trend Development Ecosystem Resource Harvest Types of development rules Urban/rural split Zoning density Building in constrained areas, resource lands Lot aggregation UGA contraction
  37. 37. Next Steps: Scenarios First “Plan Trend” then other “bookends” Sufficiently different to show policy impacts Robust is helpful; timid is not Roles DCD staff: Propose set of development rules Board: Review City/tribal planners: Review/comment OSU: Translate the development rules into Envision code When: Spring
  38. 38. Kitsap Alternative Futures ProjectQUESTIONS ?
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