Emerging Markets QoS Expectations

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Key note presentation at WiMax Forum Global Congress 2010 in Amsterdam.

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Emerging Markets QoS Expectations

  1. 1. Mobile broadbanddemand in emergingmarkets … will itbecomparabletodevelopedmarkets? WiMAX Forum Global Congress 2010, Amsterdam 17th June 2010.<br />Dr. Kim Kyllesbech LarsenInternational Network Economics,<br />Technology, T-Mobile<br />
  2. 2. 17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />2<br />Changing market - tomorrow’s world.Social trends and technological indicators.<br />25+ mn Mobile-TV users in APAC<br />1.60+ bn internet users.<br />350+ mn active users.<br />65+ mn mobile users.<br />2.5+ bnphotouploads /month<br />$4.5+ bn mobile gaming revenue<br />3+ bn iPhone Appsdownloads.<br />20+ hrs video uploads / day<br />4.1+ bn mobile users.<br />250+ bn e-mails per day.<br />40+% more than 5 MB.<br />400+ mn registered users. <br />86+ mn active ebay users<br />Digitize<br />Socialize<br />Individualize<br />All IP … All Digital<br />Networking and Sharing<br />My-tech NOT Hi-tech<br />
  3. 3. Mobile broadband traffic demand is turning red hot. <br />Today’s volume distribution<br />Volume distribution 2020+<br />><br />><br />Bytes<br />1<br />100+ (CAGR 50% pa)<br />Bits per second<br />1<br />300+ (CAGR 70% pa)<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />3<br />
  4. 4. Asia emerging growth markets 2014 … broadband everywhere? for everyone?<br />1 out of 2 house-hold has a PC.<br />Pop<br />3.2bn<br />More 60% by 2016.<br />HH<br />0.8bn<br />1 out of 4 house-hold has (fixed) broadband.<br />PC<br />12%<br /> 1 in 3 by 2016.<br />M&W<br />BB<br />7%<br />1 out of 14 people will have mobile broadband.<br />1 in 7 by 2016.<br />Considering: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />4<br />
  5. 5. Emerging growth market’s mobile broadband quality will be difficult (or very costly) to match to western market’s QoS.<br />Illustration<br />Delhi<br />Amsterdam<br />2.2 mn pop & 1,200 pop per km2<br />Min. 2×10 MHz @ 2.1 GHz<br />19 mn pop & 12,000 pop per km2<br />2×5 MHz @ 2.1 GHz / 1×20 MHz @ 2.3 GHz<br />Coverage requirement 500 (2.1 GHz) to 650 (2.3 GHz)<br />7 kHz to 13 kHz<br />per MBB customer 1<br />100 kHz <br />per MBB customer 1<br />1 25% marketshare and 20% mobile broadbandpenetration.<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Mobile broadband quality depends (roughly) on distance to cell center, demand density and available bandwidth. <br />Illustration<br />DL power<br />Quality (speed, capacity, latency, …)<br />2.1 – 2.6 GHz<br />900 MHz<br />UL power<br />Cell range<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />6<br />
  7. 7. The wired, the wireless and the mobile broadband.<br />100+<br />Illustration: relative usage<br />70↑+<br />20<br />1<br />1/3<br />Mobile broadband<br />850 MHz – 2.1 GHz<br />BWA<br />2.3 – 2.5+ GHz<br />Fixed<br />with<br />WiFi<br />Mobile broadband: hardly any QoS pricing <br />mainly based on volumetric FUP. <br />Wireless & Fixed Broadband business model uses QoS-based pricing.<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />7<br />
  8. 8. Devices with a supporting web-based service ecosystem generates substantially more traffic than “normal handsets”<br />Terminal distribution<br />Corresponding volume<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />8<br />
  9. 9. Need for speed depends on terminal device, price plan and supporting service ecosystems, e.g., Apps store, iTunes, p2p..<br />Illustration<br />Increasinglatencyrequirements<br />Increasingbandwidth and volumetricdemand<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />9<br />
  10. 10. Streaming takes up 60% of mobile user generated http traffic. <br />URL distribution<br />Corresponding volume per URL<br />Note: abovedistributions do notinclude peer-2-peer traffic.<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />10<br />
  11. 11. Device performance drives mobile broadband usage.<br />Illustration: relative volume-based usage versus device (& network) performance. <br />> 20+%<br />3Gs: CPU ARM 600MHz (HSPA7.2Mbps)<br />3G: CPU ARM 412MHz (HSPA 3.6 Mbps)<br />2G: CPU ARM 412 MHz (EDGE 0.237 Mbps) 1<br />1 EDGE only market data<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />11<br />
  12. 12. Mobile broadband usage versus pricing.<br />Illustration: Volumetric demand versus price plan<br />Volumetricdemand<br />34 ×<br />low mobile<br />×34<br />×12<br />×8<br />×2<br />1<br />6 × low mobile<br />Prepaid mobile ×0.2 of low mobile (contract).<br />Prepaid laptop ×5.5 of low mobile (contract).<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />12<br />
  13. 13. Available speed (per customer) is a function of distance from cell center and active customer density within cell.<br />Illustration<br />DL power<br />Peak speed <br />Average speed<br />Speed @ Cell egde and beyond<br />UL power<br />Cell range<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />13<br />
  14. 14. Emerging market broadband … “happy” short-term, a tougher future. <br />Tougher future … QoS limitations.<br />Dramatic Hz per customer drop!<br />Relative quality drops<br />High investment level required to maintain quality.<br />Happy start … plenty of quality.<br />Lots of Hz per customer!<br />Good quality.<br />Re-use site-grid or Greenfield with relative low TCO levels.<br />17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />14<br />
  15. 15. 17 June 2010<br />Kim Kyllesbech Larsen, Technology - T-Mobile.<br />15<br />The emerging market mobile broadband<br />customer experience will depend on network quality, <br />pricing and device portfolio (prepaid dominated?).<br />demand density per available Hz is likely to be much higher<br />compared to western markets <br />customer is likely to experience worse broadband quality<br />compared to that of developedmarkets.<br />
  16. 16. 16/06/2010<br />16<br />Thankyouverymuch!Acknowledgementgoesto Miruna Anăstăsoaie, Veli-Pekka Kröger and Minoo Abedi.<br />Contact:<br />kim.larsen@t-mobile.nl<br />Tel: +31 6 2409 5202<br />http://nl.linkedin.com/in/kimklarsen<br />

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