Keynote commodity daily report for 210213

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Keynote commodity daily report for 210213

  1. 1. Daily Commodity Report 21st February 2013 20-Feb-13 Gold Silver Crude MCX GOLD (5 APRIL 13) – Expiry 05-Apr-13 05-Mar-13 19-Mar-13 Gold opened lower at 30028 but managed to move higher to touch Open 30,028 55,259 5,250 an intra-day high of 30040. However, it failed to sustain higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 29505. It ended the day High 30,040 55,278 5,289 with large losses to close at 29579. Low 29,505 53,266 5,132 The Stochastic has slipped below its average. Moreover, the RSI is Close 29,579 53,720 5,164 already placed below its average. These negative conditions would lead to selling pressure. However, the Stochastic and RSI are also Prev. Close 30,052 55,171 5,246 placed in the over sold zone, which would lead to intermediate % Change -1.57% -2.63% -1.56% bouts of short covering at lower levels. The –DI line and ADX line are placed above the +DI line and are also placed above the 33Source – MCX level, indicating sellers have an upper hand. MCX Gold faces resistance at 30000, 30150, 30475, 30916 and 31535 while the Volume (In 000s) support levels are placed at 29500, 29142 and 28765. 20-Feb-13 19-Feb-13 % Chg. MCX SILVER (5 MARCH 13) – Gold (gms) 51,699.0 28,841.0 79.26% Silver opened higher at 55259 and moved further higher to touch an intra-day high of 55278. However, it failed to sustain higher and Silver (kgs) 3,468.4 2,257.9 53.61% moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 53266. It ended the day Crude (bbl) 28,157.4 10,411.6 170.44% with large losses to close at 53720.Source – MCX The RSI is still placed below its average, which would lead to selling pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed above its Turnover (In Lacs) average and is also placed in the over sold zone along with the RSI. These conditions would lead to intermediate bouts of short 20-Feb-13 19-Feb-13 % Chg. covering and buying support at lower levels. The –DI line and ADX line are placed above the +DI line and are also placed above theGold 1,538,041.6 868,400.1 77.11% 28 level, indicating sellers have an upper hand. MCX Silver facesSilver 1,881,444.0 1,257,426.4 49.63% resistance at 55952, 56372, 56613, 57049, 59483 and 61484 while the supports are placed at 53621, 52622 and 51660 levels.Crude 1,471,685.1 545,120.5 169.97% MCX CRUDE (19 MARCH 13) –Source – MCX Crude opened higher at 5250 and moved further higher to touch an Global Market (Nymex - $) intra-day high of 5289. However, it failed to sustain higher and moved lower to touch an intra-day low of 5132. It ended the day 20/02/2013 19/02/2013 % Chg. with large losses to close the day at 5164.Gold (oz) 1,559.50 1,578.10 -1.18% The RSI and the Stochastic are placed below their respective averages, which would lead to intermediate bouts of sellingSilver (oz) 28.46 28.62 -0.56% pressure. However, the Stochastic is placed in the over sold zone,WTI Crude (bbl) 94.46 95.15 -0.73% which would lead to short covering at lower levels. The –DI line and ADX line are placed above the +DI line. The –DI line is also placedBrent Crude (bbl) 115.17 115.60 -0.37% above the 29 level, indicating sellers are gaining strength. MCXDollar Index 81.14 81.08 0.07% Crude faces resistance at 5250, 5300, 5401 and 5476, while the supports are placed 5157, 5122 and 5085.Source – www.cmegroup.com Sanjay Bhatia (AVP – Technical Research) Email sanjay@keynotecapitals.net Yahoo Id: keytechnicals@yahoo.in NOTE – Stop Losses should be considered strictly on Closing Basis Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  2. 2. Commodity News:Metals in need of infra push to regain shineThe Indian steel industrys performance this year is regarded as one the best when pitted against global peers. Whileglobal steel production grew by a mere 0.9% in the first 11 months of 2012 and Chinese production rose by 2.9%, theIndian steel industry posted an impressive 4.2% growth.India suspends jewellery imports from ThailandIndia has suspended jewellery imports from Thailand on the apprehension that exporters of other countries wererouting their exports from there to take the advantage of bilateral trade agreement between the two.Gold falls to 6-month low on signs of economic recoveryGold fell to a six-month low on Wednesday, breaking through support at $1,600 an ounce, as investors were drawn toriskier assets ahead of a closely watched US Fed minutes later in the day. Signs of an improving global economicoutlook sent equities to multi-year highs this week, making golds safe haven qualities less appealing. Spot gold fell aslow as $1,590.71 an ounce, its lowest since August 15.Source: ETEconomic Calendar: Countries / Thursday Friday Monday Regions 21/13 22/13 25/13 India Bank Loan Growth (Feb 3) FX Reserves, USD (Feb 24) Initial Jobless Claims (Feb FOMC Member Powell Dallas Fed Manufacturing US 17) Speech Business Index (Feb) Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Jan) European Commission China CB Leading Economic China HSBC Manufacturing Global Releases Economic Growth Index (Jan) PMI (Feb) Forecasts Euro Markit Manufacturing China MNI Business UK Nationwide Housing PMI (Feb) Sentiment Indicator (Feb) Prices n.s.a (YoY) (Feb) Germany Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) (Q4) Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com
  3. 3. DisclaimerThis document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced orredistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions.This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is notto be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitationwould be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Keynote Capitals Ltd. It does not constitute a personal recommendation ortake into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.We have reviewed the report, and in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy orcompleteness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Keynote Capitals Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from theuse of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Priceand value of the investments referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance.Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options and other derivatives as well as non-investment grade securities - involvesubstantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Reports based on technical analysis centers on studying charts of a stock’s pricemovement and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company’s fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on acompany’s fundamentals.Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonablebasis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to changewithout notice. Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with therecommendations expressed herein.We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy orsell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earnbrokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act asadvisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation andrelated information and opinions.The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about thesubject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectlyrelated to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Keynote Capitals Ltd’s., prior written consent. Keynote Capitals Ltd. The Ruby, 9th Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Dadar (W), Mumbai – 400 028. Tel: 3026 6000. Fax: 3026 6088. www.keynotecapitals.com

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