1. K E Y N O T E
Keynote Capitals Institutional Research - Industry Monitor December 05, 2011
Industries covered
• Banks
• Cement
• Infrastructure
• IT
• Media & Entertainment
Executive Summary
RBI deregulates interest on savings accounts in Regional Rural Banks
In a notification addressed to all the 82 Regional Rural Banks functioning in the country jointly owned
by GoI, RBI said, RRBs are free to determine their savings bank deposit interest rate subject to two
conditions. Under the first condition, the notification said, "each bank will have to offer a uniform
interest rate on savings bank deposits up to `1 lakh, irrespective of the amount in the account within
this limit". The other condition states that "for savings bank deposits over `1 lakh, a bank may provide
differential rates of interest, if it so chooses".
Cement industry registered strong dispatches in November
Cement industry registered strong dispatches in November due to renewed cement demand after
monsoon season. Country’s top 3 companies, ACC, Ambuja Cements and Ultratech Cement
registered growth of 5%, 29% and 16.3%, respectively in November. Coal India asked the
government to do away with a provision under New Coal Distribution Policy that allows it to import the
raw material on behalf of domestic customers and sell it to them. According to a company official, this
was because the coal producer could not find any consumer ready to buy it at the price being offered
by CIL. Ultratech cement (UCL) proposed setting up a cement plant in West Bengal of 2mn tonne
capacity. During Q2FY12, 22 cement companies delivered robust revenue growth of 25.7% and
profits growth of 139.1%. EBITDA margin for these 22 cement companies improved from 12.2% in
Q2FY11 to 16.2% in Q2FY12.
Eight core infra growth ease to 0.1%, raising concern of IIP growth
The growth of eight core infrastructure industries for the month of October 2011 declined to six year
low-level of 0.1% compared to 7.2% in October 2010. This barely positive growth of core infra
industries suggests that industrial growth will moderate in coming months as the eight infra industries
which includes coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products and fertilizer, have combined weight of
38% in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
IT stocks up on positive steps from major world’s central banks
BSE IT index closed at 5726.93, up 2.26% during the last fortnight vis-à-vis its previous fortnight. The
gainers on the BSE IT index were HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro up 3.45%, 8.04% and 5.29%,
respectively and Infosys, Tech Mahindra and Persistent System were losers on the BSE IT index. IT
stocks rose after major central banks moved to tame a liquidity crunch for European banks by
providing cheaper dollar funding. Europe is the second largest market for the Indian IT companies.
Bill introduced in Lok Sabha to make digitization in cable TV mandatory
The government has introducing a Bill in the Lok Sabha to make changes in the Cable TV Networks
(Regulation) Act making digitization mandatory. The Bill, piloted by Information and Broadcasting
Ministry, seeks to digitize the cable sector in the country by December 31, 2014.
Weightages in major indices
Sectors Sensex Nifty BSE 500 CNX 500
Banks 22.71% 23.65% 22.34% 22.93%
Cement 0.51% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%
Infrastructure 8.34% 8.54% 7.39% 7.60%
Information & Technology 14.83% 13.13% 10.24% 10.34%
Media & Entertainment 0.78% 0.78%
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2. K E Y N O T E
Banking Industry Monitor
Banking Industry and its contribution to Indian equities
Banking and other Finance firms together have the highest weightage in the Sensex and BSE 500
with 22.71% and 22.34% respectively. The major players in BANKEX Indices are the private banks
namely ICICI Bank (25.90%), which is the second largest bank in India with HDFC Bank (24.99%).
Other banks include SBI (15.32%), Axis Bank (7.68%) and Kotak Bank (5.72%). The sector’s
weightage in CNX Nifty is 23.65% and in CNX 500 is 22.18%.
RBI deregulates interest on savings accounts in Regional Rural Banks
The Reserve Bank has deregulated interest rate on savings accounts subject to two conditions in
Regional Rural Banks (RRBs), a move that will fetch better returns for its depositors. Under the first
condition, the notification said, "each bank will have to offer a uniform interest rate on savings bank
deposits up to `1 lakh, irrespective of the amount in the account within this limit". The other condition
states that "for savings bank deposits over `1 lakh, a bank may provide differential rates of interest, if
it so chooses". This would, however, be subject to the condition that banks will not discriminate in the
matter of interest paid on such deposits, between one deposit and another of similar amount,
accepted on the same date, at any of its offices, it said.
RRBs were established in 1975 with the objective of creating an alternative channel to cooperative
credit structure to ensure sufficient institutional credit for rural and agriculture sector. Till now, RRBs
were mandated to give 3.5% interest rates on such deposits that was increased to 4% in May 2011.
Banks can now open branches in Tier 2 cities without RBI’s approval
The Reserve Bank has relaxed branch authorisation policy by allowing banks to open administrative
office or service branch in cities with population of over 50,000 but less than 1 lakh without its
approval. "Now that general permission to banks has been extended for opening of branches in Tier 2
centres, domestic scheduled commercial banks (other than RRBs) will be allowed to open
administrative offices and central processing centres or service branches in Tier 2 centre" the RBI
said in a notification. The decision was taken as it was observed that branch expansion in Tier 2
centres has not taken place at the desired pace, it said. As per the existing regulation, such relaxation
is already available to banks in case they want to expand their presence in Tier 3-6 cities.
SBI plans to install 40,000 ATMs
State Bank of India plans to install 40,000 ATMs to widen its reach across the country. SBI owns the
maximum number of ATMs in India. Of the 74,743 ATMs in the country, SBI had 20,084 at the end of
March 2011, according to a survey by Atos Worldline, which specialises in electronic payment
services. A banker, who did not want to be named, said the ATMs will be installed across
geographies, with each geography being allotted to various state-owned banks depending on their
presence in such locations. The new ATMs will be rolled out in a phased manner in 2012-13. At least
25% of the 40,000 ATMs will be installed in the first quarter, 40% in the second quarter, 25% in the
third quarter and the rest by the end of the fourth quarter.
Federal Bank ties-up withTata Motors to finance latter’s commercial vehicles
Private lender Federal Bank has signed an agreement with the auto major Tata Motors to finance the
latter's commercial vehicles through an alliance partnership. "We see vast opportunities in servicing
our SME customers through this relationship," Federal Bank Executive Director PC John said. The
partnership can be termed as a strategic alliance between one of the major private sector banks,
having 823 branches and the biggest vehicle manufacturer, having over 60% market share in
commercial vehicle segment of the country, Federal Bank said in a statement.
Axis Bank closely monitors exposure to infrastructure projects
Axis Bank is closely monitoring its exposure to infrastructure projects, a senior official said, joining
other Indian banks who have turned cautious amid a slowdown in the sector. "The bank has been
selective in its approach to finance infrastructure projects," V. Srinivasan, Executive Director,
Corporate Banking. "Our exposure to infrastructure is well within prudential levels set up by the bank
and exposures are being closely monitored," he said.
Rising interest rates, high inflation and worsening global conditions are also dragging down near-term
business sentiment in India. "Over the last few months, there has been a slowdown in new project
financing requests on account of policy uncertainty and volatility in offshore and local markets,"
Srinivasan said.
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3. K E Y N O T E
ICICI Bank eyes Indian loans at European banks
India's biggest private lender ICICI Bank is open to buying loan portfolios of European banks, as
banks in the region look to deleverage and offload loans to shore up capital base. "The opportunity to
pick up some good assets at good pricing clearly exists. So, that's what we are looking at all the time
and exercising it whenever we see the right opportunity," Chanda Kochhar, CEO told the Reuters
India Investment Summit. "We have picked up some which are India-related assets, but I would say
not very large number, because given the fact that on the other hand the ability to raise funds
currently has also become more expensive," she added.
European banks are struggling to raise their capital cushions to become more resilient against future
shocks, which they can do by increasing equity they hold or by shrinking their asset base. The
European Banking Authority has said banks need more than 100 billion euros of new capital, but the
International Monetary Fund warned in September EU banks faced possible losses of 300 billion
euros as a result of sovereign and interbank lending risks.
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4. K E Y N O T E
Cement Industry Monitor
Cement dispatches reported robust growth in November
Top 3 cement companies in India registered strong growth in November. ACC’s dispatches improved
5% while Ambuja Cements reported a robust growth of 29%. Ultratech Cement’s dispatches rose
16.3% in November.
Coal India asks Government for scrapping of import clause in new coal policy
Coal India (CIL) asked the government to do away with a provision under New Coal Distribution
Policy that allows it to import the raw material on behalf of domestic customers and sell it to them.
According to a company official, this was because the coal producer could not find any consumer
ready to buy it at the price being offered by CIL. Importing coal means higher prices. Once we import,
we have to sell it at minimum profits. With our discussions with officials of some power and steel
companies, none of them agreed to pay more than the import price, the official said on the condition
of anonymity.
New Coal Distribution Policy makes it mandatory for CIL to meet up to 50% requirement of coal for
domestic consumers. When the policy was announced in 2007, CIL had agreed to the provision of
import thinking that it would be easier to meet the production shortfall.
However, as per current norms, coal has open general licensing system, which means, any company
be it steel, power or cement can import the raw material as per their requirement. Since there is a
shortage of coal production in the country, most of the private firms and PSUs including Tatas, NTPC,
meet their requirements through import. None of the companies would want to shell out more to buy it
from CIL.
UltraTech to set up 2 mtpa plant in Dankuni
Ultratech cement (UCL) proposed setting up a cement plant in West Bengal of 2mn tonne capacity.
The unit, to be second in the state, has received the clearance from the West Bengal Pollution Control
Board. The plant would have capacities of 6,000 tpd of cement, which will come up at Dankuni in
district Hoogly.
According to the project report submitted by Ultratech to the state environment department, the plant
will not be manufacturing clinker at the site, which would be brought from other manufacturing facility
and would be ground with fly ash and gypsum. The plant would consume 4,000-4,500 tonne of
clinker, 1,350-1,900 tonne fly ash and 280-350 tonne gypsum daily.
The company has not proposed any captive power generation unit for the 10mw the unit requires, and
would source it from the state power utility, West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Co.
Robust financial performance in Q2FY12
Cement industry registered strong top line and bottom line growth for Q2FY12 on account of low base
registered during the same quarter in previous year. During Q2FY12, 22 cement companies delivered
robust 25.7% revenue growth and profits growth of 139.1%. The growth was mainly on account of
improved cement prices and turnaround in the Southern cement companies. EBITDA margin for these
22 cement companies improved from 12.2% in Q2FY11 to 16.2% in Q2FY12.
Top line for cement companies in northern region grew 22.6% yoy in Q2FY12 while the growth was
much stronger for southern cement industry, which faced severe downturn in cement prices last year.
Revenues for south based companies rose 38.2%. However, South has registered sluggish demand
growth and the revenue growth came mainly from strong cement prices.
EBITDA margins for North was stable at 12.9% Q2FY12 marginally improved from 12.7% in Q2FY11.
Southern region's operational performance, however, was robust and EBITDA margin rose from 10%
last year to 28.5% in Q2FY12.
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5. K E Y N O T E
Infrastructure Industry Monitor
The Sector has underperformed 3.31%, 1.78%, 3.15% and 1.81% over Sensex, BSE500, Nifty and
CNX500 respectively. However, JSW Energy was the top performer by 4.35%, 5.89%, 4.47% and
5.81% whereas CESC was the worst performer by 12.46%, 10.92%, 12.37% and 11.03% over
Sensex, BSE500, Nifty and CNX500 respectively.
Slowest GDP growth since last 9 quarters crimped the consumption & investment demand
The slower performance in mining and quarrying, manufacturing and construction sector led to
deceleration in the GDP growth to 6.9% from 7.7% in Q1FY12 & 8.9% in Q2FY11. Evident from lower
industrial production numbers the manufacturing sector grew by 2.7%, compared to 10% in Q2FY11.
Also mining output decelerated by -2.9%, compared to 8.2% in Q2FY11. Tighter monetary policy (due
to higher inflationary pressures) has started to affect the consumer & investment demand in the
economy. Going forward higher crude oil & global commodity prices (demand from emerging markets
to increase), inflation is likely to remain at elevated levels. The industrial production is likely to remain
volatile on back of rising input costs, slower demand, and higher interest rates in the near future.
No plan for bailout package to private airlines: Aviation Minister
The government has once again clarified that there is no proposal under consideration for any kind of
bailout package for loss making private airlines. The Indian aviation sector has been under pressure
because of the high Jet fuel prices or Aviation turbine fuel (ATF), which account for almost 40% of the
airlines total cost in India and depreciating rupee. As per the latest report, Air India owed a sum of
`1880.4Cr to Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and `484.3Cr to Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
(BPCL) as on September 30, Air India was also having due of `417.0Cr to Hindustan Petroleum
Corporation Limited (HPCL). Besides Air India, private airlines such as Jet Airways’ owe `695.9Cr
outstanding due on September 30 to IOC and `153.2Cr to BPCL. Kingfisher’s outstanding debt to
HPCL is around `636.8Cr as on September 30, 2011.
Government to take decision on ethanol price
The government is likely to set price for ethanol and mandate a higher quantum to be blended with
petrol under the Ethanol Blending Programme (EBP) to promote Bio-fuel. Government may move
towards 10% blending from next year. Currently, the government has fixed a provisional price of
ethanol at `27 per litre. At this rate, the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) procure ethanol from sugar
mills to implement the mandatory 5% ethanol blending with petrol as a part of EBP under national
Policy on Bio-fuels. However, the sugar mill owners are unhappy with the provisional prices of
ethanol, as they can get much higher price if they sell it for rectified spirit, which is also produced from
the same feedstock molasses. Sugar millers are of the view that ethanol prices should be at `35-36
per litre. On the other hand, Planning Commission member - Soumitra Chaudhari has suggested
linking of ethanol price with international price of petrol, with a discount of 20%.
Power ministry green signals NTPC’s exit from ICVL
In a move that could mar India’s efforts to acquire overseas coal assets, power ministry has approved
NTPC’s proposed exit from International Coal Ventures (ICVL) as the latter was promoted by five
state-owned firms two years ago to buy coal mines overseas. While Steel Authority of India (SAIL)
and Coal India own 28% of the stake each of ICVL, NTPC, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam and NMDC own
14% each. However, 14% share of India’s largest power generation utility in the consortium, which
hasn’t managed to close a single purchase, is expected to be split proportionately among the
remaining partners. However for NTPC, this development means a focused approach in the pursuit of
coal resources as power producer needs thermal coal to fuel its power projects back home, while
ICVL’s other stakeholders are largely interested in metallurgical coal reserves to feed their steel mills.
IVRCL to churn assets portfolio to reduce debt burden
IVRCL, construction and EPC major is planning to churn its income-generating assets portfolio,
including toll ways, to trim down its debt, which stands at `2400Cr at present. Earlier company had
announced the plans to restructure its business. The company is going to sell stake in some of the
road assets, including toll ways, exiting some large water treatment projects or even inducting
strategic investors. Several investors and construction companies have evinced interest in partnering
the company. The company has five major revenue generating projects three of them toll ways, a
large water treatment project and a self-funded golf course project. All of them are income-generating,
barring the Golf project, where a Kotak arm is a strategic partner. By divesting stake, company will be
able to bring down the debt burden by about a third.
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6. K E Y N O T E
Reliance Infra to start toll collection at 10 road projects by March
Reliance Infrastructure is likely to start toll collection at its 10 road projects by the end of this fiscal.
These projects are being executed at an estimated investment of `10000Cr. After completion, these
projects are expected to generate revenue of `1200-1400Cr per annum. These 10 projects would be
fully-commissioned by 2014. Out of these 10 projects six projects of Reliance Infrastructure will
become revenue operational by March, 2012 and four have already started generating revenues. In
these six-pending projects, tolling can be commenced parallel to the commencement of construction
from the day financial closure is achieved. The company is executing these projects of the National
Highways Authority of India under the public-private-partnership (PPP) model and will earn revenue
from toll collected from traffic. Apart from this, the company has 25 infrastructure projects totaling
`40000Cr in hand, including these 10 projects.
Ashoka Buildcon qualifies as successful bidder for NHAI project
Ashoka Buildcon has been declared as a successful bidder for one of National Highways Authority of
India (NHAI) project vide letter of award dated November 30, 2011. The company had submitted its
bid with the NHAI for design, build, finance and operation of rehabilitation and up-gradation of four
laning of Cuttack - Angul section of NH-42 from Km 0.000 to Km 112.000 in the State of Orissa under
NHDP Phase IV to be executed as BOT (Toll) on DBFOT Pattern. The project was on premium basis
with the concession period of 23 years and NHAI cost of the project was `1123.7Cr.
Ramky Infrastructure bags two work orders worth `2240.7Cr
Ramky Infrastructure has bagged two road projects from National Highways Authority of India (NHAI)
vide LOA dated November 30, 2011. The company has bagged the first order for six laning of Agra -
Etawah Bypass section of NH-2 from 199.7kms to 323.0kms under National Highways Development
Project (NHDP) Phase V in the State of Uttar Pradesh to be executed on BOT (Toll) on DBFOT
pattern. The concession period for the project is 30 years including the construction period of 30
months. The estimated cost of the project as per the client is `1207Cr. The company has bagged the
second order for four laning of Hospet - Chitradurga section of NH-13 from 299.0kms to 418.6kms in
the State of Karnataka under National Highways Development Project (NHDP) Phase III on DBFOT
basis in BOT (Toll). The concession period for the project is 25 years including the construction period
of 30 months. The estimated cost of the project as per the client is `1033.7Cr.
ONGC investing `25000Cr in 11 projects
The company is spending nearly `25000Cr for 11 projects. It has taken up the development of
marginal fields through 14 projects, out of which three projects have been completed. The company
entailed an investment of `27305Cr in the 14 projects. Of these three, `506Cr developments of D-1
field, `220Cr SB-11 development and `1688Cr investment in development of Vasai East in western
offshore, have been completed. However, another 11 projects entailing an investment of `24890Cr
are under various stages of investment. Among these 11 projects the biggest projects is B-193 cluster
development at the cost of `5633Cr, which will yield 5.57MMT of oil and 5.12bn cubic meters of gas in
15 years. The project is scheduled to be completed by June 2012. Besides, another `3241Cr is being
spent on Cluster-7 development by March 2013 to produced 9.73MMT of oil and 4.52bn cubic meters
of gas over a period of 16 years.
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7. K E Y N O T E
IT Industry Monitor
IT Industry and its contribution to Indian equities
IT sector has weightage of 10.24% and 10.34% in BSE 500 and CNX 500 with major stocks are
Infosys, TCS and Wipro. The sector is also represented through BSE IT and CNX IT indices. IT sector
companies also constitute major portion of Sensex and Nifty with weightages of 14.83% and 13.13%.
TCS targeting 1000 customers in SMB segment this year
TCS launched a first of its kind fully integrated information technology solution for Small and Medium
Business (SMB) segment. It is targeting to reach over 1000 customers in the segment nationally this
year. iON, TCS's strategic unit for small and medium business, presently has over 250 customers
who are experiencing the benefits of increased efficiencies, predictability of technology, talent on call
and an expanded customer based following the end-to-end integrated suite of cloud based business
solutions.
Infosys CEO sees 3rd Quarter sales close to low end of outlook.
Infosys expects its 3rd Quarter revenue growth closer to the lower end of its forecast. Mr. Shibulal
mentioned that the customers delay decisions on large contracts. Infosys had warned of dipping of
demand due to project delays in deteriorating environment and Economic uncertainties are slowing
down decisions. Infosys had forecast quarter-on-quarter revenue growth of 3.2% to 4.5% for the Oct-
Dec period. The company has backed its full-year dollar revenue growth view of 17.1% to 19.1%.
MphasiS is planning to use cash pile for buys
It has bought U.S based software vendor Wyde Corp nearly four months ago and its second
investment in the insurance sector. It is mentioned that the company wanted to move up the value
chain in terms of domain expertise.
Cost cuts at British Telecom to hurt TechM
Tech Mahindra continued to report a subdued performance for the fourth consecutive quarter ended
September 2011. Loss of business from its biggest client British Telecom (BT) and depleting
operating profit margin added to the woes of the country's fifth-largest software exporter.
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8. K E Y N O T E
Media Industry Monitor
Major listed Media & Entertainment companies included in BSE 500 and CNX 500 indices are Zee
Entertainment Enterprises, Dish TV India, Sun TV Network, Jagran Prakashan and UTV Software
Communications, while the sector's weight age is 0.78% in both the indices.
Bill introduced in Lok Sabha to make digitization in cable TV mandatory
The era of analog transmission in Indian cable television is on the way out with the government
introducing a Bill in the Lok Sabha to make changes in the Cable TV Networks (Regulation) Act
making digitization mandatory. The Bill, piloted by Information and Broadcasting Ministry, seeks to
digitize the cable sector in the country by December 31, 2014.
While the plan is for complete digitisation of cable television in the four metros by March 31, 2012, the
next target will be cities with over 10 lakh population. By the end of 2014, the entire country is
expected to have phased out analogue cable TV.
The bill will replace an Ordinance promulgated in October this year to amend the Act. Through the
ordinance a clause was inserted in the Cable TV Networks (Regulation) Act to make a digital
addressable system mandatory in the cable sector.
Reliance Capital hikes stake in Reliance MediaWorks to 18.42%
Reliance Capital has hiked stake in one of its promoter group entities, Reliance MediaWorks to
18.42% from 18.21% by acquiring additional shares worth `83.5 lakh. The promoter group firm bought
one lakh shares through open market purchase.
Reliance Broadcast in tie-up with Lucha Libre for content sharing
Reliance Broadcast Network (RBNL) has tied up with the USA's wrestling show producer Lucha Libre
for content sharing and is eyeing more partners for such tie-ups for its TV channels in India.
As a part of the arrangement with Lucha Libre, RBNL's English entertainment channel BIG CBS
Prime and regional channel BIG MAGIC will air the first season of the 'Masked Warriors', a freestyle
wrestling show
Dish TV got nod from FIPB to raise funds
The Foreign Investor Promotion Board (FIPB) recently gave Dish TV the nod to raise $200mn,
however, the company has not yet decided on how much money to raise or when to raise it.
Keynote Capitals Institutional Research 8

9. K E Y N O T E
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Keynote Capitals Institutional Research 9