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THE TELEVISION FUTURE
THE ELECTRONIC PAST• 1600 William Gilbert publishes “On The Magnet”coining “electrica”• 1660 Otto von Guericke invents sta...
THE BROADCAST PAST• 1831 Joseph Henry conducts first telegraphtransmission• 1833 First Mass Produced Penny PressNewspaper•...
THE “WIRELESS” PAST• 1888 Hertz transmits and detects“radio waves” experimentally• 1920 First US broadcasting stationestab...
THE TELEVISION PAST• 1923 NAB founded; Zworkin invents iconoscope• 1926 NBC founded• 1927 Congress passes first legislatio...
THE TELEVISION ERA• 1941 US enters WW2; all manufacturing devoted to wareffort• 1941 FCC adopts tech standards for B & W T...
THE COMPUTER ERA• Late 1960’s Defense Department’s Advanced Research ProjectsAgency develops computer communication networ...
THE INTERNET ERA• 1986 Fox established as 4th network• 1990 World Wide Web, multimedia branch of Internetintroduced• 1993 ...
THE WIRELESS PRESENT• 2005 YouTube launched• 2006 Twitter launched; YouTube bought byGoogle• 2007 iPhone introduced; Hulu ...
THE FUTURE NOW:FOUR SCREENS ARE BETTER THAN ONESTREAMING VS. BROADCASTSMART VS. DUMB TVSCHANNELS VS. PLATFORMSCHANNELS VS....
FUTURE NOW 2PROMOS VS. INTERACTIVITYTV GUIDE VS. SEARCHSCHEDULED PROGRAMMING VS. SOCIALRECOMMENDATIONSTUDIO PRODUCTION VS....
“GOOGLE’S FOLLY”• 2ND LARGEST GLOBAL SEARCH ENGINE• FEB 2009 1 BILLION VIEWS EVERY 1-2 MONTHS• TODAY 1 BILLION VIEWS DAILY...
“BROADCAST YOURSELF”• JAMAL EDWARDS SB.TV 144M CHANNEL VIEWS£200K IN REVENUES 2012• CHARLIE MCDONNEL 265M CHANNEL VIEWS 1....
THE YOUTUBE ANTI-MODEL• AT FIRST, NOT PEGGED TO BIZ MODEL:NO CHARGE, FINANCIAL REWARD FORCONTENT CREATION• LACK OF BARRIER...
PLATFORM VS. CHANNEL• TV DOMINANT MONOPOLY ON ATTENTION INLIVING ROOM MADE IT HARD FOR PEOPLE ININDUSTRY TO THINK AUDIENCE...
ENTER GOOGLE• PURCHASED FOR $1.65 BILLION IN 2006• WIRED: “YOU’D BE FORGIVEN FORWONDERING HOW CLEARLY GOOGLETHOUGHT THIS T...
THE WEB EFFECTTHE INTERNET HAS PERMANENTLY CHANGEDUSER BEHAVIOR AND CONSUMEREXPECTATIONS:• PERSONALIZATION• INTERACTIVITY•...
THE INTERACTIVE MODEL• ABILITY TO INTERACT WITH AUDIENCES KEYTO YT’S SUCCESS• INITIAL MODEL: BUILDING AUDIENCESAROUND NICH...
THE YT SOCIAL NETWORK• NO HARSH LINE BETWEEN CREATOR AND CONSUMER• POWERFUL NETWORK AROUND YT CREATORS• MANY CHANNELS HELP...
RESULTS OF FOLLY• $200M REVENUES IN 2008• SPENT $700M• GREATEST HITS: “BABY MONKEY (GOING BACKWARDS ON APIG)”• USERS DIDN’...
YOUTUBE TRENDS• CHANNELFLIP AGGREGATES 136 CHANNELS• 1.4 BILLION VIEWS• BASE79 LARGEST YT NETWORK IN EU VALUEDAT $30M• GLE...
MEET THE NEW BOSS?• THE CREATOR’S SPACE OPENED IN 2011• FIRST OF ITS KIND IN THE WORLD: EDITING SUITES,STAGE WITH CAMERARI...
THE THIRD WAVE OF TV• BBC WORLDWIDE’S DIGITAL REVENUE NOWACCOUNTS FOR 10% OVERALL TURNOVER• NEWSCORP SHINE BUYS CHANNEL FL...
THE FUTURE NOW• THOUSANDS OF CHANNELS ABLE TO FINDTHEIR AUDIENCE AND BUILD CONTENTSPECIFICALLY FOR THAT AUDIENCE• CABLE ON...
THE 800 TON GORRILLA• E!• Style• G4• NBC Sports• NBC• Syfy• USA• Bravo• CNBC• MSNBC26
800 TON MEDIA GORILLA 2• Adult Swim• Boomerang• Cartoon Network• truTV• TBS• TNT• TCM• CNN• HLN• HBO• Cinemax27
TV OR NOT TV• AVG US TV CONSUMPTION 5-7HRS DAILY• NIELSEN REPORTS TV VIEWING DOWN LAST 4YEARS• YT VIDEO VIEWS DECLINED 28%...
“REALITY” TV• $100M YT INVESTMENT IN CHANNELS = 40HOURS ORIGINAL PROGRAMMING INTRADITIONAL TV• NETFLIX “HOUSE OF CARDS” $1...
THE NETFLIX FACTOR• 30M SUBS IN 40 COUNTRIES• GROWN FROM 1K TITLES ON LAUNCH IN 2007 TO 2OOK• WITH 45K THAT CAN STREAM ON ...
TV’S LAWN• ONLINE BEHAVIORAL SHIFT FROM PC & LAPTOPS TO IPADS,MOBILE DEVICES AND THE LIVING ROOM• SHIFTS TO INCLUDE ORGANI...
NEW TV TOYS• TRANSPARENT, FOLDABLE SCREENS (LG OLED 55”)• MAGIC REMOTES WITH VOICE/GESTURE RECOGNITION• HIPPO• ZEEBOX• ROK...
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LINKS• WHAT IS SOCIAL?• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2011/03/what-is-social.html• TRUTH IN ADVERTISING AND TV’S “MAD ME...
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The Future of TV

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Presentation prepared for lecture at UCLA, Spring '13 with special thanks to Wired UK

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Transcript of "The Future of TV"

  1. 1. THE TELEVISION FUTURE
  2. 2. THE ELECTRONIC PAST• 1600 William Gilbert publishes “On The Magnet”coining “electrica”• 1660 Otto von Guericke invents static electricityproducing machine, first “generator”• 1729 Stephen Gray discovers principle ofconduction of electricity• 1733 du Fay discovers “positive” and “negative”forms of electricity• 1824 Joseph Henry invents first battery3
  3. 3. THE BROADCAST PAST• 1831 Joseph Henry conducts first telegraphtransmission• 1833 First Mass Produced Penny PressNewspaper• 1844 First National Telegraphy in US• 1866 Translatlantic Telegraph Service begins• 1873 Maxwell theorizes about electromagneticenergy• 1876 Bell patents Telephone• 1878 Edison Invents Phonograph• 1899 First US Vaudeville House4
  4. 4. THE “WIRELESS” PAST• 1888 Hertz transmits and detects“radio waves” experimentally• 1920 First US broadcasting stationestablished• 1922 WEAF sells air time for a“commercial message”5
  5. 5. THE TELEVISION PAST• 1923 NAB founded; Zworkin invents iconoscope• 1926 NBC founded• 1927 Congress passes first legislation specifically dealing with“broadcasting”• 1928 Columbia Broadcast System founded• 1930 NBC establishes nightly radio newscasts• 1933 FDR broadcasts “Fireside Chats”; Armstrong patents FM radiotechnology• 1934 Congress passes Communications Act; Mutual Broadcasting Systemfounded• 1938 Orson Welles panics nation with Halloween broadcast on CBS• 1939 Edward R. Murrow broadcasts reports from London beingbombarded;David Sarnoff demos RCAs TV System at NY World’s Fair6
  6. 6. THE TELEVISION ERA• 1941 US enters WW2; all manufacturing devoted to wareffort• 1941 FCC adopts tech standards for B & W TV• 1945 NBC sells Blue Network creating ABC• 1947 Mobile phone base stations used by law enforcement• 1948 FCC places freeze on new TV licenses until 1952• 1953 FCC adopts tech standards for color TV• 1956 Ampex Corp introduces videotape recorder• 1957 Russians launch first satellite• 1961 FCC adopts standards for stereo FM broadcast• 1962 Congress requires all TVs to have VHF/UHF tuners7
  7. 7. THE COMPUTER ERA• Late 1960’s Defense Department’s Advanced Research ProjectsAgency develops computer communication networkamong university-based researchers• 1969 Computerized switch used called Interface MessageProcessor at UCLA• 1973 First mobile phone call placed in NYC• 1975 Home video recorders come on the market; HBO beginsatellite distributed programming• 1976 First Apple Computer invented and introduced• 1981 IBM introduces personal computer; Epson introduces firstlaptop• 1984 Apple MacIntosh invented, first home computer with mouse8
  8. 8. THE INTERNET ERA• 1986 Fox established as 4th network• 1990 World Wide Web, multimedia branch of Internetintroduced• 1993 Mosaic browser, forerunner of Netscape introduced• 1996 FCC mandates conversion to digital broadcast by2004• 1997 Netflix founded• 1999 Napster launched• 2001 iPod introduced• 2004 Janet Jackson’s “wardrobe malfunction” leads tostiffer indecency enforcement; Facebook launched9
  9. 9. THE WIRELESS PRESENT• 2005 YouTube launched• 2006 Twitter launched; YouTube bought byGoogle• 2007 iPhone introduced; Hulu founded• 2009 Conversion from analog to digitalbroadcasts• 2010 iPad introduced• 2011 Social Media plays role in Arab Spring;SOPA introduced in Congress• 2012 Mobile TV Apps proliverate; LG OLED screenintroduced at CES10
  10. 10. THE FUTURE NOW:FOUR SCREENS ARE BETTER THAN ONESTREAMING VS. BROADCASTSMART VS. DUMB TVSCHANNELS VS. PLATFORMSCHANNELS VS. THE BACKCHANNELVIEWING VS. COVIEWINGFREE BROADCAST VS. SUBSCRIPTIONVOD VS. DAYPART SCHEDULING11
  11. 11. FUTURE NOW 2PROMOS VS. INTERACTIVITYTV GUIDE VS. SEARCHSCHEDULED PROGRAMMING VS. SOCIALRECOMMENDATIONSTUDIO PRODUCTION VS. UGCLONG-FORM VS. SHORTFORMCOMMERCIAL PODS VS. TRUEVIEWVIDEO VIEWS VS. WATCH TIME12
  12. 12. “GOOGLE’S FOLLY”• 2ND LARGEST GLOBAL SEARCH ENGINE• FEB 2009 1 BILLION VIEWS EVERY 1-2 MONTHS• TODAY 1 BILLION VIEWS DAILY• 800 MILLION VISITORS MONTHLY• 72 HOURS NEW VIDEO UPLOADED PER MIN• $29 BILLION GROSS REVENUES 2012• 1K YT “PRODUCERS” EARNING AT LEAST $100K PERYEAR FROM ADS• 1M YT USERS EARNING $ FROM VIDEOS—GREATERNUMBER THAN ARE EMPLOYED IN US TELEVISIONINDUSTRY13
  13. 13. “BROADCAST YOURSELF”• JAMAL EDWARDS SB.TV 144M CHANNEL VIEWS£200K IN REVENUES 2012• CHARLIE MCDONNEL 265M CHANNEL VIEWS 1.6MILLION SUBS• ALEX DAY 500K PAID DOWNLOADS• TANYA BURR 54M VIEWS SIGNED BY YT TALENTAGENCY• TOM RIDGEWELL 55M VIEWS £3500-7000/MO• LUKE HOOD UKF BASS CULTURE 250K ALBUMSSOLD14
  14. 14. THE YOUTUBE ANTI-MODEL• AT FIRST, NOT PEGGED TO BIZ MODEL:NO CHARGE, FINANCIAL REWARD FORCONTENT CREATION• LACK OF BARRIERS TO PARTICIPATION,VIEWING• YIELDED DISCOVERY OF NEW PATTERNS OFATTENTION AMONG AUDIENCE BEHAVIORRATHER THAN BUSINESS POLICY15
  15. 15. PLATFORM VS. CHANNEL• TV DOMINANT MONOPOLY ON ATTENTION INLIVING ROOM MADE IT HARD FOR PEOPLE ININDUSTRY TO THINK AUDIENCES WANTED TOCONSUME CONTENT IN A DIFFERENT WAY• PLATFORM DOES NOT MAKE ANYASSUMPTIONS ABOUT HOW PEOPLE AREGOING TO USE IT16
  16. 16. ENTER GOOGLE• PURCHASED FOR $1.65 BILLION IN 2006• WIRED: “YOU’D BE FORGIVEN FORWONDERING HOW CLEARLY GOOGLETHOUGHT THIS THING THROUGH.”• GLOBALIZED PLATFORM• MEANT THAT NICHE TOPICS WHICH COULDNEVER JUSTIFY CHANNEL IN SINGLEDOMESTIC MARKET NOW COULD HAVEGLOBAL REACH17
  17. 17. THE WEB EFFECTTHE INTERNET HAS PERMANENTLY CHANGEDUSER BEHAVIOR AND CONSUMEREXPECTATIONS:• PERSONALIZATION• INTERACTIVITY• IMMEDIACY• COMMUNITY18
  18. 18. THE INTERACTIVE MODEL• ABILITY TO INTERACT WITH AUDIENCES KEYTO YT’S SUCCESS• INITIAL MODEL: BUILDING AUDIENCESAROUND NICHES WHETHER DUBSTEP ORMAKEUP• THE AUDIENCE TURNS INTO USERS• USERS TURNED INTO CREATORS19
  19. 19. THE YT SOCIAL NETWORK• NO HARSH LINE BETWEEN CREATOR AND CONSUMER• POWERFUL NETWORK AROUND YT CREATORS• MANY CHANNELS HELPING EACH OTHER TO GET OFFTHE GROUND• “WHEN ME AND CHARLIE STARTED, WE WEREN’TDOING IT FOR THE MONEY”• “IT’S ONE PERSON IN FRONT OF A CAMERA, MAKING AREALLY HONEST CONNECTION”• NOW THE LARGEST AUDIO VISUAL CHANNEL INHISTORY20
  20. 20. RESULTS OF FOLLY• $200M REVENUES IN 2008• SPENT $700M• GREATEST HITS: “BABY MONKEY (GOING BACKWARDS ON APIG)”• USERS DIDN’T LIKE CLICKING ON ADS• ROLLS OUT TRUEVIEW IN 201O BASED ON SUPER BOWL ADREPLAYS• NOW 65% YT ADS SKIPPABLE• CPM OFTEN MORE THAN $15 WHICH IS 2-3X STANDARDRATE FOR NON-SKIPPABLE• YT’S HEAD OF GLOBAL CONTENT SAYS THAT YT ADS NOWMAKE MORE REVENUE PER HOUR THAN US CABLE TV21
  21. 21. YOUTUBE TRENDS• CHANNELFLIP AGGREGATES 136 CHANNELS• 1.4 BILLION VIEWS• BASE79 LARGEST YT NETWORK IN EU VALUEDAT $30M• GLEAM DIGITAL TALENT AGENCY FOR SOCIALMEDIA STARS “TV AGENTS WOULD LAUGH,BUT IN TWO YEARS’ TIME IT’S GOING TO BE ADIFFERENT LANDSCAPE. YT TALENT WILL BEWAY MORE INFLUENTIAL”22
  22. 22. MEET THE NEW BOSS?• THE CREATOR’S SPACE OPENED IN 2011• FIRST OF ITS KIND IN THE WORLD: EDITING SUITES,STAGE WITH CAMERARIGS, LIGHTING, VO BOOTHS,GREEN ROOM FOR SPECIAL EFFECTS• NEXT LAB DEVELOPS NEW TALENT• ORIGINAL CHANNELS ANNOUNCED IN 2011 WITH$100M INVESTMENT IN 100 NEW CHANNELS(MADONNA, JAY-Z)• EXPANDED IN EUROPE 2012 WITH ANOTHER 60CHANNELS• IN ADDITION TO GLEAM & CHANNELFLIP NOW BBCWORLDWIDE, ITN PRODUCTIONS23
  23. 23. THE THIRD WAVE OF TV• BBC WORLDWIDE’S DIGITAL REVENUE NOWACCOUNTS FOR 10% OVERALL TURNOVER• NEWSCORP SHINE BUYS CHANNEL FLIP FOR£415M• CHANNELIZATION• SUBSCRIPTION MODEL OR PPV?• STREAMING• SEARCH AND SOCIAL CURATION• TV EVERYWHERE: THE FOUR SCREENS24
  24. 24. THE FUTURE NOW• THOUSANDS OF CHANNELS ABLE TO FINDTHEIR AUDIENCE AND BUILD CONTENTSPECIFICALLY FOR THAT AUDIENCE• CABLE ON AFTERBURNER/STEROIDS?• PROJECT HITCHHIKER YT REDESIGN EMPHASISON CHANNELS• VIDEO RANKING/ALGORITHMS CHANGED TOREWARD VIEWING NOT CLICKS25
  25. 25. THE 800 TON GORRILLA• E!• Style• G4• NBC Sports• NBC• Syfy• USA• Bravo• CNBC• MSNBC26
  26. 26. 800 TON MEDIA GORILLA 2• Adult Swim• Boomerang• Cartoon Network• truTV• TBS• TNT• TCM• CNN• HLN• HBO• Cinemax27
  27. 27. TV OR NOT TV• AVG US TV CONSUMPTION 5-7HRS DAILY• NIELSEN REPORTS TV VIEWING DOWN LAST 4YEARS• YT VIDEO VIEWS DECLINED 28% IN 2012• AT SAME TIME, USERS SPENT 61 BILLIONMINUTES VIEWING VIDEOS INCREASE 57%• ONLINE TV VIEWING HAS GROWN• 40% VIEWERS NOW USE MOBILE/CO-VIEWING ATSAME TIME28
  28. 28. “REALITY” TV• $100M YT INVESTMENT IN CHANNELS = 40HOURS ORIGINAL PROGRAMMING INTRADITIONAL TV• NETFLIX “HOUSE OF CARDS” $100M + BUDGET• NETFLIX, HULU PLUS, AMAZON PRIME = $7.99• HOW MANY SERIES CAN BE PRODUCED ON ANALL YOU CAN EAT SUB MODEL?• WHAT IF ESPN (WHICH COSTS CABLE PROVIDER$4.69 MONTH) BECOMES A CHANNEL?• CONSUMERS ALREADY DEMAND A LA CARTE29
  29. 29. THE NETFLIX FACTOR• 30M SUBS IN 40 COUNTRIES• GROWN FROM 1K TITLES ON LAUNCH IN 2007 TO 2OOK• WITH 45K THAT CAN STREAM ON MORE THAN 700 DEVICES• REPLACED ITUNES AS TOP US ONLINE SELLER OFMOVIES/TV SHOWS WITH 44% OF TOTAL ONLINE FILM BIZTO APPLE’S 32%• SUBSCRIBERS ACCOUNT FOR 35% EVENING INTERNETBANDWIDTH—LARGEST SOURCE OF OVERALL WEB TRAFFIC• YT 25% BITTORRENT 30%• US POSTAL SERVICE’S LARGEST CUSTOMER30
  30. 30. TV’S LAWN• ONLINE BEHAVIORAL SHIFT FROM PC & LAPTOPS TO IPADS,MOBILE DEVICES AND THE LIVING ROOM• SHIFTS TO INCLUDE ORGANIC SEARCH OR SOCIALRECOMMENDATIONS• APPLE TV COMING, AMAZON FOCUS ON CONTENTDELIVERY SYSTEMS• XBOX IN 60M HOMES• WORLDWIDE BROADBAND PASSING 50%• WHEN YOU SWITCH ON YOUR TV AND SEE YOURSUBSCRIPTIONS TO CHANNELS OR A SEARCH BOX OR WHATFRIENDS ARE WATCHING—THE 3 WAYS PEOPLE NOW USEYOUTUBE• WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT ON POSITION OF TRADITIONALBROADCASTERS?31
  31. 31. NEW TV TOYS• TRANSPARENT, FOLDABLE SCREENS (LG OLED 55”)• MAGIC REMOTES WITH VOICE/GESTURE RECOGNITION• HIPPO• ZEEBOX• ROKU• TV PLUS• BOXEE• HBOGO• ABC APP• VIGGLE32
  32. 32. 33
  33. 33. 34
  34. 34. 35
  35. 35. 36
  36. 36. LINKS• WHAT IS SOCIAL?• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2011/03/what-is-social.html• TRUTH IN ADVERTISING AND TV’S “MAD MEN”:• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2010/10/mad-mens-don-draper-nowhere-man-in.html• CURATION AND THE FUTURE OF SEARCH:• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2010/09/death-by-data.html• KEY TRANSFORMATIONS IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR:• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2010/02/what-has-changed-key-transformers-in.html• GENERATION SLANG:• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2009/06/its-like-truly-awesome-dude.html• CHANGES IN MUSIC DISCOVERY:• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2009/05/my-first-record.html• THE SHORT-FORM VIDEO REVOLUTION:• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2009/03/its-short-form-video-world-after-all.html• THE SOCIAL MEDIA EFFECT:• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2009/02/social-media-small-and-big.html• PERSONALIZATION: PRO AND CON:• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2009/02/is-personalization-really-personal.html• HOW THE WEB TRANFORMS TIME:• http://tribalmedia.blogspot.com/2009/02/why-web-is-time-machine.html37
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