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The Energiewende - A Social Contract for the German Energy Future
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  • 1. Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies IASS in Potsdam The Energiewende – A Social Contract for the German Energy Future Dr. Petri Hakkarainen Senior Fellow IASS PotsdamInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 2. The German Energy Transition in a Nutshell Along history …  The concept “Energiewende” was first coined already in 1980 (Öko-Institut)  Two main elements: exit from nuclear power, entry into renewable energies  A feed-in tariff system for renewables first introduced in 1991  Government decisions in 2000-2002: nuclear phase-out extending into the 2020s and introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)  New energy concept under the current government in September 2010: extension of nuclear operating times combined with ambitious goals for emission reduction, share of renewables and energy efficiency … and a recent shock  Immediate shutdown of the oldest nuclear power plants and appointment of an Ethics Commission for a safe energy supply after the Fukushima shock in March 2011  Final report of the Ethics Commission in May 2011, government decision on “The Energiewende” in June 2011: nuclear exit by 2022  Other targets of the 2010 energy concept remain, e.g. share of renewables by 2050: 60 % of energy consumed, 80 % of electricity producedInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 3. The Road to the First German Nuclear Exit A strong anti-nuclear public sentiment for decades  Peace movement increasingly against nuclear weapons from the late 1970s  Nuclear accidents in Three Mile Island 1979, Chernobyl 1986  Neckarwestheim 2 in 1989 – the last new nuclear power plant to start running in Germany The Red-Green government 1998-2005  Agreement with the industry in 2000, leading to a change in legislation in 2002: nuclear phase-out based on electricity amounts of an average lifetime of 32 years per power plant  Simultaneous introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG)Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 4. … and an Exit from the Exit from the Exit Grand Coalition government of Chancellor Merkel 2005-2009  Agreement to disagree on the phase-out between the coalition partners Black-Yellow government of Chancellor Merkel from 2009  Autumn 2010: Extension of operating times of nuclear power plants by 8 to 14 years, combined with an ambitious energy concept where nuclear power figures as a “bridge technology” to the future  Spring 2011: the Fukushima shock, immediate shutdown of the oldest nuclear power plants in Germany and the appointment of an Ethics Commission for a safe energy supply  Final report of the Ethics Commission in May 2011 and amendment of the Atomic Energy Act in the summer: an accelerated phase-out ending in 2022 Federal election in the autumn 2013  Other elements of the Energiewende hotly debated, but a very broad consensus supporting the nuclear exit – a further nuclear U-turn not to be expectedInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 5. Geography and Timetable of the Nuclear Exit Eight of the seventeen nuclear power plants were permanently shut down in 2011 (marked in red) The remaining nine power plants will be phased out gradually  Grafenrheinfeld in 2015  Gundremmingen B in 2017  Philippsburg 2 in 2019  Grohnde, Brokdorf and Gundremmingen C in 2021  Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2 and Emsland in 2022 Source for map: stepmap.deInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 6. The Energiewende as a Collective Effort The Energiewende is more than just a nuclear exit: a complete transformation of the energy system of a highly industrialized country An extensive legislative package with ambitious targets for the coming decades  Greenhouse gas emissions: 2020 -40%, 2050 -80% (reference year 1990)  Renewables 2050: 60% of energy consumed, 80% of electricity produced  Consumption 2050: primary energy -50%, electricity -25 % (ref. 2008) All three corners of the energy triangle need to be taken into account: security of supply, competitiveness and environmental sustainability The Ethics Commission: “the energy transition will only succeed through a collective effort spanning all levels of politics, business and society” (in German: “Gemeinschaftswerk”) “The era of renewable energies and energy efficiency” - major opportunities and challenges involvedInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 7. The German Electricity Mix in 2011 Hard coal 19 % Nuclear 18 % Renewables 20 % Natural gas 14 % Heating oil, pump Lignite 25 % storage etc. 5 % Source: BMWiInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 8. Renewables Target: From 20/80 to 80/20 by 2050 Others combined 20 % Renewables 80 %Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 9. Scenarios for the Future Electricity Generation Source: BMU-DLR-IWES-IfnE (2012)Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 10. Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) Feed-in tariffs existed already in the early 1990s, but the genuine success story of the renewables began with the introduction of the EEG in 2000  Feed-in tariff system guarantees preferential grid access for renewable electricity and a price fixed for the next 20 years  Share of renewables in the electricity mix has been tripled in ten years: from 6,7 % in 2001 to 20 % in 2011  In the first half of 2012 renewables already accounted for 25 % of electricity consumption – expansion is ahead of schedule A lively debate about the future of the EEG is currently going on in Germany  Distribution of the expanding costs of the system between consumers and industry – exemptions of the EEG surcharge (“EEG-Umlage”)  Cap of installed capacity for PV solar now set at 52 GW, tariff and degression-rate adjustments across the board  Expansion of offshore wind: funding and accountability  How to make renewables competitive and market-compatible?Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 11. Rapid Expansion of Renewables in the Past 10 Years Source: BMUInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 12. Towards a New Electricity Market Design With the rising share of renewables, an energy-only market is approaching its limits  With their marginal costs close to zero, renewables push conventional capacities out of the merit order at the wholesale market  Increased volatility due to the fluctuating character of wind and solar power  Introduction of flexibility as a new economic value The debate about a new market design is under way  Market integration of renewables and a reform of the EEG – when and how?  The role of the conventional power plants – capacity markets or strategic reserves?  Aggressive campaign for a quota model to replace feed-in system  Separate solutions or convergence? The European context: market design needs to be compatible with the internal market of the European UnionInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 13. New Requirements for the Infrastructure The Energiewende requires a thorough transformation of the grid infrastructure Linking expanded wind supply in the North to the demand in the West and the South: 3800 km of new transmission lines needed Increasingly decentralized production also sets new demands for the distribution grid Introduction of smart grids and smart meters, demand side management, storage options, electric vehicles etc. The building sector accounts for 40 % of total energy consumption: a key role in improving energy efficiency Source: BundesnetzagenturInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 14. Energy Prices and Public Acceptance Source: BMUInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 15. “Future Made in Germany”? In spite of the evident challenges, the Energiewende holds enormous potential for the future  Sustainability and climate protection  Decoupling of emissions and growth – if one of the leading economies in the world succeeds in this, others are more likely to follow  A leading role in the growing global market of energy and environmental technologies  Job creation at home: by some estimates already over 380.000 people in Germany working in the renewables sector  Reduced dependency of energy imports  Decentralization enhancing public participation in energy policyInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 16. Research and Development for the Energiewende The sixth energy research program of the Federal Government  3,5 billion Euros for R&D on sustainable energy technologies in 2011-14  Funding from the federal budget and from the “Energy and Climate Fund”  Main priorities: energy efficiency, renewables, energy storage, grid technology, fusion technology and nuclear safety  Improvements in international research cooperation A key role of the traditional scientific research institutions of Germany (Fraunhofer, Leibniz, Max Planck and Helmholtz) IASS Potsdam a new actor in the field, relevant with all its research clusters  Global Contract for Sustainability  Earth, Energy and the Environment  Sustainable Interactions with the Atmosphere  Enabling Technologies for SustainabilityInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 17. Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Inspired by the 2007 Nobel Laureate Symposium “Global Sustainability – A Nobel Cause” held in Potsdam International, interdisciplinary and networked research on sustainability More than 70 researchers, fellows and project managers from renowned research institutions Contacts to high-level scientific communities as well as to politics, NGOs and media in Berlin Ranked No 1 among the “best new think tanks, established in the last 18 months” in 2010 by University of PennsylvaniaInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 18. Vision and Mission of the IASSVision An independent, international research institute and think tank Serves as knowledge hub and broker for international high-level experts from science, politics and society Focuses on sustainable development projects in a highly transdisciplinary environment Links its activities to strategic dialogue with policy makers, civil society, the business sector and the mediaMission• Applying a transdisciplinary approach in making outstanding contributions to scientific progress• Developing innovative ideas on sustainability challenges and how solutions could best be implemented across regions and sectors in open democratic societies• Functioning as a hub for strategic dialogue between researchers, policy makers, businesses and societyInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 19. Transdisciplinary Panel on Energy Change (TPEC) Launched in March 2012 as part of the IASS Cluster “Global Contract for Sustainability”, taking on the suggestions of the Ethics CommissionInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 20. Transdisciplinary Panel on Energy Change (TPEC) Main tasks  Providing independent scientific guidance of the Energiewende  Facilitating an objective discourse about the transition  Bringing together stakeholders from all sectors of society Various formats  Public hearings  Thematic working groups (current priority topics “RES”, “CO2” and “Social”)  Workshops and own research  “TPEC Bilaterals” with neighboring countries  First annual report in 2013 A transdisciplinary team  Academic backgrounds in engineering, physics, law, history, political science, sociology etc.  Joint work experience spans from research and science to diplomacy, consulting and managementInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 21. Contact Dr. Petri Hakkarainen Senior Fellow petri.hakkarainen@iass-potsdam.de Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Berliner Straße 130 D – 14467 Potsdam Web: www.iass-potsdam.deInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 22. Rapid Expansion of Energy CooperativesInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012
  • 23. Real Costs of Energy CarriersInstitute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. Sitra Sustainable Economy Forum, 7 November 2012