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Theories on population
 

Theories on population

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    Theories on population Theories on population Presentation Transcript

    • Population
    • Optimum population
      This is said to be achieved when the number of people working with all the available resources, produces the highest capital economic return. Resulting in the highest standard of living and quality of life.
    • Overpopulation
      This is said to occur, when there are too many people relative to the resources and technology available in an area, to maintain an adequate standard of living.
    • Underpopulation
      This occurrence is said to be when there are far more resources in an area i.e. food production, energy, and minerals, than can be made use of by the people living there.
    • Theories on Population
    • Lived from 1776- 1834
      He wrote “ An essay on the principle of population” in 1798
      It was quite revolutionary and controversial in his time
      His essay if often times described as pessimistic and barbaric, as it predicted nothing short of a catastrophe for the human race.
      Thomas Malthus
    • Malthus’s theory explained
    • Crucial point of Malthus’s theory
      Malthus‘s theory was based on the assumption that the power of population is much greater than the power of the earth to provide subsistence for man.
      Meaning, he believed that the population would soon surpass it’s food supply.
      This, in his belief, could only lead to disease, high infant mortality, famine, starvation, and war.
      Checks were then necessary to prevent this.
    • Population, if left unchecked, will grow geometrically:
      1,2, 4, 8,16,32
      Whereas food supply increasesarithmeticallyas the amount of land is finite:
      1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6
      Malthus stated that:
    • there would be a Malthusian catastrophe:
      And therefore he said …
      Population
      Food supply
      At the point where population reaches its limit of food supply there will be war, famine and disease.
      Food supply
      Population
      Time
    • Preventative and Positive checks
      Preventative Checks:
      Positive Checks:
      Infanticide
      Abortion
      Delays in marriage
      Strict celibacy
      Which all would lower the fertility rate
      War
      Disease
      Famine
      Which would increase the mortality rate and reduce life expectancy
    • Was Malthus Right?
      Did his rather gloomy theory have any basis in truth? Critics argue that Malthus did not foresee the advancements mankind has made in technology and agriculture. So is his theory relevant to today’s society?
    • Malthus’s Theory Applied
      Developing country
      Uganda…
    • Current population: 32,369,558 people
      Population growth rate : 2.69%
      Population structure: 14 years and younger: 50% 15-64 years: 47.9% 65 years and over: 2.1%
       Birth rate
      47.84 births/1,000 population
      Death rate
      12.09 deaths/1,000 population
      Uganda
    • The country is rampant with disease, such as: Hepatitis A, typhoid fever, and malaria.
      There are little less than 1 million people living with HIVAIDS in Uganda, and 77,000 died from it in 2007.
      Life expectancy is lower than 55 years for both males and females.
      The people depend on agriculture, but the country is landlocked and has 241,038 km2 to it’s credit. When will this cease to be enough?
      35% of the population lives below the poverty line.
      Uganda cont’d…
    • With the relatively high growth rate of 2.69%, and 35% of the population living in poverty, leading to famine, and diseases of all kind in the country of Uganda, can Thomas Malthus’s theory be agreed with?
      He predicted disasters and ill fate if population growth surpassed food supply. Is Uganda not on that very dark path?
      Uganda cont’d…
    • Malthus’s Theory applied
      Developed country
      China…
    • Current population: 1,338,612,968 people
      Population growth rate:0.655%
      Age structure:
      0-14 years: 19.8%
      15-64 years: 72.1%
      65 years and over: 8.1%
      Birth rate:
      14 births/1,000 population
      Death rate:
      7.06 deaths/1,000 population
      China
    • The infant mortality rate is 20.25 deaths/1,000 live births
      Life expectancy rate for males is 71.61 years and for females it stands at 75.52 years
      There are 700,000 people living with HIVAIDS, however only 39,000 people died from it in the year 2007.
      Only a few other diseases plague the country and the threat is minimal.
      The country is multifaceted and has one of the best economies in the world.
      As such only 2.8% of the population lives below the poverty line.
      China cont’d…
    • With the largest population is the world, only 2.8% live below the poverty line. Diseases are not widespread and the few are treated effectively. There are no major wars, or famine, and the economy is booming.
      Was Malthus wrong then? One would think that with one of the largest population food supplies would be strained.
      Could China’s prosperity be related to another theory?
      China cont’d…
    • Born 1910-1999
      Wrote “The conditions of agricultural growth” in 1965
      It opposed Malthus’s views on the matter of population.
      It is also viewed as a more optimistic approach to the issue of population growth
      Esther Boserup
    • When population growth finds us pressed for food, people find ways to get more food production out of the land. They cultivate the land more intensively, they add extra manure, extra water and improve their crops.
      They invent their way out of the Malthusian crisis.
      Indeed, the Malthusian trap may even have driven the development of technology.
      She believed that a growth in population would stimulate a growth in agriculture and technology.
      Crucial points of Boserup’s theory
    • Malthus and Boserup
      A Comparison
    • A Comparison
      Malthus believed:
      Boserup believed:
      Food supply limits population size
      Population growth would soon outstrip food supply.
      This would lead to famine, war, and disease.
      Preventative and positive checks would be needed.
      With a growth in population people would find new ways of acquiring food.
      This would lead to technological and agricultural advances.
      There would be no need to reduce population size.
    • If Boserup was right, then the most technologically advanced places would be the ones closest to a Malthusian crisis. This is not so. As the places with the larger populations and near starving people, have low tech agriculture.
      If Malthus was right, places with large populations that are still increasing, will eventually surpass their food supply and become famine and war stricken. Or would have already done so.
      A Comparison cont’d….
    • The winner is...
    • You don't have to choose between Boserup and Malthus. They can both be right.
      Malthus is talking about the potential for a population to face limiting factors.
      Boserup is talking about overcoming those limits through cultural and technological advancement.