Traffic pollution, climate change and restricting car use

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Prof Margaret Bell CBE (Newcastle University) http://www.ncl.ac.uk/transport/people/profile/margaret.bell speaking at Acorn Road group meeting 18 July 2013

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  • The environmental impact from road traffic covers many aspects:Air pollutionNoiseSafetyVisual intrusionSeveranceMy focus in this presentation is on vehicle tailpipe emissions and air quality, and the potential for traffic control systems to facilitate improvements.
  • Traffic pollution, climate change and restricting car use

    1. 1. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Traffic related pollution: Our progress managing air quality and carbon emissions Professor Margaret Bell CBE Newcastle University, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Transport Operations Research Group
    2. 2. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle This Presentation • Local Authority Responsibilities • History and health impacts • Effect of driver behaviour on emissions • Carbon Emissions: How are we doing? • Effect of tailpipe emissions on roadside concentrations • Background versus roadside monitoring • Some Solutions? • The Challenge • The Future • Summary But………………….
    3. 3. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Responsibilities Binding targets: 67% reduction eCO2 by 2050 over 2010 Meet Air Quality Objectives - Nitrogen Dioxide and PM10 Health: 50,000 deaths brought forward in 2010 due to poor air quality Accidents: In UK 1870 fatal accidents in 2010 Congestion: • Damaging the economy • Major source emissions, • Destroying planet, • Reducing life expectancy and
    4. 4. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle History and Health Impacts
    5. 5. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle London Smog • 4th December 1952 for 5 days • 4,000 deaths • Anti cyclone over London, wind dropped, air damp, thick fog • Air dark, tinged yellow, smelled of rotten eggs • Sulphur and other toxins from coal fires • BBC 5th December 2002 Reported – 12,000 Deaths – Chronic respiratory cardiovascular complaints – Mortality from bronchitis and pneumonia increased >7 fold
    6. 6. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle London Smog
    7. 7. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle People and animals wore face masks
    8. 8. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Problems Today • Smoke and sulphur dioxide pollution in cities is much lower than in the past • BUT rapid growth of transport in the last 20 years has resulted in a different kind of pollution in urban areas • Nowadays Photochemical Smogs build up during warm sunny days in summer, when air pollutants are trapped at ground level • Experienced in Europe and Los Angeles for many years due to climate • UK Government responded imposing standards and tasking LA to establish Air Quality Management Areas
    9. 9. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Traffic and Environmental Impacts Source: The effects of emerging vehicle technologies on certain vehicle emissions not currently regulated (DfT 2006)
    10. 10. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Pollutants sources • CO (poor combustion of carbon fuel • NO2 (motor vehicles, combustion) • SO2 (combustion, power stations) • PM10 (diesel and combustion) • HC benzene, butadiene (petrol) • O3 (secondary from sunlight on NOx and VOCS) • Pb (Industry - removed from petrol)
    11. 11. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Cycling and walking: Win – Win for Health
    12. 12. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Effect of Driver Behaviour on Emissions
    13. 13. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Characterising UK vehicle emissions Chassis dynamometer (e.g. Bath University) Highly Instrumented vehicle (e.g. Leeds and Southampton University UK
    14. 14. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle RETEMM (Real-world Traffic Emissions Monitoring and Modelling) Project funded by UK EPSRC at Leeds University 40 drivers (20 male, 20 female) Ages 21-63 years 10 loops of the same 0.6km circuit Data collection
    15. 15. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle (a) Carbon dioxide (b) Hydrocarbons (c) Oxides of Nitrogen Driver 7 ` Driver 31 Over revving and Sloppy Gear changing is more polluting Engine Speed versus Vehicle Speed
    16. 16. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Real-World Network Driving Emissions: Petrol 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 NOx (g/km) HC (g/km) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 EURO0 EURO1 EURO2 EURO3 EURO4 NOX-HC Aromatic & Olefin are predominant HC in O3 formation. Not meeting targets Ozone forming potential increasing Diesel mainly emit NOx and Particulates More efficient engines burned PM10 to PM2.5 Increase in NH3 Daham (2006), Li et al (2006)
    17. 17. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Carbon Emissions- How are we doing?
    18. 18. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Carbon Emissions How are we doing? 2013 20501990 ? 80% of 1990 2010 …. 1998 20111987 2 Regions 600 links 900 links SCOOT Leicester SCOOT database 20... Model change in UK Fleet emissions over time Flow and Congestion 2050 67% of 1990 2005
    19. 19. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Carbon Emissions 1998-2011 • Traditional emission models - reduction in 2008 of about 10% over 1998 • Complex congestion related emission model - increase of about 3% over 1998 data • After the recession the complex congestion related emission model – recession fall of 5% over 1998.
    20. 20. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Effect of tailpipe emissions on roadside concentrations
    21. 21. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Air Quality Monitoring AURN Cabin
    22. 22. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Archive Data Analysis: AURN – Newcastle Regeneration Filters Primary NO2 increases Euro 3 Diesels Reduce VKT and promote public transport
    23. 23. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Engine Technologies In reducing primary NO Fitted TRAPS Regenerate particle filters BUT Fine Particulates increased Secondary NO2 dropped Exacerbated Air Quality Rhys-Tyler GA, Legassick W, Bell MC (2011). Increased primary NO2
    24. 24. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Futures Project - London (Black Cabs) – NO / Smoke Particle Traps fitted - elevated emissions NO2 FUTURES project 55,000 tailpipe emissions
    25. 25. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle London - NO2 g/m3 Marylebone (outside RUC) Westminister (inside RUC) NO2 Oct 97 – Oct 11 NO2 July 01 – Oct 11 Level and Duration increased since ~2005 g/m3g/m3
    26. 26. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Background versus roadside monitoring
    27. 27. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Novel Pervasive Monitoring Gateway Mote 27
    28. 28. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Understanding Air Quality
    29. 29. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle BUS STATION Provides evidence of the causes of the pollution problems METRO STATION OPEN SPACE
    30. 30. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle AQMA in Newcastle Area AQMA corridor Canyon: Prevailing wind westerly Regent Centre Commuter traffic; School Run; High Bus Frequency; Pedestrian Activity What can we do?
    31. 31. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle BUS STATION METRO STATION AQMA Newcastle Centre Pedestrian Activity High Bus flows and bus stops High Bus flows into Haymarket Bus Station
    32. 32. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Bus-Bus Hub • 0. Current Transport network for Gosforth • 1. Bus hub - reduced number buses replaced with electric • 2. Bus hub ditto with 10% modal shift 07:30- 08:45 • 3. Bus hub ditto with 20% modal shift 07:30 – 08:45
    33. 33. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Carbon Savings -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Percentagedifferences betweenscenarios Scenarios CO2 NOx VOC PM 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5 20 20.5 21 21.5 22 Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 AverageSpeed(km/h) Average Speed comparisons between scenarios Only 25% contribution against 67% reduction in level over 2010 needed by 2050 Over 4.2km saving of 1minute over a journey of 8.3minutes Air Quality problem partially addressed
    34. 34. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle The Challenge
    35. 35. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle CO2 Emissions – Annual Household Travel and Energy Use Gas Annual emissions equivalent CO2 Electricity Travel 575 Households 1527 individuals Energy used in home is 70% higher than saved not using car work Respondent 50% gross emitters responsible for 96% travel; 60% household energy together 67% reduction at 2010 Gas
    36. 36. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle The Future…..
    37. 37. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle SECURE: Cycle of Living Need to understand Inefficiencies TRANSPORT-Supports every aspect of Living ‘Energy conservation’ policies – Resource Supply Waste Demand? • Food Miles • Household kerbside Recycling • Anaerobic Digestion human waste • Biomass • School policies • etc Gas
    38. 38. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Summary
    39. 39. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Summary • Scientific Evidence – Not meeting Air Quality Standards – Not delivering Carbon Targets – Admissions to Hospital and Deaths attributed to traffic related AQ and Noise • Emissions Control strategies – vehicle tax and Fuel duty not delivering • Substantial reduction in Vehicle Kilometres necessary – Every school a good school – Live close to work and Walk to shops – Use public transport or for necessary trips share ride – Adopt eco driving styles for essential journeys • Sustainable futures rests with ‘doing things differently’
    40. 40. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle But…………..
    41. 41. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle For Interest: PM10 Levels in Four Cities 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Cycle Taxi Car Motorcycle Minibus BRT Bus Train PM10ugm-3 Mumbai Wuhan Jakarta Newcastle
    42. 42. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Concluding Remarks • Public Transport Operation should: – Have symbiotic relationships with other transport systems – Accommodate non-motorised vehicles – Consider CO2 as a metric for performance evaluation • ITS manage across modes and provide data to: – Inform/educate public – Improve operation – Monitor CO2 However: …….. Address need to travel …….. Land Use ……… Education and Social
    43. 43. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Thank you for Listening Questions?
    44. 44. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle Acknowledgement  EPSRC, Newcastle and Medway Councils and Dft, UK for funding the research presented.  Colleagues at the Transport Operations Research Group, Newcastle University. • Please take opportunities to reference the research presented. Consult the Reference list on the Personal webpage at the University www.newcastle.ac.uk • or • Contact Margaret Bell directly.
    45. 45. 18th July 2013 Stakeholder Event SECUREAcorn Road, Newcastle School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences Cassie Building Newcastle University Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU Prof Margaret Bell CBE Science City Professor in Transport and Environment, margaret.bell@ncl.ac.uk Professor Bell was honoured as CBE, Commander of the British Empire for her services to Sustainable Transport in 2006 and is the Chair of the ITS(UK) Smart Environment Interest Group which was launched at 13th ITS World Congress in London in 2001 Professor Bell’s has almost forty years of research experience which embraces monitoring, modelling and management of traffic, emissions, air quality, noise and exposure; evaluation of health and carbon emissions impacts.

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