The World This Week May 19 - May 23


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The World This Week May 19 - May 23

  1. 1. The World This Week May 19 – May 23, 2014
  2. 2. Equity View: The markets continued their upward movement by almost 2.5% last week. We believe that this rally is likely to continue as there are a lot of triggers lined up in the next couple of months. The government formation exercise will complete today and the markets are keenly watching the key the Financial and economic ministries. Another kicker for the market in short to medium term would be the budget which is expected to be announced in the next 7-8 weeks’ time. The Q4 earnings season has almost come to an end and the results have been either in-line or above expectations. The SBI results showed much better asset quality than expected and the fresh provisioning of NPAs has come down. We believe that the worst of the gross NPA cycle is largely behind us and we would see improvement in asset quality ratios in future. The PSU banks would continue to rally considering that they are significantly undervalued even at the current valuations. The private sector banks are mostly trading at two times of their book value thus the discount of the public sector compared to private sector is more than 50% currently but the same is expected to narrow as the asset quality of public sector banks improve in future. The Bond sector has been witnessing rally in the previous one week with almost 9 bps movement on Friday itself. The yield now is closer to 8.63% on general estimates of contained fiscal deficit to 4% vis-à- vis targeted 4.1% of GDP due to the expectations of new government’s high fiscal discipline. In the currency markets, Rupee continues to appreciate gradually to 58.5 levels last week. We believe that the interventions by RBI are already there as evident by the relaxation of curb imposed on gold import. However there is still some room for the central bank in this category as the import duty on gold is high and the RBI can easily cut rates in few months if the upward bias in rupee continues. The RBI is unlikely to let the Rupee continue appreciating unabated as it should stabilize around 57-58 levels however in short term on the back of optimism and hope in the Indian economy, there could be some appreciation which should not sustain. Basis the impact of rupee movement on export-oriented sectors, we maintain positive bias on IT and Pharma. The correction which happened in last two weeks in these sectors is short term in nature and as Rupee stabilizes most of the stocks should bounce back. News: DOMESTIC MACRO:  RBI relaxes gold import norms under the 80:20 rule; allows premier export houses to import the commodity.  RBI says banks can give up to 10-year loans to good exporters.  Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into India grew by 8% year-on-year to $24.3bn in FY 2013-14  According to RBI data, overseas direct investments by Indian corporates rose to $5.58bn in April, from $5.23bn in March.
  3. 3. GLOBAL MACRO EURO  Bank of England Monetary Policy Minutes of latest meeting says that all members voted to maintain the key interest rate at 0.50% and quantitative easing at 375 bn pounds  Eurozone manufacturing PMI declined to a seasonally adjusted 52.5 in May, down from a final reading of 53.4 in April.  UK’s second estimate of GDP confirmed growth of 0.8% in Q1, compared with 0.7% in the previous quarter. United States  US existing home sales increased 1.3% to a seasonally adjusted 4.65 mn units in April from 4.59 mn in March.  US initial jobless claims rose by 28,000 to 326,000 in the week ending May 17. China  China HSBC Manufacturing PMI recovered to 49.7 in May from April's final reading of 48.1.  China enters into a landmark deal to buy Russian natural gas worth about $400bn. Indices: Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck 19/05/14 24,363 8,091 14,247 17,438 7,628 14,606 6,685 9,945 8,214 11,840 11,585 2,148 1,716 4,698 20/05/14 24,377 8,232 14,250 17,304 7,809 14,631 6,736 10,092 8,387 12,030 11,207 2,155 1,800 4,811 21/05/14 24,298 8,342 14,322 17,120 7,776 14,393 6,779 10,057 8,453 12,063 11,178 2,159 1,835 4,832 22/05/14 24,374 8,518 14,334 17,240 8,303 14,464 6,826 10,069 8,428 12,280 11,301 2,207 1,936 4,809 23/05/14 24,693 8,668 14,581 17,523 8,236 14,775 6,794 10,073 8,440 12,538 11,545 2,287 1,977 4,832 1.36% 7.13% 2.34% 0.49% 7.96% 1.16% 1.64% 1.29% 2.75% 5.90% -0.34% 6.48% 15.18% 2.86%
  4. 4. Commodities and Currency: Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 19/05/2014 58.42 98.28 80.11 57.67 6460 28859 20/05/2014 58.74 98.77 80.52 57.93 6390 28751 21/05/2014 58.77 99.01 80.56 58.09 6444 28543 22/05/2014 58.57 98.87 80.05 57.62 6497 27784 23/05/2014 58.48 98.67 79.80 57.57 6464 27678 -0.10% Rupee Depreciated -0.39% Rupee Depreciated 0.39% Rupee Appreciated 0.17% Rupee Appreciated 0.06% -4.09% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 8.38 -10 2-Year 8.49 -11 5-Year 8.58 -24 10-Year 8.64 -20
  5. 5. Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Nupur Gupta Ridhdhi Chheda Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above- mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”