The World this Week June 18 - June 22 2012


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The World this Week June 18 - June 22 2012

  1. 1. The World This WeekJune 18 – June 22, 2012
  2. 2. Equity View:The results of Greece elections turned out to be an anti-climax. The Syriza party which is the extreme left and was against anyausterity measures and other agreements with the Euro zone and IMF failed to win the majority and hence could not form thegovernment. The other two parties also weren’t able to win the majority on the standalone basis but at least the other twoparties can together form a coalition government comfortably now.There seems to be some consensus emerging in terms of Greece’s willingness and intent to stay in the Euro Zone. The Greeksituation is contained for now but not yet fully resolved. We would have a closer look in terms of non-harsh austeritymeasures for Greece, some sort of compromise can be arrived at in the next few months or maybe longer. Currently, thedisorderly exit of Greece also termed as Greexit is ruled out. Even if Greece decides on exit it probably would be an orderly exitand that too after much negotiation.RBI left interest rates and the cash reserve ratio for banks unchanged, defying widespread expectations for a rate cut as itwarned that doing so could worsen inflation. The Reserve Bank of India kept its policy repo rate unchanged at 8 percent andleft the cash reserve ratio for banks at 4.75 percent. The market was broadly expecting a 25 basis points cut in repo rates. Theencouraging development in all this is that RBI has is observing macro economic data also and based on it made the decision. Itis not influenced by industry groups, stock markets, debt markets etc. In a medium to long term it is a good thing but in shortterm a bit of jolt can be witnessed in the equity markets. One thing that emerges in the fine print of RBI’s decision on no ratecut is that inflation is above the RBIs comfort zone. Also, the continuous depreciation in rupee against the dollar is not helpingeither as the cost of imports is higher even though the prices of Brent crude has dropped to 18 months low.Also, there was a lot of expectation amongst the market participant’s that since the growth has come down and has defied theprojections and expectations, RBI would anyway now want to revive industrial activity investments and cut the interest rates.Again, if we read through the fine print of RBI communication we can understand RBI seems to suggest that investments arenot driven by interest rates alone and one cannot blame interest rate for low investments. Earlier, when interest rates werehigh people use to invest but now the climate has become very cautious and even in low interest scenario people are notinvesting. If we look at US and Japan where interest rates are close to zero it did not revived the investments which concludesthat interest rates are not the only determinants of investments in an economy.25 basis point rate cut is not going to change the profitability overnight and hence the previous rate cut was surprising in apositive sense and no rate cut this time was surprising in a negative sense. Instead of reducing the rate in 2 steps of 25 basispoints each RBI decided to do it in a single shot for maximum impact. We could expect RBI to behave in a similar mannerreducing wholly 50 basis point rather than 25 basis points gradually later on.After the last rate cut many banks had not changed their lending rates. It is only now that some banks are talking aboutreducing the lending rates and also reducing the deposit rates. So while the RBI action has been in the general interest of theeconomy. In the shorter term sense of equity market it has been negative news.The third big news is that that the US has decided to continue its quantitative easing till the year end. There was anexpectation amongst global market participants that Fed would actually buy the US Debt instead of just doing a twist of sellingsome and buying some. Last two rounds of QE were referred as Operation Twist as the Fed had bought the long term US debtand it sold short term US debt thereby flattening the yield curve.The purchase of bonds in open market pushed the bond prices high and bond yields low, thus reducing the cost of lending bythe banks, more directly than reducing the rates. The repo equivalent rate in US which is the target rate of the FED is alreadyclose to 25 bps, and that’s not spurring up the investments in the US and hence it resulted into trimming of the lending ratesdown almost more explicitly than just giving the guidelines. This did reduce the long term yields for a long term but notnecessarily impacted the economy as expected and hence there was an expectation that the Fed would continue to buyanother round of US debt to pump in some amount of liquidity in the system, there by pushing all the risk assets prices highincluding Indian equity markets. This did happen in last two rounds of QE and its equivalent in form of LTRO in Europe.
  3. 3. Positive part of this is that FED is showing intent to continue to give some monetary stimulus which would revive US economyand eventually global economy. The negative part of this is that it is a twist and not an actual purchase of bonds, so FED’sbalance sheet remains constant and in the process there is no liquidity in the system, its just the yield curve adjusts to theliking of FED. Hence, there is no rush to push prices of risky assets. In the short term it is negative but in the long term it canprobably be positive as it would not provide a false alarm in minds of people for why the assets have started to go up suddenlyon back of cheap liquidity.After these three events, we do not have anything decisive milestone ahead. Hence, we could have an indecisive moment oneither side for next few weeks hence we would recommend stock picking strategy than index investing or diversified investing.News:DOMESTIC MACRO: Indias annual consumer price inflation remained unchanged in May at 10.36 percent, government said in a statement on Monday. th The partially convertible Indian currency on Friday, 25 June 2012 hit a record low of 57.32 against the dollar, before the Reserve Bank of Indias suspected intervention propped it up. The RBI shocked financial markets on Monday by leaving its 8 percent policy repo rate and 4.75 percent level for banks required reserves unchanged. It released a statement after the decision saying a rate cut would "exacerbate" inflation. Fitch Ratings cut its credit outlook for India to negative from stable, nearly two months after rival Standard & Poors made a similar call, citing risks that Indias growth outlook could deteriorate if policymaking and governance dont improve.GLOBAL MACROEuro: German Chancellor Angela Merkel resisted pressure on Friday for common euro zone bonds or a more flexible use of Europes rescue funds but agreed with leaders of France, Italy and Spain on a 130 billion euros package to revive growth. Independent auditors said Spanish banks may need up to 62 billion euros in extra capital, to be filled mostly by a euro zone bailout, after Spains medium-term borrowing costs spiralled to a euro-era record on Thursday. Markits euro zone Flash Composite Purchasing Managers Index for June, which comprises the service and manufacturing sectors, fell to 46.0. It has contracted for nine of the last 10 months. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.US: U.S. manufacturing output contracted by 0.4% in May for the second time in three months and families took a dimmer view of their economic prospects in early June in signs the American economys recovery is on shaky ground. The Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 387,000. However, a four-week moving average, considered a better measure of labor market trends, hit the highest level since early December.China: The HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest monthly indicator of Chinas industrial activity, fell to a seven- month low of 48.1 in June from 48.4 in May. China on Monday offered $43 billion to the IMFs crisis-fighting reserves, rounding off a global push to nearly double the Funds war chest to $456 billion to help protect countries from fallout from the euro zone debt crisis.
  4. 4. Satadru Mitra Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Abbas Naheed Kishan Jakotia Kinjal Mehta DisclaimerThe information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock BrokingLimited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sourcesthat we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is forpersonal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their owninvestment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independentadvice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may pleasenote that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arisingfrom the use of this information and views mentioned here.The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclosetheir individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysisand investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time thisrecommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restrictedto place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investorsare advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We alsoexpect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability andincidence of tax on investmentsKarvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indianregulations.Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills,Hyderabad 500 034)SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O):INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBIRegistration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”