The World This Week January 07 - January 11, 2013


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The World This Week January 07 - January 11, 2013

  1. 1. The World This WeekJan 07 – Jan 11, 2013
  2. 2. Equity View: We saw a mild correction in the markets towards the second half of last week. The week also saw announcements of some key data points – IIP data for the month of November contracted by 0.1%, a flattish level as on a y-o-y basis. During first 8 months of this fiscal, IIP growth was is in the range of around 2.5% - 3%, which highlights the softness in industrial activity in the country. We believe that the IIP growth has bottomed out in the last 3 months and we expect some off-take in those numbers in the next few months. Inflation as measured by WPI will be released on 14th January 2012 for the month of December 2012. We are expecting the number to be at around 7% which should give RBI the necessary cushion to cut the rate cut in the 29th January 2013 review. There is an expectation of a 50 bps cut in repo rate and we also believe that there is a chance of CRR cut too as the liquidity remains tight in the system. The Q3 results season has started; we have seen the first few set of numbers. Indus Ind bank came up with a very strong set of numbers and a very strong and a high growth. We expect private sector banks to lead this results season again on the back of very robust asset quality and a very strong NIM growth. We also saw Infosys coming up with its results on Friday and the stock reacted very positively with almost a 17% gain. The company announced very good set of numbers after it having disappointed in the last 4 quarters with big corrections in the prices after every quarterly result announcement. However, this quarter the company has actually exceeded its own guidance and come up with a very strong set of earnings. But from an industry perspective the earnings are still not as per industry leader standards and TCS continues to be the industry leader. In terms of price target, we are looking at Rs. 2950 as a target for Infosys and look at exiting it the moment the stock comes closer to it.News:DOMESTIC MACRO: The index of industrial production fell 0.1 percent annually in November, data released by the Central Statistics Office showed on Friday, compared with revised growth of 8.3 percent in October. Output has grown in just three of the last eight months. Indias trade deficit narrowed to $17.7 billion in December from $19.3 billion in November, even after exports fell for the eighth straight month, a trade ministry official said on Friday Fitch Ratings reiterated on Tuesday its "negative" outlook on Indias sovereign credit rating, citing concerns about slowing economic growth, persistent inflationary pressures and an uncertain fiscal outlook.
  3. 3. GLOBAL MACROEURO The European Central Bank held interest rates at a record low of 0.75 percent on Thursday, refraining from a cut following fledgling signs of life in the euro zone economy and with inflation still above target.US Top Democratic senators urged President Barack Obama on Friday to be ready to raise the debt ceiling without congressional approval in order to avert a damaging debt default.China Chinas annual consumer inflation rate quickened to a seven-month high of 2.5 percent in December on rising food prices, ahead of expectations and narrowing the scope for the central bank to boost the economy by easing monetary policy.
  4. 4. Satadru Mitra Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Abbas Naheed Kinjal Mehta DisclaimerThe information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock BrokingLimited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sourcesthat we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is forpersonal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their owninvestment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independentadvice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may pleasenote that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arisingfrom the use of this information and views mentioned here.The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclosetheir individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysisand investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time thisrecommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restrictedto place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investorsare advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also
  5. 5. expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicabilityand incidence of tax on investmentsKarvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indianregulations.Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills,Hyderabad 500 034)SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O):INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBIRegistration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”