The World This Week  Feb 10 to Feb 15
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The World This Week  Feb 10 to Feb 15 The World This Week Feb 10 to Feb 15 Document Transcript

  • The World This Week Feb 10 – Feb 15, 2014
  • Equity View: Last week was data-heavy with the release of major Inflation numbers. There was a significant cool off in WPI Inflation for the month of January at 5.05% vis-à-vis 6.50% seen last month. The CPI numbers also came down much below the expectations at around 8.80% which is almost a two-year low. There has been some cool off in the inflation of late however it is too early to expect a clear change in the trajectory of inflation. We believe that a large part of it is driven by food and vegetable prices and it is still difficult to state whether this trend is going to sustain in the next few months. As of now, there is no change in our expectations on monetary policy in which we are expecting no easing anytime soon. We believe that interest rates are going to stay elevated for some more time until very clear signs of inflation cool off or expectation of cool off in future. RBI is aiming for CPI inflation of 8% by January 2015 and 6% by January 2016. And we believe that it will continue to work to ensure these numbers are achieved. IIP numbers continue to be negative in the third consecutive month. The industrial and the manufacturing growth have been quite muted. Mining sector continues to struggle on the back of poor environmental and forest clearances that the industry has been watching in the last few years. Though the clearances have now started, it will take some time for the mining sector to pick up. The Vote on Account today is going to be a quick declaration of accounts by Finance minister for next three months until a new government comes in place. We believe that the biggest number which the market is going to track is the fiscal deficit number for FY14 which would be kept under control and would come around 4.8% as per the expectation of government last year. There are no major policy announcements expected though there might be some tweaking on the indirect tax rates and budgeted subsidies for this year; which would be inconsequential since the new government which would come after the May elections will take its own call.
  • News: DOMESTIC MACRO:  Cooler food prices helped bring down the overall retail inflation in India to 8.79 percent in January, its lowest level since January 2012.  Industrial production shrank 0.6 percent in December, its third contraction in a row although the fall was smaller than the -1.0 percent forecast and a revised 1.3 percent decline in November  India's telecoms spectrum auction ended on Thursday after 10 days of bidding, with the government receiving bids worth about 610 billion rupees ($9.82 billion),  Central Statistical Organization said growth in the Indian economy likely to improve to 4.9% in 2013-14 from 4.5% in 2012-13. GLOBAL MACRO EURO  Greece's primary budget surplus which has come in at over 1.5 billion euros ($2.1 billion), has exceeded expectations and will allow the government to boost social spending on austerity-hit citizens.  The 9.5 trillion euro economy contracted 0.4 percent overall in 2013, and the European Commission expects it will grow 1.1 percent in 2014.  The euro zone's full year external trade surplus more than doubled to 153.8 billion euros last year, from 79.7 billion euros in 2012, with exports rising 1 percent and imports falling 3 percent. United States  The official unemployment rate released by the government showed the jobless rate in January dropped to 6.6 percent, the lowest in more than five years.  Factory production fell 0.8 percent in January, the first drop since July and the biggest since May 2009, when the economy was still locked in recession.  The economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.8 percent for all of 2014, versus a previous estimate of 2.6 percent in the previous survey in November. Growth in 2015 is expected to accelerate to 3.1 percent. China  Chinese banks disbursed the most loans in any month in four years in January, by lending 1.32 trillion yuan ($217.6 billion), beating a 1.1 trillion yuan forecast and nearly three times December's level.
  • Indices: Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck 10/2/2014 20,334 6,340 11,832 11,681 5,678 9,458 6,501 10,395 9,130 9,246 8,384 1,545 1,219 4,990 11/2/2014 20,363 6,358 11,923 11,720 5,711 9,450 6,494 10,362 9,220 9,280 8,335 1,529 1,208 5,027 12/2/2014 20,448 6,358 11,944 11,832 5,694 9,592 6,439 10,333 9,243 9,156 8,441 1,527 1,204 5,042 13/02/14 20,193 6,305 11,923 11,582 5,660 9,395 6,379 10,165 9,235 8,990 8,286 1,502 1,209 5,027 14/02/14 20,367 6,312 11,968 11,658 5,713 9,414 6,412 10,153 9,363 9,053 8,386 1,505 1,210 5,089 0.16% -0.44% 1.15% -0.20% 0.61% -0.47% -1.37% -2.33% 2.55% -2.08% 0.03% -2.56% -0.75% 1.98% Commodities and Currency: Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 10/2/2014 11/2/2014 12/2/2014 13/02/2014 14/02/2014 62.19 62.44 62.13 62.27 62.28 102.14 102.48 102.25 103.47 103.67 84.74 85.28 84.72 84.87 85.18 60.74 61.01 60.60 61.02 61.22 6828 6756 6786 6759 6758 29881 30002 29957 30021 30178 -0.13% Rupee Depreciated -1.47% Rupee Depreciated -0.51% Rupee Depreciated -0.78% Rupee Depreciated 1.03% -0.99% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 8.72 -5 2-Year 8.73 7 5-Year 8.96 13 10-Year 8.81 12
  • Satadru Mitra Varun Goel Nupur Gupta Jharna Agarwal Kinjal Doshi Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the abovementioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”