The World This Week - December 05 - December 09' 2011
The World This WeekDec 05 – Dec 09, 2011
Equity View:European Union summit was held last week. The key takeaways from euro summit are: 1. European nations will move towards fiscal integration by having an automatic penalty for countries which will exceed its fiscal deficit target. It is expected this will come into play next year. 2. A €200Bn package will be given to IMF which in turn can lend money to weaker countries like Portugal, Italy & Spain. 3. €500Bn European Union Stability Fund will be set up as a bailout fund which is expected to come into effect next year.The above mentioned steps may completely solve the crisis, however can be perceived as the first step towardsresolution of European nation issues.Markets are looking for a much bigger & significant role of European Central Bank in resolving the crisis. Currently, ECBhas refused for any monetization of debt. It is expected that this measure would become impossible to evade & a moreactive intervention by ECB in the resolution of European scenario may be witnessed.In India, the IIP data will be released in the coming week. Consensus expectation is -0.7% for the month of October. Thenegative expectation was last witnessed two and half years back. A significant slowdown in the industrial activity &manufacturing sector has been witnessed which could probably mark October as the worst month in the long time. thWPI number for the month of November will be announced on Wednesday, 14 November 2011. It is expected to stayaround 9%. Food inflation number is at 6.6% for week ended Nov. 26, versus a 9% seen in last month which is sign ofcool-off in inflation.IIP & Inflation data will give RBI some relief and something to think on growth trajectory. RBI mid quarter policy review is thscheduled on 16 December 2011, wherein it is expected that RBI would announce a pause in the interest rate hikes.Even though it is still early to announce reversal of policy as we do not expect any cuts in interest rates or in CRR,however looking at the macro-economic data & IIP numbers we could expect the RBI stance to change to dovish fromhawkish, which was maintained for last several months. Many South-East Asian countries have started cutting theinterest rates aggressively including China in last couple of weeks. India is the only country in the Asia-Pacific region,which is still on the path of monetary tightening.We have some announcement on insurance deregulation by allowing foreign investments in insurance space which hasbeen opposed in the Parliament. This reform measure would be critical to watch after the witness of opposition of FII inthe retail space.News:DOMESTIC MACRO: Food inflation sharply eased to 6.60 percent in the year to November 26, government data on Thursday showed, from an annual 8.00 percent in the previous week. The economy is likely to grow in the range of 7.25 percent to 7.75 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2012, the finance ministry said in a mid-year economic review presented in parliament on Friday. Indias foreign exchange reserves rose to $306.844 billion on December 2, from $304.365 billion in the previous week.
GLOBAL MACROEuro: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a point on Thursday to counter the twin threats of recession and deflation in the euro zone, and is expected to unveil fresh measures to help banks hurt by the blocs debt crisis. Europe secured an historic agreement to draft a new treaty for deeper economic integration in the euro zone on Friday, but Britain, the regions third largest economy, refused to join the other 26 countries in a fiscal union and was left isolated. Greeces economy contracted 5.0 percent year on year in the third quarter, shrinking less than in previous quarters The EFSF could be downgraded by one or two notches, and the lower rating would depend on whether the six triple-A rated nations in the euro zone are cut.US: The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a 2-1/2 year low to 8.6% in November from 9.0% in October. The U.S. recovery is catching some wind in its sails, brightening prospects it can withstand the economic storms from Europe and a spreading global slowdown.China: Chinas central bank plans to create a new vehicle to manage investment funds worth a total of $300 billion to improve returns on the worlds largest stockpile of foreign exchange reserves, Chinas annual consumer inflation rate tumbled in November to 4.2% from October’s 5.5%, the lowest level since September 2010
Swapnil Pawar Varun Goel Jharna AgarwalPalak Nanjani Neha Arora Kanika Khorana DisclaimerThe information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Groupcompanies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we considerreliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personalinformation and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must maketheir own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and usingsuch independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentionedhere, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies ofKarvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in theabove-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies arerequired to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The teamrendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares orother securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clientsof Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice.Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicableto them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this couldchange the applicability and incidence of tax on investmentsKarvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited): Operates from within India and is subject toIndian regulations. Mumbai office Address: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra(East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited,“KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registrationNo’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O):INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005,CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”