The markets continue with an upward trend. There was a strong rally backed by banks. We had key
macro economic data points coming in with the CAD numbers for the month of March around $ 10
million which was the worst number in the last six months, although the overall current account deficit
for the full year has been contained. There is some concern about the exports growth in the last few
months and the government did sound that the gold import curbs are going to stay for some more time
considering the fact that export growth has been muted. Our view is that we do not expect a very
significant appreciation of the rupee against the dollar because of two reasons :
1. Due to softness of export growth
2. We will see master intervention by RBI should rupee appreciate beyond 58 - 59 levels which is
going to be up for various export oriented companies like pharma and IT.
We have the IT sector coming up with the results starting tomorrow. On an average we expect the
industry to deliver around 3% q-o-q revenue growth. The growth numbers for Infosys would be quite
muted although we are expecting q-o-q growth to be around 0.4-0.5%. We expect the margins to stay
put at the current levels. The stocks of Infosys & TCS have already corrected largely in anticipation of
weak results and we would use this correction in IT stocks as a buying opportunity from our long term
buy position of the IT sector.
In terms of other macroeconomic numbers we had IIP numbers for the month of February coming in
again with a negative slide. There is no sign as yet of any revival in the manufacturing space or in the
industrial activity. The capital goods numbers showed a significant deceleration of around 15% on a y-o-y
basis. There is no sign that the whole infrastructure sector is beginning to revive. We believe that it will
be around another 2-3 months before we see any significant reforms in the IIP numbers. These numbers
are very critical as it will give us an indication whether the infrastructure cycle is showing any sign of
revival. Till that point of time we will continue to maintain our cautious view on the infrastructure and
capital goods stocks. We believe that one should buy only quality stocks in this rally because it is not
backed by fundamentals specifically as far as the infrastructure and real estate stocks are concerned. As
far as the broader markets are concerned, we continue to maintain bullish stance for the rest of the year.
We have a year end target of 24800 on Sensex and we believe that this rally will continue in the months
IMF says India’s growth could recover to 5.4% in the current fiscal year and to 6.4% in the next year to
March 2016 due to stronger global growth, an improvement in export competitiveness and
implementation of the recently-approved investment projects; however, pegs growth at 4.6% for FY 2013-
RBI data shows Indian companies raised $4.30 bn through foreign loans in February against $1.79 bn in
RBI says existing guidelines on interest rates for overseas borrowings will continue for three more months
till June 30, 2014.
Export-Import Bank of India signs a Memorandum of Understanding with the International Trade Centre in
Geneva to promote trade between India and East African nations.
UK visible trade deficit narrowed in February to 9.1 bn pounds from 9.5 bn pounds in January.
Bank of England holds interest rates at 0.5% and keeps quantitative easing at 375 bn pounds.
US import prices rose 0.6% in March compared to a 0.9% rise in February; export prices rose 0.8% in March
compared to a 0.7% rise in February.
US budget deficit came in at $37bn in March, a decrease of $70bn, or 65%, from the shortfall posted in the
same month last year.
IMF estimates US to grow 3.6% this year and 3.9% next year, up from 3% in 2013.
China’s imports fell 11.3% year-on-year to $162.4bn in March after rising 10.1% in February, while exports
fell 6.6% to $170.1bn in March after plunging 18.1% in February, thereby leaving the country with a trade
surplus of $7.7bn for March, compared with a trade deficit of $23bn in February.
Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck
7/4/2014 22,343 7,165 13,265 14,305 6,640 11,914 6,875 10,364 8,867 10,134 9,584 1,712 1,506 4,947
9/4/2014 22,702 7,285 13,499 14,799 6,725 12,132 6,910 10,593 8,771 10,363 9,702 1,742 1,534 4,906
10/4/2014 22,715 7,331 13,573 14,806 6,699 12,327 6,878 10,438 8,701 10,386 9,773 1,786 1,553 4,870
11/4/2014 22,629 7,338 13,410 14,690 6,726 12,205 6,859 10,532 8,835 10,352 9,648 1,782 1,557 4,929
1.28% 2.42% 1.09% 2.69% 1.30% 2.45% -0.25% 1.62% -0.36% 2.15% 0.66% 4.07% 3.42% -0.38%
Commodities and Currency:
Date USD GBP EURO YEN
7/4/2014 59.95 99.36 82.15 58.13 6437 28691
8/4/2014 - - - - 6344 -
9/4/2014 60.07 100.56 82.79 58.88 6455 28919
10/4/2014 60.21 101.05 83.33 59.18 6487 29140
11/4/2014 60.27 101.10 83.74 59.20 6470 29224
Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week)
1-Year 8.63 -10
2-Year 8.71 -4
5-Year 8.96 -11
10-Year 8.94 -13
Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal
Nupur Gupta Ridhdhi Chheda
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