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Advice for the_wise-may_2012 Advice for the_wise-may_2012 Presentation Transcript

  • ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter – MAY 2012
  • ContentsIndex Page No.Economic Update 4Equity Outlook 8Debt Outlook 12Forex 14Commodities 15Real Estate 16 2
  • From the Desk of the CIO… Dear Investor, The medium term outlook on the macroeconomic front has of Mr. Hollande as the winner of French presidential elections. predictably improved within India and to a limited extent globally as While short term turbulence may rock the discussions in Euro zone well. The short term triggers seemed all very confusing though. The over austerity vs. growth and the specifics of the same, we expect much awaited monetary policy loosening began – supposedly with a the medium term shifts in favour of lesser austerity to be a bang of a full 50 bps reduction in repo rates but with limited impact welcome development for a continent starved for growth. on the yields. On the global economic front, the fragile recovery in Turbulence notwithstanding hence, we are cautiously positive about the US appeared to be under a shade of doubt as non-farm payroll the developments in Euro zone. data came in and proved to be worse than expected. Also Europe Equity markets during uncertain times such as these are typically came under further scrutiny with Spain going through a bout of range bound and offer limited near term growth. Investors would social unrest on the back of increased pain of austerity measures. do well to use a combination of strategic and tactical approaches – Our medium term positive outlook however is based on the strategically stay invested for the medium term and tactically shift proverbial woods rather than the trees. The lacklustre response of away from highly diversified index like investments to stock picking. yields to RBI rate cut was partially in response to the hawkish tone This is because while the broad markets may stay range bound, lot of RBI warning against any expectation of further rate cuts if of good quality stocks routinely get beaten down due to random inflation does not ease. With crude oil already starting to cool off, factors – thus offering very attractive entry levels. that seems to be less of a concern. Also while bond markets may On the fixed income side, medium term credit is probably the best react a certain way to the repo rate cut, the banks may react option for now to invest into. The corporate bond spreads may start differently and will eventually start reducing their deposit and to narrow as the repo rate cut makes its way into the banking lending rates. The repo rate cut hence will take time to translate system. Also a few select tax free bonds offer handsome medium into credit cost reduction and yield reduction. However, it is a term capital appreciation potential due to unusually high current matter of when rather than if. yields. On the European front, we believe that the German over-emphasis on austerity is probably appropriately countered by the emergence“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.19”
  • Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets Sensex Nifty 110 As on 30th Change over Change over 105 S&P 500 Nikkei 225 100 April 2012 last month last year 95 90 BSE Sensex 17319 (0.5%) (9.5%) 85 80 75 Equity S&P Nifty 5248 (0.9%) (8.7%) Markets S&P 500 1398 (0.7%) 2.5% 10 yr Gsec Nikkei 225 9521 (5.6%) (3.3%) 9.30 8.80 8.30 7.80 7.30 10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.68% 11 bps 54 bps 6.80Debt Markets Call Markets 8.40% (432 bps) 207 bps Fixed Deposit* 9.00% (25 bps) 75 bps 31000 29000 Gold 27000 25000 23000 21000 RICI Index 3788 (0.7%) (14.0%) 19000 17000 15000 Commodity Gold (`/10gm) 29175 (5.7%) 31.8% Markets Crude Oil ($/bbl) 118.66 (3.8%) (6.3%) 56.00 54.00 52.00 `/$ 50.00 48.00 46.00 Forex Rupee/Dollar 52.52 (2.6%) (15.5%) 44.00 42.00 40.00 Markets Yen/Dollar 80.23 2.5% 1.9%* Indicates SBI one-year FD 4
  • Economy Update - Global • The CPI inflation rate for March 2012 stands at 2.7%. It was 3.2% for the one year period ending in march 2011. • The US unemployment rate has fallen to 8.1% in April 2012, as American employers only added 115,000 US jobs and about 340,000 dropped out of the work force. • Gross domestic product in US expanded by 2.2% annually. Consumer spending which accounts for about 70% of US economic activity, increased at a 2.9% rate - the fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2010. • The Manufacturing PMI fell to a 34 month-low at 45.9 in April’12 down from 47.7 in March’12. • Unemployment in the euro zone rose to a 15-year high of 10.9% in March, driven by lay-offs in Italy and Europe Spain. In Spain unemployment has reached 24.1%. • S&P raised Greeces credit rating out of default territory to “CCC”, after Athens slashed its debt by about one –third which was the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in financial history. • Japan’s Manufacturing PMI fell to a seasonally adjusted 50.7 in April’12 from 51.1 in March’12. It expanded in April at a slightly slower pace from the previous month as new export orders dipped. Japan • IMF forecasts Japans economy to expand 2% this year after contracting 0.7% last year. • The unemployment rate in Japan continues to be stable in March 2012 at 4.5% as it was in February 2012, down from 4.6% recorded in January 2012. • The seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing Managers Index, rose to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March. The latest reading pointed a solid improvement in business conditions, although rate of expansion slowed Emerging fractionally.economies • IMF says Chinas economic growth will slow this year to 8.2% but will rebound to an 8.8% rate in 2013. • China’s HSBC PMI registered a decline to 49.3 in April. This has indicated a sixth successive month-on- month worsening of manufacturing sector operating conditions in China. 5
  • Economy Outlook - Domestic10.0% 8.0% IIP • Indias economic growth slowed to its weakest annual pace 6.0% in almost three years in the three months to December, as 4.0% 2.0% high interest rates and rising input costs constrained 0.0% investment and manufacturing.-2.0%-4.0%-6.0% • Gross domestic product in India - Asias third-largest Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb economy - grew at an annual 6.1% in the third quarter. It is a 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 significant slowdown from 6.9% in the previous quarter and marks the fourth straight quarter of growth below 8%. • Industrial production growth slowed to 4.1% in February 2012 compared to 6.7% expansion in the previous year-ago • The economy has slowed in the face of weaker external month. The government also sharply revised the January demand, rising global uncertainty, elevated interest 2012 production number to 1.1% growth from the rates, high inflation, a stagnant government and declining previously reported 6.8% expansion and attributed it business confidence. "incorrect reporting" of sugar production data which wrongly reported the sugar production to be at 134.08 lakh tonnes instead of 58.09 lakh tonnes in January 2012. GDP growth 9.0 8.6 8.4 8.3 8.1 7.8 • The manufacturing sector continued to remain 7.7 8.0 6.9 subdued, posting a growth of 4.0% compared to 7.5% in 7.0 6.1 the year-ago period, while mining rose 2.1% compared to 6.0 1.2% in February 2011. The electricity sector notched 5.0 robust growth in February and rose 8% compared to 6.8% 4.0 FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) in the year-ago period. 6
  • Economic Outlook - Domestic Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs  Indias headline annual rate of inflation, based on the Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits monthly Wholesale Price Index (WPI), eased slightly to25.0% 6.89% for March 2012 as compared to 6.95% for the20.0% previous month and 9.68% for the corresponding15.0% month of the previous year. The10.0%  Food inflation, which has a weight of about 14%, rose 5.0% to 9.94% from 6.07% in February. Fuel inflation was at 10.41% against 12.83% in February. Notably, the WPI for the month of January 2012 was revised upwards from 6.55% to 6.89%.  Indias new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-  As on 30th March 2012, Bank credits grew by 19.5% on a Y- India General Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) o-Y basis which is 190Bps lower than the growth witnessed rose to 9.47 % in March 2012 - the third month of such in March 2011(i.e. 21.4%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y a measure in the country of retail prices - against basis grew at 17.4%, viz-a viz a growth of 15.8% in March2011. 8.83% in the previous month.  Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet stronger 10.0% before March 31, and meet their targets, and so there is a 9.0% spurt in short-term deposits and advances. 8.0%  On 17th April 2012, Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates 7.0% for the first time in three years by reducing the repo rate by Wholesale Price Index 50 bps to 8%, to give boost to flagging economic growth 6.0% but warned that there is limited scope for further rate cuts. * End of period figures 7
  • Equity OutlookThe month of April saw market staying range bound due adverse news flow about India. FII sold around 300mn$ worth of IndianEquity. There were a lot of concerns about GAAR (General anti-avoidance rules) related to FII taxation. Also, absence of fuel pricederegulation also led to concerns about fiscal deficit.We believe that most of the concerns are overdone. The GAAR issue should clarified within this month as the Finance bill will be putin parliament. Monetary policy has remained extremely easy in developed part of the world and developing markets like China &India have started the monetary easing cycle.Finally, RBI started the monetary easing cycle with the first cut after eighteen months of tightening. With a 50bps repo rate cut, RBIhas clearly become less hawkish. With IIP data showing significant cool-off in manufacturing activity, RBI decided to give growth a bigthrust. Non-food manufactured products inflation, which was 8.4 per cent in November 2011, decelerated significantly to 5.8 percent in February and further to 4.7 per cent in March 2012 giving RBI the necessary cushion to cut. A slowdown in domestic demandand softening of global non-oil commodity prices has led to reduction in non-food inflation which is expected to stay low in FY13 8
  • Equity OutlookRBI has guided for a FY13 GDP growth rate of 7.3% with an annual inflation target of 6.5% thus expecting a nominal GDPgrowth rate of around 14%. We expect corporate earnings to grow between 15% as interest liability comes down and inputcosts reduce due to fall in non-oil commodity prices.European debt markets have calmed down due to massive liquidity injection (LTRO 1& 2) done by European central bank.Bond yields of PIIGS countries have become stable except for Spain where to continue to move up. We believe that debtmarkets in Europe will see more ECB intervention which will lead to decline in concerns about the stability of euro area.The earnings season is going mostly on expected lines. More companies have surprised on the positive than on thenegative. The earnings growth has been led by Private sector banking and FMCG companies. With FY13 earnings at 1300Rs, markets are now trading at 13 times one year forward which is cheap by historical standards. We believe that growthwill bounce back in second half of the year and current valuation provide an attractive entry point in the market. 9
  • Sector View Sector Stance Remarks Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has BFSI Overweight good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to increase in credit growth Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth. Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. The rate cuts have already started to trickle down. We are moreAutomobiles Overweight bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power. The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. However, The significant slowdown in order inflow E&C Neutral activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this space. We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the FMCG Neutral growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels Telecom Neutral in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected. 10
  • Sector View Sector Stance Remarks While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order inflows might slow IT/ITES Neutral down in near term. However, in the next few quarters big rupee depreciation will provide cushion to IT companies earnings . Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth Metals Neutral in developed parts of the world. We believe the commodity prices will bounce back once growth recovers and hence would be positive on industrial metals space. Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. With pricing power returning, e are Cement Neutral becoming constructive on this space. We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the Healthcare Neutral developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and CRAMS space We like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth inPower Utilities Neutral earnings and decent return on capital. We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying Energy Underweight economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses. 11
  • Debt Outlook 9.2 9.30 Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield 9.0 8.80 8.8 8.30 8.6(%) (%) 7.80 8.4 8.2 7.30 8.0 6.80 7.8 0.0 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.6 8.5 9.3 10.1 11.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.4 • The 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield increased by 9 bps in April to close at 8.68%. • The yields on 10-year benchmark government bonds fell by 9 bps from 8.46% to 8.37% in a day when the 50 Bps rate cut was announced. But the yields bounced back by almost 30 bps to 8.67% on 30th April 2012 on account of expectations that the government may issue a new 10-year benchmark bond and the current security may turn illiquid soon. • The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond offers has increased by 15 bps to 76 bps giving an yield of 9.44% as on 30th April 2012. 12
  • Debt Strategy Category Outlook Details The much awaited and expected trend reversal of the interest rates starting with a 50 Bps rate cut, we would recommend investment inShort Tenure short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too. Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI Debt has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing interesting investment opportunities. Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Credit Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive. With the much awaited trend reversal in the interest rates coming as a 50 Bps rate cut and signals of no more cuts in near future, we would recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24Long Tenure months in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the Debt same. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term. 13
  • ForexRupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) 100 Trade balance and export-import data 0 80 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) -5000 USD GBP EURO YEN 60 -10000 0.0% 40 -15000 20 -20000 -1.0% 0 -25000 -2.0% -1.83% -3.0% -2.59% • Exports during March, 2012 were valued at US$ 28.68 billion which was 5.71% lower than the level of US$ 30.41 billion -4.0% during March, 2011 while Imports during March, 2012 were -5.0% -4.32% valued at US$ 42.59 billion representing a growth of 24.28% -4.75% over the level of imports valued at US$ 34.27 billion in March, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $13.90 billion.• INR has depreciated against all the major currencies. It 140000 Capital Account Balance depreciated by 2.6%, in April ( 4.3% in March 2012) against the 90000 US Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it has appreciated by 1.5% 40000 -10000• However, surging crude oil prices and their cascading impact on FY 10 FY 10 FY 10 FY 11 FY 11 FY 11 FY 11 FY 12 FY 12 inflation and growth in India, which imports about 80 per cent (Q2) (Q3) (Q4) (Q1) (Q2) (Q3) (Q4) (Q1) (Q2) of its oil requirements, is expected to limit the rise in the rupee. • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was• Rupee depreciated against Euro by 1.8%. The euro was seen revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 recovering its losses on account of smooth Italian bond Crores. auction, which tried to cool the European markets which were • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more sparked by the downgrade of Spain. investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener. 14
  • Commodities The growing uncertainties in euro zone continues to keep gold 30000 prices stable. The focus has now shifted to Spain from Greece. With 29000 Gold Spain unemployment surging to the highest level in 18 years and its 28000 economy shrinking 0.4% in 1Q from 0.3% contraction in the 27000 previous quarters, the problem in euro zone is far from over and 26000 gold as safe haven is still a preferred choice. The France and Greece 25000Precious elections round the corner, global markets are expected to swing 24000 widely aid to gold stability. On the flip side, the continuing ultra 23000 Metals low fed fund rates and Fed willingness to other measures down the 22000 road to boost the economy shall only benefit gold. Technically 21000 speaking, gold faces slew of resistance between $1665 to $1700; 20000 while the rupee depreciation pushed domestic prices within striking distance of Rs.30000 mark, we continue to maintain our neutral stance. 135.0 130.0 The risk premium in the oil market currently reduced considerably as 125.0 indicated by the oil trading range which is the tightest since 1995. A 120.0 $4.81 dollar range for the month of April implies that the oil marketOil & Gas has found an equilibrium now. The OPEC product rose by 1% to 115.0 110.0 31.405 mbpd in April prompted hedge funds to trim their oil 105.0 exposure for the time being. Expect WTI to trade in a tight range of 100.0 $105.17 to $102.23 and a break of $102 might take oil prices to $96. 95.0 Crude 90.0 85.0
  • Real Estate Outlook - IAsset Classes Tier I Tier II The FY12 year ended in vain with lots of expectation of price correction. Not much change in prices, though the investors Though, all prime pockets in Mumbai, Pune, Gurgaon and Bangalore demand in these sectors increased since prices being have recorded 8-9% better sales in the last quarter of the FY12 still affordable. Also the infrastructure development in compared to FY11, majorly due to new project launches. Markets like Tier II cities have been dramatic in last 2-3 years and Hyderabad, Chennai, Pune and Bangalore to an extent remained opened the city wide on real estate developments with stagnant due to bigger projects being launched by all major local high-rise buildings taking the glam quotient high with Residential developers. Mumbai is majorly affected by the building plans not being the new generation or emergence of nuclear families sanctioned from almost over a year. The new Development Control in last decade. With the new Finance Bill approving of Rules (DCR) and have only indicated a rise in price and precisely due the ECB in Affordable Housing sector, lot of change is same reasons Thane has gained enormously on appreciation and expected in demand since it targets houses in the investment last year. Gurgon expansion in sectors like 114, 90 and 65 range of 15-20 lacs. all far ends, have only taken the price of prime sectors 10-12% high. The UP elections kept Noida unattractive for almost 3 quarter in FY12. Though 30% better on lease transaction than last year, the capital High streets have seen appreciation, traditional values have taken a major hit due to the rent being compressed. The commercial locations still preferred and are intact on supply seems still a concern and will only even out in 2014-15. IT/ITES values. Cities like Lucknow, Indore, Jaipur, Ahmedabad,Commercial/IT and Services consuming over 70% of real estate in India is now seen Surat, Vishakatnam, Chandigarh, Madurai are thriving governing the market dynamics. Average rentals other than Mumbai for on better consume aspirations. warm shell remains still under Rs. 40 per sqft. 16
  • Real Estate Outlook - IIAsset Classes Tier I Tier II Other than India’s top 10-15 malls, most have vacancy of Nothing to beat local traditional markets. Malls are many and minimum 30% and lately many have changed plans to suit footfalls keep reducing year on year putting heavy conversion commercial demand. Traditional investors exposure to the Retail pressure on retailers to keep innovating lease as well as product segment came down drastically making exits of developer to achieve break-even. Many brands have increased their difficult. The revenue share model with retailers remains a presence in Hi-streets than malls. concern to all mall developers. Very attractive, still have scope of high appreciation. India’s Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit since the Land Infrastructure story will only keep demand high and the Real trend of standalone homes are prevalent. Estate Investors (small and big) are exploring the unexplored.Please Note:Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and KolkattaTier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I marketsThe IC note is proposed to be presented every quarterThe IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter 17
  • Why Karvy Private Wealth? Open Architecture – Widest array of products We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level : • Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes • Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class Intensive Research We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio Honest, unbiased adviseGroup-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks orbroking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company likeall banks do. The KPW 3-S Service promise: When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3- S Service Promise” : • Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience • Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking • Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products Pedigreed Senior Management Team A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management, private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations. 18
  • DisclaimerThe information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Groupcompanies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for theaccuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based ontheir specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon anyinformation or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies ofKarvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time totime. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, thatthey undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or othersecurities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are furtherrestricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult theirrespective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the newDirect Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investmentsKarvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations.Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034)SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O):INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512” 19
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