Global economic developments remained in a sort of suspended animation through last month–especially coming on the back of the recent months of significant turbulence.
2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 14
Commodities 15
Real Estate 17
2
3. From the Desk of the CIO
Dear Investor,
We had suggested a few opportunistic strategies to benefit
from the market movement across different asset classes as
Global economic developments remained in a sort of suspended well as amongst stocks. Most of these have generated
animation through last month – especially coming on the back of positive returns – including the strategy to be invested in Gold
the recent months of significant turbulence. This was a welcome and Nifty ahead of the macroeconomic developments in the
relief as most asset markets experienced relatively stable state in developed economies as well as being long in Coal India and
August. While day to day volatility continued across equities, debt other mining stocks with a hedge through opposite position
and gold, there was no definitive directional change.
in Nifty. We continue to advise on similar short term
This is driven in large parts by the actual absence of material strategies – with focus on metal stocks this month in one idea
change in the fundamentals in the recent weeks. While data and equities plus gold in another.
continues to pour in from all sides including US employment,
European debt programs and Indian GDP growth, none of these One of the key findings of behavioral finance is the loss
has any significantly better or worse information than what is aversion amongst human investors. A loss of a certain amount
already known. Even the much awaited Jackson Hole speech of the psychologically hurts us lot more than a gain of similar
US Fed chairman produced another inconclusive input to the
amount. Similarly a real loss through action is more
decision making of investors globally. bothersome than opportunity loss through inaction. This
produces interesting and quite sub-optimal distortions in the
We maintain our cautious short term and positive medium term typical investor’s investment decisions. As a first step, we can
outlook on Indian equities. However, sectoral preferences have
do well to recognize these biases and almost pre-empt them
shifted in the last few months from the domestic-interest-rate- while making decisions. A timely example would be to
neutral globally oriented sectors like IT towards safer bets like remember that the short term losses in equities are paper
FMCG and Pharma. We also continue to advise our clients to have
losses till we book them. While we live through the roller
downside protection on their equity portfolios through 5%-8% coaster which may bring us some mental pain even if the net
out-of-the-money put options on Nifty. returns in a year’s time are positive, what finally matters is
the real money in the bank – which increases nevertheless!
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.20”
3
5. Economy Update - Global
• With S&P lowering the long-term U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA-plus, the
Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved slightly in
US July, plummeted in August. The Index now stands at 44.5, down from 59.2 in July.
• The employment index slipped to 51.6, its lowest since September 2010,
unemployment rate being 9.1%
• Euro Area’s Markit composite purchasing managers index fell to 50.7 from 51.1 in
July inching closer to the contraction phase. The final August manufacturing PMI
Europe showed a contraction in growth, while the final services PMI slipped to a 23-
month low of 51.5 from a July reading of 51.6.
• Unemployment rate in the Euro zone is at 10%
• Moody's lowered Japan's credit rating by one notch to Aa3, due to the frequent
changes in administration, weak prospects for economic growth and its recent
Japan natural and nuclear disasters.
• Japanese exports dropped by 3.3% more than expected during July
• Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in July ’11 from 4.6% in June ’11
• The HSBC's Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slid to 50.6 in August
2011 from 53.5 in July 2011
Emerging
economies • The GDP of China is expected to be at 9.7% for the quarter.
5
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
16.0% IIP monthly data • The GDP growth rate for Q1 FY12 came in at 7.7%, the
14.0%
12.0%
weakest in last 6 quarters. The growth was seen at 7.8% in
10.0% the last quarter. The economic growth for FY11 was 8.5%
8.0% backed by improved farm output and growth in the
6.0% services sector.
4.0%
2.0% • While the manufacturing sector grew 7.2 percent in April-
0.0%
June from a year earlier, construction was a dark spot in
Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar Apr 11 May Jun 11
10 11 11 the data, rising just 1.2 percent annually, down from 7.7
percent a year earlier, as higher interest rates dampened
• Industrial output as measured by the Index of Industrial the housing market and big-ticket projects were plagued by
Production (IIP) increased at an unexpected rate of 8.8%
delays in approvals. Mining output grew 1.8 percent,
in June from an upward revised number of 5.9% in May.
This data was according to the new base year (2004/05), compared with 7.4 percent a year ago while Financing,
new components and weightings. This growth was insurance, real estate and business service grew 9.1 percent
pushed up by capital goods, manufacturing, basic goods, versus 9.8 percent a year ago.
mining and electricity. • A steady rise in interest rates combined with stubbornly
high inflation would impact demand and credit sensitive
• During the month, the capital goods sector growth sectors making a growth target of 8% difficult to achieve.
surged by 37.7 percent from the 3.7 last June. The basic
goods also rose by 7.5 percent from the 3.7 percent of 10.0 GDP growth
June last year, while intermediate goods fell by 1.9 9.0
percent from 8.5 for the corresponding month last year. 8.0
7.0
• The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year.
We believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation 6.0
may not a very efficient way of indicating long term 5.0
growth. We expect the growth to eventually moderate
4.0
out though high input costs may also be a dampener for
FY10(Q2) FY10(Q3) FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1)
manufacturing.
6
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs • Inflation as measured by WPI decreased
Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
marginally to 9.22% in July from 9.44% in June
30.0%
‘11. The number for May was revised upwards
25.0%
to 9.56% from an earlier estimate of 9.06%. The
20.0%
decrease was driven by marginally lower food
15.0% and fuel costs which decreased to 8.19 (from
10.0% 8.38% in June) and 12.04% (from 12.27 in June)
5.0%
respectively.
Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11
• With an expected decrease in the fuel prices
• Bank credit growth deceased to 19.3 percent in July and the monetary tightening stance by RBI, we
from 21.9 percent in June* while Deposits grew by do expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate
18.1 percent compared to 20.4 percent in June 2011. out eventually.
• On account of the increasing interest rates, some 10.5%
moderation has been seen in the credit demand last 10.0% Wholesale Price Index
month. Persistently high inflation may trigger a rate 9.5%
hike in the coming months increasing the borrowing 9.0%
costs further. 8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
• Moderation in the credit offtake is expected to
7.0%
continue in the coming months.
* End of period figures
7
8. Equity Outlook
The month of August witnessed the downgrading of US sovereign rating by S&P and renewed concerns on the fiscal health of euro zone
countries. This lead to huge bouts of volatility across the globe with equities undergoing a significant correction. On the domestic front,
as political energies were spent on addressing the anti-corruption movement, economic reforms have again moved away from
government’s radar screen. Indian markets saw significant redemption pressure from FIIs with a total outflow of Rs 12,500 crore.
Standard & Poor(S&P) downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ in the first week of August. S&P expressed concern about the
long term sustainability of US debt and the political wrangling during the debt limit enhancement negotiations ahead of next year’s
presidential election. Growth continues to weaken in US with Q2 GDP number coming in below consensus expectations.
So far, there has been no announcement regarding the coming of Quantitative Easing (QE 3) although Fed Chairman continues to
mention that Fed has several tools available at their disposal to spur growth and they will use it as and when required. Central bank’s
policy panel will be having a two day meet in September where they will take a stock of the economy. For the time being, they expect
the fiscal policy to play more proactive role. So, all eyes are now on President Obama’s speech in September as he is expected to
announce some stimulus measure that could lead to job creation and continuation of tax benefits to individual tax holders.
In Europe, the fiscal situation of PIIGS countries continues to be fragile and it would require constant support from the European central
bank in the short to medium term. Growth continues to weaken in Germany and France. Last month saw fresh turbulence coming up in
debt markets of Italy & Spain. European governments could increase the size of European Financial stability fund (EFSF) in the months to
come and continue to buy sovereign bonds of Peripheral Eurozone countries which could help stabilize the debt markets. A durable
solution to the sovereign debt crisis still needs to be found.
In India, Q1 GDP data has come at 7.7%, slightly above expectations. We believe that Q2 data will be softer and could be closer to 7%.
RBI seems to be coming to an end of its interest rate tightening cycle although it could increase repo rates further by 25 bps in its policy
review on 16th September. We expect growth to recover in the second half of this fiscal with some revival in capital formation activity.
The recent correction has brought the equity valuation down to very attractive levels. With inflation and interest rates expected to peak
out in the next three months, the second half of this fiscal should be much better for Indian equity. Although short term volatility may
continue due to adverse global factors, we believe it is a great time to go out and start building a long term equity portfolio.
8
9. Sector Outlook
Sector Stance Remarks
We believe in a large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics
is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the developed
Healthcare Overweight
world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players
are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and CRAMS space.
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
FMCG Overweight
growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.
Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India has
BFSI Neutral
good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe
banks will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong.
Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth despite raw material price hikes and
Automobiles Neutral raging competition. We are more bullish on commercial vehicle and agricultural vehicles segment due
to lesser competition and higher pricing power.
The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over
other sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics
E&C Neutral
under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies over utilities, T&D and other
infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics.
9
10. Sector Outlook
Sector Stance Remarks
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability
Telecom Neutral levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly
and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
Commodity prices are coming under pressure due to concerns about growth in developed parts
Metals Underweight
of the world. Hence a cautious stance is recommended
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
IT space might come under pressure due to continued concerns about growth in developed parts
IT/ITES Underweight of the world. While US and European customers of Indian IT companies are in good health, Order
inflows might slow down in near term.
Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply side.
Cement Underweight
We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters.
We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by
Power Utilities Underweight engineering services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal
prices have been on the way up putting pressure on return ratios.
10
11. Debt Outlook
9.2
Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield
9.0 8.60
8.40
8.8 8.20
8.00
8.6
7.80
8.4 7.60
7.40
(%)
8.2 7.20
8.0 7.00
6.80
7.8
0.0
0.9
1.8
2.7
3.5
4.4
5.3
6.2
7.1
8.0
8.8
9.7
10.6
11.5
12.4
13.3
14.1
15.0
15.9
16.8
17.7
18.5
19.4
• After consistent increase in the interest rates, moderation was seen in the interest rates in the last
month. The benchmark 10 yr G-sec yield decreased from 8.45% in July ’11 to 8.33% in June’11.
• The yields for the 2 year period saw a marginal increase while moderation was seen for all other
tenors. Corporate bond yields also saw a marginal dip in interest rates in the month.
• With no respite from the high inflation in spite of monetary tightening, we expect another 25 - 50
bps hike in the year.
11
12. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
We recommend investment into short term bond funds with
a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to
Short Tenure deliver superior returns due to high YTM. We have seen the
Debt short term yields harden due to reduced liquidity and
consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Till
these factors do not stabilize, we see Short term bond funds
and FMPs as an interesting investment option.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at
the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed
Credit Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also
contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at
current levels attractive.
With inflationary pressure not easing, we expect more rate hikes
in the year though these may not be implemented immediately
Long Tenure and could be limited to a couple of hikes. Moreover, these hikes
are already expected and may get factored in. Hence, we have
Debt
changed our stance from negative to neutral and believe that it
may be a good time to start looking for interesting investment
opportunities in the medium term.
12
13. Mutual Fund in Focus – Reliance MIP
Basic Theme – Monthly Income Plan
The fund aims to generate regular returns through investment in Debt and Money Market Instrument and long-term capital
appreciation by investing a portion of the Scheme's assets in equity and equity related instruments. The fund manager keeps moderate
equity exposure averaging around 15-18% but takes active calls on the debt front. Over the years, he has taken active calls on the
duration front which has helped him deliver superior returns.
The fund is managed by Mr.Ashwani Kumar and Mr. Amit Tripathi.
Fund Details Returns (%)
AUM Rs.7565 Cr. 3m 6m 1 Yr 3 Yrs
Expense Ratio 1.54% Reliance MIP(G) 0.3% 3.2% 3.3% 14.1%
Exit Load 1% on or before 1y, nil after that Crisil MIP Blended
Average Maturity 3.52 years 0.5% 2.2% 4.0% 7.4%
Index
Equity Portfolio Market Cap Blended
Portfolio 78% Debt, 18% Equity
Top Holdings Sector Allocation Performance (as on 31st August 2011)
Derivatives Cash &
Government Of India 12.1 Equity, , 0.13% Equivalent, 16.00% Reliance MIP(G)
Power Finance Corpn. Ltd. 8.4 17.89% 3.89% 14.00%
REC 5.9 12.00%
Crisil MIP Blended
Index
Tata Teleservices AAA &
10.00%
4.5 Others,
(Maharashtra) Ltd. Equivalent, 8.00%
15.50%
Reliance Capital Ltd. 3.6 62.59% 6.00%
4.00%
Tata Power 3.1
2.00%
Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd. 3.9
0.00%
Tata Motors 3.1 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Year
13
14. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
100 0
Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
80
-5000
0.00 60
40 -10000
USD GBP EURO YEN 20
-0.01 -15000
0
-20 -20000
-0.02
-0.03
-0.04 • Exports for the month of May increased by 81.7% (y-o-y)
while imports increased by 51.5% over last year. The trade
-0.05 deficit increased to USD 11 bn.
-0.06
140000
Capital Account Balance
• The Rupee depreciated against USD, GPB, Euro & Yen 90000
• The rupee weakened due to global meltdown in equities on
the back of US economic problems along with the euro zone 40000
banking woes
• The slide in global equities world over has increased the -10000
FY 10 (Q1) FY 10 (Q2) FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4)
demand for safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and
the Swiss franc
• We expect the rupee to continue to weaken given the • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and
continuous demand for dollars by oil importers. In stands at `273133 Cr. for the fiscal while it was 37,298 Cr.
anticipation of this, banks have been engaging in buy-sell for Q4.
swaps (buying dollars in spot market and selling in forward • We expect the capital account balance to remain positive
market) resulting in a dollar shortage and pushing its value as higher interest rates would make investment in the
higher. Indian markets attractive hence drawing investments into
the market.
14
15. Commodities
29000
The recent downgrade by US credit rating to AA+ by S&P has 27000 Gold
triggered a bout of selling across all major asset classes 25000
barring precious metals. Gold Futures in the COMEX has 23000
21000
climbed to a record $1700 an ounce following investors rush
Precious 19000
to the safer haven. As commodities are likely to correct 17000
Metals following global fund liquidation, any dips in gold prices 15000
31-Jul-11
31-May-11
30-Sep-10
28-Feb-11
30-Aug-10
31-Dec-10
31-Aug-11
30-Nov-10
31-Jan-11
30-Apr-11
30-Jun-11
31-Oct-10
31-Mar-11
should be bought. Coupled with the domino effect on global
stock markets mayhem, gold is entering into a seasonally
strong fourth quarter and gold can only go up. We continue
to maintain our year-end target of $1780 an ounce.
Crude
The recent bout of global uncertainty have pressurized crude 130.0
120.0
oil amid concern of double dip recession in the US and global
110.0
economy slipping into red. We expect crude oil prices have 100.0
Oil & Gas topped out in the interim and can only move down from here 90.0
on. Although, the middle east will be hit by the falling dollar 80.0
70.0
income and might try to limit their production in order to
60.0
support prices, we believe any such temporary uptick shall not
31-May-2011
30-Sep-2010
31-Jan-2011
28-Feb-2011
31-Mar-2011
30-Jun-2011
30-Aug-2010
31-Dec-2010
30-Apr-2011
31-Aug-2011
31-Oct-2010
30-Nov-2010
31-Jul-2011
be sustained. This is obviously a positive news for the
emerging markets. Expect crude oil to remain under pressure.
15
16. Cygnus II
Objective:
To generate provide enhanced upside participation in gold while mitigating any downside risk and providing capital
protection to the investor
Product Specifications
Issuer Karvy Financial Services Limited
Instrument Secured Redeemable Non-Convertible Debenture
Reference Index MCX Front Month Futures Gold price
Tenor 36/40 Months
Initial Level Reference Index as on Deemed Date of Allotment
Final Level Simple average of reference index on Final Fixing Date
Opening Date 29-August-2011
Closing Date 21- September-2011
Proposed Deemed date of
29- September-2011
Allotment
Coupon Max {0%, PR * Gold Performance}
Participation Rate 120%
Principal Protection 100%
Placement Charges 3%+10.30%S.T. on placement charges collected upfront
16
17. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
Sales are under pressure as usual, Q2 & Q3 of 2011 The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the
would clear clouds on possible correction in this infrastructure development in these cities have
sector. Lot of developers launching new projects made the residential development spread across the
since the existing ones have hit roadblocks due to city limits. On an average price is still affordable. Key
high prices. The loading on actual usable area has development developer are seeing demand of 3BHK
seen a sharp rise in Mumbai, Bangalore & Pune, and luxury development but are only doing well if
from an average 20% to 35%, this is another way to the project size is limited to 100-150 units. The
Residential
hedge the realty prices. Investors seem to be trend seems to be favorable since there is lot of
interested in under development, pre-launched demand comes from smaller cities closer to these
projects which clearly give them appreciation Tier-II & III cities
without any possible speculation. RBI credit rate
increase with tightening of construction finance to
developer is only increasing pressure on
developers.
Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike
expansion approach by corporate, this segment Tier-I the price differentiation is double favoring
has gone through correction. Rates per sqft have commercial since most of them are in CBD areas.
seen almost 30% down-trend and will be stagnant
Commercial/IT for the coming 2-3 quarters. Surely, the segment is
at the down-tip of the cycle, and is the best
opportunity for companies looking for long term
holding of real estate office space.
17
18. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II**
The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets
sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are
seen a major transformation on all its business expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and
aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would
consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety, always have capital protected due to dearth of
less innovation, existence with competition, available space.
Retail maximizing bottom line than top-line approach
have been making the retailers smarter. Revenue
share model with a built in MG is how the deals
are done
Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit
commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity
Land since it can be used as tangible and most credible
pledge against business
*Tier I markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
**Tier II markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
The outlook is updated on a quarterly basis
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19. Why Karvy Private Wealth?
Open Architecture – Widest array of products
We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
• Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
• Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class
Intensive Research
We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines
truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio
Honest, unbiased advise
Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or
broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
The KPW 3-S Service promise:
When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
S Service Promise” :
• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience
• Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking
• Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products
Pedigreed Senior Management Team
A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
19
20. Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained
herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness
thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions
based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting
upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated
companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from
time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades,
if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of
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employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.
The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult
their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once
the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments
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20
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