2. Contents
Index Page No.
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 12
Forex 14
Commodities 15
Real Estate 16
2
3. From the Desk of the CIO…
Dear Investor,
Last month saw the pitch for monetary easing build across the board in and QE-2 came at the time of much worse economic outlook in the US.
India – only to be ultimately ignored by RBI in its monetary policy They were both used to revive credit growth in the wake of the financial
announcement towards the end of the month. While a suitably strong case crisis which led to a sudden drop in credit availability because of extreme
can be made for as well as against further monetary easing in India owing risk aversion amongst private sector banks based on their massive write-
to the specific circumstances Indian economy finds itself in currently (vis-à- offs through the crisis. Considering the relatively better state of bank
vis moderate growth and somewhat uncomfortable inflation), RBI has balance sheets now and much better availability of credit in general than
chosen to play it safe and focus on inflation first. It is both difficult and that through the crisis months, quantitative easing at this point will
futile to second-guess how RBI might be thinking about growth vs inflation. probably only serve to bid up the prices of risk assets. It might not have a
However, it suffices to notice that the explicit message in its major impact on the real economy. Given this, the Fed may choose to keep
communication was clearly inflation focused. This hence points to the the QE option for a later and worse state if it comes about.
unlikelihood of repo rate reduction in the next review as well, unless fuel
Through turbulent but range-bound months such as those of CY12 till now,
and food prices cool off considerably.
a useful approach to managing investments is to rebalance the portfolio
Despite the hopes of monetary easing, most market participants in Indian regularly to book profits in the “winning” ideas/stocks/assets and to
equity markets as well as debt markets were quite prepared for RBI’s increase exposure in “losing” ones – insofar as one believes that both of
stance and announcement, thus reacting little to the announcement when them are sound investments to start with and can be held for the long term
it came. We expect that the future market movement in debt and equity if necessary. This sort of regular rebalance translates the nearly tautological
markets will be determined more by domestic policy actions and and thus meaningless dictum of buy-low and sell-high into a disciplined
developments in Euro-zone. Another “swing” factor could be the renewed activity with some benefit. This is because one buys as asset when it goes
optimism regarding quantitative easing (QE-3) by the US Federal Reserve down in value and sells another one that goes up in value – albeit in
that is getting built globally. This is purportedly because of continued incremental quantities. If the overall range-bound but volatile behavior of
sluggishness of economic growth in the US. However, owing to the limited various assets continues through the year, one is often better off in this
perceived success of QE-1 and QE-2 though, the opinion is quite divided approach than purely holding on to all the investments as they were at the
over whether the Fed will actually go for QE-3 in the near future. We beginning of the year. This applies to the overall portfolio of various
believe that QE-1 instruments as it does to a purely equity stocks portfolio.
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.19”
4. Economic Update - Snapshot of
Key Markets
As on 31st Change over Change over 115
110
Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225
July 2012 last month last year 105
100
95
90
BSE Sensex 17236 (1.1%) (5.3%) 85
80
75
Equity S&P Nifty 5229 (0.9%) (4.6%)
Markets S&P 500 1379 1.3% 6.7% 9.30 10 yr Gsec
8.80
Nikkei 225 8695 (3.5%) (11.6%) 8.30
7.80
7.30
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.25% 7 bps (20 bps) 6.80
Debt Markets Call Markets 8.03% 21 bps 13 bps
31000
Fixed Deposit* 9.00% 0 bps (25 bps) 29000
Gold
27000
25000
23000
RICI Index 3637 5.8% (9.8%) 21000
Commodity
Gold (`/10gm) 29905 1.1% 28.8%
Markets 60
Crude Oil ($/bbl) 105.93 12.5% (8.6%) 58
56 `/$
54
52
50
48
46
44
Forex Rupee/Dollar 55.81 0.9% (20.9%) 42
40
Markets Yen/Dollar 78.3 1.6% (0.6%)
• Indicates SBI one-year FD 4
•New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
5. Economy Update - Global
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in June’12, improved slightly in
July’12. The Index now stands at 65.9 (1985=100), up from 62.7 in June’12.
US • The US unemployment rate increased to 8.3% in month of July, slightly higher than 8.2% in June. Gross
domestic product expanded at a 1.5% annual rate between April and June, the weakest pace of growth
since the third quarter of 2011.
• The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.0 in July (a 37-month low), down
from 45.1 in June. The PMI has now signalled contraction for 12 consecutive months.
Europe • The European Central Bank held its main interest rate at a record low of 0.75% in July, waiting to see
whether inflation and the euro zone economy slow further before deciding on any fresh cut in borrowing
costs.
• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 47.9 in July, down from 49.9 in June. Japanese
manufacturing production declined for a second successive month in July, and at an accelerated rate.
Japan • The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.3% in June declining for the second
straight month, but overall the economy continues to struggle after last year's disaster and as demand
from debt-laden Europe weakens.
• China’s HSBC PMI inched higher to 49.3 in July from 48.2 in June signalling only a marginal deterioration
in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. Moreover, the month-on-month increase in the
Emerging index was the largest in 21 months. The benchmark one-year lending rate was cut by 31 basis points to
economies 6% and the one-year deposit rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 3%.
• India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose a lower-than-expected 7.25% in June from a year earlier, mainly
driven by higher food prices.
5
6. Economy Outlook - Domestic
10.0%
8.0% IIP
6.0% • India's economic growth fell below the psychologically
4.0%
significant 6% level for the first time in last 3 years, signalling
2.0%
0.0% that country’s slowdown is deepening and affecting all sectors
-2.0% of the economy. Sharp falls in the manufacturing & Agriculture
-4.0%
sectors have led to India’s GDP growing only at 5.3% as
-6.0%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May compared to 7.8% growth a year earlier.
11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12
• The economy has slowed in the face of weaker external
• The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) expanded by a low 2.4% in demand, rising global uncertainty, elevated interest rates, high
May 2012 relative to the 6.2% growth in May 2011, due to inflation, a stagnant government and declining business
contraction in capital goods and mining output, coupled with poor confidence. With the economy battling multiple
show by manufacturing sector. The April’12 IIP has been revised macroeconomic problems, the Reserve Bank of India is under
lower to -0.9% from earlier estimate of 0.1%. pressure to both curtail inflation and reduce key interest rates
to boost the investment climate in the economy.
• Several use-based industries displayed a decline in growth in May
2012 relative to May 2011, including capital goods (to -7.7% from 9.0
8.4 8.3
6.2%), consumer non-durables (to 0.1% from 9.0%) and basic goods 8.1
7.8 7.7
(to 4.1% from 7.5%). However, a faster pace of growth was
8.0 GDP growth
6.9
recorded in May 2012 relative to the same month in 2011 by 7.0
consumer durables (to 9.3% from 5.1%) and intermediate goods (to 6.1
2.7% from 0.1%). 6.0
5.3
5.0
• For the first two months of the current fiscal, April-May, the
industrial growth is sharply lower at 0.8%, compared to 5.7% in the 4.0
year-ago period. FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4)
6
7. Economic Outlook - Domestic
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs India's wholesale price index (WPI), the main inflation gauge,
25.0%
Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits rose to a lower-than-expected annual 7.25% in June, its
23.0%
slowest rate since January, helped by moderation in fuel
21.0%
prices, yet remained above the central bank's comfort level.
19.0%
17.0%
The annual rate of inflation (WPI) stood at 7.55% in May’12.
15.0%
WPI inflation was 9.44% in June’11. The annual reading for
13.0% April was upwardly revised to 7.5% from 7.23%
11.0%
9.0% Food inflation rose to 10.81 percent from 10.74%. Fuel and
7.0% power prices rose at a slower pace of 10.27% after increasing
5.0% 11.53% in May. Manufactured goods inflation remained at
5%. Core inflation remained unchanged from the May’12
levels of 4.85%
As on 29th June 2012, Bank credits grew by 16.5% on a Y-o-Y India's new consumer inflation rate, based on the all-India
basis which is 542 Bps lower than the growth witnessed in June General Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Combined) declined
2011 (i.e. 21.5%). Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at slightly to 10.02% in June 2012 -- the sixth month of such a
13.5%, viz-a viz a growth of 20.4% in June 2011. measure in the country of retail prices -- as compared to
10.36% in the previous month. The base effect of inflation in
Normally, banks try to make their balance sheet stronger before housing contributed to the fall in inflation.
March 31, and meet their targets, and so there was a spurt in 10.0%
short-term deposits and advances, post that there has been a 9.5% Wholesale Price Index
decline in both the months. 9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
On 31st July 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the key policy rates 7.5%
unchanged and cut the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) by 100 bps 7.0%
to 23%, as the primary focus of policy remained on inflation 6.5%
control in order to secure a sustainable growth path over the 6.0%
medium-term
* End of period figures 7
8. Equity Outlook
Global equity market remained optimistic in July on the back of expectations about monetary easing from European central bank and
US Fed. Indian equity markets ended on a flat note with Markets waiting for next set of economic reform measures to be announced
by the central government. We have a new finance minister Mr. Chidambaram and expectations are running high about action on
Direct tax code, GST and aviation and retail reforms.
Foreign investors have put in 10.5 billion dollars in Indian Equity markets so far this calendar year. After a very turbulent CY11 in which
nifty corrected 24%, Indian equity markets have bounced back this year with a 13% return on CYTD basis. In last six months, sectors
like consumer, healthcare and private sector banking have done quite well with robust earnings growth and double digit stock price
gains. As interest rates come down, corporate investment cycle will revive leading to a bounce back in economic growth.
Nifty Returns
25.00%
20.00% 17.90%
15.00% 13.10%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00% YTD CY11 CY10
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
-30.00% -24.60%
8
9. Equity Outlook
RBI announced the Quarterly monetary policy review on 31st July. It made no changes to policy rates in this review. RBI has
taken adequate care of liquidity deficit first through 125bps cut in CRR last quarter and now with the SLR cut of 1%. The
concerns remain more about the overall growth situation in the country with RBI downgrading growth target for FY13 from 7.3%
to 6.5%. With a weak monsoon, agricultural growth is expected to slip and industrial output shows little signs of picking up.
However, RBI has decided to focus more on managing inflationary risks as of now. They have raised the baseline projection of
WPI based inflation to 7% for March, 2013 as against the earlier projection of 6.50%. While we agree with RBI about suppressed
inflation in India due to incomplete pass through of fuel and power costs, the political environment is not conducive to fuel and
power price hikes and as such the headline inflationary numbers are expected to stay low.
The Q1FY13 earnings have been on expected lines so far. FMCG & healthcare spaces have announced strong results on the back
of commodity prices easing and rupee depreciation respectively. Private sector banks have also delivered good results with
stable earnings and peaking out of NPAs. Markets are currently trading at cheap valuations and we believe cautiousness in the
near term should be used to accumulate quality stocks with a slightly longer-term view
10. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare Overweight developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
CRAMS space
The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to
BFSI Overweight increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better
management quality and higher balance sheet discipline
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as
FMCG Overweight the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable
incomes.
Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. The rate cuts have
Automobiles Overweight already started to trickle down. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles
segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability
Telecom Neutral levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly
and we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
10
11. Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong
Cement Neutral
view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the sector.
E&C Neutral Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive on this
space.
We like the regulated return characteristics of this space. This space provides steady growth in
Power Utilities Neutral
earnings and decent return on capital.
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
Energy Underweight
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth
Metals Underweight
in developed parts of the world.
With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might slow
IT/ITES Underweight
down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive intensity.
11
12. Debt Outlook
9.0 9.30
Yield curve 10-yr G-sec yield
8.8
8.80
8.6
8.30
8.4
(%)
(%)
8.2 7.80
8.0
7.30
7.8
7.6 6.80
7.4
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
4.7
5.5
6.3
7.1
7.9
8.7
9.5
10.2
11.0
11.8
12.6
13.4
14.2
15.0
15.7
16.5
17.3
18.1
18.9
19.7
• The New 10 year benchmark G–Sec yield rose by 7 bps in July’12 to close at 8.25%.
• RBI reduced the SLR (the portion of bank deposits held in treasury bills) to 23 percent from 24 percent, in its bid to
increase liquidity to support credit growth. The move is expected to release around Rs 60,000 crore in the system. This
change will be effective from 11th August 2012.
• The spread a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond spread marginally increased to 102 Bps (31st July 2012) from 96 bps (29th
June 2012). The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9.27% on 31st July 2012.
12
13. Debt Strategy
Category Outlook Details
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps
SLR cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with
a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend investment in short term
Short Tenure debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too. Due to
Debt liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing
plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high
YTMs (9.5% – 10%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the
current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also.
Credit Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the
spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with the 100 bps SLR
cut in july’12 and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps
rate cut in April’12, and signals passive cuts in near future, we would
recommend to hold on to the current investment for a horizon of 18-24 months
Long Tenure
in Longer term papers and not to increase the exposure in the same. These,
Debt while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital
appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable
for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting
when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the
longer term.
13
14. Forex
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) 100 Trade balance and export-import data 0
80 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
4.00% -5000
60
3.50% -10000
40
3.00% -15000
20
2.50%
0 -20000
2.00%
-20 -25000
1.50%
1.00%
0.50% • Exports during June, 2012 were valued at US $25.06 bn which
0.00% was 5.45% lower than the level of US $ 26.51 bn during June,
-0.50% 2011. Imports during June, 2012 were valued at US $35.37 bn
-1.00% representing a negative growth of 13.46% over the level of
USD GBP EURO YEN imports valued at US $40.87 bn in June, 2011 translating into a
trade deficit of $10.03 bn.
140000
Capital Account Balance
• INR has appreciated against USD, GBP & Euro whereas it
witnessed a depreciation against Japanese Yen. INR appreciated 90000
by 0.9%, in July (Appreciated by 0.2% in June 2012) against the
US Dollar. But, since the beginning of the calendar year it has
40000
depreciated by 4.5%
• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate -10000 FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally • The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised
started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was
month with an appreciation. revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100
Crores.
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been taking a series of steps • We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more
to rein in the currency’s loss, including curbing banks’ abilities investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs
to speculate in the currency market since last two months. The would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty
central bank sold at least $20 billion to stabilize the currency. in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
14
15. Commodities
31000
Gold prices continue to remain stable following Fed’s
30000 Gold
29000
extension of operation twist and a positive outcome of EU
28000
summit. Any short term measures from either US or EU
27000
Precious central banks is positive for gold as it improves the money
26000
circulation. The continuing ultra low fed fund rates and
Metals possibility of interest rate reduction from the ECB; and
25000
24000
Fed willingness to other measures down the road to boost
23000
the economy shall only benefit gold. Expect gold prices to
22000
remain firm with a positive bias.
21000
140.0
130.0
Crude
The sharp rise in oil prices following recent correction was 120.0
a cause for concern. The Brent crude oil is currently
Oil & Gas trading above the $100 mark and may sustain at these 110.0
levels for some time. With global policy makers go easy on
the monetary policy, oil is likely to stay steady. Expect oil 100.0
prices to remain firm.
90.0
80.0
16. Real Estate Outlook - I
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence
coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and
shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have
Prices surged since last quarter, factors being
seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user
largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring
transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,
first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,
Residential Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2
Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh
quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,
highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft
the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these
range
markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a
good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well
under 1500 sqft)
Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends
Very less benchmarks available but the rents are
getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai
Commercial/IT growing 8-10% every year for commercial
still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small
properties in Tier-II cities
office spaces from investors
16
17. Real Estate Outlook - II
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have
been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well
Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated
awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major
beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a
Retail cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied
re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial
and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in
offices, call centers, super-market etc
prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up
of FDI.
Land has given better appreciation in these markets than
30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land
Land expensive month on month. Interest from investors has property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming
drawn lot of attention in well connected areas. areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land
valuable
Please Note:
Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta
Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets
The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
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18. Why Karvy Private Wealth?
Open Architecture – Widest array of products
We are an open-architecture firm at two levels – asset class level and product level :
• Offering COMPREHENSIVE choice of investing across all asset classes
• Offering EXTENSIVE choice of multiple products from different product providers under each asset class
Intensive Research
We closely track the historical performance across asset classes, sub-asset classes and product providers to identify, evaluate and
recommend investment products (KPW’s or third-party). We have our own proprietary methodology for evaluating products; for
product providers, we also note the investment style and risk management philosophy. Our comprehensive analysis determines
truly exceptional performers to be added to your portfolio
Honest, unbiased advise
Group-wide, we have no Mutual Fund or Insurance products of our own unlike most of the financial services groups (banks or
broking houses), who are doing wealth management. Neither do we have exclusive tie-up with any single insurance company like
all banks do.
The KPW 3-S Service promise:
When you become a Client of KPW, besides getting intelligent & practicable Investment Advice, you get the benefit of “The KPW 3-
S Service Promise” :
• Smooth and Hassle Free – Attention, Service & Convenience
• Sharp and proactive – Portfolio monitoring and tracking
• Smart –Incisive insights on markets and Investment products
Pedigreed Senior Management Team
A talented team of leaders with global and Indian experience, having a unique blend of backgrounds of wealth management,
private equity, strategy consulting and building businesses powers Karvy Private Wealth and its operations.
18
19. Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on
their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of
Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here.
The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to
time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that
they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other
securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further
restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.
The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their
respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new
Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments
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Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at:
702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 .
(Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034)
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INP000001512” 19
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20