Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

© 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved

1
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Portio Research Limited.
Published November 2010 by Portio Research Limited ...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Contents
Introduction .........................................................
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Australia .....................................................................
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Mobile Penetration — Top 20 Mobile Markets ....................................
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

List of Figures
Figure 1:
Figure 2:
Figure 3:
Figure 4:
Figure 5:
Figure 6:
...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Figure 50:
Figure 51:
Figure 52:
Figure 53:
Figure 54:
Figure 55:
Figure 56:...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

List of Tables
Table 1:
Table 2:
Table 3:
Table 4:
Table 5:
Table 6:
Table 7...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Table 56:
Table 57:
Table 58:
Table 59:
Table 60:
Table 61:
Table 62:
Table ...
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Table 114:
Table 115:
Table 116:
Table 117:
Table 118:
Table 119:
Table 120:...
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Table 171:
Table 172:
Table 173:
Table 174:
Table 175:
Table 176:
Table 177:...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Chapter 1
Introduction

12

© 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Introduction
Worldwide Mobile Market
Mobile communications has undoubtedly r...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Figure 1: Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F)
...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Figure 2: Mobile Service Revenues — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 – En...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Infrastructure
•

•
•
•

Mobile infrastructure expenditure recorded a dip in...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Mobile and Other Major Industries
Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Maj...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Mobile and Other Media
Mobile vs TV
•
•

In 2010, worldwide mobile handset s...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Figure 8: Mobile Subscribers and Internet Users — Worldwide (In Million, End...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Performance Comparison – Major Mobile Companies vs Other Big Companies
The f...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Leading Mobile Operators vs Other Big Companies in Fortune Global 500
• AT&T...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Figure 11: Performance Comparison of Market Leaders across Various Industrie...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Table 2:

KPIs of Leading MNOs in Global Fortune 500 Companies (End 2008 & E...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

•
•
•

KDDI generated both the highest revenue per employee and highest oper...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Chapter 2
Mobile Subscriber Base

© 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserv...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Mobile Subscriber Base
Worldwide
 The worldwide mobile subscriber base was ...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Table 4:

15

Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 201...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Figure 14: Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base — Regional Contribution (2015F)
...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Table 6:

Top 10 Markets by Mobile Subscriber Base Growth (In Million, End 2...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Figure 16: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (I...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Table 7:
2010)

Top 10 Operators by Q2 2010 Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwi...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Western Europe
 Western Europe’s mobile subscriber base is forecast to grow...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Table 8:

18

Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Mil...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Figure 19: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Euro...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Table 9:

Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Mi...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

20

Figure 20: Technology Forecast — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – ...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Belgium
Table 12: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Belgium (End 2009 – E...
Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015

Table 15: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Denmark (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 ...
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Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011 2015

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Your essential guide to understanding the size, scope and major players of the worldwide mobile industry.

Serving as an invaluable guide for those in and outside the mobile space to enable better understanding of the worldwide mobile market, the third edition of this detailed and comprehensively updated handbook offers you all the essential market data required for business strategy and planning purposes, including: in-depth subscriber growth forecasts for leading countries, subscriber figures for key network operators across all major geographies, market share data, quarterly handset shipment figures, handset and infrastructure vendor profiles, analysis of popular handsets/smartphones, ARPU data, churn figures and so much more.

Other report features include an introduction with performance comparisons of mobile vs. other media and major industries, to demonstrate how massive mobile truly is, and briefings on the four major aspects of the mobile industry: subscribers, revenues, handsets and infrastructure.

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Transcript of "Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011 2015"

  1. 1. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 1
  2. 2. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Portio Research Limited. Published November 2010 by Portio Research Limited © Copyright 2010. www.portioresearch.com info@portioresearch.com Disclaimer and Legal Notices Disclaimer Every care has been taken in the preparation of this study to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, factual and correct to the best of our knowledge, at time of publishing. All opinions, suppositions, estimates and recommendations included in this document are solely the opinions of the authors unless otherwise stated. Portio Research Limited accepts no liability for any loss or damage or unforeseen consequential loss or damage arising from the use of the information contained within this document. The opinions, suppositions, estimates and recommendations within this document cannot be guaranteed, and readers use this information at their own risk. The information published in this document is subject to change without notice at any time, and Portio Research Limited accepts no liability or obligation to inform the reader of such changes. Portio Research Limited do not promote or endorse any specific companies or products, the views and opinions we express in this document are wholly our own assessments, and independent from any external interest or influence. Many terms and phrases and trade names used in this document are proprietary and Portio Research Limited recognises and acknowledges that all trademarks are copyright, belonging to their respective owners. Where possible, this document accords such terms and phrases and trade names to their respective owners. All Rights Reserved. No part of this document can be copied, shared, redistributed, transmitted, displayed in the public domain, stored or displayed on any internal or external company or private network or electronic retrieval system, nor reprinted, republished or reconstituted in any way without the express written permission of the publisher. Forwarding of this electronic document without the correct legal licence is theft. It’s unethical, immoral and against the law. If you have any questions about the legal licence conditions under which this document has been distributed, please contact Portio Research on info@portioresearch.com If you did not buy this document and a colleague or associate has sent it to you, do not assume you are legally entitled to read it, it is your responsibility to ensure you have the correct legal licence to read this document. 2 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  3. 3. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................13 Worldwide Mobile Market................................................................................................................... 13 Subscribers ..................................................................................................................................... 13 Revenues ........................................................................................................................................ 14 Handsets ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................... 16 Mobile and Other Major Industries ..................................................................................................... 17 Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Major Industries ........................................................... 17 Mobile and Other Media..................................................................................................................... 18 Mobile vs TV ................................................................................................................................... 18 Mobile vs Internet ............................................................................................................................ 18 Performance Comparison – Major Mobile Companies vs Other Big Companies ............................... 20 Telecommunications vs Other Industries in Fortune Global 500 ..................................................... 20 KPIs of Leading MNOs in Fortune Global 500 ................................................................................ 22 Mobile Subscriber Base ........................................................................................................26 Worldwide .......................................................................................................................................... 26 Western Europe ................................................................................................................................. 32 Austria ............................................................................................................................................. 36 Belgium ........................................................................................................................................... 37 Denmark.......................................................................................................................................... 37 Finland ............................................................................................................................................ 38 France ............................................................................................................................................. 39 Germany ......................................................................................................................................... 39 Ireland ............................................................................................................................................. 40 Italy.................................................................................................................................................. 41 The Netherlands .............................................................................................................................. 42 Norway ............................................................................................................................................ 42 Portugal ........................................................................................................................................... 43 Spain ............................................................................................................................................... 43 Sweden ........................................................................................................................................... 44 Switzerland...................................................................................................................................... 45 The UK ............................................................................................................................................ 45 Eastern Europe .................................................................................................................................. 47 Belarus ............................................................................................................................................ 51 Bulgaria ........................................................................................................................................... 52 Croatia............................................................................................................................................. 52 Czech Republic ............................................................................................................................... 53 Greece ............................................................................................................................................ 53 Hungary........................................................................................................................................... 54 Lithuania.......................................................................................................................................... 54 Poland ............................................................................................................................................. 55 Romania .......................................................................................................................................... 56 Russia ............................................................................................................................................. 56 Serbia .............................................................................................................................................. 57 Slovakia........................................................................................................................................... 58 Turkey ............................................................................................................................................. 58 Ukraine ............................................................................................................................................ 60 North America .................................................................................................................................... 61 Canada............................................................................................................................................ 63 The US ............................................................................................................................................ 64 Latin America ..................................................................................................................................... 65 Argentina ......................................................................................................................................... 68 Brazil ............................................................................................................................................... 69 Chile ................................................................................................................................................ 70 Colombia ......................................................................................................................................... 70 Jamaica ........................................................................................................................................... 71 Mexico ............................................................................................................................................. 71 Peru................................................................................................................................................. 72 Venezuela ....................................................................................................................................... 73 Asia Pacific ........................................................................................................................................ 74 Afghanistan ..................................................................................................................................... 78 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 3
  4. 4. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Australia .......................................................................................................................................... 79 Bangladesh ..................................................................................................................................... 79 China ............................................................................................................................................... 80 Hong Kong ...................................................................................................................................... 81 India ................................................................................................................................................ 82 Indonesia......................................................................................................................................... 82 Japan .............................................................................................................................................. 83 Kazakhstan ..................................................................................................................................... 84 Malaysia .......................................................................................................................................... 84 New Zealand ................................................................................................................................... 85 Pakistan .......................................................................................................................................... 85 The Philippines ................................................................................................................................ 86 Singapore ........................................................................................................................................ 87 South Korea .................................................................................................................................... 87 Taiwan............................................................................................................................................. 88 Thailand .......................................................................................................................................... 89 Vietnam ........................................................................................................................................... 90 Africa and Middle East ....................................................................................................................... 91 Algeria ............................................................................................................................................. 95 Angola ............................................................................................................................................. 96 Bahrain ............................................................................................................................................ 96 DR of Congo ................................................................................................................................... 97 Egypt ............................................................................................................................................... 97 Ghana ............................................................................................................................................. 98 Iran .................................................................................................................................................. 99 Iraq ................................................................................................................................................ 100 Israel ............................................................................................................................................. 100 Jordan ........................................................................................................................................... 101 Kenya ............................................................................................................................................ 101 Kuwait ........................................................................................................................................... 102 Lesotho ......................................................................................................................................... 102 Morocco ........................................................................................................................................ 103 Mozambique .................................................................................................................................. 103 Nigeria ........................................................................................................................................... 104 Oman ............................................................................................................................................ 105 Qatar ............................................................................................................................................. 105 Saudi Arabia.................................................................................................................................. 106 South Africa................................................................................................................................... 106 Sudan ............................................................................................................................................ 107 Syria .............................................................................................................................................. 108 Tanzania ....................................................................................................................................... 108 Tunisia........................................................................................................................................... 109 The UAE........................................................................................................................................ 109 Uganda.......................................................................................................................................... 110 Mobile Handset Market ........................................................................................................112 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 112 Major Handset Vendors ................................................................................................................... 114 Nokia ............................................................................................................................................. 115 Samsung ....................................................................................................................................... 117 LG ................................................................................................................................................. 119 Sony Ericsson ............................................................................................................................... 121 Motorola ........................................................................................................................................ 123 Apple ............................................................................................................................................. 125 RIM................................................................................................................................................ 127 Mobile Infrastructure Market ...............................................................................................130 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 130 Future Outlook ................................................................................................................................. 130 Major Mobile Infrastructure Vendors ................................................................................................ 131 Alcatel-Lucent ............................................................................................................................... 132 Ericsson ........................................................................................................................................ 134 Nokia Siemens Networks .............................................................................................................. 137 ZTE ............................................................................................................................................... 139 Huawei Technologies .................................................................................................................... 141 Mobile Marketing Data .........................................................................................................145 4 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  5. 5. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Penetration — Top 20 Mobile Markets ................................................................................. 145 Mobile Penetration in Youth Segment — Top 20 Mobile Markets .................................................... 146 Data ARPU — Top 20 Mobile Markets ............................................................................................ 147 Key Telecom Technologies .................................................................................................149 Technologies ................................................................................................................................... 149 2G ................................................................................................................................................. 149 2.5G/2.75G.................................................................................................................................... 149 3G ................................................................................................................................................. 151 3.5G .............................................................................................................................................. 152 4G ................................................................................................................................................. 153 Network Components and Services ................................................................................................. 154 Backhaul ....................................................................................................................................... 154 Base Transceiver Station (BTS) .................................................................................................... 154 Mobile Services Switching Center (MSC)...................................................................................... 154 Node-B .......................................................................................................................................... 154 IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) .................................................................................................... 154 Radio Access Network (RAN) ....................................................................................................... 155 Remote Access Virtual Private Network (VPN) ............................................................................. 155 Short Message Service Centre (SMSC) ........................................................................................ 155 Multimedia Message Service Centre (MMSC) .............................................................................. 155 SS7 ............................................................................................................................................... 156 Femtocell....................................................................................................................................... 156 Thin Client ..................................................................................................................................... 156 Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) ................................................................................................................ 156 National leased lines ..................................................................................................................... 157 International Private Leased Circuit (IPLC) ................................................................................... 157 Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT)........................................................................................... 157 Managed Services......................................................................................................................... 157 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) ............................................................................................... 157 PCS networks ............................................................................................................................... 157 Orthogonal variable spreading factor (OVSF) ............................................................................... 158 Mobile Services................................................................................................................................ 158 Instant Messaging ......................................................................................................................... 158 Enterprise Services ....................................................................................................................... 158 Mobile e-mail ................................................................................................................................. 159 Location Based Services ............................................................................................................... 159 Mobile Video Service Technologies .............................................................................................. 159 Mobile Gaming Services ............................................................................................................... 160 Augmented Reality (AR)................................................................................................................ 160 Cloud Computing .......................................................................................................................... 160 Appendices ...........................................................................................................................162 Glossary ........................................................................................................................................ 163 Portio Research Classifications ..................................................................................................... 175 Companies Mentioned in this Report ............................................................................................ 176 About the Authors.......................................................................................................................... 186 Also available from Portio Research Limited ................................................................................. 187 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 5
  6. 6. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 List of Figures Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5: Figure 6: Figure 7: Figure 8: Figure 9: Figure 10: Figure 11: Figure 12: Figure 13: Figure 14: Figure 15: Figure 16: Figure 17: Figure 18: Figure 19: Figure 20: Figure 21: Figure 22: Figure 23: Figure 24: Figure 25: Figure 26: Figure 27: Figure 28: Figure 29: Figure 30: Figure 31: Figure 32: Figure 33: Figure 34: Figure 35: Figure 36: Figure 37: Figure 38: Figure 39: Figure 40: Figure 41: Figure 42: Figure 43: Figure 44: Figure 45: Figure 46: Figure 47: Figure 48: Figure 49: 6 Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................. 14 Mobile Service Revenues — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................... 15 Mobile Handset Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F) ..................................................... 15 Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2015F)............................................... 16 Revenues of Major Industries — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009) ........................... 17 Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries — Year-on-year Growth in Revenue (2009) ...... 17 Mobile Handset and TV Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009 & 2010F) ....................................... 18 Mobile Subscribers and Internet Users — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 & End 2010F)................... 19 Mobile Subscribers and Internet Users — The US, the UK and BRIC Nations (In Million, End 2010F) 19 Break-out of Fortune Global 500 Companies by Industry (Worldwide, End 2009) ................................ 20 Performance Comparison of Market Leaders across Various Industries (End 2009) ............................ 22 Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................. 26 Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base — Regional Contribution (2010F) ................................................. 27 Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base — Regional Contribution (2015F) ................................................. 28 Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .. 29 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................................................................................................................. 30 Technology Forecast — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................................. 31 Mobile Subscribers — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................ 32 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................................................................................................................... 34 Technology Forecast — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 36 Mobile Subscribers — Eastern Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 47 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Eastern Europe (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................................................................................................................. 49 Technology Forecast — Eastern Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ...................................... 51 Mobile Subscribers — North America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 61 Technology Forecast — North America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................ 63 Mobile Subscribers — Latin America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 65 Top 5 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Latin America (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................................................................................................................. 66 Technology Forecast — Latin America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 68 Mobile Subscribers — Asia Pacific (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F)................................................ 74 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Asia Pacific (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................................................................................................................. 76 Technology Forecast — Asia Pacific (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................. 78 Mobile Subscribers — Africa and Middle East (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................. 91 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Africa and Middle East (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................................................................................................... 93 Technology Forecast — Africa and Middle East (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................... 95 Mobile Handset Shipments Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F) ....................................................... 112 Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) ............................................................................................................................................................ 112 Market Share — Handset Vendors (Q2 2010)..................................................................................... 114 Market Share — Nokia (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ................................................................... 115 Market Share — Samsung (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ............................................................. 117 Market Share — LG (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ....................................................................... 119 Market Share — Sony Ericsson (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ..................................................... 121 Market Share — Motorola (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) .............................................................. 123 Market Share — Apple (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ................................................................... 125 Market Share — RIM (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010)...................................................................... 127 Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F)............................................. 130 Market Share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors (Q2 2010) .................................................................. 131 Revenues – Alcatel-Lucent (In USD million, Q2 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................................... 132 Revenue Break-out by Geography – Alcatel-Lucent (Q2 2010) .......................................................... 133 Revenues – Ericsson (In USD million, Q2 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................................................... 134 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  7. 7. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 50: Figure 51: Figure 52: Figure 53: Figure 54: Figure 55: Figure 56: Figure 57: Figure 58: Figure 59: Figure 60: Figure 61: Figure 62: Figure 63: Revenue Break-out by Geography – Ericsson (Q2 2010) ................................................................... 135 Revenues – Nokia Siemens Networks (In USD million, Q2 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 137 Revenue Break-out by Geography – Nokia Siemens Networks (Q2 2010) ......................................... 138 Revenues – ZTE (In USD million, 2008 – H1 2010) ............................................................................ 139 Revenue Break-out by Geography – ZTE (H1 2010) .......................................................................... 140 Revenues – Huawei (In USD million, 2008-2009) ............................................................................... 141 Revenue Break-out by Geography – Huawei (2009) ........................................................................... 142 Technology Evolution – 2G ................................................................................................................. 149 Technology Evolution –2.5G and 2.75G.............................................................................................. 150 Technology Evolution – 3G ................................................................................................................. 151 Technology Evolution – 3.5G .............................................................................................................. 152 Technology Evolution – 4G ................................................................................................................. 153 Network Architecture — Wireless Networks ........................................................................................ 155 Femtocells: How they Operate? .......................................................................................................... 156 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 7
  8. 8. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 List of Tables Table 1: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Table 6: Table 7: Table 8: Table 9: Table 10: Table 11: Table 12: Table 13: Table 14: Table 15: Table 16: Table 17: Table 18: Table 19: Table 20: Table 21: Table 22: Table 23: Table 24: Table 25: Table 26: Table 27: Table 28: Table 29: Table 30: Table 31: Table 32: Table 33: Table 34: Table 35: Table 36: Table 37: Table 38: Table 39: Table 40: Table 41: Table 42: Table 43: Table 44: Table 45: Table 46: Table 47: Table 48: Table 49: Table 50: Table 51: Table 52: Table 53: Table 54: Table 55: 8 KPIs of Market Leaders Across Various Industries (End 2008 & End 2009) ......................................... 21 KPIs of Leading MNOs in Global Fortune 500 Companies (End 2008 & End 2009) ............................. 23 Revenue Per Employee and Operating Profit Per Employee of Leading MNOs (In USD, End 2009) ... 24 Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................. 27 Top 10 Countries by Q2 2010 Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Million, Q2 2010) ................ 28 Top 10 Markets by Mobile Subscriber Base Growth (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ......................... 29 Top 10 Operators by Q2 2010 Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Million, Q1 2010 & Q2 2010) .............................................................................................................................................................. 31 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ....... 33 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Million, Q2 2010) ..................... 35 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Austria (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 36 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Austria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 36 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Belgium (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 37 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Belgium (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 37 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Denmark (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 37 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Denmark (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 38 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Finland (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 38 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Finland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 38 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — France (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 39 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — France (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 39 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Germany (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 39 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Germany (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 40 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Ireland (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 40 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Ireland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 41 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Italy (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................. 41 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Italy (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................................ 41 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The Netherlands (End 2009 – End 2015F).............................. 42 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The Netherlands (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................ 42 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Norway (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 42 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Norway (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 42 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Portugal (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................... 43 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Portugal (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)...................................... 43 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Spain (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................... 43 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Spain (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010).......................................... 43 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Sweden (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 44 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Sweden (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 44 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Switzerland (End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 45 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Switzerland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................ 45 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The UK (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 45 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The UK (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 46 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Eastern Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........ 48 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Eastern Europe (In Million, Q2 2010) ...................... 50 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Belarus (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 51 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Belarus (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 51 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Bulgaria (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 52 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Bulgaria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 52 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Croatia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 52 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Croatia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 52 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Czech Republic (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................... 53 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Czech Republic (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .......................... 53 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Greece (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 53 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Greece (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 53 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Hungary (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 54 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Hungary (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 54 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Lithuania (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 54 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Lithuania (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 55 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  9. 9. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 56: Table 57: Table 58: Table 59: Table 60: Table 61: Table 62: Table 63: Table 64: Table 65: Table 66: Table 67: Table 68: Table 69: Table 70: Table 71: Table 72: Table 73: Table 74: Table 75: Table 76: Table 77: Table 78: Table 79: Table 80: Table 81: Table 82: Table 83: Table 84: Table 85: Table 86: Table 87: Table 88: Table 89: Table 90: Table 91: Table 92: Table 93: Table 94: Table 95: Table 96: Table 97: Table 98: Table 99: Table 100: Table 101: Table 102: Table 103: Table 104: Table 105: Table 106: Table 107: Table 108: Table 109: Table 110: Table 111: Table 112: Table 113: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Poland (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 55 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Poland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 55 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Romania (End 2009 – End 2015F).......................................... 56 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Romania (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)..................................... 56 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Russia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 56 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Russia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 57 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Serbia (End 2009 – End 2015F).............................................. 57 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Serbia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 57 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Slovakia (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 58 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Slovakia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 58 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Turkey (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 58 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Turkey (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 59 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Ukraine (End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................ 60 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Ukraine (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)....................................... 60 Countries’ Mobile Subscriber Base — North America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................. 62 Top Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — North America (In Million, Q2 2010) ............................. 62 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Canada (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 63 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Canada (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 63 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The US (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 64 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The US (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 64 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Latin America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........... 66 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Latin America (In Million, Q2 2010) ......................... 67 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Argentina (End 2009 – End 2015F)......................................... 68 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Argentina (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010).................................... 68 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Brazil (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................... 69 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Brazil (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .......................................... 69 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Chile (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................ 70 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Chile (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................... 70 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Colombia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 70 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Colombia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 70 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Jamaica (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................... 71 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Jamaica (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)...................................... 71 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Mexico (End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................. 71 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Mexico (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 72 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Peru (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................ 72 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Peru (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................... 72 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Venezuela (End 2009 – End 2015F) ....................................... 73 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Venezuela (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................. 73 Major Markets’ Subscriber Base — Asia Pacific (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................... 75 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Asia Pacific (In Million, Q2 2010)............................. 77 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Afghanistan (End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 78 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Afghanistan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................ 78 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Australia (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 79 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Australia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 79 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Bangladesh (End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 79 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Bangladesh (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................ 80 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — China (End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................... 80 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — China (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ......................................... 80 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Hong Kong (End 2009 – End 2015F) ...................................... 81 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Hong Kong (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................. 81 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — India (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................ 82 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — India (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................... 82 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Indonesia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................ 82 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Indonesia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................... 83 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Japan (End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................................. 83 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Japan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ......................................... 83 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Kazakhstan (End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 84 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Kazakhstan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................ 84 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 9
  10. 10. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 114: Table 115: Table 116: Table 117: Table 118: Table 119: Table 120: Table 121: Table 122: Table 123: Table 124: Table 125: Table 126: Table 127: Table 128: Table 129: Table 130: Table 131: Table 132: Table 133: Table 134: Table 135: Table 136: Table 137: Table 138: Table 139: Table 140: Table 141: Table 142: Table 143: Table 144: Table 145: Table 146: Table 147: Table 148: Table 149: Table 150: Table 151: Table 152: Table 153: Table 154: Table 155: Table 156: Table 157: Table 158: Table 159: Table 160: Table 161: Table 162: Table 163: Table 164: Table 165: Table 166: Table 167: Table 168: Table 169: Table 170: 10 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Malaysia (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 84 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Malaysia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 84 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — New Zealand (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................... 85 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — New Zealand (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .............................. 85 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Pakistan (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 85 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Pakistan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 86 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The Philippines (End 2009 – End 2015F)................................ 86 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The Philippines (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .......................... 86 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Singapore (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................ 87 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Singapore (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)................................... 87 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — South Korea (End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................... 87 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — South Korea (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................... 88 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Taiwan (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 88 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Taiwan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 88 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Thailand (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 89 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Thailand (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 89 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Vietnam (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 90 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Vietnam (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 90 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Africa and Middle East (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................................................................................................................................................. 92 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Africa and Middle East (In Million, Q2 2010) ........... 94 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Algeria (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 95 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Algeria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 95 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Angola (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 96 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Angola (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 96 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Bahrain (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................... 96 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Bahrain (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)....................................... 96 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — DR of Congo (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................... 97 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — DR of Congo (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .............................. 97 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Egypt (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................... 97 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Egypt (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010).......................................... 98 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Ghana (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 98 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Ghana (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 99 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Iran (End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................. 99 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Iran (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)............................................. 99 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Iraq (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................ 100 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Iraq (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................... 100 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Israel (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 100 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Israel (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 100 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Jordan (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 101 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Jordan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 101 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Kenya (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 101 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Kenya (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)....................................... 101 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Kuwait (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 102 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Kuwait (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 102 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Lesotho (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 102 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Lesotho (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 102 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Morocco (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................ 103 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Morocco (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................... 103 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Mozambique (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................. 103 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Mozambique (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................ 103 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Nigeria (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................... 104 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Nigeria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 104 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Oman (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 105 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Oman (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 105 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Qatar (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 105 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Qatar (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 105 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Saudi Arabia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................. 106 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  11. 11. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 171: Table 172: Table 173: Table 174: Table 175: Table 176: Table 177: Table 178: Table 179: Table 180: Table 181: Table 182: Table 183: Table 184: Table 185: Table 186: Table 187: Table 188: Table 189: Table 190: Table 191: Table 192: Table 193: Table 194: Table 195: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Saudi Arabia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................ 106 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — South Africa (End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................. 106 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — South Africa (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................. 107 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Sudan (End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................ 107 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Sudan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 107 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Syria (End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................................. 108 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Syria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)......................................... 108 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Tanzania (End 2009 – End 2015F) ....................................... 108 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Tanzania (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................. 108 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Tunisia (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 109 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Tunisia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 109 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The UAE (End 2009 – End 2015F) ....................................... 109 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The UAE (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................. 110 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Uganda (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 110 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Uganda (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 110 Mobile Handset Shipments — Leading Vendors (In Million, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) .............................. 113 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Nokia (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010)................................... 115 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Samsung (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ............................. 117 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — LG (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 119 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Sony Ericsson (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ..................... 121 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Motorola (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) .............................. 123 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Apple (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010)................................... 125 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — RIM (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 127 Top 20 Markets by Mobile Subscriber Base and their Penetration — Worldwide (Q2 2010) ............. 145 Youth Mobile Penetration in the Top 20 Mobile Subscribers Markets — Worldwide (In Percent, Q2 2010) .................................................................................................................................................. 146 Table 196: Monthly Mobile Data ARPU in the Top 20 Mobile Subscribers Markets — Worldwide (In USD, Q2 2010) .................................................................................................................................................. 147 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 11
  12. 12. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chapter 1 Introduction 12 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  13. 13. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Introduction Worldwide Mobile Market Mobile communications has undoubtedly revolutionised the telecommunications industry. Year after year the mobile market has reported significant growth worldwide. The exceptional growth in Western markets is mirrored by that in the emerging markets of Asia Pacific, and it has now smoothly transitioned in the Africa and Middle East region also. Advanced networks, attractive tariff plans, affordable handsets and the availability of enhanced data services such as mobile apps, mobile payments and high-speed mobile Internet have fuelled the growth and increased demand manifold over the essential. However, intense competition, fierce price wars and commoditisation of voice in some markets have led to a decline in average revenue per user (ARPU). As a result, MNOs are focussing on offering valueadded services to increase per-user revenue. Also, they are taking initiatives to increase and maintain their subscriber base, through wider network areas and upgraded networks. The section below briefly discusses the four major aspects of the mobile industry — Subscribers, Revenues, Handsets and Infrastructure.1 Subscribers • • • • 1 The number of mobile subscribers worldwide stood at 4.7 billion at end-2009. The subscriber base is forecast to increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.9 percent between 2009 and 2015 to reach nearly 7.4 billion by end-2015. The emerging markets of Asia Pacific, and Africa and Middle East, with a CAGR of more than 10 percent over 2009–2015, are expected to drive growth of the worldwide mobile subscriber base. The advanced markets of North America and Western Europe are approaching saturation, with most of the markets having close to or more than 100 percent mobile penetration. Mobile subscribers worldwide are gradually shifting to 3G and higher networks, and users in these segments are forecast to account for over 60 percent of total subscribers by end-2015 as against 16.7 percent at end-2009. Note: All numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 13
  14. 14. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 1: Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 10000 8000 6000 5,254.6 5,787.1 6,262.5 6,675.1 7,037.9 7,351.5 4,655.8 4000 2000 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Revenues • • • • 2, 3 14 In 2009, mobile services generated over USD 1 trillion in revenues worldwide, and this is now expected to reach over USD 1.7 trillion by end-2015.2 Service revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8.7 percent between 2009 and 2015. Service revenue growth is expected to outpace mobile subscriber growth by end-2012; the launch of advanced network technologies, such as LTE and WiMAX will significantly boost the uptake of data services and, in turn, higher data revenues in developed markets. The emerging markets are also witnessing an upward trend in the adoption of data services, offering impetus to service revenues. Mobile ARPU is declining worldwide due to increased acquisition of users in the low-value and rural segments, fierce price competition and commoditisation of voice services. Note: All numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  15. 15. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 2: Mobile Service Revenues — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Service Revenues (In USD Billion) 2000 1600 1200 1,053.0 1,174.9 1,416.2 1,292.5 1,531.4 1,737.8 1,639.2 800 400 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Handsets • • • • • Handset shipments are forecast to total 1.3 billion at end-2010, 142 million more than that in 2009. With a market share of nearly 35 percent in Q2 2010, Nokia still leads the handset vendor market; Samsung and LG jointly account for nearly one-third share of the handset vendor market. With a year-on-year decline of over 40 percent in market share from Q2 2009 to Q2 2010, Motorola and Sony Ericsson are worst hit by the economic downturn. With the launch of iPhone OS4, Apple recorded an increase in handset shipments in the first half of 2010 as compared with that in the first half of 2009, leading to an increased market share. The strongly evolving mobile enterprise segment continues to underpin the growth of BlackBerry and also other vendors focusing on the enterprise segment, such as Microsoft and HTC. Figure 3: Mobile Handset Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F) Mobile Handset Shipments (In Million) 1,800 1,600.3 1,752.4 1,687.5 1,481.7 1,307.9 1,400 1,375.4 1,165.6 1,000 600 200 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 15
  16. 16. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Infrastructure • • • • Mobile infrastructure expenditure recorded a dip in 2009 since mobile operators limited their expenditure on infrastructure due to the economic downturn; equipment spend in 2008 was USD 57.6 billion, which reduced to USD 52 billion in 2009. Mobile equipment spend is expected to reach USD 54 billion at end-2010, exhibiting a growth rate of 3.8 percent year-on-year. Transition to advanced network technologies such as LTE, 4G and WiMAX as well as the expansion of network coverage areas will call for higher equipment spend over coming years. Since the deployment cycle for 2G is approaching maturity, particularly in developed markets, equipment spend on 2G and 3G networks will start declining from 2015 onwards, and it will primarily include network maintenance and upgrades. Thus, we expect a drop in equipment spend in 2015. Naturally, as-yet unknown new technological advances between now and 2015 may change this picture once that time comes. 3 Figure 4: Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2015F) Mobile Equipment Spend (In USD Billion) 80 62.2 60 52.0 54.0 63.3 64.5 57.3 50.3 40 20 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 3 Note: Mobile equipment spend does not include services and solutions expenditure. According to Portio estimates, mobile equipment spend currently forms nearly two-thirds of the total mobile infrastructure spend. 16 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  17. 17. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile and Other Major Industries Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Major Industries The mobile market, in terms of revenue generated in 2009, has outperformed the Software and • Services, Pharmaceuticals, IT Hardware and Semiconductor markets. Of these five markets, mobile services exhibited the highest growth in 2008–2009, followed by • Software and Services. The IT hardware industry was worse affected by the recession and witnessed a decline of 9.7 • percent in 2009 as compared with that in 2008. Figure 5: Revenues of Major Industries — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009) Revenues (In USD Billion) 1200 1000 1,053.0 967.0 912.2 912.1 837.0 735.0 800 594.0 600 536.3 400 249.0 200 228.4 0 Mobile Services Software and Services Pharmaceuticals IT Hardware Semiconductor Industry 2008 2009 Source: Portio Research Ltd. Figure 6: Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries — Year-on-year Growth in Revenue (2009) Semiconductors -8.3% IT Hardware -9.7% Pharmaceuticals Software and Services 13.9% -5.7% Mobile Services -15% -10% -5% 23.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 17
  18. 18. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile and Other Media Mobile vs TV • • In 2010, worldwide mobile handset shipments are expected to witness an annual growth of nearly 12 percent, whereas television shipments are expected to grow by around 2 percent.4 Smartphones, along with advanced and high speed network technologies, promise to offer TV– like experience to mobile subscribers on-the-move. The adoption of smartphones is expected to drive the growth of mobile TV. 5 Figure 7: Mobile Handset and TV Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009 & 2010F) 1,307.9 Mobile Handsets and TV Sets (In Million) 1400 1200 1,165.6 1000 800 600 400 200 167.3 163.5 0 2009 Mobile Handsets 2010F Year TV Sets Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Mobile vs Internet • • • • 4 5 In 2010, mobile subscribers are expected to be more than double the number of Internet users. In 2010, the mobile subscriber base is expected to witness an annual growth of nearly 13 percent, whereas the Internet user base is forecast to grow by around 8 percent Mobile Internet has changed the way people work, play and communicate - it enables users to perform tasks which could previously only be performed on desktops and laptops and it provides access to a vast pool of information on-the-go. MNOs worldwide have taken several initiatives to cater to the increasing uptake of mobile Internet services, including the deployment of advanced and high-speed mobile networks. Note: All the numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated. Note: TV sets shipments have been calculated by subtracting year-end figures of TV sets. 18 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  19. 19. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 8: Mobile Subscribers and Internet Users — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 & End 2010F) Mobile and Internet Users (In Million) 6000 5,254.6 4,655.8 5000 4000 3000 2,260.7 2,085.7 2000 1000 0 2009 2010F Year Mobile Subscribers Internet Users Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted • • • • In 2010, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations together will have more than 550 million Internet users, nearly 25 percent of the total Internet users worldwide. The gap between mobile subscribers and Internet users is wider in emerging markets such as BRIC nations, as compared to that in advanced markets, such as the US and the UK. Low PC penetration in emerging markets has spurred the uptake of mobile for access to the Internet. Also, for many people in emerging markets, accessing the Internet on a mobile handset is a cheaper alternative than buying a PC or paying for a broadband connection. Figure 9: Mobile Subscribers and Internet Users — The US, the UK and BRIC Nations (In Million, End 2010F) 835.0 Mobile and Internet Users (In Million) 900 800 702.2 700 600 500 400 300 349.4 310.3 261.5 218.8 200 82.8 50.1 100 82.3 195.1 61.4 58.9 0 The US The UK China India Russia Brazil Country Mobile Subscribers Internet Users Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 19
  20. 20. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Performance Comparison – Major Mobile Companies vs Other Big Companies The following section briefly compares the performance of mobile companies with those companies operating in other major industries. Telecommunications vs Other Industries in Fortune Global 500 • • • With 18 mobile companies listed in the ‘Fortune Global 500’, Telecommunications is among the top five industries worldwide, ranked at number five in terms of number of companies listed in the ‘Fortune Global 500’. The ‘Banks: Commercial and Savings’ industry has the highest number of companies, nearly 55, listed in the ‘Fortune Global 500’. Other major industries are Petroleum Refining, Motor Vehicles and Parts, and Food and Drug Stores. Figure 10: Break-out of Fortune Global 500 Companies by Industry (Worldwide, End 2009) 67.8% 3.6% 4.4% 5.6% 7.6% 11.0% Banks: Commercial and Savings Petroleum Refining Motor Vehicles and Parts Food and Drug Stores Telecommunications Others Source: Fortune Magazine, Portio Research Ltd. 20 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  21. 21. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Leading Mobile Operators vs Other Big Companies in Fortune Global 500 • AT&T, in terms of revenues generated in 2009, has outperformed other big companies such as Hewlett Packard (HP), IBM, Microsoft, Nokia and Intel. • In 2009, Royal Dutch Shell and Toyota Motors generated more revenues than AT&T; however, AT&T surpassed both those companies in terms of operating profit. • Among the companies mentioned, AT&T generated the third highest operating profit in 2009, approximately USD 21.5 billion. Table 1: KPIs of Market Leaders Across Various Industries (End 2008 & End 2009) 8 2008 6 Company 7 Industry 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 Market Cap (In USD 9 Billion) Revenue (In USD Million) Operating Profit (In USD Million) Employees (FY: Feb to Jan) General Merchandiser 404,374.0 408,214.0 22,798.0 23,950.0 1,600,000 2,100,000 194.4 Royal Dutch Shell Petroleum Refining 470,940.0 285,129.0 44,530.0 17,960.0 102,000 101,000 82.3 Motor Vehicles and Parts 205,295.7 204,291.5 -4,610.1 1,590.2 300,000 320,590 123.2 Telecommunications 124,028.0 123,018.0 23,063.0 21,492.0 302,660 282,720 169.1 Food and Drug Stores 129,829.6 121,861.4 4,103.6 2,377.8 495,287 475,976 38.0 Computers, Office Equipment 118,364.0 114,552.0 10,473.0 10,136.0 321,000 304,000 97.1 IT services 103,630.0 95,758.0 15,938.0 17,013.0 398,455 399,409 175.4 Computer software 58,437.0 62,484.0 20,363.0 24,098.0 93,000 89,000 217.7 Pharmaceuticals 63,747.0 61,897.0 16,929.0 15,755.0 118,700 115,500 175.2 Network and Other Communications Equipment 74,611.7 57,157.5 7,306.7 1,669.4 121,723 123,171 43.0 Semiconductors and other Electronic Components 37,586.0 35,127.0 8,499.0 5,711.0 83,900 79,800 109.4 Walmart (FY: Jan to Dec) Toyota Motor (FY: Apr to Mar) AT&T (FY: Jan to Dec) Carrefour (FY: Jan to Dec) HP (FY: Nov to Oct) IBM (FY: Jan to Dec) 10 Microsoft (FY: Jul to Jun) Johnson & Johnson (FY: Jan to Dec) Nokia (FY: Jan to Dec) Intel (FY: Jan to Dec) 6 Note: FY represents the financial year of the company Note: Industry Classification is as defined by Fortune magazine for Fortune Global 500 8 Note: Revenues listed here are for the financial year (mentioned in the first column) of the company 9 Note: Market Capitalisation is as of 20 October 2010 10 Note: With reference to our previous report ‘Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014’, Microsoft’s operating profit for 2008 has been revised because our source has updated the operating profit data for 2008 7 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 21
  22. 22. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 11: Performance Comparison of Market Leaders across Various Industries (End 2009) Bubble Size correlates to company's market cap 35 Operating Profit (In Milion) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 0 100 200 300 400 500 Revenue (In Million) AT&T Carrefour Hewlett-Packard (HP) IBM Intel Johnson & Johnson Microsoft Nokia Royal Dutch Shell Toyota Motor Walmart Source: Portio Research Ltd. KPIs of Leading MNOs in Fortune Global 500 • • • 22 In 2009, AT&T Group, NTT Group, Verizon Communications, Deutsche Telekom and Telefonica Group were the top five telecom performers in terms of revenue generation. Telefonica Group generated the highest operating profit among all the leading companies mentioned in the following table. Among the companies mentioned, China Telecom registered the highest growth in terms of revenues and operating profit from 2008 to 2009. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  23. 23. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 2: KPIs of Leading MNOs in Global Fortune 500 Companies (End 2008 & End 2009) 12 11 Company AT&T Group (FY: Jan to Dec) NTT Group (FY: Apr to Mar) Verizon Communications 13 Rank in Fortune Global 500 Companies 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 21 124,028.0 123,018.0 23,063.0 21,492.0 302,660 282,720 31 104,163.0 109,755.5 11,098.0 12,048.8 196,296 194,982 35 97,354.0 107,808.0 16,884.0 14,027.0 223,900 222,900 59 90,731.7 90,095.9 10,358.2 8,384.5 235,000 258,000 68 84,303.6 79,118.8 29,216.1 31,522.8 257,035 257,000 77 60,160.8 66,282.8 22,073.6 22,553.9 138,368 145,954 80 70,617.3 70,992.4 10,083.8 15,133.3 79,097 85,000 105 78,699.0 64,074.9 15,113.6 10,960.4 30,000 181,000 181 42,668.9 37,882.3 7,999.7 7,660.7 75,320 71,384 189 37,360.3 37,839.1 6,267.9 5,349.8 44,243 48,284 193 35,605.0 36,996.0 4,512.0 4,771.0 16,967 18,301 204 26,888.2 30,695.7 741.7 3,321.9 314,541 312,520 230 35,635.0 32,260.0 -2,642.0 -1,398.0 56,000 40,000 263 26,730.4 29,789.5 3,591.2 5,022.1 21,048 21,885 269 31,347.5 29,327.0 8,665.1 7,742.7 52,879 53,661 368 21,464.8 22,569.9 1,173.5 1,799.9 205,200 216,830 458 25,507.0 24,917.0 6,558.0 6,501.0 43,181 45,220 459 21,484.5 18,840.1 3,821.1 3,974.7 34,925 40,116 Revenue (In USD Million) Operating Profit (In USD Million) Employees (FY: Jan to Dec) Deutsche Telekom (FY: Jan to Dec) Telefonica Group (FY: Jan to Dec) China Mobile (FY: Jan to Dec) Vodafone Group (FY: Apr to Mar) France Telecom Group (FY: Jan to Dec) Telecom Italia (FY: Jan to Dec) Vivendi (FY: Jan to Dec) KDDI (FY: Apr to Mar) China Telecom (FY: Jan to Dec) Sprint Nextel (FY: Jan to Dec) Softbank Group (FY: Apr to Mar) America Movil (FY: Jan to Dec) China Unicom (FY: Jan to Dec) Telstra (FY: Jul to Jun) KPN (FY: Jan to Dec) 11 Note: FY represents the financial year of the company Note: Company ranks have been sourced from the Global Fortune 500 list. 13 Note: Revenues listed here are for the financial year (mentioned in the first column) of the company. Revenues have been sourced from respective companies’ annual reports and may not match with the Fortune 500 ranking source. 12 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 23
  24. 24. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 • • • KDDI generated both the highest revenue per employee and highest operating profit per employee (among the companies mentioned in the following table) in 2009. Sprint Nextel registered the highest growth in revenue per employee from 2008 to 2009 of nearly 27 percent, followed by China Telecom with 15 percent.14 China Telecom witnessed the highest growth, approximately 350 percent, in operating profit per employee from 2008 to 2009, followed by China Unicom with over 45 percent. Table 3: Revenue Per Employee and Operating Profit Per Employee of Leading MNOs (In USD, End 2009) Company Company Operating Profit Per Employee (In USD) KDDI 2,021,528.9 KDDI 260,696.1 Softbank Group 1,361,184.2 Softbank Group 229,476.3 Vodafone Group 835,205.1 Vodafone Group 178,038.9 Sprint Nextel 806,500.0 China Mobile 154,527.4 Vivendi 783,677.8 America Movil 144,289.7 NTT Group 562,900.6 Telstra 143,763.8 Telstra 551,017.2 Telefonica Group 122,656.9 America Movil 546,524.1 Vivendi 110,798.6 Telecom Italia 530,683.8 Telecom Italia 107,316.8 Verizon Communications 483,660.8 KPN 99,080.1 KPN 469,639.5 AT&T Group 76,018.7 China Mobile 454,135.0 Verizon Communications 62,929.6 AT&T Group 435,123.1 NTT Group 61,794.5 France Telecom Group 354,004.9 France Telecom Group 60,554.7 Deutsche Telekom 349,208.9 Deutsche Telekom 32,498.1 Telefonica Group 307,855.1 China Telecom 10,629.4 China Unicom 104,090.2 China Unicom 8,301.1 China Telecom 14 Revenue Per Employee (In USD) 98,220.1 Sprint Nextel -34,950.0 Note: All numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated 24 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  25. 25. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chapter 2 Mobile Subscriber Base © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 25
  26. 26. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Subscriber Base Worldwide  The worldwide mobile subscriber base was 4.7 billion at end-2009, and is projected to reach 5.3 billion by end-2010 and 7.4 billion by end-2015.  Worldwide mobile subscriptions are anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 7.9 percent over 2009-2015.  The emerging markets of Asia Pacific and the Africa and Middle East region will lead the mobile subscriber base growth, while the advanced markets of North America and Western Europe will witness moderate growth. Figure 12: Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 10000 CAGR = 7.9% 8000 6000 5,254.6 5,787.1 6,262.5 6,675.1 7,037.9 7,351.5 4,655.8 4000 2000 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 26 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  27. 27. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 4: 15 Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F CAGR (In Percent, 2009– 2015) Western Europe 499.9 518.3 530.5 540.7 549.3 556.6 562.8 2.0 Eastern Europe 538.4 560.3 584.6 600.5 613.0 622.8 630.3 2.7 Asia Pacific 2,132.1 2,521.2 2,856.5 3,156.4 3,416.5 3,643.9 3,838.1 10.3 North America 313.5 334.6 352.1 368.0 382.2 395.0 406.3 4.4 Latin America 494.0 534.8 574.4 608.1 637.9 663.9 686.5 5.6 Africa and Middle East 677.9 785.4 889.0 988.8 1,076.1 1,155.7 1,227.5 10.4 Total 4,655.8 5,254.6 5,787.1 6,262.5 6,675.1 7,037.9 7,351.5 7.9 Region 16 Figure 13: Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base — Regional Contribution (2010F) 48.0% 6.4% 10.2% 14.9% 10.7% 9.9% Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 15 16 Note: The total number may not add up to the sum of regional numbers because of rounding-off errors. Note: The total is more than 100 percent due to rounding-off errors. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 27
  28. 28. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 14: Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base — Regional Contribution (2015F) 52.2% 5.5% 9.3% 16.7% 8.6% 7.7% Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted  Africa and Middle East will witness the largest subscriber growth with a CAGR of 10.4 percent between 2009 and 2015, followed by Asia Pacific with a CAGR of 10.3 percent during the same period.  The percentage contribution of the Asia Pacific region to the worldwide mobile subscriber base will increase significantly from 48.0 percent at end-2010 to 52.2 percent at end-2015; similarly, the percentage contribution of the Africa and Middle East region will also increase from 14.9 percent at end-2010 to 16.7 percent at end-2015. The percentage contribution of other regions is expected to decrease continuously over the same period. Table 5: Top 10 Countries by Q2 2010 Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Million, Q2 2010) Country CAGR (In Percent, 2009 – 2015) China 785.5 7.6 India 635.5 17.2 The US 298.9 4.5 Russia 215.1 3.3 Brazil 188.1 6.8 Indonesia 177.5 10.2 Vietnam 116.8 6.6 Japan 113.7 4.0 Germany 107.7 0.5 Pakistan 28 Mobile Subscribers (In Million, Q2 2010) 99.5 5.5 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  29. 29. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 6: Top 10 Markets by Mobile Subscriber Base Growth (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) Country Subscriber Growth (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) Subscriber Growth (In Percent, End 2009 – Q2 2010) India 110.4 21.0 China 59.6 8.2 Indonesia 17.5 10.9 Brazil 11.5 6.5 The Philippines 9.8 13.0 Vietnam 9.0 8.3 Nigeria 8.6 12.0 The US 8.5 2.9 Bangladesh 7.6 14.4 Russia 7.1 3.4 1000 833.3 800 600 402.4 71.6 63.3 54.0 49.9 Vietnam 85.4 The Philippines 87.3 Egypt 104.0 Bangladesh 126.4 200 Brazil 400 The US Mobile Subscriber Additions (In Million) Figure 15: Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Nigeria Indonesia China India 0 Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 29
  30. 30. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 16: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Percent, End 2009 – End 17 2015F) 21.3% 16.1% 15.4% 15.4% 13.1% 13.1% 12.9% 12% 11.5% 11.0% DR of Congo 17.2% 18% Qatar CAGR (In Percent) 24% 6% Mozambique Country Egypt Lesotho Bangladesh Uganda Nigeria India Sudan 0% Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted  China is still the largest mobile market worldwide in terms of mobile subscriber base; however, India, growing at more than double the CAGR of China, is expected to surpass China by end-2012.  With net addition of 110.4 million mobile subscribers from end-2009 to Q2 2010, India has witnessed the largest growth in terms of subscriber additions, followed by China and Indonesia.  Vietnam, though featuring at number six in terms of net mobile subscriber additions from end-2009 to end-June 2010, will witness a significant increase in mobile penetration from 120.9 at end-2009 to 133.8 percent by Q2 2010.  The top 10 countries worldwide, by mobile subscriber additions over 2009-2015, will be adding 1,878 million mobile subscribers over the next five years.  Countries from Asia Pacific and the Africa and Middle East regions are among the top 10 emerging markets with high CAGR, with Sudan, India and Nigeria as the fastest growing mobile markets worldwide over 2009-2015. 17 Note: CAGRs were calculated to four decimal places, with each country securing a distinct CAGR value. Due to rounding off to one decimal place, a few countries appear to have the same CAGR. 30 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  31. 31. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 7: 2010) Top 10 Operators by Q2 2010 Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Million, Q1 2010 & Q2 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Operator Q1 2010 Q2 2010 China Mobile 538.9 554.0 China Unicom 152.1 157.0 Bharti Airtel India 127.6 136.6 Reliance Communication India 102.4 110.8 Vodafone India 100.9 109.1 Verizon US 92.8 92.1 AT&T US 87.0 90.1 Telkomsel Indonesia 82.0 88.3 China Telecom 65.5 74.5 BSNL India 69.5 72.7  While the developed mobile markets of North America and Western Europe as well as a few countries in the Asia Pacific region, such as Japan, South Korea and Australia, have already witnessed nationwide deployment of 3G and 3.5G, the developing markets have also gained momentum for network upgrades to 3G and above technologies.  By end-2010, subscribers using 3G and above networks comprised nearly 22.5 percent of the total worldwide subscriber base; this is estimated to reach 64 percent by end-2015. Figure 17: Technology Forecast — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 8000 2,592.6 3,386.8 4,189.6 4,697.4 1,843.5 6000 1,181.9 779.5 4000 2000 3,876.3 4,072.7 3,943.6 3,669.9 3,288.3 2,848.3 2,654.1 2013F 2014F 2015F 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F Year 3G and above 2G and others Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 31
  32. 32. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Western Europe  Western Europe’s mobile subscriber base is forecast to grow from 518.3 million in 2010 to 562.8 million by end-2015.  The subscriber base will grow at a CAGR of 2 percent between 2009 and 2015.  Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom are the leading countries in the region in terms of subscriber base, with combined subscriber share estimated to reach 54.7 percent by end-2010.  Finland, Austria and Denmark are expected to be high-growth markets in the region. Figure 18: Mobile Subscribers — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 750 CAGR = 2.0% 518.3 530.5 540.7 549.3 556.6 562.8 499.9 2009 600 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 450 300 150 0 Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 32 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  33. 33. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 8: 18 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F CAGR (In Percent, 2009– 2015) Austria 11.3 12.4 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 6.1 Belgium 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 1.0 Denmark 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0 5.2 Finland 7.8 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.8 7.2 France 59.6 62.4 64.1 65.5 66.6 67.5 68.1 2.3 Germany 108.2 108.8 109.9 110.6 111.1 111.4 111.7 0.5 Ireland 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 1.6 Italy 87.9 92.1 92.9 93.5 93.9 94.2 94.5 1.2 The Netherlands 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 0.5 Norway 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 3.2 Portugal 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 2.6 Spain 53.8 57.8 60.2 62.3 64.2 65.9 67.4 3.8 Sweden 12.0 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.2 4.1 Switzerland 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 2.2 The UK 80.3 82.8 84.7 86.2 87.3 88.2 88.9 1.7 Country  The Finnish market is expected to have a mobile subscriber base of 11.8 million by end-2015, indicating a CAGR of 7.2 percent between 2009 and 2015.  Germany and the Netherlands are expected to witness negligible growth in mobile subscriber base between 2009 and 2015.  The leading operators by mobile subscriber base in Q2 2010 include: o T-Mobile Germany (37.0 million) o Vodafone Germany (34.9 million) o Telecom Italia Italy (30.5 million) o Vodafone Italy (30.4 million) 18 Note: The table covers selected major markets of the region, hence the sum of countries’ subscribers will not add up to the total regional subscriber base. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 33
  34. 34. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 19: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) 8% 7.2% 6.1% 4.1% 4% 3.8% 3.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% Switzerland 5.2% 6% France CAGR (In Percent) 10% 2% 1.7% The UK Portugal Norway Spain Sweden Denmark Austria Finland 0% Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 34 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  35. 35. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 9: Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Million, Q2 2010) 19 Operator Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Monthly ARPU (In USD) Churn (In Percent) T-Mobile Germany 37.0 20.5 2.8 Vodafone Germany 34.9 20.2 2.1 Telecom Italia 30.5 25.7 1.8 Vodafone Italy 30.4 26.5 2.1 Orange France 26.2 41.7 2.0 Movistar Spain 23.9 32.8 2.3 O2 UK 21.6 32.4 1.1 SFR France 20.6 44.3 NA E-Plus Germany 19.6 16.6 2.2 Wind Italy 19.3 16.0 2.1 Vodafone UK 18.9 30.7 3.4 T-Mobile UK 17.2 NA NA Vodafone Spain 16.8 33.9 2.3 Orange UK 16.4 NA NA O2 Germany 16.3 18.9 2.0 Orange Spain 11.3 28.3 2.3 Bouygues France 10.5 51.3 NA KPN Netherlands 10.0 32.0 NA 3 Italia 9.0 29.7 2.3 TMN Portugal 7.3 18.7 NA  The total number of 3G and above subscribers is expected to reach 550.7 million by end-2015, indicating a CAGR of 13.3 percent between 2009 and 2015.  By end-2010, subscribers using 3G and above networks comprised nearly 62.0 percent of the total subscriber base in the region; this is estimated to reach 98 percent by end-2015.  Advanced markets including Germany, Italy, the UK, France and Spain are expected to drive 3G growth in coming years 19 Note: On 1 July 2010, T-mobile UK and Orange UK merged to form a new operator ‘Everything Everywhere’. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 35
  36. 36. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 20 Figure 20: Technology Forecast — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 600 500 259.9 442.7 383.3 321.6 490.7 533.8 550.7 58.7 22.8 12.0 2013F 2014F 2015F 400 300 200 100 240.0 196.7 147.1 98.0 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F Year 3G and above 2G and others Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Austria Table 10: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Austria (End 2009 – End 2015F) Austria Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 11.3 12.4 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 Penetration (In Percent) 137.9 151.4 161.8 171.6 180.6 188.9 196.5 Table 11: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Austria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Mobilkom Austria 4.8 4.9 5.0 42.1 www.mobilkom.at T-Mobile 3.4 3.6 3.7 31.4 www.t-mobile.at Orange 2.2 2.2 2.1 18.2 www.orange.at 3 0.9 0.9 1.0 8.3 www.drei.at Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website 20 Note: The sum of 2G and others, and 3G and above subscribers may not add up to the region’s subscriber base due to rounding-off errors. 36 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  37. 37. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Belgium Table 12: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Belgium (End 2009 – End 2015F) Belgium Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 Penetration (In Percent) 118.9 120.6 122.5 123.9 124.8 125.5 125.9 Table 13: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Belgium (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Proximus (Belgacom) 5.1 5.0 5.0 40.2 www.proximus.be Mobistar 3.7 3.8 3.8 30.7 www.mobistar.be BASE (KPN) 3.6 3.6 3.6 29.1 www.base.be Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Denmark Table 14: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Denmark (End 2009 – End 2015F) Denmark Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0 Penetration (In Percent) 134.1 142.5 151.0 159.0 166.3 173.0 179.1 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 37
  38. 38. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 15: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Denmark (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) TDC 3.4 3.4 3.3 44.0 www.tdc.dk Sonofon 2.0 2.1 2.1 28.5 www.sonofon.dk Telia Denmark 1.5 1.5 1.5 20.0 www.telia.dk 3 0.5 0.5 0.6 7.5 www.3.dk Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Finland Table 16: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Finland (End 2009 – End 2015F) Finland Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 7.8 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.8 Penetration (In Percent) 148.6 161.1 175.4 188.9 201.6 213.5 224.4 Table 17: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Finland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Elisa 3.0 3.1 3.2 38.0 www.elisa.fi TeliaSonera 2.9 3.0 3.1 37.1 www.sonera.fi DNA 1.9 2.0 2.1 24.7 www.dna.fi Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 38 Website © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved

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