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Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011 2015

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Your essential guide to understanding the size, scope and major players of the worldwide mobile industry. …

Your essential guide to understanding the size, scope and major players of the worldwide mobile industry.

Serving as an invaluable guide for those in and outside the mobile space to enable better understanding of the worldwide mobile market, the third edition of this detailed and comprehensively updated handbook offers you all the essential market data required for business strategy and planning purposes, including: in-depth subscriber growth forecasts for leading countries, subscriber figures for key network operators across all major geographies, market share data, quarterly handset shipment figures, handset and infrastructure vendor profiles, analysis of popular handsets/smartphones, ARPU data, churn figures and so much more.

Other report features include an introduction with performance comparisons of mobile vs. other media and major industries, to demonstrate how massive mobile truly is, and briefings on the four major aspects of the mobile industry: subscribers, revenues, handsets and infrastructure.

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  • 1. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 1
  • 2. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Portio Research Limited. Published November 2010 by Portio Research Limited © Copyright 2010. www.portioresearch.com info@portioresearch.com Disclaimer and Legal Notices Disclaimer Every care has been taken in the preparation of this study to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, factual and correct to the best of our knowledge, at time of publishing. All opinions, suppositions, estimates and recommendations included in this document are solely the opinions of the authors unless otherwise stated. Portio Research Limited accepts no liability for any loss or damage or unforeseen consequential loss or damage arising from the use of the information contained within this document. The opinions, suppositions, estimates and recommendations within this document cannot be guaranteed, and readers use this information at their own risk. The information published in this document is subject to change without notice at any time, and Portio Research Limited accepts no liability or obligation to inform the reader of such changes. Portio Research Limited do not promote or endorse any specific companies or products, the views and opinions we express in this document are wholly our own assessments, and independent from any external interest or influence. Many terms and phrases and trade names used in this document are proprietary and Portio Research Limited recognises and acknowledges that all trademarks are copyright, belonging to their respective owners. Where possible, this document accords such terms and phrases and trade names to their respective owners. All Rights Reserved. No part of this document can be copied, shared, redistributed, transmitted, displayed in the public domain, stored or displayed on any internal or external company or private network or electronic retrieval system, nor reprinted, republished or reconstituted in any way without the express written permission of the publisher. Forwarding of this electronic document without the correct legal licence is theft. It’s unethical, immoral and against the law. If you have any questions about the legal licence conditions under which this document has been distributed, please contact Portio Research on info@portioresearch.com If you did not buy this document and a colleague or associate has sent it to you, do not assume you are legally entitled to read it, it is your responsibility to ensure you have the correct legal licence to read this document. 2 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 3. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................13 Worldwide Mobile Market................................................................................................................... 13 Subscribers ..................................................................................................................................... 13 Revenues ........................................................................................................................................ 14 Handsets ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Infrastructure ................................................................................................................................... 16 Mobile and Other Major Industries ..................................................................................................... 17 Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Major Industries ........................................................... 17 Mobile and Other Media..................................................................................................................... 18 Mobile vs TV ................................................................................................................................... 18 Mobile vs Internet ............................................................................................................................ 18 Performance Comparison – Major Mobile Companies vs Other Big Companies ............................... 20 Telecommunications vs Other Industries in Fortune Global 500 ..................................................... 20 KPIs of Leading MNOs in Fortune Global 500 ................................................................................ 22 Mobile Subscriber Base ........................................................................................................26 Worldwide .......................................................................................................................................... 26 Western Europe ................................................................................................................................. 32 Austria ............................................................................................................................................. 36 Belgium ........................................................................................................................................... 37 Denmark.......................................................................................................................................... 37 Finland ............................................................................................................................................ 38 France ............................................................................................................................................. 39 Germany ......................................................................................................................................... 39 Ireland ............................................................................................................................................. 40 Italy.................................................................................................................................................. 41 The Netherlands .............................................................................................................................. 42 Norway ............................................................................................................................................ 42 Portugal ........................................................................................................................................... 43 Spain ............................................................................................................................................... 43 Sweden ........................................................................................................................................... 44 Switzerland...................................................................................................................................... 45 The UK ............................................................................................................................................ 45 Eastern Europe .................................................................................................................................. 47 Belarus ............................................................................................................................................ 51 Bulgaria ........................................................................................................................................... 52 Croatia............................................................................................................................................. 52 Czech Republic ............................................................................................................................... 53 Greece ............................................................................................................................................ 53 Hungary........................................................................................................................................... 54 Lithuania.......................................................................................................................................... 54 Poland ............................................................................................................................................. 55 Romania .......................................................................................................................................... 56 Russia ............................................................................................................................................. 56 Serbia .............................................................................................................................................. 57 Slovakia........................................................................................................................................... 58 Turkey ............................................................................................................................................. 58 Ukraine ............................................................................................................................................ 60 North America .................................................................................................................................... 61 Canada............................................................................................................................................ 63 The US ............................................................................................................................................ 64 Latin America ..................................................................................................................................... 65 Argentina ......................................................................................................................................... 68 Brazil ............................................................................................................................................... 69 Chile ................................................................................................................................................ 70 Colombia ......................................................................................................................................... 70 Jamaica ........................................................................................................................................... 71 Mexico ............................................................................................................................................. 71 Peru................................................................................................................................................. 72 Venezuela ....................................................................................................................................... 73 Asia Pacific ........................................................................................................................................ 74 Afghanistan ..................................................................................................................................... 78 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 3
  • 4. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Australia .......................................................................................................................................... 79 Bangladesh ..................................................................................................................................... 79 China ............................................................................................................................................... 80 Hong Kong ...................................................................................................................................... 81 India ................................................................................................................................................ 82 Indonesia......................................................................................................................................... 82 Japan .............................................................................................................................................. 83 Kazakhstan ..................................................................................................................................... 84 Malaysia .......................................................................................................................................... 84 New Zealand ................................................................................................................................... 85 Pakistan .......................................................................................................................................... 85 The Philippines ................................................................................................................................ 86 Singapore ........................................................................................................................................ 87 South Korea .................................................................................................................................... 87 Taiwan............................................................................................................................................. 88 Thailand .......................................................................................................................................... 89 Vietnam ........................................................................................................................................... 90 Africa and Middle East ....................................................................................................................... 91 Algeria ............................................................................................................................................. 95 Angola ............................................................................................................................................. 96 Bahrain ............................................................................................................................................ 96 DR of Congo ................................................................................................................................... 97 Egypt ............................................................................................................................................... 97 Ghana ............................................................................................................................................. 98 Iran .................................................................................................................................................. 99 Iraq ................................................................................................................................................ 100 Israel ............................................................................................................................................. 100 Jordan ........................................................................................................................................... 101 Kenya ............................................................................................................................................ 101 Kuwait ........................................................................................................................................... 102 Lesotho ......................................................................................................................................... 102 Morocco ........................................................................................................................................ 103 Mozambique .................................................................................................................................. 103 Nigeria ........................................................................................................................................... 104 Oman ............................................................................................................................................ 105 Qatar ............................................................................................................................................. 105 Saudi Arabia.................................................................................................................................. 106 South Africa................................................................................................................................... 106 Sudan ............................................................................................................................................ 107 Syria .............................................................................................................................................. 108 Tanzania ....................................................................................................................................... 108 Tunisia........................................................................................................................................... 109 The UAE........................................................................................................................................ 109 Uganda.......................................................................................................................................... 110 Mobile Handset Market ........................................................................................................112 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 112 Major Handset Vendors ................................................................................................................... 114 Nokia ............................................................................................................................................. 115 Samsung ....................................................................................................................................... 117 LG ................................................................................................................................................. 119 Sony Ericsson ............................................................................................................................... 121 Motorola ........................................................................................................................................ 123 Apple ............................................................................................................................................. 125 RIM................................................................................................................................................ 127 Mobile Infrastructure Market ...............................................................................................130 Overview .......................................................................................................................................... 130 Future Outlook ................................................................................................................................. 130 Major Mobile Infrastructure Vendors ................................................................................................ 131 Alcatel-Lucent ............................................................................................................................... 132 Ericsson ........................................................................................................................................ 134 Nokia Siemens Networks .............................................................................................................. 137 ZTE ............................................................................................................................................... 139 Huawei Technologies .................................................................................................................... 141 Mobile Marketing Data .........................................................................................................145 4 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 5. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Penetration — Top 20 Mobile Markets ................................................................................. 145 Mobile Penetration in Youth Segment — Top 20 Mobile Markets .................................................... 146 Data ARPU — Top 20 Mobile Markets ............................................................................................ 147 Key Telecom Technologies .................................................................................................149 Technologies ................................................................................................................................... 149 2G ................................................................................................................................................. 149 2.5G/2.75G.................................................................................................................................... 149 3G ................................................................................................................................................. 151 3.5G .............................................................................................................................................. 152 4G ................................................................................................................................................. 153 Network Components and Services ................................................................................................. 154 Backhaul ....................................................................................................................................... 154 Base Transceiver Station (BTS) .................................................................................................... 154 Mobile Services Switching Center (MSC)...................................................................................... 154 Node-B .......................................................................................................................................... 154 IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) .................................................................................................... 154 Radio Access Network (RAN) ....................................................................................................... 155 Remote Access Virtual Private Network (VPN) ............................................................................. 155 Short Message Service Centre (SMSC) ........................................................................................ 155 Multimedia Message Service Centre (MMSC) .............................................................................. 155 SS7 ............................................................................................................................................... 156 Femtocell....................................................................................................................................... 156 Thin Client ..................................................................................................................................... 156 Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) ................................................................................................................ 156 National leased lines ..................................................................................................................... 157 International Private Leased Circuit (IPLC) ................................................................................... 157 Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT)........................................................................................... 157 Managed Services......................................................................................................................... 157 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) ............................................................................................... 157 PCS networks ............................................................................................................................... 157 Orthogonal variable spreading factor (OVSF) ............................................................................... 158 Mobile Services................................................................................................................................ 158 Instant Messaging ......................................................................................................................... 158 Enterprise Services ....................................................................................................................... 158 Mobile e-mail ................................................................................................................................. 159 Location Based Services ............................................................................................................... 159 Mobile Video Service Technologies .............................................................................................. 159 Mobile Gaming Services ............................................................................................................... 160 Augmented Reality (AR)................................................................................................................ 160 Cloud Computing .......................................................................................................................... 160 Appendices ...........................................................................................................................162 Glossary ........................................................................................................................................ 163 Portio Research Classifications ..................................................................................................... 175 Companies Mentioned in this Report ............................................................................................ 176 About the Authors.......................................................................................................................... 186 Also available from Portio Research Limited ................................................................................. 187 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 5
  • 6. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 List of Figures Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5: Figure 6: Figure 7: Figure 8: Figure 9: Figure 10: Figure 11: Figure 12: Figure 13: Figure 14: Figure 15: Figure 16: Figure 17: Figure 18: Figure 19: Figure 20: Figure 21: Figure 22: Figure 23: Figure 24: Figure 25: Figure 26: Figure 27: Figure 28: Figure 29: Figure 30: Figure 31: Figure 32: Figure 33: Figure 34: Figure 35: Figure 36: Figure 37: Figure 38: Figure 39: Figure 40: Figure 41: Figure 42: Figure 43: Figure 44: Figure 45: Figure 46: Figure 47: Figure 48: Figure 49: 6 Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................. 14 Mobile Service Revenues — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................... 15 Mobile Handset Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F) ..................................................... 15 Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2015F)............................................... 16 Revenues of Major Industries — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009) ........................... 17 Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries — Year-on-year Growth in Revenue (2009) ...... 17 Mobile Handset and TV Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009 & 2010F) ....................................... 18 Mobile Subscribers and Internet Users — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 & End 2010F)................... 19 Mobile Subscribers and Internet Users — The US, the UK and BRIC Nations (In Million, End 2010F) 19 Break-out of Fortune Global 500 Companies by Industry (Worldwide, End 2009) ................................ 20 Performance Comparison of Market Leaders across Various Industries (End 2009) ............................ 22 Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................. 26 Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base — Regional Contribution (2010F) ................................................. 27 Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base — Regional Contribution (2015F) ................................................. 28 Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .. 29 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................................................................................................................. 30 Technology Forecast — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................................. 31 Mobile Subscribers — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................ 32 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................................................................................................................... 34 Technology Forecast — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 36 Mobile Subscribers — Eastern Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 47 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Eastern Europe (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................................................................................................................. 49 Technology Forecast — Eastern Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ...................................... 51 Mobile Subscribers — North America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 61 Technology Forecast — North America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................ 63 Mobile Subscribers — Latin America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 65 Top 5 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Latin America (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................................................................................................................. 66 Technology Forecast — Latin America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 68 Mobile Subscribers — Asia Pacific (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F)................................................ 74 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Asia Pacific (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................................................................................................................. 76 Technology Forecast — Asia Pacific (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................. 78 Mobile Subscribers — Africa and Middle East (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................. 91 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Africa and Middle East (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................................................................................................... 93 Technology Forecast — Africa and Middle East (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................... 95 Mobile Handset Shipments Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F) ....................................................... 112 Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) ............................................................................................................................................................ 112 Market Share — Handset Vendors (Q2 2010)..................................................................................... 114 Market Share — Nokia (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ................................................................... 115 Market Share — Samsung (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ............................................................. 117 Market Share — LG (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ....................................................................... 119 Market Share — Sony Ericsson (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ..................................................... 121 Market Share — Motorola (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) .............................................................. 123 Market Share — Apple (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ................................................................... 125 Market Share — RIM (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010)...................................................................... 127 Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F)............................................. 130 Market Share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors (Q2 2010) .................................................................. 131 Revenues – Alcatel-Lucent (In USD million, Q2 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................................... 132 Revenue Break-out by Geography – Alcatel-Lucent (Q2 2010) .......................................................... 133 Revenues – Ericsson (In USD million, Q2 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................................................... 134 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 7. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 50: Figure 51: Figure 52: Figure 53: Figure 54: Figure 55: Figure 56: Figure 57: Figure 58: Figure 59: Figure 60: Figure 61: Figure 62: Figure 63: Revenue Break-out by Geography – Ericsson (Q2 2010) ................................................................... 135 Revenues – Nokia Siemens Networks (In USD million, Q2 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 137 Revenue Break-out by Geography – Nokia Siemens Networks (Q2 2010) ......................................... 138 Revenues – ZTE (In USD million, 2008 – H1 2010) ............................................................................ 139 Revenue Break-out by Geography – ZTE (H1 2010) .......................................................................... 140 Revenues – Huawei (In USD million, 2008-2009) ............................................................................... 141 Revenue Break-out by Geography – Huawei (2009) ........................................................................... 142 Technology Evolution – 2G ................................................................................................................. 149 Technology Evolution –2.5G and 2.75G.............................................................................................. 150 Technology Evolution – 3G ................................................................................................................. 151 Technology Evolution – 3.5G .............................................................................................................. 152 Technology Evolution – 4G ................................................................................................................. 153 Network Architecture — Wireless Networks ........................................................................................ 155 Femtocells: How they Operate? .......................................................................................................... 156 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 7
  • 8. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 List of Tables Table 1: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Table 6: Table 7: Table 8: Table 9: Table 10: Table 11: Table 12: Table 13: Table 14: Table 15: Table 16: Table 17: Table 18: Table 19: Table 20: Table 21: Table 22: Table 23: Table 24: Table 25: Table 26: Table 27: Table 28: Table 29: Table 30: Table 31: Table 32: Table 33: Table 34: Table 35: Table 36: Table 37: Table 38: Table 39: Table 40: Table 41: Table 42: Table 43: Table 44: Table 45: Table 46: Table 47: Table 48: Table 49: Table 50: Table 51: Table 52: Table 53: Table 54: Table 55: 8 KPIs of Market Leaders Across Various Industries (End 2008 & End 2009) ......................................... 21 KPIs of Leading MNOs in Global Fortune 500 Companies (End 2008 & End 2009) ............................. 23 Revenue Per Employee and Operating Profit Per Employee of Leading MNOs (In USD, End 2009) ... 24 Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................. 27 Top 10 Countries by Q2 2010 Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Million, Q2 2010) ................ 28 Top 10 Markets by Mobile Subscriber Base Growth (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ......................... 29 Top 10 Operators by Q2 2010 Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Million, Q1 2010 & Q2 2010) .............................................................................................................................................................. 31 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ....... 33 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Million, Q2 2010) ..................... 35 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Austria (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 36 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Austria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 36 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Belgium (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 37 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Belgium (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 37 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Denmark (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 37 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Denmark (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 38 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Finland (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 38 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Finland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 38 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — France (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 39 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — France (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 39 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Germany (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 39 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Germany (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 40 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Ireland (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 40 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Ireland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 41 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Italy (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................. 41 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Italy (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................................ 41 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The Netherlands (End 2009 – End 2015F).............................. 42 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The Netherlands (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................ 42 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Norway (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 42 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Norway (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 42 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Portugal (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................... 43 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Portugal (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)...................................... 43 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Spain (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................... 43 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Spain (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010).......................................... 43 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Sweden (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 44 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Sweden (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 44 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Switzerland (End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 45 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Switzerland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................ 45 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The UK (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 45 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The UK (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 46 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Eastern Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........ 48 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Eastern Europe (In Million, Q2 2010) ...................... 50 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Belarus (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 51 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Belarus (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 51 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Bulgaria (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 52 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Bulgaria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 52 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Croatia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 52 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Croatia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 52 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Czech Republic (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................... 53 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Czech Republic (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .......................... 53 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Greece (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 53 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Greece (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 53 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Hungary (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 54 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Hungary (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 54 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Lithuania (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 54 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Lithuania (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 55 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 9. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 56: Table 57: Table 58: Table 59: Table 60: Table 61: Table 62: Table 63: Table 64: Table 65: Table 66: Table 67: Table 68: Table 69: Table 70: Table 71: Table 72: Table 73: Table 74: Table 75: Table 76: Table 77: Table 78: Table 79: Table 80: Table 81: Table 82: Table 83: Table 84: Table 85: Table 86: Table 87: Table 88: Table 89: Table 90: Table 91: Table 92: Table 93: Table 94: Table 95: Table 96: Table 97: Table 98: Table 99: Table 100: Table 101: Table 102: Table 103: Table 104: Table 105: Table 106: Table 107: Table 108: Table 109: Table 110: Table 111: Table 112: Table 113: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Poland (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 55 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Poland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 55 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Romania (End 2009 – End 2015F).......................................... 56 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Romania (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)..................................... 56 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Russia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 56 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Russia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 57 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Serbia (End 2009 – End 2015F).............................................. 57 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Serbia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 57 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Slovakia (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 58 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Slovakia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 58 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Turkey (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 58 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Turkey (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 59 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Ukraine (End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................ 60 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Ukraine (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)....................................... 60 Countries’ Mobile Subscriber Base — North America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .................. 62 Top Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — North America (In Million, Q2 2010) ............................. 62 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Canada (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 63 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Canada (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 63 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The US (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 64 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The US (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 64 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Latin America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) ........... 66 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Latin America (In Million, Q2 2010) ......................... 67 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Argentina (End 2009 – End 2015F)......................................... 68 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Argentina (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010).................................... 68 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Brazil (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................... 69 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Brazil (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .......................................... 69 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Chile (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................ 70 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Chile (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................... 70 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Colombia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 70 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Colombia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 70 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Jamaica (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................... 71 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Jamaica (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)...................................... 71 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Mexico (End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................. 71 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Mexico (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 72 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Peru (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................ 72 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Peru (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................... 72 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Venezuela (End 2009 – End 2015F) ....................................... 73 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Venezuela (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................. 73 Major Markets’ Subscriber Base — Asia Pacific (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................... 75 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Asia Pacific (In Million, Q2 2010)............................. 77 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Afghanistan (End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 78 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Afghanistan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................ 78 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Australia (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 79 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Australia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 79 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Bangladesh (End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 79 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Bangladesh (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................ 80 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — China (End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................... 80 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — China (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ......................................... 80 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Hong Kong (End 2009 – End 2015F) ...................................... 81 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Hong Kong (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................. 81 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — India (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................ 82 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — India (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................... 82 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Indonesia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................ 82 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Indonesia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................... 83 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Japan (End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................................. 83 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Japan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ......................................... 83 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Kazakhstan (End 2009 – End 2015F) ..................................... 84 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Kazakhstan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................ 84 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 9
  • 10. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 114: Table 115: Table 116: Table 117: Table 118: Table 119: Table 120: Table 121: Table 122: Table 123: Table 124: Table 125: Table 126: Table 127: Table 128: Table 129: Table 130: Table 131: Table 132: Table 133: Table 134: Table 135: Table 136: Table 137: Table 138: Table 139: Table 140: Table 141: Table 142: Table 143: Table 144: Table 145: Table 146: Table 147: Table 148: Table 149: Table 150: Table 151: Table 152: Table 153: Table 154: Table 155: Table 156: Table 157: Table 158: Table 159: Table 160: Table 161: Table 162: Table 163: Table 164: Table 165: Table 166: Table 167: Table 168: Table 169: Table 170: 10 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Malaysia (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 84 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Malaysia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 84 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — New Zealand (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................... 85 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — New Zealand (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .............................. 85 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Pakistan (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 85 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Pakistan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 86 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The Philippines (End 2009 – End 2015F)................................ 86 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The Philippines (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .......................... 86 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Singapore (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................ 87 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Singapore (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)................................... 87 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — South Korea (End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................... 87 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — South Korea (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................... 88 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Taiwan (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 88 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Taiwan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 88 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Thailand (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 89 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Thailand (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 89 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Vietnam (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 90 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Vietnam (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 90 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Africa and Middle East (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................................................................................................................................................. 92 Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Africa and Middle East (In Million, Q2 2010) ........... 94 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Algeria (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 95 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Algeria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 95 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Angola (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 96 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Angola (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................ 96 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Bahrain (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................... 96 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Bahrain (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)....................................... 96 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — DR of Congo (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................... 97 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — DR of Congo (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .............................. 97 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Egypt (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................... 97 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Egypt (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010).......................................... 98 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Ghana (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 98 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Ghana (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 99 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Iran (End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................................. 99 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Iran (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)............................................. 99 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Iraq (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................................ 100 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Iraq (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)........................................... 100 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Israel (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 100 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Israel (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 100 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Jordan (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 101 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Jordan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 101 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Kenya (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 101 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Kenya (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)....................................... 101 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Kuwait (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................... 102 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Kuwait (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 102 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Lesotho (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 102 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Lesotho (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 102 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Morocco (End 2009 – End 2015F) ........................................ 103 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Morocco (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ................................... 103 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Mozambique (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................. 103 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Mozambique (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................ 103 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Nigeria (End 2009 – End 2015F)........................................... 104 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Nigeria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 104 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Oman (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................ 105 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Oman (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 105 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Qatar (End 2009 – End 2015F) ............................................. 105 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Qatar (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ........................................ 105 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Saudi Arabia (End 2009 – End 2015F) ................................. 106 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 11. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 171: Table 172: Table 173: Table 174: Table 175: Table 176: Table 177: Table 178: Table 179: Table 180: Table 181: Table 182: Table 183: Table 184: Table 185: Table 186: Table 187: Table 188: Table 189: Table 190: Table 191: Table 192: Table 193: Table 194: Table 195: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Saudi Arabia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................ 106 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — South Africa (End 2009 – End 2015F) .................................. 106 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — South Africa (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ............................. 107 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Sudan (End 2009 – End 2015F)............................................ 107 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Sudan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ...................................... 107 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Syria (End 2009 – End 2015F) .............................................. 108 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Syria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010)......................................... 108 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Tanzania (End 2009 – End 2015F) ....................................... 108 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Tanzania (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................. 108 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Tunisia (End 2009 – End 2015F) .......................................... 109 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Tunisia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 109 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The UAE (End 2009 – End 2015F) ....................................... 109 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The UAE (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................. 110 Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Uganda (End 2009 – End 2015F) ......................................... 110 Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Uganda (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) .................................... 110 Mobile Handset Shipments — Leading Vendors (In Million, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) .............................. 113 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Nokia (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010)................................... 115 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Samsung (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ............................. 117 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — LG (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ....................................... 119 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Sony Ericsson (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ..................... 121 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Motorola (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) .............................. 123 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Apple (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010)................................... 125 Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — RIM (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) ..................................... 127 Top 20 Markets by Mobile Subscriber Base and their Penetration — Worldwide (Q2 2010) ............. 145 Youth Mobile Penetration in the Top 20 Mobile Subscribers Markets — Worldwide (In Percent, Q2 2010) .................................................................................................................................................. 146 Table 196: Monthly Mobile Data ARPU in the Top 20 Mobile Subscribers Markets — Worldwide (In USD, Q2 2010) .................................................................................................................................................. 147 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 11
  • 12. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chapter 1 Introduction 12 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 13. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Introduction Worldwide Mobile Market Mobile communications has undoubtedly revolutionised the telecommunications industry. Year after year the mobile market has reported significant growth worldwide. The exceptional growth in Western markets is mirrored by that in the emerging markets of Asia Pacific, and it has now smoothly transitioned in the Africa and Middle East region also. Advanced networks, attractive tariff plans, affordable handsets and the availability of enhanced data services such as mobile apps, mobile payments and high-speed mobile Internet have fuelled the growth and increased demand manifold over the essential. However, intense competition, fierce price wars and commoditisation of voice in some markets have led to a decline in average revenue per user (ARPU). As a result, MNOs are focussing on offering valueadded services to increase per-user revenue. Also, they are taking initiatives to increase and maintain their subscriber base, through wider network areas and upgraded networks. The section below briefly discusses the four major aspects of the mobile industry — Subscribers, Revenues, Handsets and Infrastructure.1 Subscribers • • • • 1 The number of mobile subscribers worldwide stood at 4.7 billion at end-2009. The subscriber base is forecast to increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.9 percent between 2009 and 2015 to reach nearly 7.4 billion by end-2015. The emerging markets of Asia Pacific, and Africa and Middle East, with a CAGR of more than 10 percent over 2009–2015, are expected to drive growth of the worldwide mobile subscriber base. The advanced markets of North America and Western Europe are approaching saturation, with most of the markets having close to or more than 100 percent mobile penetration. Mobile subscribers worldwide are gradually shifting to 3G and higher networks, and users in these segments are forecast to account for over 60 percent of total subscribers by end-2015 as against 16.7 percent at end-2009. Note: All numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 13
  • 14. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 1: Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 10000 8000 6000 5,254.6 5,787.1 6,262.5 6,675.1 7,037.9 7,351.5 4,655.8 4000 2000 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Revenues • • • • 2, 3 14 In 2009, mobile services generated over USD 1 trillion in revenues worldwide, and this is now expected to reach over USD 1.7 trillion by end-2015.2 Service revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 8.7 percent between 2009 and 2015. Service revenue growth is expected to outpace mobile subscriber growth by end-2012; the launch of advanced network technologies, such as LTE and WiMAX will significantly boost the uptake of data services and, in turn, higher data revenues in developed markets. The emerging markets are also witnessing an upward trend in the adoption of data services, offering impetus to service revenues. Mobile ARPU is declining worldwide due to increased acquisition of users in the low-value and rural segments, fierce price competition and commoditisation of voice services. Note: All numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 15. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 2: Mobile Service Revenues — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Service Revenues (In USD Billion) 2000 1600 1200 1,053.0 1,174.9 1,416.2 1,292.5 1,531.4 1,737.8 1,639.2 800 400 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Handsets • • • • • Handset shipments are forecast to total 1.3 billion at end-2010, 142 million more than that in 2009. With a market share of nearly 35 percent in Q2 2010, Nokia still leads the handset vendor market; Samsung and LG jointly account for nearly one-third share of the handset vendor market. With a year-on-year decline of over 40 percent in market share from Q2 2009 to Q2 2010, Motorola and Sony Ericsson are worst hit by the economic downturn. With the launch of iPhone OS4, Apple recorded an increase in handset shipments in the first half of 2010 as compared with that in the first half of 2009, leading to an increased market share. The strongly evolving mobile enterprise segment continues to underpin the growth of BlackBerry and also other vendors focusing on the enterprise segment, such as Microsoft and HTC. Figure 3: Mobile Handset Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F) Mobile Handset Shipments (In Million) 1,800 1,600.3 1,752.4 1,687.5 1,481.7 1,307.9 1,400 1,375.4 1,165.6 1,000 600 200 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 15
  • 16. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Infrastructure • • • • Mobile infrastructure expenditure recorded a dip in 2009 since mobile operators limited their expenditure on infrastructure due to the economic downturn; equipment spend in 2008 was USD 57.6 billion, which reduced to USD 52 billion in 2009. Mobile equipment spend is expected to reach USD 54 billion at end-2010, exhibiting a growth rate of 3.8 percent year-on-year. Transition to advanced network technologies such as LTE, 4G and WiMAX as well as the expansion of network coverage areas will call for higher equipment spend over coming years. Since the deployment cycle for 2G is approaching maturity, particularly in developed markets, equipment spend on 2G and 3G networks will start declining from 2015 onwards, and it will primarily include network maintenance and upgrades. Thus, we expect a drop in equipment spend in 2015. Naturally, as-yet unknown new technological advances between now and 2015 may change this picture once that time comes. 3 Figure 4: Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2009 – 2015F) Mobile Equipment Spend (In USD Billion) 80 62.2 60 52.0 54.0 63.3 64.5 57.3 50.3 40 20 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 3 Note: Mobile equipment spend does not include services and solutions expenditure. According to Portio estimates, mobile equipment spend currently forms nearly two-thirds of the total mobile infrastructure spend. 16 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 17. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile and Other Major Industries Revenue Comparison of Mobile and Other Major Industries The mobile market, in terms of revenue generated in 2009, has outperformed the Software and • Services, Pharmaceuticals, IT Hardware and Semiconductor markets. Of these five markets, mobile services exhibited the highest growth in 2008–2009, followed by • Software and Services. The IT hardware industry was worse affected by the recession and witnessed a decline of 9.7 • percent in 2009 as compared with that in 2008. Figure 5: Revenues of Major Industries — Worldwide (In USD Billion, End 2008 & End 2009) Revenues (In USD Billion) 1200 1000 1,053.0 967.0 912.2 912.1 837.0 735.0 800 594.0 600 536.3 400 249.0 200 228.4 0 Mobile Services Software and Services Pharmaceuticals IT Hardware Semiconductor Industry 2008 2009 Source: Portio Research Ltd. Figure 6: Comparison of Mobile Services with Other Industries — Year-on-year Growth in Revenue (2009) Semiconductors -8.3% IT Hardware -9.7% Pharmaceuticals Software and Services 13.9% -5.7% Mobile Services -15% -10% -5% 23.1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 17
  • 18. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile and Other Media Mobile vs TV • • In 2010, worldwide mobile handset shipments are expected to witness an annual growth of nearly 12 percent, whereas television shipments are expected to grow by around 2 percent.4 Smartphones, along with advanced and high speed network technologies, promise to offer TV– like experience to mobile subscribers on-the-move. The adoption of smartphones is expected to drive the growth of mobile TV. 5 Figure 7: Mobile Handset and TV Shipments — Worldwide (In Million, 2009 & 2010F) 1,307.9 Mobile Handsets and TV Sets (In Million) 1400 1200 1,165.6 1000 800 600 400 200 167.3 163.5 0 2009 Mobile Handsets 2010F Year TV Sets Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Mobile vs Internet • • • • 4 5 In 2010, mobile subscribers are expected to be more than double the number of Internet users. In 2010, the mobile subscriber base is expected to witness an annual growth of nearly 13 percent, whereas the Internet user base is forecast to grow by around 8 percent Mobile Internet has changed the way people work, play and communicate - it enables users to perform tasks which could previously only be performed on desktops and laptops and it provides access to a vast pool of information on-the-go. MNOs worldwide have taken several initiatives to cater to the increasing uptake of mobile Internet services, including the deployment of advanced and high-speed mobile networks. Note: All the numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated. Note: TV sets shipments have been calculated by subtracting year-end figures of TV sets. 18 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 19. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 8: Mobile Subscribers and Internet Users — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 & End 2010F) Mobile and Internet Users (In Million) 6000 5,254.6 4,655.8 5000 4000 3000 2,260.7 2,085.7 2000 1000 0 2009 2010F Year Mobile Subscribers Internet Users Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted • • • • In 2010, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations together will have more than 550 million Internet users, nearly 25 percent of the total Internet users worldwide. The gap between mobile subscribers and Internet users is wider in emerging markets such as BRIC nations, as compared to that in advanced markets, such as the US and the UK. Low PC penetration in emerging markets has spurred the uptake of mobile for access to the Internet. Also, for many people in emerging markets, accessing the Internet on a mobile handset is a cheaper alternative than buying a PC or paying for a broadband connection. Figure 9: Mobile Subscribers and Internet Users — The US, the UK and BRIC Nations (In Million, End 2010F) 835.0 Mobile and Internet Users (In Million) 900 800 702.2 700 600 500 400 300 349.4 310.3 261.5 218.8 200 82.8 50.1 100 82.3 195.1 61.4 58.9 0 The US The UK China India Russia Brazil Country Mobile Subscribers Internet Users Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 19
  • 20. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Performance Comparison – Major Mobile Companies vs Other Big Companies The following section briefly compares the performance of mobile companies with those companies operating in other major industries. Telecommunications vs Other Industries in Fortune Global 500 • • • With 18 mobile companies listed in the ‘Fortune Global 500’, Telecommunications is among the top five industries worldwide, ranked at number five in terms of number of companies listed in the ‘Fortune Global 500’. The ‘Banks: Commercial and Savings’ industry has the highest number of companies, nearly 55, listed in the ‘Fortune Global 500’. Other major industries are Petroleum Refining, Motor Vehicles and Parts, and Food and Drug Stores. Figure 10: Break-out of Fortune Global 500 Companies by Industry (Worldwide, End 2009) 67.8% 3.6% 4.4% 5.6% 7.6% 11.0% Banks: Commercial and Savings Petroleum Refining Motor Vehicles and Parts Food and Drug Stores Telecommunications Others Source: Fortune Magazine, Portio Research Ltd. 20 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 21. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Leading Mobile Operators vs Other Big Companies in Fortune Global 500 • AT&T, in terms of revenues generated in 2009, has outperformed other big companies such as Hewlett Packard (HP), IBM, Microsoft, Nokia and Intel. • In 2009, Royal Dutch Shell and Toyota Motors generated more revenues than AT&T; however, AT&T surpassed both those companies in terms of operating profit. • Among the companies mentioned, AT&T generated the third highest operating profit in 2009, approximately USD 21.5 billion. Table 1: KPIs of Market Leaders Across Various Industries (End 2008 & End 2009) 8 2008 6 Company 7 Industry 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 Market Cap (In USD 9 Billion) Revenue (In USD Million) Operating Profit (In USD Million) Employees (FY: Feb to Jan) General Merchandiser 404,374.0 408,214.0 22,798.0 23,950.0 1,600,000 2,100,000 194.4 Royal Dutch Shell Petroleum Refining 470,940.0 285,129.0 44,530.0 17,960.0 102,000 101,000 82.3 Motor Vehicles and Parts 205,295.7 204,291.5 -4,610.1 1,590.2 300,000 320,590 123.2 Telecommunications 124,028.0 123,018.0 23,063.0 21,492.0 302,660 282,720 169.1 Food and Drug Stores 129,829.6 121,861.4 4,103.6 2,377.8 495,287 475,976 38.0 Computers, Office Equipment 118,364.0 114,552.0 10,473.0 10,136.0 321,000 304,000 97.1 IT services 103,630.0 95,758.0 15,938.0 17,013.0 398,455 399,409 175.4 Computer software 58,437.0 62,484.0 20,363.0 24,098.0 93,000 89,000 217.7 Pharmaceuticals 63,747.0 61,897.0 16,929.0 15,755.0 118,700 115,500 175.2 Network and Other Communications Equipment 74,611.7 57,157.5 7,306.7 1,669.4 121,723 123,171 43.0 Semiconductors and other Electronic Components 37,586.0 35,127.0 8,499.0 5,711.0 83,900 79,800 109.4 Walmart (FY: Jan to Dec) Toyota Motor (FY: Apr to Mar) AT&T (FY: Jan to Dec) Carrefour (FY: Jan to Dec) HP (FY: Nov to Oct) IBM (FY: Jan to Dec) 10 Microsoft (FY: Jul to Jun) Johnson & Johnson (FY: Jan to Dec) Nokia (FY: Jan to Dec) Intel (FY: Jan to Dec) 6 Note: FY represents the financial year of the company Note: Industry Classification is as defined by Fortune magazine for Fortune Global 500 8 Note: Revenues listed here are for the financial year (mentioned in the first column) of the company 9 Note: Market Capitalisation is as of 20 October 2010 10 Note: With reference to our previous report ‘Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014’, Microsoft’s operating profit for 2008 has been revised because our source has updated the operating profit data for 2008 7 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 21
  • 22. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 11: Performance Comparison of Market Leaders across Various Industries (End 2009) Bubble Size correlates to company's market cap 35 Operating Profit (In Milion) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 0 100 200 300 400 500 Revenue (In Million) AT&T Carrefour Hewlett-Packard (HP) IBM Intel Johnson & Johnson Microsoft Nokia Royal Dutch Shell Toyota Motor Walmart Source: Portio Research Ltd. KPIs of Leading MNOs in Fortune Global 500 • • • 22 In 2009, AT&T Group, NTT Group, Verizon Communications, Deutsche Telekom and Telefonica Group were the top five telecom performers in terms of revenue generation. Telefonica Group generated the highest operating profit among all the leading companies mentioned in the following table. Among the companies mentioned, China Telecom registered the highest growth in terms of revenues and operating profit from 2008 to 2009. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 23. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 2: KPIs of Leading MNOs in Global Fortune 500 Companies (End 2008 & End 2009) 12 11 Company AT&T Group (FY: Jan to Dec) NTT Group (FY: Apr to Mar) Verizon Communications 13 Rank in Fortune Global 500 Companies 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 21 124,028.0 123,018.0 23,063.0 21,492.0 302,660 282,720 31 104,163.0 109,755.5 11,098.0 12,048.8 196,296 194,982 35 97,354.0 107,808.0 16,884.0 14,027.0 223,900 222,900 59 90,731.7 90,095.9 10,358.2 8,384.5 235,000 258,000 68 84,303.6 79,118.8 29,216.1 31,522.8 257,035 257,000 77 60,160.8 66,282.8 22,073.6 22,553.9 138,368 145,954 80 70,617.3 70,992.4 10,083.8 15,133.3 79,097 85,000 105 78,699.0 64,074.9 15,113.6 10,960.4 30,000 181,000 181 42,668.9 37,882.3 7,999.7 7,660.7 75,320 71,384 189 37,360.3 37,839.1 6,267.9 5,349.8 44,243 48,284 193 35,605.0 36,996.0 4,512.0 4,771.0 16,967 18,301 204 26,888.2 30,695.7 741.7 3,321.9 314,541 312,520 230 35,635.0 32,260.0 -2,642.0 -1,398.0 56,000 40,000 263 26,730.4 29,789.5 3,591.2 5,022.1 21,048 21,885 269 31,347.5 29,327.0 8,665.1 7,742.7 52,879 53,661 368 21,464.8 22,569.9 1,173.5 1,799.9 205,200 216,830 458 25,507.0 24,917.0 6,558.0 6,501.0 43,181 45,220 459 21,484.5 18,840.1 3,821.1 3,974.7 34,925 40,116 Revenue (In USD Million) Operating Profit (In USD Million) Employees (FY: Jan to Dec) Deutsche Telekom (FY: Jan to Dec) Telefonica Group (FY: Jan to Dec) China Mobile (FY: Jan to Dec) Vodafone Group (FY: Apr to Mar) France Telecom Group (FY: Jan to Dec) Telecom Italia (FY: Jan to Dec) Vivendi (FY: Jan to Dec) KDDI (FY: Apr to Mar) China Telecom (FY: Jan to Dec) Sprint Nextel (FY: Jan to Dec) Softbank Group (FY: Apr to Mar) America Movil (FY: Jan to Dec) China Unicom (FY: Jan to Dec) Telstra (FY: Jul to Jun) KPN (FY: Jan to Dec) 11 Note: FY represents the financial year of the company Note: Company ranks have been sourced from the Global Fortune 500 list. 13 Note: Revenues listed here are for the financial year (mentioned in the first column) of the company. Revenues have been sourced from respective companies’ annual reports and may not match with the Fortune 500 ranking source. 12 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 23
  • 24. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 • • • KDDI generated both the highest revenue per employee and highest operating profit per employee (among the companies mentioned in the following table) in 2009. Sprint Nextel registered the highest growth in revenue per employee from 2008 to 2009 of nearly 27 percent, followed by China Telecom with 15 percent.14 China Telecom witnessed the highest growth, approximately 350 percent, in operating profit per employee from 2008 to 2009, followed by China Unicom with over 45 percent. Table 3: Revenue Per Employee and Operating Profit Per Employee of Leading MNOs (In USD, End 2009) Company Company Operating Profit Per Employee (In USD) KDDI 2,021,528.9 KDDI 260,696.1 Softbank Group 1,361,184.2 Softbank Group 229,476.3 Vodafone Group 835,205.1 Vodafone Group 178,038.9 Sprint Nextel 806,500.0 China Mobile 154,527.4 Vivendi 783,677.8 America Movil 144,289.7 NTT Group 562,900.6 Telstra 143,763.8 Telstra 551,017.2 Telefonica Group 122,656.9 America Movil 546,524.1 Vivendi 110,798.6 Telecom Italia 530,683.8 Telecom Italia 107,316.8 Verizon Communications 483,660.8 KPN 99,080.1 KPN 469,639.5 AT&T Group 76,018.7 China Mobile 454,135.0 Verizon Communications 62,929.6 AT&T Group 435,123.1 NTT Group 61,794.5 France Telecom Group 354,004.9 France Telecom Group 60,554.7 Deutsche Telekom 349,208.9 Deutsche Telekom 32,498.1 Telefonica Group 307,855.1 China Telecom 10,629.4 China Unicom 104,090.2 China Unicom 8,301.1 China Telecom 14 Revenue Per Employee (In USD) 98,220.1 Sprint Nextel -34,950.0 Note: All numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated 24 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 25. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chapter 2 Mobile Subscriber Base © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 25
  • 26. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Subscriber Base Worldwide  The worldwide mobile subscriber base was 4.7 billion at end-2009, and is projected to reach 5.3 billion by end-2010 and 7.4 billion by end-2015.  Worldwide mobile subscriptions are anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 7.9 percent over 2009-2015.  The emerging markets of Asia Pacific and the Africa and Middle East region will lead the mobile subscriber base growth, while the advanced markets of North America and Western Europe will witness moderate growth. Figure 12: Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 10000 CAGR = 7.9% 8000 6000 5,254.6 5,787.1 6,262.5 6,675.1 7,037.9 7,351.5 4,655.8 4000 2000 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 26 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 27. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 4: 15 Mobile Subscribers — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F CAGR (In Percent, 2009– 2015) Western Europe 499.9 518.3 530.5 540.7 549.3 556.6 562.8 2.0 Eastern Europe 538.4 560.3 584.6 600.5 613.0 622.8 630.3 2.7 Asia Pacific 2,132.1 2,521.2 2,856.5 3,156.4 3,416.5 3,643.9 3,838.1 10.3 North America 313.5 334.6 352.1 368.0 382.2 395.0 406.3 4.4 Latin America 494.0 534.8 574.4 608.1 637.9 663.9 686.5 5.6 Africa and Middle East 677.9 785.4 889.0 988.8 1,076.1 1,155.7 1,227.5 10.4 Total 4,655.8 5,254.6 5,787.1 6,262.5 6,675.1 7,037.9 7,351.5 7.9 Region 16 Figure 13: Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base — Regional Contribution (2010F) 48.0% 6.4% 10.2% 14.9% 10.7% 9.9% Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 15 16 Note: The total number may not add up to the sum of regional numbers because of rounding-off errors. Note: The total is more than 100 percent due to rounding-off errors. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 27
  • 28. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 14: Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base — Regional Contribution (2015F) 52.2% 5.5% 9.3% 16.7% 8.6% 7.7% Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Africa and Middle East Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted  Africa and Middle East will witness the largest subscriber growth with a CAGR of 10.4 percent between 2009 and 2015, followed by Asia Pacific with a CAGR of 10.3 percent during the same period.  The percentage contribution of the Asia Pacific region to the worldwide mobile subscriber base will increase significantly from 48.0 percent at end-2010 to 52.2 percent at end-2015; similarly, the percentage contribution of the Africa and Middle East region will also increase from 14.9 percent at end-2010 to 16.7 percent at end-2015. The percentage contribution of other regions is expected to decrease continuously over the same period. Table 5: Top 10 Countries by Q2 2010 Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Million, Q2 2010) Country CAGR (In Percent, 2009 – 2015) China 785.5 7.6 India 635.5 17.2 The US 298.9 4.5 Russia 215.1 3.3 Brazil 188.1 6.8 Indonesia 177.5 10.2 Vietnam 116.8 6.6 Japan 113.7 4.0 Germany 107.7 0.5 Pakistan 28 Mobile Subscribers (In Million, Q2 2010) 99.5 5.5 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 29. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 6: Top 10 Markets by Mobile Subscriber Base Growth (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) Country Subscriber Growth (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) Subscriber Growth (In Percent, End 2009 – Q2 2010) India 110.4 21.0 China 59.6 8.2 Indonesia 17.5 10.9 Brazil 11.5 6.5 The Philippines 9.8 13.0 Vietnam 9.0 8.3 Nigeria 8.6 12.0 The US 8.5 2.9 Bangladesh 7.6 14.4 Russia 7.1 3.4 1000 833.3 800 600 402.4 71.6 63.3 54.0 49.9 Vietnam 85.4 The Philippines 87.3 Egypt 104.0 Bangladesh 126.4 200 Brazil 400 The US Mobile Subscriber Additions (In Million) Figure 15: Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Nigeria Indonesia China India 0 Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 29
  • 30. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 16: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Percent, End 2009 – End 17 2015F) 21.3% 16.1% 15.4% 15.4% 13.1% 13.1% 12.9% 12% 11.5% 11.0% DR of Congo 17.2% 18% Qatar CAGR (In Percent) 24% 6% Mozambique Country Egypt Lesotho Bangladesh Uganda Nigeria India Sudan 0% Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted  China is still the largest mobile market worldwide in terms of mobile subscriber base; however, India, growing at more than double the CAGR of China, is expected to surpass China by end-2012.  With net addition of 110.4 million mobile subscribers from end-2009 to Q2 2010, India has witnessed the largest growth in terms of subscriber additions, followed by China and Indonesia.  Vietnam, though featuring at number six in terms of net mobile subscriber additions from end-2009 to end-June 2010, will witness a significant increase in mobile penetration from 120.9 at end-2009 to 133.8 percent by Q2 2010.  The top 10 countries worldwide, by mobile subscriber additions over 2009-2015, will be adding 1,878 million mobile subscribers over the next five years.  Countries from Asia Pacific and the Africa and Middle East regions are among the top 10 emerging markets with high CAGR, with Sudan, India and Nigeria as the fastest growing mobile markets worldwide over 2009-2015. 17 Note: CAGRs were calculated to four decimal places, with each country securing a distinct CAGR value. Due to rounding off to one decimal place, a few countries appear to have the same CAGR. 30 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 31. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 7: 2010) Top 10 Operators by Q2 2010 Mobile Subscriber Base — Worldwide (In Million, Q1 2010 & Q2 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Operator Q1 2010 Q2 2010 China Mobile 538.9 554.0 China Unicom 152.1 157.0 Bharti Airtel India 127.6 136.6 Reliance Communication India 102.4 110.8 Vodafone India 100.9 109.1 Verizon US 92.8 92.1 AT&T US 87.0 90.1 Telkomsel Indonesia 82.0 88.3 China Telecom 65.5 74.5 BSNL India 69.5 72.7  While the developed mobile markets of North America and Western Europe as well as a few countries in the Asia Pacific region, such as Japan, South Korea and Australia, have already witnessed nationwide deployment of 3G and 3.5G, the developing markets have also gained momentum for network upgrades to 3G and above technologies.  By end-2010, subscribers using 3G and above networks comprised nearly 22.5 percent of the total worldwide subscriber base; this is estimated to reach 64 percent by end-2015. Figure 17: Technology Forecast — Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 8000 2,592.6 3,386.8 4,189.6 4,697.4 1,843.5 6000 1,181.9 779.5 4000 2000 3,876.3 4,072.7 3,943.6 3,669.9 3,288.3 2,848.3 2,654.1 2013F 2014F 2015F 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F Year 3G and above 2G and others Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 31
  • 32. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Western Europe  Western Europe’s mobile subscriber base is forecast to grow from 518.3 million in 2010 to 562.8 million by end-2015.  The subscriber base will grow at a CAGR of 2 percent between 2009 and 2015.  Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom are the leading countries in the region in terms of subscriber base, with combined subscriber share estimated to reach 54.7 percent by end-2010.  Finland, Austria and Denmark are expected to be high-growth markets in the region. Figure 18: Mobile Subscribers — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 750 CAGR = 2.0% 518.3 530.5 540.7 549.3 556.6 562.8 499.9 2009 600 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 450 300 150 0 Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 32 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 33. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 8: 18 Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F CAGR (In Percent, 2009– 2015) Austria 11.3 12.4 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 6.1 Belgium 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 1.0 Denmark 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0 5.2 Finland 7.8 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.8 7.2 France 59.6 62.4 64.1 65.5 66.6 67.5 68.1 2.3 Germany 108.2 108.8 109.9 110.6 111.1 111.4 111.7 0.5 Ireland 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 1.6 Italy 87.9 92.1 92.9 93.5 93.9 94.2 94.5 1.2 The Netherlands 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 0.5 Norway 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 3.2 Portugal 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 2.6 Spain 53.8 57.8 60.2 62.3 64.2 65.9 67.4 3.8 Sweden 12.0 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.2 4.1 Switzerland 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 2.2 The UK 80.3 82.8 84.7 86.2 87.3 88.2 88.9 1.7 Country  The Finnish market is expected to have a mobile subscriber base of 11.8 million by end-2015, indicating a CAGR of 7.2 percent between 2009 and 2015.  Germany and the Netherlands are expected to witness negligible growth in mobile subscriber base between 2009 and 2015.  The leading operators by mobile subscriber base in Q2 2010 include: o T-Mobile Germany (37.0 million) o Vodafone Germany (34.9 million) o Telecom Italia Italy (30.5 million) o Vodafone Italy (30.4 million) 18 Note: The table covers selected major markets of the region, hence the sum of countries’ subscribers will not add up to the total regional subscriber base. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 33
  • 34. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 19: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) 8% 7.2% 6.1% 4.1% 4% 3.8% 3.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% Switzerland 5.2% 6% France CAGR (In Percent) 10% 2% 1.7% The UK Portugal Norway Spain Sweden Denmark Austria Finland 0% Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 34 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 35. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 9: Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Western Europe (In Million, Q2 2010) 19 Operator Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Monthly ARPU (In USD) Churn (In Percent) T-Mobile Germany 37.0 20.5 2.8 Vodafone Germany 34.9 20.2 2.1 Telecom Italia 30.5 25.7 1.8 Vodafone Italy 30.4 26.5 2.1 Orange France 26.2 41.7 2.0 Movistar Spain 23.9 32.8 2.3 O2 UK 21.6 32.4 1.1 SFR France 20.6 44.3 NA E-Plus Germany 19.6 16.6 2.2 Wind Italy 19.3 16.0 2.1 Vodafone UK 18.9 30.7 3.4 T-Mobile UK 17.2 NA NA Vodafone Spain 16.8 33.9 2.3 Orange UK 16.4 NA NA O2 Germany 16.3 18.9 2.0 Orange Spain 11.3 28.3 2.3 Bouygues France 10.5 51.3 NA KPN Netherlands 10.0 32.0 NA 3 Italia 9.0 29.7 2.3 TMN Portugal 7.3 18.7 NA  The total number of 3G and above subscribers is expected to reach 550.7 million by end-2015, indicating a CAGR of 13.3 percent between 2009 and 2015.  By end-2010, subscribers using 3G and above networks comprised nearly 62.0 percent of the total subscriber base in the region; this is estimated to reach 98 percent by end-2015.  Advanced markets including Germany, Italy, the UK, France and Spain are expected to drive 3G growth in coming years 19 Note: On 1 July 2010, T-mobile UK and Orange UK merged to form a new operator ‘Everything Everywhere’. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 35
  • 36. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 20 Figure 20: Technology Forecast — Western Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 600 500 259.9 442.7 383.3 321.6 490.7 533.8 550.7 58.7 22.8 12.0 2013F 2014F 2015F 400 300 200 100 240.0 196.7 147.1 98.0 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F Year 3G and above 2G and others Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Austria Table 10: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Austria (End 2009 – End 2015F) Austria Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 11.3 12.4 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 Penetration (In Percent) 137.9 151.4 161.8 171.6 180.6 188.9 196.5 Table 11: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Austria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Mobilkom Austria 4.8 4.9 5.0 42.1 www.mobilkom.at T-Mobile 3.4 3.6 3.7 31.4 www.t-mobile.at Orange 2.2 2.2 2.1 18.2 www.orange.at 3 0.9 0.9 1.0 8.3 www.drei.at Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website 20 Note: The sum of 2G and others, and 3G and above subscribers may not add up to the region’s subscriber base due to rounding-off errors. 36 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 37. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Belgium Table 12: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Belgium (End 2009 – End 2015F) Belgium Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 Penetration (In Percent) 118.9 120.6 122.5 123.9 124.8 125.5 125.9 Table 13: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Belgium (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Proximus (Belgacom) 5.1 5.0 5.0 40.2 www.proximus.be Mobistar 3.7 3.8 3.8 30.7 www.mobistar.be BASE (KPN) 3.6 3.6 3.6 29.1 www.base.be Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Denmark Table 14: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Denmark (End 2009 – End 2015F) Denmark Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.0 Penetration (In Percent) 134.1 142.5 151.0 159.0 166.3 173.0 179.1 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 37
  • 38. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 15: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Denmark (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) TDC 3.4 3.4 3.3 44.0 www.tdc.dk Sonofon 2.0 2.1 2.1 28.5 www.sonofon.dk Telia Denmark 1.5 1.5 1.5 20.0 www.telia.dk 3 0.5 0.5 0.6 7.5 www.3.dk Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Finland Table 16: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Finland (End 2009 – End 2015F) Finland Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 7.8 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.6 11.2 11.8 Penetration (In Percent) 148.6 161.1 175.4 188.9 201.6 213.5 224.4 Table 17: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Finland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Elisa 3.0 3.1 3.2 38.0 www.elisa.fi TeliaSonera 2.9 3.0 3.1 37.1 www.sonera.fi DNA 1.9 2.0 2.1 24.7 www.dna.fi Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 38 Website © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 39. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Elisa Oyj Headquarters: Helsinki, Finland Launch of 3G services: November 2004 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 3.2 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): 3.4 Monthly ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 28.7 Recent Developments: In May 2010, Finnish Communications and Regulatory Authority (FICORA) asked Elisa to reduce its monthly charges for leasing out local loop connection to other telecom operators by more than 20 percent. France 21 Table 18: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — France (End 2009 – End 2015F) France Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 59.6 62.4 64.1 65.5 66.6 67.5 68.1 Penetration (In Percent) 92.2 96.1 98.2 99.9 101.1 102.0 102.7 Table 19: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — France (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Orange 26.3 26.2 26.2 43.4 www.orange.com SFR 20.4 20.4 20.6 34.1 www.sfr.fr Bouygues 10.4 10.4 10.5 17.4 www.bouyguestelecom.fr MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Germany Table 20: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Germany (End 2009 – End 2015F) Germany Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 108.2 108.8 109.9 110.6 111.1 111.4 111.7 Penetration (In Percent) 21 2009 131.5 132.3 133.7 134.6 135.4 135.9 136.4 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 39
  • 40. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 21: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Germany (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) T-Mobile 39.1 38.5 37.0 34.3 www.t-mobile.de Vodafone 34.6 34.5 34.9 32.4 www.vodafone.de E-Plus 19.0 19.3 19.6 18.2 www.eplus.de O2 15.5 15.9 16.3 15.1 www.telefonica.de Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website T-Mobile Germany Headquarters: Bonn, Germany Launch of 3G services: May 2004 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 37.0 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): -3.9 Monthly ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 20.5 Recent Developments: With an objective to offer more speed and new products to users in Germany, T-Mobile will be investing USD 13.8 million between 2010 and 2012 in fibre-optics, mobile communication technologies and IT processes. Ireland Table 22: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Ireland (End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Ireland 2009 Subscribers (In Million) 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.9 116.8 118.7 119.7 120.3 120.5 120.3 119.9 22 Penetration (In Percent) 22 Note: With reference to our previous report ‘Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014’, penetration rates have been revised because our source for the country-level population has updated the population data for several countries. Thus, there are a few countries across the report for which the penetration has been revised. 40 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 41. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 23: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Ireland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Vodafone 2.1 2.1 2.2 39.4 www.vodafone.ie O2 1.7 1.7 1.7 31.3 www.o2online.ie Meteor 1.1 1.1 1.0 19.1 www.meteor.ie 3 0.4 0.4 0.6 10.1 www.3ireland.ie MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Italy 23 Table 24: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Italy (End 2009 – End 2015F) Italy Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 24 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 87.9 92.1 92.9 93.5 93.9 94.2 94.5 Penetration (In Percent) 151.3 158.5 160.1 161.4 162.4 163.2 163.9 Table 25: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Italy (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Telecom Italia 30.9 30.4 30.5 34.2 www.tim.it Vodafone 29.9 30.2 30.4 34.0 www.vodafone.it Wind 18.4 18.8 19.3 21.6 www.wind.it 3 Italia 8.8 9.0 9.0 10.1 www.tre.it MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website 23 Note: The sum of subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ for 2009 may be more than the subscribers in the market due to rounding-off errors. 24 Note: The market witnessed a decline in subscriber base from 90.2 million at end-2008 to 87.9 at end-2009. The decline was observed for both Telecom Italia and Vodafone which together accounted for more than 65 percent market share. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 41
  • 42. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 The Netherlands Table 26: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The Netherlands (End 2009 – End 2015F) The Netherlands Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 Penetration (In Percent) 117.6 117.6 118.0 118.3 118.5 118.5 118.5 Table 27: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The Netherlands (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) KPN 10.3 10.0 10.0 52.2 www.kpn.com Vodafone 4.8 4.7 4.8 24.8 www.vodafone.nl T-Mobile 4.6 4.4 4.4 22.9 www.t-mobile.nl Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Norway 25 Table 28: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Norway (End 2009 – End 2015F) Norway Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.2 Penetration (In Percent) 109.6 111.4 116.0 120.2 123.9 127.1 130.0 Table 29: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Norway (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Telenor 3.0 3.0 3.0 58.6 www.telenor.com NetCom 1.7 1.7 1.7 32.2 www.netcom.no Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 25 Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 42 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 43. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Portugal Table 30: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Portugal (End 2009 – End 2015F) Portugal Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.3 Penetration (In Percent) 154.8 157.1 162.5 167.3 171.5 175.1 178.3 Table 31: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Portugal (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) TMN 7.3 7.3 7.3 43.5 www.tmn.pt Vodafone 5.9 6.0 6.0 35.8 www.vodafone.pt Optimus 3.4 3.4 3.5 20.7 www.optimus.pt Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Spain 26 Table 32: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Spain (End 2009 – End 2015F) Spain Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 53.8 57.8 60.2 62.3 64.2 65.9 67.4 Penetration (In Percent) 116.0 123.9 128.3 132.0 135.1 137.5 139.5 Table 33: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Spain (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Movistar 23.5 23.7 23.9 44.4 www.movistar.es Vodafone 16.9 16.7 16.8 31.3 www.vodafone.es Orange 11.9 11.6 11.3 21.0 www.orange.es Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 26 Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 43
  • 44. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Movistar Spain Headquarters: Madrid, Spain Launch of 3G services: February 2004 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 23.9 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): 0.6 Monthly ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 32.8 Recent Developments: Movistar Spain plans to launch a Dual Cell HSPA modem with a download speed of up to 42 Mbps. The technology will be made available for corporate and business users by October 2010 and for residential users by end of the year. Sweden 27 Table 34: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Sweden (End 2009 – End 2015F) Sweden Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 12.0 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.8 15.2 Penetration (In Percent) 132.0 139.3 145.9 151.9 157.3 162.2 166.4 Table 35: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Sweden (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) TeliaSonera 5.7 5.7 5.7 46.4 www.telia.se Tele2 3.4 3.4 3.5 27.9 www.tele2.se Telenor 2.0 2.0 2.0 16.2 www.telenor.se 3 1.0 1.1 1.2 9.5 www.tre.se MNO 27 44 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: The sum of subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ for 2009 may be more than the subscribers in the market due to rounding-off errors. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 45. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Switzerland 28 Table 36: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Switzerland (End 2009 – End 2015F) Switzerland Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 Penetration (In Percent) 118.6 121.8 125.1 127.8 130.0 131.7 133.2 29 Table 37: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Switzerland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Swisscom 5.6 5.7 5.7 62.1 www.swisscom.com Sunrise 1.9 1.9 1.9 20.8 www.sunrise.net Orange 1.6 1.6 1.6 17.0 www.orange.ch Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website The UK Table 38: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The UK (End 2009 – End 2015F) The UK Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 80.3 82.8 84.7 86.2 87.3 88.2 88.9 Penetration (In Percent) 129.1 132.5 134.8 136.4 137.4 138.0 138.3 28 Note: The sum of subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ for 2009 may be more than the subscribers in the market due to rounding-off errors. 29 Note: The market share may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding-off errors. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 45
  • 46. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 30 Table 39: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The UK (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) O2 21.3 21.4 21.6 26.9 www.o2.co.uk Vodafone 19.1 19.0 18.9 23.5 www.vodafone.co.uk T-Mobile 17.2 17.2 17.2 21.4 www.t-mobile.co.uk Orange 16.9 16.7 16.4 20.4 www.orange.co.uk 3 5.8 6.0 6.3 7.8 www.three.co.uk Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 30 Website Note: On 1 July 2010, T-mobile UK and Orange UK merged together to form a new telecom operator ‘Everything Everywhere’. 46 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 47. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Eastern Europe  The mobile subscriber base in Eastern Europe was 538.4 million in 2009; this is expected to grow to 560.3 million by end-2010 and to 630.3 million by end-2015, indicating a CAGR of 2.7 percent during the period.  Russia has been the largest contributor to the subscriber base in the region, and is expected to command a subscriber share of 39 percent by end-2010.  Apart from Russia, other leading markets in the region include Turkey, Ukraine and Poland. Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Figure 21: Mobile Subscribers — Eastern Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) 800 CAGR = 2.7% 584.6 613.0 622.8 630.3 560.3 600.5 538.4 2009 600 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 400 200 0 Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 47
  • 48. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 31 Table 40: Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Eastern Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F CAGR (In Percent, 2009– 2015) Belarus 9.9 10.8 11.7 12.6 13.3 13.9 14.4 6.5 Bulgaria 10.6 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 0.7 Croatia 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 2.3 Czech Republic 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 0.4 Greece 20.8 21.9 23.2 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.7 4.3 Hungary 11.2 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 2.4 Lithuania 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 1.1 Poland 44.7 45.4 45.9 46.3 46.6 46.8 47.0 0.8 Romania 29.4 30.1 31.1 31.9 32.5 33.0 33.4 2.1 Russia 208.0 218.8 229.6 238.0 244.5 249.5 253.3 3.3 Serbia 10.0 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.8 2.8 Slovakia 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 1.5 Turkey 62.9 66.9 68.1 69.0 69.7 70.3 70.7 2.0 Ukraine 54.8 55.7 56.2 56.5 56.8 56.9 57.0 0.7 Country  Belarus is expected to lead the region in terms of subscriber growth, with a CAGR of 6.5 percent between 2009 and 2015, followed by Greece (4.3 percent) and Russia (3.3 percent), during the same period.  Markets such as the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ukraine and Poland are witnessing negligible growth, with a CAGR of less than 1 percent growth during 2009-2015.  The top three operators by subscriber base in Q2 2010 were from Russia — Mobile TeleSystems (69.4 million), MegaFon (55.0 million) and VimpelCom (50.9 million). 31 Note: The table covers major markets of the region, hence the sum of countries’ subscribers will not add up to the total regional subscriber base. 48 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 49. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 22: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Eastern Europe (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) 8% CAGR (In Percent) 6.5% 6% 4.3% 4% 3.3% 2.8% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 2% 1.5% 1.1% 0% Belarus Greece Russia Serbia Hungary Croatia Romania Turkey Slovakia Lithuania Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 49
  • 50. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 32 Table 41: Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Eastern Europe (In Million, Q2 2010) Operator Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Monthly ARPU (In USD) Churn (In Percent) MTS Russia 69.4 8.4 3.3 Megafon Russia 55.0 NA NA VimpelCom Russia 50.9 10.9 4.3 Turkcell Turkey 33.9 12.6 3.3 Kyivstar Ukraine 21.9 5.0 2.1 MTS Ukraine 17.5 5.0 2.4 Tele2 Russia 16.5 7.1 NA Vodafone Turkey 16.1 10.5 NA Orange Poland 14.2 13.8 NA Polkomtel Poland 13.7 NA NA PTC Poland 13.3 14.1 2.9 life:) Ukraine 11.7 3.7 NA Avea Turkey 11.5 11.6 NA Orange Romania 10.5 9.1 NA Vodafone Romania 9.8 8.8 NA Cosmote Greece 8.5 20.6 3.5 Cosmote Romania 7.1 6.4 3.5 mt:s Serbia 6.2 NA NA Uralsvyazinform Russia 5.5 6.7 NA T-Mobile Czech Republic 5.5 21.8 1.3  The subscribers using 3G and above networks comprised 26.2 percent of the region’s total subscriber base at end-2010; this is forecast to reach 85 percent by end-2015.  The 3G and above subscriber base in the region is forecast to grow at a CAGR of over 39 percent during 2009-2015. 32 Note: Due to rounding off to one decimal place, two operators appear to have the same number of mobile subscribers. 50 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 51. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 33 Figure 23: Technology Forecast — Eastern Europe (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 800 600 73.8 464.6 353.4 257.4 147.0 413.4 502.3 534.9 120.5 95.5 2014F 430.0 2015F 400 200 327.2 247.1 183.0 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F Year 3G and above 2G and others Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Belarus 34 Table 42: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Belarus (End 2009 – End 2015F) Belarus Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 9.9 10.8 11.7 12.6 13.3 13.9 14.4 Penetration (In Percent) 102.6 112.4 122.9 132.1 140.1 147.1 153.1 Table 43: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Belarus (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) MTS Belarus 4.6 4.6 4.6 44.4 www.mts.by Velcom 4.1 4.1 4.1 40.0 www.velcom.by MNO 33 34 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: The sum of 2G and others, and 3G and above subscribers may not add up to the region’s subscriber base due to rounding-off errors. Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 51
  • 52. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Bulgaria 35 Table 44: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Bulgaria (End 2009 – End 2015F) Bulgaria Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 36 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 10.6 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 Penetration (In Percent) 148.2 152.6 154.9 156.9 158.7 160.4 162.0 Table 45: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Bulgaria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) M-Tel 5.4 5.3 5.2 48.8 www.mtel.bg Globul 3.9 3.8 4.0 36.8 www.globul.bg Vivacom 1.4 1.5 1.6 14.4 www.vivacom.bg MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Croatia Table 46: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Croatia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Croatia Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 Penetration (In Percent) 135.9 139.7 144.4 148.4 151.6 154.3 156.5 Table 47: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Croatia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) T-Mobile 2.9 2.8 2.8 45.9 www.t-mobile.hr VIPnet 2.6 2.6 2.6 43.3 www.vipnet.hr Tele2 0.6 0.6 0.7 10.8 www.tele2.hr Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website 35 Note: The sum of subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ for 2009 may be more than the subscribers in the market due to rounding-off errors. 36 Note: The market witnessed a decline in subscriber base from 10.7 million at end-2008 to 10.6 at end-2009 because of stringent government regulation that required the disconnection of unregistered pre-paid SIMs. 52 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 53. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Czech Republic 37 Table 48: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Czech Republic (End 2009 – End 2015F) Czech Republic Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.9 13.9 Penetration (In Percent) 133.0 134.4 135.1 135.7 136.2 136.6 137.0 Table 49: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Czech Republic (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) T-Mobile 5.5 5.4 5.5 40.7 www.t-mobile.cz O2 4.9 5.0 4.8 35.9 www.cz.o2.com Vodafone 3.0 3.0 3.0 22.5 www.oskarmobil.cz Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Greece Table 50: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Greece (End 2009 – End 2015F) Greece Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 20.8 21.9 23.2 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.7 Penetration (In Percent) 193.2 203.9 215.7 225.7 234.3 241.4 247.4 Table 51: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Greece (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Cosmote 9.2 8.4 8.5 46.7 www.cosmote.gr Vodafone 6.6 6.0 5.5 30.2 www.vodafone.gr Wind Hellas 5.0 4.6 4.2 23.1 www.wind.com.gr Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 37 Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 53
  • 54. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Hungary Table 52: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Hungary (End 2009 – End 2015F) Hungary Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 38 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 11.2 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 Penetration (In Percent) 112.0 119.4 122.6 125.3 127.5 129.3 130.8 Table 53: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Hungary (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) T-Mobile 5.1 5.1 5.1 45.8 www.t-mobile.hu Pannon 3.5 3.5 3.4 30.8 www.pannon.hu Vodafone 2.6 2.6 2.6 23.4 www.vodafone.hu Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Lithuania 39 Table 54: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Lithuania (End 2009 – End 2015F) Lithuania Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 40 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 4.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Penetration (In Percent) 129.9 138.7 139.4 139.9 140.4 140.9 141.4 38 Note: The market witnessed a decline in subscriber base from 11.4 million at end-2008 to 11.2 at end-2009, due to the economic slowdown. 39 Note: The forecasted growth in subscriber base for the Lithuanian market during 2010-2015 is small and does not get reflected in the subscriber base as it is approximated to one decimal place. 40 Note: The market witnessed a decline in subscriber base from 4.9 million at end-2008 to 4.6 at end-2009. 54 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 55. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 55: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Lithuania (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Omnitel 2.0 2.0 2.0 43.0 www.omnitel.lt Tele2 1.6 1.6 1.6 36.3 www.tele2.lt BITE 1.0 1.0 0.9 20.7 www.bite.lt Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Poland 41 Table 56: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Poland (End 2009 – End 2015F) Poland Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 44.7 45.4 45.9 46.3 46.6 46.8 47.0 Penetration (In Percent) 116.2 118.0 119.5 120.6 121.5 122.2 122.8 Table 57: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Poland (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Orange 13.7 13.8 14.2 31.6 www.orange.pl Plus 14.0 13.7 13.7 30.5 www.plusgsm.pl PTC 13.5 13.4 13.3 29.6 www.era.pl Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 41 Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 55
  • 56. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Romania 42 Table 58: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Romania (End 2009 – End 2015F) Romania Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 29.4 30.1 31.1 31.9 32.5 33.0 33.4 Penetration (In Percent) 133.8 137.3 142.3 146.3 149.5 152.1 154.2 Table 59: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Romania (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Orange 11.0 10.8 10.5 35.7 www.orange.ro Vodafone 9.7 9.7 9.8 33.5 www.vodafone.ro Cosmote 6.9 7.2 7.1 24.2 www.cosmote.ro MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Russia 43 Table 60: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Russia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Russia Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 208.0 218.8 229.6 238.0 244.5 249.5 253.3 Penetration (In Percent) 148.9 157.3 165.8 172.8 178.4 182.9 186.7 42,43 56 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 57. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 61: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Russia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) MTS 69.3 69.1 69.4 32.3 www.mtsgsm.com MegaFon 50.0 52.0 55.0 25.6 eng.megafon.ru VimpelCom 50.9 51.3 50.9 23.7 www.vimpelcom.com Tele2 14.5 15.4 16.5 7.7 www.tele2.ru Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website VimpelCom Russia Headquarters: Moscow, Russia Launch of 3G services: September 2008 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 50.9 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): -0.7 Monthly ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 10.9 Recent Developments: In July 2010, VimpelCom acquired Russian fixed line operator, Foratek Communication, for USD 46.43 million Serbia Table 62: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Serbia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Serbia Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 10.0 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.8 Penetration (In Percent) 135.8 145.0 150.9 155.6 159.4 162.4 164.9 Table 63: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Serbia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) mt:s 6.0 6.1 6.2 59.7 www.telekom.rs Telenor 2.8 2.9 2.9 28.0 www.telenor.co.rs VIP 1.2 1.2 1.3 12.3 www.vipmobile.rs MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Website 57
  • 58. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Slovakia 44 Table 64: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Slovakia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Slovakia Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 Penetration (In Percent) 106.9 111.4 113.1 114.3 115.2 115.9 116.4 Table 65: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Slovakia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Orange 2.9 2.9 2.8 47.7 www.orange.sk T-Mobile 2.4 2.4 2.4 40.4 www.t-mobile.sk O2 0.6 0.6 0.7 11.9 www.sk.o2.com Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Turkey Table 66: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Turkey (End 2009 – End 2015F) Turkey Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 45 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 45 66.9 68.1 69.0 69.7 70.3 70.7 Penetration (In Percent) 44 62.9 81.3 85.5 85.9 86.0 85.9 85.6 85.2 Note: The sum of subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ for 2009 may be more than the subscribers in the market due to rounding-off errors. Note: The market witnessed a decline in subscriber base from 65.9 million at end-2008 to 62.9 at end-2009, with the primary reason for this being the implementation of mobile number portability (which led to a reduction in multiple SIM usage) and the overall economic slowdown. 58 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 59. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 67: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Turkey (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Turkcell 35.4 34.3 33.9 55.1 www.turkcell.com Vodafone 15.7 15.8 16.1 26.2 www.vodafone.com.tr Avea 11.8 11.7 11.5 18.6 www.avea.com.tr Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Turkcell Turkey Headquarters: Istanbul, Turkey Launch of 3G services: July 2009 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 33.9 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): -1.2 Monthly ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 12.6 Recent Developments: In May 2010, Turkcell deployed an Internet Protocol Next-Generation Network (IP NGN) on Cisco’s Carrier Routing System (CRS) platform to manage 3G traffic and offer enhanced mobile services with HSPA+ speeds. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 59
  • 60. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Ukraine 46 Table 68: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Ukraine (End 2009 – End 2015F) Ukraine Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 47 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 54.8 55.7 56.2 56.5 56.8 56.9 57.0 Penetration (In Percent) 120.3 123.1 124.9 126.4 127.8 128.9 130.0 Table 69: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Ukraine (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Kyivstar 22.0 21.9 21.9 40.3 www.kyivstar.ua MTS 17.6 17.3 17.5 32.1 www.mts.com.ua life:) 12.2 11.9 11.7 21.5 www.life.com.ua Beeline 2.0 2.0 2.1 3.9 www.beeline.ua Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website 46 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 47 Note: The market saw a decline in subscriber base from 55.1 million at end-2008 to 54.8 at end-2009, primarily because of changes to the way subscriber numbers are reported/calculated, and the overall economic slowdown. 60 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 61. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 North America  By end-2009, the North American mobile subscriber base stood at 313.5 million. The subscriber base is expected to increase marginally to reach 334.6 million by end-2010, accounting for over 6.4 percent of the worldwide subscriber base.  The mobile subscriber base in the region is forecast to increase to 406.3 million by end-2015, registering a CAGR of 4.4 percent during 2009-2015.  North America’s contribution to the worldwide mobile subscriber base is expected to decline to 5.5 percent by end-2015. Figure 24: Mobile Subscribers — North America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 600 CAGR = 4.4% 400 313.5 382.2 406.3 334.6 368.0 395.0 352.1 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 200 0 2009 Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted  The operators in the US contributed over 92 percent to the total regional subscriber base as of end2009. This contribution is expected to increase slightly to 93 percent by end-2015.  Verizon and AT&T emerged as the two leading operators in the region with subscriber base of 92.1 million and 90.1 million respectively as of end-June 2010. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 61
  • 62. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 70: Countries’ Mobile Subscriber Base — North America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) CAGR (In Percent, 2009– 2015) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Country 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Canada 23.0 24.1 25.2 26.2 27.1 27.8 28.5 3.7 The US 290.4 310.3 326.8 341.6 355.0 367.0 377.7 4.5 48 Table 71: Top Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — North America (In Million, Q2 2010) Operator Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Monthly ARPU (In USD) Churn (In Percent) Verizon US 92.1 51.6 1.3 AT&T US 90.1 50.0 1.3 Sprint US 48.2 48.3 2.9 T-Mobile US 33.6 46.1 3.4 TracFone US 15.9 12.0 4.0 Rogers Canada 8.6 63.6 1.4 Metro PCS US 7.6 39.8 3.3 Bell Mobility Canada 7.0 52.1 1.8 Telus Mobility Canada 6.7 57.5 1.5 US Cellular US 6.1 52.6 1.4 5.3 37.6 4.6 0.5 NA NA 0.5 56.1 1.3 Leap Wireless International SaskTel Mobility Canada MTS Allstream Canada  The subscribers using 3G and above networks comprised 37.2 percent of total mobile subscribers in the region at end-2010; this is estimated to reach 78 percent by end-2015.  The 3G subscriber base in the region is expected to grow from 74.4 million at end-2009 to 316.4 million at end-2015, a CAGR of 27.3 percent. This high growth will primarily be attributed to the technical advancements in the North American market. 48 Note: Due to rounding off to one decimal place, two operators appear to have the same number of mobile subscribers. 62 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 63. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 25: Technology Forecast — North America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 450 375 74.4 239.1 174.0 178.1 124.6 210.0 220.1 147.9 316.4 261.6 301.4 120.6 93.6 89.9 2013F 2014F 2015F 300 225 150 75 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F Year 3G and above 2G and others Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Canada 49 Table 72: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Canada (End 2009 – End 2015F) Canada Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 23.0 24.1 25.2 26.2 27.1 27.8 28.5 Penetration (In Percent) 68.3 71.2 73.8 76.1 78.0 79.6 80.9 Table 73: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Canada (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Rogers 8.5 8.5 8.6 36.6 www.rogers.com Bell Mobility 6.8 6.9 7.0 29.6 www.bell.ca Telus Mobility 6.5 6.6 6.7 28.4 www.telusmobility.com Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 49 Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few MNOs (with lower market share) operational in the market. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 63
  • 64. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Rogers Canada Headquarters: Toronto, Canada Launch of 3G services: November 2006 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 8.6 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): 1.4 ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 63.6 Recent Developments: As part of the strategic relationship announced between Rogers Canada and TBayTel, TBayTel will service Rogers’ mobile subscribers with ‘807’ area code, starting November 2010. The companies also plan to co-brand their mobile services in Northern Ontario region and the partnership will allow Rogers’ customers to access TBayTel’s converged product bundles. The US 50 Table 74: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The US (End 2009 – End 2015F) The US Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 290.4 310.3 326.8 341.7 355.0 367.0 377.7 Penetration (In Percent) 94.1 99.5 103.8 107.5 110.6 113.3 115.5 Table 75: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The US (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Verizon 91.2 92.8 92.1 30.8 www.verizonwireless.com AT&T 85.1 87.0 90.1 30.1 www.att.com Sprint 48.1 48.1 48.2 16.1 www.sprint.com T-Mobile 33.8 33.7 33.6 11.2 www.t-mobile.com MNO 50 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few MNOs (with lower market share) operational in the market. 64 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 65. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Latin America  The subscriber base in the region was 494.0 million at end-2009; it is expected to grow to 534.8 million at end-2010 and to 686.5 million by end-2015.  The subscriber base in the region is expected to increase at a CAGR of 5.6 percent during 20092015.  Brazil and Mexico are forecast to be major countries in terms of subscriber base at end-2010, with subscriber shares of 36.5 percent and 16.6 percent respectively.  The other countries in the region with significant share of subscribers at end-2010 include Argentina (9.5 percent), Colombia (7.9 percent) and Venezuela (5.7 percent). Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Figure 26: Mobile Subscribers — Latin America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) CAGR = 5.6% 800 700 600 494.0 534.8 574.4 608.1 637.9 663.9 686.5 2013F 2014F 2015F 500 400 300 200 100 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 65
  • 66. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 51 Table 76: Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Latin America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F CAGR (In Percent, 2009-2015) Argentina 48.0 50.8 53.7 56.4 58.6 60.5 62.2 4.4 Brazil 176.5 195.1 211.8 225.8 238.1 250.8 261.9 6.8 Chile 17.6 19.4 20.9 22.2 23.4 24.4 25.3 6.2 Colombia 40.5 42.4 43.9 45.1 46.0 46.8 47.4 2.7 Jamaica 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 7.5 Mexico 83.1 89.0 93.9 98.2 101.8 104.8 107.4 4.4 Peru 20.6 23.3 25.9 28.5 30.9 33.2 35.2 9.3 Venezuela 29.6 30.7 31.9 33.0 33.9 34.7 35.3 3.0 Country  Peru, Jamaica and Brazil will witness high subscriber growth in the region during 2009-2015, with CAGRs of 9.3 percent, 7.5 percent and 6.8 percent respectively.  Brazil, the leading market in the region, will witness subscriber base grow from 176.5 million at end2009 to 261.9 million by end-2015.  Colombia is forecast to witness the slowest growth in the region with a CAGR of 2.7 percent between 2009 and 2015. Figure 27: Top 5 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Latin America (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) 12% CAGR (In Percent) 9.3% 9% 7.5% 6.8% 6.2% 6% 4.4% 3% 0% Peru Jamaica Brazil Chile Argentina Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 51 Note: The table covers major markets of the region, hence the sum of countries’ subscribers will not add up to the total regional subscriber base. 66 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 67. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 77: Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Latin America (In Million, Q2 2010) Operator Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Monthly ARPU (In USD) Churn (In Percent) Telcel Mexico 61.3 13.3 3.0 Vivo Brazil 56.0 14.2 2.6 Claro Brazil 46.9 10.6 3.2 TIM Brazil 44.4 13.6 NA Oi Brazil 37.2 12.5 3.4 Comcel Colombia 28.1 8.2 3.6 Movistar Mexico 18.3 9.6 2.1 Claro Argentina 17.0 9.1 1.9 Movistar Argentina 16.4 11.8 1.8 Telecom Personal Argentina 15.3 10.9 NA Movilnet Venezuela 13.6 NA NA Movistar Peru 11.8 8.1 3.4 Movistar Venezuela 10.3 18.0 2.4 Movistar Colombia 9.5 9.1 3.3 Claro Peru 9.1 7.6 2.9 Movistar Chile 8.0 15.4 1.4 Entel PCS Chile 6.8 17 1.5 Digitel Venezuela 5.4 NA NA Claro Chile 4.0 9.7 4.3 Tigo Colombia 3.9 11.5 4.6  The 3G and above subscriber base in the region is forecast to grow from 22.3 million at end-2009 to 302.2 million at end-2015, indicating a CAGR of 54.4 percent.  Subscribers using 3G and above networks comprised 10.9 percent of total mobile subscribers in the region at end-2010; this is estimated to reach 44 percent by end-2015. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 67
  • 68. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 28: Technology Forecast — Latin America (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 800 600 158.2 103.4 302.2 280.6 219.3 22.3 58.3 471.7 476.5 471.0 449.9 418.6 383.3 384.3 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 400 200 0 Year 3G and above 2G and others Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Argentina Table 78: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Argentina (End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Argentina 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 48.0 50.8 53.7 56.4 58.6 60.5 62.2 Penetration (In Percent) 116.6 122.1 128.0 132.9 136.9 140.0 142.5 Table 79: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Argentina (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Claro 16.5 16.7 17.0 34.1 www.claro.com.ar Movistar 15.9 16.2 16.4 32.9 www.movistar.com.ar Telecom Personal 14.5 14.9 15.3 30.8 www.personal.com.ar Nextel 1.0 1.1 1.1 2.2 www.nextel.com.ar Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 68 Website © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 69. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Brazil 52 Table 80: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Brazil (End 2009 – End 2015F) Brazil Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 53 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 176.5 195.1 211.8 225.8 238.1 250.8 261.9 Penetration (In Percent) 88.3 96.5 103.5 109.2 113.9 118.7 122.7 Table 81: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Brazil (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Vivo 51.7 53.9 56.0 29.8 www.vivo.com.br Claro 44.4 45.6 46.9 24.9 www.claro.com.br TIM Brasil 41.1 42.4 44.4 23.6 www.timbrasil.com.br 36.1 36.6 37.3 19.8 www.oi.com.br 2.5 2.7 2.9 1.5 www.nextel.com.br Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Oi 54 Nextel Website Claro Brazil Headquarters: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Launch of 3G services: November 2007 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 46.9 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): 2.9 Monthly ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 10.6 Recent Developments: In May 2010, Carlos Slim, the CEO of América Móvil and wealthiest person in the world (2010), merged his fixed-line (‘Embratel’) and mobile (‘Claro’) operations in Latin America, in order to reduce the operating costs and improve profitability. This merger will include the merger of Claro and Embratel in Brazil. 52 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 53 Note: With reference to our previous report 'Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014', Brazil surpassed our expectations of mobile subscriber growth by 6.0 million in 2009. In 2009, operators offered attractive plans such as lower call rates for calling users on the same network, and bulk SMS which encouraged users to own more than one mobile SIM. 54 Note: In 2009, Brasil Telecom was acquired by Oi and its subscriber base has been included in Oi’s subscriber base. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 69
  • 70. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chile 55 Table 82: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Chile (End 2009 – End 2015F) Chile Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 17.6 19.4 20.9 22.2 23.4 24.4 25.3 Penetration (In Percent) 105.7 115.4 123.1 129.9 135.7 140.6 144.8 Table 83: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Chile (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Movistar 7.5 7.8 8.0 42.3 www.movistar.cl Entel PCS 6.5 6.6 6.8 35.9 www.entelpcs.cl Claro 3.6 3.8 4.0 21.4 www.clarochile.cl Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Colombia Table 84: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Colombia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Colombia 56 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 40.5 42.4 43.9 45.1 46.0 46.8 47.4 Penetration (In Percent) 92.1 95.4 97.6 99.1 100.1 100.6 100.9 Table 85: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Colombia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Comcel 27.8 28.0 28.1 67.6 www.comcel.com.co Movistar 9.0 9.3 9.5 22.9 www.movistar.com.co Tigo 3.7 3.8 3.9 9.5 www.tigo.com.co Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 55 56 Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. Note: The market saw a decline in subscriber base from 40.7 million at end-2008 to 40.5 at end-2009 because of the disconnection of inactive user accounts. 70 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 71. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Jamaica Table 86: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Jamaica (End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Jamaica 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8 Penetration (In Percent) 110.7 124.0 134.0 142.9 150.7 157.5 163.3 Table 87: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Jamaica (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Digicel 2.1 2.1 2.1 61.8 www.digiceljamaica.com Cable & Wireless 0.7 0.7 0.7 21.1 www.cw.com Claro 0.3 0.5 0.6 17.1 www.claro.com.jm Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Mexico 57 Table 88: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Mexico (End 2009 – End 2015F) Mexico Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 83.1 89.0 93.9 98.2 101.8 104.8 107.4 Penetration (In Percent) 57 2009 74.3 78.7 82.1 84.9 87.1 88.8 90.1 Note: The sum of subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ for 2009 may be more than the subscribers in the market due to rounding-off errors. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 71
  • 72. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 58 Table 89: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Mexico (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Telcel 59.2 60.3 61.3 70.9 www.telcel.com Movistar 17.4 17.8 18.3 21.1 www.movistar.com.mx Iusacell 3.6 3.6 3.7 4.3 www.iusacell.com.mx Nextel 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.7 www.nextel.com.mx Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Peru Table 90: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Peru (End 2009 – End 2015F) Peru Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 20.6 23.3 25.9 28.5 30.9 33.2 35.2 Penetration (In Percent) 69.3 77.3 85.2 92.6 99.3 105.4 110.8 Table 91: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Peru (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Movistar 11.5 11.7 11.8 54.0 www.movistar.com.pe Claro 8.3 8.7 9.1 41.5 www.claro.com.pe Nextel 0.8 0.9 1.0 4.4 www.nextel.com.pe Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 58 Website Note: The total of the MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers is greater than the country’s total subscriber base due to rounding-off errors. 72 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 73. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Venezuela Table 92: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Venezuela (End 2009 – End 2015F) Venezuela Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 29.6 30.7 31.9 33.0 33.9 34.7 35.3 Penetration (In Percent) 109.6 111.8 114.7 116.8 118.3 119.2 119.7 Table 93: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Venezuela (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Movilnet 13.4 13.6 13.6 46.6 www.movilnet.com.ve Movistar 10.5 10.3 10.3 35.1 www.movistar.com.ve Digitel 5.7 5.5 5.4 18.3 www.digitel.com.ve Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Website 73
  • 74. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Asia Pacific  Mobile subscribers in the region are expected to reach 2,521.2 million by end-2010.  China, India and Indonesia are expected to be the top three countries in the region in terms of subscriber base at end-2010.  The subscriber base in the region is expected to increase at a CAGR of 10.3 percent during 20092015.  India, Bangladesh and Indonesia are expected to be the top three markets in terms of subscriber growth during 2009-2015. Figure 29: Mobile Subscribers — Asia Pacific (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 5000 CAGR = 10.3% 4000 3,156.4 3,416.5 3,643.9 3,838.1 2,856.5 3000 2,521.2 2,132.1 2000 1000 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 74 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 75. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 59 Table 94: Major Markets’ Subscriber Base — Asia Pacific (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) CAGR (In Percent, 2009– 2015) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Country 2009 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Afghanistan 12.4 15.7 17.1 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.5 6.9 Australia 28.9 30.4 32.7 34.6 36.2 37.6 38.7 5.0 Bangladesh 52.4 65.6 77.3 89.2 101.0 112.7 124.0 15.4 China 726.0 835.0 918.2 987.9 1,045.1 1,091.4 1,128.4 7.6 Hong Kong 10.1 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.3 4.8 India 525.2 702.2 863.9 1,010.4 1,141.7 1,257.7 1,358.4 17.2 Indonesia 160.1 183.0 204.5 225.7 246.5 267.1 286.5 10.2 Japan 110.6 118.0 123.3 128.2 132.5 136.5 140.0 4.0 Kazakhstan 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 2.0 Malaysia 31.1 33.3 36.2 38.9 41.4 43.8 46.0 6.8 New Zealand 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 2.9 Pakistan 97.9 104.9 112.5 120.4 127.5 131.6 134.8 5.5 The Philippines 75.3 88.0 97.9 107.1 115.4 122.8 129.3 9.4 Singapore 6.9 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5 3.7 South Korea 47.9 51.3 53.6 55.7 57.5 59.0 60.4 3.9 Taiwan 26.3 27.6 28.3 28.9 29.4 29.8 30.2 2.3 Thailand 65.6 70.4 74.8 78.7 82.3 85.4 88.2 5.1 Vietnam 59 2010F 107.7 123.0 135.0 145.2 151.6 156.3 157.6 6.6 Note: The table covers major markets of the region, hence the sum of countries’ subscribers will not add up to the total regional subscriber base. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 75
  • 76. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 25% 20% 17.2% 15.4% 6.9% 6.8% 6.6% 5.5% 5.1% Thailand 7.6% Pakistan 9.4% Vietnam 10.2% 10% Malaysia 15% Afghanistan CAGR (In Percent) Figure 30: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Asia Pacific (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) 5% China The Philippines Indonesia Bangladesh India 0% Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted  India is expected to lead the region in terms of subscriber growth during 2009-2015, with a CAGR of 17.2 percent, followed by Bangladesh (15.4 percent) and Indonesia (10.2 percent).  While a majority of the countries are expected to have a growth rate of more than 5 percent during 2009-2015, some of the markets are expected to witness slower growth in subscriber base, including Kazakhstan (2.0 percent), Taiwan (2.3 percent) and New Zealand (2.9 percent), during the same period.  China Mobile (554.0 million), China Unicom (157.0 million) and Bharti Airtel India (136.6 million) are the leading operators in the region in terms of subscriber base at Q2 2010. 76 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 77. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 95: Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Asia Pacific (In Million, Q2 2010) Operators Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Monthly ARPU (In USD) Churn (In Percent) China Mobile 554.0 10.8 NA China Unicom 157.0 6.4 NA Bharti Airtel India 136.6 4.6 5.8 Reliance Communication India 110.8 2.6 3.5 Vodafone India 109.1 3.8 3.2 Telkomsel Indonesia 88.3 4.7* NA China Telecom 74.5 8.7 NA BSNL India 72.7 NA NA Tata Teleservices India 72.5 NA NA Idea Cellular India 68.9 3.6 3.2 NTT DoCoMo Japan 56.5 57.1 0.4 Smart Philippines 45.3 3.6 NA Aircel India 41.7 NA NA Satelindo Indonesia 37.8 3.8 NA Viettel Corporation Vietnam 37.7 NA NA XL Axiata Indonesia 35.2 3.8 NA Mobilink Pakistan 32.2 2.9 2.0 KDDI Japan 32.1 56.8 0.8 MobiFone Vietnam 30.9 NA NA AIS Thailand 30.0 7.2 4.5 *The ARPU has decreased over Q2 2009 in Indonesian Rupiah terms but increased in dollar terms  The 3G and above subscribers in the region are expected to increase from 288.3 million at end2009 to 2,388.6 million at end-2015, indicating a CAGR of 42.3 percent.  Subscribers using 3G and above networks comprised 16.3 percent at end-2010; this is forecast to reach 62.2 percent by end-2015. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 77
  • 78. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 60 Figure 31: Technology Forecast — Asia Pacific (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 4200 2,388.6 2,019.2 3500 1,109.0 1,556.9 720.7 2800 411.0 288.3 2100 1400 1,843.8 2,110.2 2009 700 2010F 2,135.7 2,047.3 1,859.5 1,624.7 1,449.5 2013F 2014F 2015F 0 2011F 2012F Year 3G and above 2G and others Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Afghanistan Table 96: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Afghanistan (End 2009 – End 2015F) Afghanistan Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 12.4 15.7 17.1 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.5 Penetration (In Percent) 43.1 53.2 56.8 57.9 57.7 57.0 56.1 Table 97: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Afghanistan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) TDCA 3.7 3.7 3.7 27.0 www.roshan.af MTN 3.2 3.4 3.6 26.2 www.mtn.com.af Etisalat 2.9 3.1 3.3 24.1 www.etisalat.af AWCC 2.6 3.0 3.1 22.7 www.afghan-wireless.com Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 60 78 Website Note: The sum of 2G and others, and 3G and above subscribers may not add up to the region’s subscriber base due to rounding-off errors. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 79. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Australia Table 98: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Australia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Australia Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 61 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 28.9 30.4 32.7 34.6 36.2 37.6 38.7 Penetration (In Percent) 135.3 140.3 149.2 156.3 161.9 166.1 169.2 Table 99: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Australia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Telstra 10.4 10.5 10.6 34.9 www.telstra.com.au Optus 8.2 8.5 8.7 28.7 www.optus.com.au 3 6.9 7.4 7.5 24.7 www.three.com.au Vodafone 3.4 3.5 3.6 11.7 www.vodafone.com.au Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Bangladesh 62 Table 100: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Bangladesh (End 2009 – End 2015F) Bangladesh Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 52.4 65.6 77.3 89.2 101.0 112.7 124.0 Penetration (In Percent) 62 2010F Subscribers (In Million) 61 2009 33.8 41.7 48.4 54.9 61.2 67.2 72.8 Note: With reference to our previous report 'Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014', Australia surpassed our expectation of mobile subscribers’ base by 4.3 million in 2009. Australian operator 'Hutchison 3G' grew by 239.1 percent in 2009 as compared to 2008. Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 79
  • 80. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 101: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Bangladesh (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) GrameenPhone 23.3 23.9 26.5 44.1 www.grameenphone.com Banglalink 13.9 14.2 16.1 26.8 www.banglalinkgsm.com 63 9.3 10.6 11.1 18.5 www.robi.com.bd Warid 3.0 3.0 3.2 5.3 www.waridtel.com.bd Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Robi Website China Table 102: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — China (End 2009 – End 2015F) China Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 64 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 726.0 835.0 918.2 987.9 1045.1 1091.4 1128.4 Penetration (In Percent) 54.7 62.6 68.5 73.4 77.3 80.3 82.7 Table 103: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — China (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) China Mobile 522.3 538.9 554.0 70.5 www.chinamobileltd.com China Unicom 147.6 152.1 157.0 20.0 www.chinaunicom.com.cn China Telecom 56.1 65.5 74.5 9.5 www.chinatelecom-h.com MNO 63 64 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: In March 2010, the company name was changed from Aktel to Robi. Note: With reference to our previous report 'Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014', China did not show the expected growth in mobile subscribers’ base in 2009. The factors such as telecommunications industry restructuring and global financial crisis led to slower growth in subscribers. 80 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 81. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 China Mobile Headquarters: Beijing, China Launch of 3G services: April 2008 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 554.0 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): 2.8 Monthly ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 10.8 Recent Developments: China Mobile plans to introduce converged multimedia applications in its network to enhance its mobile communication offerings. It has awarded the contract to Nokia Siemens Networks, to implement IMS Core platform, hiQ MMTel application server and Session Border Controller (SBC), to achieve converged communications. Hong Kong Table 104: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Hong Kong (End 2009 – End 2015F) Hong Kong Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 10.1 10.8 11.4 11.9 12.5 12.9 13.3 Penetration (In Percent) 142.3 151.7 159.6 166.7 173.1 178.7 183.8 Table 105: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Hong Kong (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) 3 3.0 3.0 3.1 29.0 www.three.com.hk CSL New World Mobility 2.8 2.9 3.0 28.7 www.hkcsl.com Peoples 1.6 1.6 1.7 15.8 www.peoples.com.hk PCCW Mobile 1.4 1.4 1.5 14.0 www.pccwmobile.com SmarTone 1.2 1.3 1.3 12.5 www.smartone.com.hk MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved Website 81
  • 82. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 India 65 Table 106: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — India (End 2009 – End 2015F) India Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 66 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 525.2 702.2 863.9 1010.4 1141.7 1257.7 1358.4 Penetration (In Percent) 45.1 59.4 72.2 83.3 92.9 101.1 107.9 Table 107: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — India (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Bharti Airtel 118.9 127.6 136.6 21.5 www.airtel.in Reliance Communication 93.8 102.4 110.8 17.4 www.rcom.co.in Vodafone 91.4 100.9 109.1 17.2 www.vodafone.in BSNL 62.9 69.5 72.7 11.4 www.bsnl.co.in Tata Teleservices 57.3 65.9 72.5 11.4 www.tatateleservices.com Idea Cellular 57.6 63.8 68.9 10.8 www.ideacellular.com Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Indonesia 67 Table 108: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Indonesia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Indonesia Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 160.1 183.0 204.5 225.7 246.5 267.1 286.5 Penetration (In Percent) 66.3 74.9 82.8 90.5 97.8 104.9 111.5 65,67 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 66 Note: With reference to our previous report 'Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014', India surpassed our expectation of mobile subscribers’ base by 35 million in 2009. With the launch of Tata Docomo, the subscriber base of Tata Teleservices grew by 80.5 percent in 2009 as compared to 46.1 percent in 2008. Tata Teleservices alone contributed a growth of 25 million mobile subscribers in 2009. 82 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 83. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 109: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Indonesia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Telkomsel 81.6 82.0 88.3 49.7 www.telkomsel.com Satelindo 33.0 37.8 37.8 21.3 www.indosat.com 31.4 32.6 35.2 19.9 www.xl.co.id 8.5 9.2 9.9 5.6 www.three.co.id Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO XL Axiata 68 3 Website Japan 69 Table 110: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Japan (End 2009 – End 2015F) Japan Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 110.6 118.0 123.3 128.2 132.5 136.5 140.0 Penetration (In Percent) 87.1 93.2 97.6 101.8 105.6 109.2 112.5 Table 111: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Japan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) NTT DoCoMo 55.4 56.1 56.5 49.7 www.nttdocomo.com KDDI 31.4 31.9 32.1 28.2 www.kddi.com SoftBank 21.7 21.9 22.6 19.9 www.softbank.jp MNO 68 69 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: Excelcomindo has been rebranded to XL Axiata. Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 83
  • 84. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Kazakhstan 70 Table 112: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Kazakhstan (End 2009 – End 2015F) Kazakhstan Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 Penetration (In Percent) 97.1 98.9 101.7 103.7 105.1 106.0 106.6 Table 113: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Kazakhstan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Kcell 7.1 7.5 7.8 51.6 www.kcell.kz KaR-Tel 6.1 6.1 6.3 41.8 www.beeline.kz Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Malaysia 71 Table 114: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Malaysia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Malaysia Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 31.1 33.3 36.2 38.9 41.4 43.8 46.0 Penetration (In Percent) 110.8 116.9 125.0 132.3 138.8 144.6 149.7 Table 115: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Malaysia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Maxis 12.3 12.7 13.0 39.6 www.maxis.com.my Celcom 10.1 10.4 10.6 32.4 www.celcom.com.my DiGi 7.7 7.9 8.1 24.8 www.digi.com.my Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website 70,71 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 84 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 85. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 New Zealand Table 116: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — New Zealand (End 2009 – End 2015F) New Zealand Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 Penetration (In Percent) 118.3 121.9 125.4 128.2 130.4 132.1 133.4 Table 117: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — New Zealand (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Vodafone 2.5 2.5 2.5 49.1 www.vodafone.co.nz Telecom Mobile 2.3 2.3 2.2 43.0 www.telecom.co.nz Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Pakistan 72 Table 118: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Pakistan (End 2009 – End 2015F) Pakistan Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 97.9 104.9 112.5 120.4 127.5 131.6 134.8 Penetration (In Percent) 72 2009 53.5 56.4 59.6 62.8 65.5 66.6 67.2 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 85
  • 86. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 119: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Pakistan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Mobilink 30.8 31.5 32.2 32.4 www.mobilinkgsm.com Telenor 22.5 23.3 23.8 23.9 www.telenor.com.pk Ufone 18.5 18.8 19.5 19.6 www.ufone.com Warid 18.8 16.3 16.9 17.0 www.waridtel.com CMPak 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.7 www.zong.com.pk Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website The Philippines 73 Table 120: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The Philippines (End 2009 – End 2015F) The Philippines Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 75.3 88.0 97.9 107.1 115.4 122.8 129.3 Penetration (In Percent) 76.1 87.3 95.3 102.2 108.1 113.0 117.0 Table 121: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The Philippines (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Smart 41.3 43.2 45.3 53.2 www.smart.com.ph Globe 23.2 23.9 24.6 28.9 www.globe.com.ph Sun 10.5 11.0 14.0 16.4 www.suncellular.com.ph MNO 73 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 86 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 87. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Singapore Table 122: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Singapore (End 2009 – End 2015F) Singapore Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 6.9 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.3 8.5 Penetration (In Percent) 146.5 151.3 157.6 163.0 167.4 171.1 174.0 Table 123: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Singapore (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) SingTel 3.2 3.1 3.1 44.4 www.singtel.com StarHub 1.9 2.0 2.1 29.3 www.starhub.com M1 1.8 1.8 1.8 26.3 www.m1.com.sg Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website South Korea 74 Table 124: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — South Korea (End 2009 – End 2015F) South Korea Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 47.9 51.3 53.6 55.7 57.5 59.0 60.4 Penetration (In Percent) 74 2009 98.7 105.3 109.8 113.8 117.3 120.3 122.9 Note: The sum of subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ for 2009 may be more than the subscribers in the market due to rounding-off errors. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 87
  • 88. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 125: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — South Korea (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) SK Telecom 24.3 24.8 25.1 50.7 www.sktelecom.com KTF 15.0 15.4 15.6 31.4 www.kt.com 8.7 8.8 8.9 17.9 www.lgtelecom.com Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO 75 LG Uplus Website Taiwan 76 Table 126: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Taiwan (End 2009 – End 2015F) Taiwan Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 26.3 27.6 28.3 28.9 29.4 29.8 30.2 Penetration (In Percent) 114.2 119.6 122.7 125.1 127.1 128.6 129.9 Table 127: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Taiwan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Chunghwa 9.3 9.4 9.4 35.0 www.cht.com.tw Taiwan Mobile 6.4 6.4 6.4 23.7 www.taiwanmobile.com FET 6.2 6.2 6.3 23.2 www.fetnet.net MNO 75 76 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: In January 2010, LG group merged its three telecom subsidiaries – LG Telecom, LG Dacom and LG Powercom and renamed them to ‘LG Uplus’. Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 88 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 89. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Thailand 77 Table 128: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Thailand (End 2009 – End 2015F) Thailand Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 65.6 70.4 74.8 78.7 82.3 85.4 88.2 Penetration (In Percent) 98.1 104.6 110.4 115.5 120.0 124.0 127.3 Table 129: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Thailand (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) AIS 28.8 29.5 30.0 43.8 www.ais.co.th DTAC 19.7 20.3 20.6 30.1 www.dtac.co.th True Move 15.8 16.2 16.4 23.9 www.truemove.com MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Advanced Info Service (AIS) Thailand Headquarters: Bangkok, Thailand Launch of 3G services: May 2008 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 30.0 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): 1.7 Monthly ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 7.2 Recent Developments: In the absence of its own UMTS license, AIS plans to partner with state-run telecom operator 'TOT' to expand its 3G services. AIS, which currently offer limited 3G services, plans to launch a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) on TOT’s infrastructure to offer 3G data services and network roaming to its subscribers. 77 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 89
  • 90. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Vietnam 78 Table 130: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Vietnam (End 2009 – End 2015F) Vietnam Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 79 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 107.7 123.0 135.0 145.2 151.6 156.3 157.6 Penetration (In Percent) 120.9 136.6 148.3 157.8 163.1 166.5 166.3 Table 131: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Vietnam (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Viettel Corporation 36.2 36.9 37.7 32.3 www.viettel.com.vn MobiFone 29.6 30.3 30.9 26.5 www.mobifone.com.vn Vinaphone 26.7 27.6 28.9 24.7 www.vinaphone.com.vn S-Fone 7.8 7.9 8.0 6.8 www.sfone.com.vn MNO 78 79 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. Note: With reference to our previous report 'Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014', Vietnam surpassed our expectation of subscriber base by 5.6 million for 2009. The fierce reduction in call charges by all the operators led to an unexpected upsurge in the mobile subscribers’ base in 2009. 90 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 91. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Africa and Middle East  The mobile subscriber base in Africa and Middle East is expected to total 785.4 million by end2010.  The subscriber base in the region is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10.4 percent during 2009-2015, with Sudan, Nigeria and Uganda as the top three markets in terms of subscriber growth.  Nigeria, Iran and Egypt are the top three markets in terms of subscriber base at end-2009 with the same three markets expected to be the major contributors to the total subscriber base at end-2015. Figure 32: Mobile Subscribers — Africa and Middle East (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 1500 CAGR = 10.4% 1200 900 785.4 889.0 988.8 1,076.1 1,227.5 1,155.7 677.9 600 300 0 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 91
  • 92. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 132: Major Markets’ Mobile Subscriber Base — Africa and Middle East (In Million, End 2009 – End 80 2015F) CAGR (In Percent, 2009– 2015) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Country 2009 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Algeria 31.6 34.8 37.3 39.5 41.3 42.7 43.9 5.6 Angola 8.7 10.5 11.5 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.3 7.3 Bahrain 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 5.6 DR of Congo 8.7 10.9 12.3 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.2 11.0 Egypt 58.1 65.3 76.6 88.1 99.5 110.7 121.4 13.1 Ghana 15.4 17.5 19.9 22.0 23.9 25.4 26.6 9.6 Iran 58.2 64.1 73.7 82.7 90.8 98.1 104.5 10.3 Iraq 20.6 23.0 25.6 27.9 29.9 31.6 33.1 8.2 Israel 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 1.6 Jordan 6.1 6.8 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.2 7.1 Kenya 18.9 21.2 24.0 26.6 29.0 31.2 33.2 9.8 Kuwait 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.3 8.6 Lesotho 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 13.1 Morocco 25.3 29.9 33.8 37.4 40.9 44.2 47.2 10.9 Mozambique 6.0 7.0 8.3 9.5 10.6 11.6 12.4 12.9 Nigeria 72.0 89.3 106.5 124.1 141.8 159.1 176.0 16.1 Oman 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 8.8 Qatar 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.8 11.5 Saudi Arabia 44.6 49.1 54.5 59.1 63.0 66.2 68.9 7.5 South Africa 49.8 53.7 55.9 57.8 59.3 60.5 61.5 3.6 Sudan 16.5 22.8 29.3 35.7 41.8 47.5 52.5 21.3 Syria 9.3 10.2 11.3 12.3 13.2 14.0 14.6 7.9 Tanzania 17.3 20.2 22.8 24.9 26.6 27.8 28.8 8.9 Tunisia 10.4 11.8 13.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.2 7.6 The UAE 11.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.4 5.4 Uganda 80 2010F 11.9 14.4 17.4 20.3 23.1 25.7 28.1 15.4 Note: The table covers major markets of the region, hence the sum of countries’ subscribers will not add up to the total regional subscriber base. 92 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 93. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015  With the MNOs in the region investing heavily to achieve 100 percent network coverage, the mobile penetration in Africa and Middle East markets is expected to improve significantly during the period 2009-2015.  Several African and Middle Eastern markets such as Sudan, Nigeria, Uganda, Lesotho, Egypt, Mozambique, Qatar, DR of Congo, Morocco and Iran are expected to witness double-digit growth (CAGR) during the period 2009-2015. Figure 33: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base — Africa and Middle East (In Percent, End 2009 – End 2015F) CAGR (In Percent) 25% 21.3% 20% 16.1% 15.4% 13.1% 15% 13.1% 12.9% 11.5% 11.0% 10.9% 10.3% 10% 5% 0% Sudan Nigeria Uganda Lesotho Egypt Mozambique Qatar DR of Congo Morocco Iran Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 93
  • 94. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 133: Top 20 Operators by Mobile Subscriber Base — Africa and Middle East (In Million, Q2 2010) Operator Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Monthly ARPU (In USD) Churn (In Percent) MTN Nigeria 35.1 11.0 NA TCI Iran 34.0 NA NA MTN Irancell 27.0 8.0 NA MobiNil Egypt 26.1 5.8 2.8 Vodafone Egypt 25.8 6.6 NA Vodacom South Africa 23.2 19.2 5.9 STC Saudi Arabia 21.3 NA NA Globacom Nigeria 18.6 NA NA Mobily Saudi Arabia 18.5 NA NA MTN South Africa 17.1 19.8 NA Safaricom Kenya 16.2 6.0 2.3 Maroc Telecom Morocco 15.9 11.3 2.3 Zain Nigeria 15.2 7.0 NA Djezzy (Orascom) Algeria 15.1 9.5 2.1 Zain Iraq 11.7 11.0 NA Mobilis Algeria 10.5 NA NA Meditel Morocco 10.4 NA NA Zain Sudan 9.2 10.0 NA MTN Ghana 8.7 7.0 NA Nedjma Algeria 8.0 5.9 NA  The subscribers using 3G and above networks comprised 9.0 percent at end-2009; this is forecast to reach 49.3 percent by end-2015 indicating a CAGR of 46.6 percent.  The subscribers using 3G and above technologies as a percentage of total subscribers for Africa and the Middle East is expected to reach approximately 15.2 percent by end-2010. 94 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 95. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 81 Figure 34: Technology Forecast — Africa and Middle East (In Million, End 2009 – End 2015F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 1400 552.3 1200 309.2 1000 800 604.6 428.2 204.7 119.5 60.9 600 400 617.1 665.9 684.4 679.6 647.9 603.4 622.9 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 200 0 Year 3G and above 2G and others Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Algeria Table 134: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Algeria (End 2009 – End 2015F) Algeria Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 31.6 34.8 37.3 39.5 41.3 42.7 43.9 Penetration (In Percent) 91.9 100.0 106.1 110.9 114.6 117.3 119.3 Table 135: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Algeria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Djezzy 14.6 14.8 15.1 45.0 www.djezzygsm.com Mobilis 9.0 10.3 10.5 31.2 www.mobilis.dz Nedjma 8.0 8.3 8.0 23.8 www.nedjma.dz Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website 81 Note: The sum of 2G and others, and 3G and above subscribers may not add up to the region’s subscriber base due to rounding-off errors. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 95
  • 96. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Angola Table 136: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Angola (End 2009 – End 2015F) Angola Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 8.7 10.5 11.5 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.3 Penetration (In Percent) 67.3 79.2 85.5 89.2 90.9 91.4 91.0 Table 137: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Angola (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Unitel 5.7 6.1 6.2 64.9 www.unitel.co.ao Movicel 3.0 3.2 3.35 35.1 www.movicel.net Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Bahrain Table 138: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Bahrain (End 2009 – End 2015F) Bahrain Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 Penetration (In Percent) 202.1 228.9 240.4 248.9 254.9 258.9 261.4 82 Table 139: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Bahrain (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Batelco 0.8 0.9 0.9 53.5 www.batelco.com.bh Zain 0.7 0.6 0.6 37.2 www.bh.zain.com Viva 0.0 0.1 0.2 9.2 www.viva.com.bh MNO 82 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: The market share may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding-off errors. 96 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 97. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 DR of Congo 83 Table 140: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — DR of Congo (End 2009 – End 2015F) DR of Congo Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 8.7 10.9 12.3 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.2 Penetration (In Percent) 12.5 15.1 16.5 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.3 Table 141: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — DR of Congo (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Celtel (Zain) 3.6 3.7 3.9 41.8 www.cd.zain.com Vodacom 3.5 3.4 3.4 37.1 www.vodacom.cd Tigo (MIC) 1.5 1.6 1.8 19.8 www.tigo.cd Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Egypt Table 142: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Egypt (End 2009 – End 2015F) Egypt Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 58.1 65.3 76.6 88.1 99.5 110.7 121.4 Penetration (In Percent) 83 2009 72.9 80.3 92.5 104.3 115.6 126.3 136.1 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few MNOs (with lower market share) operational in the market. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 97
  • 98. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 143: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Egypt (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) MobiNil 25.4 26.1 26.1 42.1 www.mobinil.com Vodafone 23.3 24.7 25.8 41.6 www.vodafone.com.eg Etisalat Misr (Nile Telecom) 9.4 10.0 10.1 16.3 www.etisalat.com.eg Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website MobiNil Egypt Headquarters: Cairo, Egypt Launch of 3G services: September 2008 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 26.1 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): 0.1 ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 5.8 Recent Developments: In July 2010, MobiNil acquired two local internet subsidiaries of Orascom Telecom – LINKdotNET (Egypt) and Link Egypt – for USD 130 million. Ghana 84 Table 144: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Ghana (End 2009 – End 2015F) Ghana Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 15.4 17.5 19.9 22.0 23.8 25.4 26.6 Penetration (In Percent) 84 2009 63.7 71.4 79.7 86.5 92.0 96.3 99.4 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 98 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 99. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 145: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Ghana (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) MTN 8.0 8.4 8.7 53.0 www.mtn.com.gh Tigo 3.1 3.1 3.4 20.7 www.tigo.com.gh Vodafone 2.7 2.8 2.7 16.7 www.vodafone.com.gh Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Iran 85 Table 146: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Iran (End 2009 – End 2015F) Iran Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 86 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 58.2 64.1 73.7 82.7 90.8 98.1 104.5 Penetration (In Percent) 76.1 82.8 94.0 104.2 113.0 120.6 126.9 Table 147: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Iran (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) TCI 33.2 33.8 34.0 54.2 www.irantelecom.ir MTN 23.3 25.4 27.0 43.0 www.irancell.ir MNO 85 86 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. Note: With reference to our previous report 'Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014', Iran did not show the expected growth in subscriber base in 2009. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 99
  • 100. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Iraq 87 Table 148: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Iraq (End 2009 – End 2015F) Iraq Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 20.6 23.0 25.6 27.9 29.9 31.6 33.1 Penetration (In Percent) 70.2 76.6 83.2 88.6 92.8 96.0 98.2 Table 149: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Iraq (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Zain 10.3 10.6 11.7 51.6 www.iq.zain.com Asiacell 7.4 7.7 7.9 35.0 www.asiacell.com Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Israel Table 150: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Israel (End 2009 – End 2015F) Israel Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 9.6 9.9 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 Penetration (In Percent) 131.6 133.0 133.7 133.8 133.6 133.1 132.3 Table 151: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Israel (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Cellcom 3.3 3.3 3.3 34.4 www.cellcom.co.il Partner Communications 3.0 3.1 3.1 31.8 www.orange.co.il Pelephone 2.8 2.8 2.8 28.9 www.pelephone.co.il MIRS 0.5 0.5 0.5 MNO 87 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 4.9 Website www.mirs.co.il Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few MNOs (with lower market share) operational in the market. 100 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 101. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Jordan 88 Table 152: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Jordan (End 2009 – End 2015F) Jordan Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 6.1 6.8 7.4 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.2 Penetration (In Percent) 96.5 104.6 113.0 121.7 129.2 134.5 138.2 Table 153: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Jordan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Zain 2.5 2.5 2.6 39.7 www.jo.zain.com Orange 1.9 2.0 2.1 32.6 www.orange.jo Umniah 1.6 1.7 1.7 26.4 www.umniah.com Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Kenya 89 Table 154: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Kenya (End 2009 – End 2015F) Kenya Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 18.9 21.2 24.0 26.6 29.0 31.2 33.2 Penetration (In Percent) 47.9 52.4 57.8 62.6 66.8 70.4 73.5 Table 155: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Kenya (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Safaricom 15.1 15.8 16.2 80.9 www.safaricom.co.ke Zain 2.1 2.0 1.9 9.4 www.ke.zain.com MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website 88, 89 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few MNOs (with lower market share) operational in the market. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 101
  • 102. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Kuwait 90 Table 156: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Kuwait (End 2009 – End 2015F) Kuwait Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.3 Penetration (In Percent) 139.3 151.1 163.0 172.6 179.8 185.1 188.7 Table 157: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Kuwait (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Zain 1.8 1.9 1.9 45.7 www.kw.zain.com Wataniya (Qtel) 1.5 1.6 1.7 40.4 www.wataniya.com Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Lesotho 91 Table 158: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Lesotho (End 2009 – End 2015F) Lesotho Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 Penetration (In Percent) 40.9 48.9 57.3 65.1 72.2 78.6 84.2 Table 159: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Lesotho (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Vodacom 0.6 0.7 0.7 82.3 www.vodacom.co.ls Econet 0.1 0.2 0.2 17.7 www.telecom.co.ls MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website 90, 91 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few MNOs (with lower market share) operational in the market. 102 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 103. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Morocco 92 Table 160: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Morocco (End 2009 – End 2015F) Morocco Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 25.3 29.9 33.8 37.4 40.9 44.2 47.2 Penetration (In Percent) 80.5 94.1 105.0 115.3 124.7 133.3 140.9 Table 161: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Morocco (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Maroc Telecom 15.3 15.6 15.9 57.0 Meditel 9.4 10.2 10.4 37.3 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website www.maroctelecom.com www.meditel.ma Mozambique Table 162: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Mozambique (End 2009 – End 2015F) Mozambique Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 6.0 7.0 8.3 9.5 10.6 11.6 12.4 Penetration (In Percent) 27.3 31.6 36.8 41.4 45.2 48.3 50.7 Table 163: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Mozambique (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) mCel 3.7 3.7 4.0 62.4 www.mcel.co.mz Vodacom 2.3 2.3 2.4 37.6 www.vm.co.mz MNO 92 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 103
  • 104. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Nigeria 93 Table 164: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Nigeria (End 2009 – End 2015F) 94 Nigeria Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 72.0 89.3 106.5 124.1 141.8 159.1 176.0 Penetration (In Percent) 47.8 58.1 68.0 77.7 87.1 96.0 104.3 Table 165: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Nigeria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) MTN 30.8 33.3 35.1 43.5 www.mtnonline.com Globacom 17.0 18.1 18.6 23.1 www.gloworld.com Zain 14.8 15.1 15.2 18.8 www.ng.zain.com MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website MTN Nigeria Headquarters: Lagos, Nigeria Launch of 3G services: February 2008 Subscriber Base (In Million, Q2 2010): 35.1 Q-o-Q Subscriber Base Growth (In Percent, Q2 2010): 5.3 ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010): 11.0 Recent Developments: In June 2010, MTN Nigeria secured a loan of USD 2.08 billion from a consortium of 17 banks, to expand its network infrastructure across the country. 93 94 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. Note: The Nigerian market recorded exponential growth in mobile subscribers in the first half of 2010. Also, with the low penetration, operators are investing to widen their reach to rural markets. Thus, high growth is expected in the market over the next five years. 104 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 105. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Oman Table 166: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Oman (End 2009 – End 2015F) Oman Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.2 Penetration (In Percent) 126.9 144.8 158.3 168.9 176.9 182.6 186.3 Table 167: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Oman (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Omantel 1.9 2.0 2.1 51.4 www.omantel.net.om Nawras (Qtel) 1.9 1.9 2.0 48.6 www.nawras.com.om Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Qatar 95 Table 168: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Qatar (End 2009 – End 2015F) Qatar Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.4 4.8 Penetration (In Percent) 169.2 186.6 215.2 242.3 267.4 290.0 310.3 Table 169: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Qatar (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Qtel 2.1 2.1 2.2 80.1 www.qtel.com.qa Vodafone 0.4 0.5 0.5 19.9 www.vodafone.com.qa MNO 95 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: Mobile penetration is expected to exceed 300 percent in 2015. Some of the major factors contributing to this massive penetration rate are large infrastructure investments being undertaken by operators to achieve wider network coverage, along with a higher per capita income and standard of living in the country. Also, the continuous inflow of foreign workers contributes to the high penetration, as these foreign workers are not counted in the country's population but are counted in the mobile subscriber base. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 105
  • 106. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Saudi Arabia 96 Table 170: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Saudi Arabia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Saudi Arabia Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 44.6 49.1 54.5 59.1 63.0 66.2 68.9 Penetration (In Percent) 174.8 189.3 206.8 221.0 232.0 240.4 246.4 Table 171: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Saudi Arabia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) STC 21.0 21.0 21.3 45.4 www.stc.com.sa Mobily 18.2 18.0 18.5 39.5 www.mobily.com.sa Zain 5.2 5.6 6.9 14.7 www.sa.zain.com Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website South Africa Table 172: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — South Africa (End 2009 – End 2015F) South Africa Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 97 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 97 53.7 55.9 57.8 59.3 60.5 61.5 Penetration (In Percent) 96 49.8 101.4 109.6 114.4 118.6 122.2 125.1 127.2 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few MNOs (with lower market share) operational in the market. Note: With reference to our previous report 'Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014', South Africa did not show the expected growth in mobile subscriber base in 2009. This is primarily due to strict regulatory rule that required all users to register their personal details, in turn restricting subscriber growth. 106 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 107. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 173: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — South Africa (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Vodacom 27.1 26.3 23.2 49.0 www.vodacom.co.za MTN 16.1 16.4 17.1 36.2 www.mtn.co.za Cell C 6.6 6.9 7.0 14.8 www.cellc.co.za Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Sudan Table 174: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Sudan (End 2009 – End 2015F) Sudan Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 16.5 22.8 29.3 35.7 41.8 47.5 52.5 Penetration (In Percent) 38.0 51.3 64.1 76.3 87.2 96.5 104.2 98 Table 175: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Sudan (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Zain 8.5 8.8 9.2 53.8 www.sd.zain.com Sudatel 4.2 4.5 4.6 26.9 www.sudatel.sd MTN 3.8 4.0 3.3 19.4 www.mtn.sd MNO 98 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: The sum of the market share of the MNOs is greater than 100 percent due to rounding-off errors. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 107
  • 108. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Syria 99 Table 176: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Syria (End 2009 – End 2015F) Syria Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 100 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 9.3 10.2 11.3 12.3 13.2 14.0 14.6 Penetration (In Percent) 42.1 45.4 50.2 54.7 58.6 61.4 63.4 Table 177: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Syria (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) SyriaTel 5.0 5.3 5.3 54.5 MTN 4.2 4.3 4.4 45.5 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website www.syriatel.com www.spacetelsyria.com Tanzania 101 Table 178: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Tanzania (End 2009 – End 2015F) Tanzania Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 17.3 20.2 22.8 24.9 26.6 27.8 28.8 Penetration (In Percent) 41.6 47.6 52.9 56.7 59.2 60.9 61.8 Table 179: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Tanzania (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Vodacom 6.9 7.3 8.0 43.1 www.vodacom.co.tz Zain 4.9 4.7 4.6 24.7 www.tz.zain.com Tigo 4.0 4.1 4.4 23.6 www.tigo.co.tz MNO Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website 99 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market due to rounding-off errors. 100 Note: With reference to our previous report 'Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014', Syria surpassed our expectation of mobile subscriber base growth by 2.2 million in 2009. The launch of 3G network is one of the primary reasons for this growth. Consequently, our forecasts for the coming years have also been appropriately upgraded. 101 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 108 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 109. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Tunisia 102 Table 180: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Tunisia (End 2009 – End 2015F) Tunisia Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 103 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 10.4 11.8 13.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 16.2 Penetration (In Percent) 99.1 111.2 121.3 129.6 136.3 141.5 145.5 Table 181: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Tunisia (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Tunisiana 5.2 5.4 5.6 48.7 www.tunisiana.com Tunicell 5.2 5.4 5.6 48.7 www.tunisietelecom.tn Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website The UAE 104 Table 182: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — The UAE (End 2009 – End 2015F) The UAE Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 11.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.4 Penetration (In Percent) 229.5 240.1 250.2 256.8 260.7 262.4 262.4 102 Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets 103 Note: With reference to our previous report 'Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2009-2014', Tunisia surpassed our expectation of mobile subscriber base growth by 1.1 million in 2009. With an entry of a third mobile operator, 'France Telecomowned Orange', the second half of 2009 witnessed a decline in mobile tariffs, which in turn led to an increase in subscriber base. Consequently, our forecasts for the coming years have also been appropriately upgraded. 104 Note: Some of the major factors contributing to the massive penetration rate in the UAE are large infrastructure investments being undertaken by operators to achieve wider network coverage, along with the introduction of innovative plans and services on regular basis that bind users to own more than one SIM card. Also, the continuous inflow of foreign workers contributes to the high penetration as these foreign workers are not counted in the country's population but are counted in the mobile subscriber base. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 109
  • 110. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Table 183: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — The UAE (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) Etisalat 7.7 7.7 7.8 66.5 www.etisalat.ae du 3.5 3.7 3.9 33.5 www.du.ae Mobile Subscribers (In Million) MNO Website Uganda 105 Table 184: Mobile Subscribers and Penetration — Uganda (End 2009 – End 2015F) Uganda Mobile Subscribers and Penetration 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Subscribers (In Million) 11.9 14.4 17.4 20.3 23.1 25.7 28.1 Penetration (In Percent) 36.1 42.4 49.3 55.6 61.0 65.5 69.1 Table 185: Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers — Uganda (In Million, End 2009 – Q2 2010) 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 Market Share (In Percent) MTN 5.2 5.6 5.9 46.4 www.mtn.co.ug Zain 2.3 2.4 2.4 18.8 www.ug.zain.com Warid 1.9 2.0 2.0 15.7 www.waridtel.co.ug MNO 105 Mobile Subscribers (In Million) Website Note: Subscriber figures given in the table ‘Key MNOs’ Mobile Subscribers’ may not add-up to the total subscribers in the market, as we have not covered a few of the smaller players in some markets. 110 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 111. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chapter 3 Mobile Handset Market © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 111
  • 112. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Handset Market Overview The worldwide handset market continued to show signs of improvement in 2010, after the declining trend reported in 2009. Handset shipment growth is primarily driven by mobile subscriber growth, largely in emerging markets, followed by the wide availability of low-end handsets and affordable smartphones. The figure below shows the mobile handset shipment scenario for 2009-2015. Figure 35: Mobile Handset Shipments Worldwide (In Million, 2009– 2015F) Mobile Handset Shipments (In Million) 1,800 1,600.3 1,752.4 1,687.5 1,481.7 1,307.9 1,400 1,375.4 1,165.6 1,000 600 200 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments – Worldwide Share of Smartphone Shipments (In Percent) Figure 36: Smartphone Shipments as a Percentage of Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2015F) 45% 39.7% 40% 36.1% 32.8% 35% 29.5% 30% 25.4% 21.6% 25% 20% 14.7% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 112 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 113. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Handset shipments for major handset vendors over Q1 2008-Q2 2010 are given in the table below. Table 186: Mobile Handset Shipments — Leading Vendors (In Million, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Mobile Handset Shipments (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Handset Vendor Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Nokia 115.5 122.0 117.8 113.1 93.2 103.2 108.5 126.9 107.8 111.1 Samsung 46.3 45.7 51.8 52.6 45.9 52.3 60.2 68.8 64.3 63.8 LG 24.4 27.7 23.0 25.7 22.6 29.8 31.6 33.9 27.1 30.6 Motorola 27.4 28.1 25.4 19.2 14.7 14.8 13.6 12.0 8.1 8.3 Sony-Ericsson 22.3 24.4 25.7 24.2 14.5 13.8 14.1 14.6 10.5 11.0 RIM 4.4 5.4 6.1 6.7 7.8 7.8 8.5 10.7 10.6 11.2 Apple 1.7 0.7 6.9 4.4 3.8 5.2 7.4 8.7 8.8 8.4 Key Observations for Q2 2010: • Handset shipments witnessed a quarterly growth of 7.7 percent from 294.9 million in Q1 2010 to 317.5 million in Q2 2010. The majority of this growth is driven by smaller handset vendors, rather than the traditional leading vendors. • Nokia still remains the leader in the handset shipment market with the largest shipments during the quarter, followed by Samsung and LG. • Despite higher handset shipments in the quarter, all major handset vendors, except LG, witnessed a decrease in their market shares during Q2 2010 as compared with that in Q1 2010. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 113
  • 114. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 The chart below depicts the market share of major handset vendors during Q2 2010. 106 Figure 37: Market Share — Handset Vendors (Q2 2010) 9.6% 20.1% 3.5% 3.5% 2.6% 2.6% 23.0% 35.0% Nokia Samsung LG Sony-Ericsson RIM Motorola Apple Others Source: Portio Research Ltd. Major Handset Vendors This section contains profiles of seven major handset vendors as follows: • Nokia • Samsung • Sony Ericsson • LG • Motorola • Apple • RIM 106 Note: The total may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding-off errors. 114 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 115. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Nokia Headquarters: Keilalahdentie 2-4, P.O. Box 226, FIN-00045, Nokia Group, Finland Phone: +358 7180 08000 Fax: +358 7 1803 8503 Website: www.nokia.com Table 187: Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Nokia (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Nokia Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Shipments (In Million) 115.5 122.0 117.8 113.1 93.2 103.2 108.5 126.9 107.8 111.1 Market Share (In Percent) 39.2 40.3 38.0 37.1 36.6 38.5 35.6 37.6 36.6 35.0 Figure 38: Market Share — Nokia (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) 45 Market Share (In Percent) 40 39.2 40.3 38.0 37.1 38.5 36.6 37.6 35.6 36.6 35.0 35 30 25 20 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Quarter Source: Portio Research Ltd. • Nokia’s quarterly handset shipments in Q2 2010 have increased by 7.7 percent year-on-year, as compared to Q2 2009. However, the handsets shipments peaked during Q4 2009 to 126.9 million. • Handset shipments in Q2 2010 increased by 3.0 percent as compared with that in Q1 2010. • The market share of Nokia followed a cyclical pattern over 2009, but it has been losing share over Q4 2009-Q2 2010. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 115
  • 116. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Nokia – Popular Handsets during Q2 2010 Nokia E73 Symbian OS 9.3, Series 60 v3.2 UI Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE, HSDPA Camera Primary: 5 Mega Pixels; Secondary: VGA Form Factor and Display Monoblock with full keyboard, 2.4 Inches (320 x 240 pixels) display Keyboard QWERTY Memory Internal: 250 MB External: 4 GB (extendable up to 16GB) Local Connectivity Wi-Fi; Bluetooth GPS A-GPS support Features Details Operating System Symbian Series 40 Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE Camera 2 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Monoblock, 2.4 Inches (320*240 Pixels) display Keyboard QWERTY Memory Internal: 55 MB, External: Up to 8GB Local Connectivity Wi-Fi, Bluetooth GPS 116 Details Operating System Nokia C3 Features Not available © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 117. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Samsung Headquarters: 416, Metan 3-Dong Yeongtong-Gu Soowon-Si, Gyeonggi-Do, 443-742, South Korea Phone: +82 31 2001114 Fax: +82 31 2007538 Website: www.samsung.com Table 188: Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Samsung (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Samsung Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Shipments (In Million) 46.3 45.7 51.8 52.6 45.9 52.3 60.2 68.8 64.3 63.8 Market Share (In Percent) 15.7 15.1 16.7 17.2 18.0 19.5 19.7 20.4 21.8 20.1 • Samsung’s quarterly handset shipments in Q2 2010 have increased by 22 percent year-on-year, as compared with that in Q2 2009. • Samsung has been able to consistently grow market share from Q2 2008 to Q1 2010, reaching 21.8 percent in Q1 2010 and then slightly dropping to 20.1 percent in Q2 2010. Figure 39: Market Share — Samsung (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) 25 20 15.1 Q1 2008 Market Share (In Percent) 15.7 Q2 2008 16.7 17.2 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 18.0 19.5 19.7 20.4 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 21.8 20.1 15 10 5 0 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Quarter Source: Portio Research Ltd. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 117
  • 118. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Samsung – Popular Handsets during Q2 2010 Samsung GalaxyS Android v2.1 Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE, HSDPA Camera Primary: 5 Mega Pixels; Secondary: VGA Form Factor and Display Full Touch Bar, 4 Inches (480 x 800 Pixels) display Keyboard Touchscreen Memory Internal: 16 GB Storage, 512 MB RAM External: 2 GB (Extendable till 32 GB) Local Connectivity Wi-Fi, Bluetooth GPS A-GPS support Features Details Operating System Samsung Bada Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE, HSDPA Camera Primary: 5 Mega Pixels; Secondary: VGA Form Factor Full Touchbar, 3.3 Inches (480x800 Pixels) display Keyboard Touchscreen Memory Internal: 1.5 GB, External: Up to 32 GB Local Connectivity Wi-Fi, Bluetooth GPS 118 Details Operating System Samsung S8500 Wave Features A-GPS support © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 119. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 LG Headquarters: 20 Yeouido-Dong Yeongdeungpo-Gu Seoul, 150-875, South Korea Phone: +82 2 37771114 Fax: +82 2 37775304 Website: www.lge.co.kr Table 189: Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — LG (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) LG Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Shipments (In Million) 24.4 27.7 23.0 25.7 22.6 29.8 31.6 33.9 27.1 30.6 Market Share (In Percent) 8.3 9.1 7.4 8.4 8.9 11.1 10.4 10.0 9.2 9.6 • LG’s quarterly handset shipments in Q2 2010 have increased by 2.7 percent year-on-year, as compared with that in Q2 2009. • LG’s market share increased from 9.2 percent in Q1 2010 to 9.6 percent in Q2 2010. Figure 40: Market Share — LG (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) 11.1 12 9.1 8.4 Market Share (In Percent) 8.3 10.4 10.0 9.2 8.9 9.6 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 7.4 8 4 0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Quarter Source: Portio Research Ltd. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 119
  • 120. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 LG – Popular Handsets during Q2 2010 LG Ally Android v2.1 Technology CDMA Camera Primary: 3.2 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Slide-out, 3.2 Inches (800*480 Pixels) display Keyboard Touchscreen, QWERTY Keyboard Memory Internal: 512 MB, External: 4 GB Local Connectivity Wi-Fi, Bluetooth GPS A-GPS support Features Details Operating System Android v2.1 Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE Camera 5 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Slide-out, 3.5 Inches (480 x 800 Pixels) display Keyboard Touchscreen, QWERTY keyboard Memory Internal: 3 GB, External: Up to 32 GB Local Connectivity Bluetooth GPS 120 Details Operating System LG Optimus Q Features A-GPS support © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 121. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Sony Ericsson Headquarters: Sony Ericsson House, 202 Hammersmith Road, London, W6 7DN, United Kingdom Phone: + 44 208 762 5800 Fax: + 44 208 762 5887 Website: www.sonyericsson.com Table 190: Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Sony Ericsson (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Sony Ericsson Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Shipments (In Million) 22.3 24.4 25.7 24.2 14.5 13.8 14.1 14.6 10.5 11.0 Market Share (In Percent) 7.6 8.1 8.3 7.9 5.7 5.1 4.6 4.3 3.6 3.5 • Sony Ericsson’s handset shipments in Q2 2010 declined by 20.3 percent as compared to the same quarter in 2009. • Sony Ericsson’s market share has consistently decreased, from 8.3 percent in Q3 2008 to 3.5 percent in Q2 2010. Figure 41: Market Share — Sony Ericsson (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) 10 Market Share (In Percent) 8 7.6 8.1 8.3 7.9 5.7 6 5.1 4.6 4.3 3.6 4 3.5 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 2 0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Quarter Source: Portio Research Ltd. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 121
  • 122. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Sony Ericsson – Popular Handsets during Q2 2010 Sony Ericsson Xperia X10 Android v1.6 Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE, UMTS and HSDPA Camera 8 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Touchbar, 4 Inches (480x854 Pixels) display Keyboard Touchscreen Memory Internal: 1 GB storage, 384 MB RAM External: Up to 32 GB Local Connectivity Wi-Fi, Bluetooth GPS A-GPS support Features Details Operating System Symbian Series 60, 5 Edition Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE, HSDPA Camera Primary: 5 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Slider, 3.2 Inches (360 x 640 Pixels) display Keyboard Touchscreen, QWERTY Memory Internal: 75 MB External: Up to 16 GB Local Connectivity Wi-Fi, Bluetooth GPS 122 Details Operating System Sony Ericsson Vivaz Pro Features A-GPS support, WisePilot Navigation th © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 123. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Motorola Headquarters: 1303 East Algonquin Road, Schaumburg, Illinois 60196 USA Phone: +1 847 576 5000 Website: www.motorola.com Table 191: Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Motorola (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Motorola Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Shipments (In Million) 27.4 28.1 25.4 19.2 14.7 14.8 13.6 12.0 8.1 8.3 Market Share (In Percent) 9.3 9.3 8.2 6.3 5.8 5.5 4.5 3.6 2.7 2.6 • Motorola’s handset shipments declined by 43.9 percent in Q2 2010 over that in Q2 2009. • Motorola has consistently lost its market share from 9.3 percent in Q2 2008 to 2.6 percent in Q2 2010. Figure 42: Market Share — Motorola (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) 10 9.3 9.3 Market Share (In Percent) 8.2 6.3 5.8 5.5 4.5 5 3.6 2.7 2.6 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Quarter Source: Portio Research Ltd. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 123
  • 124. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Motorola – Popular Handsets during Q2 2010 Motorola Droid X Android v2.1 Technology CDMA Camera 8.0 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Touchbar, 4.3 Inches (480 x 854 Pixels) display Keyboard Touchscreen Memory Internal: 6.5 GB External: Up to 32 GB Local Connectivity Bluetooth, Wi-Fi GPS A-GPS support Features Details Operating System Android v2.1 Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE, HSDPA Camera 3.15 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Slider, TFT (320*240 Pixels) display Keyboard QWERTY Memory Internal: 150 MB Storage, 512 MB RAM External: Up to 32 GB Local Connectivity Bluetooth, Wi-Fi GPS 124 Details Operating System Motorola Flipout Features A-GPS support © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 125. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Apple Headquarters: 1 Infinite Loop, Cupertino, CA 95014, USA Phone: +1 408 996 1010 Website: www.apple.com Table 192: Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — Apple (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Apple Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Shipments (In Million) 1.7 0.7 6.9 4.4 3.8 5.2 7.4 8.7 8.8 8.4 Market Share (In Percent) 0.6 0.2 2.2 1.4 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.6 • Apple’s handset shipments in Q2 2010 increased by 3.2 million as compared to the same quarter in 2009, a year-on-year growth of 61.5 percent. • In Q2 2010, Apple had a market share of 2.6 percent, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from in its market share of 3.0 percent in Q1 2010. Figure 43: Market Share — Apple (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) 4 Market Share (In Percent) 3.0 3 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.6 1.9 2 1 1.4 1.5 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 0.6 0.2 0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Quarter Source: Portio Research Ltd. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 125
  • 126. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Apple – Popular Handsets during Q2 2010 iPhone 4 Details Operating System iOS 4 Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE, HSDPA Camera 5.0 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Touchbar, 3.5 Inches (640 x 960 Pixels) display Keyboard Touchscreen Memory Internal: 16/32 GB Local Connectivity Bluetooth, Wi-Fi GPS 126 Features A-GPS support © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 127. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 RIM Headquarters: 295 Phillip Street, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3W8, Canada Phone: +1 519 888 7465 Fax: +1 519 888 7884 Website: www.rim.com Table 193: Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share — RIM (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) Mobile Handset Shipments and Market Share (Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) RIM Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Shipments (In Million) 4.4 5.4 6.1 6.7 7.8 7.8 8.5 10.7 10.6 11.2 Market Share (In Percent) 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.5 • RIM’s handset shipments in Q2 2010 showed a year-on-year growth of around 44 percent. • RIM’s market share was 3.1 percent in Q1 2009; it peaked to 3.6 percent in Q1 2010 and has now declined slightly to 3.5 percent in Q2 2010. Figure 44: Market Share — RIM (In Percent, Q1 2008 – Q2 2010) 4 3.6 Market Share (In Percent) 3.1 2.9 2 2.0 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 2.8 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 3 1.8 3.5 3.2 2.2 1.5 1 0 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q4 2009 Quarter Source: Portio Research Ltd. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 127
  • 128. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 RIM – Popular Handsets during Q2 2010 Blackberry Bold 9650 Blackberry OS Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE, UMTS Camera 3.2 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Candybar, 4.43 Inches (480 x 360 Pixels) display Keyboard Qwerty Keyboard, Optical Trackpad Memory Internal: 512 MB External: 2 GB Local Connectivity Bluetooth, Wi-Fi GPS A-GPS support, Blackberry maps Features Details Operating System Blackberry OS Technology GSM, GPRS, EDGE, HSDPA, UMTS Camera 3.2 Mega Pixels Form Factor and Display Candybar, 4.25 inches (360*400 Pixels) display Keyboard QWERTY Memory Internal:256 MB External: Up to 32 GB Local Connectivity Bluetooth, Wi-Fi GPS 128 Details Operating System Blackberry Pearl 3G Features A-GPS support, Blackberry maps © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 129. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chapter 4 Mobile Infrastructure Market © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 129
  • 130. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Infrastructure Market Overview After a tough 2009, the wireless infrastructure market is expected to rebound in 2010. Total spend on mobile infrastructure equipment is expected to be USD 54 billion in 2010. With both developed and developing economies moving towards advanced networks—3.5G and 4G including LTE and WiMAX deployments—the equipment spend is expected to increase over the coming few years. However, since the deployment cycle for 2G is approaching maturity, particularly in developed markets, equipment spend on 2G and 3G networks will start declining. Thus, in 2015, we anticipate a drop in total equipment spend as the equipment spend on 2G will primarily include network maintenance and upgrades only. 107 Figure 45: Mobile Equipment Spend — Worldwide (In USD Billion, 2008 – 2015F) Mobile Equipment Spend (In USD Billion) 80 62.2 60 52.0 54.0 63.3 64.5 57.3 50.3 40 20 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Future Outlook • • • 107 The mobile market is transitioning from 2G to 3G technologies, impacting the overall infrastructure spend on GSM and CDMA networks. The infrastructure market will witness strong growth in 3G and 3.5G networks, particularly in the developing markets as WCDMA is gaining traction. Impending LTE launches over the next few years will also drive the infrastructure market, particularly in the developed markets of Europe and North America. Note: Mobile equipment spend does not include services and solutions expenditure. According to Portio estimates, mobile equipment spend currently forms nearly two-thirds of the total mobile infrastructure spend. 130 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 131. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Major Mobile Infrastructure Vendors This section contains profiles of five mobile infrastructure vendors as follows: • Alcatel-Lucent • Ericsson • Nokia Siemens Networks • ZTE • Huawei Technologies The figure below highlights the market share of mobile infrastructure vendors at the end-June 2010. Figure 46: Market Share of Mobile Infrastructure Vendors (Q2 2010) 10.4% 7.5% 20.8% 3.2% 20.6% 33.0% 4.5% Ericsson Nokia Siemens Alcatel-Lucent ZTE Motorola Huawei Others Source: Portio Research Ltd. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 131
  • 132. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Alcatel-Lucent Company Overview Alcatel-Lucent offers end-to-end solutions in fixed, mobile and converged broadband networking, IP and optics technologies, applications and services • • • Number of Employees: 77,000 (end-August 2010) Product Portfolio: Access Solutions, Applications for Telecommunications, Convergence, Enterprise, Networks, Optics, Submarine System, Wireless Access and Transmission Business Groups: o Applications Group: Involved in developing innovative solutions for service providers and enterprises o Networks Group: Responsible for driving the Network and Product portfolio by addressing customers’ requirements o Services Group: Supports telecom service providers by providing professional services that cover the entire network life cycle of operations o Enterprise and Strategic Industries: Delivering competitive edge to enterprises by enabling them to increase customer satisfaction, employee productivity and operational efficiency Financials Key Financials for Q2 2010: • Revenues: USD 4,866 million108 • Operating Profit Margin: 0.7 per cent • Revenue Growth109 (year-on-year): (-)2.4 percent Figure 47: Revenues – Alcatel-Lucent (In USD million, Q2 2009 – Q2 2010) Revenues (In USD Million) 6,000 5,000 1,189 1,242 629 766 4,000 1,521 790 3,000 1,127 1,070 624 576 2,000 3,247 3,189 3,312 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 2,940 2,671 1,000 0 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Period Services Application Software Networks Source: Portio Research Ltd. 108 Note: The total revenue for the period is USD 4,866 million, which includes Networks (USD 2,940 million), Application Software (USD 624 million), Services (USD 1,127 million) and Others/Eliminations. This Other & Eliminations segment is not depicted in the figure above. 109 Note: The Revenue Growth (year-on-year) is the revenue growth in local currency, without any exchange rate impact. This is same for other vendor profiles as well, across following pages. 132 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 133. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Product and Service Developments (Q2 2010): • The Networks business witnessed a decline in revenues, primarily due to a revenue decrease in the wireline and optics division. This was partially offset by continued strong growth in the IP and wireless divisions, driven by the WCDMA business. • Revenues in the Applications business increased with a revenue increase in network applications and enterprise applications. Figure 48: Revenue Break-out by Geography – Alcatel-Lucent (Q2 2010) 39.0% 17.0% 13.0% 31.0% Europe North America Asia Pacific Rest of World Source: Portio Research Ltd. Revenue Developments (Q2 2010): • The North American market reported an increase in revenues in the quarter. • Europe witnessed a decline in sales, followed by that in the Rest of the World region. • Asia Pacific also witnessed a decline in sales due to low activity levels in China; however this was party offset by high growth in India. Other Highlights • • Innovation in Optical Networking: In Q2 2010, Alcatel-Lucent announced the first commercially available solution to carry a single carrier 100 gigabit per second (100G) signal through the innovative use of the emerging ‘Next-Generation Coherent’ technology. o With this announcement Alcatel-Lucent is moving into the commercial deployment of 100G next generation coherent technology. Acquisition of ProgrammableWeb: In Q2 2010, the company acquired ProgrammableWeb, an online source for Web APIs (application programming interfaces) used by application developers to build Web, mobile, and other connected applications, to serve consumers and enterprise customers. Future Outlook • • For full year 2010, Alcatel-Lucent anticipates a nominal growth (of up to 5 percent) in the telecommunications equipment and related services market. The company expects to attain 1–5 percent operating margin over 2010. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 133
  • 134. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Ericsson Company Overview Ericsson is one of the leading providers of telecommunications equipment and related services to mobile and fixed network operators worldwide. Ericsson is the worldwide market leader in the mobile infrastructure market. • Number of Employees: 87,400 (end-June 2010) • Product Portfolio: Cables and Interconnect products, Core Networks, IP Networking, Microwave Networks, Mobile Broadband Modules, Multimedia Applications, Revenue Management Products • Business Groups: o Networks: Involved in launching high-performing, cost-efficient network systems for communication through mobile and the Internet o Multimedia: Delivering communication solutions such as Networking and collaboration services o Global services: Combining local capabilities with global expertise to respond to customers’ needs Financials Key Financials for Q2 2010: • Revenues: USD 6,355 million • Operating Profit Margin: 11 percent • Revenue Growth (year-on-year): (-)8 per cent Figure 49: Revenues – Ericsson (In USD million, Q2 2009 – Q2 2010) Revenues (In USD Million) 9,000 486 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 421 467 320 318 2,520 3,299 2,661 1,781 2,556 4,000 3,000 3,376 4,541 4,394 3,366 Q2 2009 2,000 Q3 2009 3,439 1,000 0 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Period Multimedia Global Services Networks Source: Portio Research Ltd. Product and Service Developments (Q2 2010): • The decline in Networks’ and voice-related sales was partly offset by growth in mobile broadband sales (3G). • The Global Services segment is witnessing a decline in growth rate, and this is attributed to lower network rollout activity, supply chain bottlenecks and continued component shortages. • Multimedia sales declined due to the weak demand for revenue management solutions in certain geographies. 134 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 135. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 110 Figure 50: Revenue Break-out by Geography – Ericsson (Q2 2010) 27.2% 8.8% 25.6% 29.2% 9.2% Western and Central Europe Asia Pacific Latin America North America Rest of World Source: Portio Research Ltd. Revenue Developments (Q2 2010): • Americas o Strong growth in mobile data is pushing operators to invest in network capacity for mobile broadband networks. • Europe o Revenues declined due to cautious operator investments and the economic slowdown. o The increasing demand for mobile broadband is pushing operators to evaluate investments in future technologies such as 4G and LTE. • APAC o Revenues from India dropped drastically (63 percent year-on-year) primarily due to the ongoing security clearance process initiated by the government and also limited network investments by operators while preparing for 3G auctions. o Network equipment sales were weak due to cautious operator investments in a large number of markets. The region witnessed network expansion in Indonesia and Bangladesh. Other Highlights • • 110 New TD-LTE Solution: Ericsson showcased the Time Division-Long Term Evolution (TD-LTE) solution that facilitates the operation of super-fast mobile broadband applications such as videoon-demand (VoD) and video streaming. This achieved a single user peak rate of 110Mbps in the downlink. Partnering with Covage: Covage has selected Ericsson for its FTTH infrastructure roll-out, where Ericsson will provide Covage with active and passive equipment for its fiber-optic networks. Note: Asia Pacific includes India, China, North East Asia, South East Asia and Oceania; Rest of the World includes Northern Europe, Central Asia, Mediterranean, Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and other regions. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 135
  • 136. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Future Outlook • • 136 Ericsson expects growth in the 3G infrastructure business, primarily driven by 3G launch in India following spectrum allocation. The LTE access infrastructure market will witness high activity levels since many operators are expected to replace their legacy base stations with new-generation radio access network equipment. o The company estimates that of the 5 million base stations deployed globally, 1.5 million will need to be upgraded in the coming few years, primarily in Europe. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 137. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Nokia Siemens Networks Company Overview Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) is one of the leading telecommunications equipment vendors offering telecommunications hardware equipment, software and services. It is a joint venture between Nokia and Siemens. • Number of Employees: 64,759 (end-June 2010) • Product Portfolio: Solutions in the areas of Broadband, Business Support Systems, Network Management and OSS • Business Groups: o Solutions: Device Management, Mobile Backhaul, OSS, Charging and Billing, and Customer Support for service providers, public and corporate customers o Services: Consulting, Global Service Delivery, Applications and Systems Integration Financials Key Financials for Q2 2010: • Revenues: USD 3,878 million • Operating Profit Margin: (-) 5.9 percent • Revenue Growth (Year-on-year): (-)5.0 percent Revenues (In USD Million) Figure 51: Revenues – Nokia Siemens Networks (In USD million, Q2 2009 – Q2 2010) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 5,354 4,357 3,945 3,766 3,878 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 1,000 0 1 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Period Source: Portio Research Ltd. Product and Service Developments (Q2 2010): • Revenue decreased by 5 percent year-on-year primarily because of lower sales in India due to the ongoing security clearances restricting the completion of product sales to customers. This trend is expected to continue in the third quarter, along with a shortage of certain components affecting industry-wide sales. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 137
  • 138. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 52: Revenue Break-out by Geography – Nokia Siemens Networks (Q2 2010) 31.3% 13.2% 6.0% 37.4% Europe Middle East and Africa 12.2% Asia Pacific North America Latin America Source: Portio Research Ltd. Revenue Developments (Q2 2010): • Europe and APAC accounted for the largest contribution to total revenues, with 37.4 percent and 31.3 percent shares, respectively, in the quarter. Other Highlights • • Smart Device Solutions: NSN Smart Device Solutions, which allow improved battery life, better coverage and faster download speeds, were deployed on the O2 network in London. o The company signed similar contracts with various other operators including Elisa (Finland), Mosaic Telecom (the US), SFR (France), Indosat (Indonesia), Cable and Wireless Communications (the UK), Cell C (South Africa) and Qatar Telecom (Qatar). Long Term Evolution (LTE): NSN is preparing for commercial LTE deployments as follows: o LTE trials with Telstra Australia o Launch of Self Organising Networks for reducing human error and cost o Production of LTE-ready Flexi Multiradio Base Station radio frequency modules for 800 MHz spectrum suitable for rural areas Future Outlook • • 138 In 2010, NSN expects a flat market for the mobile and fixed infrastructure and related services market as compared with that in 2009. The company expects to maintain its market share in 2010, as against its previous announcement of faster growth. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 139. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 ZTE Company Overview ZTE is a telecommunications equipment and network solutions provider based in China. • Number of Employees: More than 70,000 (end-February 2010) • Product and Service Portfolio: o Wireless: UMTS/GSM, CDMA 2000, TD-SCDMA, WiMAX, LTE o Core Network: Mobile CN, Fixed CN, IMS o Bearer/Access: WDM/OTN, NG-SDH/MSTP, IP Transport, Router, Switch o Services/ Accessories: VAS, OSS/BSS, IPTV, Surveillance, ICT, Power o Terminals: Handset, Data Card, Fixed Terminals Financials Key Financials for H1 2010: • Revenues: USD 4,507 million • Operating Profit Margin: 2.2 percent • Revenue Growth (year-on-year): 10.9 per cent Figure 53: Revenues – ZTE (In USD million, 2008 – H1 2010) Revenues (In USD Million) 9,000 1,058 8,000 7,000 1,916 6,000 813 5,000 1,397 577 4,000 5,862 3,000 2,000 1,143 4,175 2,787 1,000 0 2008 2009 H1 2010 Period Services and Software Terminals* Network Source: Portio Research Ltd. Product and Service Developments (H1 2010): During H1 2010, ZTE registered a year-on-year revenue growth111 of 1.1 percent in the sale of carrier networks, 39.7 percent in terminal products and 18.0 percent in telecommunications services and software. • Wireless segment o GSM/UMTS/LTE products were deployed by leading local European carriers, including KPN, Telenor and Optimus o ZTE and Telefonica deployed the first WiMAX network in Spain. • Wireline segment o PON-based FTTx solutions were deployed on a large scale across a number of major cities in China. 111 Note: The year-on-year revenue growth figure is for revenue growth in H1 2010 over H1 2009. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 139
  • 140. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 • Terminals112 o The increase in the number of 3G subscribers in China spurred the growth of Terminal products. o Demand for ZTE’s data card products and Android smartphones increased in the European region. o Softbank Japan adopted ZTE customised handsets. 113 Figure 54: Revenue Break-out by Geography – ZTE (H1 2010) 17.1% 14.5% 50.3% 18.0% PRC Asia (excluding PRC) Africa Other Regions Source: Portio Research Ltd. Revenue Developments (H1 2010): • The domestic market continues to be the largest contributor to total revenues, and it has witnessed a growth of 3.5 percent in revenues year-on-year. o This growth is driven through network upgrades of major Chinese telecom operators to match 3G requirements. • Outside China, ZTE has partnered with operators including France Telecom, Telkom SA, Telefonica and America Movil, and these partnerships have resulted in a year-on-year revenue growth of 19.7 percent. Other Highlights • • Dual-band LTE Network: CSL Hong Kong and ZTE will deploy a commercial dual-band LTE network (1800 MHz/ 2600 MHz) that will support 2G/3G/LTE concurrently. Network Deals o ZTE has won a contract from China Telecom to supply PON equipment for high-speed Internet access to users. The contract is valued at USD 15 million (CNY 1 billion). o ZTE has entered into a contract with Smart Telecom Indonesia to supply CDMA network infrastructure equipment. Future Outlook • 112 113 ZTE intends to boost its presence in the domestic market by participating in network construction projects of leading Chinese telecom operators during the second half of the year. Note: The Terminals segment engages in the manufacture and sale of mobile phone handsets and data card products. Note: The figures may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding-off errors. 140 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 141. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Huawei Technologies Company Overview Huawei Technologies is a networking and telecom equipment supplier based in China. It specialises in R&D, production and marketing of telecom equipment and it provides customised network solutions to MNOs. • Number of Employees: 95,000 (end-December 2009) • Business Focus: o Telecom Network Infrastructure—GSM/3G/LTE, Optical access networks, Routers o Applications and Software o Professional Services o Devices Financials Key Financials for 2009: • Revenues: USD 21,854 million • Operating Profit Margin: 14.1 percent • Revenue Growth (year-on-year): 19.2 percent 114 Revenues (In USD Million) Figure 55: Revenues – Huawei (In USD million, 2008-2009) 24,000 18,000 12,000 21,854 18,329 6,000 0 2008 2009 Period Source: Portio Research Ltd. Product and Service Developments (2009): • Telecom Network Infrastructure o In 2009, UMTS and WiMAX solutions have been the primary drivers of revenue. o Optical Network sales increased by 30 percent year-on-year because of growth in traditional markets including Asia, Africa, Latin America and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). o IP Microwaves registered a 40 percent increase in sales year-on-year. o FTTx solution sales increased by more than 300 percent year-on-year. 114 Note: Huawei Technologies does not report its interim results (quarter-wise performance results or half-year results.) © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 141
  • 142. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 • • Professional Services o Throughout 2009, Huawei won over 100 Managed Services contracts from leading operators worldwide, including Jazztel (Spain), O2 (Germany), Virgin Media (UK) and Cox (US). Devices o In 2009, it shipped 35 million mobile broadband devices and 30 million mobile phones worldwide. o Revenues from TD-SCDMA (China Mobile only) mobile phones increased ten fold over the year; revenues from video conferencing products increased by 40 percent during the same period. Figure 56: Revenue Break-out by Geography – Huawei (2009) 53.5% 46.5% China Rest of World Source: Portio Research Ltd. Revenue Developments (2009): • Revenue contribution from domestic operations (China) increased significantly to 46.5 percent in 2009, up from 25 percent last year. Contribution from international operations decreased to 53.5 percent in 2009. • Applications and Software o Mobile Office solution registered strong growth in China and in European markets. o BSS Solution achieved stable growth in key regions. • Revenues from Professional Services business have achieved significant growth over the previous year, especially in China, India, Asia Pacific and Latin America. o Equipment sales in China and India have driven Customer Support and Network Technology services in these markets. Other Highlights • • • • 142 In November 2009, Huawei successfully completed a joint LTE trial with Telecom Italia and showcased a download speed of over 140 Mbps. In December 2009, Net4Mobility, the joint venture of Tele2 and Telenor in Sweden, selected Huawei to supply infrastructure and modems for 4G. In February 2010, Huawei launched an innovative mobile broadband modem–the world’s first modem compatible with LTE, UMTS and GSM. In May 2010, China Mobile, in partnership with Huawei, launched the world’s first TD-LTE/SAE trial network using Huawei’s E2E solution. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 143. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 • In July 2010, Vodafone announced its partnership with Huawei and Ericsson to upgrade all base stations in Germany to LTE. Future Outlook • Huawei expects to increase sales revenue in 2010 by 20 percent year-on-year. o The company will focus on market development opportunities in mobile and home broadband networks, fixed mobile convergence, business operation support systems and smart devices. o The company will continue to strengthen its investment in managed services. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 143
  • 144. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chapter 5 Mobile Marketing Data 144 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 145. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Marketing Data Mobile Penetration — Top 20 Mobile Markets  China continues to be the leading country with the highest mobile subscribers at end-June 2010, followed by India.  As evident in the table below, more than half of the top 20 markets belong to Asia Pacific and Africa and Middle East regions which indicate that the mobile market growth will be incited by the emerging markets.  To attract users, operators are taking proactive initiatives such as technology advancements and nationwide network expansion, along with new services such as mobile applications available for users to explore. 115 Table 194: Top 20 Markets by Mobile Subscriber Base and their Penetration — Worldwide (Q2 2010) Country Penetration (In Percent, Q2 2010) China 785.5 59.1 India 635.5 54.2 The US 298.9 96.4 Russia 215.1 154.3 Brazil 188.1 93.5 Indonesia 177.5 73.1 Vietnam 116.8 130.4 Japan 113.7 89.7 Germany 107.7 130.9 Pakistan 99.5 54.0 Italy 89.2 153.6 Mexico 86.4 76.9 The Philippines 85.1 85.2 Nigeria 80.7 53.0 The UK 80.3 128.8 Thailand 68.5 102.1 Iran 62.7 81.5 Egypt 62.0 77.0 Turkey 61.5 79.1 France 115 Mobile Subscribers (In Million, Q2 2010) 60.3 93.1 Note: All the numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 145
  • 146. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile Penetration in Youth Segment — Top 20 Mobile Markets  For more than two-thirds of the top 20 markets, youths and young adults contribute more than 50 percent to the total mobile subscriber base.  More than half of the top 20 mobile markets have over 100 percent penetration in the youth segment; five countries have over 150 percent penetration.  Operators worldwide have launched attractive tariff plans, services, content and applications for the youth segment – youth being the potential growth driver of the overall mobile market.  Handset and smartphone vendors have launched attractive handsets with enhanced features, innovative designs and in-built applications as a steady strategy to lure youth and mark their presence in the mobile space. Table 195: Youth Mobile Penetration in the Top 20 Mobile Subscribers Markets — Worldwide (In Percent, 116 Q2 2010) Country Country Youth Mobile Penetration (In Percent, Q2 2010) China 92.2 Italy 169.9 India 89.6 Mexico 90.7 The US 119.3 The Philippines 104.3 Russia 171.8 Nigeria 83.1 Brazil 118.2 The UK 165.3 Indonesia 87.0 Thailand 121.6 Vietnam 153.1 Iran 103.7 Japan 116.6 Egypt 94.9 Germany 166.9 Turkey 102.6 Pakistan 116 Youth Mobile Penetration (In Percent, Q2 2010) 73.2 France 126.6 Note: The youth segment comprises population within an age bracket of 10 to 39 years. 146 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 147. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Data ARPU — Top 20 Mobile Markets  The US generated the highest data revenues in Q2 2010, followed by Japan and China  In terms of mobile data ARPU, Japan leads the market with the highest data ARPU – owing to the advance networks, high 3G penetration, and high adoption of data services.  The advanced markets of Western Europe and North America also generate high data ARPU, in comparison to their counterparts in emerging markets.  The data ARPU in the emerging markets is predominantly driven by text messaging services.  Declining SMS prices, extensive use of SMS by enterprises and the increasing use of SMS in interactive entertainment have boosted the use of SMS in the emerging markets.  Mobile data usage continues to grow, primarily owing to increase an in 3G penetration and the rapid adoption of smartphones.  Mobile commerce, including mobile payments and P2P transfers, and social networking are witnessing an upward trend in the emerging markets. Table 196: Monthly Mobile Data ARPU in the Top 20 Mobile Subscribers Markets — Worldwide (In USD, Q2 2010) Country Monthly Mobile Data ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010) Country Monthly Mobile Data ARPU (In USD, Q2 2010) China 3.3 Italy 7.7 India 0.5 Mexico 3.1 The US 16.5 The Philippines 3.1 Russia 2.0 Nigeria 0.4 Brazil 1.3 The UK 13.3 Indonesia 1.5 Thailand 0.9 Vietnam NA Iran 1.2 Japan 26.7 Egypt NA Germany 6.2 Turkey 2.9 Pakistan 0.2 France 10.7 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 147
  • 148. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chapter 6 Key Telecom Technologies 148 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 149. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Key Telecom Technologies Technologies 2G • • The second-generation packet networks consist of combined voice and packet data networks based on global standards The 2G technologies are primarily categorised into GSM (uses Time Division Multiple Access technology) and Code Division Multiple Access-based (IS-95/CDMAOne) network technologies Figure 57: Technology Evolution – 2G CDMA GSM 2G Features: • Low-speed circuit networks • Used for voice communications Source: Portio Research Ltd. GSM • Global System for Mobile communications is a Time Division Multiplex (TDM) system • GSM is the most widely used digital mobile phone system and the mobile telephone standard in Europe; it is also the world's main 2G digital wireless standard. GSM is present in more than 160 countries and, according to the GSM Association, accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total digital cellular wireless market.117 • It is implemented on 800, 900, 1800 and 1900 MHz frequency bands cdmaOne • In a CDMA system, each voice circuit is labelled with a unique code and transmitted on a single channel simultaneously along with many other coded voice circuits • cdmaOne (or IS-95) is the 2G wireless standard for the CDMA systems and is used in the Americas and parts of Asia 2.5G/2.75G • • • 117 2.5G describes the state of wireless technology and capability usually associated with General Packet Radio Services (GPRS)—that is, between the second and third generations of wireless technology The 2.5G network technologies are the 2G-systems that have implemented a packet switched domain in addition to the circuit switched domain The second generation, or 2G-level, of wireless is usually identified as Global System for Mobile (GSM) service and the third generation, or 3G-level, is usually identified as Universal Mobile Note: All the numbers used in this report are from Portio Research sources, unless otherwise stated. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 149
  • 150. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 • • Telecommunication Service (UMTS). Each generation provides a higher data rate and additional capabilities. 2.5G protocols extend 2G systems to provide additional features such as packet-switched connection (GPRS) and enhanced data rates (HSCSD, EDGE) Some protocols, such as EDGE for GSM and CDMA2000 1x-RTT for CDMA, have a data rate of above ‘144 kbit/s’ and can qualify as 3G services. However, they are considered as 2.5G services/2.75G services as their data rates are slower than the actual 3G services Figure 58: Technology Evolution –2.5G and 2.75G CDMA GSM 2.5G/2.75G Features • Offers higher data rates than 2G technology • Enables the delivery of basic data services, such as text messaging • Enables always-on communications rather than session-based calls • Can support IP traffic Data Rates (downlink/uplink): • GPRS: 150-170Kbps/54 Kbps • EDGE: 384 Kbps/100 Kbps • CDMA2000 1x-RTT: 40-60 Kbps (bursting up to 144 Kbps) Source: Portio Research Ltd. GPRS • General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) is a packet-based standard for mobile communication, which runs at speeds up to 115 kilobits per second, compared with GSM systems' 9.6 kilobits per second • GPRS supports a wide range of bandwidths and makes efficient use of limited bandwidth. It is particularly suited for sending and receiving small bursts of data, such as e-mail and web browsing, as well as large volumes of data • Applications for GPRS may include: chat, text and visual information, still images, moving images, web browsing, document sharing/collaborative working, audio, job dispatch, corporate email, Internet e-mail, vehicle positioning, remote Local Area Network (LAN) access, file transfer or home automation CDMA2000 1xRTT • This is regarded as the first phase of CDMA2000 technology used for providing voice and data services over mobile networks • Data speeds of 307kbps are possible using a single channel, while with two channels speeds of 614kbps are attainable EDGE • Enhanced Data rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE)—also known as Enhanced GPRS (EGPRS)—is a backward-compatible digital mobile phone technology that allows improved data transmission rates • It is classified as 2.75G technology to distinguish its network speed from GPRS and 3G technologies 150 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 151. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 • EDGE is deployed as an extension on top of standard GSM. EDGE does not require hardware or software changes in GSM core networks. The deployment of EDGE technology can be done by installing EDGE compatible transceiver units and by upgrading base station subsystems 3G • • • 3G is an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) specification for the third generation of mobile communication technology 3G technologies are typically packet-switched and use Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology to communicate. Examples of 3G include 1xRTT, HDR and W-CDMA Third generation Wireless Wide Area Networks (WWAN) communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates (144 Kbps to 2+ Mbps ) suitable for multimedia content. 3G supports broadband and bandwidth applications, such as full-motion video, video conferencing and Internet access Figure 59: Technology Evolution – 3G CDMA GSM Features • Offers better quality voice and highspeed data than 2.5G networks • Supports packet applications and access to the Internet 3G Data Rates (downlink/uplink): • WCDMA: 384 Kbps (both ways) • CDMA2000 EV-DO: 2.4 Mbps/ 155 Kbps Source: Portio Research Ltd. UMTS • • Universal Mobile Telecommunications System: This is the future transmission network for third generation mobile telephones, as defined by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) Initially, UMTS offered rates of 144-384 Kbits/sec (compared to 9.6 Kbits/sec for GSM). The data rates for the technology have increased with evolution. This standard, with very wide bands, is expected to make the development of new multimedia services possible, notably in the transmission of video, images and sound W-CDMA • • • Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (W-CDMA) is the most common form of UMTS This is the third generation standard offered to the International Telecommunication Union by GSM proponents. This is a 3G technology that increases data transmission rates in GSM systems by using CDMA instead of TDMA W-CDMA has become the Direct Sequence mode in the ITU's 3G specification, which includes the 1x Multi-Carrier mode (1x MC) and 3x Multi-Carrier mode (3x MC). 1x MC (formerly known as cdma2000) and 3x MC comprise the 3G upgrade paths for operators already using CDMA © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 151
  • 152. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 EV-DO • Evolution Data Optimised (EV-DO) is a wireless radio broadband data protocol being adopted by many CDMA operators • It is being used as a part of CDMA2000 networks in Japan, Korea, the United States and Canada. It provides comparatively better data speeds than GSM technologies such as GPRS and EDGE 3.5G • • • 3.5G technologies are the evolution of 3G technologies to enable broadband speeds in mobile networks There are several protocols in the High-Speed Packet Access (HSPA) family, also coined 3.5G or 3G+, which allows networks based on Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) to have higher data transfer speeds and capacity HSPA refers to a family of broadband technologies – HSDPA and HSUPA HSDPA • High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) is an enhanced 3G (third generation) mobile telephony communications protocol • This upgrade is to increase the efficiency and reduce the latency of the link and is achieved by utilising a number of techniques—such as Adaptive Modulation and Coding, Fast Packet Scheduling and Hybrid Automatic Repeat reQuest (HARQ)—in parallel HSUPA • High Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA) uses techniques similar to those utilised by HSDPA with the difference lying in the mode of scheduling to improve the uplink. The adaptation enables synchronous data transmissions of up to 5.7Mb/s HARQ • Hybrid Automatic Repeat reQuest technique is employed to rectify the errors in the transmission of the packets between the node B and the consumer’s device EV-DO Rev-A • EV-DO Revision A improves first-generation EV-DO speeds for CDMA carriers Figure 60: Technology Evolution – 3.5G CDMA GSM 3.5G Features • Improved data rates enabling broadband speeds on mobile networks • Supports packet applications and access to the Internet Data Rates (downlink/uplink): • HSDPA/HSUPA: 1.8 Mbps/800 Kbps • CDMA2000 EV-DO Rev. A: 2.4 Mbps/155 Kbps Source: Portio Research Ltd. 152 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 153. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 4G • 4G or fourth generation WWAN (Wireless Wide Area Network) communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates at 20+ Mbps, suitable for high-resolution movies and television The proposed features of these systems include 100 Mbps speed, location sensing and selftailoring as per user needs Some competing technology standards for 4G technologies are mobile WiMAX, the GSM standard’s UMTS Long Term Evolution (LTE), and CDMA EV-DO Rev. C (also known as UltraMobile Broadband or UMB) • • Figure 61: Technology Evolution – 4G CDMA GSM Features • Supports IP end-to-end • Enables personalised, highdefinition multimedia and video services 4G Data Rates (downlink/uplink): • UMTS LTE: 100 Mbps/50 Mbps • CDMA2000 EV-DO Rev. C: 129 Mbps/75.6 Mbps Source: Portio Research Ltd. Long-Term Evolution (LTE) • LTE is the standard being developed by 3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project) to achieve download rates of 100 Mbps, and upload rates of 50 Mbps for every 20MHz of spectrum and is termed as a 4G standard • LTE will have support for bandwidths ranging from 1.25MHz to 20MHz • In December 2009, LTE release 9 was introduced with minor enhancement to release 8 • LTE release 10 and above, with much higher peak rates, throughput and coverage, are expected to qualify for the IMT-Advanced 4G standard WiMAX • • • • • Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) refers to the 802.16e technologies which have evolved through several enhancements of the 802.11 technologies (used for providing Wi-Fi services) WiMAX enables high-order modulation, efficient coding, adaptive modulation and coding as well as Hybrid Automatic Repeat Request (HARQ), which is similar to the GSM technology HSPA (High-Speed Packet Access) WiMAX offers fixed broadband wireless access to residential and small business users. These also enable Internet access in those countries where network infrastructure is not in place for wireline communications By using WiMAX, people can access the Internet on laptops and mobile handsets without physically connecting them to a router, hub or Ethernet cable Mobile WiMAX (IEEE 802.16e) is based on Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (OFDMA) technology and achieves data transfer rates of up to 70 Mbps in both downlink and uplink © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 153
  • 154. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 • Mobile WiMAX is being combined with multiple antenna technology - Multiple Input and Multiple Output (MIMO), to carry more data traffic One of the latest developments in the IEEE 802.16 family of standards, denoted as IEEE 802.16m, has been qualified as the IMT–Advanced 4G standard and is expected to achieve data transfer rates up to 1 Gbps • Network Components and Services Backhaul • • Backhaul refers to the process of transmitting voice and data traffic from a remote site to a central site The backhaul section of the network consists of the intermediate links between the core network and the small sub-networks in the hierarchical network Base Transceiver Station (BTS) • BTS is the equipment that facilitates the wireless communication between user equipments such as mobile handsets, computers etc., and the mobile network Mobile Services Switching Center (MSC) • Mobile Services Switching Center (MSC) refers to a network element responsible for network interfacing, toll ticketing and routing services such as voice calls, SMS and conference calls over GSM/CDMA network Base Station Controller (BSC) • BSC, responsible for handling traffic and signaling, provides a physical link between MSC and BTS Node-B • • Node-B is a term used in Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) to refer to the Base Transceiver Station (BTS) Node B consists of radio frequency transmitters and receivers that are used to communicate directly with the handsets IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) • • 154 IP Multimedia Subsystem is an extension of the GSM / 3GPP GPRS core Network It uses SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) to set up, maintain and terminate packet-switched voice and multimedia sessions © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 155. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Figure 62: Network Architecture — Wireless Networks Access Networks Backhaul Networks Core Networks PSTN TDM Backhaul Mobile Handsets, Laptops, Customer Premises Equipments Cell Sites (BTS/Node-B) for 2G/3G/4G Internet IP Multimedia Subsystems Ethernet Backhaul BSC/RNC Optical Microwave or IP/MPLS Backhaul SGSN IP MPLS and Optical Core Source: Portio Research Ltd. Radio Access Network (RAN) • RAN is a component that exists between the mobile handset and the core network. It performs the radio functionality of the network and provides connection to the core network Remote Access Virtual Private Network (VPN) • • Remote Access VPN Server allows remote users to access resources on a private network over virtual private network (VPN) connections. These servers can also provide network address translation (NAT), which enables the computers on the private network to share a single connection with the Internet With VPN and NAT, VPN clients can determine the IP addresses of the computers on the private networks Short Message Service Centre (SMSC) • • Short Message Service Centre (SMSC) provides the routing of all SMS or text messages in any mobile network Similar to an e-mail server, the SMSC handles large volumes of messages sent between two mobile handsets or a mobile handset and a software application Multimedia Message Service Centre (MMSC) • • Mobile Message Service Centre receives the submission by the MMS client and routes the MMS to the recipient handset. The MMSC sends a notification to the recipient using SMS notification, HTTP Push or WAP Push There are two modes of MMS delivery: Immediate delivery and Deferred delivery. In immediate delivery, the recipient MMS client retrieves the MMS immediately after the SMS notification without any intervention. In deferred delivery, the MMS client alerts the subscriber about the availability of a new MMS and provides the option of time of retrieving (or not retrieving) the MMS © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 155
  • 156. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 SS7 • • SS7 is a global standard for telecommunications defined by the ITU Telecommunication Standardisation Sector (ITU-T) The standard defines the procedures and protocol by which network elements in the public switched telephone network (PSTN) exchange information over a digital signalling network to effect mobile (cellular) and wire-line call setup, routing and control Femtocell • • • Femtocells are small, low power (always radiating less than 0.1 watts) 3G access points that provide strong mobile signals directly inside the home, when plugged into a residential DSL or cable broadband connection Femtocells are also referred to as ‘home base stations’, ‘3G access points’, ‘small base stations’ or personal ‘2G-3G base stations’. They can be placed inside a house or a building, with current designs supporting up to six simultaneous mobile connections They connect to the operators’ networks via broadband, thereby saving the costs associated with installing cell towers, and also reduce backhaul costs by routing mobile phone traffic through an existing IP network The figure below explains the functioning of femtocells. Figure 63: Femtocells: How they Operate? Source: The Femto Forum Thin Client • • Thin Client refers to a computer or software in client-server architecture networks The primary purpose of Thin Client is to convey input and output between the user and the remote server Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) • • • Wi-Fi is a technology based on the IEEE 802.11 standards, which enables the interoperability of wireless local area network devices A Wi-Fi enabled device, such as a mobile handset, PDA or PC, can connect to the Internet when within range of a wireless network connected to the Internet The coverage of one or more interconnected access points is termed as a hotspot . 156 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 157. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 National leased lines • • A leased line is a symmetric telecommunication line connecting two locations. Leased lines can be used for telephone, data or Internet services Leased lines are comparatively expensive when compared to alternative connectivity products (ADSL, SDSL, etc.) due to the fact that they are reserved exclusively to the leaseholder International Private Leased Circuit (IPLC) • • • IPLC is a dedicated circuit that rides a pre-defined route and all bandwidth is dedicated to a single customer on those connections IPLC is different from IP networks in the fact that IP networks use a common backbone, and the users get the bandwidth they subscribe for. There is no direct path; either frame relay or Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) is used to provide specified levels of service. Therefore, the path the first packet takes might be different from the next. Managed IPLC is a one-stop provisioning of end-to-end International Private Leased lines which connects to a customer's equipment using the service provider’s Point-Of-Presence (an interface between telecommunication entities) Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) VSAT (Very Small Aperture Terminal) satellite solutions are provided to clients in remote or developing regions. Depending on the client’s requirements, various customised solutions can be provided, such as: • • • SCPC (Single Channel Per Carrier) networks for dedicated high-speed connectivity via satellite Meshed (or Any-to-Any) networks for companies with remote operations requiring real-time communication between sites Star Networks for providing high bandwidth without the costs incurred due to a dedicated link Managed Services • • Managed Services include establishing, operating and managing day-to-day operations of a telecom network and business support systems These services also refer to the cases where a provider takes responsibility for providing the required network capacity to an operator, when and where needed, as well as hosting of content, applications and enablers Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) • Voice over Internet Protocol is a family of transmission technologies referring to the delivery of voice communications over IP networks such as the Internet or other packet-switched networks PCS networks • In the U.S., the 1.9 GHz band has been allocated for PCS systems; the allocated spectrum is 120 MHz wide and is licensed as two 30 MHz segments for the 51 major trading areas, and three 10 MHz segments for the 493 basic trading areas Visitor Location Register (VLR) • Visitor Location register is a temporary database which stores information about subscribers roaming on other networks • There is only one VLR associated with each base station © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 157
  • 158. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Orthogonal variable spreading factor (OVSF) • • Orthogonal Variable spreading factor support multirate applications by allowing multicode transmissions from a single user, thus achieving higher bandwidth efficiencies OVSF codes are used in both universal terrestrial radio access–frequency division duplex (UTRAFDD) and time division duplex (UTRA-TDD) of the 3G mobile communication systems Synchronous Optical Networking (SONET) • Synchronous Optical Networking, designed by American National Standards Institute, refers to a physical network interface and acts as a carrier for multiple application protocols • It supports the transport of large volumes of traffic over a long distance through optical fiber Gateway Mobile Services Switching Center (GMSC) • Gateway Mobile Services Switching Center is a node which interconnects two networks Mobile Services Instant Messaging • • • Instant Messaging is an Internet-based service that alerts users when their friends or colleagues are online and allows them to communicate with each other in real-time through private online chat areas With instant messaging, users create a list of other users with whom they want to communicate. When a user from their list is online, the service alerts them and enables an immediate contact with the other user While instant messaging has primarily been a proprietary service offered by Internet service providers (ISPs) such as AOL and MSN, businesses are starting to employ instant messaging to increase employee efficiency and make expertise more readily available to employees Enterprise Services MNOs provide a suite of services which enable better functioning of the enterprise and augment their communication channels. These services are cutomised according to enterprise needs. Some of the popular services are given below: Toll Free Services • International Toll Free Services (ITFS): International Toll Free Services provide customers with global access to an enterprise through a free phone number. Toll-free numbers are also useful for handling customer support issues from around the world • Domestic Toll Free Services (DTFS): Domestic Toll Free Services enables enterprises to provide customer assistance in the domestic market Digital Fixed Cellular Terminal • Digital Fixed Cellular Terminal (FCT) is a cost optimised solution which routes the calls to the most optimum path • The optimisation process enables a saving of up to 70 percent of total telecom spends by the enterprises Vehicle Tracking Solution • Vehicle tracking Solution (VTS) is a location based service. This utilises a combination of GPSGPRS technology to enable real-time fleet tracking and is useful for providing location based services for employee security 158 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 159. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mobile e-mail Mobile e-mail services refer to the provision of e-mail services, including reading, replying to, and forwarding e-mails, on mobile devices. Enterprise mobile e-mail solutions provided by the MNOs enable the real-time synchronisation of an e-mail server and a mobile device for updating an e-mail inbox, calendar and personal contacts Push e-mail • Push e-mail refers to the service in which new e-mail is instantly transferred to the e-mail client (or Mail User Agent) by the mail server (or Mail Delivery Agent). E-mail clients include smartphones and Internet Message Access Protocol (IMAP) personal computer mail applications Several technologies used in the e-mail clients and the server to enable desired mobile e-mail characteristics are described below: POP3 • Post Office Protocol (POP3) is a type of polling e-mail delivery protocol in which the client polls the server to see if there is new mail at login and after specified intervals thereafter • If there are any new mails, they are downloaded on the user’s device. The outgoing mails are pushed directly from the sender to the server Difference between Push e-mail and Polling e-mail systems: • The difference between a push e-mail system and polling e-mail system is that e-mails are pushed to the last delivery step in a push e-mail system • The polling system is more applicable for the last stage of mail delivery in cases where the client may be occasionally connected to the network or might be changing the network. Although the server is permanently connected to the network, it faces difficulty in locating the client in these cases IMAP • The Internet Message Access Protocol (IMAP) provides support for polling and notifications for the e-mails. When a client receives a notification from a server, the client may choose to download new data from the server • The availability of choice of downloading (or not downloading) makes the process of retrieval of new e-mails more flexible than a purely-push system Location Based Services • • A location-based service (LBS) is an information service provided by an MNO by utilising the data pertaining to the current geographical location of a mobile device The service includes vehicle tracking and parcel tracking services. LBS is also being utilised for pushing mobile commerce, personalised weather information services and location based games Mobile Video Service Technologies Digital Video Broadcast-Handheld (DVB-H) technology allows the simultaneous broadcast of television, video and radio channels on mobile, and helps operators to preserve network bandwidth for other data and voice services. It has been accepted as the standard by the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) Integrated Services Digital Broadcast – Terrestrial (ISDB-T) • ISDB-T is the transmission standard that has been developed in Japan to help the radio and television stations support digital content © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 159
  • 160. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Digital Media Broadcast (DMB) • DMB is a transmission standard, which transmits video feeds via satellite (S-DMB) or terrestrial (T-DMB) mode • The standard is currently deployed in South Korea and is being increasingly used in other parts of Asia, as well as in Europe Multimedia Broadcast/Multicast Service (MBMS) • MBMS standard allows the transmission of multimedia content over the UMTS and GSM network MediaFLO • MediaFLO technology has been developed by Qualcomm. The "F-L-O" in MediaFLO stands for Forward Link Only. The technology is used to transmit data pertaining to mobile video services to portable devices such as cell phones and PDAs • Broadcast data includes real-time audio and video streams, individual, non-realtime video and audio clips, as well as Internet Protocol datacast application data Mobile Gaming Services Java • A simple platform-independent object-oriented programming language used for writing applets that are downloaded from the World Wide Web by a client and run on the client's machine Java2, Micro edition (J2ME) • The Micro Edition of the Java 2 Platform provides an application environment that specifically addresses the needs of commodities in the vast and rapidly growing consumer and embedded space, including mobile handsets, pagers, personal digital assistants, set-top boxes, and vehicle telematics systems Augmented Reality (AR) • • • Augmented reality (AR) is a live artificial machine amplified image of the real physical world that is interactive and loaded with digital information The potential uses of augmented reality lies in the field of gaming, entertainment, education, security, information services, medicine and business Augmented reality can contribute to enhancements and innovations in many mobile application categories—with mobile gaming and location-based service applications being key categories Cloud Computing • • • • 160 Mobile cloud computing refers to server-based infrastructure where data storage and data processing for personal data and mobile apps happens outside the device, thus eliminating the need for smartphones with high-end software or hardware for storage and computing purposes The arrival of cloud computing technology for mobile devices will help address some of the limitations of smartphones, in terms of storage and computing, by using more capable network technologies. Cloud Computing will enable users to track their data in real-time from anywhere, anytime and from any device The enterprise sector is driving growth in cloud applications. Apps for the enterprise sector provide organisations with beneficial mobile access to their company resources © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 161. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Chapter 7 Appendices © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 161
  • 162. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Appendices This market study has been written in a way that avoids excessive use of market acronyms (except where appropriate) and industry technical talk, as we have tried to keep the text open to all readers, not just those with in-depth knowledge of the world’s mobile markets. Because this study covers all geographical regions and many emerging markets, a great deal of the data contained within this study will potentially be of interest to investors, financial analysts, consultants, venture capitalists and others all around the world who do not work within the mobile industry itself every day of their lives. To many of these people, some of the industry technical talk and acronyms may be confusing, so we have attempted to write this study in a self explanatory way that assumes little prior knowledge, but in doing this, some of the speech chosen may seem somewhat "obvious" to our more knowledgeable readers. We hope this offers the best possible solution to everyone, and we hope this does not cause any confusion or inconvenience. Where we have used technical terms or acronyms, we offer an explanation of those expressions below. 162 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 163. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Glossary 2G or Second Generation Packet Data Networks The second-generation packet networks recently introduced consist of combined voice and packet data networks based on global standards. 2.5G 2.5G describes the state of wireless technology and capability usually associated with General Packet Radio Services (GPRS) - that is, between the second and third generations of wireless technology. The second generation or 2G-level of wireless is usually identified as Global System for Mobile (GSM) service and the third generation or 3G-level is usually identified as Universal Mobile Telecommunication Service (UMTS). Each generation provides a higher data rate and additional capabilities. There is also a fourth generation (4G) of technology in the planning and research stages. 2.5G protocols extend 2G systems to provide additional features such as packet-switched connection (GPRS) and enhanced data rates (HSCSD, EDGE). 3G or third generation 3G is an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) specification for the third generation (analog cellular was the first generation and digital PCS118 was the second generation) of mobile communication technology. Third generation Wireless Wide Area Networks (WWAN) communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates (144 Kbps119 to 2+ Mbps120) suitable for multimedia content. 3G technologies typically are packet-switched and use Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology to communicate. Examples of 3G include EDGE121, 1xRTT, HDR and W-CDMA.122 3G protocols in mobile telephony support higher data transmission rates, measured in Mbps, intended for applications other than voice. 3G support broadband and bandwidth applications, such as fullmotion video, video conferencing and Internet access. 3G as a Percentage 3G as a percentage refers to 3G subscribers as a percentage of total active mobile subscribers in a country. This represents the proportion of 3G subscribers in the total mobile subscriber base of a country. 3G Penetration 3G penetration refers to 3G subscribers as a percentage of total population of the country. This is similar to the term ‘mobile penetration’, which means total number of active mobile subscribers in a country as a percentage of total population of the country. 4G or fourth generation 4G or fourth generation WWAN communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates at 20+ Mbps, suitable for high-resolution movies and television. The initial deployment of 4G communication systems is expected in 2006-2010. The proposed features of these systems include 100 Mbps speed, location sensing and self-tailoring to user needs. A2P Application-to-Peer: In the mobile messaging world A2P messages are defined as messages generated by an application and sent to subscribers, for example, the advertisements sent through SMS/MMS on subscribers’ handsets. 118 Personal Communications Service (PCS) Kilobits per second (Kbps) 120 Megabits per second (Mbps) 121 Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE) 122 Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (W-CDMA) 119 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 163
  • 164. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 AAC Advance Audio Coding: It is an advanced audio compression algorithm used for downloading music files, streaming video, audio and satellite-radio applications. Application Programming Interface (API) It is an interface implemented by a software program to communicate with other software. Operating systems and applications use API to determine the way to call or send requests to other software. Augmented Reality (AR) Augmented reality is the superimposition of virtual content over the real time environment. Virtual content includes digital graphics, audio and other sense enhancements, which are augmented to the real world by an AR device. Average Revenue per User (ARPU) Measures the average monthly revenue generated for each customer unit, such as a handset or pager that an operator has in operation. Backhaul It refers to the process of transmitting voice and data traffic from a remote site to a central site. BREW Binary Runtime Environment for Wireless: It is an application development platform developed by Qualcomm. It enables wireless users to download and run applications, such as enhanced e-mail, location positioning, games, etc., to BREW-enabled handset. BREW was first introduced and developed for CDMA handsets, but it now supports GSM/GPRS and UMTS handsets as well. BTS Base Transceiver Station: It is the equipment that facilitates the wireless communication between user equipment such as mobile handsets, computers etc., and the mobile network. Broadcast Technologies for Mobile TV Some of the broadcast technologies for mobile TV worldwide are: DVB-H123 (Digital Video Broadcast – Handheld): DVB-H technology allows simultaneous broadcast of television, video and radio channels on mobile, and helps operators to preserve network bandwidth for other data and voice services. It has been accepted as the standard by the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI). ISDB-T (Integrated Services Digital Broadcast – Terrestrial): It is the transmission standard that has been developed in Japan to help the radio and television stations support digital content. DMB (Digital Media Broadcast): It is a transmission standard, which transmits video feed via satellite (S-DMB) or terrestrial (T-DMB) mode. The standard is currently deployed in Korea and is being increasingly used in other parts of Asia as well as Europe. MBMS (Multimedia Broadcast/Multicast Service): This standard allows the transmission of multimedia content over the UMTS and GSM network. 123 Source: http://www.strategiy.com/inews.asp?id=20041127000355 164 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 165. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 BWA Broadband Wireless Access: It is a form of fixed wireless access system. Byte Byte is a collection of bits in which each bit can take a value of either 1 or 0. Kbps, Mbps and Gbps denote the number of bytes transferred per second; Kbps, Mbps and Gbps translate to 103, 106 and 109 bytes per second respectively. CAPEX Capital Expenditure: It refers to the cost of developing a product or system. CDMA Code Division Multiple Access: In a CDMA system, each voice circuit is labelled with a unique code and transmitted on a single channel simultaneously along with many other coded voice circuits. The receiver uses the same code to recover the signal from the noise. CDMA2000 1x CDMA2000 1x: This is regarded as the first phase of CDMA2000 technology used for providing voice and data services over mobile networks. Data speeds of 307kbps are using a single channel while with two channels speeds of 614kbps are possible. Churn Rate It is the rate at which the subscribers cancel their subscription with the existing operator and sign up with another operator. Cloud Computing Cloud computing is a technology involved in delivering hosted services on the Internet. It is based on client-server architecture, which includes user device with applications (such as Web browsers) to access the back end (various components, such as data storage devices, servers, etc.). The back end components perform specific tasks and interact with each other through standard application programming interfaces. Dongle Dongle is a portable device which is connected to a laptop or desktop and resembles a USB flash drive. It is widely used as a wireless broadband adapter. DRM Digital Rights Management: It refers to a set of technologies used for the administration of digital content. It authorises the nature and restricts the frequency of the usage based on the administrative policy settings. It sustains the revenue of the mobile network operator by regulating the usage of content at end user. DSL Digital Subscriber Loop: It is a technology that provides digital data transmission over the copper lines of a PSTN network. Dumb Pipes Dumb pipe refers to a mobile operator’s wireless network being used only to transfer data/bytes between the Internet and the user’s device. For an operator being a dumb pipe, there is a potential loss of revenue for the operator, since the operator is generating revenue only for the network data access and is not receiving any significant share in data/content service revenue. EDGE Enhanced Data rates for Global Evolution: An enhanced modulation technique designed to increase network capacity and data rates in GSM networks. EDGE should provide data rates up to 384 Kbps. EDGE will let operators without a 3G license compete with 3G networks offering similar data services. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 165
  • 166. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 EV-DO Evolution Data Only, Evolution Data Optimised: It is a wireless radio broadband data protocol being adopted by many CDMA operators. It is being used as a part of CDMA2000 networks in Japan, Korea, the United States and Canada. It provides better data speeds in comparison to GSM technologies such as GPRS and EDGE. FDMA Frequency Division Multiple Access is a channel access protocol that allows a user dedicated allocation to single or multiple frequency bands. Feature Phone Feature phones are handsets with browsers (primarily based on embedded J2ME and BREW platforms) to enable access to web based e-mail, and sometimes have embedded applications for social networking, instant messaging (IM) and mobile banking. These phones often come with high resolution cameras, GPS and innovative multimedia features. The major differentiating factor between a smartphone and a feature phone is that feature phones do not have an open Operating System (OS). The OS present in smartphones, through its Application Programming Interface (API), enables subscribers to install and remove third-party applications. Smartphones are better integrated with the handset's User Interface than Java applications. Freemium Freemium is a strategy adopted by application stores in which trial or lite versions of premium apps are offered for free or for a small charge; and users have an option to upgrade the apps with additional features by paying additional charges. Gbps Please see “Byte”. GPRS General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) is a packet-based standard for mobile communication, which runs at speeds up to 115 kilobits per second, compared with GSM systems' 9.6 kilobits per second. GPRS supports a wide range of bandwidths and makes efficient use of limited bandwidth. It is particularly suited for sending and receiving small bursts of data, such as e-mail and web browsing, as well as large volumes of data. Applications for GPRS may include any of the following: chat, text and visual information, still images, moving images, web browsing, document sharing/collaborative working, audio, job dispatch, corporate e-mail, Internet e-mail, vehicle positioning, remote Local Area Network (LAN) access, file transfer or home automation. GSM Global System for Mobile communications, the most widely used digital mobile phone system and the mobile telephone standard in Europe. It was originally defined as a pan-European open standard for a digital cellular telephone network to support voice, data, text messaging and cross-border roaming. GSM is now one of the world's main 2G digital wireless standards. GSM is present in more than 160 countries and according to the GSM Association, accounts for approximately 70 percent of the total digital cellular wireless market. GSM is a time division multiplex (TDM) system. Implemented on 800, 900, 1800 and 1900 MHz frequency bands. GUI Graphical User Interface (GUI) is the front-end interface and navigation design of an application. This includes standard formats for representing text and graphics. GUIs have become the standard ways for interaction between users and digital devices. 166 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 167. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 HARQ Hybrid Automatic Repeat Request is a process of ensuring data transmission even in poor signal conditions with an adverse effect of lowering the throughput in better signal conditions. It does so by error-correction in addition to error detection in the transmitting bits. HSPA High Speed Packet Access comprises two mobile protocols: High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) and High Speed Uplink Packet Access (HSUPA). These protocols enhance the performance of WCDMA protocols. HTML Hyper Text Mark-up Language: It is a syntax based language used for designing web pages. The content of HTML, written in standard syntax, when opened in a web browser takes the form of Web page. The nascent version of HTML was used with easy syntax rules in comparison to existing HTML and MHTML versions of it. In recent times, the official standards of World Wide Web recommend Web developers to use XHTML 1.1, XHTML 1.0 and HTML 4.01 versions. i-mode i-mode is a proprietary packet-based information service for mobile handsets. It delivers information (such as mobile banking, and train timetable) to handsets and enables exchange of e-mail from mobile handsets on the PDC-P network. Launched in 1999 by NTT DOCOMO, i-mode is very popular in Japan (especially for e-mail and transfer of icons). IMPS IMPS (Instant Messaging and Presence Service) is an instant messaging system designed for mobile environments. Presence refers to the availability of a user for communication. IMS IMS IP Multimedia Subsystem is an extension of the GSM / 3GPP GPRS core Network. It uses SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) to set up, maintain and terminate packet-switched voice and multimedia sessions. Interoperability This is defined as the ability of a network to operate with other networks, such as two systems based on different protocols or technologies. In-app Payment In-app payment is the payment made by mobile user to get privileged features, services or digital goods while using mobile apps. The privileged feature may be moving from a free or lite version of an app to the full version. Instant Messaging (IM) Instant Messaging is an Internet-based service that alerts users when their friends or colleagues are online and allows them to communicate with each other in real-time through private online chat areas. With instant messaging, users create a list of other users with whom they want to communicate. When a user from their list is online, the service alerts them and enables an immediate contact with the other user. While instant messaging has primarily been a proprietary service offered by Internet service providers such as AOL and MSN, businesses are starting to employ instant messaging to increase employee efficiency and make expertise more readily available to employees. Integrated Mobile Broadcast (IMB) It is a 3GPP Release 8 Standard that empowers MNOs to offer Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Services in a spectrally efficient manner in the 3G TDD bands. It is deployed existing 3G FDD unicast technology. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 167
  • 168. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Intranet The intranet is a private network inside a company or an organisation, and uses software similar to that used on the Internet. Companies use intranets to manage projects, provide employee information, distribute data and information, etc. J2ME Java2, Micro edition: The Micro Edition of the Java 2 Platform provides an application environment that specifically addresses the needs of commodities in the vast and rapidly growing consumer and embedded space, including mobile handsets, pagers, personal digital assistants, set-top boxes, and vehicle telematics systems. Java A simple platform-independent object-oriented programming language used for writing applets that are downloaded from the World Wide Web by a client and run on the client's machine. Kbps Please see “Byte”. KPI Key Performance Indicator (KPI) is a term used to indicate the key indicators to measure the business and operational performance of the companies in order to evaluate success and competitive position in the market. In the case of mobile companies, we use commonly used KPIs, such as Subscriber Addition, Market Share, ARPU, Churn Rate, etc. In addition, Revenue, Operating Profit and Number of Employees are other KPIs generally used to benchmark different companies. LTE Long-Term Evolution (LTE) is the standard being developed by 3GPP to achieve download rates of 100Mbps, and upload rates of 50Mbps for every 20MHz of spectrum and is termed as a 4G standard. LTE has support for bandwidths ranging from 1.25MHz to 20MHz. LTE Commitments LTE commitments cover announcements from service providers about conducting trials and deployments for LTE networks. LTE Deployments LTE deployments refer to the successful launch of LTE services in a market by a service provider. LTE Engagements LTE engagements refer to the collaborations between service providers and infrastructure vendors to conduct LTE trials and deployments. An LTE trial or deployment may consist of more than one engagement. For example, TeliaSonera selected Ericsson and Nokia Siemens Networks for its LTE roll-out in Norway. In this case, one LTE deployment accounted for two LTE engagements. LTE Subscriber Base as a Percentage of Total Mobile Subscribers LTE subscriber base includes the subscribers using LTE services through dongles and handsets. LTE subscriber base as a percentage of total mobile subscribers refers to the percentage of mobile subscribers who use LTE services. M2M Machine-to-Machine: M2M generally means the communication between machines. However, in the mobile world, it is sometimes defined as Mobile-to-Mobile, which basically refers to communication that involves only mobiles and not landlines. MAN Metropolitan Area Network is a computer network that normally encompasses a city or a big premise. It is formed by connecting several local area networks. 168 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 169. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Mbps Please see “Byte”. MiFi MiFi is a collection of wireless routers that are used as mobile Wi-Fi hotspots. The technology is developed by Novatel Wireless. MIMO Multiple-Input and Multiple-Output refers to the use of more than one antenna at the transmitter and receiver end to enhance the communication process. Mobile Broadband Users as a Percentage A mobile broadband user as a percentage refers to mobile broadband users as a percentage of total active mobile subscribers in a country. This represents the proportion of mobile broadband users in the total mobile subscriber base of a country. MNO Mobile Network Operator. MNO market penetration It is the mobile subscriber base of an MNO expressed as a percentage of total population of the country of operation. Mobile penetration It is the mobile subscriber base in a country expressed as a percentage of its total population. Modem A modem is a device which modulates and demodulates analogue and digital signals for the transmission of signals over different carriers. MVNO Mobile Virtual Network Operator: Term used for a mobile operator who does not own its own spectrum and usually does not have its own network infrastructure. Instead, MVNOs have business arrangements with traditional mobile operators to buy minutes of use (MOU) for sale to their own customers. Native Apps Native apps are mobile applications developed specifically to run on a particular operating system or device. Near Field Communication Near Field Communication (NFC) is a wireless communication technology which uses short-range high frequency to enable the exchange of data between devices in proximity with each other. The distance between the communicating devices has to be less than 10 centimetres. NFC-capable devices can communicate with smartcard readers as well as other NFC-capable devices. Node - B It is a term used in Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) to refer to the Base Transceiver Station (BTS). ODM An original design manufacturer (ODM) is a firm involved in designing and manufacturing a product according to specifications provided by another firm. The products are sold under the brand of the firm which gives the manufacturing contract to the ODM. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 169
  • 170. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 OEM An original equipment manufacturer (OEM) is a firm which acquires a product (or a component) for reuse or incorporation into the products branded under its name. OFDMA Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access is an advancement of Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing to support mobile networks with more flexibility. Subsets of the subcarriers are assigned to individual users to facilitate multiple access. OMA-IMPS Open Mobile Alliance-Instant Messaging and Presence Service: It is an open mobile alliance enabler for instant messaging and presence. The first cut of this specification was developed by the Wireless Village consortium. OPEX Operating Expenditure: It refers to the ongoing costs for running or operating a product or system. OPhone OPhone is a mobile operating system developed by China Mobile. It runs on Linux kernel and is based on Google Android’s Open Mobile System (OMS) operating system. Over-the-Top Services Over-the-top services refer to those services which are available to users over mobile networks without MNOs being involved in planning, provisioning and selling them. Packet Data Packet data is a method of transmitting information in small packets each containing a certain amount of the information. Packet data networks allow transmission of high-speed data to and from devices connected to the network. Packet Data is similar to dial-up Internet access available in homes or in businesses with cable modems, ADSL124 lines, etc. P2P Peer-to-Peer: In the mobile messaging world, P2P messages are defined as messages exchanged between subscribers. These messages originate from and terminate to mobile subscribers’ handsets. PDA Personal Digital Assistant: A portable computing device capable of transmitting data. This device makes possible services such as paging, data messaging, electronic mail, computing, facsimile, date book and other information handling capabilities. PIM Personal Information Manager: Also known as a "contact manager," is a form of software that logs personal and business information, such as contacts, appointments, lists, notes, occasions, etc. QoS QoS stands for quality of service. RAN Radio Access Network: It is a component that exists between the mobile handset and the core network. It performs the radio functionality of the network and provides connection to the core network. 124 Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) 170 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 171. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 RFID Radio frequency identification (RFID) denotes a system employed to convey a unique serial number using radio waves. It does not require contact or line of sight for communication. An example of the deployment of this technology is in electronic toll collection using RFID tags. SC-FDMA Single-carrier frequency-division multiple access (SC-FDMA) facilitates multiple access schemes and is used for assigning multiple users to a shared communication resource. While in OFDMA, subsets of the subcarriers are assigned to individual users to assist multiple access schemes, SC-FDMA enables a single-carrier transmission scheme. SDK Software Development Kit is a set of tools used for the development of an application for a software package. Service Revenue Service revenues are the revenues earned by MNOs through the provision of services only, i.e. revenues after deducting revenues earned from sales of equipment/products. SIM card It is a smart card that gives GSM handset its user identity. The card is inserted into a GSM/TDMA or GSM-only mobile handset containing subscriber-related data. The card contains 18 digits code for GSM markets and 20 digits code for TDMA markets. SIM Toolkit Subscriber Identity Module Application Toolkit: It is used by network operators to provide a user friendly interface on a subscribers’ handset to access value-added services provided by them. These applications also provide a mechanism for storing and using any service specific parameters. These applications are built within a SIM card by mobile network operators. SIMPLE SIMPLE (Session Initiation Protocol for Instant Messaging and Presence Leveraging Extensions) is an open standard instant messaging (IM) protocol. SIP Session Initiation Protocol or SIP is a standard multimedia and telephony protocol for initiating an interactive user session over mobile networks. The services under SIP may include call forwarding, number delivery, authentication and other telecoms applications. Smartphone A smartphone is a mobile handset which runs on operating system (OS) software and offers some of the capabilities of a PC. It provides a standardised interface and platform for application developers and is enabled with advanced features, such as e-mail, Internet and an e-book reader. Some of the other features expected from a smartphone include built-in full keyboard/external USB keyboard, powerful microprocessors, memory, built-in modem and large screens. The major differentiating factor between a smartphone and a feature phone is that an open Operating System (OS) is present in a smartphone. The OS, through its Application Programming Interface (API), enables subscribers to install and remove third-party applications. Smartphones are better integrated with the handset's User Interface than Java applications. SMS TV This is defined as the use of SMS for variety of applications, such as voting, teletext chat for TV programmes. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 171
  • 172. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 SMSC Short Message Service Centre (SMSC) provides the routing of all SMS or text messages in any mobile network. Similar to e-mail server, the SMSC handles large volumes of messages sent between two mobile handsets or a mobile handset and a software application. Spectrum Allocation The use of radio frequency electromagnetic spectrum in a country is regulated by government bodies who then allocate spectrum to telecom companies. The license for using a particular spectrum is typically awarded following a bidding process. There are certain guidelines for using the allocated spectrum which service providers must adhere to —including a minimum quality of service, and roll-out timelines for the services for which the license has been issued. SS7 SS7 is a global standard for telecommunications defined by ITU Telecommunication Standardisation Sector (ITU-T). The standard defines the procedures and protocol by which network elements in the public switched telephone network (PSTN) exchange information over a digital signalling network to effect mobile (cellular) and wire-line call setup, routing and control. TDD Time Division Multiplex: This is a scheme for allowing simultaneous transmission and receiving of data at the same frequency, but with the different time slots allocated to them. TDMA Time Division Multiple Access: A TDMA channel is a single FDMA channel divided up in time into multiple time slots. TDMA system is able to transmit multiple voice circuits per channel. Three users can take it in turn to share one radio channel. The channels can vary in bandwidth and depending on the type of system, the time slots can transmit all or part of a voice circuit. Each user's speech is stored, compressed and transmitted as a quick packet, using controlled time slots to distinguish them-hence the phrase 'time division'. It uses 30 KHz channels and a vocoder rate of 8 Kbits/sec. At the receiver, the packet is de-compressed. TD-SCDMA Time Division Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access: It is an air interface used in UMTS mobile telecommunications networks. It has been deployed in China to replace W-CDMA technology. Thin Client Thin Client refers to a client computer or client software in client-server architecture networks. The primary purpose of Thin Client is to convey input and output between the user and the remote server. UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunications System: This is the future transmission network for third generation mobile telephones, as defined by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU). In time, UMTS could reach transmission capacities of 2 Mbits/sec. (compared to 9.6 Kbits/sec. for GSM). Initially UMTS will offer rates of 144 to 384 Kbits/sec. This standard will make the development of new multimedia services having very wide bands and new uses, notably in the transmission of video, images and sound possible. UMTS TDD Universal Mobile Telecommunication System (UMTS) Time-Division-Depleting (TDD): UMTS TDD Mobile Broadband technology is a packet data implementation of the international 3GPP UMTS standard and is designed to work in a single unpaired frequency band. It is designed to generate typical data transfer rates of up to 2 Mbps. UMTS FDD Universal Mobile Telecommunication System (UMTS) Frequency Division Duplex (FDD): It is designed to generate typical data transfer rates of up to 384 Kbps and is suitable for wide area coverage due to potentially high reach. 172 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 173. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 USB Universal Serial Bus is a specification used to initiate data transfer between devices and a host controller. USSD Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) is a standard for transmitting information over GSM networks. It is primarily used to access the information on prepaid balances and similar details. UTRA-FDD Universal terrestrial radio access–frequency division duplex (FDD) refers to paired frequencies in which the transmitter and receiver operate simultaneously but at different frequencies UTRA-TDD Time division duplex (TDD) refers to unpaired frequency which is shared between uplink and downlink data rates VAS Mobile operators offer various services which are not part of the basic voice offer. These services are availed off separately by the mobile subscribers. It includes services such as SMS, MMS, mobile email, mobile games, mobile music etc. These also include services such as WAP, voicemail, call diversion, etc. Vertical Devices Vertical devices are smartphones optimised to run mobile enterprise applications and are particularly useful for a mobile work fleet. These devices are designed to provide high-bandwidth data collection and enable employees to access and update enterprise databases in a real-time environment. Aside from powerful processors, vertical devices are often enabled with capabilities such as a bar code scanner, digital camera, and two-way radio. WAP Wireless Advance Protocol: WAP is a specification for a set of communication protocols to standardise the way mobile devices, such as handsets and radio transceivers, can be used for Internet access. The WAP standard is based on Internet standards (HTML, XML and TCP/IP). It consists of a Wireless Markup Language (WML) specification, a WMLScript specification, and a Wireless Telephony Application Interface (WTAI) specification. The WAP protocol is the leading standard for information services on wireless terminals such as digital handsets. Some examples of WAP for accessing information include the following: checking train timings, purchasing tickets, flight check-in, viewing traffic information, checking weather conditions, looking up stock values, looking up phone numbers, looking up addresses or looking up sport results, and there are countless more. W-CDMA Wideband Code Division Multiple Access: The third generation standard offered to the International Telecommunication Union by GSM proponents. This is a 3G technology that increases data transmission rates in GSM systems by using CDMA instead of TDMA. W-CDMA has become the Direct Sequence mode in the ITU's 3G specification which includes the 1x Multi-Carrier mode (1x MC) and 3x Multi-Carrier mode (3x MC). 1x MC (formerly known as cdma2000) and 3x MC comprise the 3G upgrade paths for operators already using CDMA. WiBro Wireless Broadband: The technology was formulated by South Korean telecom industry as an equivalent to mobile WiMAX international standard. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 173
  • 174. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Wi-Fi Wireless Fidelity: It is used to provide wireless local area network through enhanced interoperability of the network. Services such as Internet, VoIP phone access, and gaming, etc., can be provided using Wi-Fi. WiMAX Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access: It is a telecommunication technology used for wireless data transfer over long distances through point-to-point links as well as mobile cellular type access. It is based on standards that are useful in wireless broadband access. Wireless MAN Wireless Metropolitan Area Network: The technology is used to provide wireless network over a larger area as compared to local area network. WLL Wireless Local Loop: It refers to the wireless devices that are situated in fixed locations. The signal transmissions occur through the air and it provides connectivity to the users in remote and isolated areas without the need for laying new cables. 174 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 175. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Portio Research Classifications Geographical Regions: There is sometimes a difference in the way research firms classify the major geographical territories. At Portio Research, we follow 'obvious' geographical lines, but for the record, here are the regional definitions we follow, unless otherwise stated in the report: Western Europe: Standard classification includes Iceland and various islands Central and Eastern Europe: Includes standard list of Central and Eastern European countries, and the Baltic states, Balkans, Russia, Greece and Turkey Asia Pacific: Includes Australasia, the Indian Sub-Continent, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and the Former Soviet Union Central Asian republics North America: Standard classification, including Hawaii and islands to the North Latin America: Includes all South and Central American countries including Mexico, The Caribbean and The West Indies Middle East: Includes Israel and all Middle Eastern countries East of Egypt, South of Turkey and West of Afghanistan Africa: Standard classification includes territories in Western Indian Ocean Mobile Subscribers Generally, we count active SIMs, and we consider active as being used within 3 months, but, of course there is some room for variance, depending on what figures operators themselves publish or report to us when we interview them. When running spot-checks on operator numbers, we are governed by the figures they give us, and as we are all aware, many individuals and companies around the world count their subscribers/subscriptions by a number of different criteria. We refer to "total subscribers" for a network/country or globally, as a count of the total number of active subscriptions those networks have, and as such this can cause a slight distortion of any country-penetration rate. Currency and Monetary Values All monetary values quoted in this report are in US Dollars as the most widely recognised benchmark internationally. The currency conversion has been done on the year average basis. Whilst researching global mobile markets, we use http://www.oanda.com/ for all currency conversion calculations. © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 175
  • 176. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Companies Mentioned in this Report Company 012 Smile Communications www.012smile.com 3 Australia www.three.com.au 3 Austria www.drei.at 3 Denmark www.3.dk 3 Hong Kong www.three.com.hk 3 Indonesia www.three.co.id 3 Ireland www.3ireland.ie 3 Italia www.tre.it 3 Sweden www.tre.se 3 The UK www.three.co.uk Afric Xpress www.africxpress.com AIS Thailand www.ais.co.th Alcatel-Lucent www.alcatel-lucent.com Alvarion www.alvarion.com Apple www.apple.com Asiacell Iraq www.asiacell.com AT&T The US www.att.com Avea Turkey www.avea.com.tr AWCC Afghanistan www.afghan-wireless.com Banglalink Bangladesh www.banglalinkgsm.com Base (KPN) Belgium www.base.be Batelco www.batelco.com.bh Beeline Ukraine www.beeline.ua Bell Mobility Canada www.bell.ca Bezeq www.bezeq.co.il Bharti Airtel India www.airtel.in BITE Lithuania www.bite.lt Bouygues France www.bouyguestelecom.fr Brasil Telecom www.oi.com.br BSNL www.bsnl.co.in Cable & Wireless 176 Website www.cw.com © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 177. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Company Website Carrefour www.carrefour.com Celcom Malaysia www.celcom.com.my Cell C South Africa www.cellc.co.za Cellcom Israel www.cellcom.co.il Celtel (Zain) DR Congo www.cd.zain.com China Mobile www.chinamobileltd.com China Telecom www.chinatelecom-h.com China Unicom www.chinaunicom.com.cn Chunghwa Taiwan www.cht.com.tw Claro www.claro.com.jm Claro Argentina www.claro.com.ar Claro Brazil www.claro.com.br Claro Chile www.clarochile.cl Claro Peru www.claro.com.pe CMPak Pakistan www.zong.com.pk Comcel Colombia www.comcel.com.co Cosmote Greece www.cosmote.gr Cosmote Romania www.cosmote.ro CSL New World Mobility Hong Kong www.hkcsl.com Deutsche Telekom www.telekom.com DiGi Malaysia www.digi.com.my Digicel www.digiceljamaica.com Digitel Venezuela www.digitel.com.ve Djezzy (Orascom) Algeria www.djezzygsm.com DNA Finland www.dna.fi DTAC Thailand www.dtac.co.th du The UAE www.du.ae Dubai Holdings www.dubaiholding.com Econet www.econetwireless.com Elisa Finland www.elisa.fi Entel PCS Chile www.entelpcs.cl E-Plus Germany www.eplus.de © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 177
  • 178. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Company Ericsson www.ericsson.com Etisalat Afghanistan www.etisalat.af Etisalat Misr Egypt www.etisalat.com.eg Etisalat The UAE www.etisalat.ae Everything Everywhere www.everythingeverywhere.com FeT Taiwan www.fetnet.net France Telecom www.francetelecom.com France Telecom Group www.orange.com Globacom Nigeria www.gloworld.com Globe The Philippines www.globe.com.ph Globul Bulgaria www.globul.bg GrameenPhone Bangladesh www.grameenphone.com Hewlett Packard www.hp.com HTC www.htc.com Huawei www.huawei.com Hutch Sweden www.tre.se IBM www.ibm.com Idea Cellular India www.ideacellular.com IMI mobile www.imimobile.com Intel www.intel.com Iusacell Mexico www.iusacell.com.mx Johnson & Johnson www.jnj.com KaR-Tel www.beeline.kz Kcell www.kcell.kz KDDI Japan www.kddi.com Korek Telecom www.korektel.com KPN www.kpn.com KTF South Korea www.kt.com Kyivstar Ukraine www.kyivstar.ua LG www.lge.com LG UPlus South Korea www.lgtelecom.com life:) Ukraine 178 Website www.life.com.ua © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 179. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Company Website M1 Singapore www.m1.com.sg Maroc Telecom Morocco www.maroctelecom.com Maxis Malaysia www.maxis.com.my mCel www.mcel.co.mz MCI www.tcitoo.com Meditel Morocco www.meditel.ma MegaFon Russia eng.megafon.ru Meteor Ireland www.meteor.ie Microsoft www.microsoft.com Mobifone Vietnam www.mobifone.com.vn Mobilink Pakistan www.mobilinkgsm.com Mobilis Algeria www.mobilis.dz Mobilkom Austria www.mobilkom.at Mobily Saudi Arabia www.mobily.com.sa MobiNil Egypt www.mobinil.com Mobistar Belgium www.mobistar.be Motorola www.motorola.com Movicel Angola www.movicel.net Movilnet Venezuela www.movilnet.com.ve Movistar Argentina www.movistar.com.ar Movistar Chile www.movistar.cl Movistar Colombia www.movistar.com.co Movistar Mexico www.movistar.com.mx Movistar Peru www.movistar.com.pe Movistar Spain www.movistar.es Movistar Venezuela www.movistar.com.ve mt:s Serbia www.telekom.rs M-tel Bulgaria www.mtel.bg MTN Afghanistan www.mtn.com.af MTN Ghana www.mtn.com.gh MTN Iran www.irancell.ir MTN Nigeria www.mtnonline.com © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 179
  • 180. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Company MTN South Africa www.mtn.co.za MTN Sudan www.mtn.sd MTN Syria www.spacetelsyria.com MTN Uganda www.mtn.co.ug MTS Belarus www.mts.by MTS Russia www.mtsgsm.com MTS Ukraine www.mts.com.ua Nawras (Qtel) www.nawras.com.om Nedjma Algeria www.nedjma.dz Netcom Norway www.netcom.no Nextel Argentina www.nextel.com.ar Nextel Brazil www.nextel.com.br Nextel Mexico www.nextel.com.mx Nextel Peru www.nextel.com.pe Nokia www.nokia.com Nokia Siemens Networks www.nokiasiemensnetworks.com NTT DOCOMO Japan www.nttdocomo.com NTT group www.ntt.co.jp O2 Czech Republic www.cz.o2.com O2 Germany www.telefonica.de O2 Ireland www.o2online.ie O2 The UK www.o2.co.uk Oi Brazil www.oi.com.br Omantel www.omantel.net.om Omnitel Lithuania www.omnitel.lt Optimus Portugal www.optimus.pt Optus Australia www.optus.com.au Orange Austria www.orange.at Orange France www.orange.com Orange Jordan www.orange.jo Orange Poland www.orange.pl Orange Romania 180 Website www.orange.ro © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 181. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Company Website Orange Slovakia www.orange.sk Orange Spain www.orange.es Orange Switzerland www.orange.ch Orange The UK www.orange.co.uk Orascom Alegria www.djezzygsm.com Orascom Tunisia www.tunisiana.com Pannon Hungary www.pannon.hu Partner Communications Israel www.orange.co.il PCCW Mobile Hong Kong www.pccwmobile.com Pelephone Israel www.pelephone.co.il Peoples Hong Kong www.peoples.com.hk Plus Poland www.plusgsm.pl Promonte Montenegro www.promonte.com Proximus Belgium www.proximus.be PTC Poland www.era.pl Qtel Qatar www.qtel.com.qa Reliance Communication India www.rcom.co.in RIM www.rim.com Robi Bangladesh www.robi.com.bd Rogers Canada www.rogers.com Royal Dutch Shell www.shell.com Safaricom Kenya www.safaricom.co.ke Samsung www.samsung.com Satelindo Indonesia www.indosat.com S-Fone vietnam www.sfone.com.vn SFR France www.sfr.fr SingTel Singapore www.singtel.com SK Telecom South Korea www.sktelecom.com Smart The Philippines www.smart.com.ph SmarTone Hong Kong www.smartone.com.hk Softbank Group www.softbank.co.jp SoftBank Japan www.softbank.jp © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 181
  • 182. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Company Sonofon Denmark www.sonofon.dk Sony Ericsson www.sonyericsson.com Sprint Nextel www.sprint.com Sprint The US www.sprint.com Starhub Singapore www.starhub.com STC (Saudi Telecom Company) www.stc.com.sa Sudatel www.sudatel.sd Sun The Philippines www.suncellular.com.ph Sunrise Switzerland www.sunrise.net Swisscom Switzerland www.swisscom.com Syria Tel www.syriatel.com Taiwan Mobile www.taiwanmobile.com Tata Teleservices www.tatateleservices.com TBayTel www.tbaytel.net TCI Iran www.irantelecom.ir TDC Denmark www.tdc.dk TDCA Afghanistan www.roshan.af Telcel Mexico www.telcel.com Tele2 Croatia www.tele2.hr Tele2 Lithuania www.tele2.lt Tele2 Russia www.tele2.ru Tele2 Sweden www.tele2.se Telecom Italia www.tim.it Telecom Mobile New Zealand www.telecom.co.nz Telecom Personal Argentina www.personal.com.ar Telefonica Group www.telefonica.com Telefonica Slovakia www.sk.o2.com Telenor Norway www.telenor.com Telenor Pakistan www.telenor.com.pk Telenor Serbia www.telenor.co.rs Telenor Sweden www.telenor.se Telia Denmark 182 Website www.telia.dk © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 183. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Company Website TeliaSonera Finland www.sonera.fi TeliaSonera Sweden www.telia.se Telkomsel Indonesia www.telkomsel.com Telstra Australia www.telstra.com.au Telus Mobility Canada www.telusmobility.com Tigo (MIC) DR Congo www.tigo.cd Tigo Colombia www.tigo.com.co Tigo Ghana www.tigo.com.gh Tigo Tanzania www.tigo.co.tz TIM Brasil www.timbrasil.com.br TMN Portugal www.tmn.pt T-Mobile Austria www.t-mobile.at T-Mobile Croatia www.t-mobile.hr T-Mobile Czech Republic www.t-mobile.cz T-Mobile Germany www.t-mobile.de T-Mobile Hungary www.t-mobile.hu T-Mobile Montenegro www.t-mobile.me T-Mobile Slovakia www.t-mobile.sk T-Mobile The Netherlands www.t-mobile.nl T-Mobile The UK www.t-mobile.co.uk T-Mobile The US www.t-mobile.com TOT Thailand www.tot.co.th Toyota Motor www.toyota.com Truemove Thailand www.truemove.com Tunicell Tunisia www.tunisietelecom.tn Tunisiana Tunisia www.tunisiana.com Turkcell Turkey www.turkcell.com Ufone Pakistan www.ufone.com Umniah www.umniah.com Unitel Angola www.unitel.co.ao Velcom Belarus www.velcom.by Verizon The US www.verizonwireless.com © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 183
  • 184. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Company Viettal Corporation www.viettel.com.vn VimpleCom Russia www.vimpelcom.com Vinaphone Vietnam www.vinaphone.com.vn VIP Serbia www.vipmobile.rs VIPnet Croatia www.vipnet.hr Viva Bahrain www.viva.com.bh Vivacom Bulgaria www.vivacom.bg Vivendi www.vivendi.com Vivo Brazil www.vivo.com.br Vodacom DR Congo www.vodacom.cd Vodacom Lesotho www.vodacom.co.ls Vodacom Mozambique www.vm.co.mz Vodacom South Africa www.vodacom.co.za Vodacom Tanzania www.vodacom.co.tz Vodafone Australia www.vodafone.com.au Vodafone Czech Republic www.oskarmobil.cz Vodafone Egypt www.vodafone.com.eg Vodafone Germany www.vodafone.de Vodafone Ghana www.vodafone.com.gh Vodafone Greece www.vodafone.gr Vodafone Group www.vodafone.com.qa Vodafone Hungary www.vodafone.hu Vodafone India www.vodafone.in Vodafone Ireland www.vodafone.ie Vodafone Italy www.vodafone.it Vodafone New Zealand www.vodafone.co.nz Vodafone Portugal www.vodafone.pt Vodafone Qatar www.vodafone.com.qa Vodafone Romania www.vodafone.ro Vodafone Spain www.vodafone.es Vodafone The Netherlands www.vodafone.nl Vodafone The UK 184 Website www.vodafone.co.uk © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 185. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Company Website Vodafone Turkey www.vodafone.com.tr Walmart www.walmart.com Warid Bangladesh www.waridtel.com.bd Warid Pakistan www.waridtel.com Warid Uganda www.waridtel.co.ug Wataniya (Qtel) Kuwait www.wataniya.com Wataniya Alegria (Nedjma) www.nedjma.dz Wind Hellas Greece www.wind.com.gr Wind Italy www.wind.it XL Axiata Indonesia www.xl.co.id Zain Bahrain www.bh.zain.com Zain DRC www.cd.zain.com Zain Iraq www.iq.zain.com Zain Jordan www.jo.zain.com Zain Kenya www.ke.zain.com Zain Kuwait www.kw.zain.com Zain Nigeria www.ng.zain.com Zain Saudi Arabia www.sa.zain.com Zain Sudan www.sd.zain.com Zain Tanzania www.tz.zain.com Zain Uganda www.ug.zain.com ZTE www.zte.com.cn © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 185
  • 186. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 About the Authors Nishi Verma Nishi Verma is working as a Manager with Portio Research and Evalueserve. She has worked on various projects related to telecom and media domain. She has been working with Portio Research and Evalueserve since February 2010. Sudhir Kumar Sudhir Kumar is working as a Senior Business Analyst with Portio Research and Evalueserve. He graduated from NIT Jalandhar, India. He has been working with Portio Research and Evalueserve since April 2010. Radhika Goel Radhika Goel is working as a Senior Business Analyst with Portio Research and Evalueserve. She post-graduated in Business Management from IMI, India. She has been working with Portio Research and Evalueserve since April 2010. Venu Gopal Venu Gopal is working as a Senior Business Analyst with Portio Research and Evalueserve. He graduated from ICTM, India. He has been working with Portio Research and Evalueserve since September 2010. John White John White has been Editor and contributing author for this report. John is Business Development Director for Portio Research and has over 18 years experience in the technical publishing industry. Working in the IT sector previously and in the telecoms industry for the last 11 years, John has extensive experience in the mobile sector. 186 © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 187. Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2011-2015 Also available from Portio Research Limited Portio Research Ltd is a UK-based research company focussing on the mobile space, providing reports, handbooks, directories and database products. New and Best Selling Reports in 2010 include: Mobile Applications Futures 2010-2015: Without doubt one of the hottest topics within the mobile space, the exciting worldwide mobile applications market is comprehensively assessed in this new market study. With detailed analysis and growth forecasts for mobile application users, downloads and revenues, this 121-page report examines the evolution, current state and future potential of mobile applications, and much more. This research also includes: key strategies adopted by app stores and associated business models to monetise the apps market; drivers and inhibitors in the uptake of mobile apps; supporting case studies and profiles of successful mobile apps and application stores; embedded adverts, in-app payments, the various types of mobile apps and their popularity, the value chain of mobile apps, and the important role of smartphones in the uptake of mobile apps. Looking beyond the hype surrounding mobile apps, this report reveals a worldwide market with legitimately huge potential for its various stakeholders to exploit, and which will generate revenues in excess of USD 23 billion by end-2015. Please click here for more details. LTE and the Road to 4G 2010-2015: With analysis and growth forecasts, this essential new 82-page study covers the current state of Long Term Evolution (LTE) at worldwide and regional levels, discusses the drivers and inhibitors for LTE growth, reviews the LTE network infrastructure vendor landscape, and examines the future outlook for this highly-promising 4G enabling technology. The report also includes analysis of the expected trends in technology adoption, the planned trials and deployments by MNOs worldwide, draws comparisons between LTE and WiMAX on several fronts, and much more. Please click here for more details. Strategies for Driving Mobile Data and Broadband Adoption: The latest report in our highly popular series analysing best practice go-to-market strategies for non-voice mobile services is now available to order. Loaded with valuable information that will help you understand how to develop class-leading mobile data services, this essential study examines mobile messaging, mobile broadband and mobile applications, and offers ‘best of breed’ case studies with clear and comprehensive summaries of the strategies used to effectively deliver those services to mobile consumers. This new study also features: revenue, user and technology forecasts; market sizing; key growth drivers; devices, smartphones, handsets and hardware; high speed network technologies and infrastructure deployments; worldwide, regional and company-level analysis; data plans and pricing, value chain analysis and business models; App stores and more. PLUS, buy this new report and you can also receive the previous report in this strategy series as a bonus, for FREE. Please click here for more details. If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by e-mail: info@portioresearch.com Copyright 2010. Portio Research Limited 2010 www.portioresearch.com © 2010, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 187

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