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Helping businesses raise, invest,preserve and optimize capital                                                            ...
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Alamy/Gregory Wrona                                                                                                       ...
Dave Murray                                                                                              Headlines        ...
Failed vs. completed deals, 2007-12 (Figure 2)                                                                            ...
Optimizing                                                                                                                ...
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
EY Capital Insights Q3 2012
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EY Capital Insights Q3 2012

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  1. 1. Helping businesses raise, invest,preserve and optimize capital Q3 2012 Insights Calling the shots Lead strapline Deutsche Telekom CFO Lead strapline supporting Höttges on Timotheus copy line 1 Lead strapline supporting copy line 2 collaboration, innovation and communication Metals and Mining line Two M&A: heading What the future holds One line heading Cross-border financing Poland: RisingTwo line in the east heading
  2. 2. ng Op vi ti er m es iz Pr in g Helping businesses raise, invest, preserve and optimize capital For Ernst & Young In st ve Marketing Director: Leor Franks in i ngsi Broadening g Ra (lfranks@uk.ey.com) Program Director: James Horsman (jhorsman@uk.ey.com) Consultant Editor: Richard Hall Digital Manager: Laura Hodges Design Consultants: David Hale, Henri Yan horizons and Najet Zeggai For Remark Editor: Nick Cheek Assistant Editor: Sean Lightbown Head of Design: Jenisa Patel Production Manager: Felicity James The quest for growth has seen many firms venture into new markets Contributors EMEA Director: Simon Elliott — and changing patterns in the direction of activity are becoming Contributor: Matthew Albert Capital Insights is published on behalf of established. In Q2 2012, the value of global cross-border M&A rose Ernst & Young by Remark, the publishing to its highest level since Q4 2010 while the volume of outbound M&A and events division of mergermarket Ltd, Capital Insights would like to thank the following 80 Strand, London, WC2R 0RL UK. from emerging markets jumped by 64% year on year. business leaders for their contribution to this issue www.mergermarket.com/remark And we are seeing a growing trend for corporate collaboration as more companies seek to expand while minimizing risks. This issue of Ernst & Young Capital Insights examines these two complementary business trends. Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory Cross-border: as firms look beyond their own markets for growth, About Ernst & Young we explore three countries in Eastern Europe that offer exciting Ernst & Young is a global leader in assurance, tax, opportunities (page 24). And we are very pleased to have an exclusive transaction and advisory services. Worldwide, our 152,000 people are united by our shared values interview with Poland’s former Prime Minister Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, who and an unwavering commitment to quality. We make a difference by helping our people, our clients examines the political and regulatory background for M&A in the country. and our wider communities achieve their potential. In addition, for those looking to raise capital, we investigate the Ernst & Young refers to the global organization of member firms of Ernst & Young Global alternatives for cross-border fund-raising as banks retrench (page 20). Steven Appelbaum Stephen Benzikie Brian Coulton Timotheus Höttges Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Collaboration: Deutsche Telekom CFO Timotheus Höttges tells us Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company Professor Director Global Emerging Chief Financial Officer limited by guarantee, does not provide services how partnerships with other corporates and entrepreneurs are driving to clients. For more information about our Department of Pelham Bell Pottinger Markets Strategist Deutsche Telekom organization, please visit www.ey.com. innovation and growth (page 14). Meanwhile, on page 34, we explore Management Legal & General Concordia University Investment Management About Ernst & Young’s Transaction Advisory how businesses can work with shareholders to head off “activism” and to Services How organizations manage their capital agenda channel shareholders’ passions positively. Combining the two threads of today will define their competitive position this issue, on page 31, we show you why joint ventures can be vital tools tomorrow. We work with our clients to help them make better and more informed decisions in overcoming cultural differences in cross-border M&A deals. about how they strategically manage capital and transactions in a changing world. Whether When it comes to optimizing asset portfolios, we examine how companies are refocusing and divesting in the metals and mining sector All data in Capital Insights is correct at 1 September 2012 unless otherwise stated you’re preserving, optimizing, raising or investing capital, Ernst & Young’s Transaction Advisory Services bring together a unique combination of (page 10), and regular columnist Dave Murray discusses whether now is skills, insight and experience to deliver tailored advice attuned to your needs – helping you drive the right time to diversify or rationalize your business (page 7). competitive advantage and increased shareholder returns through improved decision making across In these tough times, corporates that strive for expansion can no Mark Hutchinson Richard Lewis Michal Mravinač Liz Murrall all aspects of your capital agenda. longer afford to be standalone or purely domestic in focus. For those Chairman Head of Alternative Richard Lewis Director for UK and Director, Corporate © 2012 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. looking to raise, invest, preserve and optimize capital, I believe that Credit Ireland Governance and M&G Investments Communications CzechInvest Reporting, Investment EYG no. DE0356 crossing borders and collaborating are the way forward. I hope this issue Management Association This publication contains information in summary form and is therefore intended for general guidance of Capital Insights points you in the right direction. only. It is not intended to be a substitute for detailed research or the exercise of professional judgment. Neither EYGM Limited nor any other member of the global Ernst & Young organization can accept any responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication. On any specific matter, reference should be made to the appropriate advisor. Joachim Spill The opinions of third parties set out in this publication are not necessarily the opinions of the Transaction Advisory Services Leader, EMEIA global Ernst & Young organization or its member (Europe, Middle East, India and Africa) at Ernst & Young firms. Moreover, they should be viewed in the context Jan Krzysztof Bielecki Wojciech Pytel Christoph van der Elst Peter Williamson of the time they were expressed. If you have any feedback or questions, please email joachim@capitalinsights.info Head of the Economic Member of the Professor of Professor of International www.ey.com/Services/Transactions Council to the Polish Management Board Business Law Management For more insights, visit www.capitalinsights.info where you can find our latest ED 0113 Prime Minister Polkomtel Tilburg University Judge Business School thought leadership including our market-leading Capital Confidence Barometer.Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at Ernst & Young www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 4 | Q3 2012 | 3
  3. 3. Alamy/Gregory Wrona 24 For further insights, visit www.capitalinsights.info Insights or download our app Regulars 06 Headlines Global transactions news and how it affects you 34 07 Getty Images/Stone/Duane Rieder The real deal 31 Dave Murray discusses how optimizing portfolios by rationalizing or diversifying can aid businesses 08 Transaction insights 10 A look at the rising trend in hostile takeovers 30 The PE perspective Sachin Date explores the globalization of private Getty Images/Veta/Andrew Rich equity and its spread into developing markets 38 Getty Images/Flickr/jjguisado Moeller’s corner M&A Professor Scott Moeller explains how heeding Features shareholders’ advice can reap rich rewards 39 Further insights More insights on how to raise, invest, 10 Extracting value 24 Eastern promise 31 Dealing with difference preserve and optimize your capital Recent high-profile deals in the metals and As companies continually search for new Culture clashes have an infamous history of mining sector have hit the headlines. However, sources of growth, Poland, Ukraine and the disrupting M&A deals. How can your company a closer look at the sector reveals new trends Czech Republic could provide opportunities manage social, corporate and linguistic with big implications for others. for deal-makers. differences to ensure a successful transaction? 14 Cover story: Calling the shots 28 In pole position 34 Driving change Deutsche Telekom CFO Timotheus Höttges Former Polish Prime Minister Jan Krzysztof Shareholder activism is on the rise across explains how the company is negotiating Bielecki tells Capital Insights how his the globe. Capital Insights explores how a turbulent and heavily regulated markets, country’s growth has been driven, and what potential investor revolt can be turned into while also looking for new opportunities. it plans to do to stay ahead of the pack. constructive stakeholder collaboration.1 20 Withdrawal symptoms Ernst & Young – recognized by With banks reining in their cross-border# mergermarket as top of the European league tables for accountancy advice lending activity, what alternatives are out on transactions in calendar year 2011* there for corporates looking to raise capital *As run on 11 January 2012 for their businesses?Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at Ernst & Young www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 4 | Q3 2012 | 5
  4. 4. Dave Murray Headlines The real deal Getting smart on start-ups East side story Deals for technology start-ups are very much to Corporates and private equity (PE) alike are Making or the fore at the moment. In May, computer firm waking up to the potential of the Central and Oracle bought social-media marketing business Eastern Europe (CEE) region. In August, NYSE- Vitrue for US$300m. Two months later, in July, listed WNS Holdings, a global business services it acquired social marketing company Involver provider, opened a new delivery centre in breaking and network vendor Xsigo for undisclosed Gdynia, Poland, to service clients across Europe amounts in separate deals. Meanwhile, in and Asia. Meanwhile, earlier this year, Chinese the same month, Google bought marketing Deputy Premier Li Keqiang signed deals worth start-up Wildfire for a reported US$250m. over US$16b in Russia and Hungary. Also from A July 2012 survey from print services com- China, shipping giant COSCO has shown interest pany RR Donnelley also highlighted the focus A comeback for IPOs? in the Croatian port of Rijeka (pictured below). on buying tech start-ups. Respondents noted While certain high-profile initial public offerings PE activity is also on the rise. Figures released that the “stratospheric valuations” of relatively (IPOs) have underperformed of late, it appears in August from the Emerging Markets Private young companies mean “both financial and that companies are still looking to go public as Equity Association show that PE fund-raising strategic buyers are looking to buy early in a key way to raise capital. IPO activity world- in CEE hit US$2.6b in H1 2012, nearly double hope of a big payday.” wide increased in Q2 2012, according to a new the total for 2011. Deal-makers should look When it comes to optimizing asset portfolios, corporates can choose a strategy Ernst & Young report. The latest Global IPO Update shows that 206 deals raised US$41.8b eastward, with Poland a stand-out destination. For more on Eastern Europe, see page 24. of rationalization or diversification, but knowing which way to turn can be tricky in the second quarter, a respective 5% and A 141% increase on Q1 2012. Japan is seeing a ny personal finance advisor will grows, businesses may want more control climate, finding a buyer, at the right price, rash of IPO activity — particularly from its air- tell you that the key to limiting over their supplier base. This could de-risk can be tough. Despite the fact that large lines. In July, All Nippon Airways (ANA) raised investment risk is diversification. operations, with companies buying suppliers companies are sitting on an estimated around US$2.1b while Japan Airlines (JAL) is Sadly, for corporates, it’s not and adding them to the core business. In US$7.8t, according to Standard & Poor’s, aiming to relist on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in that simple. With growth in many developed addition, companies may diversify to gain bidders are unwilling to acquire assets at a a bid to generate US$8.5b. However, compa- markets stagnating, companies need to entry to growing markets. This has been premium if they feel they can buy the targetcl Getty Images/Bloomberg/Jason Alden tc Getty Images/Stephen Brashear cr Shutterstock/Krkr nies need to be fully prepared before they float. ask themselves whether now is the time to the case with PepsiCo and the Campbell for a bargain price. And sellers do not want The next issue of Capital Insights will carry an rationalize or diversify their businesses. Soup Company, which have recently bought to be seen by key stakeholders as shedding in-depth investigation of IPO readiness. At present, the trend seems to be healthy options brands to expand their reach. assets in what can amount to a ‘fire sale’. very sector specific. In oil and gas, for As for those looking to refocus, the Those considering diversification need example, we’ve seen rationalization. Major emphasis should be on core competencies to find the right assets, get the best value PE assets hit new record Payback time for investors organizations such as Shell and ExxonMobil and divesting those areas that are giving and work on a solid integration plan. Yet, Assets managed by the private equity (PE) It’s a bumper time for shareholder dividends. are divesting downstream operations in lower-than-average returns, so they traditionally, a diversified business may suffer A call to action industry have hit new heights. They reached Firms worldwide are paying out record amounts order to reinvest in core services such as can reinvest in higher-returning assets. in the markets. Stock markets historically New research has identified the top 10 US$3t in value last year, according to Preqin. in dividends, according to new data. Analysis exploration and oil field services. Corporates are looking at the relative discount conglomerates while rewarding obstacles that those in the telecommunications The data firm also said that the number of by share registration services provider Capita However, we have seen a move toward profitability of the business, even if it means those with a tighter focus. However, data from industry need to overcome. A report from assets managed by the industry grew 9% from Registrars has revealed that UK companies re- diversification in the food and beverage selling off a key part of the company. Dutch the Leipzig Graduate School of Management Ernst & Young has revealed that the inability December 2010 to December 2011. warded shareholders with payouts worth £22.6b sectors as companies try to gain rapid firm CSM, the world’s largest supplier to has shown that this “conglomerate discount” to capitalize on new connectivity tools, uncer- Bronwyn Williams, Preqin’s Manager of Perfor- (US$36b) between April and June this year, growth outside of their core business and bakeries, announced in May that it would is shrinking. Between 2008 and 2009, the tainty on new-market regulation and unclear mance Data, said the figures indicate that PE beating the £22b (US$35b) record for the same markets. Kellogg is a prime example of this divest its larger bakeries businesses to discount significantly decreased across the security responsibility to customers are among “continues to be attractive,” and that period in 2000. In the US, Standard & Poor’s trend. In February, the breakfast cereal giant concentrate on its more profitable, yet US and UK. While in Asia, conglomerates now the 10 key challenges facing communications “faith remains that PE fund managers can still Dow Jones indices said that net dividend rises bought the Pringles chip brand from Procter smaller, bio-ingredients business. command a market premium. companies. Other sectors should also take deliver these returns.” Though the figures are totaled an all-time high of US$12b in Q2 2012. & Gamble for US$2.7b. Kellogg viewed this However, before companies embark on Firms should undergo a thorough health note as The top 10 risks in telecommunications positive, PE is continuing to search for new Meanwhile, in Russia, new legislation coming into acquisition as a way to drive global growth either strategy, they need to be aware of check before deciding which strategy to take. 2012 survey highlights a lack of organizational sources of growth in secondary markets. force at the end of the year will compel firms for its predominantly US snack business the challenges. When businesses start to With the competition for growth intensifying, flexibility and poor M&A and partnership strate- This is demonstrated by the tripling of PE to up their mandatory dividend distribution level rather than go through the pain of growing rationalize, they should get assets targeted when it comes to optimizing capital, gies as key pitfalls — risks which can cut across investments in Africa to US$3b in 2011, to 25% of earnings. It would seem that, at a time their own operations organically in the same for divestment into a saleable state. These businesses need to make the right move. all business areas. For a full copy of the report, according to Mthuli Ncube, Chief Economist when companies are sitting on US$7.8t, markets they sell cereals. assets are often intertwined, so management Dave Murray is EMEIA Markets Leader, visit www.capitalinsights.info. And for an of the African Development Bank. For more according to Standard & Poor’s, keeping inves- A company may look at diversifying in needs to consider the costs of separation. Transaction Advisory Services, Ernst & Young. exclusive interview with Deutsche Telekom on PE manoeuvres in emerging markets, tors happy is all important. For more on share- order to de-risk the business or to increase Structurally, the company may need to For further insight, please email CFO Timotheus Höttges, see page 14. see page 30. holder engagement, see pages 34 and 38. growth. For example, as supply chain risk carve the business out. And in the current dave@capitalinsights.info Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at Ernst & Young www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 4 | Q3 2012 | 7
  5. 5. Failed vs. completed deals, 2007-12 (Figure 2) y2007 2007 41% 59% y2008 2008 42% 58% Completed Transaction y2009 Failed 2009 52% 48% y2010 2010 51% 49% y2011 2011 52% 48% y2012 2012 33% 67% 0 20 40 60 80 100 insights Percentage of deals Failed vs. completed deals in the top five countries for hostile takeovers, 2 5 2007-12 (Figure 3) 9 HTs can be affected by regional factors. Australia UK Norway 14 These include takeover codes and Key facts and figures from the world of M&A. This issue: Hostile takeovers regulations, which differ substantially 22 from country to country. In the UK, for Hostile takeover deals, 2007-12 (Figure 1) example, the Takeover Panel reformed its rules last year making HTs more difficult. 31 40 15 The figure, right, shows that, over the 35 12 last five years, the UK and Norway Number of deals have completion rates comfortably 9 30 above the halfway mark, with 61% 6 and 71% respectively. In Canada, 25 the completion rate for 39 HTs Canada USA Number of deals 3 12 since 2007 is just 35%. Corporates 16 20 0 Q1 Q2 contemplating HTs therefore need not 15 2012 2012 only to look at the prospective target 22 but also the regulatory framework of 10 the country involved. 5 Key 3 7 Completed Deals 0 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 Failed Deals 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 While the volume and value of overall global M&A may HTs may be on the rise, but the proportion of failed deals Percentage of hostile takeovers completed in top five hostile takeover-prone Across the top five HT-prone industries, have fallen in H1 2012, hostile takeovers (HT) are making is also increasing. From 2009-2011, the number of completed industries, 2007-2012 (Figure 4) 169 HTs have been attempted since 2007. a comeback. Hostile bid volumes, in which the bidder hostile deals outweighed failed ones; however, so far in 2012, 70 The difference in deal completion is not bypasses the target company’s board and appeals directly a bid of this nature is twice as likely to fail as it is to succeed as varied as with countries (see figure 3), to shareholders, have risen by 54% in H1 2012 year on (see figure 2 for more details). 65 although the consumer sector stands out. year, according to mergermarket (see figure 1). In Q2 2012, Therefore, while these bids may be an attractive This is the only sector in the top five that 60 bids also almost doubled quarter on quarter from 7 to proposition for corporate bidders and shareholders alike, both has witnessed more completed HTs than Percentage of completed deals 13 — the fastest rate of increase since 2008. Recent examples should take into account that being ready for a failure is just as 55 failed ones since 2007, with 65% proving include GlaxoSmithKline’s US$3.6b takeover of Human important as preparing for completion. Meanwhile, targets successful. Of all the sectors, the energy, Genome Sciences. that are unwilling to be bought out can also take some heart 50 mining and utilities industry has had the r all images iStock and Shutterstock Why is this happening? With the world’s top companies from this data. most HT bids, with 81 attempted takeovers, 45 sitting on some US$7.8t, according to Standard & Poor’s, The failure rate of HTs may also be affected by factors such yet it had a completion rate of only 44%. firms are certainly not short of capital, and with stock as geography and industry. Since 2007, less than a third (30%) The figures are good news for those in the 40 markets depressing some targets’ values, this could of the 54 HTs in the US have ended in completion. For more consumer sector attempting HTs. However,Source: mergermarket incentivize bidders to acquire targets at a bargain country and sector specific data, see figures 3 and 4. for those in the other top four sectors, the 35 price — a feature of many hostile bids. So, could this rise in HTs signal an upswing in M&A activity data shows that HTs are not easy to bring This action is often driven by the bidder’s shareholders in general? Only time will tell. But with so much money on 30 to a successful conclusion, so corporates who are now demanding that companies use surplus capital to companies’ balance sheets and shareholders agitating for Consumer Financial Services Industrials Energy, Mining TMT in these sectors need to think particularly drive growth (for more on shareholder activism, see page 34). greater value, the signs are certainly there. & Chemicals & Utilities carefully before going hostile. Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at Ernst & Young www.capitalinsights.info | Issue 4 | Q3 2012 | 9
  6. 6. Optimizing Investing Extracting value Some recent high-profile metals and mining deals may have grabbed headlines, but closer scrutiny reveals new However, it would be wrong to suggest that raw materials suppliers are standing at a cliff edge. Peter Williamson, Professor of International Management at Cambridge University’s Judge Business School, has studied China’s investment in infrastructure. He has compared China’s current spending with that of countries such as Germany and Japan when their economies were at a similar stage, and he sees no sign of the bubble bursting. Top metals and mining M&A deals (2012) Completion JAN 2012 FEB 2012 Target Nord Gold European Goldfields Buyer Severstal Eldorado Gold Deal value US$2.7b US$2.3b trends that have big implications for other corporates Nevertheless, the prospect of even a moderate softening MAR in global prices looks set to have a tangible impact on the 2012 Quandra FNX KGHM Polska Miedz US$2.2b mining sector. For one thing, just the idea of lower demand, T he well-documented negotiations between strategic acquisitions at a time when valuations are low. even in the short term, could scare the markets and put Source: mergermarket commodities trader Glencore and diversified Meanwhile, the same conditions are also seen as driving pressure on share prices. “By its nature, the industry tends mining group Xstrata have overshadowed much divestment by businesses seeking to optimize portfolios. to work to very long-term horizons,” says Downham. “But of the M&A activity in the metals and mining But if the fiery economic backdrop has created an appetite in contrast, the markets have very short-term horizons.” industry during 2012. Any deal aimed at creating a business for deal-making, the level of activity is being tempered by Concern in the markets is borne out by a fall of around with a market value of around US$90b will dominate market uncertainty. 14.4% in the FTSE Mining Index between January and the headlines. August this year, as investors factored in falling metals But there has been volatile M&A activity and interest A changing landscape prices and rising costs. elsewhere in the metals and mining sector. Figures from The last few months have seen a marked change in the global Clearly, falling prices put pressure on margins. According Ernst & Young’s Mergers, acquisitions and capital raising in the economic landscape. Despite an unappealing patchwork of to Downham, such pressure is prompting companies to look mining and metals sector — 1H 2012 report show a slowing below-par growth, stagnation and contraction across Europe at their portfolios and consider ways and means to optimize in activity, with the number of deals in H1 2012 falling to and a subdued recovery in the US, raw materials providers assets, notably through divestment. “If you can realize value 470 from 580 last year, while the value of deals was just over could rely on growing demand from emerging markets to from the sale of non-core assets, then in the current climate US$55b — 38% down on H1 2011’s value. However, the first keep shareholders happy. So, when the second quarter that may be a sensible thing to do.” three months of 2012 saw mining companies completing no figures revealed that China’s growth had slowed to fewer than 10 deals with a value of US$1b or more, including 7.6% from 8.1% in the first three months of the year, Getting to the core Canada’s Pan American Silver Corp’s US$1.49b acquisition of worry increased. In July, Brazilian iron ore miner Vale sold its European exploration company Minefinders in March. The concern is rooted in hard numbers. For instance, in manganese business to Glencore for US$160m, while According to Lee Downham, Ernst & Young’s Global June of this year, Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Australian-based BHP Billiton announced in May that it Mining and Metals Transaction Leader, there is a continuing Economics estimated that iron ore prices would average planned to optimize and simplify its portfolio further by appetite for deal-making, despite volatile markets and US$136 a metric ton in 2012 compared with US$153 in selling its Ekati diamond mine. ongoing economic uncertainty. “There is a strong pipeline,” 2011. Shipments from the country were also expected to fall Moves to focus on core businesses are nothing new, he says. “Miners are increasingly unwilling to sit out the to 479m tons, from March’s estimate of 493m. Slower growth according to Abby Ghobadian, Professor of Leadership volatility and are prepared to act opportunistically and in China was seen as the main contributor to the decline. Studies at Henley Business School. He cites the example strategically. Robust long-term demand fundamentals and According to a briefing published by Legal & General of Anglo American which, in 2009, created a new strong balance sheets will drive deal activity through 2012.” Investment Management (LGIM) earlier this year, growth group structure arched across seven key commodities As Downham observes, the logic underpinning the in these countries has been driven by capital investment, businesses — namely platinum, copper, nickel, proposed Glencore-Xstrata merger arguably says little about fuelled by a high level of savings at home. As these economies metallurgical coal, iron, thermal coal and diamonds. In the factors driving deals elsewhere in the sector. “It’s a mature and domestic consumption rises, investment will fall tandem with the group restructuring, Anglo set about unique transaction with characteristics that are unlikely to be back, slowing the rate of growth. This trend will have major a US$3.3b divestment program that saw the company replicated in other deals and also brings together a company implications for commodities suppliers. exiting its paper and packaging business and selling a with significant marketing activities with a major diversified As LGIM strategist Brian Coulton observed: “The big range of mining assets.Getty Images/Flickr/jjguisado producer,” he says. “I don’t think we’ll know for some time change over the next 10 years will be a sharp decline in So how are the diversified mining giants defining which whether the deal will have a wider impact on the thinking of investment growth. In the last decade, Chinese and Indian assets are core and non-core? “The big issue is scalability,” mining and metals companies.” consumers have foregone a rising share of income to fund says Downham. “If you look at recent announcements, Of more immediate concern is the state of the global growth. But, in the next decade, this pattern is likely to both BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have put their diamond economy and the perennial issue of securing sources of be reversed. If the last decade was the story of BRICS as operations up for strategic review, neither of which are supply. On the buy side, volatile markets and depressed producers, the next decade will be the story of BRICS as considered to have the same scalability as, say, copper share prices are allowing mining companies to make consumers. The effects will be felt across the globe.” or iron ore.” Capital Insights from the Transaction Advisory Services practice at Ernst & Young 11

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