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Capital budgeting

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  • 1. Capital Budgeting Decision Criteria
  • 2. Capital Budgeting: the process of planning for purchases of long- term assets.• example:Suppose our firm must decide whether to purchase a new plastic molding machine for $125,000. How do we decide?• Will the machine be profitable?• Will our firm earn a high rate of return on the investment?
  • 3. Decision-making Criteria in Capital Budgeting How do we decide if a capital investment project should be accepted or rejected?
  • 4. Decision-making Criteria in Capital Budgeting• The Ideal Evaluation Method should:a) include all cash flows that occur during the life of the project,b) consider the time value of money,c) incorporate the required rate of return on the project.
  • 5. Payback Period• How long will it take for the project to generate enough cash to pay for itself?
  • 6. Payback Period • How long will it take for the project to generate enough cash to pay for itself?(500) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
  • 7. Payback Period • How long will it take for the project to generate enough cash to pay for itself?(500) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Payback period = 3.33 years.
  • 8. Payback Period• Is a 3.33 year payback period good?• Is it acceptable?• Firms that use this method will compare the payback calculation to some standard set by the firm.• If our senior management had set a cut- off of 5 years for projects like ours, what would be our decision?• Accept the project.
  • 9. Drawbacks of Payback Period• Firm cutoffs are subjective.• Does not consider time value of money.• Does not consider any required rate of return.• Does not consider all of the project’s cash flows.
  • 10. Drawbacks of Payback Period • Does not consider all of the project’s cash flows.(500) 150 150 150 150 150 (300) 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 • Consider this cash flow stream!
  • 11. Drawbacks of Payback Period • Does not consider all of the project’s cash flows.(500) 150 150 150 150 150 (300) 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 • This project is clearly unprofitable, but we would accept it based on a 4- year payback criterion!
  • 12. Discounted Payback• Discounts the cash flows at the firm’s required rate of return.• Payback period is calculated using these discounted net cash flows.Problems:• Cutoffs are still subjective.• Still does not examine all cash flows.
  • 13. Discounted Payback (500) 250 250 250 250 250 0 1 2 3 4 5 DiscountedYear Cash Flow CF (14%)0 -500 -500.001 250 219.30
  • 14. Discounted Payback (500) 250 250 250 250 250 0 1 2 3 4 5 DiscountedYear Cash Flow CF (14%)0 -500 -500.001 250 219.30 1 year 280.70
  • 15. Discounted Payback (500) 250 250 250 250 250 0 1 2 3 4 5 DiscountedYear Cash Flow CF (14%)0 -500 -500.001 250 219.30 1 year 280.702 250 192.37
  • 16. Discounted Payback (500) 250 250 250 250 250 0 1 2 3 4 5 DiscountedYear Cash Flow CF (14%)0 -500 -500.001 250 219.30 1 year 280.702 250 192.37 2 years 88.33
  • 17. Discounted Payback (500) 250 250 250 250 250 0 1 2 3 4 5 DiscountedYear Cash Flow CF (14%)0 -500 -500.001 250 219.30 1 year 280.702 250 192.37 2 years 88.333 250 168.74
  • 18. Discounted Payback (500) 250 250 250 250 250 0 1 2 3 4 5 DiscountedYear Cash Flow CF (14%)0 -500 -500.001 250 219.30 1 year 280.702 250 192.37 2 years 88.333 250 168.74 .52 years
  • 19. Discounted Payback (500) 250 250 250 250 250 0 1 2 3 4 5 DiscountedYear Cash Flow CF (14%) The Discounted0 -500 Payback-500.001 250 219.30 1 year is 2.52 years 280.702 250 192.37 2 years 88.333 250 168.74 .52 years
  • 20. Other Methods1) Net Present Value (NPV)2) Profitability Index (PI)3) Internal Rate of Return (IRR)Each of these decision-making criteria:• Examines all net cash flows,• Considers the time value of money, and• Considers the required rate of return.
  • 21. Net Present Value• NPV = the total PV of the annual net cash flows - the initial outlay. n Σ FCFtNPV = - IO (1 + k) t t=1
  • 22. Net Present Value• Decision Rule:• If NPV is positive, accept.• If NPV is negative, reject.
  • 23. NPV Example• Suppose we are considering a capital investment that costs $250,000 and provides annual net cash flows of $100,000 for five years. The firm’s required rate of return is 15%.
  • 24. NPV Example • Suppose we are considering a capital investment that costs $250,000 and provides annual net cash flows of $100,000 for five years. The firm’s required rate of return is 15%.(250,000) 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 25. Net Present Value (NPV)NPV is just the PV of the annual cash flows minus the initial outflow.Using TVM:P/Y = 1 N = 5 I = 15PMT = 100,000 PV of cash flows = $335,216 - Initial outflow: ($250,000) = Net PV $85,216
  • 26. Profitability Index
  • 27. Profitability Index n Σ FCFtNPV = t - IO (1 + k) t=1
  • 28. Profitability Index n Σ FCFtNPV = t - IO (1 + k) t=1 n Σ FCFtPI = IO (1 + k) t t=1
  • 29. Profitability Index• Decision Rule:• If PI is greater than or equal to 1, accept.• If PI is less than 1, reject.
  • 30. Internal Rate of Return (IRR)• IRR: the return on the firm’s invested capital. IRR is simply the rate of return that the firm earns on its capital budgeting projects.
  • 31. Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
  • 32. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) n Σ FCFtNPV = - IO (1 + k) t t=1
  • 33. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) n Σ FCFtNPV = - IO (1 + k) t t=1 n FCFtIRR: Σ t=1 (1 + IRR) t = IO
  • 34. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) n FCFt IRR: Σt=1 (1 + IRR) t = IO• IRR is the rate of return that makes the PV of the cash flows equal to the initial outlay.• This looks very similar to our Yield to Maturity formula for bonds. In fact, YTM
  • 35. Calculating IRR • Looking again at our problem: • The IRR is the discount rate that makes the PV of the projected cash flows equal to the initial outlay.(250,000) 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 100,000 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 36. IRR with your Calculator• IRR is easy to find with your financial calculator.• Just enter the cash flows as you did with the NPV problem and solve for IRR.• You should get IRR = 28.65%!
  • 37. IRR• Decision Rule:• If IRR is greater than or equal to the required rate of return, accept.• If IRR is less than the required rate of return, reject.
  • 38. • IRR is a good decision-making tool as long as cash flows are conventional. (- + + + + +)• Problem: If there are multiple sign changes in the cash flow stream, we could get multiple IRRs. (- + + - + +)
  • 39. • IRR is a good decision-making tool as long as cash flows are conventional. (- + + + + +) • Problem: If there are multiple sign changes in the cash flow stream, we could get multiple IRRs. (- + + - + +)(500) 200 100 (200) 400 300 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 40. • IRR is a good decision-making tool as long as cash flows are conventional. (- + + + + +) • Problem: If there are multiple sign changes in the cash flow stream, we could get multiple IRRs. (- + + - + +) 1(500) 200 100 (200) 400 300 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 41. • IRR is a good decision-making tool as long as cash flows are conventional. (- + + + + +) • Problem: If there are multiple sign changes in the cash flow stream, we could get multiple IRRs. (- + + - + +) 1 2(500) 200 100 (200) 400 300 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 42. • IRR is a good decision-making tool as long as cash flows are conventional. (- + + + + +) • Problem: If there are multiple sign changes in the cash flow stream, we could get multiple IRRs. (- + + - + +) 1 2 3(500) 200 100 (200) 400 300 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 43. Summary Problem • Enter the cash flows only once. • Find the IRR. • Using a discount rate of 15%, find NPV. • Add back IO and divide by IO to get PI.(900) 300 400 400 500 600 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 44. Summary Problem • IRR = 34.37%. • Using a discount rate of 15%, NPV = $510.52. • PI = 1.57.(900) 300 400 400 500 600 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 45. Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR)• IRR assumes that all cash flows are reinvested at the IRR.• MIRR provides a rate of return measure that assumes cash flows are reinvested at the required rate of return.
  • 46. MIRR Steps:• Calculate the PV of the cash outflows. – Using the required rate of return.• Calculate the FV of the cash inflows at the last year of the project’s time line. This is called the terminal value (TV). – Using the required rate of return.• MIRR: the discount rate that equates the PV of the cash outflows with the PV of the terminal value, ie, that makes:• PVoutflows = PVinflows
  • 47. MIRR • Using our time line and a 15% rate: • PV outflows = (900) • FV inflows (at the end of year 5) = 2,837. • MIRR: FV = 2837, PV = (900), N = 5 • solve: I = 25.81%.(900) 300 400 400 500 600 0 1 2 3 4 5
  • 48. MIRR• Using our time line and a 15% rate:• PV outflows = (900)• FV inflows (at the end of year 5) = 2,837.• MIRR: FV = 2837, PV = (900), N = 5• solve: I = 25.81%.• Conclusion: The project’s IRR of 34.37%, assumes that cash flows are reinvested at 34.37%.
  • 49. MIRR• Using our time line and a 15% rate:• PV outflows = (900)• FV inflows (at the end of year 5) = 2,837.• MIRR: FV = 2837, PV = (900), N = 5• solve: I = 25.81%.• Conclusion: The project’s IRR of 34.37%, assumes that cash flows are reinvested at 34.37%.• Assuming a reinvestment rate of 15%, the project’s MIRR is 25.81%.