Kaihan AceTech presentation April 2014

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Speech I gave to a group of about 80 technology CEOs in Whistler in April 2014.

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Kaihan AceTech presentation April 2014

  1. 1.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net April 11, 2014 Kaihan Krippendorff www.kaihan.net
  2. 2.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  3. 3.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  4. 4.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  5. 5.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  6. 6.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Mohammad Yunus
  7. 7.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ratan Tata
  8. 8.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  9. 9.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Thomas Edison
  10. 10.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ray Kroc
  11. 11.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Betsy Johnson
  12. 12.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Richard Branson Oprah Winfrey Elizabeth Arden Dhirubhai Ambani Bill Gates Charles Revson Henry Ford Sōichirō Honda
  13. 13.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Martin Luther King, Jr. Mother Teresa Mahatma Gandhi Nelson Mandela Rosa Parks Mohammad Yunus Margaret Thatcher Benjamin Franklin
  14. 14.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Elon Musk CEO, Tesla Motors Tom Adams CEO, Rosetta Stone Mark Zuckerberg CEO, Facebook Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post Robert Keane CEO, Vistaprint Wayne Gattinella CEO, WebMD Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab Marissa Mayer CEO, Yahoo Larry Page CEO, Google Mark Vadon Founder, Blue Nile Josh Linkner Founder, ePrize Ann Hand CEO, Project Frog Susan Lyne CEO, Gilt Groupe Cory Booker Mayor, Newark, NJ, USA Jeff Bezos Founder, Amazon.com
  15. 15.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Some Victims
  16. 16.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 2000 1. GE 2. Microsoft 3. Dell 4. Cisco 5. Wal-Mart 2005 1. Dell 2. GE 3. Starbucks* 4. Wal-Mart 5. Southwest A.* 2010 1. Apple* 2. Google* 3. Berkshire H.* 4. J&J* 5. Amazon* Most Admired Companies Replaced Source: Fortune Magazine, Most Admired Companies
  17. 17.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Fortune 500 Survival is Falling Source: “What Does Fortune 500 Turnover Mean?” Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman Ewing Marion; Kauffman Foundation, June 2012
  18. 18.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net S&P Lifespan Shortening
  19. 19.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Mohandas Gandhi
  20. 20.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not consider, and will not respond effectively to. The 4th Option®
  21. 21.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 2 Go home Wait Cross
  22. 22.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  23. 23.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Outthinkers are Outliers “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin President, Royal Society, circa 1895 “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” Harry M. Warner, CEO of Warner Brothers Pictures, circa 1927 “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Ken Olsen President , Digital Equipment Corporation,1977 “There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom.” Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923 “The phonograph … is not of any commercial value.” Thomas Alva Edison (Inventor of the Phonograph), circa 1880
  24. 24.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  25. 25.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  26. 26.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net URBN Revenue History $ Millions Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF 350 425 550 830 1,090 1,230 1,510 1,840 1,940 2,270 2,470 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  27. 27.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net URBN Results 5 5 13 Industry ANF** URBN Growth 5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%) 14 12 20 Profitability 5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%) * 5 years average as of October 2013 ** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization Source: Reuters
  28. 28.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net College students only Used clothing Artists not managers in charge Manager freedom Every store different …
  29. 29.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Urban Outfitters – Differentiation along 5 of 8 Ps Position Process Physical experience People PlaceProduct PromotionPrice
  30. 30.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Position Process Physical experience People PlaceProduct PromotionPrice The 8Ps – Simple but Powerful Analyze and compare competitors Map your own points of differentiation – how many do you have? How strong? Look at industry pattern…is everybody optimizing the same Ps? Where is nobody looking? Can you turn “bad into good”?
  31. 31.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Objectives Define our vision and goals; our challenges Imagine Choose different leverage points Dissect Generate more potential strategies Expand Choose disruptive strategies Analyze Decide how to communicate strategy Sell The IDEAS Framework
  32. 32.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Alexandra Kosteniuk How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?”
  33. 33.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory Consciousness Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer
  34. 34.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Relative number of narratives chess players recognize: Grand master Master Expert
  35. 35.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Europe & Americas – Fairy tales Japan – Koan India – Puranas China – 36 stratagems
  36. 36.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Identifying Outthinkers Value creation (TRS) Revenue growth (CAGR) (EBITDA) Profit margin
  37. 37.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Core Research
  38. 38.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  39. 39.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  40. 40.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22 “I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can.” Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview)
  41. 41.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  42. 42.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  43. 43.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  44. 44.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Identify and move early to the next battleground. Where is the next battleground? - Technological trends? - Social shifts? - Geographies? - Buying patterns? - Needs? 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground
  45. 45.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  46. 46.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  47. 47.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  48. 48.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  49. 49.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  50. 50.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  51. 51.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  52. 52.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  53. 53.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  54. 54.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power. Who would we like to coordinate? - Customers - Experts - Employees - Real estate - Regulators - Competitors - Driveways - … Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  55. 55.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  56. 56.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a Two-Front Battle7
  57. 57.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a Two-Front Battle7
  58. 58.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Cloud providers Cloud services Retail “There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.” - Jeff Bezos
  59. 59.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Shoes Shoes Customer service
  60. 60.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Traditional software SoftwareBrokerage
  61. 61.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a two-front battle7 Project your unique capability into a new area. What is your unique advantage/ capability? Into what new area could you project this?
  62. 62.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  63. 63.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Environment Employees Community Govern- ment / country Share- holders Customers Corporation 33 Be Good
  64. 64.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  65. 65.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  66. 66.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  67. 67.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The Holstee Manifesto
  68. 68.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Adopt a strategy that benefits others. How can you create strategic power by pursuing a “good” strategy? Be good33
  69. 69.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  70. 70.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  71. 71.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32 Julie Pickens
  72. 72.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ingvar Kamprad Create Something Out of Nothing32
  73. 73.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  74. 74.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  75. 75.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Add a new piece the board. What would you like to create/ add to the game? - New categories? - New occasions or needs? - New customers? - New suppliers? - New distributors? - New regulations? Create something out of nothing32
  76. 76.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net
  77. 77.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good How can you project into a new sector? What can you create? Where is the next battleground? Who could you coordinate? How can you be good?
  78. 78.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net “Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.” Napoleon Bonaparte
  79. 79.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net “It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.” - Albert Einstein
  80. 80.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Make the impossible possible Don’t build handsets Risk of no WiFi Customer Service too costly “Each of these looked like show stoppers” Motorola Early adopters No one provides service David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com
  81. 81.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  82. 82.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  83. 83.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  84. 84.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Mohammad Yunus
  85. 85.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ratan Tata
  86. 86.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  87. 87.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Thomas Edison
  88. 88.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ray Kroc
  89. 89.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Betsy Johnson
  90. 90.  2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net kaihan@outthinker.com www.outthinker.com www.kaihan.net @kaihan • Work out your Fourth Option® • Email me to get presentation • Sign up for newsletter • Access tools and videos • Contact us for more support

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