Innovating in Financial Services - Broadridge

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Speech for Broadridge clients on innovation in financial services.

Speech for Broadridge clients on innovation in financial services.

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  • Outthinkers see these strategic options others don’t see. For example…
  • Outthinkers see these strategic options others don’t see. For example…
  • If we choose a starting year and an initial slate of companies in the Fortune 500 for that year, we can see at each successive year the number of original companies that still remain. Due to the constant change in the economy, this will necessarily decline. By choosing different starting years and plotting the curves of the decline from year to year, we can see how the pace of this turnover has quickened. For example, the list of Fortune 500 companies in 1955 (black curve) declines far more slowly than the list beginning in 1975 (red curve).
  • Innovations come taking time to imagine creating things that people don’t believe are possible. defying what is out of are ordinary ways.Even the last one – Edison calling his own invention of having no commercial value shows that we don’t even believe in our OWN ability to create disruptive, innovative ideas. We resort back – like our classically trained business ways tell us – to the single right plan, the best practice, to the way that others are doing.
  • Insight 1: 8Ps not 1. Say "in comparison to" one big idea/ a big bet … no … it is actually lots of Fourth Options. 6 min exercise using 8Ps tool. Transition: so then the Q is HOW do we come up with fourth options?
  • Insight 1: 8Ps not 1. Say "in comparison to" one big idea/ a big bet … no … it is actually lots of Fourth Options. 6 min exercise using 8Ps tool. Transition: so then the Q is HOW do we come up with fourth options?
  • Chess Champion Alexandra Kosteniuk is known for performing something of a media stunt. She lines up 15 chessboards and invites 15 players to sit in front of each one. They sit and look at the chess boards while she stands and moves from one to the next. When she has played her first move for each of the 15 games, she starts over with the first one and makes her second move. This gives each of her opponents a lot of time to think about their next move, whereas she only has a few seconds. She usually wins all of her matches. She is able to look at the board and know the winning move even though her opponent cannot see the move. She is using her repertoire for strategic framing to perform a mathematical trick; she sees a pattern in how the other is playing the game and says: “I’ve seen this before, and the way to win is to…”What enables some innovative thinkers to see solutions that others overlook? The answer is that they overcome a mathematical problem by deploying the mental trick. Studies of expertise and expert performance give us insight into how they do this. If you are playing a game that requires onlythat you consider five options, you can easily think through those options. If you are playing a more complex game, however, one in which you must consider 30 or 100 possible options, you run out of short-term working memory capacity, and your mind then starts hiding options from you. It simply doesn’t have the capacity to show them all. Experts are able to implement more complex strategies by applying a “chunking” process. While a novice might think about moving a specific piece to a specific space on the chess board, his expert opponent is thinking about applying higher order approach. Experts play with more higher order patterns or “strategic narratives” than novices do. To enable you and your team to see options that your competition does not see, you also want to play with the larger and more diverse repertoire of patterns. This means your ability to see strategic options that others don’t see has little to do with your innate intelligence or how creative you are. It is simply a function of the number and variety of frames or narratives you bring to the game.
  • Most humans are able to retain between five and nine items in their short-term working memory. If you go to a grocery store, for example, and only have to buy five things, you may not need a grocery list. But if you have to buy 15 things and do not write a list, you’re probably going to forget something. We can really only remember 7 items at a time, +/-2. That’s why phone numbers were originally (before area codes) seven digits. We remember them in three basic ways. Let me give you a number to remember: 60952. Now, how many of you are repeating that number in your head: 60952, 60952…?That’s using the phonetic loop method. Now, how many of you are picturing the number in your head? For those, you are using the visuospecial sketchpad method. Now, how about if I asked you to remember the number 2468?You would probably be using another method; in fact if I wanted to add a number to that combination, you could probably anticipate what that number would be, which is?This we call the episodic buffer; or strategic narratives. It’s about the story. Seeing the number as a story, you say to yourself “I’ve seen this before” and record it as such, even anticipating what will come next!
  • Research into this expertise and expert performance has actually been measured. Master chess players recognize twice as many patterns as when they took up the game; grand masters are able to recognize 10 times as many.For us, it’s a matter of how many strategic narratives can we bring to the game to find our fourth option and strategic differentiators.
  • When we hear “Trojan Horse”, we don’t just see a horse but know the story that comes with it. Those stories in America & Europe are known as “fairy tales”, in Japan, India other names. Kaihan Krippendorff’s research uses the “36 Stratagems” as the foundation of these stories or narratives. For the past 12 years, he has been working with this set of “strategic narratives” found in an ancient Chinese text called the 36 Stratagems. This collection of strategic metaphors was written sometime between 500 and 1500 A.D. Nobody knows the author of the stratagems. They were developed over a period of 1000 years through the process of oral tradition. Our research into the competitive dynamics of corporate competition indicates that the stratagems represent a complete vocabulary for describing and managing competition.
  • Space X was founded in 2002. Kaihan interviewed him one year after the founding. From Wikipedia: Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, or SpaceX, is a space transport company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 by former PayPal entrepreneur Elon Musk. It has developed the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9launch vehicles, both of which were designed from conception to eventually become reusable. SpaceX also developed the Dragon spacecraft to be flown into orbit by the Falcon 9 launch vehicle, initially transporting cargo and later planned to carry humans. On 25 May 2012, SpaceX made history as the world's first privately held company to send a cargo payload, carried on the Dragon spacecraft, to the International Space Station.[4]In order to control quality and costs, SpaceX designs, tests and fabricates the majority of its components in-house, including the Merlin, Kestrel, and Draco rocket engines used on the Falcon launch vehicles and the Dragon spacecraft. In 2006, NASA awarded the company a Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) contract to design and demonstrate a launch system to resupply cargo to the International Space Station (ISS). On 9 December 2010, the launch of the COTS Demo Flight 1 mission, SpaceX became the first privately funded company to successfully launch, orbit and recover a spacecraft. On 22 May 2012, SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket carried the unmanned Dragon capsule into space, marking the first time a private company has sent a spacecraft to the space station. The unmanned, cone-shaped capsule became the first privately built and operated vehicle to ever dock with the orbiting outpost.NASA has also awarded SpaceX a contract to develop and demonstrate a human-rated Dragon as part of its Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) program to transport crew to the ISS. SpaceX is planning its first crewed Dragon/Falcon9 flight in 2015, when it expects to have a fully certified, human-rated launch escape system incorporated into the spacecraft.Besides NASA contracts, SpaceX has signed contracts with private sector companies, non-American government agencies and the American military for its launch services. It has already launched, for a paying customer, a low earth orbiting satellite with its Falcon 1 booster in 2009.[5] The company plans to launch its first commercial geostationary satellite in 2013 from a Falcon 9.Future projects that are in the planning stages or in development include the Falcon Heavy launch system, as well as a NASA robotic mission to Mars in 2018. The Heavy is based on Falcon 9 technology, and if construction goes as planned, it will be the most powerful rocket in the American inventory since the Apollo-era Saturn V. Falcon Heavy can be used to send a crewed Dragon spacecraft on lunar orbiting missions – such as the Apollo 8 mission; or be used to send a modified unpiloted Dragon on a Mars landing mission. Musk has stated that his intention for the company is to help in the creation of a permanent human presence on Mars.Elon Musk has stated the personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.[21] He stated in a 2011 interview that he hopes to send humans to Mars' surface within 10–20 years.[21]As of May 2012[update], SpaceX has operated on total funding of approximately $1 billion in its first ten years of operation. Of this, private equity provided about $200M, with Musk investing approximately $100M and other investors having put in about $100M (Founders Fund, Draper Fisher Jurvetson, ...).[22] The remainder has come from progress payments on long-term launch contracts and development contracts. As of April 2012[update], NASA had put in about $400–500M of this amount, with most of that as progress payments on launch contracts.[23
  • Kamal Quadir
  • bKash learned from Africa and saw the next battleground was a model in which regulated banks guaranteed deposits.According to a MasterCard report 89% of Kenyans are familiar with P2P payments and 70% have used such a service. In Nigeria 70% willing to use a P2P servicebKash has 6M+ users, 85k+ agents, 300+ ATMs all operated by BRAC can be used to charge, 150+ branches all BRAC (USAid, Feb 21, 2014(
  • Autodesk: The Secret Star Behind Oscar-Winning Visual EffectsBy E.B. Boyd | February 25, 2011No matter which film walks away with the Oscar for Best Visual Effects on Sunday, one organization that has previously made Fast Company’s Most Innovative Companies list will be a clear winner: Autodesk. Every single movie nominated this year—from Alice in Wonderland to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1, [from]Hereafter to Inception to Iron Man 2—used its software to craft some portion of their effects.And while Autodesk is best known for its architecture tools, less well known is its Media & Entertainment line of products, which are used to create effects in films, television and video games. The tools are so [highly] valued within the industry that they have been part of the toolbox used to construct scenes in every single film that has won Best Visual Effects at the Academy Awards in the last 15 years.Autodesk’s MotionBuilder, for example, was central to last year’s Avatar. The tool was able to instantly transform the motion data it was capturing into an image of what the characters and scene would look like in the final film. So while Sam Worthington and Zoe Saldana romped around the set in black suits and funny-looking headgear, director James Cameron could watch a monitor where blue Na’vi characters were performing the scene against the Pandora landscape. That meant he could see the movie—in real-time—essentially as it was going to appear in its final form and make any adjustments right there and then.Autodesk’s Maya was used to map Brad Pitt’s performance onto the older version of himself in 2008’s The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. MudBox, which was originally created by New Zealand’s Skymatter and later acquired by Autodesk, was used to sculpt the ape in 2005’s King Kong. And Maya was used as far back as 1997, in Titanic, to place virtual characters on top of the doomed ship as it sailed out of harbor. That film also used Inferno, a compositing software that allowed the filmmakers, for example, to add smoke to the Titanic’s smokestack and have it track tightly with the ship’s movement.Much of the core competency Autodesk brings to the table lies in developing complicated mathematical models of how objects look and behave in the real world, then baking that into the software, so that artists and designers can essentially push a button to run an algorithm and have the result applied to the element on screen—a much more sophisticated version of what happens when you apply an effect to an image in photo editing software.“Our job,” Jos Stam, senior research scientist at Autodesk and inventor of Maya Fluid Effects, tells Fast Company, “is to hide all the math.”But he’s humble about the tools’ ultimate contribution to what viewers see at the movies.“We create these tools,” he says, “and I’m always amazed by what the artists can do with them. It’s like creating brushes and then seeing a Rembrandt. You can improve the brushes, but it still takes an artist to really create amazing effects.”http://www.fastcompany.com/1731618/autodesk-the-secret-star-behind-oscar-winning-visual-effects
  • Google is investing in many sectors outside of their core “search” and “advertising” business, but yet for the most part the way they plan to succeed in these spaces is through their core business model, leveraging their core capabilities.
  • Wal-mart reached a point where in the US it couldn’t build a new store without the community rallying against it. It realized this was actually destroying shareholder value. So it has invested billions of dollars on programs to undo this reaction, not just change people opinions but actually alter its business practices so that it becomes a net “do dooder” for the community and environment.
  • Best Doctors offers an innovative health benefit. When you get sick and get a doctor’s diagnosis, you can call Best Doctors if your employer is a client, and get a free second opinion from a network of the best generalists and specialists in the country … at no cost to you. It has grown from about $5M to nearly $100M in revenue in the past ten years. One way it has been able to achieve such phenomenal growth is that it positions itself as being helpful to would-be competitors by doing the grunt work, washing the dirty dishes. Much of Best Doctors' work is laborious. After an employee from one of Best Doctors' clients, such as Home Depot, Boeing or ConAgra, calls them, a specially trained analyst from Best Doctors collects the patient's medical records. It's the kind of work few have the patience for or skill to embark on. As Evan Falchuk, president and chief strategy officer says, "That can be a nightmare, a lot of work, but we do it well." By putting together medical data that other doctors do not, Best Doctors can give its network of expert doctors a more complete picture and thus a better chance of making the right diagnosis. Evan says that when other doctors make a mistake in their diagnosis – Best Doctors finds something wrong in about 20% of the cases they investigate – the "key issue is cognitive; you give them [doctors] partial information and rush them, they get it wrong." By doing the tough data-gathering work few others flock to, Best Doctors gives its physicians more information and more time. Google grew into the number one search business by doing search when others (Yahoo! and Alta Vista) didn't want to do it anymore. Microsoft became the world's dominant operating system by offering an OS when few others wanted to take on the hassle. If you can do something no one else wants to do, you avoid competition. Try to think of one thing that people in your industry would gladly outsource and consider becoming the best at that one thing.
  • 4_BrightFarmsFor slashing the distance from farm to market by building farms on grocers’ rooftops. Farmers markets are great. But the truth is, most people shop at the supermarket. BrightFarms works with supermarkets to plant lettuce, tomatoes, and herbs on site (or very nearby), which cuts transport costs and waste for the grocer and adds days to the shelf life of perishable foods in customers’ refrigerators. This spring, the company will debut a 100,000-square-foot rooftop farm, the largest in the world, in Brooklyn’s Sunset Park, which will produce 1 million pounds of produce annually.
  • For committing more than $100 million to provide high-quality, low-cost financial services to the world's unbanked masses. In the past year, mPower has launched a mobile-payments credit initiative in India and a first-of-its-kind tap-to-pay system in Kosovo. Stateside, mPower took on the $106 billion alternative-finance industry--whose oft-predatory practices center on cashing checks amid bulletproof glass and neon signs--with the Mango Store, an Austin-based institution that aims to forge transparent, long-term relationships with the unbanked, instead of treating them like transient customers.
  • The 4 Questions That Help You See--And Dominate--A Market OpportunityYou’ve heard the story before, a generic narrative with a thousand faces, the sort of entrepreneur’s “hero’s journey” (http://www.amazon.com/Joseph-Campbell-The-Heros-Journey/dp/B000K7UEMW). A woman stops working to take care of her children and is exposed to a whole new set of consumer needs that only new parents are privy to. Her entrepreneurial drive to get back to work fights against motherly instincts and – she just can’t help it – she comes up with something that all mothers in the world would want to have and no one is providing! So she launches a funky, new company/brand that sells organic baby food or hypoallergenic baby socks. It’s just a hobby, something to give her some grownup interaction, but the world’s moms demand more and more, so the hobby becomes a fully operational business.Well, Julie Pickens’ story may sound the same, but it is beautifully different in at least four ways. You can download my entire interview with Julie for free on my website (go to http://www.kaihan.net/tools.html and click on “Interviews”). Like the “Hero Mom Entrepreneur,” Julie, founder and CEO of Boogie Wipes (http://www.boogiewipes.com/our-story/), was fully engaged in a successful career, helping her father run his sales and distribution company. When her family sold its business, she got involved in several franchises including Cold Stone Creamery. After she had three girls, she decided to “do the mom thing” for a while and take her foot off the gas. Her “aha” moment hit when she decided she wanted a natural alternative to the usual perfumed antiseptic baby wipes. She searched for wipes treated with saline and when she couldn’t find any, Julie decided to explore creating it herself. This is where her story veers. Instead of making some in her basement for home use and sharing them with her friends as the “Hero Mom Entrepreneur” is supposed to do, Julie made four uncommon choices to outthink even the largest, most well-funded baby consumer products companies. As a result of these four choices, Julie’s company now owns its category niche, holds a position too expensive for competitors to copy, and has inked a collaboration partnership with Proctor & Gamble to bring her creativity and innovation into yet a larger opportunity.Outthinking your competition begins with looking past the obvious choices, beyond the logical, reasonable ones your competition and industry experts have settled on, and choosing something different. Here are four strategic patterns that Julie put in place to set her on her path to success:Focus on what others ignore: Julie and her business partner recognized the wipes market was saturated, so instead of jumping in to compete for baby’s bottoms, they decided to design baby saline wipes for use on baby’s noses. What are your competitors ignoring and what would happen if you embraced that?Command an input: From day one, Julie began working on building proprietary technology. She and her business partner pooled together $20,000 and hired a chemist to formulate a product. Then they refined and refined. The result? A patent that severely complicates any competitors’ efforts to copy their innovation and create a similar wet wipe or tissue. What critical input would your competitors need to copy you and how could you control that?Step in where others step out: When Julie’s company Boogie Wipes (www.boogiewipes.com) launched in 2008, they enjoyed a nice headwind. Some traditional pharma companies with cold and cough solutions were pulling off the shelves because of health concerns, and customers were looking for natural solutions. Saline wipes were perfectly positioned to fill this gap. How are competitors reacting to market trends and what opportunity does this create for you?Create repeated occasions: Venture capitalists put a higher value on repeated revenue than on one-time revenue. You should too. So look to attach to, or create, repeated occasions. Julie shared with me, “[We looked at] how people are using tissues. Most people use it to blot their face or blow their nose. A lot of people buy it for the cute box. I sort of took all those elements and said, ‘If we are going to talk about expanded use, what would we do?’” This gave her one of her boldest ideas yet. She licensed Proctor & Gamble’s “Puff” brand to create the first wet tissue, which was just launched, available at Target, under the name Puff Fresh Faces (http://www.puffsfreshfaces.com/). What repeated occasion can you link to … or create? Ask these four questions, and you may see an opening past the competition. What are others ignoring? What input can you control? Where are others stepping away? What repeated occasion can you create? And then? “Plan,” says Julie. “There are a lot of great ideas but how you make them come to life is you plan. Be ready to dig your heels in and know it’s going to be a ton of work. People look at me like a deer in their headlights when I say this, but write a business plan, create a pro-forma [financial projection].” This last piece of advice is so good, it would make an entrepreneurship professor cry.
  • Then in 1955, Ingvar Kamprad had another setback. Competitors, feeling threatened by his growing success, grouped together and pressured suppliers to stop supporting him. Unable to source supplies and banned from trade fairs, Kamprad's sales were drying up. He responded by buying his own exhibition centres, creating different furniture exhibits to give visitors choice - even though every exhibit was owned by him. The IKEA store was born
  • For developing an investment-centric social network that's peeling back the curtain on the $10 trillion mutual-fund industry. Wealthfront gives professional investors a platform to share everything about their portfolios--including how much of their own money they've put in them--in hopes that others will pay to mimic their trades. Since launching as an SEC-registered investment advisor one year ago, the site has attracted more than $100 million in assets, and its managers, which undergo an intensive selection process, have collectively outperformed the S&P 500 by 6%.
  • Don’t have banks, they have walking bankers
  • Here is an example. Bandwidth.com which had built one of the largest competitive local exchange carriers (CLECs) saw something was wrong. They know that you can make phone calls with your native dialer directly using WiFi. But no one was doing it. Why? Because the industry value chain was motivated to drive people to use their data plans. So you had skype and other apps that helped people make VOiPWiFi calls, but you could not directly dial from your phone. So they decided to create republic wireless. They got into the Android OS layer and altered it to allow direct WiFi calls. It would search for WiFi and if it found it would route your calls through that. When you are not near WiFi, they use a data service. But no one was going to open either OS to let them build an app “I wish I could just offer software to anyone with an unlocked phone”, which means they needed to actually build a hand-set and alter it, and they didn’t know how to do that. If they COULD build a ahdn set, there was a risk that they would lose money on people who are not around WiFi. And finally, the customer service challenge would be too huge. All of these hurdles looked like show stoppers. But then tafter months, they convinced Motorola to build a hand set for them with an altered OS. They did market research and found that people were actually away from WiFi rarely and for their early adopters WiFi would be even more prevalent. Finally, they tested the hypothesis “others don’t do customer service.” They found it to be true. Other mobile service providers push custoemrs heavily to use self service.

Transcript

  • 1. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net March 22, 2014 Kaihan Krippendorff www.kaihan.net
  • 2. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 3. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 4. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 5. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Mohammad Yunus
  • 6. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ratan Tata
  • 7. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 8. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Thomas Edison
  • 9. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ray Kroc
  • 10. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Betsy Johnson
  • 11. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Richard Branson Oprah Winfrey Elizabeth Arden Dhirubhai Ambani Bill Gates Charles Revson Henry Ford Sōichirō Honda
  • 12. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Martin Luther King, Jr. Mother Teresa Mahatma Gandhi Nelson Mandela Rosa Parks Mohammad Yunus Margaret Thatcher Benjamin Franklin
  • 13. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Elon Musk CEO, Tesla Motors Tom Adams CEO, Rosetta Stone Mark Zuckerberg CEO, Facebook Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post Robert Keane CEO, Vistaprint Wayne Gattinella CEO, WebMD Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab Marissa Mayer CEO, Yahoo Larry Page CEO, Google Mark Vadon Founder, Blue Nile Josh Linkner Founder, ePrize Ann Hand CEO, Project Frog Susan Lyne CEO, Gilt Groupe Cory Booker Mayor, Newark, NJ, USA Jeff Bezos Founder, Amazon.com
  • 14. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Some Victims
  • 15. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 2000 1. GE 2. Microsoft 3. Dell 4. Cisco 5. Wal-Mart 2005 1. Dell 2. GE 3. Starbucks* 4. Wal-Mart 5. Southwest A.* 2010 1. Apple* 2. Google* 3. Berkshire H.* 4. J&J* 5. Amazon* Most Admired Companies Replaced Source: Fortune Magazine, Most Admired Companies
  • 16. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Fortune 500 Survival is Falling Source: “What Does Fortune 500 Turnover Mean?” Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman Ewing Marion; Kauffman Foundation, June 2012
  • 17. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net S&P Lifespan Shortening
  • 18. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Mohandas Gandhi
  • 19. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not consider, and will not respond effectively to. The 4th Option®
  • 20. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 2 Go home Wait Cross
  • 21. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 22. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 23. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Outthinkers are Outliers “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin President, Royal Society, circa 1895 “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” Harry M. Warner, CEO of Warner Brothers Pictures, circa 1927 “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Ken Olsen President , Digital Equipment Corporation,1977 “There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom.” Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923 “The phonograph … is not of any commercial value.” Thomas Alva Edison (Inventor of the Phonograph), circa 1880
  • 24. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 25. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 26. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net URBN Revenue History $ Millions Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF 350 425 550 830 1,090 1,230 1,510 1,840 1,940 2,270 2,470 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  • 27. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net URBN Results 5 5 13 Industry ANF** URBN Growth 5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%) 14 12 20 Profitability 5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%) * 5 years average as of October 2013 ** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization Source: Reuters
  • 28. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net College students only Used clothing Artists not managers in charge Manager freedom Every store different …
  • 29. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Alexandra Kosteniuk How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?”
  • 30. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory Consciousness Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer
  • 31. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Relative number of narratives chess players recognize: Grand master Master Expert
  • 32. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Europe & Americas – Fairy tales Japan – Koan India – Puranas China – 36 stratagems
  • 33. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Identifying Outthinkers Value creation (TRS) Revenue growth (CAGR) (EBITDA) Profit margin
  • 34. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Core Research
  • 35. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  • 36. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  • 37. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22 “I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can.” Elon Musk, founder, Space- X (2003 interview)
  • 38. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  • 39. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  • 40. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  • 41. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Identify and move early to the next battleground. Where is the next battleground? - Technological trends? - Social shifts? - Geographies? - Buying patterns? - Needs? 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground
  • 42. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  • 43. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 44. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 45. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 46. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  • 47. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 48. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  • 49. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  • 50. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  • 51. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  • 52. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power. Who would we like to coordinate? - Customers - Experts - Employees - Real estate - Regulators - Competitors - Driveways - … Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  • 53. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  • 54. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a Two-Front Battle7
  • 55. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a Two-Front Battle7
  • 56. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Cloud providers Cloud services Retail “There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.” - Jeff Bezos
  • 57. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Traditional software SoftwareBrokerage
  • 58. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Traditional CPA firms Projects Resources (Accnts)
  • 59. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a two-front battle7 Project your unique capability into a new area. What is your unique advantage/ capability? Into what new area could you project this?
  • 60. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  • 61. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Environment Employees Community Govern- ment / country Share- holders Customers Corporation 33 Be Good
  • 62. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  • 63. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  • 64. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  • 65. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  • 66. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  • 67. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The Holstee Manifesto
  • 68. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Adopt a strategy that Benefits others. How can you profitably benefit key stakeholders that you are not now considering? Be good33
  • 69. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  • 70. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  • 71. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32 Julie Pickens
  • 72. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ingvar Kamprad Create Something Out of Nothing32
  • 73. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  • 74. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  • 75. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  • 76. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  • 77. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Add a new piece the board. What would you like to create/ add to the game? - New categories? - New occasions or needs? - New customers? - New suppliers? - New distributors? - New regulations? Create something out of nothing32
  • 78. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net
  • 79. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good How can you project into a new sector? What can you create? Where is the next battleground? Who could you coordinate? How can you be good?
  • 80. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net “Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.” Napoleon Bonaparte
  • 81. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net “It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.” - Albert Einstein
  • 82. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Make the impossible possible Don’t build handsets Risk of no WiFi Customer Service too costly “Each of these looked like show stoppers” Motorola Early adopters No one provides service David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com
  • 83. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 84. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 85. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 86. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Mohammad Yunus
  • 87. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ratan Tata
  • 88. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  • 89. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Thomas Edison
  • 90. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ray Kroc
  • 91. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Betsy Johnson
  • 92. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net kaihan@outthinker.com www.outthinker.com www.kaihan.net @kaihan • Work out your Fourth Option® • Email me to get presentation • Sign up for newsletter • Access tools and videos • Contact us for more support