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Bulgaria\'s 2020 Targets: Implications for the Renewables Business

Bulgaria\'s 2020 Targets: Implications for the Renewables Business

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    Bulgaria 2020 Targets Bulgaria 2020 Targets Presentation Transcript

    • RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? 05 November 2009 05 November 2009 Presentation by: Kenneth Lefkowitz Managing Partner New Europe Corporate Advisory Ltd. www.necadvisory.com
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? Indicative trajectory of renewables as fraction of Final Energy Consumption (FEC) until 2020 17,00% 16% (binding) 16,00% 15,00% 13,69% 14,00% 13,00% 12,37% 12,00% 11,38% 11,00% 10,72% 10,00% 9,40% 9,00% 8,00% Source: Directive 2009/28/EC 2
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? Renewables consumption scenarios (TWh) 25 23,19 Historic Scenarios 20,25 Scenario 1: 7% 20 annual growth 17,69 (based on projection of the 15,45 17,80 Ministry of 16,15 Economy, Energy 15 13,49 and Tourism) 14,65 11,79 13,28 10,29 12,05 Scenario 2: 5% 10 10,93 annual growth 8,99 9,91 (2003-2006 8,67 average, 7,93 Eurostat) 5 6,28 5,08 2,72 2,07 1,33 1,36 0 Source: Eurostat 3
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? Final Energy Consumption by fuel/product 2006 Bulgaria EU-27 Derived heat Solid fuels and Industrial waste Solid fuels 4,71% 9,52% 9,61% Electricity Renewables 7,71% 20,67% Renewables 5,10% 42,23% Oil Electricity 23,04% 38,44% Oil 22,83% Gas 11,68% Gas Source: Eurostat 4
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? Scenarios for Final Energy Consumption until 2020 (TWh) 250 236 225 Scenario 1: Minisrty Historic Scenarios 214 of Economy, Energy 204 and Tourism's 194 projection, according 200 189 182 181 to the long-term 174 173 program for 165 166 development of 157 159 153 Renewables 149 146 150 141 140 Scenario 2: Based 133 134 on Eurostat data; 127 129 124 142 145 convergence with 119 135 137 140 130 132 EU-27 FEC/capita 125 128 average; 4,3% 120 123 100 annual growth Scenario 3: Based on NSI data; 2% 50 annual growth (2002-2006 average) - 5
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? Energy Efficiency 2002-2007 and NECA projection Final Energy Consumption/Gross Inland Consumption 70,00% 64,10% 64,31% 64,40% 64% 64% 65,00% Historic 75% convergence with 60,78% 60,00% EU-27 until 2020 58,63% 56,55% 55,00% 54,56% Bulgaria 52,63% EU-27 50,77% 50,00% 48,60% 48,70% 48,97% 45,80% 45,00% 40,00% Source: Eurostat 6
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? Final Energy Consumption, Gross Inland Consumption and renewables (NECA projection, TWh) 350 300 311 296 282 250 268 255 239 244 233 Final energy 200 221 221 189 consumption 173 (Scenario 2) 159 146 Gross inland 150 134 consumption 124 116 114 101 107 100 Renewables consumption (Scenario 1) 50 17,69 20,25 23,19 10,29 11,79 13,49 15,45 7,44 8,25 8,99 0 7
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? Renewables as percentage of FEC Worst-case and best-case scenarios Best-case scenario 20,00% 15,99% 14,46% 15,00% 16% Worst-case scenario 13,10% 11,88% 10,79% 13,69% 12,37% 11,38% 11,77% 10,00% 10,72% 11,01% 10,33% 9,76% Indicative trajectory 9,23% 7,68% 7,63% 7,55% 7,55% 7,54% 5,00% Worst-case scenario 0,50% 0,73% 0,77% (Scenario 1 for Final Energy 0,07% 0,00% Consumption, scenario 2 for -0,01% consumption of renewables) -3,04% Best-case scenario (Scenario -5,00% -3,75% 3 for Final Energy -4,82% Consumption and scenario 1 -6,14% for consumption of renewables) -8,46% Base case scenario -10,00% 8
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? Capacity needed to meet 20/20/2020 NECA estimations Estimated average Estimated total cost Base case Assumed Incremental marginal cost for incremental Type (Installed average capacity to fill (million Euros per capacity to fill gap capacity, MW) efficiency gap (MW) MW installed (billion Euros) capacity) Wind 30% € 1,2 – 1,5 € 4,1 1,419 3,040 Small 50% € 2,5 € 4,6 hydro 450 1,824 Large 75% €3 € 3,6 hydro 80 1,216 Solar 12% € 2- 2,5 € 17,1 200 7,601 Biomass 95% €2-4 € 2,9 1,762 960 Geother 80% € 2- 5 € 4,0 mal 159 1,140 * The expected indirect sanctions for every GWh unproduced energy from renewables are around € 1,2 million, or a total of € 42,5 billion until 2020 for the base-case scenario and € 113,6 billion for the worst-case scenario 9
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? Government actions • Introduce long-term contracts at a pre-agreed price to stimulate renewables growth • The government should get more actively involved with grid development • The government should increase its financial and supervisory functions • Most importantly, the government should seek constant dialogue with the parties involved Source: AmCham Bulgaria 10
    • Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry? 05 November 2009 Kenneth Lefkowitz Managing partner New Europe Corporate Advisory Ltd. www.necadvisory.com 99 Evlogi Georgiev Blvd. Bulgaria, 1142, Sofia tel.: +359 (2) 988-7390 cell: +359 (88) 631 5375 fax: +359 (2) 981-6206 e-mail: neca@necadvisory.com 11