KBank Economics update Mar 2012

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KBank Economics update Mar 2012

  1. 1. ECONOMICUPDATE Capital Markets Research 2 March 2012 Thai Economic Update January Economic Data Nalin Chutchotitham nalin.c@kasikornbank.com • Thai economy continued to recover from the flood impacts, supporting Thai baht’s strength alongside a new risky asset rally • Farm income index declined as prices fell • Manufacturing production continued to rise as supply-chain problems ease • Private consumption index rose for the second month, in line with confidence levels while private investment saw stronger gain • Business confidence returned to the ‘optimistic’ trend • Preliminary customs data shows exports rising by 1.2% yoy and a smaller trade deficit February Inflation Data • Headline inflation rate continued to fall to 3.35% yoy as food prices’ decline offsetted energy price increases but future risks remain • Core inflation rate decline to 2.72% from 2.75% • Local interest rates almost unchanged; private deposits and credit growth still robust • Bond yields started to pick up as expected as investors price in bond supply reality and a slowdown in foreign inflows going forward For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request. Page 1 of 7
  2. 2. Economic Update Monthly Economic Data Thai economy continued to recover from the February, with total amount of EUR529bn, higher than flood impacts, supporting Thai baht’s strength EUR489bn provided in December. Due to these developments, the markets perceived an overall alongside a new risky asset rally improvement in the debt crisis and are buying into risky January economic indicators showed a broad-based assets such as Asian currencies and commodities. Note improvement in the economy. Notable increases were that the EUR/USD pair also rebounded strongly from recorded for manufacturing production, private end-2011 lows. consumption, investments, tourist arrivals, and exports. Yet, recall that these are improvements after the Thai Future risk factors/concerns economy recorded only 0.1% growth in the year 2011, according to NESDB. Hence, on the basis of activities’ The pick up in crude oil prices has caused alarm as the level, we should not be complacent while there are risks global economy remained somewhat weak. Oil price is, from global economic activities and the debt crisis however, likely to remain elevated due to better ongoing in Europe. Nevertheless, the low level of GDP economic data from the U.S. and Asia. At the same time, last year offers a higher growth prospect this year. Iran nuclear issue is likely to provide psychological boost NESDB foresees 5.5% of growth while the BoT said that to prices as well as oil supply faces uncertainties. it could be revising growth outlook higher to 6.0% from $/ounce $/barrel 2000 115 4.9%. Kasikorn Research Center had revised forecast up from 4.8% to 5.0% after the GDP data release. 1900 105 1800 Thailand’s GDP growth %yoy and %qoq % 1700 95 15.0 12.0 1600 9.2 85 10.0 1500 6.3 5.9 6.6 5.2 5.0 3.1 3.8 3.2 3.7 2.7 1400 75 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 0.0 Gold prices (left) WTI oil price (right) -5.0 -2.8 -4.1 -5.2 -10.0 -7.0 As for the European debt crisis, we continue to follow up -9.0 GDP % YoY GDP % QoQ SA on Greece as debt restructuring continues and the -15.0 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 market is growing more concerned about Portugal after IMF issued a report that indicates deep concerns for the Risky assets rally continued from January into February, country’s fiscal development. A second bailout package yet, there were volatilities along the way there were has been suggested while Portugal’s bond yields had not uncertainties with regards to the approval of Greece’s declined as much regional peers, despite of ECB’s second bailout package worth EUR130bn. In the final LTRO. week of February, it became clearer that Greece would % Sovereign 10-year bond yields likely receive its additional financial aid to avoid 19.0 Spain Ireland defaulting on its March 20th payment of some EUR14bn 17.0 Portugal Italy of debts due. By March 2nd, Greece’s parliament had 15.0 passed legislations concerning fiscal budget and 13.0 economic reforms (e.g. wage and pension regulation and 11.0 healthcare system), readying itself for bond swap with 9.0 private bondholders. Should nothing goes wrong, the 7.0 eurozone countries could retify the second bailout 5.0 th package for Greece on march 9 . 3.0 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 THB 1.2% MYR Change against USD, 1 month, 0.6% as of end 2nd Mar 2012 KRW 0.2% TWD 0.2% Farm income index declined as prices fell CNY 0.1% PHP -0.1% Farm income index extended its fall in January, recording SGD -0.2% a -11.2% yoy growth compared to December’s -1.0% INR -0.4% decline. This was primarily due to a large change of IDR -1.8% 12.0% yoy in agricultural price index but production JPY -6.4% continued to climb by 0.9% yoy. -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Key crops continued to see supply increase, such as rubber, oil palm, sugarcane, and cassava; rice crops Furthermore, eurozone governments seem to be heading remained low due to the floods in Q4. As for prices, there into a more positive direction by agreeing to speed up the had been a continuation of decreases from Q4’s levels, process of transferring funds into the new, permanent but mainly because of base-effects since global prices EUR500bn European Stability Mechanism. This could were exceptionally high last year due to supply increase international confidence and G20 nations may constraints of several crops, including rubber. agree to provide more financial assistance through the IMF. In addition, the ECB had further provided cheap funding for European financial institutions (LTRO) in For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request. Page 2 of 7
  3. 3. Economic Update 500 260 Private consumption index rose for the 450 240 second month, in line with confidence levels 220 400 200 Private consumption continued to rise towards pre-flood 350 180 levels as the economy gradually recovers. The 160 consumption index (PCI) rose for the second month in 300 140 January, seeing a 0.4% mom growth after adding 250 4.8% mom increase in December. Going forward, the 120 200 100 improvement in manufacturing production should cause 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 factory workers to return to work and also help to improve Reuters/Jefferies Comdty index (LHS) UN FAO Food price index (RHS) earning prospects, thus providing a boost to consumption (PCI number is preliminary as data remained incomplete). Manufacturing production continued to rise as supply-chain problems ease % mom Index 6 144 142 4 The manufacturing production index showed an increase 140 of second month of improvement with 19.1% mom 2 138 growth but remained about 15% below the previous 136 0 year’s level. Meanwhile, capacity utilization rate rose 134 from 52.5% in December to 60.2% in January. -2 132 Production and exports from key industries, namely hard -4 130 disk drives, vehicles, and electronics (I/C and semi- Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 conductors), continued to move nearer to pre-flood levels PCI sa MoM (left axis) Private consumption index sa (right axis) as problem of supply-chain disruption dissipates. % yoy % Domestic trading indicators showed a significant 40 70 30 slowdown in November but regain its growth momentum 65 in December (data disbursement has 2-month lag) as 20 10 60 flooding problems subsided. Retail trade index dropped 0 by a lesser amount of 1.7% yoy compared to November’s 55 -10 -20 50 decline of 18.8% yoy in November. This was led by -30 improvement in sales of vehicles and fuel usage. 45 -40 Meanwhile, wholesale trade index increased by 16.0% -50 40 yoy in December, led by gains in the construction sector Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 and household appliances. Manufacturing production index ISIC (% yoy, left) Capacity Utilization (% , right) 30 86 25 84 When we split production into the degrees of export- 20 intensiveness, it seems that the more export-dependent 82 15 sectors had observed a slower pace of improvement. 10 80 5 78 Industries exporting more than 60% of total output 0 76 continue to see large negative growth of 29.4% yoy while -5 74 those exporting less than 30% of output saw positive -10 -15 72 growth rate of 4.1%, led by increases in the petroleum, -20 70 beer production, and construction sectors. Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 % mom Index 40 220 Retail sales % yoy (left) Consumer confidence index (right) 30 200 20 Increase in sales had also been in line with the rise in 10 180 consumer confidence index (CCI) in December. 0 160 Meanwhile, the CCI rose for the second month in -10 140 January to 74.2 from 73.1 in December. -20 -30 120 Private investment index sees stronger gain -40 100 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Private investment index growth (PII) remained in the MPI sa % mom (left) Manufacturing production index ISIC (3m ma, right) negative zone compared to a year ago (-0.4% yoy) but activities had gained pace, given the 8.0% mom change. Increase in investment jives well with the timing of Two sectors that continued to shrink over the years are manufacturing production recovery as well as exports. the textiles and garment industries and this is likely due to both competition from abroad and less robust demand Areas permitted for construction (12m moving average globally. Growth in the year 2011 for textiles had been - count) continued to rose by 12.7% in January after a gain 17.7% while in January, production continued to fall by of 10.2% in Q4 and 16.1% in December. This points to 39% yoy. Garment output fell 18.0% in 2011 and a somewhat favorable condition for construction overall further 21.2% yoy in January. despite that we have observed some slowdown in the residential building due to the floods’ impacts earlier. Meanwhile, domestic cement sales growth accelerated For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request. Page 3 of 7
  4. 4. Economic Update from December’s pace of 4.7% yoy to 7.2% yoy in Preliminary customs data shows exports January. rising by 1.2% yoy and a smaller trade deficit % mom Private Investment Index Index International trade and balance of payments data had 10 220 been delayed due to changes in the Customs 5 210 Department’s data collection changes. 200 0 Earlier on, the Finance Ministry showed preliminary trade 190 data, reporting a slight deficit in the trade balance of -5 180 USD626.2mn (Customs cleared data), with exports -10 170 growth at 1.2% yoy and imports growth at -0.2% yoy. -15 160 BoT’s trade balance (IMF’s BOP basis) may show a Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 small surplus as freight insurance costs is subtracted PII % mom PII (left axis) from imports. Also, BoT’s data showed a surplus in the services, income, and transfers category of USD235mn, Going forward, we continue to foresee a healthy trend in reflecting some support for Thai baht but part of this is construction and capital expenditure as rehabilitation still affected by insurance payments from abroad. Hence, efforts from both private and public sectors continue we expect to see a surplus in the current account while businesses would also start to invest as the balance in January. economy recovers. (PII numbers are preliminary as data remained incomplete) However, the capital accounts recorded a deficit of USD944mn in January, led by outward bound investment Business confidence returned to the (USD2.77bn) by local investors and an increase in trade ‘optimistic’ trend credits that followed the recovery in Thai exports. These outflows had overshadowed the capital inflows observed 50 = neutral Thai Business Sentiment Indices in the stock and bond markets in January (led by global 60 risk-on sentiment). 55 Tourist arrivals and hotel occupancy ratio also indicated 50 an improvement over the previous quarter’s readings. 45 Still, we are concerned that news regarding terrorism (following a warning issued by the U.S. Embassy in 40 January that terrorists are targeting Bangkok and the 35 later bomb blasts in Sukhumvit Soi 71) in Thailand could Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 lead to tourists’ avoidance of the country in the future. BSI BSI 3m forward expectations 000 % 2,200 75 2,000 70 Business sentiment index increased from 48.5 in 65 1,800 December to 50.80 in January, in line with expectations 60 1,600 and other indicators since manufacturing production is 55 1,400 gradually returning to pre-flood levels while clarity on 50 1,200 45 fiscal spending plans are also starting to surface. The 1,000 40 BoT’s survey showed that businesses saw most 800 35 improvement in the areas of production, order book and 600 30 profit compared to Q4 levels, yet production costs Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 remained a key concern. Tourist arrival (000 left axis) Hotel occupany rate (right axis) However, the indicator for business sentiment in the next Tourist arrivals in January increased to 1.94 million 3 months did not see an increase, declining from 56.9 to compared to 1.77 million in December, the highest on 56.5. This may reflect the remaining challenges facing record since 1997. This number constitutes a 8.0% yoy the business sector, including rising costs of energy, gain from January 2011 and 12.8% change from wages, and uncertainties in the global economy. December’s level (seasonally adjusted). Meanwhile, hotel occupancy rate picked up to 65.11% compared to neutral = 50 Business sentiment indicators 57.14% in December. 70 3Q11 4Q11 Jan-11 60 50 Headline inflation rate continued to fall on 40 food prices’ decline but future risks remain 30 Headline consumer price index (CPI) continued to slow 20 down, recording a 3.35% yoy rise in February compared to 3.38% yoy increase in January. The main reason why 10 headline CPI had fallen was because the declines in food Profit Order book Inv estment Employ ment Production cost Production prices had helped to offset the gains in energy prices. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate declined to 2.72% from 2.75%. For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request. Page 4 of 7
  5. 5. Economic Update 5% In the second half of February, bond yields started to pick 4% up as the Finance Ministry announced an additional 3% THB53.5bn of bond issuance for the rest of the quarter, 2% 1% suggesting a total of more than THb160bn of bond supply 0% during Jan-Mar period. (next two quarters about -1% THB150bn each quarter) These numbers show relatively -2% high level of bond supply compared to issuance in the -3% -4% past, despite that some THB200bn is for refinancing of -5% maturing saving bonds in the last quarter of the fiscal Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 year. CPI yoy Core CPI yoy THB bn Bond issuance by quarter (fiscal year Oct 1st - Sep 30th) 175 163 161.5 Going forward, there remain risks of inflationary pressure 150 151.5 150 build-up, especially as costs of energy and construction materials had started to pick up. Global crude oil price 125 105.5 107.5 96 had risen significantly in recent trade, primarily due to 100 geopolitical risks of Iran’s nuclear issue and improvement 75 in the U.S. economy, lifting expectation of energy 50 32 demand growth. While these factors remain, the crude oil 25 price is likely to remain elevated. Furthermore, the market is also speculating on higher oil prices, as can be 0 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 observed from the increase of net long-position in crude oil futures by the non-commercial sector (those not dealing in physical oil trade). On the other hand, yields were way too low during the beginning of the month, where 10-year yield was at 3. 000 contracts NYMEX crude oil futures $/barrel and the 2-10 spread was only 15bp. Although we expect 320 160 periodic inflows from foreign investors throughout the 280 140 year, January and February saw a total of THB 242bn of 240 200 120 net-purchase of Thai bonds (the highest sum of 2 straight 160 100 months of net-buy), indicating high-time for a slowdown. 120 80 80 40 THB bn 60 0 180 163 163 40 160 -40 -80 20 140 127 128.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 120 100 84 79 79 WTI spot, right axis ($ / barrel) Net Long / Short, left axis (000 contracts) 73 71 80 60 48 45.0 40 40 28 16 19 28 24 Kasikorn Research Center expects that the headline 20 10 -1 1 inflation rate would see an average of 3.9% this year, 0 with forecast range of 3.5-4.5%. Meanwhile, core inflation -20 rate could average at 3.0% this year, suggesting that Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 there could be months where the core inflation rate foreign net-buy in THB bonds (billion baht) exceeds the upper band of BoT’s policy target. Yet, should increase in inflation rate be temporary, rising As of March 1st, yields for the 2-, 5- and 10-year bonds numbers should not trigger the BoT to start raising its had risen by 12bp, 28bp and 35bp, respectively. As a policy rate so soon. We expect the BoT to keep policy result the yield curve steepened along the 5-10 year rate unchanged until the year ends as the Thai economy maturities, leading 2-10 spread to rise to 38bp. In any goes through a recovery phase in the first half and case, we expect mid-curve yields to remain in range continues to face risks from growth abroad. trade, with volatilities caused by investors’ profit-taking and re-entries, subject to both global and local market risk sentiment. Short-term yields are likely to see much Bond yields started to pick up as expected as less volatility as the current market’s view on policy rate investors price in bond supply reality and a is that it would remain unchanged for at least 2 quarters. % slowdown in foreign inflows going forward 8.0 % Government bond yields vs. policy rate 7.0 4.25 6.0 4.00 5.0 3.75 4.0 3.0 3.50 2.0 3.25 1.0 3.00 0.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2.75 US 10-yr Thai 10-yr Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 policy rate 2y 5y 10y The graph above shows that Thai bond yields continue to give an advantage to foreign investors vs. the U.S. treasuries. Coupled with low borrowing costs in G3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request. Page 5 of 7
  6. 6. Economic Update economies, we expect carry trade and investment in local bonds to continue throughout the year. Private sector’s deposit and credit growth remained robust with double-digit increase from the previous year. Interest rates almost unchanged; private Deposit growth picked up pace at 11.3% yoy growth in deposits and credit growth still robust January, higher than that of December’s growth of 9.7% yoy. This is mainly due to the amassing of deposits by % % the commercial banks in preparation for continued high 4.5 7.50 4.0 demand for loans in 2012. Meanwhile, credit growth 7.00 3.5 remained high at 16.0% yoy and is expected to fall only 6.50 3.0 very gradually due to high demand for growth in both the 2.5 6.00 household and business sector for rehabilitation and 2.0 5.50 1.5 reconstruction. 5.00 1.0 0.5 4.50 0.0 4.00 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Repo rate 12m deposit rate MLR (right axis) The 4 large banks’ average 1-year fixed deposit rate was almost unchanged in February at 2.73%. Banks continued to offer special deposit programs to attract deposits with the outlook that policy rate would stay at 3.00% and credit demand stayed constantly high. Asset management companies had also begun issuing short- term mutual funds (both government debt and foreign deposits) to compete with banks’ deposits. However, the average minimum lending rate (MLR) among 4 large banks declined from 7.22% to 7.13% as of end-January. % yoy 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Private credit Private deposits For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request. Page 6 of 7
  7. 7. Economic Update Bank of Thailand Data Table Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 The Real Sector (%yoy , unless specified otherwise) Manufacturing Production Index, seasonally adjusted (level) 185.2 195.9 188.1 132.6 101.2 139.4 166.0 Manufacturing Production Index, without seasonal adjustment (level) 188.9 196.1 200.8 133.7 100.5 140.7 158.6 Manufacturing Production Index, without seasonal adjustment -0.7 6.8 -0.3 -30.1 -47.2 -25.3 -15.2 Industrial Capacity Utilization (%) 63.1 65.0 65.5 46.4 40.5 51.9 58.5 Private Consumption Indicators (%yoy) Retail Sales (at 2002 prices) 6.1 13.6 12.4 -18.5 -18.8 -1.7 n.a. Passenger Car Sales (units) 12.2 26.4 29.4 -38.8 -62.1 -33.8 -9.8 Motorcycle Sales (units) 0.4 26.1 16.4 -14.1 -22.4 -22.3 -7.4 Imports of Consumer Goods (at 2000 prices) 9.5 17.1 15.7 2.7 0.2 14.1 n.a. Private Investment Indicators Commercial Car Sales (units) 10.1 15.7 25.7 -41.8 -71.5 -46.9 29.1 Imports of Capital Goods (at 2000 prices) 10.4 17.0 5.5 1.3 -2.3 13.5 n.a. Cement Sales (tons) 6.6 11.8 11.4 10.2 -2.2 4.7 7.2 Government Cash Balance (billions of baht) -38.6 -9.8 95.6 -64.9 -28.6 -37.1 -29.7 Consumer Price Index 4.08 4.29 4.03 4.19 4.19 3.53 3.38 Food 7.17 8.43 8.84 9.86 10.21 9.09 7.70 Non-Food 2.21 1.77 1.07 0.75 0.54 0.17 0.73 Core Inflation (excluding raw food and energy) 2.59 2.85 2.92 2.89 2.90 2.66 2.75 External Accounts (Millions of US$, unless specified otherwise) Exports 21,098 20,940 21,259 17,019 15,287 16,856.0 n.a ( % yoy) 36.4 28.4 18.4 -0.1 -13.1 -2.1 n.a Imports 16,546 20,235 18,840 16,006 15,068 17,094.0 n.a ( % yoy) 13.2 45.9 42.6 20.6 -1.9 19.6 n.a Trade Balance 4,552 705 2,419 1,013 218 -238.0 n.a Current Account Balance 3,438 -697 404 39 -136 1,940.0 n.a Capital Account 0 -40 34 0 0 0 0 Financial Account -2,496 161 317 -1,459 -1,664 -2,834 -944 - Monetary authority (central bank) 2,316 -1,451 -755 -307 -392 -603 761 - Government 873 922 6 67 80 230 346 - Other depository corporations (banks) -5,708 883 3,866 -4,103 -3,897 -700 719 - Others 23 -193 -2,800 2,884 2,546 -1,761 -2,770 Balance of Payments 541 -556 -1,674 -1,886 -1,506 -1,029 n.a Official Reserves (billions of US$) 187.6 188.3 180.1 182.0 178.3 175.1 178.6 Monetary Statistics (End of period) (Billions of baht) Monetary Base 1,206.8 1,219.2 1,229.5 1,310.2 1,259.0 1,365.5 1,331.9 ( % yoy) 13.1 16.6 10.0 22.2 13.4 9.8 8.0 Narrow Money (M1) 1,336.3 1,345.1 1,328.0 1,361.9 1,362.7 1,414.3 1,401.3 ( % yoy) 13.9 13.9 13.0 13.3 10.3 8.6 5.7 Broad Money (M2) 12,799.4 12,875.3 12,913.9 13,151.1 13,330.5 13,566.0 13,690.2 ( % yoy) 17.6 17.4 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.2 15.8 Other Depository Corporations Deposits 11,077.8 11,153.5 11,082.1 11,363.3 11,461.7 11,634.5 11,806.4 ( % yoy) 11.1 11.4 9.8 11.3 10.3 9.9 11.3 Other Depository Corporations Private Credits 10,718.9 10,899.7 11,079.9 11,209.6 11,309.8 11,558.9 11,673.5 ( % yoy) 16.3 17.2 17.5 17.0 16.0 16.2 16.0 Interest Rates (% p.a.) Repurchase Rate, 1 day (closing rate daily average) 3.16 3.32 3.50 3.50 3.49 3.25 3.19 Overnight Interbank Rate (mode daily average) 3.06 3.22 3.40 3.41 3.39 3.15 3.09 Fixed Deposit Rate (1 year) 2.45-2.75 2.45-3.00 2.70-3.00 2.70-3.00 2.70-3.00 2.70-3.00 2.87 Prime Rate (MLR) 7.12-7.50 7.12-7.50 7.25-7.625 7.25-7.625 7.25-7.625 7.25-7.625 7.22 Exchange Rate (Baht : US$) 30.07 29.87 30.42 30.86 30.95 31.20 31.55 Source: Bank of Thailand For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request. Page 7 of 7

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