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Capital Markets Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov 21, 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov 21, 2011
Thai Stock Market                                                                     Nov 18                  Change US Market                             Nov 18        Change
SET Index                                                                             984.16                     +9.22
                                                                                                                     Dow Jones                           11,796.16           +25.43
Market Turnover (Bt mn)                                                            21,467.19                         S&P 500
                                                                                                             -2,155.17                                    1,215.65             -0.48
Foreign Net Position (Bt mn)                                                        -1,869.58                  -978.51
                                                                                                                     Nasdaq                               2,572.50            -15.49
Thai Bond Market                                                                      Nov 18                  Change US 10 yr T-note (%)                       1.98          -2.9 bp
Total Return Index                                                                     210.44                 +206.63US 2yr T-note (%)                         0.29          +0.8 bp
                                                                                                                     NYMEX crude ($/b)                       97.67             -1.15
TGB Yield curve     1m                      3m        6m                                          1yr        2yr       3yr       5yr        7yr     10yr       12yr   14yr      18yr
Nov 18                   3.41              3.34      3.31                                        3.26       3.22     3.24       3.26      3.36      3.41       3.54   3.61      3.75
Chng 1D (bp)               +0                -1        +0                                          +0         -1        -1        +0         -1       -3         +0     -1        +0
Chng 5D (bp)               -2                +3         -2                                         -3         -5        -4        +0         +0       +0         +0     +0        +0
Interbank Rates             Nov 21             Nov 17                                              BIBOR          1w         1m          2m        3m       6m       9m       1yr
Overnight (%)                 3.50            3.40-3.50                                            Nov 18      3.50000     3.50000 3.50444 3.50222 3.51889 3.52333 3.53444
Repurchase Rates             1-day                7-day                                            14-day           1m           SIBOR          1m              3m         6m
Nov 18                     3.50000               3.50000                                           3.47290           -           Nov 18       0.25689        0.47911     0.68800
THBFIX (Ref.)      1m                2m            3m                                          6m         9m        1yr          LIBOR          1m              3m         6m
Nov 18           3.09568           2.69449       2.59561                                     2.73149 2.73047 2.76039             Nov 18       0.25656        0.48778     0.69861
Swap THB/THB                                            1yr                 2yr              3yr                                 4yr                         5yr              7yr           10yr
  Nov 21    Bid/Ask                                     2.71/2.75           2.72/2.75    2.82/2.86                               2.97/3.01                   3.10/3.15        3.29/3.33     3.46/3.50
KBank Counter Rates                                                    Buying                                                   Selling                      Forward Premium(satangs/month)
(against THB)                                      Sight Bill                    T/T                                             T/T                              Export/Import
USD                                                    30.78                        30.88                                          31.13                             3.30/13.50
EUR                                                   41.5050                      41.6400                                        42.1938                            2.31/14.75
GBP                                                   48.3775                      48.5350                                        49.1325                            5.13/14.71
JPY                                                    0.3986                      0.3999                                          0.4075                            5.05/16.26
KBank Technical Analysis                              Nov 21                 Nov 18            Support                             Resistance                    Trend           Strategy
USD/THB (Onshore)                                      31.03                  31.00           30.95                                31.10                        Sideway Buy USD near support
USD/JPY                                                76.81                  76.91           76.50                                82.60                        SidewaySell USD near resistance
EUR/USD                                                1.3525                1.3525          1.3490                                1.3550                       SidewaySell EUR near resistance

Note: This table is primarily for the purpose of providing information. It is advisable that you contact us prior to quotations.




                                                                                      Macro and Market Outlook
                     •   Gold price rose slightly on Friday amid easing concerns over the debt crisis in Italy after its
                         bond yields slightly declined
                     •   The US economy is seen moving forward as the leading indicators show 0.9% improvement in
                         October
                     •   Stock market last week trembled, largely caused by fund flows that tried to avoid risky assets
                         amid fears of recession in the eurozone


                                                                                                      FX Market Wrap
                    •    EUR/USD corrected upwards to close above 1.3500 but the euro remained under pressure. ECB
                         president reiterated that the central bank unlikely offer further assistance to the debt crisis
                    •    Asian currencies mostly weakened against the greenback on Friday, led by the Korean won and
                         the Malaysian ringgit USD/THB continued to see a steady rise for the third straight day



                                                                                     News Update from the Web
                    •    Congressional deficit-reduction committee looked set to concede failure, unable to bridge deep
                         partisan differences over taxes and spending going into the 2012 elections
                         Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ
                         Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours



                                www.twitter.com/KBankFX                                     www.facebook.com/KBankFX




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Nov 21, 2011

                                                                                                                                 U.S. securities extended a gain from last week that was
                      Macro and Market Outlook                                                                                   driven by concern Europe’s leaders aren’t able to contain
                                                                                                                                 the region’s debt crisis, boosting demand for haven assets.
    Gold price rose slightly on Friday amid easing concerns                                                                      The Treasury Department is scheduled to sell $35 billion of
    over the debt crisis in Italy after its bond yields slightly                                                                 two-year notes today, the first of three auctions of coupon-
    declined. However, during the past week gold price                                                                           bearing debt this week totaling $99 billion.
    dropped by over 3% following a sharp decline in risky
    assets. Prospects of gold remain uncertain as financial                                                                      Ten-year yields declined three basis points to 1.98 percent
    problems in the eurozone have not been resolved. There                                                                       as of 9:56 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond
    has been disagreement between German and French                                                                              Trader prices.
    leaders on whether they would use the ECB to bail out debt
    nations. Germany is seen reluctant to rely on the ECB for                                                                    Treasuries due in more than a year have returned 1.2
    fear that inflation could surge if the ECB keeps printing                                                                    percent in the past three months, the most of 26 bond
    money. This week the market is likely to keep an eye on                                                                      markets in U.S. dollar terms, indexes compiled by
    the Italian bond yields.                                                                                                     Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial
                                                                                                                                 Analysts Societies show.
     $/ounce                                                                                         $/barrel
       2000                                                                                             120                       S&P Index                                                                                              (% )
                                                                                                        115
       1900                                                                                                                       1300                                                                                                   3.00
                                                                                                        110
       1800                                                                                             105                                                                                                                              2.75
       1700                                                                                             100                       1250
                                                                                                        95                                                                                                                               2.50
       1600                                                                                             90
                                                                                                                                  1200                                                                                                   2.25
       1500                                                                                             85
                                                                                                        80                                                                                                                               2.00
       1400                                                                                                                       1150
                                                                                                        75
       1300                                                                                             70                                                                                                                               1.75
          Jan-11            Mar-11            May-11              Jul-11            Sep-11         Nov-11                         1100                                                                                                   1.50
                                   Gold prices (LHS)                 WTI oil price (RHS)                                             Aug-11                     Sep-11                    Oct-11                 Nov-11

                                                                                                                                                                 S&P Index                     10yr Treasury yield
    The US economy is seen moving forward as the leading
    indicators show 0.9% improvement in October. Economic
    growth for this year is projected to be slightly lower than 2%                                                               Thai interest rate: BoT Governor Prasarn trairatvorakul
    as the debt problems in the eurozone affected consumer’s                                                                     said on Friday that the central bank is assessing the
    sentiment in the US. Apart from the eurozone, the US has                                                                     impacts of the floods and whether output and consumption
    not yet resolved its deficit plans. The congressional                                                                        would weaken significantly or would rebound quickly.
    supercomittee is unlikely to reach the agreement on deficit-                                                                 Meanwhile, he also mentioned that confidence level would
    cutting plans, which could further leads to market volatility                                                                also need to be considered and the MPC stands ready to
    for this week.                                                                                                               take those factors into consideration for their decision in
                                                                                                                                                            th
                                                                                                                                 the next meeting on Nov 30 .
       % y oy
       15
                                                                                                                                 The FX swap market shows signs of increased
        10                                                                                                                       expectations of a 25-50bp rate cut, as swap points fell. At
         5
                                                                                                                                 the same time, renewed concerns over Europe’s debt
                                                                                                                                 problems also caused some worry over USD liquidity in the
         0
                                                                                                                                 market, leading swap points in the same downward
        -5                                                                                                                       direction. Nevertheless, Dr Prasarn did mention that there
                                                                                                                                 is no big concern over USD liquidity at the moment.
       -10
                                                                                                                                      %                                      Government bond yield curve
             Oct-08       Apr-09          Oct-09         Apr-10            Oct-10      Apr-11        Oct-11
                                                                                                                                     3.50
                                              US Leading economic indicator                                                          3.45
                                                                                                                                     3.40
                                                                                                                                     3.35
    Stock market last week trembled, largely caused by fund
    flows that tried to avoid risky assets amid fears of recession                                                                   3.30

    in the eurozone. Foreign investors were net sellers of stock                                                                     3.25
    markets in Korea and Taiwan by about $593mn and                                                                                  3.20
    $313mn during the last week, particularly on Friday                                                                              3.15
    following an increase in the Italy’s bond yields that induced                                                                               1y       2y       3y       4y        5y       6y       7y       8y        9y      10y
    investors to sell off risky assets and hold more cash in                                                                                                             18-Nov-11                    11-Nov-11                          TTM
    terms of the US dollar for fear that the sovereign debt crisis
    in Italy could trigger bank crisis in the eurozone.
                                                                                                                                 Bond yields fell 1-3bp across the curve on Friday, led by
                                                                                                                                 investors’ demand. Yields declined more at long-end of the
                                                                                                                                 curve, leading to a flatter yield curve with 2-10 spread
                US Treasuries and Thai rates                                                                                     falling from 21bp to 19bp. 2-year yield stood at 3.22%.

    (Source: Bloomberg) Treasuries rose, becoming the
    best- performing major bond market over three months,
    including currency changes, as stocks fell on speculation
    U.S. lawmakers will fail to agree on how to cut the budget
    deficit.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                             Nov 21, 2011

                                               FX Wrap                                                                                                                  Currency Movement
                                                                                                                                                               Fri 18-Nov-11                Thu 17-Nov-11                  % Change
       1.440
                                                                                                                                       USD/THB                      30.98                         30.85                       +0.42
       1.420
                                                                                                                                       USD/JPY                      76.85                         76.93                        -0.10
       1.400
       1.380
                                                                                                                                      EUR/USD                       1.351                         1.346                       +0.37
       1.360                                                                                                                          GBP/USD                      1.5791                        1.5751                       +0.25
       1.340                                                                                                                          USD/CHF                      0.9173                        0.9215                        -0.46
       1.320                                                                                                                          USD/SGD                      1.2985                        1.2975                       +0.08
       1.300                                                                                                                          USD/TWD                       30.25                         30.19                       +0.18
            1-Sep                                 1-Oct                               1-Nov
                                                                                                                                      USD/KRW                      1,138.5                      1,133.2                       +0.47
                                                           EUR/USD                                                                    USD/PHP                       43.39                         43.36                       +0.07
                                                                                                                                       USD/IDR                      9,085                         9,100                        -0.16
    EUR/USD corrected upwards to close above 1.3500 but
    the euro remained under pressure. The market will likely                                                                          USD/MYR                       3.160                         3.156                       +0.14
    continue to worry about the bond market as ECB president                                                                          USD/CNY                       6.357                         6.351                       +0.09
    reiterated that the central bank would unlikely offer further                                                                  Source: Reuters
    assistance to the debt crisis, amid speculations of U.S.-                                                                                                        .FX Consensus Forecast
    style QE in Europe. He continued to urge faster actions
                                                                                                                                                                 Spot               Dec 2011             Jun 2012              Dec 2012
    from European governments.
                                                                                                                                       USD/THB                  31.04                 30.50                30.00                 29.50
       83.00
                                                                                                                                       USD/JPY                  76.80                 77.00                78.00                 80.00
       82.00
       81.00                                                                                                                          EUR/USD                  1.3523                  1.35                 1.35                  1.39
       80.00                                                                                                                          GBP/USD                  1.5753                  1.57                 1.58                  1.61
       79.00
                                                                                                                                      USD/CNY                   6.355                 6.310                6.190                 6.080
       78.00
       77.00                                                                                                                          USD/SGD                  1.2998                  1.27                 1.23                  1.19
       76.00                                                                                                                           USD/IDR                  9,088                 8,950                8,600                 8,588
       75.00
                                                                                                                                      USD/MYR                    3.17                  3.13                 3.03                  2.98
            1-Jun              1-Jul           1-Aug           1-Sep         1-Oct            1-Nov

                                   USD/JPY                      USD/JPY 100day mov avg                                                USD/PHP                   43.40                 43.00                42.50                 41.50
                                                                                                                                      USD/KRW                   1,139                 1,130                1,075                 1,050
    USD/JPY had been declining steadily since the start of                                                                            USD/TWD                   30.25                 30.00                29.50                 29.00
    November, after a sharp surge on the last day of October
    due to Japan’s intervention. This proves - likely for the 3rd                                                                     AUD/USD                    1.00                  1.01                 1.02                  1.05
        th
    or 4 time this year - that the authorities attempt is only                                                                        USD/CHF                    0.92                  0.91                 0.91                  0.92
    temporary. The key factor stopping the yen from reflecting                                                                     Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB
    Japan’s weak economy is that the market remained deeply
    concerned about debt crisis in Europe. A counter-balance                                                                                                           Currency Pair Targets
    effect, albeit undesirable, could come from the decline in                                                                                                   Spot               Dec 2011             Jun 2012              Dec 2012
    Japan’s exports. Japan showed the highest contraction                                                                              USD/THB                  31.04                30.50                30.00                 29.5
    rate of exports in 5 months’ period for the month of
                                                                                                                                       JPYTHB                   40.42                 39.61                38.46                 36.88
    October, with shipments being under pressure from the
    stronger and global economic slowdown.                                                                                             EURTHB                   41.98                 41.18                40.50                 41.01
                                                                                                                                       GBP/THB                  48.90                 47.89                47.40                 47.50
        JPY                                                                                             0.4%
       CNY
                   Change against USD, 5-day                                                                                           CNY/THB                   4.88                  4.83                 4.85                  4.85
                                                                                              0.0%
       TWD                                                                   -0.3%                                                     AUD/THB                  30.91                 30.81                30.60                 30.98
        PHP                                                                -0.4%
                                                                                                                                       CHF/THB                  33.85                 33.52                32.97                 32.07
        THB                                                     -0.8%
       SGD                                                      -0.8%                                                                 SGD/THB                   23.88                 24.02                24.39                 24.79
       MYR                                             -1.2%                                                                       Source: KBank, Bloomberg
        IDR                                       -1.4%
       KRW                                       -1.4%                                                                           KBank NEER Index
        INR            -2.4%                                                                                                     Current                                                                         98.28
           -3.0%        -2.5%          -2.0%      -1.5%         -1.0%       -0.5%         0.0%         0.5%                      YTD                                                                           + 5.54%
                                                                                                                                 vs 52 weeks ago                                                               - 3.43%
    Asian            currencies
                             mostly weakened against the                                                                         vs 1mth ago                                                                   + 0.00%
    greenback on Friday, led by the Korean won and the
    Malaysian ringgit (despite better-than-expected Malaysia’s                                                                   vs 1 week ago                                                                 + 0.00%
    Q3 GDP growth at 5.8%yoy). USD/THB continued to see                                                                          vs 1 day ago                                                                  + 0.00%
    a steady rise for the third straight day, closing at 30.99.                                                                  vs long term average                                                         + 10.07%
    Today, we expect that the baht would test a resistance at                                                                    Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange
                                                                                                                                 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade
    31.10, against our forecast last week that USD/THB would                                                                     competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation
    remain within the range of 30.75-31.05 for the next 5 days.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         3
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Nov 21, 2011

         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized                                                                                                Auction results of BoT Bill                                                                            Nov 18
    Yield shift (bps)         -40       -30            -20       -10            0           +10         +20            +30       +40                                                                                                                               Bid-
                                                                                                                                                                                         Tenor          Amt.                    Accepted
         LB123A               3.65      3.58           3.51      3.44         3.38          3.31        3.24           3.17      2.86                       Symbol                                                                                Avg. Yield (%) coverage
                                                                                                                                                                                          (yrs)        (Bt mn)                  Range (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ratio
          LB12NA              4.64      4.32           4.01      3.69         3.38          3.06        2.75           2.43      1.87
                                                                                                                                                            CB11D07A                     0.04           65,000                 3.340-3.365           3.3508        0.95
           LB133A             5.06      4.61           4.16      3.71         3.26          2.81        2.36           1.90      1.20
           LB137A             5.55      4.99           4.42      3.85         3.29          2.72        2.15           1.59      0.77                       Source: ThaiBMA
          LB13OA              5.97      5.30           4.62      3.94         3.27          2.59        1.92           1.24      0.32                       Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds
           LB143A             6.39      5.61           4.84      4.06         3.28          2.50        1.72           0.95      -0.08                                                   Tenor          Amt.
                                                                                                                                                            Symbol                                                             Auction Date       Maturity Date Remark
           LB145A             6.78      5.90           5.02      4.14         3.26          2.38        1.50           0.62      -0.51                                                    (yrs)        (Bt mn)
           LB145B             6.68      5.82           4.97      4.11         3.25          2.39        1.53           0.68      -0.43                      BOT152A                      4.00           65,000                  22-Nov-11           24-Feb-11       -
          LB14DA              7.59      6.51           5.44      4.36         3.29          2.21        1.14           0.07      -1.26                      CB11D22C                     0.08           30,000                  22-Nov-11          22-Dec-11        -
           LB155A             8.28      7.02           5.76      4.51         3.25          2.00        0.74           -0.51 -2.02                          CB12223B                     0.25           15,000                  22-Nov-11           23-Feb-12       -
           LB157A             8.12      6.91           5.69      4.48         3.27          2.06        0.85           -0.36 -1.82                          CB12524A                     0.50           17,000                  22-Nov-11          24-May-12        -
          LB15DA              9.00      7.56           6.12      4.68         3.24          1.80        0.37           -1.07 -2.76
                                                                                                                                                            Source: ThaiBMA
           LB167A             9.65      8.06           6.47      4.88         3.30          1.71        0.13           -1.46 -3.29
          LB16NA              10.30 8.55               6.80      5.06         3.31          1.56       -0.18 -1.93 -3.92                                    * No LB auction in December
           LB171A             10.25 8.52               6.79      5.06         3.34          1.61       -0.12 -1.84 -3.82
           LB175A             10.76 8.91               7.06      5.20         3.35          1.49       -0.36 -2.21 -4.31
           LB183A             12.03 9.88               7.72      5.56         3.41          1.25       -0.91 -3.06 -5.47
           LB183B             11.81 9.71               7.61      5.51         3.41          1.31       -0.79 -2.89 -5.24
           LB191A             12.59 10.29 8.00                   5.70         3.41          1.11       -1.18 -3.47 -6.02
           LB196A             13.52 10.99 8.47                   5.95         3.43          0.92       -1.60 -4.12 -6.88
           LB198A             13.34 10.86 8.39                   5.92         3.44          0.97       -1.50 -3.97 -6.69
          LB19DA              13.86 11.26 8.65                   6.05         3.45          0.86       -1.74 -4.34 -7.19
           LB213A             15.05 12.16 9.26                   6.37         3.48          0.59       -2.30 -5.19 -8.33
           LB214A             14.93 12.07 9.21                   6.34         3.48          0.62       -2.24 -5.09 -8.20
          LB22NA              17.00 13.63 10.26 6.89                          3.52          0.15       -3.21 -6.58 -10.19
           LB233A             17.11 13.72 10.33 6.94                          3.55          0.17       -3.22 -6.60 -10.24
           LB236A             18.19 14.54 10.88 7.23                          3.58          -0.07 -3.71 -7.36 -11.25
           LB244A             18.70 14.92 11.15 7.37                          3.60          -0.17 -3.93 -7.70 -11.71
          LB24DA              19.02 15.16 11.31 7.46                          3.61          -0.23 -4.08 -7.92 -12.01
           LB267A             19.67 15.67 11.68 7.69                          3.70          -0.29 -4.27 -8.25 -12.48
           LB283A             21.41 16.99 12.57 8.15                          3.74          -0.68 -5.09 -9.49 -14.15
           LB296A             22.76 18.01 13.26 8.52                          3.78          -0.96 -5.70 -10.43 -15.41
           LB383A             27.97 21.96 15.96 9.97                          3.98          -2.01 -7.99 -13.96 -20.18
           LB396A             28.80 22.60 16.41 10.22 4.03                                  -2.15 -8.32 -14.49 -20.90
          Average             12.84 10.49 8.14                   5.80         3.45          1.11       -1.24 -3.58 -6.17
    Source: KBank, Bloomberg



            KBank Rich – Cheap Model                                                                                                                                                                                 Weekly update Nov 1st
                               Bps (actual YTM vs. model)
                                   20.00

                                   15.00

                                   10.00

                                     5.00

                                     0.00

                                    -5.00

                                  -10.00

                                  -15.00                                                                                                                                                                                        3 mth avg
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Now
                                  -20.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                LB296A
                                              LB123A

                                                        LB133A

                                                                 LB137A

                                                                          LB145B

                                                                                   LB14DA

                                                                                            LB155A

                                                                                                     LB15DA

                                                                                                              LB167A

                                                                                                                        LB16NA

                                                                                                                                 LB175A

                                                                                                                                          LB183B

                                                                                                                                                   LB191A

                                                                                                                                                              LB196A

                                                                                                                                                                       LB198A

                                                                                                                                                                                LB19DA

                                                                                                                                                                                          LB213A

                                                                                                                                                                                                   LB24DA

                                                                                                                                                                                                            LB267A

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      LB283A



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         LB396A




            Source: Bloomberg, KBank                                                                             The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Nov 21, 2011

                                                                                                                                 The deadlock comes back to two fundamental differences:
                      Economic News Update                                                                                       Republican opposition to tax increases, particularly on the
                                                                                                                                 wealthiest Americans, and Democratic refusal to cut
    Debt-reduction panel                                              spirals                 toward                             federal retirement and healthcare benefits without such tax
    failure – by Reuters                                                                                                         increases.

    After more than two months of talks, the congressional                                                                       While expectation for a deal was low, with an election year
    deficit-reduction committee looked set to concede failure,                                                                   ahead and the ugly debate on the debt ceiling fresh on the
    unable to bridge deep partisan differences over taxes and                                                                    minds of many, investors remain concerned about the
    spending going into the 2012 elections.                                                                                      inability of Congress to compromise.

    Republican and Democratic lawmakers cast doubt on any                                                                        They fear gridlock may hurt White House efforts to extend
    possibility of agreement in appearances on Sunday talk                                                                       a temporary payroll tax cut and jobless benefits for the
    shows. Without some unexpected breakthrough, aides                                                                           long-term unemployed, further harming fragile economic
    said, the 12-member bipartisan "super committee" will                                                                        growth.
    admit defeat on Monday.
                                                                                                                                 White House officials were conspicuously absent from the
    Some of the panel members appeared to be stepping up                                                                         Sunday talk shows. Administration officials see little
    blame as the clock ticked toward an imminent deadline.                                                                       political fallout for Obama if the panel fails and believe
    They must vote on any deal by Wednesday but Monday is                                                                        there is still breathing room for a deal in coming months
    the deadline to have legislation written and presented to                                                                    since the automatic cuts would not kick in until early 2013.
    the entire committee.
                                                                                                                                 Those cuts would be evenly divided between domestic and
    "Nobody wants to give up hope. Reality is, to some extent,                                                                   defense programs. But some Republican members of
    starting to overtake hope," Representative Jeb Hensarling,                                                                   Congress are talking about dismantling the automatic cuts
    the panel's Republican co-chairman, said on "Fox News                                                                        to protect the Defense Department from deep reductions.
    Sunday."
                                                                                                                                 Obama has warned Congress he would veto any attempt
    President Barack Obama, a Democrat seeking re-election                                                                       to block automatic cuts, even though his own defense
    in November 2012, has avoided direct involvement in the                                                                      secretary says the armed forces cannot afford to work with
    talks after making his recommendations in September.                                                                         less.

    But a White House spokeswoman urged the panel to make                                                                        With an eye on the election, many Democrats and
    the "tough choices" to complete its task - a package of at                                                                   Republicans have recently agreed on one thing - no deal is
    least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade.                                                               actually better than a bad deal.

    On NBC's "Meet the Press" program, neither Republican                                                                        They would then enter the campaign period without having
    Senator Jon Kyl nor Democratic Senator John Kerry gave                                                                       betrayed any of their parties' core principals and could
    any indication a deal was near. They stuck to their parties'                                                                 blame the other side for not being willing to compromise.
    entrenched positions and blamed the other side for
    deadlock.                                                                                                                    Some are already positioning to score political points on
                                                                                                                                 the super committee. In a fundraising letter sent on
    If the panel does not reach consensus, automatic spending                                                                    Saturday, Democratic House leader Nancy Pelosi said
    cuts of $1.2 trillion over a decade are due to start in 2013.                                                                Republicans were thwarting progress on job creation and
                                                                                                                                 urged supporters to donate to get more Democrats in office
    Failure by the committee of six Republicans and six                                                                          in the 2012 elections.
    Democrats, created in the wake of the battle over the
    federal government's debt ceiling last summer, could
    cement notions of a dysfunctional Washington among
    voters and investors.

    Congress has rock-bottom approval ratings of around 10
    percent after more than a year of budget fights that saw the
    government pushed to the brink of a shutdown and then to
    an unprecedented cut in the U.S. credit rating.

    Given unusual powers to tackle the government's budget
    deficit and debt, which topped $15 trillion on Friday, the                                                                                              Market Strategists:
    committee was seen by many as the best chance in the
                                                                                                                                                            Nalin Chutchotitham
    near term for the United States to get control of its
    finances.                                                                                                                                               nalin.c@kasikornbank.com

    Some of the 12 panel members were chosen by their                                                                                                       +662-470-3235
    parties for deal-making skills and expertise on tax and                                                                                                 Amonthep Chawla
    benefits, while others were chosen for partisan loyalty.
                                                                                                                                                            amonthep.c@kasikornbank.com
                                                                                                                                                            +662-470-6749




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
KBank Daily Update                            Nov 21, 2011

                                                                                                   Economic Calendar
         Date / Time                   Country*                                      Event                                      Period             Consensus                  Actual                  Prior                 Revised

       11/18/2011 11:55                      PH             Balance of Payments                                                    OCT                     --                  $208M                 $719M                       --
       11/18/2011 12:30                      JN             Nationwide Dept. Sales (YoY)                                           OCT                     --                  -0.50%                -2.40%                      --
       11/18/2011 12:30                      JN             Tokyo Dept. Store Sales (YoY)                                          OCT                     --                  -1.90%                -3.60%                      --
       11/18/2011 14:00                      GE             Producer Prices (MoM)                                                  OCT                  0.10%                  0.20%                  0.30%                      --
       11/18/2011 14:00                      GE             Producer Prices (YoY)                                                  OCT                  5.30%                  5.30%                  5.50%                      --

       11/18/2011 14:30                      TH             Foreign Reserves                                                     Nov-11                    --                 $181.8B               $181.8B                      --
       11/18/2011 14:30                      TH             Forward Contracts                                                    Nov-11                    --                  $29.3B                $29.2B                      --
       11/18/2011 16:00                       IT            Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM)                                           SEP                  -6.00%                 -8.30%                 5.00%                    4.20%
       11/18/2011 16:00                       IT            Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY)                                         SEP                     --                  -3.60%                10.50%                    7.80%
       11/18/2011 16:00                       IT            Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)                                            SEP                     --                  -5.40%                 4.00%                    3.80%
       11/18/2011 16:00                       IT            Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)                                          SEP                     --                  1.90%                 12.00%                   11.60%
       11/18/2011 17:00                      MA             Current Account Balance                                                 3Q                     --                  26.6B                  23.4B                      --
       11/18/2011 17:00                      MA             GDP YoY%                                                                3Q                  4.80%                  5.80%                  4.00%                    4.30%
       11/18/2011 19:00                      CA             Consumer Price Index MoM                                               OCT                  0.10%                  0.20%                  0.20%                      --
       11/18/2011 19:00                      CA             Consumer Price Index YoY                                               OCT                  2.80%                  2.90%                  3.20%                      --
       11/18/2011 19:00                      CA             Bank Canada CPI Core MoM                                               OCT                  0.10%                  0.30%                  0.50%                      --
       11/18/2011 19:00                      CA             Bank Canada CPI Core YoY                                               OCT                  1.90%                  2.10%                  2.20%                      --
       11/18/2011 19:00                      CA             Consumer Price Index                                                   OCT                     --                   120.8                 120.6                      --
       11/18/2011 19:23                       IT            Current Account (mlns euro)                                            SEP                     --                 -3530M                 -5393M                      --
       11/18/2011 20:30                      CA             Leading Indicators MoM                                                 OCT                  0.10%                  0.20%                 -0.10%                    0.10%
       11/18/2011 22:00                      US             Leading Indicators                                                     OCT                  0.60%                  0.90%                  0.20%                    0.10%
       11/21/2011 06:50                      JN             Merchnds Trade Balance Total                                           OCT                  ¥39.9B               -¥273.8B               ¥300.4B                  ¥296.2B
       11/21/2011 06:50                      JN             Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal.                                           OCT                -¥204.0B               -¥457.9B                -¥21.8B                  -¥96.7B
       11/21/2011 06:50                      JN             Merchnds Trade Exports YoY                                             OCT                    -0.3                   -3.7                   2.4                      2.3
       11/21/2011 06:50                      JN             Merchnds Trade Imports YoY                                             OCT                    15.1                  17.9                   12.1                      --
       11/21/2011 07:00                      SI             GDP (QoQ)                                                             3Q F                  2.00%                  1.90%                  1.30%                   -6.40%
       11/21/2011 07:00                      SI             GDP (YoY)                                                             3Q F                  6.10%                  6.10%                  5.90%                      --
       11/21/2011 07:01                      UK             Rightmove House Prices (MoM)                                          NOV                      --                  -3.10%                 2.80%                      --
       11/21/2011 07:01                      UK             Rightmove House Prices (YoY)                                          NOV                      --                  1.20%                  1.20%                      --
       11/21/2011 09:30                      TH             Gross Domestic Product SA (QoQ)                                         3Q                  1.50%                  0.50%                 -0.20%                    0.00%
       11/21/2011 09:30                      TH             Gross Domestic Product (YoY)                                            3Q                  4.50%                  3.50%                  2.60%                    2.70%
       11/21/2011 11:30                      JN             All Industry Activity Index (MoM)                                      SEP                  -1.00%                    --                 -0.50%                      --
       11/21/2011 12:00                      JN             Coincident Index CI                                                  SEP F                     --                     --                   88.9                      --
       11/21/2011 12:00                      JN             Leading Index CI                                                     SEP F                     --                     --                   91.6                      --
       11/21/2011 14:00                      JN             Convenience Store Sales YoY                                            OCT                     --                     --                 -4.00%                      --
       11/21/2011 15:00                      TA             Export Orders (YoY)                                                    OCT                  3.50%                     --                  2.72%                      --
       11/21/2011 15:20                      TA             Current Account Balance (USD)                                           3Q                  9600M                     --                 9015M                       --
       11/21/2011 16:00                      EC             Euro-Zone Current Account nsa                                          SEP                     --                     --                  -6.3B                      --
       11/21/2011 16:00                      EC             ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA                                       SEP                     --                     --                  -5.0B                      --
       11/21/2011 20:30                      CA             Wholesale Sales MoM                                                    SEP                  0.70%                     --                  0.20%                      --

    Source: Bloomberg (EC – eurozone, SK – South Korea, SI – Singapore, IN – India, ID – Indonesia, AU – Australia, MA – Mlaysia, TH - Thailand, CH – China)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         6
    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
    obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
    Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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KBank Daily Update Nov 21.2011

  • 1. Capital Markets Research Nov 21, 2011 Nov 21, 2011 Thai Stock Market Nov 18 Change US Market Nov 18 Change SET Index 984.16 +9.22 Dow Jones 11,796.16 +25.43 Market Turnover (Bt mn) 21,467.19 S&P 500 -2,155.17 1,215.65 -0.48 Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -1,869.58 -978.51 Nasdaq 2,572.50 -15.49 Thai Bond Market Nov 18 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 1.98 -2.9 bp Total Return Index 210.44 +206.63US 2yr T-note (%) 0.29 +0.8 bp NYMEX crude ($/b) 97.67 -1.15 TGB Yield curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yr Nov 18 3.41 3.34 3.31 3.26 3.22 3.24 3.26 3.36 3.41 3.54 3.61 3.75 Chng 1D (bp) +0 -1 +0 +0 -1 -1 +0 -1 -3 +0 -1 +0 Chng 5D (bp) -2 +3 -2 -3 -5 -4 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 +0 Interbank Rates Nov 21 Nov 17 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr Overnight (%) 3.50 3.40-3.50 Nov 18 3.50000 3.50000 3.50444 3.50222 3.51889 3.52333 3.53444 Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6m Nov 18 3.50000 3.50000 3.47290 - Nov 18 0.25689 0.47911 0.68800 THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6m Nov 18 3.09568 2.69449 2.59561 2.73149 2.73047 2.76039 Nov 18 0.25656 0.48778 0.69861 Swap THB/THB 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yr Nov 21 Bid/Ask 2.71/2.75 2.72/2.75 2.82/2.86 2.97/3.01 3.10/3.15 3.29/3.33 3.46/3.50 KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Forward Premium(satangs/month) (against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/Import USD 30.78 30.88 31.13 3.30/13.50 EUR 41.5050 41.6400 42.1938 2.31/14.75 GBP 48.3775 48.5350 49.1325 5.13/14.71 JPY 0.3986 0.3999 0.4075 5.05/16.26 KBank Technical Analysis Nov 21 Nov 18 Support Resistance Trend Strategy USD/THB (Onshore) 31.03 31.00 30.95 31.10 Sideway Buy USD near support USD/JPY 76.81 76.91 76.50 82.60 SidewaySell USD near resistance EUR/USD 1.3525 1.3525 1.3490 1.3550 SidewaySell EUR near resistance Note: This table is primarily for the purpose of providing information. It is advisable that you contact us prior to quotations. Macro and Market Outlook • Gold price rose slightly on Friday amid easing concerns over the debt crisis in Italy after its bond yields slightly declined • The US economy is seen moving forward as the leading indicators show 0.9% improvement in October • Stock market last week trembled, largely caused by fund flows that tried to avoid risky assets amid fears of recession in the eurozone FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD corrected upwards to close above 1.3500 but the euro remained under pressure. ECB president reiterated that the central bank unlikely offer further assistance to the debt crisis • Asian currencies mostly weakened against the greenback on Friday, led by the Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit USD/THB continued to see a steady rise for the third straight day News Update from the Web • Congressional deficit-reduction committee looked set to concede failure, unable to bridge deep partisan differences over taxes and spending going into the 2012 elections Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 2. KBank Daily Update Nov 21, 2011 U.S. securities extended a gain from last week that was Macro and Market Outlook driven by concern Europe’s leaders aren’t able to contain the region’s debt crisis, boosting demand for haven assets. Gold price rose slightly on Friday amid easing concerns The Treasury Department is scheduled to sell $35 billion of over the debt crisis in Italy after its bond yields slightly two-year notes today, the first of three auctions of coupon- declined. However, during the past week gold price bearing debt this week totaling $99 billion. dropped by over 3% following a sharp decline in risky assets. Prospects of gold remain uncertain as financial Ten-year yields declined three basis points to 1.98 percent problems in the eurozone have not been resolved. There as of 9:56 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond has been disagreement between German and French Trader prices. leaders on whether they would use the ECB to bail out debt nations. Germany is seen reluctant to rely on the ECB for Treasuries due in more than a year have returned 1.2 fear that inflation could surge if the ECB keeps printing percent in the past three months, the most of 26 bond money. This week the market is likely to keep an eye on markets in U.S. dollar terms, indexes compiled by the Italian bond yields. Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies show. $/ounce $/barrel 2000 120 S&P Index (% ) 115 1900 1300 3.00 110 1800 105 2.75 1700 100 1250 95 2.50 1600 90 1200 2.25 1500 85 80 2.00 1400 1150 75 1300 70 1.75 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 1100 1.50 Gold prices (LHS) WTI oil price (RHS) Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 S&P Index 10yr Treasury yield The US economy is seen moving forward as the leading indicators show 0.9% improvement in October. Economic growth for this year is projected to be slightly lower than 2% Thai interest rate: BoT Governor Prasarn trairatvorakul as the debt problems in the eurozone affected consumer’s said on Friday that the central bank is assessing the sentiment in the US. Apart from the eurozone, the US has impacts of the floods and whether output and consumption not yet resolved its deficit plans. The congressional would weaken significantly or would rebound quickly. supercomittee is unlikely to reach the agreement on deficit- Meanwhile, he also mentioned that confidence level would cutting plans, which could further leads to market volatility also need to be considered and the MPC stands ready to for this week. take those factors into consideration for their decision in th the next meeting on Nov 30 . % y oy 15 The FX swap market shows signs of increased 10 expectations of a 25-50bp rate cut, as swap points fell. At 5 the same time, renewed concerns over Europe’s debt problems also caused some worry over USD liquidity in the 0 market, leading swap points in the same downward -5 direction. Nevertheless, Dr Prasarn did mention that there is no big concern over USD liquidity at the moment. -10 % Government bond yield curve Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 3.50 US Leading economic indicator 3.45 3.40 3.35 Stock market last week trembled, largely caused by fund flows that tried to avoid risky assets amid fears of recession 3.30 in the eurozone. Foreign investors were net sellers of stock 3.25 markets in Korea and Taiwan by about $593mn and 3.20 $313mn during the last week, particularly on Friday 3.15 following an increase in the Italy’s bond yields that induced 1y 2y 3y 4y 5y 6y 7y 8y 9y 10y investors to sell off risky assets and hold more cash in 18-Nov-11 11-Nov-11 TTM terms of the US dollar for fear that the sovereign debt crisis in Italy could trigger bank crisis in the eurozone. Bond yields fell 1-3bp across the curve on Friday, led by investors’ demand. Yields declined more at long-end of the curve, leading to a flatter yield curve with 2-10 spread US Treasuries and Thai rates falling from 21bp to 19bp. 2-year yield stood at 3.22%. (Source: Bloomberg) Treasuries rose, becoming the best- performing major bond market over three months, including currency changes, as stocks fell on speculation U.S. lawmakers will fail to agree on how to cut the budget deficit. 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 3. KBank Daily Update Nov 21, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Fri 18-Nov-11 Thu 17-Nov-11 % Change 1.440 USD/THB 30.98 30.85 +0.42 1.420 USD/JPY 76.85 76.93 -0.10 1.400 1.380 EUR/USD 1.351 1.346 +0.37 1.360 GBP/USD 1.5791 1.5751 +0.25 1.340 USD/CHF 0.9173 0.9215 -0.46 1.320 USD/SGD 1.2985 1.2975 +0.08 1.300 USD/TWD 30.25 30.19 +0.18 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov USD/KRW 1,138.5 1,133.2 +0.47 EUR/USD USD/PHP 43.39 43.36 +0.07 USD/IDR 9,085 9,100 -0.16 EUR/USD corrected upwards to close above 1.3500 but the euro remained under pressure. The market will likely USD/MYR 3.160 3.156 +0.14 continue to worry about the bond market as ECB president USD/CNY 6.357 6.351 +0.09 reiterated that the central bank would unlikely offer further Source: Reuters assistance to the debt crisis, amid speculations of U.S.- .FX Consensus Forecast style QE in Europe. He continued to urge faster actions Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 from European governments. USD/THB 31.04 30.50 30.00 29.50 83.00 USD/JPY 76.80 77.00 78.00 80.00 82.00 81.00 EUR/USD 1.3523 1.35 1.35 1.39 80.00 GBP/USD 1.5753 1.57 1.58 1.61 79.00 USD/CNY 6.355 6.310 6.190 6.080 78.00 77.00 USD/SGD 1.2998 1.27 1.23 1.19 76.00 USD/IDR 9,088 8,950 8,600 8,588 75.00 USD/MYR 3.17 3.13 3.03 2.98 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov USD/JPY USD/JPY 100day mov avg USD/PHP 43.40 43.00 42.50 41.50 USD/KRW 1,139 1,130 1,075 1,050 USD/JPY had been declining steadily since the start of USD/TWD 30.25 30.00 29.50 29.00 November, after a sharp surge on the last day of October due to Japan’s intervention. This proves - likely for the 3rd AUD/USD 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.05 th or 4 time this year - that the authorities attempt is only USD/CHF 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.92 temporary. The key factor stopping the yen from reflecting Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB Japan’s weak economy is that the market remained deeply concerned about debt crisis in Europe. A counter-balance Currency Pair Targets effect, albeit undesirable, could come from the decline in Spot Dec 2011 Jun 2012 Dec 2012 Japan’s exports. Japan showed the highest contraction USD/THB 31.04 30.50 30.00 29.5 rate of exports in 5 months’ period for the month of JPYTHB 40.42 39.61 38.46 36.88 October, with shipments being under pressure from the stronger and global economic slowdown. EURTHB 41.98 41.18 40.50 41.01 GBP/THB 48.90 47.89 47.40 47.50 JPY 0.4% CNY Change against USD, 5-day CNY/THB 4.88 4.83 4.85 4.85 0.0% TWD -0.3% AUD/THB 30.91 30.81 30.60 30.98 PHP -0.4% CHF/THB 33.85 33.52 32.97 32.07 THB -0.8% SGD -0.8% SGD/THB 23.88 24.02 24.39 24.79 MYR -1.2% Source: KBank, Bloomberg IDR -1.4% KRW -1.4% KBank NEER Index INR -2.4% Current 98.28 -3.0% -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% YTD + 5.54% vs 52 weeks ago - 3.43% Asian currencies mostly weakened against the vs 1mth ago + 0.00% greenback on Friday, led by the Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit (despite better-than-expected Malaysia’s vs 1 week ago + 0.00% Q3 GDP growth at 5.8%yoy). USD/THB continued to see vs 1 day ago + 0.00% a steady rise for the third straight day, closing at 30.99. vs long term average + 10.07% Today, we expect that the baht would test a resistance at Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade 31.10, against our forecast last week that USD/THB would competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation remain within the range of 30.75-31.05 for the next 5 days. 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 4. KBank Daily Update Nov 21, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bill Nov 18 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB123A 3.65 3.58 3.51 3.44 3.38 3.31 3.24 3.17 2.86 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB12NA 4.64 4.32 4.01 3.69 3.38 3.06 2.75 2.43 1.87 CB11D07A 0.04 65,000 3.340-3.365 3.3508 0.95 LB133A 5.06 4.61 4.16 3.71 3.26 2.81 2.36 1.90 1.20 LB137A 5.55 4.99 4.42 3.85 3.29 2.72 2.15 1.59 0.77 Source: ThaiBMA LB13OA 5.97 5.30 4.62 3.94 3.27 2.59 1.92 1.24 0.32 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB143A 6.39 5.61 4.84 4.06 3.28 2.50 1.72 0.95 -0.08 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB145A 6.78 5.90 5.02 4.14 3.26 2.38 1.50 0.62 -0.51 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB145B 6.68 5.82 4.97 4.11 3.25 2.39 1.53 0.68 -0.43 BOT152A 4.00 65,000 22-Nov-11 24-Feb-11 - LB14DA 7.59 6.51 5.44 4.36 3.29 2.21 1.14 0.07 -1.26 CB11D22C 0.08 30,000 22-Nov-11 22-Dec-11 - LB155A 8.28 7.02 5.76 4.51 3.25 2.00 0.74 -0.51 -2.02 CB12223B 0.25 15,000 22-Nov-11 23-Feb-12 - LB157A 8.12 6.91 5.69 4.48 3.27 2.06 0.85 -0.36 -1.82 CB12524A 0.50 17,000 22-Nov-11 24-May-12 - LB15DA 9.00 7.56 6.12 4.68 3.24 1.80 0.37 -1.07 -2.76 Source: ThaiBMA LB167A 9.65 8.06 6.47 4.88 3.30 1.71 0.13 -1.46 -3.29 LB16NA 10.30 8.55 6.80 5.06 3.31 1.56 -0.18 -1.93 -3.92 * No LB auction in December LB171A 10.25 8.52 6.79 5.06 3.34 1.61 -0.12 -1.84 -3.82 LB175A 10.76 8.91 7.06 5.20 3.35 1.49 -0.36 -2.21 -4.31 LB183A 12.03 9.88 7.72 5.56 3.41 1.25 -0.91 -3.06 -5.47 LB183B 11.81 9.71 7.61 5.51 3.41 1.31 -0.79 -2.89 -5.24 LB191A 12.59 10.29 8.00 5.70 3.41 1.11 -1.18 -3.47 -6.02 LB196A 13.52 10.99 8.47 5.95 3.43 0.92 -1.60 -4.12 -6.88 LB198A 13.34 10.86 8.39 5.92 3.44 0.97 -1.50 -3.97 -6.69 LB19DA 13.86 11.26 8.65 6.05 3.45 0.86 -1.74 -4.34 -7.19 LB213A 15.05 12.16 9.26 6.37 3.48 0.59 -2.30 -5.19 -8.33 LB214A 14.93 12.07 9.21 6.34 3.48 0.62 -2.24 -5.09 -8.20 LB22NA 17.00 13.63 10.26 6.89 3.52 0.15 -3.21 -6.58 -10.19 LB233A 17.11 13.72 10.33 6.94 3.55 0.17 -3.22 -6.60 -10.24 LB236A 18.19 14.54 10.88 7.23 3.58 -0.07 -3.71 -7.36 -11.25 LB244A 18.70 14.92 11.15 7.37 3.60 -0.17 -3.93 -7.70 -11.71 LB24DA 19.02 15.16 11.31 7.46 3.61 -0.23 -4.08 -7.92 -12.01 LB267A 19.67 15.67 11.68 7.69 3.70 -0.29 -4.27 -8.25 -12.48 LB283A 21.41 16.99 12.57 8.15 3.74 -0.68 -5.09 -9.49 -14.15 LB296A 22.76 18.01 13.26 8.52 3.78 -0.96 -5.70 -10.43 -15.41 LB383A 27.97 21.96 15.96 9.97 3.98 -2.01 -7.99 -13.96 -20.18 LB396A 28.80 22.60 16.41 10.22 4.03 -2.15 -8.32 -14.49 -20.90 Average 12.84 10.49 8.14 5.80 3.45 1.11 -1.24 -3.58 -6.17 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model Weekly update Nov 1st Bps (actual YTM vs. model) 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 3 mth avg Now -20.00 LB296A LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 5. KBank Daily Update Nov 21, 2011 The deadlock comes back to two fundamental differences: Economic News Update Republican opposition to tax increases, particularly on the wealthiest Americans, and Democratic refusal to cut Debt-reduction panel spirals toward federal retirement and healthcare benefits without such tax failure – by Reuters increases. After more than two months of talks, the congressional While expectation for a deal was low, with an election year deficit-reduction committee looked set to concede failure, ahead and the ugly debate on the debt ceiling fresh on the unable to bridge deep partisan differences over taxes and minds of many, investors remain concerned about the spending going into the 2012 elections. inability of Congress to compromise. Republican and Democratic lawmakers cast doubt on any They fear gridlock may hurt White House efforts to extend possibility of agreement in appearances on Sunday talk a temporary payroll tax cut and jobless benefits for the shows. Without some unexpected breakthrough, aides long-term unemployed, further harming fragile economic said, the 12-member bipartisan "super committee" will growth. admit defeat on Monday. White House officials were conspicuously absent from the Some of the panel members appeared to be stepping up Sunday talk shows. Administration officials see little blame as the clock ticked toward an imminent deadline. political fallout for Obama if the panel fails and believe They must vote on any deal by Wednesday but Monday is there is still breathing room for a deal in coming months the deadline to have legislation written and presented to since the automatic cuts would not kick in until early 2013. the entire committee. Those cuts would be evenly divided between domestic and "Nobody wants to give up hope. Reality is, to some extent, defense programs. But some Republican members of starting to overtake hope," Representative Jeb Hensarling, Congress are talking about dismantling the automatic cuts the panel's Republican co-chairman, said on "Fox News to protect the Defense Department from deep reductions. Sunday." Obama has warned Congress he would veto any attempt President Barack Obama, a Democrat seeking re-election to block automatic cuts, even though his own defense in November 2012, has avoided direct involvement in the secretary says the armed forces cannot afford to work with talks after making his recommendations in September. less. But a White House spokeswoman urged the panel to make With an eye on the election, many Democrats and the "tough choices" to complete its task - a package of at Republicans have recently agreed on one thing - no deal is least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction over the next decade. actually better than a bad deal. On NBC's "Meet the Press" program, neither Republican They would then enter the campaign period without having Senator Jon Kyl nor Democratic Senator John Kerry gave betrayed any of their parties' core principals and could any indication a deal was near. They stuck to their parties' blame the other side for not being willing to compromise. entrenched positions and blamed the other side for deadlock. Some are already positioning to score political points on the super committee. In a fundraising letter sent on If the panel does not reach consensus, automatic spending Saturday, Democratic House leader Nancy Pelosi said cuts of $1.2 trillion over a decade are due to start in 2013. Republicans were thwarting progress on job creation and urged supporters to donate to get more Democrats in office Failure by the committee of six Republicans and six in the 2012 elections. Democrats, created in the wake of the battle over the federal government's debt ceiling last summer, could cement notions of a dysfunctional Washington among voters and investors. Congress has rock-bottom approval ratings of around 10 percent after more than a year of budget fights that saw the government pushed to the brink of a shutdown and then to an unprecedented cut in the U.S. credit rating. Given unusual powers to tackle the government's budget deficit and debt, which topped $15 trillion on Friday, the Market Strategists: committee was seen by many as the best chance in the Nalin Chutchotitham near term for the United States to get control of its finances. nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Some of the 12 panel members were chosen by their +662-470-3235 parties for deal-making skills and expertise on tax and Amonthep Chawla benefits, while others were chosen for partisan loyalty. amonthep.c@kasikornbank.com +662-470-6749 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • 6. KBank Daily Update Nov 21, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country* Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 11/18/2011 11:55 PH Balance of Payments OCT -- $208M $719M -- 11/18/2011 12:30 JN Nationwide Dept. Sales (YoY) OCT -- -0.50% -2.40% -- 11/18/2011 12:30 JN Tokyo Dept. Store Sales (YoY) OCT -- -1.90% -3.60% -- 11/18/2011 14:00 GE Producer Prices (MoM) OCT 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% -- 11/18/2011 14:00 GE Producer Prices (YoY) OCT 5.30% 5.30% 5.50% -- 11/18/2011 14:30 TH Foreign Reserves Nov-11 -- $181.8B $181.8B -- 11/18/2011 14:30 TH Forward Contracts Nov-11 -- $29.3B $29.2B -- 11/18/2011 16:00 IT Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) SEP -6.00% -8.30% 5.00% 4.20% 11/18/2011 16:00 IT Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) SEP -- -3.60% 10.50% 7.80% 11/18/2011 16:00 IT Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) SEP -- -5.40% 4.00% 3.80% 11/18/2011 16:00 IT Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) SEP -- 1.90% 12.00% 11.60% 11/18/2011 17:00 MA Current Account Balance 3Q -- 26.6B 23.4B -- 11/18/2011 17:00 MA GDP YoY% 3Q 4.80% 5.80% 4.00% 4.30% 11/18/2011 19:00 CA Consumer Price Index MoM OCT 0.10% 0.20% 0.20% -- 11/18/2011 19:00 CA Consumer Price Index YoY OCT 2.80% 2.90% 3.20% -- 11/18/2011 19:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core MoM OCT 0.10% 0.30% 0.50% -- 11/18/2011 19:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core YoY OCT 1.90% 2.10% 2.20% -- 11/18/2011 19:00 CA Consumer Price Index OCT -- 120.8 120.6 -- 11/18/2011 19:23 IT Current Account (mlns euro) SEP -- -3530M -5393M -- 11/18/2011 20:30 CA Leading Indicators MoM OCT 0.10% 0.20% -0.10% 0.10% 11/18/2011 22:00 US Leading Indicators OCT 0.60% 0.90% 0.20% 0.10% 11/21/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total OCT ¥39.9B -¥273.8B ¥300.4B ¥296.2B 11/21/2011 06:50 JN Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal. OCT -¥204.0B -¥457.9B -¥21.8B -¥96.7B 11/21/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Exports YoY OCT -0.3 -3.7 2.4 2.3 11/21/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Imports YoY OCT 15.1 17.9 12.1 -- 11/21/2011 07:00 SI GDP (QoQ) 3Q F 2.00% 1.90% 1.30% -6.40% 11/21/2011 07:00 SI GDP (YoY) 3Q F 6.10% 6.10% 5.90% -- 11/21/2011 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) NOV -- -3.10% 2.80% -- 11/21/2011 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (YoY) NOV -- 1.20% 1.20% -- 11/21/2011 09:30 TH Gross Domestic Product SA (QoQ) 3Q 1.50% 0.50% -0.20% 0.00% 11/21/2011 09:30 TH Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 3Q 4.50% 3.50% 2.60% 2.70% 11/21/2011 11:30 JN All Industry Activity Index (MoM) SEP -1.00% -- -0.50% -- 11/21/2011 12:00 JN Coincident Index CI SEP F -- -- 88.9 -- 11/21/2011 12:00 JN Leading Index CI SEP F -- -- 91.6 -- 11/21/2011 14:00 JN Convenience Store Sales YoY OCT -- -- -4.00% -- 11/21/2011 15:00 TA Export Orders (YoY) OCT 3.50% -- 2.72% -- 11/21/2011 15:20 TA Current Account Balance (USD) 3Q 9600M -- 9015M -- 11/21/2011 16:00 EC Euro-Zone Current Account nsa SEP -- -- -6.3B -- 11/21/2011 16:00 EC ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA SEP -- -- -5.0B -- 11/21/2011 20:30 CA Wholesale Sales MoM SEP 0.70% -- 0.20% -- Source: Bloomberg (EC – eurozone, SK – South Korea, SI – Singapore, IN – India, ID – Indonesia, AU – Australia, MA – Mlaysia, TH - Thailand, CH – China) 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.