Kbank daily jan 28

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Kbank daily jan 28

  1. 1. Capital Markets Research Jan 28, 2011Thai Stock Market Jan 27 Change US Market Jan 27 ChangeSET Index 986.71 +8.64 Dow Jones 11,989.83 +4.39Market Turnover (Bt mn) 29,093.23 -5,500.88 Nasdaq 2,755.28 +15.78Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +1,266.93 +870.46 S&P 500 1,299.54 +2.91Thai Bond Market Jan 27 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.39 -3 bpTotal Return Index 200.40 +0.03 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.59 -4 bpTotal Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 85.64 -1.69Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yrJan 27 (%) 2.03 2.09 2.27 2.54 2.95 3.20 3.39 3.63 3.84 4.02 4.13 4.22Change (bp) -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 -1Interbank Rates Jan 28 Jan 26 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yrOvernight (%) 2.25 2.050-2.210 Jan 27 2.26125 2.28141 2.34500 2.39875 2.49750 2.55000 2.65719Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 27 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 27 0.27060 0.30900 0.46550THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 27 1.13471 1.09452 1.25273 1.52567 1.77613 1.99959 Jan 27 0.26000 0.30438 0.45469SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yrJan 28 Bid/Ask 1.86/1.89 2.54/2.57 3.05/3.08 3.35/3.39 3.58/3.62 3.89/3.93 4.18/4.22KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/ImportUSD 30.74 30.84 31.09 0.15/2.16EUR 42.0500 42.1875 42.7163 -2.86/0.63GBP 48.7325 48.8913 49.4763 -1.14/1.56JPY 0.3699 0.3710 0.3779 -0.49/3.72KBank Technical Analysis Jan 28 Jan 27 Support Resistance Trend StrategyTHB (Onshore) 30.96 30.90 30.90 31.05 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceJPY 82.71 82.86 82.30 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceEUR/USD 1.3702 1.3726 1.3680 1.3790 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • Japan’s long-term credit rating was cut by S&P for the first time since 2002 from AA to AA-. The rating agency said that the country face problems with effective debt reduction over the medium-to-long run while failure to revive the economy is threatening a mounting public debt. • Malaysia central bank policy kept policy rate on hold at 2.75% and said prices are likely to climb moderately in the coming months while growth outlook remained positive • U.S. data mixed - pending home sales rose 2% in Dec, higher-than-expected while jobess claims soared 51,000 to 454,000 claims and durable goods fell 2.5% (worse than expected) FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD continued to climb higher, closing at 1.373 yesterday, its highest since early November 2010. France’s President said that both France and Germany would stand by the euro USD/JPY rose 0.8% to close at 82.87 after S&P downgraded Japan’s rating • USD/THB closed little changed yesterday but rebounded strongly this morning on weak sentiment for the baht Economic News Update • The United States and Japan received sharp warnings from the IMF and ratings agencies on Thursday that they must tackle their huge budget deficits to avoid investors dumping their bonds, which would create a sovereign debt crisis and push up their borrowing costs Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein wasobtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  2. 2. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 Macro and Market Outlook US Treasuries and Thai rates Japan’s long-term credit rating was cut by S&P for the The difference between U.S. 2- and 30-year yields was first time since 2002 from AA to AA- (3 notches below the near the widest on record on speculation a report today will highest possible rating). The rating agency said that the show economic growth is quickening, spurring investors to country face problems with effective debt reduction over demand greater compensation for potential inflation. the medium-to-long run while failure to revive the economy Moody’s Investors Service said its time frame for possibly is threatening a mounting public debt. The yen weakened placing a negative outlook on its Aaa rating for U.S. to last week’s low after the news. Treasury bonds is shortening as the country’s deficit widens. The cost to protect Treasuries from losses using PM Naoto Kan is proposing sales tax (at 5% now) increase credit-default swaps rose to the most in almost a year. to help reduce fiscal burden while the government is pushing ahead with a record budget of about $1.0 trillion S&P Index (bp) and would continue to run a budget deficit for the fiscal 1350 300 year starting in April. 1300 280 1250 260 Despite all the debt concerns, Japans exports grew for the 1200 240 second month in a row in December, thanks in part to 1150 strong demand from China, figures show. 220 1100 1050 200 Malaysia central bank policy kept policy rate on hold at 1000 180 2.75% and said prices are likely to climb moderately in the Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 coming months, driven mainly by supply-side factors. S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) Economic growth is likely to see a steady pace while demand-driven inflationary pressure is not evident. The spread between 2- and 30-year yields was 3.99 percentage points, after expanding to a record 4.01 percentage points on Jan 20. (Source: Bloomberg) CNBC News: Stocks ended up slightly as the major indices failed to close above significant benchmarks soon Thai interest rate: IRS and bond yields edged up in the after Microsoft, in a surprise move, released earnings morning session, following the higher swap points on before the bell. Wednesday. However, Japan’s credit rating downgrade led swap points to lower again, leading longer rates lower. In U.S. economic news, pending home sales rose 2 percent in December, which was more than expected, the IRS 1year tested 2.0% level before ending near 1.94% National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. while 5-year benchmark bond yield (LB15DA) jumped to Jobless claims soared 51,000 to 454,000, as snowfall in around 3.42% before ending lower to around 3.40%. several states slowed down claims processing, according bp Government bond yield change % to the Labor Department. Thats far more than the slight 30 5.0 rise to 405,000 expected by economists surveyed by 25 4.5 Reuters. Meanwhile, durable goods fell 2.5 percent, the 20 4.0 Commerce Department reported. That was far worse than 15 3.5 the 1.5 percent rise expected by economists surveyed by 10 3.0 Reuters. 5 2.5 0 2.0 -5 1.5 thousands thousands -10 1.0 7000 700 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 yrs 650 6000 Spread (left axis) 28-Jan-11 21-Jan-11 600 5000 550 500 Although the market’s USD liquidity situation seemed to 4000 450 have improved, FX swap market is likely to continue seeing 400 fluctuations, based on the uncertainties of FIF fund inflows 3000 350 from matured investments and the unpredictable USD 2000 300 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 liquidity support from the BoT. continuing claims 4-wk average (left axis) initial claims 4-wk average (right axis) % THB fixing rates and IRS 2.75 2.50 2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 1Wk 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 1Y IRS 1Y IRS 2Y current 1-day ago 5-day ago 1-m ago 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  3. 3. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Thu 27-Jan-11 Wed 26-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 30.79 30.80 -0.03 1.38 USD/JPY 82.87 82.27 +0.73 1.36 EUR/USD 1.373 1.370 +0.20 1.34 GBP/USD 1.5926 1.5900 +0.16 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9450 0.9432 +0.19 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2814 1.2796 +0.14 1.26 USD/TWD 29.03 29.06 -0.07 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 USD/KRW 1,114.3 1,115.0 -0.06 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.19 44.25 -0.14 EUR/USD continued to climb higher, closing at 1.373 USD/IDR 9,022 9,028 -0.07 yesterday, its highest since early November 2010. France’s USD/MYR 3.052 3.050 +0.05 President Nicholas Sarkozy said yesterday that both France and Germany would stand by the euro and never USD/CNY 6.582 6.581 +0.01 Source: Reuters let the currency fall, sending a new commitment signal to .FX Consensus Forecast speculators and the market. Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 38.00 80 USD/THB 30.98 28.30 28.00 37.50 81 USD/JPY 82.74 86.00 89.00 37.00 EUR/USD 1.37 1.29 1.30 82 36.50 GBP/USD 1.59 1.55 1.60 83 36.00 USD/CNY 6.59 6.46 6.30 84 35.50 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.23 35.00 85 USD/IDR 9,035 8,900 8,800 1-Nov 11-Nov 21-Nov 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 20-Jan USD/MYR 3.06 3.02 2.95 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/PHP 44.09 42.50 41.50 USD/JPY rose 0.8% to close at 82.87 after S&P USD/KRW 1,115 1,085 1,050 downgraded Japan’s sovereign credit rating by a notch on USD/TWD 29.04 28.80 28.50 the back of mounting government debt and poor economic AUD/USD 0.99 0.99 0.98 outlook. NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 31.10 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 30.90 Currency Pair Targets 30.70 30.50 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 30.30 USD/THB 30.98 28.30 28.0 30.10 EUR/THB 42.48 40.0 37.0 29.90 29.70 JPY/THB 37.46 34.70 29.5 29.50 GBP/THB 49.16 47.40 43.7 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 CNY/THB 4.70 4.78 4.2 USD/THB AUD/THB 30.65 27.4 26.0 USD/THB closed little changed yesterday but rebounded CHF/THB 32.76 29.6 27.7 strongly this morning on weak sentiment for the baht. The Source: KBank, Bloomberg slump in gold prices leads the expectation that local investors and gold exporters would use the opportunity to KBank NEER Index accumulate the metal as well, boosting demand for the Current 98.86 USD. $/ounce prices $/barrel YTD + 6.16% 1500 95.0 vs 52 weeks ago + 5.23% 1450 vs 1mth ago - 2.24% 90.0 1400 vs 1 week ago - 0.14% 1350 85.0 1300 vs 1 day ago - 0.08% 1250 80.0 vs long term average + 11.16% 1200 Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange 75.0 1150 rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade 1100 70.0 competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Gold prices (LHS) WTI oil price (RHS) 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  4. 4. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 27 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.09 2.10 2.12 2.13 2.15 2.16 2.18 2.19 1.96 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.71 2.61 2.51 2.42 2.32 2.22 2.12 2.03 1.68 CB11214A 0.04 90,000 2.040/2.134 2.099760 0.97 LB11NA 3.59 3.32 3.05 2.78 2.51 2.24 1.97 1.70 1.18 Source: ThaiBMA LB123A 4.21 3.84 3.46 3.09 2.72 2.35 1.97 1.60 0.98 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB12NA 5.36 4.74 4.13 3.51 2.90 2.28 1.67 1.06 0.19 LB133A 6.02 5.28 4.54 3.80 3.05 2.31 1.57 0.83 -0.16 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB137A 6.58 5.71 4.85 3.98 3.12 2.25 1.39 0.52 -0.59 LB13OA 7.01 6.05 5.09 4.13 3.17 2.21 1.25 0.29 -0.92 CB11214A 0.04 90,000 27-Jan-11 14-Feb-11 - LB143A 7.38 6.36 5.33 4.31 3.28 2.26 1.23 0.21 -1.07 CB11215A 0.04 85,000 28-Jan-11 15-Feb-11 - LB145A 7.93 6.78 5.64 4.49 3.34 2.19 1.04 -0.11 -1.51 Source: ThaiBMA LB145B 7.93 6.78 5.63 4.49 3.34 2.19 1.04 -0.11 -1.50 LB14DA 8.73 7.40 6.06 4.73 3.39 2.06 0.72 -0.61 -2.20 LB155A 9.51 7.99 6.47 4.94 3.42 1.90 0.38 -1.14 -2.91 LB157A 9.37 7.89 6.40 4.92 3.43 1.95 0.47 -1.01 -2.75 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB15DA 10.34 8.61 6.88 5.16 3.43 1.70 -0.03 -1.76 -3.73 cash balance. LB167A 10.94 9.08 7.23 5.37 3.51 1.66 -0.20 -2.06 -4.16 LB16NA 11.49 9.50 7.51 5.53 3.54 1.56 -0.43 -2.41 -4.65 LB171A 11.58 9.58 7.59 5.60 3.61 1.61 -0.38 -2.37 -4.61 LB175A 12.12 9.99 7.88 5.76 3.64 1.52 -0.60 -2.72 -5.08 LB183A 13.21 10.83 8.45 6.07 3.69 1.31 -1.07 -3.44 -6.07 LB183B 12.92 10.61 8.31 6.00 3.70 1.39 -0.91 -3.21 -5.76 LB191A 13.88 11.34 8.79 6.25 3.71 1.17 -1.37 -3.91 -6.70 LB196A 14.83 12.05 9.27 6.49 3.72 0.94 -1.83 -4.61 -7.63 LB198A 14.38 11.73 9.07 6.42 3.77 1.12 -1.53 -4.18 -7.08 LB19DA 14.94 12.16 9.38 6.60 3.82 1.05 -1.73 -4.50 -7.53 LB213A 16.06 13.02 9.98 6.94 3.90 0.86 -2.18 -5.21 -8.50 LB214A 15.95 12.95 9.95 6.95 3.95 0.95 -2.05 -5.04 -8.29 LB22NA 18.04 14.54 11.04 7.54 4.05 0.55 -2.94 -6.43 -10.17 LB233A 18.10 14.60 11.09 7.59 4.09 0.59 -2.90 -6.40 -10.14 LB236A 19.55 15.68 11.82 7.96 4.10 0.24 -3.62 -7.47 -11.58 LB244A 19.67 15.79 11.90 8.02 4.14 0.27 -3.61 -7.48 -11.61 LB24DA 20.29 16.26 12.23 8.20 4.18 0.15 -3.87 -7.89 -12.15 LB267A 20.80 16.65 12.51 8.37 4.23 0.09 -4.05 -8.18 -12.56 LB283A 22.04 17.59 13.15 8.70 4.26 -0.18 -4.62 -9.05 -13.73 LB296A 23.76 18.88 14.01 9.14 4.28 -0.58 -5.44 -10.30 -15.40 LB383A 27.97 22.06 16.15 10.25 4.35 -1.54 -7.43 -13.31 -19.44 LB396A 29.30 23.06 16.83 10.60 4.38 -1.84 -8.05 -14.25 -20.70 Average 12.99 10.63 8.28 5.92 3.57 1.22 -1.13 -3.48 -6.08 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  5. 5. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 their deficit targets and devise contingency plans to ensure Economic News Update that adjustment goals are met," it added. U.S., Japan warned by IMF, rating The fund said large European countries will all tighten their agencies on debt: The United States and Japan budgets this year broadly in line with earlier plans, with received sharp warnings from the IMF and ratings agencies Spain making the deepest cuts. on Thursday that they must tackle their huge budget deficits to avoid investors dumping their bonds, which The IMFs Cottarelli told reporters that markets were would create a sovereign debt crisis and push up their overestimating the risk of default or debt restructuring in borrowing costs. Europe, following bailouts of Greece and Ireland. Rating agency Standard & Poors on Thursday cut Japans (Source: Reuters) long-term debt rating for the first time since 2002, and a day after a U.S. agency raised its 2011 budget deficit forecast by 40 percent. In the United States, Moodys Investors Service warned said while the risk to the United States coveted top triple-A rating was small, it was rising. For details, see The International Monetary Fund had harsh words for both the United States and Japan, saying they urgently need to act to cut their deficits. As a political battle heated up in Washington over the budget, the U.S. Treasury took steps to prevent the government from hitting a legal limit on its debt. Republicans are demanding spending cuts as the price of their support for raising the $14.294 trillion debt ceiling. President Barack Obama this week announced a five-year freeze in annual domestic spending, which the White House estimates will save more than $400 billion over the next decade, but an International Monetary Fund official said on Thursday that more is needed. Carlo Cottarelli, director of the IMFs Fiscal Affairs Department, said Washington must be more specific in detailing plans that go further. One Republican warned that the United States faced the risk of a currency crisis if it did not get its debt under control. "Were getting closer to that all the time," said Texas Representative Ron Paul, who has long advocated a return to a requirement that the dollar be backed by gold. In Europe, market pressures have forced many governments to adopt austerity budgets to bring down soaring borrowing costs, and the European Union is now locked in debate over whether a 440 billion euro bailout fund for its members is too small. In a report on global debt, the International Monetary Fund patted Europe on the back for its efforts while declaring the United States and Japan as the budget-cutting laggards. "In advanced economies where fiscal sustainability has not been a market concern, credible plans going well beyond 2011 need to be put in place urgently to lock in benevolent market sentiment," the IMF said. Market Strategists: "Renewed market pressures in some advanced economies Nalin Chutchotitham demand that these countries underline their commitment to Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  6. 6. KBank Daily Update Jan 28, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/27/2011 06:00 SK Current Account in US$ Million DEC -- $2114.0M $1930.0M $1934.4M 01/27/2011 06:00 SK Goods Balance in US$ Million DEC -- $3680M $3350M $3171M 01/27/2011 06:30 AU Westpac Leading Index (MoM) NOV -- 0.00% 0.30% -- 01/27/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Balance Total DEC ¥465.0B ¥727.7B ¥162.8B ¥161.1B 01/27/2011 06:50 JN Adjusted Merchnds Trade Bal. DEC ¥523.9B ¥707.3B ¥425.7B ¥536.0B 01/27/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Exports YoY DEC 9.3 13 9.1 -- 01/27/2011 06:50 JN Merchnds Trade Imports YoY DEC 12 10.6 14.2 -- 01/27/2011 07:01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) JAN -- -0.50% -0.40% -- 01/27/2011 07:01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) JAN -- -2.20% -1.60% -- 01/27/2011 09:45 VN Exports YTD (YoY) JAN -- 18.10% 25.50% -- 01/27/2011 09:45 VN Imports YTD (YoY) JAN -- 15.50% 20.10% -- 01/27/2011 13:30 IN Food Articles WPI YoY Jan-15 -- 15.57% 15.52% -- 01/27/2011 13:30 IN Fuel Power Light WPI YoY Jan-15 -- 10.87% 11.53% -- 01/27/2011 13:30 IN Primary Articles WPI YoY Jan-15 -- 17.26% 17.03% -- 01/27/2011 15:00 TA Coincident Index (MoM) DEC -- 1.50% 0.80% 1.40% 01/27/2011 15:00 TA Leading Index (MoM) DEC -- 0.30% 0.00% 0.20% 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Business Climate Indicator JAN 1.34 1.58 1.31 1.38 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence JAN F -11.2 -11.2 -11.4 -- 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Economic Confidence JAN 106.7 106.5 106.2 106.6 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence JAN 5 6 4 4.9 01/27/2011 17:00 EC Euro-zone Services Confidence JAN 10 9.2 9.8 9.6 01/27/2011 17:30 MA Overnight Rate Jan-27 2.75% 2.75% 2.75% -- 01/27/2011 18:00 UK CBI Reported Sales JAN 38 37 56 -- 01/27/2011 20:00 GE Consumer Price Index (MoM) JAN P -0.30% -0.50% 1.00% -- 01/27/2011 20:00 GE Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN P 2.00% 1.90% 1.70% -- 01/27/2011 20:00 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) JAN P -0.30% -0.50% 1.20% -- 01/27/2011 20:00 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) JAN P 2.20% 2.00% 1.90% -- 01/27/2011 20:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index DEC 0.11 0.03 -0.46 -0.4 01/27/2011 20:30 US Durable Goods Orders DEC 1.50% -2.50% -1.30% -0.10% 01/27/2011 20:30 US Durables Ex Transportation DEC 0.90% 0.50% 2.40% 4.50% 01/27/2011 20:30 US Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air DEC 1.30% 1.40% 2.60% 3.10% 01/27/2011 20:30 US Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air DEC -- 1.70% 1.00% 1.40% 01/27/2011 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Jan-22 405K 454K 404K 403K 01/27/2011 20:30 US Continuing Claims Jan-15 3873K 3991K 3861K 3897K 01/27/2011 22:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM DEC 1.00% 2.00% 3.50% 3.10% 01/27/2011 22:00 US Pending Home Sales YoY DEC -- -3.60% -2.40% -2.80% 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Jobless Rate DEC 5.10% 4.90% 5.10% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Job-To-Applicant Ratio DEC 0.58 0.57 0.57 -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) DEC -0.60% -3.30% -0.40% -- 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI YoY JAN -0.20% -0.10% -0.20% -0.10% 01/28/2011 06:30 JN Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY JAN -0.30% -0.20% -0.40% -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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