Capital Markets Research                                                                                                  ...
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011                  Macro and Market Outlook                      ...
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011                                                                ...
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011         Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized    ...
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011                                                                ...
KBank Daily Update                            Jan 26, 2011                                                                ...
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Kbank daily jan 26

  1. 1. Capital Markets Research Jan 26, 2011Thai Stock Market Jan 25 Change US Market Jan 25 ChangeSET Index 959.17 -4.51 Dow Jones 11,977.19 -3.33Market Turnover (Bt mn) 40,703.65 +3,301.56 Nasdaq 2,719.25 +1.70Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +607.67 +4,657.16 S&P 500 1,291.18 +0.34Thai Bond Market Jan 25 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.33 -8 bpTotal Return Index 200.86 -0.36 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.58 -5 bpTotal Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 86.19 -1.68Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yrJan 25 (%) 2.01 2.07 2.26 2.54 2.91 3.15 3.32 3.59 3.82 3.97 4.06 4.17Change (bp) 6 6 3 -2 3 7 3 3 2 5 4 0Interbank Rates Jan 26 Jan 24 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yrOvernight (%) 2.25 2.050-2.210 Jan 25 2.26000 2.28016 2.33625 2.39125 2.49250 2.55000 2.65000Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 25 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 25 0.27110 0.30900 0.46500THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 25 0.88288 0.96399 1.15134 1.40626 1.66283 1.89856 Jan 25 0.26000 0.30438 0.45469SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yrJan 26 Bid/Ask 1.80/1.84 2.50/2.54 3.00/3.04 3.36/3.40 3.60/3.64 3.95/3.99 4.26/4.30KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/ImportUSD 30.67 30.77 31.02 0.45/3.06EUR 41.8638 42.0000 42.5288 -2.16/1.05GBP 48.3700 48.5288 49.1100 -0.01/2.48JPY 0.3716 0.3729 0.3796 0.27/4.57KBank Technical Analysis Jan 26 Jan 25 Support Resistance Trend StrategyTHB (Onshore) 30.85 30.96 30.80 31.00 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceJPY 82.08 82.2 81.80 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near supportEUR/USD 1.3690 1.3689 1.3600 1.3730 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • IMF raised forecast for global growth this year to 4.4% in its January update of World Economic Outlook from 4.2% in October, citing stronger recovery in the U.S. • U.K. GDP in the fourth quarter unexpectedly fell by 0.5% qoq after increasing by more-than- expected in Q3 by 0.7% - Pound fell • BoJ kept policy rate unchanged but raised growth outlook while India tightened monetary policy further to curb inflation FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD remained supported near its two-month high. The market is pricing in a faster interest rate hike by both the ECB and the BOE after inflation rates’ increases • USD/THB tested higher above 31.00 yesterday but heavy selling helped to push the pair down. Support seen for baht this morning after foreigners turned net-buyers of local stocks yesterday Economic News Update • South Korea’s economic growth slowed after industrial production moderated, reducing the central bank’s scope to damp inflation by raising borrowing costs again • BoT’s board hopes to reach a conclusion with the MOF next week on how to deal with the 1.14trn baht debt incurred from buying bad assets from financial institutions during 1997 crisis Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein wasobtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  2. 2. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Macro and Market Outlook US Treasuries and Thai rates Global stock market sentiment remained elevated but concerns for inflation in Asia and the Emerging Markets Treasuries fell, snapping a gain from yesterday, as remained an issue while every investor still has European economists said a government report today will show new- debt problem at the back of their minds. The U.S. President home sales increased for a second month. delivers his State of the Union speech this morning as the Five-year debt dropped for the first time in four days as the market is likely to focus on implications for job creation, U.S. prepared to auction $35 billion of the securities today, medium-term government debt reduction, healthcare the second of three note sales this week totaling $99 legislations among other issues. billion. Crude oil price continued to fall after Saudi Arabia’s The yield on the 10-year note climbed two basis points to minister said OPEC may raise production to support rising 3.35 percent as of 10:12 a.m. in Tokyo, according to global demand. Meanwhile, gold price remained beaten in BGCantor Market Data. Five-year yields advanced two recent trade as investors’ risk appetite increased and basis points to 1.96 percent. continued to shift funds into risky assets, especially Treasuries climbed yesterday, pushing yields on 10-year equities. debt down the most this year, as an official said President $/ounce $/barrel Barack Obama will propose a five-year freeze of non- 1500 95.0 security discretionary spending to help cap deficits. 1450 90.0 A government’s sale of $35 billion of two-year notes 1400 1350 85.0 yesterday attracted more demand than the average of the 1300 last 10 auctions of the securities. (Source: Bloomberg) 1250 80.0 1200 % % 75.0 1150 3.6 0.8 1100 70.0 3.4 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 0.7 3.2 Gold prices (LHS) WTI oil price (RHS) 3.0 0.6 2.8 Several key updates on the global economy need 2.6 0.5 mentioning today so we will not go into much detail. The 2.4 0.4 World Economic Forum begins today at Davos, 2.2 Switzerland, and would last for three days. We expect 2.0 0.3 same attention to world leaders’ perspectives of the Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 economic development from current situation. 10yr Treasury yield, % (left axis) 2yr Treasury yield, % (right axis) - Bank of Japan held policy rate in the 0 – 0.1% range Thai interest rate: Short-term interest rates as implied by and made no changes to its 5 trillion yen budget to buy the USD/THB FX swap market and Sibor USD continued to securities in the market. Although deflationary trends firm up, lifting short-term swap rates. remained a risk, the central bank raised growth forecast this year to 3.3% from earlier estimate of Meanwhile, auction results of the 3-year BoT bond 2.1%, in line with improvement in the global economy yesterday saw less than 1.0x of bid-coverage, indicating and outlook for corporate spending going forward. that appetite for bonds has not improved much. This could also be due to the poorer liquidity of BoT bonds in the - India’s central bank raised policy rates (repo and secondary market, however. The spread was rather large, reverse repo) up by another 25 bp yesterday, bringing while the average yield at 3.25% was about 20bp higher the rates up to 6.50% and 5.50%, respectively. India than government bond of similar maturity on the previous has one of the highest inflation rates in Asia and rising day. food prices continue to put India at risks. In history, Today’s auction of government bonds may still see better inflationary problems that eroded people’s spending results. power and savings had derailed governments before and hence the current administration is also placing a % THB fixing rates and IRS great emphasis on curbing price pressure. 2.75 2.50 - U.K. GDP in the fourth quarter unexpectedly fell by 2.25 2.00 0.5% qoq after increasing by more-than-expected in 1.75 Q3 by 0.7%. Compared to the same period last year, 1.50 the U.K.’s economy had grown by 1.7%, a slowdown 1.25 1.00 compared to the previous quarter’s growth of 2.7%. 0.75 0.50 - The IMF raised forecast for global growth this year to 1Wk 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 1Y IRS 1Y IRS 2Y 4.4% in its January update of World Economic Outlook current 5-day ago 1-m ago 3-m ago from 4.2% in October. However, the supranational body continues to expect growth to remain uneven across the globe. It cited stronger recovery in the U.S. as a key ingredient for the upward revision while concerns for sovereign debt in the euro area continue. 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  3. 3. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Currency Movement FX Wrap Tue 25-Jan-11 Mon 24-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 USD/THB 30.95 30.91 +0.13 1.40 USD/JPY 82.17 82.47 -0.36 1.38 1.36 EUR/USD 1.370 1.364 +0.39 1.34 GBP/USD 1.5830 1.5994 -1.03 1.32 USD/CHF 0.9412 0.9486 -0.78 1.30 USD/SGD 1.2793 1.2808 -0.12 1.28 USD/TWD 29.02 29.05 -0.10 1.26 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 USD/KRW 1,119.0 1,118.0 +0.09 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.49 44.45 +0.09 USD/IDR 9,054 9,058 -0.04 EUR/USD remained supported near its two-month high. GBP/USD fell, however, after U.K. reported poorer Q4 USD/MYR 3.051 3.054 -0.10 GDP growth than expected. The market is pricing in a USD/CNY 6.582 6.581 +0.02 faster interest rate hike by both the ECB and the BOE after Source: Reuters inflation rates in recent announcements are higher than the .FX Consensus Forecast central banks’ policy targets. Yields on 3-month interest Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 rate futures in Europe had risen sharply this month while remaining stable in the U.S.. The market expects FOMC USD/THB 30.87 28.30 28.00 statement tonight to reflect unchanged view of U.S. Fed USD/JPY 82.08 86.00 89.00 fund rates. EUR/USD 1.37 1.29 1.30 38.00 80 GBP/USD 1.58 1.55 1.59 37.50 81 USD/CNY 6.58 6.47 6.30 37.00 82 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.24 36.50 83 USD/IDR 9,040 8,880 8,800 36.00 USD/MYR 3.05 3.02 2.96 35.50 84 USD/PHP 44.43 42.60 41.50 35.00 85 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 20-Jan USD/KRW 1,119 1,088 1,050 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/TWD 29.03 29.05 28.55 AUD/USD 1.00 0.99 0.97 USD/JPY ended lower yesterday as U.S. treasury yields NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 declined, narrowing the spread between bonds of the two Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB nations. Currency Pair Targets USD/THB tested higher above 31.00 yesterday but heavy Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 selling helped to recover some gains in the baht. The baht is seen to be supported this morning after foreigners turned USD/THB 30.87 28.30 28.0 net-buyers of local stocks yesterday and regional EUR/THB 42.25 40.0 37.0 currencies remained on appreciating trend against the JPY/THB 37.60 34.70 29.5 greenback. GBP/THB 48.81 47.40 43.7 The slump in the SET index continued yesterday but it was CNY/THB 4.69 4.78 4.2 only down by 4 points, indicating some stabilization in the AUD/THB 30.77 27.4 26.0 near-term. There is a risk of further plunge, however, with the market eyeing support levels of 890-900 points. CHF/THB 32.77 29.6 27.7 Source: KBank, Bloomberg 31.50 31.30 KBank NEER Index 31.10 Current 98.86 30.90 30.70 YTD + 6.16% 30.50 vs 52 weeks ago + 5.23% 30.30 30.10 vs 1mth ago - 2.24% 29.90 vs 1 week ago - 0.14% 29.70 29.50 vs 1 day ago - 0.08% Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 vs long term average + 11.16% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange USD/THB rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  4. 4. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 25 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.18 1.94 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.72 2.62 2.51 2.41 2.31 2.21 2.11 2.00 1.65 BOT13NA 3.00 40,000 3.12/3.30 3.232700 0.96 LB11NA 3.60 3.32 3.05 2.77 2.50 2.22 1.95 1.67 1.15 CB11224C 0.08 25,000 2.00/2.06 2.040250 1.13 LB123A 4.21 3.84 3.46 3.08 2.70 2.33 1.95 1.57 0.94 CB11428B 0.25 22,000 2.08/2.14 2.103950 1.20 LB12NA 5.35 4.73 4.11 3.49 2.87 2.26 1.64 1.02 0.15 LB133A 6.00 5.25 4.51 3.76 3.01 2.27 1.52 0.77 -0.22 CB11728A 0.50 15,000 2.275/2.310 2.296090 2.23 LB137A 6.56 5.69 4.82 3.95 3.08 2.21 1.34 0.47 -0.65 Source: ThaiBMA LB13OA 7.00 6.03 5.07 4.10 3.14 2.17 1.21 0.25 -0.97 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB143A 7.35 6.32 5.29 4.26 3.23 2.20 1.17 0.14 -1.14 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB145A 7.90 6.75 5.60 4.44 3.29 2.14 0.98 -0.17 -1.57 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB145B 7.90 6.75 5.60 4.44 3.29 2.14 0.98 -0.17 -1.57 LB21DA 11.08 7,000 26-Jan-11 17-Dec-21 - LB14DA 8.69 7.35 6.01 4.67 3.33 1.99 0.65 -0.69 -2.28 Source: ThaiBMA LB155A 9.46 7.93 6.40 4.87 3.35 1.82 0.29 -1.23 -3.01 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB157A 9.31 7.82 6.33 4.84 3.35 1.87 0.38 -1.11 -2.85 Tenor Amt. LB15DA 10.29 8.56 6.82 5.09 3.36 1.62 -0.11 -1.84 -3.83 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB167A 10.90 9.04 7.17 5.31 3.45 1.59 -0.28 -2.14 -4.25 CB11214A 0.04 90,000 27-Jan-11 14-Feb-11 - LB16NA 11.46 9.46 7.47 5.48 3.49 1.50 -0.49 -2.48 -4.72 CB11215A 0.04 85,000 28-Jan-11 15-Feb-11 - LB171A 11.53 9.53 7.53 5.53 3.53 1.54 -0.46 -2.46 -4.70 Source: ThaiBMA LB175A 12.08 9.96 7.83 5.71 3.58 1.46 -0.66 -2.78 -5.16 LB183A 13.20 10.81 8.42 6.04 3.66 1.27 -1.11 -3.49 -6.12 LB183B 12.90 10.59 8.28 5.97 3.66 1.35 -0.96 -3.27 -5.83 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB191A 13.89 11.34 8.79 6.24 3.70 1.15 -1.39 -3.94 -6.73 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB196A 14.83 12.04 9.26 6.48 3.69 0.91 -1.87 -4.65 -7.67 cash balance. LB198A 14.38 11.72 9.06 6.40 3.74 1.09 -1.57 -4.22 -7.13 LB19DA 14.94 12.15 9.37 6.59 3.80 1.02 -1.76 -4.54 -7.57 LB213A 16.07 13.02 9.97 6.93 3.88 0.84 -2.20 -5.24 -8.53 LB214A 15.93 12.92 9.91 6.91 3.90 0.89 -2.11 -5.11 -8.36 LB22NA 18.01 14.50 11.00 7.49 3.99 0.49 -3.01 -6.51 -10.26 LB233A 18.08 14.57 11.05 7.54 4.03 0.53 -2.98 -6.49 -10.24 LB236A 19.53 15.65 11.78 7.91 4.04 0.17 -3.69 -7.56 -11.67 LB244A 19.66 15.76 11.87 7.98 4.09 0.20 -3.68 -7.56 -11.69 LB24DA 20.26 16.22 12.18 8.14 4.10 0.07 -3.96 -7.99 -12.27 LB267A 20.79 16.63 12.48 8.32 4.17 0.02 -4.12 -8.27 -12.66 LB283A 22.04 17.58 13.12 8.66 4.21 -0.24 -4.69 -9.14 -13.83 LB296A 23.76 18.87 13.99 9.11 4.23 -0.64 -5.52 -10.38 -15.50 LB383A 28.02 22.08 16.15 10.23 4.31 -1.61 -7.52 -13.42 -19.57 LB396A 29.34 23.08 16.83 10.58 4.34 -1.89 -8.12 -14.35 -20.82 Average 12.97 10.61 8.25 5.89 3.53 1.17 -1.19 -3.54 -6.15 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  5. 5. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Late last year, both agreed to solve the issue by Economic News Update transferring the FIDFs assets to the ministry to help clear some of the principal. However, both have yet to appraise S. Korea Economic Growth Slowed in the the assets. Fourth Quarter: South Korea’s economic growth slowed after industrial production moderated, reducing the They are now working on drafting the fund-closing bill and central bank’s scope to damp inflation by raising borrowing seeking a consensus on asset appraisals. costs again. "Actually, both issues [asset evaluation and the draft] are Gross domestic product rose 0.5 percent in the three taxpayers money transferred between two pockets. months through December from the previous quarter, when Personally, I dont think any dispute should arise. We it advanced 0.7 percent, the Bank of Korea said in Seoul should settle on a solution that benefit the people the most, today. The median estimate of 12 economists in a even though one of us stands to lose," said M. R. Bloomberg News survey was for a 0.4 percent gain. From a Chatumongkol. year earlier, GDP increased 4.8 percent. Since consolidating the central banks reserve and Industrial output suffered the worst monthly decline in currency accounts is not possible, the focus should be on nearly two years last quarter even as inflation climbed amending the Bank of Thailand Act and Currency Act to toward the central bank’s 4 percent ceiling. The Bank of allow the central bank to use the yields from currency Korea next reviews policy on Feb. 11 after joining reserves to clear the principal of the debts. neighbors Thailand and India in extending interest-rate increases this month, acting on the same day the Currently, the currency reserve stands at 36 billion baht. government announced price controls. "The debt is huge and we cant say its all the central banks “The slowing economy will likely make the central bank burden because during the crisis we agreed to create this more careful about tightening rates,” said Kong Dong Rak, debt in order to revive the economy. Therefore, we cant a fixed- income analyst at Taurus Investment & Securities expect to clear [the debt] in five or seven years. If we work Co. in Seoul. “They don’t want to cool the economy with on the law amendments, I think we could clear the debts in fast rate increases. We may see the next rate hike in March 20-30 years from now and then we need to issue new or April as the economy will likely slow down further in the longer-term bonds to match the repayment period," said M. first quarter.” R. Chatumongkol. The won fell 0.1 percent to 1,119.00 per dollar at the 9 a.m. Commenting on the overall economy, the former Bank of opening in Seoul, while the Kospi share index gained 0.5 Thailand governor agreed with the BoTs policy to focus on percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The taming inflation in line with the regional trend because high won has risen 6.5 percent in the past 6 months, the inflation would disrupt the economic growth in the long second-biggest climb in Asia, threatening trade term. competitiveness in the export-led economy. (Source: Bloomberg) He added that the depreciating Thai baht would benefit the export sector, which will in turn help maintain the economic expansion, even though it will add to inflationary pressures. (Source: Bangkok Post) FIDF deal possible next week: The Bank of Thailand board hopes to reach a conclusion with the Finance Ministry next week on how to deal with the 1.14- trillion-baht debt incurred from buying bad assets from financial institutions during the 1997 financial crisis, says chairman of the BoT board, M. R. Chatumongkol Sonakul. He said the central bank will call a meeting with Finance permanent secretary Areepong Bhoocha-oom to explore their options. During the 1997 crisis, the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF) bailed out several banks and finance companies which suddenly became debt-ridden after the baht had been floated by issuing bonds. The central bank has since been responsible for repaying the principal of the bonds whenever it makes profit and the Market Strategists: Finance Ministry has paid the coupon. Nalin Chutchotitham In recent years, however, the central bank has not made Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com much profit and the ministry has become increasingly irritated by the huge amount to interest it had to pay each Tel: 02-470-3235 year, at 60 billion baht last year. 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  6. 6. KBank Daily Update Jan 26, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/25/2011 06:00 AU Conference Board Leading Index NOV -- 0.30% 0.60% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU Consumer Prices (QoQ) 4Q 0.70% 0.40% 0.70% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU Consumer Prices (YoY) 4Q 3.00% 2.70% 2.80% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) 4Q 0.70% 0.30% 0.60% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) 4Q 2.60% 2.20% 2.50% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) 4Q 0.70% 0.50% 0.50% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Weighted Median (YoY) 4Q 2.50% 2.30% 2.30% 2.40% 01/25/2011 08:00 PH Total Imports (YoY) NOV -- 35.30% 28.40% -- 01/25/2011 08:00 PH Total Monthly Imports NOV -- $4943.6M $4888.4M $4890.3M 01/25/2011 08:00 PH Trade Balance NOV -- -$798M -$112M -$114M 01/25/2011 10:30 JN BOJ Target Rate Jan-25 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -- 01/25/2011 13:00 IN India REPO Cutoff Yld Jan-25 6.50% 6.50% 6.25% -- 01/25/2011 13:00 IN Cash Reserve Ratio Jan-25 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% -- 01/25/2011 13:00 IN Reverse Repo Rate Jan-25 5.50% 5.50% 5.25% -- 01/25/2011 14:00 GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey FEB 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.5 01/25/2011 14:45 FR Consumer Spending (MoM) DEC 0.30% 0.60% 2.80% 2.70% 01/25/2011 14:45 FR Consumer Spending (YoY) DEC 0.50% 0.40% 1.50% -- 01/25/2011 15:20 TA Money Supply M1B Daily Avg YoY DEC -- 8.77% 9.18% -- 01/25/2011 15:20 TA Money Supply M2 Daily Avg YoY DEC -- 5.14% 5.20% -- 01/25/2011 15:30 HK Exports YoY% DEC 15.90% 12.50% 16.60% -- 01/25/2011 15:30 HK Imports YoY% DEC 15.50% 14.80% 16.40% -- 01/25/2011 15:30 HK Trade Balance DEC -36.5B -43.5B -23.5B -- 01/25/2011 16:30 UK GDP (QoQ) 4Q A 0.50% -0.50% 0.70% -- 01/25/2011 16:30 UK GDP (YoY) 4Q A 2.60% 1.70% 2.70% -- 01/25/2011 16:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) DEC 16.3B 25.5B 16.8B 17.4B 01/25/2011 16:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions DEC 20.0B 16.8B 23.3B 21.1B 01/25/2011 16:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing DEC 18.0B 15.3B 22.8B 19.7B 01/25/2011 19:00 CA Consumer Price Index MoM DEC 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% -- 01/25/2011 19:00 CA Consumer Price Index YoY DEC 2.50% 2.40% 2.00% -- 01/25/2011 19:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core MoM DEC -0.10% -0.30% 0.00% -- 01/25/2011 19:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core YoY DEC 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% -- 01/25/2011 21:00 US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind NOV -- 143.85 145.32 145.26 01/25/2011 21:00 US S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA NOV -0.80% -0.54% -0.99% -1.00% 01/25/2011 21:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY NOV -1.60% -1.59% -0.80% -0.84% 01/25/2011 22:00 US Consumer Confidence JAN 54 60.6 52.5 53.3 01/25/2011 22:00 US House Price Index MoM NOV 0.00% 0.00% 0.70% 0.20% 01/25/2011 22:00 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index JAN 22 18 25 -- 01/26/2011 04:00 SK SK Consumer Confidence JAN -- 108 109 -- 01/26/2011 05:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence Jan-23 -42 -44 -43 -- 01/26/2011 06:00 SK GDP at Constant Price (QoQ) 4Q P 0.40% 0.50% 0.70% -- 01/26/2011 06:00 SK GDP at Constant Price (YoY) 4Q P 4.60% 4.80% 4.40% -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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