KBank daily jan 17
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KBank daily jan 17 KBank daily jan 17 Document Transcript

  • Capital Markets Research Jan 17, 2011Thai Stock Market Jan 14 Change US Market Jan 14 ChangeSET Index 1032.26 -2.82 Dow Jones 11,787.38 +55.48Market Turnover (Bt mn) 44,127.10 +5,061.94 Nasdaq 2,662.88 -4.39Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -4,322.52 -4,267.21 S&P 500 1,293.24 +9.48Thai Bond Market Jan 14 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.33 +3 bpTotal Return Index 201.29 +0.10 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.58 -0 bpTotal Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 91.54 +0.14Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yrJan 14 (%) 1.94 2.03 2.26 2.58 2.86 3.06 3.20 3.52 3.78 3.91 4.02 4.16Change (bp) 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -6 -6 -1 0 1 1Interbank Rates Jan 17 Jan 13 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yrOvernight (%) 2.25 1.750-2.210 Jan 14 2.25625 2.27125 2.31625 2.37500 2.46484 2.54750 2.65000Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 14 2.00000 2.00000 - - Jan 14 0.27110 0.31100 0.46800THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 14 0.59483 0.70517 0.99296 1.32750 1.60226 1.86021 Jan 14 0.26125 0.30313 0.45594SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yrJan 17 Bid/Ask 1.68/1.72 2.34/2.38 2.86/2.90 3.25/3.29 3.51/3.55 3.88/3.92 4.22/4.26KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/ImportUSD 30.34 30.44 30.69 0.00/1.71EUR 40.3875 40.5213 41.0388 -2.57/1.06GBP 47.9800 48.1388 48.7200 -1.95/0.86JPY 0.3639 0.3651 0.3719 -0.48/3.75KBank Technical Analysis Jan 17 Jan 14 Support Resistance Trend StrategyTHB (Onshore) 30.55 30.46 30.50 30.65 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceJPY 82.89 82.94 82.40 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceEUR/USD 1.3335 1.3375 1.3310 1.3435 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • U.S. stocks rose for the week on reduced eurozone’ debt concerns and optimism regarding Q4 corporate earnings while Friday’s data were mixed • China raised reserve requirement ratio for the 4th time in about two months, affirming determination to fight inflation • Market focus on EU minsters’ meeting early week and shift towards the meeting between the Hu Jintao and Obama on Wednesday FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD rose to a high near 1.3458 on Friday before declining to a close of 1.338. Euro was supported by positive outlook on EU’s future measures to deal with the debt problems • USD/THB closed slightly higher due to some USD buying from importers and concerns of monetary tightening in Asia. This week, the baht may range between 30.20-30.60 to a dollar Economic News Update • Chinese President rejected U.S. arguments that allowing the yuan to appreciate against the dollar would help the government in Beijing tame inflation • European finance chiefs start work today on a revamped debt-crisis-fighting strategy with Germany easing its opposition to an expanded arsenal Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein wasobtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 shifted to the meeting between China’s Premier and the Macro and Market Outlook U.S. president. Issues, political and economic, would be on U.S. stocks ended Friday and last week higher, mainly due the table and the market is watching out for directions of to the positive prospects of corporate earnings for the the yuan. fourth quarter of last year. JP Morgan reported a record high profit. Meanwhile, investors are also optimistic that they will hear positive news regarding Eurozone’s debt US Treasuries and Thai rates problems as finance ministers meet on Monday and Tuesday to discuss further solutions. The difference between 2- and 30- year Treasury yields However, caution was also exercised as China announced widened to a record as investors demanded higher on Friday a higher reserve requirement ratio for commercial compensation when buying longer-term securities on banks. The RRR was raised from 18.5% to 19.0%. This concern a strengthening U.S. economy will spur inflation. was the 4th increase in a short span of about two months th and recorded the 7 increase since 2010. Commodities The so-called yield curve steepened to 3.96 percentage including gold and industrial metals declined sharply, with points yesterday, compared with an average of 2.07 gold ending near $1,359/ounce on Friday. percentage points the past 10 years. Treasuries fell yesterday as reports showed retail sales and industrial This reinforces China’s stance against fighting inflation and production both rose in December. The Federal Reserve restoring stability to its economy. The market is expecting will buy up to $21.5 billion in Treasuries next week, further interest rate hikes this year, coupled with a stronger including inflation-indexed securities. Chinese yuan and a slower rate of growth. This morning, “Rates are headed generally higher from here as we see a the economy reported the eight month of deceleration in its slow recovery, trending higher,” said Jay Mueller, who property price index (6.4% yoy in Dec vs. 7.7% in Nov, the manages about $3 billion of bonds at Wells Fargo Capital slowest pace since November 2009). Management in Milwaukee. 7000 14 The yield on the 30-year bond rose five basis points, or 12 0.05 percentage point, to 4.53 percent, from 4.485 percent 6000 10 on Jan. 7, according to BGCantor Market Data 5000 8 6 (Source: Bloomberg) 4000 4 3000 2 0 S&P Index (% ) 2000 1400 350 -2 1000 -4 1300 300 Nov-06 May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 1200 1100 250 Shanghai Composite (month end, left axis) China Property Price index % yoy (right axis) 1000 900 200 U.S. – Today, the financial markets are closed for a public 800 150 holiday. Last Friday, data were mixed but still offered 700 600 100 positive signs of continued recovery. Advance retail sales Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 figure in Dec was lower than market’s forecast but gained 0.6% mom nevertheless. For the whole of 2010, retails S&P Index 2-10 Spread (bps, RHS) sales rose by 7.0% from 2009, signaling an improvement in consumer spending. Business inventories rose less than forecast by 0.2% in Nov as sales accelerated faster than stocks. Meanwhile, capacity utilization continued to rise as Thai interest rate: IRS yields opened lower on Friday, production activities continued to pick up (76.0% in Dec). A led by the declines in front-end swap points as banks less optimistic data was the consumer sentiment index reduce long positions in the THB in the FX swap market. which fell from 74.5 at end-Dec to 72.7 in mid-Jan, due to Meanwhile, bond yields also closed 2-5bp lower on Friday. the concerns of rising energy prices and the jobless Local mutual funds continued to sell mid curve bonds and recovery. the sales were supported by continued offshore demand 120 and liquidity from local cooperatives 110 100 % Interest rate swaps 90 4.0 80 70 3.5 60 3.0 50 40 2.5 30 2.0 20 1.5 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Conference Board Consumer Confidence index Consumer sentiment index (U Mich) 1.0 1-Nov 11-Nov 21-Nov 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y This week, large firms such as IBM, GE, BofA, Citigroup and so forth are announcing their Q4 earnings. The results are likely to help underpin market views for the medium term. Meanwhile, mid-week the attention is likely to be 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Thu 13-Jan-11 Wed 12-Jan-11 % Change 1.44 1.42 USD/THB 30.48 30.41 +0.23 1.40 1.38 USD/JPY 82.81 82.80 +0.01 1.36 EUR/USD 1.338 1.335 +0.19 1.34 1.32 GBP/USD 1.5869 1.5835 +0.21 1.30 1.28 USD/CHF 0.9630 0.9640 -0.10 1.26 USD/SGD 1.2873 1.2853 +0.16 1.24 1.22 USD/TWD 29.16 28.98 +0.62 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 USD/KRW 1,114.6 1,112.0 +0.23 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.27 44.08 +0.43 EUR/USD rose to a high near 1.3458 on Friday before USD/IDR 9,054 9,068 -0.15 declining to a close of 1.338, little changed compared to USD/MYR 3.058 3.053 +0.16 Thursday’s close. The euro had been buoyed by investors’ positive outlook on EU’s future measures to deal with the USD/CNY 6.591 6.604 -0.21 Source: Reuters debt problems and ECB’s Trichet’s comments on rising .FX Consensus Forecast inflation in the Eurozone (which in turn, bolstered possibility of interest rate pick up relative to the U.S. fed fund rate) Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 USD/THB 30.58 28.30 28.00 37.50 80 USD/JPY 82.94 86.00 89.00 37.00 81 EUR/USD 1.33 1.30 1.30 36.50 82 GBP/USD 1.58 1.55 1.55 36.00 83 USD/CNY 6.59 6.46 6.30 35.50 84 USD/SGD 1.29 1.27 1.25 35.00 85 USD/IDR 9,073 8,860 8,800 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan USD/MYR 3.06 3.03 2.97 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/PHP 44.42 42.80 42.00 USD/JPY continued in range trade, closing little changed USD/KRW 1,114 1,090 1,050 at 82.80. This morning, BOJ’s governor reaffirmed view of USD/TWD 29.02 29.30 28.60 the central bank that the global markets are more stable AUD/USD 0.99 0.99 0.96 currently and that the local economy is improving slowly. Remaining concerns lie with the European debt problems, NZD/USD 0.77 0.76 0.75 Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 30.90 Currency Pair Targets 30.70 Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 30.50 USD/THB 30.58 28.30 28.0 30.30 30.10 EUR/THB 40.78 40.0 37.0 29.90 JPY/THB 36.87 34.70 29.5 29.70 GBP/THB 48.45 47.40 43.7 29.50 CNY/THB 4.64 4.78 4.2 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 AUD/THB 30.19 27.4 26.0 USD/THB CHF/THB 31.68 29.6 27.7 USD/THB closed slightly higher on Friday due to some Source: KBank, Bloomberg USD buying from importers and concerns of monetary tightening in Asia. This week, we expect the baht to range KBank NEER Index between 30.20-30.60 to a dollar. Current 99.37 YTD + 6.71% The Singapore real estate stocks fell 2-4% on Friday after authorities imposed stricter rules for the property sector, vs 52 weeks ago + 6.39% including higher tax penalty for homes sold within a year of vs 1mth ago - 2.44% purchase and raising down payment to 40% for second vs 1 week ago - 0.21% mortgages. vs 1 day ago + 0.00% Meanwhile, China raised banks’ reserve requirement ratio vs long term average + 11.76% for the fourth time in two months’ period, from 18.5% to Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange 19.0%, in a further attempt to reduce liquidity and make rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation borrowing more costly in the economy. USD/CNY reference rate is set little changed at 6.5897 today vs. Friday’s 6.5896. 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request. View slide
  • KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BOT Bonds Jan 14 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.07 1.82 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.70 2.59 2.48 2.37 2.26 2.15 2.04 1.92 1.56 CB11201A 0.04 85,000 1.990/2.048 2.029420 1.36 LB11NA 3.62 3.33 3.05 2.76 2.48 2.20 1.91 1.63 1.09 Source: ThaiBMA LB123A 4.22 3.83 3.45 3.06 2.67 2.28 1.90 1.51 0.87 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB12NA 5.35 4.72 4.09 3.46 2.83 2.21 1.58 0.95 0.07 LB133A 6.00 5.24 4.48 3.73 2.97 2.22 1.46 0.70 -0.30 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB137A 6.56 5.68 4.80 3.92 3.04 2.16 1.28 0.40 -0.73 LB13OA 6.99 6.01 5.04 4.06 3.09 2.11 1.14 0.17 -1.06 LB17OA 7.09 10,000 19-Jan-11 10-Oct-17 - LB143A 7.29 6.25 5.21 4.17 3.13 2.09 1.05 0.01 -1.28 LB14NA 4.00 8,000 19-Jan-11 26-Nov-14 - LB145A 7.80 6.64 5.47 4.31 3.14 1.98 0.81 -0.35 -1.76 LB21DA 11.08 7,000 26-Jan-11 17-Dec-21 - LB145B 7.80 6.63 5.47 4.31 3.14 1.98 0.81 -0.35 -1.76 Source: ThaiBMA LB14DA 8.63 7.28 5.93 4.58 3.23 1.88 0.52 -0.83 -2.42 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB155A 9.37 7.83 6.29 4.75 3.22 1.68 0.14 -1.40 -3.18 Tenor Amt. LB157A 9.23 7.73 6.23 4.73 3.23 1.73 0.23 -1.27 -3.02 Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark (yrs) (Bt mn) LB15DA 10.21 8.46 6.72 4.97 3.23 1.48 -0.26 -2.01 -4.00 - CB11217C 0.08 25,000 18-Jan-11 17-Feb-11 LB167A 10.90 9.02 7.15 5.27 3.40 1.52 -0.35 -2.23 -4.35 CB11421B 0.25 22,000 18-Jan-11 21-Apr-11 - LB16NA 11.45 9.45 7.44 5.44 3.44 1.44 -0.57 -2.57 -4.82 CB11721A 0.50 15,000 18-Jan-11 21-Jul-11 - LB171A 11.52 9.52 7.51 5.50 3.49 1.48 -0.53 -2.53 -4.79 LB175A 12.07 9.93 7.80 5.66 3.52 1.39 -0.75 -2.89 -5.27 BOT13NA 3.00 40,000 25-Jan-11 18-Nov-13 - LB183A 13.17 10.77 8.37 5.98 3.58 1.19 -1.21 -3.60 -6.24 CB11224C 0.08 25,000 25-Jan-11 24-Feb-11 - LB183B 12.87 10.55 8.23 5.90 3.58 1.26 -1.06 -3.38 -5.95 CB11428B 0.25 22,000 25-Jan-11 28-Apr-11 - LB191A 13.88 11.32 8.76 6.20 3.64 1.08 -1.47 -4.03 -6.83 CB11728A 0.50 15,000 25-Jan-11 28-Jul-11 - LB196A 14.81 12.01 9.22 6.42 3.63 0.84 -1.96 -4.75 -7.79 Source: ThaiBMA LB198A 14.37 11.70 9.03 6.36 3.69 1.02 -1.65 -4.31 -7.23 LB19DA 14.95 12.16 9.36 6.57 3.77 0.98 -1.81 -4.60 -7.64 LB213A 16.08 13.02 9.96 6.90 3.84 0.79 -2.27 -5.32 -8.62 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB214A 15.95 12.93 9.91 6.89 3.87 0.85 -2.16 -5.18 -8.44 cash balance. LB22NA 18.02 14.50 10.98 7.46 3.95 0.43 -3.08 -6.59 -10.35 LB233A 18.08 14.56 11.03 7.50 3.98 0.46 -3.06 -6.58 -10.34 LB236A 19.53 15.65 11.76 7.88 3.99 0.11 -3.76 -7.64 -11.76 LB244A 19.67 15.76 11.85 7.95 4.05 0.15 -3.75 -7.65 -11.79 LB24DA 20.28 16.22 12.17 8.12 4.07 0.02 -4.02 -8.07 -12.36 LB267A 20.82 16.65 12.48 8.32 4.16 0.00 -4.16 -8.32 -12.72 LB283A 22.08 17.60 13.13 8.66 4.19 -0.27 -4.73 -9.19 -13.90 LB296A 23.79 18.90 14.00 9.10 4.21 -0.67 -5.56 -10.44 -15.57 LB383A 28.07 22.11 16.17 10.22 4.28 -1.65 -7.58 -13.50 -19.67 LB396A 29.40 23.12 16.84 10.58 4.31 -1.94 -8.19 -14.44 -20.93 Average 12.96 10.59 8.21 5.84 3.47 1.10 -1.27 -3.64 -6.26 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request. View slide
  • KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 Economic News Update EU Begins Talks on Rescue Revamp as Germany Signals Flexibility: European finance Inflation Won’t Drive Yuan Appreciation, chiefs start work today on a revamped debt-crisis-fighting strategy with Germany easing its opposition to an China’s Hu Tells Papers: Chinese President Hu expanded arsenal and Portugal insisting it will get by Jintao rejected U.S. arguments that allowing the yuan to without an aid package. appreciate against the dollar would help the government in Beijing tame inflation. Germany, the leading power in the 17-nation euro region, is eyeing a March deadline for bolstering the 440 billion- Hu, who will meet President Barack Obama in Washington euro ($589 billion) rescue fund, drawing up a permanent this week, made the comments in responses to written aid facility and rewriting the bloc’s budget-deficit rules. questions from the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post, the newspapers reported on their websites. A rising euro and successful bond auctions in Portugal, Spain and Italy offered a respite last week from market The Chinese president said his government is fighting pressure for steps that go beyond the emergency aid inflation with a package of policies, including interest rate program and the European Central Bank’s unprecedented increases, and that rising prices can “hardly be the main bond purchases. factor in determining the exchange rate policy,” according to a transcript of the answers. He said the increase in the “European leaders need their backs to the wall in order to cost of living is “on the whole moderate and controllable,” complete their monetary union,” Barry Eichengreen, an according to the transcript. economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley, said on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Prices are climbing faster in China than in the U.S., making Midday” with Tom Keene. “I’m still convinced that’s what Chinese goods less competitive, Treasury Secretary they’re about to do.” Timothy F. Geithner said last week. Speaking in Washington on Jan. 12, he said that, while the yuan was Germany endorsed the need for a “comprehensive” still “substantially undervalued,” the “fundamental forces approach to stemming the debt contagion amid concern that are pushing Chinese productivity growth and are that Greece and Ireland, recipients of 178 billion euros in pushing inflation higher will bring about the necessary European and International Monetary Fund loans last year, adjustment in exchange rates.” will struggle to nurse their economies back to health. U.S. lawmakers argue that an undervalued yuan hurts U.S. Still, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble manufacturers and widens the U.S. trade deficit by resisted an appeal by the European Commission, the bloc’s artificially holding down the price of exported Chinese central regulator, for an upgraded anti-crisis toolbox to be goods. unveiled as soon as a Feb. 4 summit of national leaders. While “there are some differences and sensitive issues” “We’re working on a comprehensive package so that we between the two countries, Hu said, “we both stand to gain don’t find ourselves in a situation every few months in from a sound China-U.S. relationship, and lose from which we have to start discussions all over again,” confrontation.” Schaeuble said on Jan. 13. “A fundamental decision is to be taken in March.” The current international currency system, with the dollar’s primacy in as a reserve currency and in trade is “the Euro-area finance ministers meet at 5 p.m. today in product of the past,” Hu also told the newspapers. Brussels. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman, and European Union Economic and He pointed to China’s effort to expand the role of the yuan Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn will brief the press in in cross-border trading and investment, while late evening. acknowledging it “will be a fairly long process” to make it a fully fledged international currency. Europe’s political sands are shifting even as Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates says the country is beating In an allusion to the Federal Reserve’s policy of buying deficit-cutting targets and doesn’t need a rescue. The ECB $600 billion of Treasuries to stimulate the economy, Hu told indicated that its focus may move from maintaining interest the newspapers that U.S. monetary policy has a “major” rates at a record-low 1 percent to combating inflation, impact on global liquidity and on capital flows. which reached a two-year high of 2.2 percent in December. (Source: Bloomberg) Hu pledged to “continue to improve laws and regulations concerning foreign investment,” and offer “a stable and transparent legal and policy environment.” He said U.S. companies have a level playing field in his country and their “innovation, production and business operations in China enjoy the same treatment as Chinese enterprises.” Market Strategists: (Source: Bloomberg) Nalin Chutchotitham Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  • KBank Daily Update Jan 17, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/14/2011 12:00 SI Retail Sales Ex Auto NOV 5.80% 5.40% 5.30% 5.60% 01/14/2011 12:00 SI Retail Sales (YoY) NOV -2.40% -2.40% -2.80% -2.60% 01/14/2011 12:00 SI Retail Sales (MoM) sa NOV 0.90% 0.60% 0.90% 1.30% 01/14/2011 12:40 PH M3 Money Supply (YoY) NOV -- 7.50% 7.70% -- 01/14/2011 12:45 PH Bank Lending Net of RRPs (YoY) NOV -- 9.00% 8.40% -- 01/14/2011 12:45 PH Bank Lending (YoY) NOV -- 10.30% 9.10% -- 01/14/2011 13:30 IN Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% DEC 8.40% 8.43% 7.48% -- 01/14/2011 14:00 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) DEC F 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% -- 01/14/2011 14:00 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) DEC F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% -- 01/14/2011 14:00 EC EU 25 New Car Registrations DEC -- -3.20% -7.10% -- 01/14/2011 14:30 TH Forward Contracts Jan-07 -- $17.7B $19.6B -- 01/14/2011 14:30 TH Foreign Reserves Jan-07 -- $172.4B $172.1B -- 01/14/2011 16:00 IT Trade Balance (Total) (Euros) NOV -- -3382M -2007M -2009M 01/14/2011 16:00 IT Trade Balance Eu (Euros) NOV -- -1438M -1004M -1006M 01/14/2011 16:45 EC Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) DEC 1.10% 1.10% 1.10% -- 01/14/2011 16:45 EC Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) DEC 0.60% 0.60% 0.10% -- 01/14/2011 16:45 EC Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) DEC 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 1.90% 01/14/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance sa NOV 1.7B -1.9B 3.6B 3.5B 01/14/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Trade Balance NOV 3.3B -0.4B 5.2B 4.7B 01/14/2011 17:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) DEC F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% -- 01/14/2011 17:00 IT CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) DEC F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% -- 01/14/2011 17:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) DEC F 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% -- 01/14/2011 17:00 IT CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) DEC F 2.00% 2.10% 2.00% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Consumer Price Index (MoM) DEC 0.40% 0.50% 0.10% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) DEC 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Consumer Price Index (YoY) DEC 1.30% 1.50% 1.10% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) DEC 0.70% 0.80% 0.80% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US CPI Core Index SA DEC 222.2 222.187 221.982 -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Consumer Price Index NSA DEC 219.1 219.179 218.803 -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Advance Retail Sales DEC 0.80% 0.60% 0.80% -- 01/14/2011 20:30 US Retail Sales Less Autos DEC 0.70% 0.50% 1.20% 1.00% 01/14/2011 20:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas DEC 0.30% 0.40% 0.80% 0.60% 01/14/2011 21:15 US Industrial Production DEC 0.50% 0.80% 0.40% 0.30% 01/14/2011 21:15 US Capacity Utilization DEC 75.60% 76.00% 75.20% 75.40% 01/14/2011 21:55 US U. of Michigan Confidence JAN P 75.5 72.7 74.5 -- 01/14/2011 22:00 US Business Inventories NOV 0.70% 0.20% 0.70% 0.80% 01/17/2011 06:30 AU TD Securities Inflation YoY% DEC -- 3.80% 3.90% -- 01/17/2011 06:30 AU TD Securities Inflation MoM% DEC -- 0.20% 0.40% -- 01/17/2011 07:00 CH China Property Prices DEC 7 6.4 7.7 -- 01/17/2011 07:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM) JAN -- 0.30% -3.00% -- 01/14/2011 12:00 SI Retail Sales Ex Auto NOV 5.80% 5.40% 5.30% 5.60% Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.