KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19

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MPC Meeting Oct 19, 2011

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KBank Capital Market Perspectives Oct 19

  1. 1. KBank Capital Market Perspectives Market Updates Macro / FX / Rates Policy rate steady on floods’ impact and global uncertainties 19 October 2011 Overview: Nalin Chutchotitham - Kasikornbank - The Bank of Thailand (BOT) held its policy rate unchanged at 3.50% today after nalin.c@kasikornbank.com having maintained a tightening-bias over the monetary policy during the past nine meetings since July 2010. - While the BoT continued to warn of remaining inflationary pressure during past policy statements, today’s reflection on economic trends differ by a large margin, with risk-weight clearly shifting to the “growth” side. In particular, the BoT noted a much weaker economic growth momentum in the U.S. and Europe. Also, debt crisis in the euro area continues to pose threats to the region’s banking sector and further contagion to the real sector of large economies in the group. The central bank also expressed some concerns over moderated exports growth in Asia while the flooding situation at home continued to worsen and likely to pose substantial impact on the Thai economy, especially for the country’s production capacity and logistics network. - On the positive side of things, the BoT expects that reconstruction efforts would help to lift domestic demand quickly and hence maintained a cautious note on inflationary pressure. We agree with this analysis so far but we would like to caution that the impacts to the manufacturing production capabilities could be more than expected, given that the supply chain of key industries (electronics and automobile) had been affected severely by the floods. Meanwhile, delayed and forgone income of a significant portion of the labor force could impede spending power of consumers in the next few months as well. - Inflationary pressure: We sensed the policymakers’ confidence from the statement that inflationary pressure would remain in check, given the policy rate at 3.50%. In addition, decelerating pace of growth, moderated oil prices and a more stable inflation expectation should all help to prevent the build up of inflationary pressure. Yet, Q4 could still see short-term surges in prices due to transportation difficulties and lower agricultural production.MPC had raised policy rate by 1.50% this year alone Bond yields showed market priced in the pause % % Government bond yield curve 4.5 4.25 4.0 4.00 3.5 3.75 3.0 3.50 2.5 3.25 2.0 3.00 1.5 2.75 1.0 2.50 0.5 2.25 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Repo rate 12m deposit rate MLR - 4% policy rate 2y 5y 10ySource: Bloomberg, KBank Source: Bloomberg, KBank 11 1
  2. 2. - Rate cut speculations: The MPC deemed that the current level of policy rate is still accommodative for growth, indicating that a rate cut is not likely in the next th meeting on November 30 unless the abovementioned risks to the global economy and domestic growth momentum are suspected to be deeper than thought. We will see new forecasts by the BoT on October 28th when the Inflation Report is released. However, we should note that one MPC member voted in favor of a rate cut today while the remaining six called for a pause. A rate cut is a classic response after a major disaster and had been employed by New Zealand after the Christchurch earthquake. We expect that the policy rate would remain on hold until the end of the year 2012 on account of weak global economic growth next year.GDP Growth %YoY and %QoQ SET index in range trade % Index Foreign daily net buy of Thai stocks $ mn 15 1200 400 12.0 1150 300 9.2 10 1100 200 5.9 6.6 3.7 3.8 1050 100 5 2.7 2.9 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.3 2.0 1000 0 0.2 0 950 -100 -0.4 -0.2 900 -200 -2.4 -2.8 -5 850 -300 -5.2 -7.0 GDP yoy GDPsa qoq 800 -400 -10 Jul Aug Sep Oct 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 SET Index (left axis) Foreign net buy (daily, $ mn, right axis)Source: NESDB, KBank Source: Bloomberg, KBank MPC Decision on 24th August 2011 MPC Decision on 19th October 2011 Mr. Paiboon Kittisrikangwan, Assistant Governor, Bank of Mr. Paiboon Kittisrikangwan, Secretary of the Monetary Policy Thailand, announces the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) committee (MPC), announces the outcome of the meeting today, as follows. meeting today, as follows. The MPC assessed that the global economic outlook had deteriorated The MPC assessed that the risks to economic growth of the markedly as a result of the impasse over the resolution of the euro area’s advanced economies had increased as the US economic growth continued sovereign debt problem, which prompted a surge in financial market volatility to slow to a rate lower than expected. Core member economies in the euro on concerns that spillovers onto the banking sector and the real economy will area began to slow somewhat. Meanwhile, Asia is expected to be able to become more severe. Latest US economic data indicated a fragile recovery withstand some of the impact from the global economic slowdown due and market perception of a recession had increased. In Asia, export growth in to the resiliency of its domestic demand and exports as well as remaining some countries moderated in line with the global economic slowdown. monetary and fiscal policy space to stimulate the economies. Nonetheless, firm domestic demand and available fiscal policy space should help to cushion growth and trade within the region from the impact of a The MPC agreed that the slowdown in advanced economies slowdown in advanced economies. would partially weigh on Thai exports. However, expanding intra- regional trade in tandem with the continued growth of domestic Preliminary data for 2011 Q3 pointed to continued growth of the Thai demand in Asian economies as well as export diversification to new economy though the effects of a softer world economy became evident in the markets will help mitigate the impact. Domestic consumption and moderation in export growth. Going forward, intra-regional trade and domestic investment are expected to expand due to favorable employment demand, particularly from forthcoming government stimulus measures, would conditions, improved confidence, robust growth in credit demand, and help limit downside risks to growth. The MPC noted the severity of the fiscal stimulus going forward. floods, which had already brought about partial halt in some production sectors, and would substantially curtail economic growth in the Despite the slowdown in global oil and commodity prices, remaining part of the year from previously projected. Nevertheless, inflationary pressure remained as domestic demand continued to expand reconstruction spending would provide support for domestic demand to amid fiscal stimulus. As a result, inflation expectations have risen. gradually pick up in the periods ahead. The MPC judged that, despite increased risk on growth Inflationary pressure continued to be sustained by growth in domestic emanating from risks on global growth compared to the previous meeting, demand, though declines in input costs, such as moderated oil prices from a the Thai economy retained its growth momentum but with heightened risks weaker global economy, as well as more stable inflation expectations would to inflation, together with a sub-normal policy rate. The MPC deemed it lessen inflationary pressure going forward. Nonetheless, upside risks to appropriate to continue policy rate normalization to contain inflation from higher public and private spending as the floods inflationary pressure. The MPC therefore decided with a 5-2 vote to raise recede would need to be monitored. the policy interest rate by 0.25 per cent, from 3.25 to 3.50 per cent, effective immediately. The MPC will closely monitor global economic developments The MPC deemed that the current level of the policy rate is and inflationary pressure and stands ready to take necessary action to appropriate in addressing upcoming inflationary pressure and supporting ensure sustainable growth for the Thai economy. economic adjustments amidst heightened uncertainty in the global economy. Meanwhile, with the floods not yet over, their impact on the economy was not fully evident. The MPC therefore voted 6 to 1 to hold the policy interest rate at the current level of 3.50 per cent, with one vote in favour of a 0.25 per cent decrease. The MPC would remain vigilant in monitoring developments of risks and stand ready to take appropriate policy actions.Source: Bank of Thailand Source: Bank of Thailand 22 2
  3. 3. Table 1. Monthly Key Economic Indicators Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11Manufacturing index 187.8 186.6 179.1 183.0 197.3 187.8 195.1 % YoY -3.0 -6.7 -8.1 -3.7 3.8 -0.7 7.0Industrial capacity utilization rate (%) 59.5 66.1 54.4 58.8 64.1 63.1 64.7Retail sales (% YoY) 20.1 17.4 14.8 15.7 16.0 18.1 n.a.Total vehicle sales (units) 77,213 93,008 67,283 55,851 70,259 72,902 79,043Motorcycle sales (units) 188,248 191,437 174,244 163,411 205,392 169,320 194,691Unemployed labor force (000 persons) 268 276 285 204 163 206 n.a.Unemployment rate 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 n.a.Consumer prices (% YoY) 2.87 3.14 4.04 4.19 4.06 4.08 4.29 4.03 core 1.45 1.62 2.07 2.48 2.55 2.59 2.85 2.92Producer prices (% YoY) 7.4 5.9 6.6 6.2 4.5 5.2 6.0 5.6External Accounts (USD mn, unless specified otherwise)Exports 18,406.0 21,072.0 17,243.0 19,284.0 20,816.0 21,098.0 20,940.0 % YoY 29.1 30.7 25.0 17.3 16.4 36.4 28.5Imports 15,320.0 17,325.0 15,932.0 17,098.0 17,017.0 16,546.0 20,235.0 % YoY 23.3 27.6 26.2 34.5 23.6 13.2 45.9Trade balance 3,086.0 3,747.0 1,311.0 2,186.0 3,799.0 4,552.0 705.0Tourist arrivals (000) 1,822 1,765 1,506 1,376 1,490 1,550 1,725 % YoY 12.8 22.7 35.9 68.8 56.3 23.2 36.0Current account balance 3,161.0 1,692.0 -350.0 -656.0 2,402.0 3,438.0 -697.0Balance of payments 4,271 1,365 3,570 -2,600 -972 541 -556FX reserves (USD bn) 179.2 181.5 189.9 186.2 184.3 187.6 189.4 180.1Forward position (USD bn) 17.7 20.8 21.4 23.5 24.4 26.4 26.3 27.3Monetary conditions (THB bn, unless specified otherwise)M1 1,346.3 1,345.6 1,347.0 1,395.8 1,336.6 1,336.3 1,345.2 % YoY 13.4 13.8 13.9 10.6 13.3 13.9 13.9M2 12,155.4 12,284.4 12,497.9 12,577.2 12,614.4 12,799.5 12,883.9 % YoY 13.8 13.2 15.4 14.3 16.3 17.6 17.5Bank deposits 10,834.2 10,893.1 10,982.1 11,094.3 10,994.0 11,077.8 11,162.6 % YoY 10.3 9.1 10.1 8.5 10.1 11.1 11.4Bank loans 10,209.7 10,308.2 10,376.2 10,517.7 10,679.0 10,718.9 10,899.9 % YoY 15.1 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.3 17.2Interest rates (% month end)BOT 1 day repo (target) 2.25 2.50 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.50Average large banks minimum lending rate 6.37 6.62 6.75 6.75 6.87 7.13 7.19 7.25Average large banks 1 year deposit rate 1.51 1.67 1.86 1.86 2.03 2.16 2.28 2.41Govt bond yield 1yr 2.68 2.83 3.00 3.15 3.50 3.64 3.48 3.57Govt bond yield 5yr 3.48 3.41 3.38 3.50 3.78 3.86 3.42 3.60Govt bond yield 10yr 3.89 3.75 3.70 3.79 3.91 4.02 3.51 3.75Key FX (month end)DXY US dollar index 76.89 75.86 72.93 74.64 74.30 73.90 74.12 78.55USD/THB 30.60 30.28 29.88 30.32 30.73 29.76 29.93 31.19JPY/THB 37.47 36.42 36.80 37.17 38.13 38.76 39.06 40.50EUR/THB 42.25 42.86 44.24 43.64 44.56 42.84 43.01 41.76Source: Bloomberg333
  4. 4. Disclaimer For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.444

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