KBank Capital Market Perspectives                                                                                         ...
Change in Asian currencies year-to-date                                             USD/THB vs. central bank’s USD forward...
Table 1. Monthly Key Economic Indicators                    May 10     Jun 10      Jul 10    Aug 10     Sep 10     Oct 10 ...
Disclaimer    For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as a...
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KBank capital market perspectives jan 18 trade

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KBank capital market perspectives jan 18 trade

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Transcript of "KBank capital market perspectives jan 18 trade"

  1. 1. KBank Capital Market Perspectives Market Updates Macro / FX / Rates Exports and imports at slower pace of growth 18 January 2011 Overview: The Customs Department today reported trade performance (customs-cleared) for December Nalin Chutchotitham - Kasikornbank period. Exports rose by 18.8% yoy, showing a deceleration from the overall growth rate of nalin.c@kasikornbank.com 20.8% in Q4. This was primarily due to a substantially high base in the year 2009 as well as the slow down in the pace of economic recovery of trading partners’ economies. Imports grew by 11.5% yoy, also decelerated compared to the Q4 growth rate of 20.1%. Trade balance in December increased to $1,295mn from $408mn in November. 2010 vs. 2010 – Annual exports growth was recorded at 28.1%, indicating a full recovery of Thailand’s exports after 2009’s decline of 14.3% which almost completely erased the growth of 15.5% earned during 2008. Exports value in 2010 at $195bn topped the year 2008’s value of $178bn. Annual imports was recorded at 36.5%, reflecting a strengthening domestic demand when compared to the heavy slump of 25.4% in 2009 and an increase of 28.1% in the year 2008. Imports value in 2010 at $182bn also topped the year 2008’s value of $179bn. For the whole year, trade balance surplus total $12.9bn, a decline compared to the year 2009’s surplus of $18.8bn. This was ascribed to the recovery of domestic economy and the resumption of active imports, especially for private investment. Going forward, we expect both exports and imports to continue growing, albeit at slower pace. These movements would be led by economic growth in trading partners’ economies as well as domestic demand growth. The baht is expected to see a slower pace of appreciation in the year 2011 after it had finished last year with 11% gain versus the greenback. This is likely to be supported by trade balance surplus and continued foreign capital flows. Export destination composition - Comparing exports in the year 2009 and the year 2010, there are significant declines in the share of exports to EU(15) (99.8% from 10.5%) and the U.S. (10.3% from 10.9%). on the other hand, there are noteworthy increases in the share of exports to mainland China (11.0% from 10.6%) and ASEAN(5) (16.4% from 15.1%) . As for the other export destinations, shares were little changed. Excluding China, exports share of emerging markets for Thai exports rose from 33.8% to 33.9%. Meanwhile, secondary markets accounted for 16.3% of total exports in the year, a slight decline from 16.5% in 2009 (includes Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, the Oceania and Canada).Exports, imports growth, Trade balance USD/THB % yoy 46 80 4000 44 60 3000 42 40 2000 40 20 1000 38 0 0 36 34 -20 -1000 32 -40 -2000 30 -60 -3000 28 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Trade balance ($ mn, right axis) Export, % yoy Import, % yoy USD/THBSource: Bloomberg, KBank Source: Bloomberg, KBank 11 1
  2. 2. Change in Asian currencies year-to-date USD/THB vs. central bank’s USD forward position $ bn INR -1.7% 25 29 PHP -1.6% 30 JPY -1.6% 20 31 THB -1.5% 15 32 IDR -0.7% 33 SGD 0.0% 10 34 MYR 0.2% 35 5 CNY 0.3% 36 KRW 0.8% 0 37 Change against USD, year-to-date TWD 0.9% Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% USD/THB (inverted, RHS) Forwards (LHS)Source: Bloomberg, KBank Source: Bloomberg, KBank 22 2
  3. 3. Table 1. Monthly Key Economic Indicators May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10Manufacturing index (ISIC) 185.0 194.2 190.1 183.7 201.5 191.6 191.6 % YoY 15.9 14.2 13.1 8.4 8.1 6.2 6.3Industrial capacity utilization rate (%) (ISIC) 64.3 65.4 64.8 63.6 64.4 63.9 63.6Retail sales (% YoY) 8.1 11.9 12.3 8.5 8.9 4.7 4.7Passenger car sales (units) 62,205 70,557 65,672 65,724 68,261 72,012 78,874Motorcycle sales (units) 138,558 168,389 175,926 153,256 147,932 145,916 154,971Unemployed labor force (000 persons) 586 459 346 353 343 355 390Commercial car sales (units) 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0Consumer prices (% YoY) 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8 3.0 core 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4Producer prices (% YoY) 8.0 11.5 11.1 10.7 9.1 6.3 5.9 6.7External Accounts (USD mn, unless specified otherwise)Exports 16,435.0 17,877.0 15,475.0 16,292.0 17,955.0 17,046.0 17,584.0 % YoY 42.5 47.1 21.2 23.6 21.8 16.6 28.7Imports 14,144.0 15,334.0 16,266.0 15,440.0 14,712.0 14,773.0 17,094.0 % YoY 53.6 38.3 36.5 41.8 15.7 14.4 35.0Trade balance 2,291.0 2,543.0 -791.0 852.0 3,243.0 2,273.0 490.0Tourist arrivals (000) 815 953 1,258 1,268 1,220 1,360 1,500 % YoY -11.8 -0.2 14.7 12.5 1.9 6.3 10.3Current account balance 1,172.0 821.0 -1,001.0 280.0 2,767.0 2,740.0 1,019.0Balance of payments -989 2,166 1,412 3,589 4,270 5,822 820FX reserves (USD bn) 143.4 147.1 151.5 154.7 163.1 171.1 168.2Forward position (USD bn) 13.0 12.2 11.0 12.1 11.1 12.6 15.3Monetary conditions (THB bn, unless specified otherwise)M1 1,261.9 1,180.2 1,173.0 1,181.4 1,175.5 1,202.3 1,235.4 % YoY 14.4 15.1 15.8 11.4 11.7 11.4 10.8M2 11,001.5 10,846.4 10,887.1 10,968.1 11,116.1 11,322.4 11,497.3 % YoY 6.7 6.9 8.7 8.4 9.8 11.1 11.0Bank deposits 10,229.1 9,983.3 9,974.5 10,015.9 10,091.6 10,204.1 10,389.3 % YoY 7.0 6.2 7.6 6.6 7.8 8.5 8.1Bank loans 9,101.2 9,196.7 9,219.7 9,299.8 9,432.7 9,580.5 9,743.9 % YoY 7.3 8.5 9.1 9.8 10.8 12.1 12.2Interest rates (% month end)BOT 1 day repo (target) 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00Average large banks minimum lending rate 5.86 5.86 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.12Average large banks 1 year deposit rate 0.68 0.68 0.98 0.98 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.32Govt bond yield 1yr 1.52 1.56 1.91 1.99 2.01 1.98 2.11 2.38Govt bond yield 5yr 3.06 2.99 3.08 2.69 2.56 2.83 2.98 3.26Govt bond yield 10yr 3.49 3.33 3.44 3.01 3.12 3.18 3.59 3.77Key FX (month end)DXY US dollar index 86.59 86.02 81.54 83.20 78.72 77.27 81.20 79.65USD/THB 32.52 32.45 32.24 31.27 30.35 29.94 30.21 30.15JPY/THB 35.63 36.62 37.29 37.14 36.34 37.18 36.11 37.00EUR/THB 40.02 39.71 42.08 39.65 41.38 41.76 39.22 39.93Source: Bloomberg333
  4. 4. Disclaimer For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.444

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