K bank daily jan 25

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K bank daily jan 25

  1. 1. Capital Markets Research Jan 25, 2011Thai Stock Market Jan 24 Change US Market Jan 24 ChangeSET Index 963.68 -42.89 Dow Jones 11,980.52 +108.68Market Turnover (Bt mn) 37,402.09 -144.71 Nasdaq 2,717.55 +28.01Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) -4,049.49 +3,654.00 S&P 500 1,290.84 +7.49Thai Bond Market Jan 24 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.41 -1 bpTotal Return Index 201.22 -0.21 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.62 +1 bpTotal Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 87.87 -1.24Yield Curve 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yrJan 24 (%) 1.95 2.01 2.23 2.56 2.88 3.08 3.29 3.56 3.80 3.92 4.02 4.17Change (bp) 1 0 0 0 2 1 6 4 3 1 0 0Interbank Rates Jan 25 Jan 21 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yrOvernight (%) 2.25 2.000-2.220 Jan 24 2.26000 2.28016 2.33000 2.38625 2.48484 2.55000 2.65000Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 24 2.25000 2.25000 - - Jan 24 0.27110 0.31100 0.46700THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6mJan 24 0.81184 0.85745 1.10162 1.38653 1.65160 1.89727 Jan 24 0.26000 0.30313 0.45469SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yrJan 25 Bid/Ask 1.76/1.80 2.43/2.46 2.93/2.97 3.31/3.35 3.58/3.62 3.93/3.97 4.25/4.29KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/ImportUSD 30.72 30.82 31.07 0.40/2.70EUR 41.5775 41.7125 42.2388 -1.37/1.53GBP 48.9213 49.0800 49.6663 -0.24/2.05JPY 0.3690 0.3701 0.3769 0.22/4.30KBank Technical Analysis Jan 25 Jan 24 Support Resistance Trend StrategyTHB (Onshore) 30.94 30.91 30.90 31.03 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceJPY 82.37 82.47 82.00 82.60 Sideway Sell USD near resistanceEUR/USD 1.3674 1.3643 1.3600 1.3740 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • During the past 5 days, the key stock indices in Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines were the hardest hit, falling by nearly 6.0% on the back of foreign and institutional investors’ proit- taking • USD/THB testing new highs and SET Index testing lower likely to remain local market’s focus today on top of the political demonstration • Oil fell to the lowest level in five weeks as Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi signaled OPEC may bolster production to meet increasing fuel demand FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD declined towards 1.354 intraday yesterday before rebounding above 1.3680 after positive PMI data from the euro zone helped to hold up strong sentiment • USD/THB closed higher to 30.95 yesterday and it is still testing higher on the back of stock sell- off by foreigners Economic News Update • Emerging-market consumer companies are valued at the most expensive levels on record just as surging food and energy costs curb household spending from Sao Paulo to Shanghai Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein wasobtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  2. 2. KBank Daily Update Jan 25, 2011 jobless claims on Thursday and first reading of the Q4 U.S. Macro and Market Outlook GDP on Friday. Positive corporate earning results in Q4 and outlook on increased M&A activities in the U.S. helped to boost U.S. US Treasuries and Thai rates major stock indices to positive closes yesterday. Meanwhile, stocks in Europe also closed slightly higher. Treasury two-year yields were near the highest level in two In Asia, the main concern are still rising price pressure and weeks before the government sells $35 billion of the monetary tightening. The Shanghai Composite index fell by securities today. more than 2.0% yesterday on rumors of a possible rate Rates on the notes were 38 basis points more than the hike by the Chinese authorities before the Chinese Lunar upper end of the Fed’s target range for overnight loans New Year. At the same time, Singapore reported an between banks, widening from 2010’s low of eight basis acceleration in its inflation rate in December – from 3.8% to points in November. Treasuries headed for a fourth 4.6% (higher than estimate of 4.5%). monthly loss in January on speculation economic growth will quicken in 2011. Thai SET index slumped 4.3% yesterday to close at 963.68, its lowest level since October 2010. During the The two-year note yielded 0.63 percent at 9:34 a.m. in past 5 days, the key stock indices in Thailand, Indonesia, Tokyo. The rate climbed to 0.64 percent yesterday, the and the Philippines were the hardest hit, falling by nearly highest level since Jan. 7. Benchmark 10-year rates were 6.0%. Jakarta composite and the SET index were two little changed at 3.40 percent. (Source: Bloomberg) among the top performing Asian indices in 2010. Although % % research houses saw 960 points as the support for the SET 3.6 0.8 index 1-2 months ago, foreigners and institutional 3.4 investors’ profit-taking sell-off may cause a deeper slump in 3.2 0.7 the stock market. 3.0 0.6 2.8 $ mn Foreign daily net buy of Thai stocks 2.6 0.5 1000 1100 2.4 0.4 800 1050 2.2 600 2.0 0.3 1000 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 400 950 200 10yr Treasury yield, % (left axis) 2yr Treasury yield, % (right axis) 900 0 -200 850 Thai interest rate: Local rates rose slightly yesterday, -400 800 partly led by some sell-off in the bond market and the Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan firming of swap points. Foreigners sold the longer-tenor bonds and bought into shorter ones while local investors Foreign net buy (daily, $ mn, left axis) SET Index (right axis) helped to buy up the longer bonds with their liquidity yesterday. The weakening USD/THB may have helped to Coupled with the political uncertainties facing Thailand at move the swap points as well, as commercial banks’ the moment, the volatility is likely to remain. Yellow-shirt reverted to take a long position in USD/THB and have to demonstration near the Government House will begin fund such position via sell-buy USD/THB in the FX swap today and the group is calling the government to take market, increasing the supply of the dollar for others concrete and resolute actions concerning disputed areas wishing to close their positions for asset swap. with Cambodia. Meanwhile, the upcoming election this year is also another key event for Thailand and its economy. % THB fixing rates and IRS 3.00 Oil market update (Bloomberg News) - Crude oil for 2.50 March delivery dropped $1.24 to $87.87 a barrel on the 2.00 NYMEX. Oil fell to the lowest level in five weeks as Saudi 1.50 Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi signaled OPEC may 1.00 bolster production to meet increasing fuel demand. Oil dropped 1.4 percent after al-Naimi said he was “optimistic” 0.50 about energy markets and that oil prices would be stable. 0.00 Saudi Arabia will have spare production capacity of about 4 1Wk 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 1Y IRS 1Y IRS 2Y million barrels a day to maintain the global “supply-demand current 5-day ago 3-m ago balance,” he said. % Focus today : USD/THB testing new high and the SET 3.8 index testing lower will remain local focus today. 3.4 Meanwhile, Japan and India will announce policy rates as 3.0 well. The U.K. will be the first among the G4 economies to 2.6 report GDP for the fourth quarter. 2.2 1.8 This week in focus: Obama’s State of the Union address, 1.4 U.S. home price index and consumer confidence on 1.0 Tuesday. Monetary policy decisions by BOJ on Tuesday May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 and the Fed on Wednesday. U.S. durable goods and policy rate 5y 1y 2y 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  3. 3. KBank Daily Update Jan 25, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Mon 24-Jan-11 Fri 21-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 30.95 30.65 +0.98 1.38 USD/JPY 82.48 82.58 -0.12 1.36 EUR/USD 1.364 1.362 +0.16 1.34 GBP/USD 1.5988 1.6001 -0.08 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9488 0.9587 -1.03 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2809 1.2829 -0.16 1.26 USD/TWD 29.05 29.08 -0.10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 USD/KRW 1,118.5 1,118.0 +0.04 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.45 44.40 +0.11 EUR/USD declined towards 1.354 intraday yesterday USD/IDR 9,050 9,057 -0.08 before rebounding above 1.3680 after positive PMI data USD/MYR 3.056 3.060 -0.15 from the euro zone helped to hold up strong sentiment, although manufacturing PMI in Germany declined slightly. USD/CNY 6.581 6.583 -0.03 Source: Reuters Irish government is still facing political trouble at home as a .FX Consensus Forecast political party pulled out of the coalition government Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 yesterday. Today, Ireland will move further on its 2011 budget plan which involves drafting details of its fiscal USD/THB 30.96 28.30 28.00 austerity measures that would secure continued USD/JPY 82.36 86.00 89.00 disbursement of financial aid from the EU to its economy. EUR/USD 1.37 1.29 1.30 38.00 80 GBP/USD 1.60 1.55 1.59 37.50 81 USD/CNY 6.58 6.47 6.30 37.00 82 USD/SGD 1.28 1.27 1.24 36.50 83 USD/IDR 9,053 8,880 8,800 36.00 USD/MYR 3.05 3.02 2.96 35.50 84 USD/PHP 44.43 42.60 41.50 35.00 85 1-Dec 11-Dec 21-Dec 31-Dec 10-Jan 20-Jan USD/KRW 1,117 1,088 1,050 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/TWD 29.01 29.05 28.55 AUD/USD 1.00 0.99 0.97 USD/JPY had been rather volatile during the past 5 NZD/USD 0.77 0.77 0.76 trading days but such volatility remained capped within the Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB 81.80 – 83.10 range. Currency Pair Targets Bloomberg news update: Finance Minister Noda said Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 Japan’s debt burden has risen to the point where it can’t reply on bond sales to cover revenue shortfall. While USD/THB 30.97 28.30 28.0 Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Fujii opposed changing the EUR/THB 42.31 40.0 37.0 law governing the Bank of Japan to force it to adopt an JPY/THB 37.56 34.70 29.5 inflation target. GBP/THB 49.52 47.40 43.7 31.50 31.30 CNY/THB 4.70 4.78 4.2 31.10 AUD/THB 30.79 27.4 26.0 30.90 30.70 CHF/THB 32.63 29.6 27.7 30.50 Source: KBank, Bloomberg 30.30 30.10 KBank NEER Index 29.90 29.70 Current 99.00 29.50 YTD + 6.31% Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 vs 52 weeks ago + 5.52% USD/THB vs 1mth ago - 2.68% USD/THB closed higher to 30.95 yesterday and it is still vs 1 week ago - 0.34% testing higher on the back of stock sell-off by foreigners. vs 1 day ago - 0.32% The USD/THB movement surprised us by surging past our vs long term average + 11.33% expectation of the 30.80 level. It could continue to test Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange higher in the near-term but we do expect some reversion to rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation an appreciation in the baht if export data continued to remain positive and current accounts remain in surplus for most of the year. 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  4. 4. KBank Daily Update Jan 25, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Jan 21 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 No auctions on Monday Jan 24th LB113A 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.09 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 1.89 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB116A 2.68 2.58 2.48 2.38 2.27 2.17 2.07 1.96 1.61 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB11NA 3.58 3.31 3.03 2.76 2.48 2.21 1.93 1.65 1.13 CB11208A 0.04 85,000 2.00/2.04 2.021470 0.93 LB123A 4.20 3.83 3.45 3.07 2.69 2.31 1.93 1.55 0.93 Source: ThaiBMA LB12NA 5.33 4.71 4.09 3.47 2.85 2.23 1.61 0.99 0.12 LB133A 5.97 5.22 4.47 3.72 2.98 2.23 1.48 0.73 -0.26 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB137A 6.51 5.63 4.76 3.89 3.02 2.15 1.28 0.41 -0.71 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB13OA 6.95 5.98 5.01 4.05 3.08 2.12 1.15 0.19 -1.03 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB143A 7.28 6.25 5.22 4.19 3.15 2.12 1.09 0.06 -1.22 LB21DA 11.08 7,000 26-Jan-11 17-Dec-21 - LB145A 7.86 6.71 5.55 4.40 3.24 2.09 0.93 -0.22 -1.63 Source: ThaiBMA LB145B 7.85 6.70 5.54 4.39 3.23 2.08 0.92 -0.23 -1.63 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB14DA 8.65 7.31 5.97 4.62 3.28 1.94 0.60 -0.74 -2.33 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB155A 9.43 7.90 6.37 4.84 3.32 1.79 0.26 -1.27 -3.05 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB157A 9.29 7.79 6.30 4.81 3.32 1.83 0.34 -1.15 -2.88 BOT13NA 3.00 40,000 25-Jan-11 18-Nov-13 - LB15DA 10.27 8.53 6.79 5.06 3.32 1.59 -0.15 -1.88 -3.87 - CB11224C 0.08 25,000 25-Jan-11 24-Feb-11 LB167A 10.87 9.00 7.14 5.27 3.41 1.55 -0.32 -2.18 -4.29 CB11428B 0.25 22,000 25-Jan-11 28-Apr-11 - LB16NA 11.44 9.45 7.46 5.46 3.47 1.48 -0.51 -2.51 -4.75 CB11728A 0.50 15,000 25-Jan-11 28-Jul-11 - LB171A 11.51 9.51 7.50 5.51 3.51 1.51 -0.49 -2.49 -4.74 Source: ThaiBMA LB175A 12.05 9.93 7.80 5.67 3.55 1.42 -0.70 -2.83 -5.20 LB183A 13.17 10.78 8.39 6.01 3.62 1.23 -1.15 -3.53 -6.17 LB183B 12.88 10.56 8.25 5.93 3.62 1.31 -1.00 -3.31 -5.87 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months LB191A 13.87 11.32 8.77 6.22 3.67 1.12 -1.42 -3.97 -6.77 during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB196A 14.80 12.02 9.23 6.45 3.66 0.88 -1.90 -4.68 -7.71 cash balance. LB198A 14.36 11.70 9.04 6.38 3.72 1.06 -1.60 -4.26 -7.16 LB19DA 14.93 12.15 9.36 6.58 3.79 1.01 -1.77 -4.56 -7.59 LB213A 16.05 13.00 9.96 6.91 3.86 0.82 -2.23 -5.27 -8.56 LB214A 15.93 12.91 9.90 6.89 3.88 0.88 -2.13 -5.13 -8.39 LB22NA 17.99 14.47 10.96 7.45 3.94 0.44 -3.07 -6.57 -10.32 LB233A 18.06 14.54 11.02 7.51 3.99 0.48 -3.03 -6.54 -10.29 LB236A 19.51 15.63 11.75 7.88 4.00 0.13 -3.74 -7.60 -11.72 LB244A 19.64 15.74 11.84 7.95 4.05 0.16 -3.73 -7.61 -11.75 LB24DA 20.24 16.20 12.15 8.11 4.07 0.03 -4.01 -8.04 -12.32 LB267A 20.79 16.63 12.47 8.31 4.16 0.01 -4.14 -8.28 -12.68 LB283A 22.05 17.58 13.12 8.66 4.21 -0.25 -4.70 -9.14 -13.84 LB296A 23.76 18.88 13.99 9.11 4.23 -0.65 -5.52 -10.39 -15.51 LB383A 28.02 22.09 16.15 10.22 4.30 -1.62 -7.53 -13.44 -19.60 LB396A 29.35 23.09 16.83 10.57 4.33 -1.92 -8.15 -14.39 -20.86 Average 12.95 10.59 8.22 5.86 3.50 1.14 -1.22 -3.58 -6.19 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  5. 5. KBank Daily Update Jan 25, 2011 Mumbai that the country is facing a “surge” in inflation, Economic News Update fueling concern he may increase borrowing costs at a policy meeting today. BRIC Inflation Imperils Consumer Stocks as Food Rises: Emerging-market consumer Futures traders in Brazil have boosted bets on higher companies are valued at the most expensive levels on interest rates after the heaviest rainfall in 44 years record just as surging food and energy costs curb threatened to curb food production. Russian consumer household spending from Sao Paulo to Shanghai. prices rose 8.8 percent in the 12 months to December, the most in a year, prompting Bank Rossii Chairman Sergey Shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Consumer Ignatiev to say last month he may lift borrowing costs in the Discretionary Index traded at a 15-year high of 2.6 times first quarter. (Source: Bloomberg) net assets last week, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Wynn Macau Ltd., owned by billionaire Stephen Wynn’s casino company, fetched a record 28 times forecast profit. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., India’s biggest sport-utility vehicle maker, has a price-to-book ratio 53 percent higher than global peers, while Brazil’s Cia. Hering, producer of Hering brand apparel, commands a 15 percent premium. Economic growth and supply shortages sent a United Nations gauge of food prices to a record last month, cutting the buying power of 2.8 billion people in Brazil, Russia, India and China who spend 19 percent of their income on groceries, compared with 6 percent in the U.S., Euromonitor International data show. Consumer shares were the second-worst performers among 10 industries in periods of rising inflation since 2001, according to Morgan Stanley. “Inflation has really thrown a curve ball,” Jacob De Tusch- Lec, who helps oversee about $17 billion as a London- based money manager at Artemis Investment Management, said in a Jan. 14 telephone interview. “With food prices and energy prices being so high -- and it’s a big portion of consumer spending in Asia -- that could put a bit of a stop to that story.” The MSCI emerging-market consumer index surged 36 percent during the past year, the best performance among 20 industry gauges worldwide, as investors lifted holdings to their biggest “overweight” position, data compiled by MSCI Inc. and Bank of America Corp. show. Profit at hotels, carmakers and retailers may get squeezed as input costs including oil rise faster than retail prices, according to Morgan Stanley. Consumer shares are “over-owned” and will probably trail the broader market, Jonathan Garner, the New York-based bank’s chief Asia and emerging-markets strategist, wrote in a Jan. 14 research report. The extra yield investors demand to own the debt of developing-nation retailers over U.S. Treasuries has climbed 148 basis points, or 1.48 percentage points, during the past year to 434 basis points, the highest level among seven industries, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s CEMBI+ Indexes. The jump in China’s inflation to the fastest pace since 2008 has prompted the central bank to raise its benchmark lending rate twice since October and lift banks’ reserve Market Strategists: requirements four times in about two months. India’s Nalin Chutchotitham central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said on Jan. 17 in Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  6. 6. KBank Daily Update Jan 25, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 01/24/2011 07:30 AU Producer Price Index (QoQ) 4Q 0.50% 0.10% 1.30% -- 01/24/2011 07:30 AU Producer Price Index (YoY) 4Q 3.20% 2.70% 2.20% -- 01/24/2011 10:32 CH Leading Index DEC -- 100.76 101.58 101.21 01/24/2011 12:00 JN Supermarket Sales (YoY) DEC -- -1.60% -0.50% -- 01/24/2011 12:00 SI CPI (MOM) - NSA DEC 0.40% 0.20% 0.30% -- 01/24/2011 12:00 SI CPI (YoY) DEC 4.50% 4.60% 3.80% -- 01/24/2011 14:40 VN CPI (YoY) JAN -- 12.20% 11.80% -- 01/24/2011 14:45 FR Business Survey Overall Demand JAN -- 28 16 14 01/24/2011 15:00 FR PMI Manufacturing JAN P 57.3 54.3 57.2 -- 01/24/2011 15:00 FR PMI Services JAN P 55.2 57.1 54.9 -- 01/24/2011 15:00 TA Commercial Sales (YoY) DEC 6.15% 5.42% 5.88% 5.91% 01/24/2011 15:00 TA Industrial Production (YoY) DEC 13.00% 18.18% 19.37% 19.21% 01/24/2011 15:00 TA Unemployment Rate - sa DEC 4.70% 4.73% 4.79% -- 01/24/2011 15:30 GE PMI Manufacturing JAN A 60.9 60.2 60.9 60.7 01/24/2011 15:30 GE PMI Services JAN A 59 60 58.3 59.2 01/24/2011 16:00 EC PMI Composite JAN A 55.6 56.3 55.5 -- 01/24/2011 16:00 EC PMI Manufacturing JAN A 57 56.9 57.1 -- 01/24/2011 16:00 EC PMI Services JAN A 54.3 55.2 54.2 -- 01/24/2011 17:00 EC Industrial New Orders NSA (YoY) NOV 17.40% 19.90% 14.80% -- 01/24/2011 17:00 EC Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) NOV 1.90% 2.10% 1.40% -- 01/25/2011 06:00 AU Conference Board Leading Index NOV -- 0.30% 0.60% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU Consumer Prices (QoQ) 4Q 0.70% 0.40% 0.70% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU Consumer Prices (YoY) 4Q 3.00% 2.70% 2.80% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Trimmed Mean (QoQ) 4Q 0.70% 0.30% 0.60% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Trimmed Mean (YoY) 4Q 2.60% 2.20% 2.50% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Weighted Median (QoQ) 4Q 0.70% 0.50% 0.50% -- 01/25/2011 07:30 AU RBA Weighted Median (YoY) 4Q 2.50% 2.30% 2.30% 2.40% 01/25/2011 08:00 PH Total Imports (YoY) NOV -- 35.30% 28.40% -- 01/25/2011 08:00 PH Total Monthly Imports NOV -- $4943.6M $4888.4M $4890.3M 01/25/2011 08:00 PH Trade Balance NOV -- -$798M -$112M -$114M 01/25/2011 13:00 IN India REPO Cutoff Yld Jan-25 6.50% -- 6.25% -- 01/25/2011 13:00 IN Cash Reserve Ratio Jan-25 6.00% -- 6.00% -- 01/25/2011 13:00 IN Reverse Repo Rate Jan-25 5.50% -- 5.25% -- 01/25/2011 14:00 GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey FEB 5.4 -- 5.4 -- 01/25/2011 14:45 FR Consumer Spending (MoM) DEC 0.30% -- 2.80% -- 01/25/2011 14:45 FR Consumer Spending (YoY) DEC 0.50% -- 1.50% -- 01/25/2011 15:20 TA Money Supply M1B Daily Avg YoY DEC -- -- 9.18% -- 01/25/2011 15:20 TA Money Supply M2 Daily Avg YoY DEC -- -- 5.20% -- 01/25/2011 15:30 HK Exports YoY% DEC 15.90% -- 16.60% -- 01/25/2011 15:30 HK Imports YoY% DEC 15.50% -- 16.40% -- 01/25/2011 15:30 HK Trade Balance DEC -36.5B -- -23.5B -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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