K bank daily feb 2

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K bank daily feb 2

  1. 1. Capital Markets Research Feb 2, 2011Thai Stock Market Feb 01 Change US Market Feb 01 ChangeSET Index 959.69 -4.41 Dow Jones 12,040.16 +148.23Market Turnover (Bt mn) 23,708.62 +2,416.38 Nasdaq 2,751.19 +51.11Foreign Net Position (Bt mn) +1,039.08 +1,922.72 S&P 500 1,307.59 +21.47Thai Bond Market Feb 01 Change US 10 yr T-note (%) 3.44 +6 bpTotal Return Index 200.55 +0.05 US 2yr T-note (%) 0.61 +5 bpTotal Market Turnover (Bt mn) NYMEX crude ($/b) 90.77 -1.42Change (bp) 1m 3m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 10yr 12yr 14yr 18yrFeb 01 (%) 2.03 2.10 2.27 2.56 2.96 3.22 3.40 3.63 3.84 4.04 4.14 4.21Change (bp) -2 -1 0 2 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1Interbank Rates Feb 02 Jan 31 BIBOR 1w 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yrOvernight (%) 2.25 2.050-2.270 Feb 01 2.26250 2.28891 2.34750 2.40000 2.50000 2.57750 2.67625Repurchase Rates 1-day 7-day 14-day 1m SIBOR 1m 3m 6mFeb 01 2.25000 2.25000 - - Feb 01 0.27100 0.30900 0.46550THBFIX (Ref.) 1m 2m 3m 6m 9m 1yr LIBOR 1m 3m 6mFeb 01 0.79581 0.83360 1.09497 1.43662 1.71374 1.94324 Feb 01 0.26300 0.31050 0.46075SWAP (THB/THB,Onshore) 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 7yr 10yrFeb 02 Bid/Ask 1.93/1.96 2.65/2.68 3.11/3.15 3.45/3.49 3.71/3.73 3.98/4.03 4.24/4.28KBank Counter Rates Buying Selling Premium/Discount (stgs/m)(against THB) Sight Bill T/T T/T Export/ImportUSD 30.57 30.67 30.92 0.25/2.70EUR 42.2150 42.3525 42.8850 -2.26/1.33GBP 49.2413 49.4025 49.9925 -0.72/2.22JPY 0.3735 0.3746 0.3816 -0.24/4.16KBank Technical Analysis Feb 02 Feb 01 Support Resistance Trend StrategyTHB (Onshore) 30.78 30.90 30.70 30.90 Sideway Buy USD near supportJPY 81.47 81.31 81.30 82.60 Sideway Buy USD near supportEUR/USD 1.3840 1.3833 1.3800 1.3880 Sideway Buy EUR near support Macro and Market Outlook • Manufacturing sector continues to see positive signs in Europe, the U.S. and several economies in Asia, helping to boost the rise in stock markets yesterday • Thailand’s headline inflation rate was little changed, at 3.03% compared to December’s 3.00%. Core inflation rate edged down slightly from 1.4% to 1.3% • Inflation rate continued to rise in South Korea and Indonesia, adding to concerns for inflationary pressure in Asia FX Market Wrap • EUR/USD rose to its highest level in about 6 weeks’ time at 1.3844 as positive manufacturing data in both the U.S. and Europe boosted investors’ risk appetite • USD/THB was little changed at 30.90 and it should continue to remain in range amid the mixed picture – local politics is a negative for THB assets but economic data remained positive Economic News Update • The national oil palm policy committee today approved a proposal to import an extra 120,000 tonnes of crude palm oil within in the next two months to ease the cooking oil shortage Now you can listen to today’s exchange rate trend (press 711) and our summary of exchange rate movements (press 721) via K-BIZ Contact Center 0 2888 8822, available 24 Hours www.twitter.com/KBankFX www.facebook.com/KBankFX 1For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein wasobtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  2. 2. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 Elsewhere in Asia, inflation continued to be among the Macro and Market Outlook headlines. Indonesia’s inflation rate rose slightly from S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 6.96% in December to 7.02% in January. However, the their new highs once again since before the financial crisis market still expects the central bank to remain pat on policy th in 2008. While political uncertainties remained in the Arab rate on February 4 although it continued to reduce nations, the market viewed that situations in Egypt should liquidity in the financial market. Meanwhile, South Korea’s have a limited impact for the near-term. It would depend inflation accelerated from 3.5% to 4.1%. also on how things evolve after Mubarak announced his plan to step down. Meanwhile, political situation locally is Bloomberg news - Asian central banks may need to raise not a positive factor for the stock market as well, especially interest rates further to limit the risk of overheating in their after the Cambodian court sentenced two Thai citizens to 6 economies and prevent a “hard landing,” International and 8 years of imprisonment for claimed espionage and Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss- PAD activists, nick-named yellow-shirts, continued to press Kahn said yesterday. the government for more actions to help the two Thais. Manufacturing sector update – U.S. ISM manufacturing US Treasuries and Thai rates index rose to 60.8 from 58.5 in the January’s reading, recording the fastest pace of increase in 6 years’ time Treasury yields were near a one-month high as the U.S. (consensus 58.0). In Europe, the euro zone’s PMI prepared to announce today how much it plans to sell in 3-, manufacturing index rose from 56.9 to 57.3. In the 10- and 30-year auctions next week. Scandinavia, Sweden’s and Norway’s indices also rose The difference between the Federal Reserve’s target for higher in January. Even in the U.K where growth is overnight loans between banks and 30-year yields widened deemed one of the weakest in the region, PMI index to 4.37 percentage points, the most in nine months. The increased from 58.7 to 62.0, an unexpectedly high rise. spread expanded as some economists said jobs reports today and on Feb. 4 will show employment isn’t growing In the larger Emerging Markets, Russia and India’s PMI for enough to lead the Fed to increase interest rates, though it the manufacturing sector were little changed but China’s may lead to faster inflation later. index declined in January, likely due to government’s measures such as stricter credit rules and liquidity Benchmark 10-year notes yielded 3.44 percent as of 10 reduction. a.m. in Tokyo, according to BGCantor Market Data. % YoY The U.S. will sell $32 billion of 3-year notes, $24 billion of 10.5 60 10-year debt and $16 billion of 30-year bonds next week, 10 55 according to 12 of the Fed’s 18 primary dealers, which are 9.5 required to bid in Treasury auctions. (Source: Bloomberg) 50 9 45 8.5 S&P Index (% ) 40 8 1500 4.5 7.5 35 1400 4.0 7 30 1300 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 1200 3.5 1100 Eurozone unemployment rate (LHS) Eurozone PMI manufacturing (RHS) 3.0 1000 900 2.5 800 Thai economic data update – consumer price index 700 2.0 increased by 0.5% from December to January, an Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 acceleration compared to the increase of 0.2% mom from S&P Index 10yr Treasury yield November. This was mainly a result of higher food and energy prices. Nevertheless, the headline inflation rate was Thai interest rate: The market’s concern for unrests in little changed, at 3.03% compared to December’s 3.00%. Core inflation rate edged down slightly from 1.4% to 1.3%. Egypt eased somewhat, gearing the short-dated USD/THB Still, we expect an up trend in inflation rates going forward. forward points slightly further away from zero and into the Global commodity prices remained on an up trend and positive territory. IRS rates edged up as a result, with the 1- continued expansion of the Thai economy is likely to year yield testing 1.91% level. Yesterday’s auction of 3- warrant continued growth in consumption and investment and 6-month BoT bills saw little demand compared to the demand. 1-month bills on the back of policy rate hike expectation. Bond market was rather quiet but investors continue to check market pricing for mid-curve bonds. 10% 8% % THB fixing rates and IRS 6% 3.00 4% 2.50 2% 2.00 0% 1.50 -2% 1.00 -4% -6% 0.50 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 0.00 1Wk 1M 2M 3M 6M 9M 1Y IRS 1Y IRS 2Y CPI yoy Core CPI yoy current 5-day ago 3-m ago 2 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  3. 3. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 FX Wrap Currency Movement Tue 01-Feb-11 Mon 31-Jan-11 % Change 1.42 1.40 USD/THB 30.90 30.87 +0.10 1.38 USD/JPY 81.32 82.07 -0.91 1.36 EUR/USD 1.383 1.369 +1.04 1.34 GBP/USD 1.6140 1.6014 +0.79 1.32 1.30 USD/CHF 0.9354 0.9440 -0.91 1.28 USD/SGD 1.2706 1.2790 -0.66 1.26 USD/TWD 29.03 29.03 -0.02 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 USD/KRW 1,114.3 1,119.3 -0.44 EUR/USD USD/PHP 44.16 44.22 -0.14 USD/IDR 9,005 9,043 -0.42 EUR/USD rose to its highest level in about 6 weeks’ time at 1.3844 as positive manufacturing data in both the U.S. USD/MYR 3.063 3.060 +0.10 and Europe boosted investors’ risk appetite. The pair USD/CNY 6.594 6.602 -0.12 closed at 1.383, about a per cent higher compared to the Source: Reuters previous day. At the same time, S&P also reaffirmed .FX Consensus Forecast Spain’s credit rating at AA, citing the government’s Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 conviction to bring budget deficit under control. USD/THB 30.79 29.50 29.00 38.50 80 USD/JPY 81.50 86.00 89.00 38.00 EUR/USD 1.38 1.30 1.30 82 37.50 GBP/USD 1.61 1.55 1.60 37.00 84 USD/CNY 6.57 6.45 6.29 36.50 USD/SGD 1.27 1.27 1.24 36.00 86 35.50 USD/IDR 9,020 8,900 8,825 35.00 88 USD/MYR 3.04 3.03 2.97 1-Nov 1-Dec 1-Jan 1-Feb USD/PHP 44.05 42.70 41.50 JPY/THB (LHS) USD/JPY (RHS, inverted axis) USD/KRW 1,104 1,090 1,050 USD/TWD 28.94 29.05 28.55 USD/JPY broke lower than previous low near 81.80 to 81.32 as the dollar weakened against major currencies AUD/USD 1.01 0.99 0.97 yesterday. Today, the yen may weaken slightly as demand NZD/USD 0.78 0.77 0.75 for safe assets decline after Egypt’s unrests sees a more Source: Bloomberg, KBank for USD/THB positive turn. Currency Pair Targets Spot Jun 2011 Dec 2011 USD/THB was little changed at 30.90, possibly kept low due to the appreciation in the Chinese yuan lately. The USD/THB 30.79 29.5 29.0 USD/THB should continue to remain in range amid the EUR/THB 42.61 40.0 37.0 mixed picture on the economy – local politics is a negative JPY/THB 37.78 34.70 29.5 for THB assets but economic data remained positive. GBP/THB 49.69 47.40 43.7 31.30 CNY/THB 4.67 4.78 4.2 31.10 30.90 AUD/THB 31.15 27.4 26.0 30.70 CHF/THB 32.89 29.6 27.7 30.50 Source: KBank, Bloomberg 30.30 30.10 KBank NEER Index 29.90 Current 97.99 29.70 29.50 YTD + 5.23% 1-Nov 16-Nov 1-Dec 16-Dec 31-Dec 15-Jan 30-Jan vs 52 weeks ago + 4.16% USD/THB vs 1mth ago - 2.51% vs 1 week ago + 0.37% vs 1 day ago + 0.00% vs long term average + 10.17% Note: NEER is constructed from the weighted average of bilateral exchange rates of the baht via Thailand’s 21 major trading partners and trade competitors. An increase in NEER refers to an appreciation 3 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  4. 4. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 Total Return Analysis – 3 month horizon, annualized Auction results of BoT Bonds Feb 01 Yield shift (bps) -40 -30 -20 -10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Bid- Tenor Amt. Accepted LB113A 2.10 2.12 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.20 2.21 2.23 2.00 Symbol Avg. Yield (%) coverage (yrs) (Bt mn) Range (%) ratio LB116A 2.70 2.61 2.51 2.42 2.32 2.23 2.14 2.04 1.70 CB11303D 0.08 25,000 2.04/2.10 2.079380 2.39 LB11NA 3.59 3.33 3.06 2.79 2.53 2.26 1.99 1.72 1.21 CB11506C 0.25 22,000 2.1139/2.200 2.159380 1.17 LB123A 4.18 3.81 3.44 3.07 2.70 2.33 1.96 1.59 0.97 CB11804B 0.50 15,000 2.28/2.36 2.318630 0.92 LB12NA 5.36 4.75 4.13 3.52 2.91 2.30 1.69 1.08 0.22 LB133A 6.02 5.28 4.54 3.80 3.06 2.32 1.58 0.84 -0.14 CB12202A 1.00 50,000 2.6295/2.700 2.682780 1.07 LB137A 6.58 5.72 4.86 4.00 3.14 2.27 1.41 0.55 -0.56 Source: ThaiBMA LB13OA 7.02 6.06 5.11 4.15 3.19 2.24 1.28 0.32 -0.88 Auction Calendar of BoT Bonds LB143A 7.38 6.36 5.34 4.31 3.29 2.27 1.25 0.23 -1.04 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB145A 7.93 6.79 5.64 4.49 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.48 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB145B 7.93 6.78 5.64 4.49 3.35 2.20 1.06 -0.09 -1.48 CB11310C 0.08 25,000 08-Feb-11 11-Mar-11 - LB14DA 8.73 7.39 6.06 4.73 3.40 2.07 0.74 -0.60 -2.18 CB11512B 0.25 22,000 08-Feb-11 12-May-11 - LB155A 9.50 7.98 6.46 4.94 3.42 1.90 0.38 -1.14 -2.90 CB118011A 0.50 15,000 08-Feb-11 11-Aug-11 - LB157A 9.36 7.88 6.40 4.92 3.44 1.96 0.48 -1.00 -2.73 - BOT142A 3.00 15,000 11-Feb-11 15-Feb-14 LB15DA 10.33 8.60 6.88 5.15 3.43 1.70 -0.02 -1.75 -3.72 BOT152A 4.00 15,000 22-Feb-11 24-Feb-11 - LB167A 10.93 9.07 7.22 5.36 3.51 1.66 -0.20 -2.05 -4.15 Source: ThaiBMA LB16NA 11.49 9.51 7.52 5.54 3.56 1.57 -0.41 -2.39 -4.62 LB171A 11.58 9.59 7.60 5.61 3.62 1.63 -0.35 -2.34 -4.58 Auction Calendar of Government Bonds LB175A 12.11 9.99 7.87 5.76 3.64 1.53 -0.59 -2.70 -5.06 Tenor Amt. Symbol Auction Date Maturity Date Remark LB183A 13.19 10.82 8.44 6.06 3.69 1.31 -1.06 -3.44 -6.06 (yrs) (Bt mn) LB183B 12.90 10.59 8.29 5.99 3.69 1.38 -0.92 -3.22 -5.77 LB316A 20.62 6,000 02-Feb-11 20-Jun-31 - LB191A 13.86 11.32 8.78 6.24 3.71 1.17 -1.37 -3.91 -6.69 LB15DA 5.32 10,000 09-Feb-11 11-Dec-15 - LB196A 14.82 12.04 9.27 6.49 3.72 0.95 -1.82 -4.59 -7.61 LB416A 30.65 5,000 16-Feb-11 14-Jun-41 - LB198A 14.63 11.91 9.20 6.48 3.77 1.06 -1.66 -4.37 -7.33 LB25DA 15.05 8,000 23-Feb-11 12-Dec-25 - LB19DA 14.92 12.14 9.36 6.59 3.81 1.04 -1.73 -4.51 -7.53 Source: ThaiBMA LB213A 16.05 13.01 9.97 6.94 3.90 0.87 -2.17 -5.20 -8.48 LB214A 15.93 12.93 9.93 6.93 3.94 0.94 -2.05 -5.05 -8.29 LB22NA 18.04 14.54 11.05 7.56 4.07 0.58 -2.91 -6.39 -10.13 LB233A 18.10 14.60 11.10 7.60 4.11 0.61 -2.88 -6.37 -10.11 * Note that the MOF suspends auction of Treasury bills for two months during January – February 2011. This is due to the large amount of Treasury LB236A 19.55 15.69 11.83 7.98 4.12 0.27 -3.58 -7.43 -11.53 cash balance. LB244A 19.67 15.79 11.91 8.03 4.16 0.29 -3.58 -7.45 -11.57 LB24DA 20.28 16.26 12.23 8.21 4.19 0.18 -3.84 -7.85 -12.11 LB267A 20.79 16.64 12.50 8.36 4.23 0.09 -4.04 -8.17 -12.55 LB283A 22.03 17.58 13.14 8.69 4.26 -0.18 -4.62 -9.05 -13.73 LB296A 23.74 18.87 14.00 9.13 4.27 -0.59 -5.45 -10.31 -15.41 LB383A 27.97 22.05 16.14 10.24 4.34 -1.56 -7.45 -13.33 -19.46 LB396A 29.30 23.06 16.82 10.58 4.35 -1.87 -8.09 -14.31 -20.76 Average 12.99 10.63 8.28 5.93 3.58 1.23 -1.12 -3.47 -6.07 Source: KBank, Bloomberg KBank Rich – Cheap Model 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 3 mth avg Now -40.00 LB296A LB113A LB116A LB11NA LB123A LB133A LB137A LB145B LB14DA LB155A LB15DA LB167A LB16NA LB175A LB183B LB191A LB196A LB198A LB19DA LB213A LB24DA LB267A LB283A LB396A Source: Bloomberg, KBank The 3-month average indicates the average differences between observed and derived yields 4 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  5. 5. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 Economic News Update 120,000 tonne palm oil import approved: The national oil palm policy committee today approved a proposal to import an extra 120,000 tonnes of crude palm oil within in the next two months to ease the cooking oil shortage. The first batch of 30,000 tonnes of imported palm oil previously approved failed to meet the shortfall, Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban said after the committee’s meeting on Tuesday. Mr Suthep, the committee’s chairman, said the extra 120,000 tonnes of palm oil should help end the shortage as fresh domestic palm oil supplies should be available from around the end of next month. He believed the Commerce Ministry should be able to manage the new import quota to ensure it helped both consumers and businesses, especially in the food industry. The committee would continue to monitor oil palm supplies and re-assess the situation every 15 days. Energy Minister Wannarat Channukul said over the next month or so the government would slow down the production of bio-diesel using palm oil, to ensure a larger amount was available for refining as household cooking oil and for the (Source: Bangkok Post) Market Strategists: Nalin Chutchotitham Email: nalin.c@kasikornbank.com Tel: 02-470-3235 5 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
  6. 6. KBank Daily Update Feb 2, 2011 Economic Calendar Date / Time Country Event Period Consensus Actual Prior Revised 02/01/2011 06:00 SK Consumer Price Index (MoM) JAN 0.70% 0.90% 0.60% -- 02/01/2011 06:00 SK Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN 3.80% 4.10% 3.50% -- 02/01/2011 06:00 SK Core Consumer Price Index(YoY) JAN -- 2.60% 2.00% -- 02/01/2011 07:00 SK HSBC Manufacturing PMI JAN -- 53.5 53.9 -- 02/01/2011 07:30 AU House Price Index QoQ 4Q -0.20% 0.70% 0.10% -0.30% 02/01/2011 07:30 AU House Price Index YoY 4Q 5.60% 5.80% 11.50% 10.80% 02/01/2011 08:00 CH PMI Manufacturing JAN 53.5 52.9 53.9 -- 02/01/2011 08:00 SK Ext Trade - Export (YoY) JAN 39.20% 46.00% 23.10% 22.60% 02/01/2011 08:00 SK Ext Trade - Imports (YoY) JAN 26.60% 32.90% 23.30% 21.70% 02/01/2011 08:00 SK Ext Trade - Balance in US$ Mln JAN 2520 2962 3743 4089 02/01/2011 08:30 JN Labor Cash Earnings YoY DEC 1.00% -0.40% -0.20% 0.20% 02/01/2011 09:30 CH HSBC Manufacturing PMI JAN -- 54.5 54.4 -- 02/01/2011 10:30 AU RBA CASH TARGET Feb-01 4.75% 4.75% 4.75% -- 02/01/2011 10:30 TH Consumer Price Index (YoY) JAN 3.00% 3.03% 3.00% -- 02/01/2011 10:30 TH Consumer Price Index NSA (MoM) JAN 0.50% 0.54% 0.20% -- 02/01/2011 10:30 TH Core CPI (YoY) JAN 1.40% 1.32% 1.40% -- 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Total Trade Balance DEC $2098M $3694M $2267M $2626M 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Inflation (YoY) JAN 6.81% 7.02% 6.96% -- 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Exports (YoY) DEC 16.60% 25.70% 42.30% 45.10% 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Core Inflation (YoY) JAN 4.30% 4.18% 4.28% -- 02/01/2011 11:00 ID Total Imports (YoY) DEC 29.00% 27.10% 48.30% 47.60% 02/01/2011 12:30 AU RBA Commodity Price Index Au JAN -- 100 94.6 95.3 02/01/2011 12:30 AU RBA Commodity Index SDR YoY% JAN -- 48.70% 47.70% 48.80% 02/01/2011 12:30 IN Exports YoY% DEC -- 36.40% 26.50% -- 02/01/2011 12:30 IN Imports YoY% DEC -- -11.10% 11.20% -- 02/01/2011 14:00 UK Natwide House prices sa (MoM) JAN -0.40% -0.10% 0.40% -- 02/01/2011 14:00 UK Natwide House prices nsa(YoY) JAN -1.00% -1.10% 0.40% -- 02/01/2011 14:45 FR Producer Prices (MoM) DEC 0.60% 1.00% 0.40% -- 02/01/2011 14:45 FR Producer Prices (YoY) DEC 5.00% 5.40% 4.50% -- 02/01/2011 15:45 IT PMI Manufacturing JAN 54.8 56.6 54.7 -- 02/01/2011 15:50 FR PMI Manufacturing JAN F 54.3 54.9 54.3 -- 02/01/2011 15:55 GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) JAN 7.50% 7.40% 7.50% -- 02/01/2011 15:55 GE PMI Manufacturing JAN F 60.2 60.5 60.2 -- 02/01/2011 16:00 IT Unemployment Rate (SA) DEC P 8.70% 8.60% 8.70% 8.60% 02/01/2011 16:00 EC PMI Manufacturing JAN F 56.9 57.3 56.9 -- 02/01/2011 16:30 UK PMI Manufacturing JAN 58 62 58.3 58.7 02/01/2011 17:00 EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate DEC 10.10% 10.00% 10.10% 10.00% 02/01/2011 20:30 SI Purchasing Managers Index JAN 50.3 50.5 50.7 -- 02/01/2011 22:00 US Construction Spending MoM DEC 0.10% -2.50% 0.40% -0.20% 02/01/2011 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing JAN 58 60.8 57 58.5 02/01/2011 22:00 US ISM Prices Paid JAN 73.5 81.5 72.5 -- Source: Bloomberg 6 For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.

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