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Points of No Return
      Mike Shatzkin
  Making Information Pay
       May 6, 2010
My view: coming change
         dwarfs recent change
• Ebooks headed for 25% share of new narrative
  books soon (end of 2...
Inside the publishing houses

• Ebook first development will occur, then grow,
  then become dominant
• Brick-and-mortar w...
How are people reacting to change?
       Pretty optimistically…
• Most feel fundamental change has happened
  (31%) or is...
Some clouds in the blue sky

• Nearly half (48%) think their companies need
  to provide “more education”
• Profound chang...
Fun with “buzzwords”

• Big majority (62%) say Twitter is a “fad, soon
  to pass”(!)
• More than a third (38%) say that ab...
Today’s program: before the break
    Experts deliver data and insight
• Kelly Gallagher of Bowker: what consumers are
  s...
Today’s program: after the break
       Publishers in the trenches
• John Konczal of Sterling Commerce (sponsor):
  tools ...
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Transcript of "2of13 makinginformationpay2010mikeshatzkinidealogicalcompany-100507104736-phpapp02"

  1. 1. Points of No Return Mike Shatzkin Making Information Pay May 6, 2010
  2. 2. My view: coming change dwarfs recent change • Ebooks headed for 25% share of new narrative books soon (end of 2012?) • Total online sales for those books will then exceed brick-and-mortar sales • Entirely new publishing models enabled (ebook first and POD) • Disintermediation becomes a real threat • Traditional business will have to shrink fast
  3. 3. Inside the publishing houses • Ebook first development will occur, then grow, then become dominant • Brick-and-mortar will shrink gradually, then suddenly: drastic implications for sales and operations • Ebook royalties of 25% become unsustainable • Single title marketing: for authors and mega- books only • Consolidation occurs in many forms
  4. 4. How are people reacting to change? Pretty optimistically… • Most feel fundamental change has happened (31%) or is happening now (45%) • Most feel their job skills will “match the industry’s future needs” (62% to 20% who don’t think so) • Half (52%) expect our business to become more profitable • Of those responding, half think we’ll have more jobs as a result of change, not fewer
  5. 5. Some clouds in the blue sky • Nearly half (48%) think their companies need to provide “more education” • Profound change in editorial will blindside many people (a comment: “editing is editing”); only 59% expect “fundamental change” in editorial • 20% do not think their skills will fit future industry needs
  6. 6. Fun with “buzzwords” • Big majority (62%) say Twitter is a “fad, soon to pass”(!) • More than a third (38%) say that about “free as a price point” • More than a quarter (28%) say that about “crowd sourcing” • Long term trends: digital marketing, web analytics, publishing in vertical niches (75+%)
  7. 7. Today’s program: before the break Experts deliver data and insight • Kelly Gallagher of Bowker: what consumers are saying about change • David Guenette of Gilbane: the 7 essential systems for publishers • Jabin White of Wolters Kluwer: how change affects the people who are part of it • George Lossius of Publishing Technology: investment decisions in a time of rapid change • Steve Walker of SBS Worldwide (sponsor): supply chain cost savings
  8. 8. Today’s program: after the break Publishers in the trenches • John Konczal of Sterling Commerce (sponsor): tools to enable new business models • Bruce Shaw & Adam Salomone of Harvard Common Press: editors acquiring for a portfolio • Phil Madans of Hachette: workflow shift from “assembly line” to “collaboration” • Matt Baldacci of Macmillan: the shift in marketing spending and skills • Maureen McMahon of Kaplan: connecting, not closing and new hiring criteria for sales
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