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2of13 makinginformationpay2010mikeshatzkinidealogicalcompany-100507104736-phpapp02

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  • 1. Points of No Return Mike Shatzkin Making Information Pay May 6, 2010
  • 2. My view: coming change dwarfs recent change • Ebooks headed for 25% share of new narrative books soon (end of 2012?) • Total online sales for those books will then exceed brick-and-mortar sales • Entirely new publishing models enabled (ebook first and POD) • Disintermediation becomes a real threat • Traditional business will have to shrink fast
  • 3. Inside the publishing houses • Ebook first development will occur, then grow, then become dominant • Brick-and-mortar will shrink gradually, then suddenly: drastic implications for sales and operations • Ebook royalties of 25% become unsustainable • Single title marketing: for authors and mega- books only • Consolidation occurs in many forms
  • 4. How are people reacting to change? Pretty optimistically… • Most feel fundamental change has happened (31%) or is happening now (45%) • Most feel their job skills will “match the industry’s future needs” (62% to 20% who don’t think so) • Half (52%) expect our business to become more profitable • Of those responding, half think we’ll have more jobs as a result of change, not fewer
  • 5. Some clouds in the blue sky • Nearly half (48%) think their companies need to provide “more education” • Profound change in editorial will blindside many people (a comment: “editing is editing”); only 59% expect “fundamental change” in editorial • 20% do not think their skills will fit future industry needs
  • 6. Fun with “buzzwords” • Big majority (62%) say Twitter is a “fad, soon to pass”(!) • More than a third (38%) say that about “free as a price point” • More than a quarter (28%) say that about “crowd sourcing” • Long term trends: digital marketing, web analytics, publishing in vertical niches (75+%)
  • 7. Today’s program: before the break Experts deliver data and insight • Kelly Gallagher of Bowker: what consumers are saying about change • David Guenette of Gilbane: the 7 essential systems for publishers • Jabin White of Wolters Kluwer: how change affects the people who are part of it • George Lossius of Publishing Technology: investment decisions in a time of rapid change • Steve Walker of SBS Worldwide (sponsor): supply chain cost savings
  • 8. Today’s program: after the break Publishers in the trenches • John Konczal of Sterling Commerce (sponsor): tools to enable new business models • Bruce Shaw & Adam Salomone of Harvard Common Press: editors acquiring for a portfolio • Phil Madans of Hachette: workflow shift from “assembly line” to “collaboration” • Matt Baldacci of Macmillan: the shift in marketing spending and skills • Maureen McMahon of Kaplan: connecting, not closing and new hiring criteria for sales