Speech:
 10^7 bits
 Tribes
Writing:
 10^11 bits
 City cultures
Printing:
 10^17 bits
 Renaissance
 Industrial socie...
Gutenberg Encyclopedia
… but our brains are still in the
speech learning stage
The Future Starts Today
Working the Future
Jyrki J.J. Kasvi
Take us prophets with a pinch of salt
 ”There is no reason for any individual to have a computer
in their home.”
 Ken Ol...
24.9.2009 www.kasvi.org 6
E.g. ”Brain pacer”
Science fiction has also inspired developers
of ICT (True Names, Neuromancer,...
Euro debt crises come and go
True megatrends reshape our societies for good
 Climate change and environmental sustainabil...
Finnish dependency ratio collapses … right about now
27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 8
StatisticsFin...
Megatrends converge, e.g. robot baby seals were used
to comfort elderly Japanese who had lost everything in
the tsunami
(N...
www.tieke.fi
CenterforIntelligentRoboticsKIST,Korea.
Helsinkicityistestingcarerobotsfortheelderly
Sea levels are not starting to rise
27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 11
Globalwarmingart.
Running out of … everything
 With current usage we run out of (New Scientist)
 indium, terbium, hafnium and lead on this...
Ashley Felton: Public domain
A future mine
Verace Sustainability Report 2006
Why make pulp and paper in Finland in the future…
• from slowly growing expensive trees?...
The World in 2050’s
27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 15
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70....
Technology is our only change to prosper
Adaptation to ageing population, global competition and climate
change requires a...
27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 17
You drink milk milked by a robot.
Digitalisation is only just beginning
 The steam engine invented in the late 17th
century revolutinalised economies and
s...
”A harvester is just a PC in a special box.”
”It is hard to find ppl with programming skills to operate harvesters.”
CC 3....
E.g. traffic becomes service
 Robot cars come to market by
year 2020
 Volvo develops autonomous trucks
 Legislation and...
27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 21
Lockheed
Robots come to our living rooms
 Teller machines have replaced bank clerks
 Remember going to bank every other
day just ...
Does military/police iRobot PackBot pack
the same technologies as iRobot Roomba?
Robots are coming to our working places
 Productivity explosion corresponding to industrialisation
 Stupid industrial jo...
Aseta project
UniversityofNewSouthWales
If I were a farmer I would start
taking coding lessons right now
Media revolution
 Internet has already replaced television
 Finns spend as much time in Internet as watching TV
 Watche...
New competency requirements
 Life management skills
 Hot to fit work, family and life together
 Competency management s...
Information society citizen skills
 Basic ICT use skills
 Lacking in every age group
 Media reading and writing skills
...
Backslashes to be expected
 Early 19th century weaving machines were
1st generation industrial automation
 Industry, wor...
Please welcome our new computer overlords
27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 30
30.9.2010 www.kasvi.org 31
Sukupuolten välinen digikuilu?
Discussion
U.S. Army Photo
The Future Starts Today
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The Future Starts Today

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A lecture about the future of work, held on Kasavuori School on March 27th, 2014.

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The Future Starts Today

  1. 1. Speech:  10^7 bits  Tribes Writing:  10^11 bits  City cultures Printing:  10^17 bits  Renaissance  Industrial society Digital:  10^25 bits  ??? culture Donald Robertson: New Renaissance
  2. 2. Gutenberg Encyclopedia … but our brains are still in the speech learning stage
  3. 3. The Future Starts Today Working the Future Jyrki J.J. Kasvi
  4. 4. Take us prophets with a pinch of salt  ”There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.”  Ken Olson, President of DEC, World Future Society Convention, 1977  "You aren't going to turn passive consumers into active trollers on the Internet."  Stephen Weiswasser, senior VP, ABC television, 1989  “Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.”  Sir Alan Sugar, 2005  By 2015 one third of US fighting strength will be composed of robots  US Department of Defense, 2006  “By 2015–2020 every South Korean household will have a robot and many European, “  The Ministry of Information and Communication (South Korea), 2007  When it comes to information society, science fiction has hit the mark much better  But how about robotics?  Popular culture has formed our attitudes and perceptions on robots and robotic society
  5. 5. 24.9.2009 www.kasvi.org 6 E.g. ”Brain pacer” Science fiction has also inspired developers of ICT (True Names, Neuromancer, …)
  6. 6. Euro debt crises come and go True megatrends reshape our societies for good  Climate change and environmental sustainability – A growing part of economic growth is going to be used on emission control and adaptation to climate change  Global demographic change – The average Finnish age is about 40 years • Half of Finnish voters using their vote are pensioners - a retired nation – In developing countries the great generations are becoming adults • Every third Egyptian is under 15 years of age  Global networking and dependency – The rise of BRIC countires to economic, cultural and military superpowers  New technologies are reshaping our societies – ICT now penetrates the structures of our society
  7. 7. Finnish dependency ratio collapses … right about now 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 8 StatisticsFinland People under 15 and over 65 years of age per 100 working age people 0-14 yr olds Over 65 yr olds
  8. 8. Megatrends converge, e.g. robot baby seals were used to comfort elderly Japanese who had lost everything in the tsunami (NHK Video screenshot)
  9. 9. www.tieke.fi CenterforIntelligentRoboticsKIST,Korea. Helsinkicityistestingcarerobotsfortheelderly
  10. 10. Sea levels are not starting to rise 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 11 Globalwarmingart.
  11. 11. Running out of … everything  With current usage we run out of (New Scientist)  indium, terbium, hafnium and lead on this decade  silver, tin, antimony and uranium on next decade  Nickel, platinum, tantalum, zinc, chrome, copper and gold on this century  New technologies influence demand for raw materials  E.g. fuel cells require loads of platinum – Street dust is already “mined” for platinum falling off from car catalysers – 1,5 / 1.000.000 street dust particles can be platinum  Efficient solar cells would be on market if there were enough indium and gallium  China has 95% of know reserves of rare earths and controls also African mines – The civil war in Congo is a war to control local tantalum mines  Past economic growth has been based on expanding consumption of raw materials and energy  Future growth has to be based on increasing raw material productivity  China is already buying and storing electronic waste
  12. 12. Ashley Felton: Public domain A future mine
  13. 13. Verace Sustainability Report 2006 Why make pulp and paper in Finland in the future… • from slowly growing expensive trees? • far away from still growing paper markets? • with Finnish labour costs? Finland was one of the winners of globalization
  14. 14. The World in 2050’s 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 15 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 China USA India Brazil Russia GDPbillionUS$ GoldmanSachs,ECSResearch Of course economy does not develop linearly like this, but if it would: • Asia returns back to the centre of the World • Europe probably misses its chance to stay a world power and becomes a tourist attraction to Asians, Brazilians and Indians.
  15. 15. Technology is our only change to prosper Adaptation to ageing population, global competition and climate change requires a productivity leap! Pioneers will reap the profits!  Digitalisation penetrates everything from exercise to housing  Internet shopping, augmented reality, smart buildings, biosensors, …  Robotisation brings robots from factory floors to living rooms  E.g. transportation and agriculture are going to become automated in 2020’s  Artificial intelligences automate mental jobs  Stock market, journalism, social services, …  IBM Watson has been opened for public use  3d-printing revolutionalises manufacturing  Manufacturing, logistics and shopping change  The role of design increases 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 16
  16. 16. 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 17 You drink milk milked by a robot.
  17. 17. Digitalisation is only just beginning  The steam engine invented in the late 17th century revolutinalised economies and societies in the early 19th century  Education, labour market, politics, economy, family, …  E.g. schools are still following an industrial paradigm  E.g. our immaterial property rights system with patents and copyrights  Digital technology invented on the 1940’s is now reshaping our societies and economies just as quickly and profoundly  What is the home, school, work place, labour union, … of 2030’s like?  A child going to first grade is still working on 2080’s!  And (s)he is not taught to use computers even in high schools 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 18
  18. 18. ”A harvester is just a PC in a special box.” ”It is hard to find ppl with programming skills to operate harvesters.” CC 3.0 SA BY Heikki Valve Digitalisation penetrates work
  19. 19. E.g. traffic becomes service  Robot cars come to market by year 2020  Volvo develops autonomous trucks  Legislation and attitudes bigger challenges than technology  Car utilisation multiplies  Only a third of the current number of cars is going to be needed  Jobs in car manufacturing and selling diminish  New jobs in vehicle AI development and ”mobility operator” business  Road investments are made for decades  Forecasts are based on the assumption that people own and drive their cars  New jobs needed for drivers and road builders  The logistic chain of Internet shopping reaches your home door  New jobs required for salespeople  New jobs creaded in logistics 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 20
  20. 20. 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 21 Lockheed
  21. 21. Robots come to our living rooms  Teller machines have replaced bank clerks  Remember going to bank every other day just to get some cash?  But are teller machines robots or just clever automatons?  Vacuum cleaners and lawn movers haven been replaced by simple single task robots  Well defined limited tasks are the first to be taken over by AI’s  “Intelligent” washing machines analyze your laundry and autonomously decide how to wash it  Intelligent appliances make smart homes  Robot police are coming to our streets  But aren’t iRobot 510 PackBots just remote controlled machines? 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 22
  22. 22. Does military/police iRobot PackBot pack the same technologies as iRobot Roomba?
  23. 23. Robots are coming to our working places  Productivity explosion corresponding to industrialisation  Stupid industrial jobs are going the way of stupid agricultural jobs  In 20 years a third of current jobs will be replaced by AI’s and robots  … and agricultural robots are remaking agriculture too  Totally new industries not viable with human labor  E.g. automatic waste sorting  Appliances and machinery become autonomous and networked  Your car tells your house that you are coming home: Warm the sauna.  Your Polar stress sensor informs the fridge: Cool another beer. 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 24 ZenRobotics Recycler is a true robot reacting to its environment instead of repeating preordained moves.
  24. 24. Aseta project UniversityofNewSouthWales If I were a farmer I would start taking coding lessons right now
  25. 25. Media revolution  Internet has already replaced television  Finns spend as much time in Internet as watching TV  Watcher controlled ipTV replaces broadcast TV  E-readers replace newspapers and books  Bookstores are facing the fate of record stores  Games have been a bigger industry than movies for 10 years  Finnish game development industry needs 600 new employees every year.  Mail delivery is dvindling  Paper bills and newspapers are disappearing  Delivery of Internet shopping
  26. 26. New competency requirements  Life management skills  Hot to fit work, family and life together  Competency management skills  Life long updating of competencies  Knowledge management skills  Information fatigue is a major occupational hazard in information society  What about ICT competencies?  ICT competencies should be self evident citizen skills  Even young people have trouble using computers for something else than social media and gaming Basic- Program ming
  27. 27. Information society citizen skills  Basic ICT use skills  Lacking in every age group  Media reading and writing skills  Everybody can be a mass media  Journalistic principles and amateur media  Data security skills  You cannot trust even respected data security companies any more  Digital social capital  How to be civil in social media  How and where do we learn these skills?  Finland is one of the only countries in Europe where ICT is not compulsory at school 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 28 CC2.0SharealikeAttributionDeryckHodge
  28. 28. Backslashes to be expected  Early 19th century weaving machines were 1st generation industrial automation  Industry, working life and society changed faster than people and world economy were able to adapt  Resulting in violent luddite revolts  Death penalty for destruction of a machine in the U.K.  In the economic race of companies and nations no-one can afford to take a breather and think  Forerunner corporations and nations enjoy both the benefits and the risks  How do we direct a share of the productivity increase created with robots and AI’s into retraining, social benefits etc. that would soften the impact on people’s lives?  … without hindering utilization of the possibilities of new technologies 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 29
  29. 29. Please welcome our new computer overlords 27.3.2014 TIEKE Tietoyhteiskunnan kehittämiskeskus ry 30
  30. 30. 30.9.2010 www.kasvi.org 31 Sukupuolten välinen digikuilu? Discussion U.S. Army Photo

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