Rape in India - A study by Juxt in public interest

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A study to bring forward the real situation of rapes in India. We at Juxt decided to understand public perception and actual reported crime data better. …

A study to bring forward the real situation of rapes in India. We at Juxt decided to understand public perception and actual reported crime data better.


Reason: We believed that there is lot more which needs to be told to the people of this country…

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  • 1. Rape in India A study to bring forward the real situation in India An initiative of in public interest.
  • 2. 16th Dec. incidence led to spontaneous public outrage • More than few 1000 Hours of airtime was spent on TV discussing the issue • More than 1000s of column centimeters of newspaper space was dedicated to this • Hundreds of thousands of people spoke on social media about the issue • Opinion leaders including journalists, politicians, celebrities, religio us leaders spoke about it • The general public took to the streets to express their outrage • Everyone had their reasons to contribute their bit to it Tag cloud created out of actual words used in social media between 16th Dec to 31st Dec 12, Source: Drizzlin Social Media Research 2
  • 3. We at Juxt decided to understand public perception and actual reported crime data better. Reason: We believed that there is lot more which needs to be told to the people of this country…
  • 4. We launched a study… • 25th December 2012 to 5th January 2013 among a random sample (from our GetCounted Panel; and YouMint & Dinamalar graciously helped) • Made this sample representative of the “Urban Indian Population” by applying appropriate multipliers derived by comparing our sample with that of Indian Census 2011 estimates of Urban Indian population within every state • Juxt’s survey among 5934 urban Indians demographically represents 257.2 million urban individuals (68% representation) out of the total 377 million urban population 4
  • 5. We also analyzed Govt. of India Crime data • National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB) has been compiling reported crime in the country since 1950 • This data available in the public domain may not include all crimes or for that matter crimes against women and more specifically all “Rape” cases in the country reported at police stations, however it is good enough to understand public perception against reality • In fact we found some startling findings from this data when we analyzed statistics related to rape between 2001 and 2011 5
  • 6. Key findings from the study
  • 7. NCRB data shows that rape has grown one and a half times over last one decade… • In 2001 rape was 7% of all violent crimes in India, in 2011 it is 9% • While violent crime has grown 11% from 2001, rape has grown 51% (Indian population has grown by 16% during the period) 16075 16373 15847 18233 18359 19348 20737 21467 21397 22172 24206 230930 221810 196550 208736 202640 205656 215613 228663 230500 241986 256329 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Rape in India All Violent Crime in India Source: NCRB, Violent Crimes, Incidence & Rate of violent Crimes (State/ UT & City wise) # RAPE (6), # TOTAL VIOLENT CRIMES (14) 7
  • 8. Situation in some states is alarming 8 • In MP, reported rape incidents have grown by 10% on an average every year (2001-11 ) • The fastest growth of reported rape incidences (states reporting more than 30 cases in 2011) are reported from Tripura, Mizoram and Madhya Pradesh • For every 1 lakh people Mizoram reported 7.1 rape cases, Tripura (5.6), Assam (5.5), MP (4.7), Meghalaya (4.4), Chhattisgarh (4.1) in year 2011 • Gujarat, Manipur and TN had lowest growth in rapes in that period • Gujarat, Bihar have the lowest rates (less than 1 per 1 lakh population) Source: NCRB, Violent Crimes, Incidence & Rate of violent Crimes (State/ UT & City wise) # RAPE (6), 2011 Census
  • 9. Rapes have grown faster in cities • Bangalore, Chennai, Surat and Jaipur have seen rapes more than double between 2001 and 2011 • Delhi’s rate (4.1 rape incidents per 1 lakh population) is more than double that of any of the other seven large cities • Kollam (Kerala) has the highest reported rape incidence (14 rape incidents per 1 lakh population) 9 Source: NCRB, Violent Crimes, Incidence & Rate of violent Crimes (State/ UT & City wise) # RAPE (6), 2011 Census
  • 10. Unfortunately minors form 1/3rd of all rape victims in this country… • Though at overall level minors as a percentage of victims looks like going down over 10 years yet in as many as 10 states/UTs, minors constituted more than half of the total rape victims in 2011 • Both in Delhi (60%) and Mumbai (50%), majority of reported rape victims were minors 3% 3% 9% 7% 24% 19% 49% 55% 14% 15% 0.4% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2001 2011 Above 50 years 30 to 50 years 18 to 30 years 14 to 18 years 10 to 14 years Up to 10 years 10 Source: NCRB, Crime Against Women, Victims of Rape (also incest Rape cases) under Different Age-Groups (State, UT & City-wise) # Age-Group-Wise Victims of Rape Cases
  • 11. There are 15 states where 30%+ of the victims reported rape in 2011 were minors 11 • Mizoram, Delhi, UP, Meghalay a and Maharashtra are states where in 2011 almost half or more victims were minors • It is sad to find that in five states at least 10% or more victims are less than 10 years oldSource: NCRB, Crime Against Women, Victims of Rape (also incest Rape cases) under Different Age-Groups (State, UT & City-wise) # Age-Group-Wise Victims of Rape Cases
  • 12. In Raipur 100% of the reported rape victims in 2011 were minors 12 • There are at least 25 big towns where in 2011 more than 48% of victims were minors (less than 18 years old) • There are 5 towns where in 1/5th or more cases reported victims were less than 10 years old • In Kannnur and Chandigarh, 1/4th of the reported rape victims are less than 10 years old Source: NCRB, Crime Against Women, Victims of Rape (also incest Rape cases) under Different Age-Groups (State, UT & City-wise) # Age-Group-Wise Victims of Rape Cases
  • 13. 42% urban Indians believe that law & order situation has deteriorated 13 Projected Base (in Cr.) 25.7 16.5 9.3 4.3 3.8 7.9 6.0 2.3 1.4 19.3 17.4 22.7 0.0 16.2 22.7 30.8 13.3 28.9 23.0 29.3 11.9 55.6 16.8 12.2 22.2 20.5 8.0 23.1 28.5 13.6 17.2 32.4 16.8 19.4 29.9 56.4 12.4 10.0 16.7 0.8 11.9 23.6 6.9 17.2 2.2 22.2 14.9 35.1 26.4 22.7 24.7 20.7 19.2 4.6 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% All Male Female Up to 18 yrs 19-24 yrs 25-35 yrs 36-45 yrs 46-55 yrs Above 55 yrs Don't know Improved (become better) Remained good Remained bad Deteriorated (gone worse) Juxt Survey: Q. The law & order situation in your locality over last one year has: • In our survey of 5934 people equivalent of 25Cr urban Indians, 23% of females feel that the law and order situation has deteriorated • Most of the 36 to 45 yrs. (52%) old believe it has deteriorated
  • 14. People blame rape on light punishment • Our survey respondents blamed “light punishment” as the biggest reason • In North & South, respondents said societal attitude is the second biggest reason; in East & West, crimes not being reported, is identified as a big reason 14 53.7 50.0 60.5 54.7 46.4 40.0 19.9 20.6 18.6 19.2 25.5 29.8 15.7 18.4 10.9 15.8 15.2 13.1 8.3 8.8 7.6 8.0 10.5 15.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% All Male Female Up to Graduate Grad/PG (General) Grad/PG (Professional) Others Because of lack of conviction in such cases Because most rapes don't get reported It is a reflection of the attitude towards women Because of light punishment Projected Base (in Cr.) 25.7 16.5 9.3 23.1 2.2 0.5 Juxt Survey Q. What according to you is the biggest reason?
  • 15. They think stricter punishment is the solution • There is a gender divide when it comes to other solutions. Women believe respect for women at home will help; men think better conviction rate is the solution • Young seek a legal solution; older (46+) think fundamental changes are needed 15 81.6 82.8 79.5 81.0 87.5 87.2 42.1 40.6 45.0 41.4 47.7 51.3 39.0 32.5 50.6 38.8 39.7 43.0 33.8 35.4 31.1 34.3 29.9 31.029.3 31.8 24.7 28.4 35.1 45.6 14.5 15.5 12.7 14.2 17.1 15.0 13.4 11.1 17.4 13.0 17.1 14.4 2.3 3.3 0.4 2.4 1.1 3.1 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 All Male Female Up to Graduate Grad/PG (General) Grad/PG (Professional) Stricter punishment for criminals Right education Respect to women at home Educate & empower women Better rate of conviction of accused Political power for women Financial independence for women Others Projected Base (in Cr.) 25.7 16.5 9.3 23.1 2.2 0.5 Juxt Survey: Q. What do you think is the solution?
  • 16. However, proportion of offenders known to victims is been going up! • In more than 90% of cases, the offenders were known to the victims • In 40% of the cases, they were family members or neighbours • Absolute number of neighbours as offenders has gone up by 81% over 2001 16 16% 7% 84% 93% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2001 2011 Offender known to victim Offenders unknown to victim 49.1% 53.2% 26.9% 32.4% 5.3% 6.4% 2.7% 1.1% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 2001 2011 Parents/Clos e Family Members Relatives Neightbour Other known person Source: NCRB, Crime Against Women, Offenders Relation & Nearness to Rape Victims (State, UT & City-wise)
  • 17. Key Question: If of the reported cases, 93% offenders are known to victims then how many cases in this country goes unreported? 17
  • 18. People think right punishment is ‘death penalty’ or ‘castration’ 18 47 42 55 48 56 50 46 27 33 34 34 34 40 26 30 28 52 50 15 19 9 12 15 14 21 16 9 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 4 4 2 0 2 5 4 4 7 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Total Male Female Upto18yrs 19-24yrs 25-35yrs 36-45yrs 46-55yrs Above55yrs Others Current punishment is ok Life imprisonment Castration/any other such punishment that humiliates them Capital punishment (death) Juxt survey: Q. What do you think is the right punishment for the rapists? • Cutting across all groups, majority of the respondents ask for stricter punishment. • As many as 55% of females seek death penalty for the rapists, with little variation across any group Projected Base (in Cr.) 25.7 16.5 9.3 4.3 3.8 7.9 6.0 2.3 1.4
  • 19. In fact, for last 10 years about 74% of the reported rape offenders never got convicted in India… @#$% • Only riots have a lowest conviction rate among violent crimes • Speed of trial is the other big issue. 84% of the rape cases that the courts received (including those pending from previous years) were pending at the end of 2011 19 93.1 94.7 94 94.2 95.5 NA 94.6 93.9 94.2 94.5 93.8 26.1 26.4 26.1 25.2 25.5 NA 26.4 26.6 26.9 26.6 26.4 0 20 40 60 80 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Rape case charge sheet filing rate Rape case final conviction rate Source: NCRB, Disposal of Cases by Police & courts, Chargesheeting rate of IPC Crimes (State/UT wise, Crime Head-wise), Conviction rate of IPC crimes (State & UT wise, Crime Head wise), Data for year 2006 is not available
  • 20. Key Question: Isn’t it more important to bring the offenders to book first rather than get the punishment rule changed? 20
  • 21. We have a bigger problem -- "every one out of five violent crimes committed by juveniles is a rape" • Rape is the second biggest violent crime committed by juveniles (grown 188% over 2001) • About 64% of all juvenile crimes are committed by 16-18 year olds • In fact, the total crimes committed by 7-16 year olds have actually come down between 2001-2011 21 Source: NCRB, Juvenile Delinquency, Juvenile Delinquency under different Crime Heads (IPC) (State, UT & City wise); Juveniles Apprehended under IPC Crimes by Age Groups & Sex (State, UT & City wise) 399 485 466 568 586 746 776 798 858 1149 16075 16373 15847 18233 18359 19348 20737 21467 21397 22172 24206 23597 25016 24709 24740 25379 26899 29771 30962 28977 27471 30766 230930 221810 196550 208736 202640 205656 215613 228663 230500 241986 256329 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 LogarithimicScale Rape offender is a Juvenile Total rape cases Total Juvenile apprehended Total Violent Offence Growth over 2001 - 188% - 51% - 30% - 11%
  • 22. Key Question: Is the crime by juveniles are really growing or it is the lawyers who use it as an easy route? 22
  • 23. Thankfully, one third of us have hope for positive changes… 23Juxt Survey Q. Do you think after all the protests, the govt. will_____? • The older they are the more expectation they have from the recent protest • Relatively more females believe that the protest will lead Govt. to surely do something substantial to tackle the issue Projected Base (in Cr.) 25.7 16.5 9.3 4.3 3.8 7.9 6.0 2.3 1.4 36.1 31.8 43.8 27.1 46.8 38.6 32.3 45.6 22.3 29.7 35.2 20.0 53.7 24.0 27.8 24.3 15.6 27.8 12.3 15.1 7.4 18.4 11.6 9.7 15.4 3.3 11.4 21.9 18.0 28.8 0.8 17.6 24.0 28.0 35.5 38.5 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% All Male Female Upto18 yrs 19-24yrs 25-35yrs 36-45yrs 46-55yrs Above55 yrs Surely do something substantial to tackle the issue Will manage to improve the situation to some extent Will take some steps on paper but that will not result in much Will act on this case but will not do any major systemic change
  • 24. Looks like we have a much bigger problems to deal with… than just asking to change some punishment rules. Thank you. 24 Analytics partner Social media partner Survey sampling partner