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Talk delivered at CIR Series http://www.hvm-uk.com/events/register/

Talk delivered at CIR Series http://www.hvm-uk.com/events/register/

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  • 1. Smart  Grids  +  Clean  Power  2014     The Energy Trilemma Guiding future Investments for Infrastructure and sustainability needs     Peter  Sharra8           4th  June   www.hvm-­‐uk.com        
  • 2. Themes:     Re-­‐thinking  growth     Value  at  stake       The energy trilemma
  • 3. Re-thinking growth: Understanding  the  global  challenge   3 Rising  populaHon  +  Global  Security Resource  +  Environmental  Constraints     Aging  Infrastructure  +  Carbon   UrbanisaHon  and  Equity  
  • 4. Re-thinking growth:  EsHmated  global  infrastructure  spend    
  • 5. 1.7bn   2.5bn   6.5bn   9bn   10%   30%   50%   75%   1900 1950 2005   2050   Re-thinking growth: Rates  of  Global  UrbanisaHon   2009   1.8  billion   2020   3.2  billion   2030   4.9  billion   1.5  billion  (about  1/5th  of  the  world’s  populaHon)     Generate  $30  trillion   Over  50%  of  global  GDP   2  billion  (1/4  world’s  populaHon)   $64  trillion   Will  Generate  60%  global  GDP   Today   In  15  years  Hme   Growth  of  the  middle  class   Source:  Mckinsey  Global  InsHtute     Source:  OECD  Development  Centre    
  • 6. Current Urban Footprint: 400sq km Growth of Dubai in 2007 : a City of 1.8 million
  • 7. Committed Urban Footprint: 950sq km Growth of Dubai as envisaged in Strategic Plan : a City of 2.6m
  • 8. Planned Urban Footprint: 1300sq km Growth of Dubai pre-crash : a City of 10m
  • 9. Are  our  systems  fit  for  purpose  ?   3%  useful  output   50%   Re-thinking growth:  systems  efficiency  
  • 10. What type of growth :  CNI  efficiency     SOURCE   GENERATION   TRANSMISSION   DEMAND   EFFICIENCY  Dubai,  2008  
  • 11. INTEGRATED PLANNING AND BUILDING POLICY AND REGULATION Re-thinking Growth Designing  Policy  and  RegulaHon  that  delivers  sustainable  outcomes  
  • 12. 1 2   During  Summer  60-­‐70%   total   Electricity  use  is  for   Buildings   Electricity demand is Growing 6% pa (twice average global rate) GDP Growth 6% pa In 2007 Saudi burned $113m worth of oil to meet 50% of its total domestic demand Saudi’s Oil production accounts for: 75% national revenues 45% GDP 90% export earnings Electricity Generation Accounts for 75% of total Annual oil consumption Aramco predict that in 20years 50% of national oil production will be consumed internally 50% Saudi’s water is From Co-generation Over $90bn investment Required to meet demand from conventional sources 75%  Saudi’s  future     Electricity  Demand     will  come  from  it’s   ciHes     82%  Saudi’s  populaHon   Live  in  ciHes  and  this  is   Growing  2.5%  pa   Re-thinking growth: Saudi  Arabia  Understanding  the  Case  for  AcHon               The  Kingdom  of  Saudi     Arabia  is  the  fastest   growing  consumer  of   electricity  in  the  Middle   East  and  a  growing   proporHon  of  it’s  oil   producHon  is  being   consumed  to  power   domesHc  growth  with  the   potenHal  loss  of  export   revenues.     KSA’s 9th Development Plan (2009-2014) targets Energy Diversification and Improved Living Standards
  • 13. -­‐ 50   100   150   200   250   300   350   400   2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Billions Total  Opportunity  Cost  of  Domestic  Oil  Use  (nominal  $) Revenue  Generated  if  sold  domestically Revenue  Lost  by  Domestic  Consumption 2019: Potential Value Lost - $1.4 trillion 2024: Potential Value Lost - $2.5 trillion 2029: Potential Value Lost - $4 trillion 2014: Potential Value Lost - $700 billion GDP  per  unit  of  Energy  Use     PPP$/kg  oil  equivalent  (purchasing  power  parity)   KSA Re-thinking growth: Making  a  case  for  acHon  on  the  Trilemma   ‘Value  at  stake’  and  ‘potenMal  value  retained’   $  per  annum  opportunity  cost  of  oil   KSA Lost Revenue Investment Jobs Smart Urban Growth Market Reform Competit- iveness
  • 14. The 10th Five Year Plan: Making the Case for a National Renewables, Energy Efficiency and Integrated Sustainable Development Programme for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Re-thinking growth:  
  • 15. Re-inventing growth: Case  Study  MASDAR  city   ……. Masdar  City  caught  the  a8enHon  of  the  world  –     how  to  deliver  on  its  potenHal  ?  
  • 16. Enterprise Risk + Value Helping  organisaHon  map  latent  value  that  isn’t  accounted  for   And  be8er  manage  risks  …….. ……….creaHng  the  right  dash-­‐boards  and  facilitaHng  understanding     and  building  consensus  for  acHon  are  key  areas  of  opportunity  .
  • 17. Balancing  Complexity:  T+D  and  Land-­‐use     Beauly  Denny  Overhead  Power  Line  -­‐  SHETL       Treasure  Island,  San  Francisco    
  • 18. Public  Services     (Social  Value)  Act  2012   “An  act  to  require  public  authoriHes  to   have  regard  to  economic,  social  and   environmental  well-­‐being  in   connecHon  with  public  services   contracts;  and  for  connected   purposes.”     )( ))_(( / 1/ investmentNPV cashflowsrstakeholdeNPV SROI nhs hs ∑ = = = Social  Return  on  Investment   Emerging  theme   Imagining a  world  where   Business  is  celebrated  for  it’s     contribuHon     To  society  ……..  
  • 19. Every  £1  spent  creates  £2.09   in  social  value  in  the  London   Borough  of  Southwark   Every  £1  spent  with  Veolia   creates  £1.92  in  social  value   in  the  LBS.     Imagining  a  world  where   Business  is  celebrated  for  it’s     contribuHon     To  society  ……..   Services   Outputs   Outcomes   Financial   Value   Social     Value   +   Urban  MRF   Infrastructure     AccounHng  for  the  social  value  of  infrastructure    
  • 20. Value at stake UK  Energy  &  CO2  Performance   Carbon  Intensity  Forecast   Source   h8p://www.hm-­‐treasury.gov.uk/d/consult_carbon_price_support_ia.pdf         Redpoint  Energy,  2010     Energy  Price  Forecasts   Source   h7p://www.hm-­‐treasury.gov.uk/d/consult_carbon_price_support_ia.pdf         Redpoint  Energy,  2010    
  • 21. Value at stake:  Energy  and  Carbon  Management  Global  Bank   Improving  energy  and  carbon  performance  of  ITC  and  Data  Management       £365m  Electricity       2013     2.2mtCO2  £5bn  Electricity       2024   +   10  year  projected  spend  on  electricity  without  growth  in  demand       ‘  ICT  could  cut  global  BAU   emissions  by   15%  and  save  €600bn  …  across   transport,  buildings,  power  and   industry  sectors  by  2020  ‘           Source:  SMART  2020  :  Enabling  the  Low  Carbon   Economy  in  the  InformaHon  Age    
  • 22. TMT  giants  taking  the  iniHaHve   US’  largest  privately   owned  onsite  solar  array   Powering  it  data  centre  in   Maiden,  North  Carolina,   Two  20‑MW  solar  arrays.     Altoona  data  centre     100%  fuelled  from   wind  energy  project   in  nearby  Wellsburg,   Iowa     Research  on  Hybrid   Renewable  Energy   ForecasHng  (HyRef)   technology  Improve   forecasts  of  wincondiHons     Addressing  the  challenge     of  intermi8ent  green     energy  sources.    
  • 23. Partnerships for the Solutions Economy Helping  organisaHons  understand  and  design  new   Partnerships  to  deliver  wider  value      ……..   ……….creaHng  the  right  engagement  frameworks   supporHng  the  case  for  acHon.   Helping  a  global  TMT  business,  partner   with  ciHes  to  meet  their  public  service   commitments  in  a  more  cost  effecHve   way  by  using  technology  plaworms  to   drive  efficiencies. •  Annual  City  budget  of  €730m   •  €150m  /  year  budget  devoted  to  services   that  could  be  transformed  to  Smart   •  savings  €11m  per  year  delivery  cost  saving    
  • 24. Key  Contact •      •  Peter  Sharra8   •  Director   •  Sustainable  Business  Partnership   •  www.sbpltd.uk.com   •  +44  77  1398  5833  m     •  peter.sharra8@sbpltd.uk.com     •     

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