IAEA/INPRO Consultants’ Meeting on Socio- and Macroeconomic Issues            in National Nuclear Energy Decision Making  ...
Outline1. Overall status of Vienam’s nuclear programme2. Main challenges3. Factors considered when contemplating on the   ...
1. Overall status of nuclear power      programme in Vienam                                     3
1.1. Growth Rate, Capacity, and Generation                       2001 - 2010• Average Commercial Electricity Growth Rate• ...
1.2. Structure of Electricity Generating Mix in 2010                       Import   Diesel                        4.7%    ...
1.3. Projection on Electricity Demand               2009     2010         2015         2020      2025      2030           ...
1.4. Installed Capacity Structure (2010 – 2030)                    Base Scenario (MW)               2010      2015      20...
1.5. Overall status of nuclear power programme                     in Vienam (1/2)• November, 2009 Vietnams National Assem...
1.5. Overall status of nuclear power programme                      in Vienam (2/2)According the Master Plan:• Ninh Thuan ...
Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPP SitesNinh Thuan 1 & 2 NPPs is locatedat Ninh Thuan Province • Ninh Thuan NPP 1  Site: Phuoc Dinh Comm...
Ky Xuan                                                (Ha Tinh)         Potential NPP Sites: 8                           ...
Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPP Projects• Russia and Japan have been chosen as partners of the Ninh Thuan 1  and Ninh Thuan 2 NPP Pro...
2. Main challenges                     13
2. Main Challenges (1/2)     As a newcomer-country embarking to NP, Vietnam is facing     many challenges1.    Infrastruct...
2. Main Challenges (2/2)5. Assuring safety, security, and non – proliferation requires to   become parties of some interna...
3. Factors considered whencontemplating on the nuclear power              option                                     16
3. Factors considered (1/3)   Pre-FS Report on the Construction of NPPs in Vietnam submitted  to the Government and approv...
3. Factors considered (2/3)   Chapter 3. NPP Sites: Survey and site selection results, including    economic, natural and...
3. Factors considered (3/3)   Chapter 8. Nuclear Safety: Introducing technical and technological    solutions to ensure N...
4. Main benefits and drawbacks of         nuclear power                                    20
4.1. Main benefits (or Necessity) of Nuclear Power              Development in Vietnam (1/5)Backgroud Vietnam’s energy po...
4.1. Main benefits… (2/5) On 17 August 2004, the Government of Viet Nam decided to issue The  Strategic Orientation for S...
4.1. Main benefits… (3/5) The objective of the sustainable development in social terms is to obtain  high results in the ...
4.1. Main benefits… (4/5)   Therefore, NP development is an optimal solution. The benefits (or   necessity) of NP are cons...
4.1. Main benefits… (5/5)   Especially, material and spirit life of local people in the NPP areas will be   improved due t...
4.2. Main drawbacks of nuclear power   Problems on radioactive waste and spent fuels treatment,    management, and storag...
5. Role of the public andPublic relation activities                             27
5. Role of the public and                Public relation activities (1/2)• Public, including many scientists, managers, so...
5. Role of the public and                Public relation activities (2/2)• Government is launching a Project on Public Com...
Thank you for your attention                               30
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Kế hoạch phát triển điện hạt nhân Việt Nam (nuclear power development plan)

985 views

Published on

LE, Doan Phac
Deputy Director General
Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency (VAEA)
Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST)
Email: ldphac@most.gov.vn

IAEA/INPRO Consultants’ Meeting on Socio- and Macroeconomic Issues in National Nuclear Energy Decision Making Vienna, 19-21 March 2012

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
985
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
22
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Kế hoạch phát triển điện hạt nhân Việt Nam (nuclear power development plan)

  1. 1. IAEA/INPRO Consultants’ Meeting on Socio- and Macroeconomic Issues in National Nuclear Energy Decision Making Vienna, 19-21 March 2012 __________________________________________________________Vietnam’s Way to Nuclear Energy LE, Doan Phac Deputy Director General Vietnam Atomic Energy Agency (VAEA) Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) 1
  2. 2. Outline1. Overall status of Vienam’s nuclear programme2. Main challenges3. Factors considered when contemplating on the nuclear power option4. Main benefits and drawbacks of nuclear power5. Role of the public and public relation activities 2
  3. 3. 1. Overall status of nuclear power programme in Vienam 3
  4. 4. 1.1. Growth Rate, Capacity, and Generation 2001 - 2010• Average Commercial Electricity Growth Rate• Period 2001-2010 14.5%/year• Period 2006-2010 13.7%/year• Average Electricity Generation Growth Rate• Period 2006-2010 13.3%/year In 2010• Installed Capacity & Import 21,297 MW• Available Capacity 19,713 MW• Pmax 15,416 MW• Electricity Generation 100.07 TWh• Commercial Electricity 87.7 TWh 4
  5. 5. 1.2. Structure of Electricity Generating Mix in 2010 Import Diesel 4.7% 2.5% Hydro Gas Turbine 38.0% 31.4% Oil-fired 2.7% Gas-fired Coal-fired 2.2% 18.5% 5
  6. 6. 1.3. Projection on Electricity Demand 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 High ScenarioCom. Elect. 70,046 86,756 184,284 318,511 494,126 739,928 (GWh)Elect. Gen. 87,109 100,007 210,852 361,945 561,506 833,817 (GWh) Capacity 13,867 16,048 33,426 57,180 88,401 132,201 (MW) Base ScenarioCom. Elect. 70,046 86,756 169,821 289,882 430,867 615,205 (GWh)Elect. Gen. 87,109 100,007 194,304 329,412 489,621 695,147 (GWh) Capacity 13,867 16,048 30,803 52,040 77,048 110,215 (MW) 6
  7. 7. 1.4. Installed Capacity Structure (2010 – 2030) Base Scenario (MW) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Hydro & 7,416 14,006 17,701 20,401 22,501 Pump (34,8%) (32,6%) (26,4%) (21,1%) (16,4%) StorageOil % Gas - 7,724 10,912 12,595 17,285 17,285 fired (36,3%) (25,4%) (18,7%) (17,9%) (12,6%)Coal-fired 3,940 15,255 30,765 44,790 76,310 (18,5%) (35,5%) (45,9%) (46,3%) (55,7%) Import 1,000 1,073 1,839 3,509 5,259 (4,7%) (2,5%) ( 2,7%) (3,6%) (3,8%)Renewable 678 1,679 3,129 4,829 4,929 (3,2%) (3,9%) (4,7%) (5,0%) (3,6%) Nuclear 1,000 6,000 10,700 (1,5%) (6,2%) (7,8%) 7
  8. 8. 1.5. Overall status of nuclear power programme in Vienam (1/2)• November, 2009 Vietnams National Assembly approved the Government Plan on the implementation of the Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Project composed of Ninh Thuan 1 and Ninh Thuan 2 NPPs.• June 2010, the Prime Minister approved Master Plan for the Implementation of the Strategy for Peaceful Utilization of Atomic Energy up to 2020, of which Ministry of Construction was assigned to conduct a Project on “Planning Site for Radioactive Waste Disposal” and submit to Prime Minister for approval by end of 2015.• October 2010, Vietnam and Russia signed an Inter-governmental Agreement on Cooperation in Construction of NPP in Vietnam.• October 2011, Vietnam and Japan signed an Arrangement on Cooperation in Construction of Ninh Thuan 2 NPP.• July 2011, the Vietnam’s Prime Minister approved Master Plan on Electricity Development, period 2011-2020 with vision to 2030. 8
  9. 9. 1.5. Overall status of nuclear power programme in Vienam (2/2)According the Master Plan:• Ninh Thuan 1 consists of 4 units x 1000 MW; the first unit construction planned to start by the end of 2014; Units 1 & 2 will be put into operation in the 2020-2021; Units 3 & 4 in 2024-2025;• Ninh Thuan 2 consists of 4 units x 1,000 MW, the first unit construction start by end of 2015; Units 1 & 2 will be put into operation in 2021-2022; Units 3 & 4 in 2026-2027.• From 2020 to 2027, every year, there will be about 1,000 MW of NP to be added to national electricity system; 2 units x 1,350 MW will be added in 2028-2029. By 2030, there will be 10 units with total capacity of 10,700 MW.• Vietnam’s NP capacity will increase from 1,000 MW (1.5%) in 2020 to 6,000 MW (6.2%) in 2025 and 10,700 MW (7.8%) in 2030. 9
  10. 10. Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPP SitesNinh Thuan 1 & 2 NPPs is locatedat Ninh Thuan Province • Ninh Thuan NPP 1 Site: Phuoc Dinh Commune Ninh Phuoc District • Ninh Thuan NPP 2 Vinh Hai Site: Vinh Hai Commune Ninh Hai District Phuoc Dinh 10
  11. 11. Ky Xuan (Ha Tinh) Potential NPP Sites: 8 Duc Thang (Source: Planning Orientation on Nuclear (Quang Ngai) Power Development in Vietnam up to 2030 Duc Chanh (Quang Ngai) Hoai My (Binh Dinh) Xuan Phuong (Phu Yen) Binh Tien (Ninh Thuan) Vinh Hai (Ninh Thuan) Phuoc Dinh (Ninh Thuan)11 11
  12. 12. Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 NPP Projects• Russia and Japan have been chosen as partners of the Ninh Thuan 1 and Ninh Thuan 2 NPP Projects, respectively.• In 2010, established State Steering Committee for Ninh Thuan NP Project led by a Deputy Prime Minister.• In 2011, established State Steering Committee for Project on Training and Developing of Human Resources in the Field of Atomic Energy up to 2020 led by a Deputy Prime Minister.• The Investor (EVN) is selecting Consultants for establishing the Dossiers for Sites approval, and Dossiers for Feasibility Study (FS) of Ninh Thuan 1&2 NPPs.• According to the Milestones approach, Vietnam is standing at the Phase 2: Preparatory work for the construction of a nuclear power plant to reach Mileston 2: Ready to invite bids for the first NPP. 12
  13. 13. 2. Main challenges 13
  14. 14. 2. Main Challenges (1/2) As a newcomer-country embarking to NP, Vietnam is facing many challenges1. Infrastructure needed for a NPP on both the ‘hard’ and ‘soft’, especially legal framework, education and training system is still at low level;2. Shortage of human resources in almost aspects relevant to NPP project implementation;3. Investment capital for NPP project is mainly based on low- interest and preferential loans from partners (as mentioned in the six criteria/requests of Vietnamese Government for cooperation partners of the NPP Projects); and4. Capabilities of R&D organizations, TSOs, as well as domestic industries… are limited; 14
  15. 15. 2. Main Challenges (2/2)5. Assuring safety, security, and non – proliferation requires to become parties of some international instruments (AP, CPPNM and the Amendment, Vienna Convention, Joint Convention)…;6. Fukushima accident raises more public concern, requests re- view of nuclear safety and related issues, at the results , licensing time and construction period will be prolonged and project cost will increase…; and7. Implementing two projects with two partners of different technical regulations and standards on sitting, technologies, operation… also causes difficulties to formulation of regulatory documents. 15
  16. 16. 3. Factors considered whencontemplating on the nuclear power option 16
  17. 17. 3. Factors considered (1/3) Pre-FS Report on the Construction of NPPs in Vietnam submitted to the Government and approved by the National Assembly in November 2009 included 14 chapters covering almost aspects (Factors) to be considered when deciding Ninh Thuan NPP Project: Chapter 1. NP Necessity: Projections on energy demand, the ability of the exploitation of energy resources, calculating the possible alternatives and giving agurments for the necessity of building NPPs in Vietnam; Chapter 2. NP Technologies: Overview of the NPP technologies, focusing primarily on three technology types: PWR, BWR and CANDU, as well as possibility on fuel supply for each type; thence establishing their comparision criteria serving to select the appropriate technology type; 17
  18. 18. 3. Factors considered (2/3) Chapter 3. NPP Sites: Survey and site selection results, including economic, natural and social conditions of Ninh Thuan NPP sites; Chapter 4. Technical Solutions: Main parameters of the reference NPPs with PWR and BWR technologies and unit capacity of 1000 MW; Chapter 5. Radioactive Waste: Measures for radioactive waste treatment and management; providing criteria for preliminary site selection and a few of candidate sites for low and medium level radioactive waste storage; Chapter 6. Building and Organizing Construction: characteristics and construction solutions for Ninh Thuan NPP project; Chapter 7. Operation, Maintenance, and Training: Operaration and maitance of a NPP; current status and needs of manpower for Ninh Thuan NPP project as well as NP programme; 18
  19. 19. 3. Factors considered (3/3) Chapter 8. Nuclear Safety: Introducing technical and technological solutions to ensure NPP safety; legal aspects of nuclear safety; Chapter 9. Environment: Environment status and Environment Impact Assessment of Ninh Thuan NPP Project; Chapter 10. Preliminary total investment: Preliminarily estimating total investment for Ninh Thuan NPP Project; Chapter 11. Modes of investment, Mobilizing capital and Finance Analysis for NP projects; Chapter 12. Public Communication and Relation: Results of the public opinion survey through the polls, seminars and exhibitions, as well as proposed implementation plans in the near future; Chapter 13. International Cooperation; and Chapter 14. Security of Ninh Thuan NPP projects. 19
  20. 20. 4. Main benefits and drawbacks of nuclear power 20
  21. 21. 4.1. Main benefits (or Necessity) of Nuclear Power Development in Vietnam (1/5)Backgroud Vietnam’s energy policy is based on a harmonious solution for sustainable development by taking into account full capabilities of new energy resources in the country, and combining together with power import, coal and gas import, and renewable energy. According to the Base Scenarios, up to 2015 Vietnam is still a net primary energy export country. But the energy shortage will be about 53 million TOE by 2020 and up to 143 million TOE by 2030. Taking into consideration all possibilities of mobilizing local natural resources and electricity import from neighbor countries, the likely fuel shortage for power generation after 2020 is remarkable. If there will be no new resources added, the Ratio of External Dependency will be 36% in 2020 and up to 57% in 2030 and continues to increase. 21
  22. 22. 4.1. Main benefits… (2/5) On 17 August 2004, the Government of Viet Nam decided to issue The Strategic Orientation for Sustainable Development in Viet Nam (Viet Nam Agenda 21) with the folowing objectives: The overall objective of the sustainable development is to create a materially, culturally and spiritually plentiful life for the people, quality of life for all citizens, the consensus of society and harmony between the people and the nature. The development is to be a tight, reasonable and harmonious combination of three elements: economic development, social equity and environmental protection. The objective of sustainable development in economic terms is to obtain a stable economic growth rate with an appropriate economic structure, satisfy the people’s demands for living standards improvement, avoid economic depressions and stagnation in the future and avoid leaving heavy burdens of debts to future generations. 22
  23. 23. 4.1. Main benefits… (3/5) The objective of the sustainable development in social terms is to obtain high results in the implementation of social progress and equality, ensure ever improved nutrition and quality of health care for the people, ensure opportunities of education and employment for all people, reduce hunger and the poverty ratio and lessen economic disparity among different social classes and groups, reduce social evils, improve equality in rights and duties of members and generations in a society, maintain and develop the diversity and identity of natural culture, constantly upgrade the civilizations levels in the material and spiritual life. The objective of the sustainable development in environmental terms is to appropriately exploit and thriftily and effectively utilise natural resources; effectively prevent, stop, solve and control environmental pollution, protect the living environment protect national parks, natural protected areas, biosphere reserve areas, preserved biodiversity; overcome environment deterioration and improve the environment’s quality. 23
  24. 24. 4.1. Main benefits… (4/5) Therefore, NP development is an optimal solution. The benefits (or necessity) of NP are considered in the following aspects:1) Economic aspect Being competitive with electricity generation used imported fuel, contributing to meeting electricity demand when the capability on exploitation of indigenous resources limited, NP development is a component of national energy development strategy on diversification of primary energy sources, reduction of dependence on imported energy, and ensuring energy security.2) Social aspect NP is affordable. It provides public with more possibilities on access to electricity, especially in the rural and remote areas. Therefore, NP contributes to raising people’s living qualities. 24
  25. 25. 4.1. Main benefits… (5/5) Especially, material and spirit life of local people in the NPP areas will be improved due to investment and supports of the Government and utilities, as the results, new jobs created, infrastructure (including housing, roads, schools, hospitals, entertainment centers…) developed, and local incomes increased. In addition, NP power development contributes to enhancement of national capabilities on science and technology, development of infrastructure, promoting development of variety of domestic industries and other economics.3) Environment aspect Contribution to reduction of environmental pollution by reducing of fossil fuel using and to the implementation of national strategy on rational and sustainable exploitation, conservation of national resources. Nuclear power contributes to the implementation of Vietnam’s Sustainable Development Plan. 25
  26. 26. 4.2. Main drawbacks of nuclear power Problems on radioactive waste and spent fuels treatment, management, and storage; High requirements of Infrastructure development; High requirement of man-power; High requirement of ensuring nuclear safety, security, and non- prolefiration; High requirements of accession and implementation of nuclear internation instruments; International relation, especially in the region. Requirement of huge investment capital with a long-time construction period; High risk may be caused by many reasons. 26
  27. 27. 5. Role of the public andPublic relation activities 27
  28. 28. 5. Role of the public and Public relation activities (1/2)• Public, including many scientists, managers, social activists, local people at NPP sites, have participated in the national debate on nuclear power. Most Vietnamese people agreed with the approval of the National Assembly on Ninh Thuan nuclear power project• Since 1996 with the cooperation of nuclear power - related foreign companies and institutions, a great deal of international nuclear power seminars, workshops, and exhibitions have been organized around the country, in particular, in Ninh Thuan province.• The public education activities have been continuously conducting under many different forms such as mass media, publication of documents and booklets on nuclear power, organizing the visits of high-ranking officials, members of National Assembly, representative of local people and government to NPPs in foreign countries. 28
  29. 29. 5. Role of the public and Public relation activities (2/2)• Government is launching a Project on Public Communication on Nuclear Power Development in Vietnam.• Together information dissemination and propagation, support for people in area to build NPPs, Vietnam Electricity (EVN) is deploying Project on Establishment of Public Relation Center in Ninh Thuan province.• At the same time, Ninh Thuan Province Peoples Committee is implementing Project on Migration and Resettlement for the people living in the NPP project area.• The aforementioned projects are very important for creating the consensus and supports of the public in general and local people in the project area inparticular, especially after the Fukushima accident in Japan. 29
  30. 30. Thank you for your attention 30

×