Prepared by Viet Cuong & Hoang Anh Presented by Le Viet CuongVietnams coal industry and its roles in thenational energy security in the next 20 years,which scenario would be taken? Hanoi, 14th November 2011 Photos: Internet source
ContentI. IntroductionII. Vietnam’s coal industryII.1 Historical picture and current situationII.2 Coal development planIII. Vietnam’s power sector: scenarios’ simulation and analysisIII.1 Existing scenarios on power development in Vietnam for thenext 20 yearsIII.2 LEAP modelIII.3 Modelling frameworkIII.4. Results: Analysis, comparison and assessmentIV. Conclusions and recommendations
Introduction Vietnam currently is an energy exporter but it would face manychallenges to energy balance and energy security in the near future. Coal industry presently plays a key position in Vietnam’s energysector. Studies: This study firstly gives historical story, current picture and prospectof Vietnams coal industry. The study investigates the roles of coal industry in Vietnamsenergy security with focus on power generation sector. The study proposes some solutions to the challenges the coalindustry would face.
Historical picture & current situation Vietnam’s coal industry was born in 1840 when the Minh MangKing permitted mining activities in Dong Trieu district (Quang Ninhprovince) Since 1995 to present coal-mining activities have transited fromopen-cut to underground.
Historical picture & current situationDuring the period 2001 to 2010, Vietnam’s coal production &consumption has been increasing rapidly. Vietnam’s production, consumption and export from 2000 to 2010
Historical picture & current situation Vietnam’s coal proven and probable reserve Unit: million tonnes Proven & Probable ProvenNo. Class / Region probable reserve reserve reserve The country 40 931 34 790 6 1411 Anthracite and others 40 531 34 626 5 905 Quang Ninh coal basin 10 028 5 907 4 122 Inland (Vinacomin-owned) 181 16 165 Local-managed mines 49 11 37 Red river delta basin (Khoai Chau-Phu Cu- 30 273 28 692 1 581 Tien Hai)2 Peat coal 400 164 235
Coal development plan Vietnam’s coal balance to 2030 Items 2015 2020 2025 2030 A Saleable coal production 55.3 60.6 66.4 75.8 B Coal demand (1+2) 60.4 105.9 147.2 224.8 1 National demand 56.4 101.3 143.8 222.6 1.1 Coal-fired power 30.9 67.3 102.0 171.0 Domestic coal supply 29.9 26.5 27.8 29.8 (VINACOMIN-proven) 1.2 Other industries 25.5 34.0 41.8 51.6 2 Export 4.0 4.6 3.3 2.2 C Imported-coal demand (B-A) 5.1 45.4 80.7 148.9 For coal-fired power 1.1 40.8 74.2 141.2 Unit: million tonnes Coal industry would face both challenges in consumption vs.production balance and challenges in coal price for domestic market,investment capital, technology....
Vietnam’s power development planVietnam’s power system would move dependence fromhydropower & gas-fired power to coal-fired power 2010 3% 0% 5% 35% 39% 2020 2030 19% 1% 3% Hydropower Coal-fired power 6% 5% Oil & gas-fired power Renewable energy 6% 16% 25% 17% Nuclear power Imported power 9% 12% 52% 48%
LEAP modelFrom bottom-up: end-user accounting techniques (fuel- All costs, externalitiesdevice-end user-subsector-sector) to top-down for any pollutants,macroeconomic modeling decommission costs and unmet demand Demand side Environment costs … Presenting results in LEAP Fueldemand, costs, LEAP by: Chart, table, graph, mind- un-it productions, GHG map... emission, air- pollutant,… Supply sideAccounting and simulation methodologies for electricity Exporting results togeneration system and capacity expansion planning MS Excel, Power-point...The study applies a bottom-up model, the LEAP framework, to simulateVietnam’s power system in the next two decades with the base-year 2010.
Scenario definitions (I) Simulate the power sector’s evolutions for the next 20years with continuation of current policies in Vietnam. (II) Analyze effects of changing energy policies to totalpower demand and power generation structures. (III) Promote power generation share from renewableenergy in the power sector.Group Scenarios Demand side Supply side Baseline scenario BS Average demand forecast (PDP VII) Continuation of current policies for I High-demand HS High demand forecast (PDP VII) power development in scenario Gas scenario NS Average demand forecast (PDP VII) Increase natural gas and LNG use Replace nuclear power by coal Coal scenario CS Average demand forecast (PDP VII) II power Low demand No nuclear power, reduce coal LS Lower power demand scenario use Renewable Increase renewables resources, III RS Average demand forecast (PDP VII) scenario reduce coal use
Results & analysisDiversification of fuels forpower generation: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index – HHI
Results & analysisNet energy import dependence:
Results & analysisVulnerability to power sector caused by high share and highprice of imported fuel: Vulnerability index with different coal prices
Results & analysisQuantities of Green-house gases (GHGs) from power sector Cumulative GHG emissions 2010-2030 (Million ton CO2e)
Conclusions The higher power demand growth would be, the fasterVietnam would depend on coal power, especially thoseusing imported coal. The current power generation development plan to 2030could be the least-cost scenario but it could ensure lesssecurity of energy supply than other scenarios. Electricity import ratio in power source structure isreasonable, which could be increase to 2030 to a highervalue. Because of reliance of imported coal which shares formore 50% capacity of power generation structure,imported coal price rise could be vulnerable to thenational economy
Recomendations To meet increasing power demand while reduce thevulnerability of the power system and improve security ofenergy supply, Vietnam needs a more diversity in energysupply, particularly power generation structure. The government should promote advanced technologytransfers from developed countries both in generation sideand consumption side: USC coal-fired technology, save-energy consuming equipment…
Recomendations Whether or not Vietnam would have to import steamcoal for its power generation. To reduce coal import, itneeds to develop local coal supply at least as scheduled. Tosecure coal import supply, it is important to build traderelations with potential suppliers as soon as possible Applying pollutant abatement policies is necessary and itcould lead to high penetration of advanced coaltechnologies with emission controllers, even withdeployment of CO2 capture system in the country
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