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Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
Creating Value in Banking 2011
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Creating Value in Banking 2011

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Reporte de BCG sobre la industria bancaria

Reporte de BCG sobre la industria bancaria

Published in: Economy & Finance
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  • 1. Creating Value in Banking 2011Settling into the New Postcrisis EquilibriumMarch 3, 2011
  • 2. Summary (part 1) The global banking industry’s market capitalization increased by 10 percent in 2010, following a 55 percent increase in 2009 • 2010 was a tale of two halves: the industry’s market capitalization declined by 9 percent over Market the first six months before climbing 22 percent in the second halfcapitalization • At $7.1 trillion, the industry’s market capitalization remained well shy of the precrisis peak— though the gains made since the start of the crisis have been impressive The banking industry’s total shareholder return (TSR) fell from 47.1 percent in 2009 to 6.0 percent in 2010—9 percentage points below the all-industry average • Banking TSRs declined in every region except the Middle East, which had the third-highest regional TSR • The highest banking TSRs were in the emerging markets of Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe Total • The reversal in performance was striking. The banking industry’s TSR went from being theshareholder third highest in 2009 to the third lowest in 2010 return Among ten major banking markets, Canada continued to have above-average TSR performance, but the U.K. and U.S. sectors were surprisingly strong • None of the other ten major banking markets achieved positive—let alone above-average— TSRs in 2010 • The performance of U.S. banks was surprising, but it was likely boosted by nonrecurring events—namely the withdrawal of money from loan loss reserves • Spain and Italy had the weakest banking TSRs among the major markets, largely due to concerns over public debt 1
  • 3. Summary (part 2) Five of the ten largest banks in the world—measured by market capitalization—were from emerging markets • Four of the ten largest are based in China—including Agricultural Bank of China, which had its IPO, the world’s largest, in mid-2010. Itaú Unibanco, which was formed by the merger of World’s Banco Itaú and Unibanco, ranked tenth, underscoring the strength of Brazil’s economy and largest banks banks • In all, 11 of the world’s 30 largest banks were either based in or focused on emerging markets • For the second year in a row, each of Australia’s Big Four banks placed in the top 30 For the first time since the crisis began, all ten major banking markets were profitable • Switzerland had the highest average after-tax ROE, at 16 percent, followed by Canada and Australia; bank profitability improved in most markets but declined in Spain and was relatively flat in Italy • The biggest improvements in ROE were in Japan and Switzerland, at 17.5 and 11.1 percentage points, respectively, followed by the U.S., at 6.3 percentage pointsProfitability Banks made less profit than they did before the crisis, while having a much larger foundation of equity • The average after-tax ROE doubled from 4.8 percent in 2009 to 9.6 percent in 2010 • The industrys profits soared by more than 130 percent, from $166 billion to $386 billion • At the same time, the industrys total equity increased by 8.6 percent, to about $4.2 trillion 2
  • 4. Exhibit 1. The Banking Industry’s Recovery Continued at aSlower Pace in 2010 Total market capitalization, Quarterly change in total market 2005–2010 ($trillions) capitalization, 2009–2010 ($trillions)CAGR1 1.3% 26.8% 2.7% −52.0% 54.9% 10.0% 4.2% −13.8% 17.0% 4.8% 10 10 8.7 8.4 8 8 7.1 0.3 7.1 6.7 0.3 -0.9 1.0 6.4 6.4 6 6 4.2 4 4 2 2 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year-end Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Year-end 2009 2010 End-of-year valuesSources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.Note: Percentage changes in market capitalization were calculated using complete, not rounded, figures.1Compound annual growth rate. 3
  • 5. Exhibit 2. Banks in Emerging Markets Again Had OutstandingPerformance 1 1 Total shareholder return,1 Total shareholder return by region,1 2006–2010 (%) 2009 and 2010 (%) −1.9 5.3 7.9 Asia-Pacific3 33.9 47.1 50.3 39.0 9.3 North America4 25.1 21.5 23.8 28.9 15.2 15.0 −9.0 6.0 Western Europe5 21.9 2.3 52.7 22.5 Latin America6 8.5 105.0 Central and 18.4 4.8 Eastern Europe7 100.0 -43.3 15.2 -53.2 Middle East8 4.3 3.6 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Percentage of global Banking industry All-industry average2 2010 2009 banking market capitalization, 2010Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.Note: TSRs were calculated after conversion to U.S. dollars.1TSR consists of capital gains and free-cash-flow yields. 2Weighted by market capitalization. 3Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, SouthKorea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Thailand. 4U.S. and Canada. 5EU-15 countries plus Norway and Switzerland. 6Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. 7Bulgaria, Cyprus,Czech Republic, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, and Turkey. 8Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (Abu Dhabi and Dubai). 4
  • 6. Exhibit 3. The Banking Industry’s TSR Fell Well Below the All-Industry Average 1 1 Total shareholder return,1 Total shareholder return,1 2006–2010 per year (%) 2010 (%) Basic materials 16.1 25.3 -61.5 Consumer goods 9.1 21.8 −15.5 Telecommunications 8.4 13.2 −0.4 Oil and gas 7.9 13.5 −27.4 Utilities 6.9 1.0 −14.7 Industrials 6.6 23.5 −16.4 Technology 4.8 13.3 −49.7 Consumer services 4.4 21.6 −8.5 Health care 3.5 5.0 −16.5 Banking −1.9 6.0 −41.1 All-industry average2 5.3 15.0 −24.1 Change, in percentage points, from 2009 TSRSources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.Note: All TSRs were calculated after conversion to U.S. dollars based on the respective Thomson Reuters Datastream global industry index (weighted by market capitalization). The TSR for thebanking industry was based on Thomson Reuters Datastream global banking and financial-services indexes.1TSR consists of capital gains and free-cash-flow yields. 2Weighted by market capitalization. 5
  • 7. Exhibit 4. All but Three Major Markets Had Negative TSRs in2010 1 1 Total shareholder return,1 Total shareholder return,1 2006–2010 per year (%) 2010 (%) Canada 6.4 11.1 −49.7 Australia 3.2 −3.8 −65.2 Spain −4.2 −24.5 −76.1 U.S. −6.5 7.8 −15.7 U.K. −7.2 8.3 −21.5 France −8.5 −10.5 −84.9 Switzerland −10.0 −5.9 −39.4 Germany −10.5 −4.5 −42.0 Italy −11.3 −24.3 −59.1 Japan −22.8 −3.8 +14.2 Change, in percentage points, from 2009 TSRSources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.Note: All TSRs were calculated in local currencies.1TSR consists of capital gains and free-cash-flow yields. 6
  • 8. Exhibit 5. Banks That Were Based in—or Focused on—Emerging Markets Were Prominent Market capitalization ($billions) 400 Top 10 Commonwealth Bank of Australia (+1) Mitsubishi UFJ (+1) BNP Paribas (-6) Royal Bank of Canada (-3) Sberbank (+2) 300 ICBC (±0) Lloyds Banking Group (+8) China Construction Bank (±0) Westpac Banking (-2) HSBC (±0) Banco Bradesco (+1) JPMorgan Chase (±0) The Toronto-Dominion Bank (+3) Wells Fargo (+1) Standard Chartered Bank (+8) 200 UBS (±0) Bank of China (-1) Citigroup (+3) ANZ (+3) Bank of Nova Scotia2 (+9) Banco do Brasil2 (+11) Agricultural Bank of China2,3 National Australia Bank (+2) 100 Bank of America (-1) US Bancorp2 (+10) Itaú Unibanco (+1) American Express2 (+4) Banco Santander (-4) Bank of Communications (-12) Goldman Sachs (±0) 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Rank by market capitalization1 Market capitalization of the top 30 banks in 2007 Market capitalization of the top 30 banks in 2010Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis.Note: All market capitalizations are based on figures in U.S. dollars.1Numbers in parentheses indicate change in rank since December 31, 2009. 2Represents a new entry. 3IPO on July 15, 2010. 7
  • 9. Exhibit 6. For the First Time Since the Crisis Began, All MajorBanking Markets Were Profitable Most profitable banking sectors and universal 1,2 1,2 After-tax ROE, 2006−20101,2 (%) banks, 2010 after-tax ROE1,2 (%) Switzerland Switzerland 16.0 16.3 UBS 30 Canada Canada 15.5 19.7 CIBC Australia Spain Commonwealth Bank Australia 15.3 18.6 of Australia 20 U.S. France Spain 11.3 13.5 BBVA Germany U.S. 8.7 12.2 US Bancorp Japan 10 U.K. France 8.3 10.9 BNP Paribas Italy Germany 7.0 7.2 Deutsche Bank 0 Japan 6.8 12.8 Mizuho Financial Group 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 U.K. 6.5 13.8 Standard Chartered Bank -10 Italy 3.5 6.2 Mediobanca Country average3 -50Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Bloomberg; BCG analysis.Note: When data were unavailable for 2010, calculations were based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts.1ROE was calculated based on average equity. 2Includes only banks with market capitalizations above $5 billion in the ten major developed markets. 3Average of all banks. 8
  • 10. Exhibit 7. Bank Profits Soared and the Industrys ROEDoubled ROE1 (%) 1 Equity2 (billions) 2 17.8 22.0% -4.2% 24.5% 8.6% 14.8 4,161 3,832 3,213 3,078 9.6 2,634 3.9 4.8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 After-tax profit2 ($billions) 2 1.9% -71.5% 35.3% 131.8% 424 432 386 166 123 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; Bloomberg; BCG analysis.Note: When data were unavailable for 2010, calculations were based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts. To meet the data requirements of this performance analysis, a subset of the full marketsample was used—378 banks instead of 653.1ROE = after-tax return on average equity. 2Percentage changes are based on complete, not rounded, figures. 9
  • 11. Exhibit 8. Most of the Top-Performing Large-Caps Were Universal Banks Top ten large-cap performers 1 1 RTSR,1 2010 (%) RTSR,1 2006–2010 (%) Sberbank 12.6 Citigroup 22.6 State Bank of India 10.9 ICICI Bank 20.9 Blackrock 10.6 RBS 15.6 Standard Chartered Bank 7.1 State Bank of India 14.5 Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Banco do Brasil 6.7 12.6 Group Commonwealth Bank 4.3 Lloyds Banking Group 12.0 of Australia China Merchants Bank 3.7 Banco do Brasil 7.9 Goldman Sachs 3.5 Banco Bradesco 5.9 Bank of Nova Scotia 2.0 ANZ 4.8The Toronto-Dominion Bank 1.0 Hang Seng Bank 3.7 Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis. Note: The sample consists of the 50 largest banks by market capitalization as of December 31, 2010, that had a five-year capital-market history. Banking companies from the Middle East were excluded from this analysis because of the lack of market indexes. All TSRs were calculated in local currencies. 1Relative total shareholder return (RTSR) adjusts TSR for local market influences. 10
  • 12. Exhibit 9. Banks from Emerging Markets Were Prevalent among Top Mid-Caps Top ten mid-cap performers 1 1 RTSR,1 2010 (%) RTSR,1 2006–2010 (%) Axis Bank 18.6 Grupo Aval 57.1 CIMB Group 11.8 Fifth Third Bank 29.6 T. Rowe Price 11.1 Ameriprise Financial 29.2 HDFC Bank 10.1 HDFC Bank 26.6 T. Garanti Bankasi 9.5 Axis Bank 25.7 HDFC2 8.9 HDFC2 25.5 Grupo Aval 7.6 SunTrust Banks 25.0 PKO Bank Polski 7.2 Banco de Chile 21.1 Bank Mandiri 6.9 DnB NOR 18.1The Siam Commercial Bank 6.0 Grupo Financiero Inbursa 15.5 Sources: Thomson Reuters Datastream; BCG analysis. Note: The sample consists of the banks ranked 51 to 100 by market capitalization as of December 31, 2010, that had a five-year capital-market history. Banking companies from the Middle East were excluded from this analysis because of the lack of market indexes. All TSRs were calculated in local currencies. 1Relative total shareholder return (RTSR) adjusts TSR for local market influences. 2Housing Development Finance Corporation. 11
  • 13. For Further ContactTo arrange an interview with the authors of BCG’s study of value creation in banking, please contactEric Gregoire at +1 617 850 3783 or gregoire.eric@bcg.com.About The Boston Consulting GroupThe Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is a global management consulting firm and the world’sleading advisor on business strategy. We partner with clients in all sectors and regions to identifytheir highest-value opportunities, address their most critical challenges, and transform theirbusinesses. Our customized approach combines deep insight into the dynamics of companies andmarkets with close collaboration at all levels of the client organization. This ensures that our clientsachieve sustainable competitive advantage, build more capable organizations, and secure lastingresults. Founded in 1963, BCG is a private company with 71 offices in 41 countries. For moreinformation, please visit www.bcg.com. 12

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