Educause 2012 talk

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  • Greetings, etc
  • 3468 W.2.2.10
  • Interactive Tools, Guides and ServicesDegree Search helps new students understand our majors as well as helps current students find new majors. Students find a major by searching on the name of a major, college, area of interest, campus and/or keyword. For instance, if a student searches for “people,” Degree Search lists all degrees that involve the study of people.
  • How Tracking WorksSun Devil Tracking helps students understand degree requirements and provides early intervention when students get off track with their degree program.Identify: Sun Devil Tracking focuses on students who initially enroll as full-time freshmen and then it tracks their progress during their first four semesters. It identifies and clearly outlines the critical courses, GPA requirements and milestones that predict success in each major. During orientation, freshmen review their major maps with their advisors in order to make sure they register for the right courses.
  • Plan: The student uses major maps and progress reports to plan what courses to take each semester. The university ensures there are enough seats so students can enroll in critical and required courses they need, when they need them. The Course Enrollment Dashboard report provides key information the university uses in course planning.Students pull up their Critical Requirement Audit to find out which courses they need to take next.
  • The Sun Devil Tracking Status report provides advisors and administration a way to track on- and off-track students by academic group.
  • We continue to improve the process and get students on the right track. Through critical tracking, more than 80% of our students are off to a good start and registered for the right courses.

Transcript

  • 1. Bigfoot, Goldilocks, and Moonshots:A Report From the Frontiers of Personalized LearningJosh Jarrett, Deputy Director November 7th, 2012
  • 2. My frame of reference Motivations:Private sector: • Increased access to• Strategy and management opportunity consultant • Hard problems• Software entrepreneur • Impatient actors• MBA • Enlightened self interestNonprofit sector:• Consultant to National Park Service, charter schools, and health services• Foundation program officer – innovative technology and delivery in postsecondary ed © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 3. In the end, the American dream is not a sprint, or even a marathon, but a relay. Our families don’t always cross the finish line in the span of one generation. But each generation passes on to the next the fruits of their labor. Julian Castro Mayor, San Antonio © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 4. Education is the pathway to opportunity inthe U.S. Intergenerational correlation between parent and children‟s income, by transmission channel 100% 12-39% 1-28% 3% 5% 8% 14% 30% Education Race of Health State of Female- Financial Unexplained Total inter- of parents head of status of residence headed assets (e.g., generational household parents household motivation, correlation = social 0.431 networks, (1.0 would community, be perfectly norms) correlated)Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America” © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 5. Higher education is not equitably distributed Bachelor‟s Degree attainment by age 24Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 –2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009. © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 6. Economic competitiveness argues for moreeducation as wellSource: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs andEducation Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
  • 7. Degree attainment is flat % of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007) 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64) 1 U.S. (39%) Canada (45%) Canada (53%) Canada (56%) Canada (48%) 2 Canada (39%) Japan (41%) Japan (46%) Korea (56%) Japan (41%) 3 N.Z. (35%) U.S. (40%) Finland (43%) Japan (54%) N.Z. (41%) 4 Finland (28%) N.Z. (39%) U.S. (42%) N.Z. (47%) U.S. (40%) 5 Australia (27%) Finland (36%) N.Z. (41%) Ireland (44%) Finland (36%) 6 Norway (26%) Australia (32%) Korea (40%) Norway (43%) Korea (35%) 7 Sweden (26%) Norway (31%) Norway (36%) France (41%) Norway (34%) 8 Neth. (26%) U.K. (31%) Belgium (36%) Belgium (41%) Australia (34%) 9 Switz. (26%) Denmark (30%) Iceland (35%) Australia (41%) Ireland (312)10 U.K. (25%) Neth. (30%) Ireland (34%) U.S. (40%) Denmark (32%)11 Denmark (24%) Switz. (30%) Denmark (34%) Denmark (40%) Belgium (32%)12 Japan (24%) Sweden (29%) Australia (34%) Sweden (40%) U.K. (32%)13 Germany (23%) Belgium (28%) Switz. (34%) Finland (39%) Switz. (31%)14 Iceland (23%) Iceland (28%) U.K. (32%) Spain (39%) Sweden (31%)15 Belgium (22%) Germany (25%) Spain (32%) U.K. (37%) Neth. (31%) Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported) © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |7
  • 8. Three challenges for the next decade Access Quality Enrollment caps Low completion rates Course availability Unclear learning “Non-traditional” new outcomes normal Costs Tuition increasing 3% over inflation State budget cuts Limited student ability to pay © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 9. Three challenges for the next decade Access Quality Enrollment caps Low completion rates Course availability Unclear learning “Non-traditional” new outcomes normal Costs Tuition increasing 3% over inflation State budget cuts Limited student ability to pay © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 10. We have made impressive strides in improvingcollege access… Fall FTE (Full Time Equivalent) Enrollment by Sector, 1987-2009 Total % Period % Change Change 1987-1993 1993-2001 2001-2009 1987-2009 15M 29% 49% 184% 447% For-profit 10% 9% 19% 43% 10 Private 4 year 11% 4% 18% 37% Public 4 year 5 27% 5% 22% 62% Public 2 year 0 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Source: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database
  • 11. …but enrollment growth may be reversing Five Reasons College Enrollments Might Be Dropping Survey offers dire picture of October 24, 2012 Richard Vedder states two-year colleges August 29, 2012 Carla Rivera …state by state, enrollments appear to be down, mostly at community colleges and at some four- year schools as well. In Ohio, preliminary More than 470,000 community college students numbers from the Board of Regents of the are beginning the fall semester on waiting lists, University System of Ohio show a 5.9 percent unable to get into the courses they need, decline, and the drop-off at one community according to a survey of Californias two-year college (Hocking) was so precipitous (more than colleges that captures a system struggling amid 20 percent) that it had to dismiss staff. In other severe budget cuts…. Midwest states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, numbers at some institutions have fallen as well. In Arizona, one large Tucson- area community college (Pima) shows a decline of 11 percent...Source: L.A. Times; Washington Monthly © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 12. “Hidden capacity constraints” extend beyondformal enrollment caps Percent of Community College Student Unable to Enroll in One or More Courses Because Full 20 and 21 Year Old Students 45 California Students 47 Latino Students 55 Community College Students 32Source: Community College Student Survey, Pearson Foundation/Harris Interactive,Field dates: September 27th through November 4th, 2010 © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 13. Meanwhile, student demographics are increasingly nontraditional“Traditional”• Enter college directly after high school 25%• Enroll fulltime “Non-traditional”• Financially • Financially dependent on independent their parents 75% (>50%) • Have dependents of their own (27%) • Work full time (38%) • Enroll part time (49%)Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished). © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 14. Three challenges for the next decade Access Quality Enrollment caps Low completion rates Course availability Unclear learning “Non-traditional” new outcomes normal Costs Tuition increasing 3% over inflation State budget cuts Limited student ability to pay © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 15. Too few students are graduating Percentage of students expecting to earn credentials who had earned a credential within five years 100% Bachelors 80% 73% Associates 61% 60% 55% 53% Certificate 40% 38% 20% 0% Total Private Public 4- Private Public 2- not-for- year for-profit year profitSource: NELS 1988 © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 16. Developmental education is one of the drivers of low completion rates 100 90 17% Never enroll 80 What happens to students 70 who test 3 levels below 60 college level math? 50 40 83% 30 66% 20 10 17% 0 10% Referred Enroll, dont Complete Pass gatekeeper complete sequenceSOURCE: Bailey, et al. Referral, enrollment, and completion in developmental educationsequences in community colleges. CCRC (2009). © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 17. What students are actually learning isbeing questioned 45 percent of students “demonstrated no significant gains in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college” © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 18. Employers give recent graduates decidedlylow marks on essential learning outcomes 46% Global Knowledge 18% 42% Self-direction 23% 37% Writing 26% 31% Critical Thinking 22% Not well prepared Very well prepared 23% Oral Communication 30% 19% Ethical Judgment 38% 17% Teamwork 39% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Source: AAC&U © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 19. Three challenges for the next decade Access Quality Enrollment caps Low completion rates Course availability Unclear learning “Non-traditional” new outcomes normal Costs Tuition increasing 3% over inflation State budget cuts Limited student ability to pay © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 20. The public story on tuition growth is not prettySource: New York Times © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 21. States are reducing per student funding tocollegesSource: TIME: Degrees of Difficulty © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |http://nation.time.com/2012/10/18/degrees-of-difficulty/?pcd=teaser
  • 22. The reality is cost per FTE at publics haveonly increased modestly Per FTE Expenditures by Sector, Indexed and Inflation-Adjusted, 1999-2009 Total % Change 1.5 1999-2009 For-profit 32% 1.3 Private 4 year 17% Public 4 year 6% Public 2 year 1% 1.0 0.8 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Note: All figures are real and adjusted for inflationThe sub-set of private research institutions experienced even larger growth in spending per FTE of 29% over this periodSource: Delta Cost Project 1987-2009 Database © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 23. The effect on students is inescapableSource: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as quoted in Bill Bowen’s Tanner Lectures © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 24. Three challenges for the next decade Access Quality Enrollment caps Low completion rates Course availability Unclear learning “Non-traditional” new outcomes normal Costs Tuition increasing 3% over inflation State budget cuts Limited student ability to pay © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 25. Meet Brianna  Started technical college with AP credit in chemistry and a clear goal: to become a veterinarian  Ambition: 2-year associates degree  Her bet on finishing college? 100%  Estimated cost of attendance: ~$15,000  Expected family contribution: $2,500 • Mom and Dad paid it  Total aid package (including loans): $8,000  Unmet need: $4,500Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS; photo CC-BY/NC (Joy Banwejee) © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 26. Brianna Took 12 Credits and Worked 30 Hours/Week Schedule: 5:30 am Wake up 6:30 am Commute to school 7:30 am – 11:00 pm Attend class, drive to work 11:00 am – 1:00 pm Work job #1, drive to school 1:30 pm – 5:30 pm Attend class, drive to work 6:00 pm – 11:30 pm Work job #2, drive home 12:00 am Take muscle relaxant and try to sleepSource: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 27. Brianna‟s College Experience  “More than a couple of times, I fell asleep in my 7:30 am class…Id get there and Im trying to stay awake and Im doing the „head-bob‟ and before you know it my head is in my book …and every once in awhile you get a wake-up with a puddle of drool.”  At the end of her first term: • Course #1: D • Course #2: C • Course #3: D • Course #4: Withdrew • CUMULATIVE GPA: 0.750Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 28. What‟s it like to be dismissed? “It was kinda…it was almost kinda like a relief cause it‟s like, you know, “Wow! This is, you know, it‟s over,” but then again, it was, it was pretty stressful cause it was like, “You know, I went through all this work, and I accomplished nothing. I failed.” It was kinda a little bit of both, and it actually hit me pretty hard cause I was just crushed. I was like, „Wow! I‟m never gonna get anywhere. I‟ve got, you know, pretty much no hope for the future‟... The bottom is scary, and you just don‟t really feel like you‟re really worth anything, and you‟re trying to get back on your feet; and you just beat yourself up cause it‟s like, you know…”Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 29. How ready are traditional institutions to navigatethe new reality? “In the view of many college and university presidents, the three main factors in higher education—cost, quality, and access—exist in what we call an iron triangle. These factors are linked in an unbreakable reciprocal relationship, such that any change in one will inevitably impact the others.” - Public Agenda research on opinions of higher education presidentsSource: The Iron Triangle: College Presidents Talk About Costs, Access, and Quality, Public Agenda, October 2008. © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 30. Or said another way… © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 31. Three leading innovations inpersonalized learning © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 32. Bigfoot © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 33. Bigfoot = undeniably better learningoutcomes at repeatably lower costs I have come to believe that “now is the time”—that far greater access to the internet, improvements in internet speed, reductions in storage costs, and other advances have combined with changing mindsets to suggest that online learning, in many of its manifestations, can lead to good learning outcomes at lower cost. Bill Bowen President Emeritus, Princeton University © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 34. The core idea: the two-sigma problemSource: The 2 Sigma Problem: The Search for Methods of Group Instruction as © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | Effective as One-to-One Tutoring, Benjamin S. Bloom, Educational Researcher, 1984
  • 35. Closing the loop on learning “What don’t I Learning know?” Feedback Loop Student Data Alignment Alignment Learning Alignment Objectives “How did “How do I I do?” learn this?” Assessment Content © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 36. Example: Carnegie Mellon OpenLearning InitiativeSource: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 37. Example: Carnegie Mellon OpenLearning InitiativeSource: Ithaka © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 38. Example: National Center for AcademicTransformation (NCAT) Student success (C or better) Changing the Equation Initiative +50% • Redesign full developmental math sequence based on proven model Before redesign After redesign • 100,000+ students at 35 community colleges Costs per student • Technology partners include Pearson MyMathLab, ALEKS, Hawkes -30% Learning System, etc. Before redesign After redesign © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |Source: National Center for Academic Transformation 38
  • 39. Example: NROC Math © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 40. Example: Arizona State University andKnewton The outcome: After one semester of use with over 5,000 remedial math students at ASU, withdrawal rates dropped by 50% and pass rates went from 66% to 75%. Half the class finished 4 weeks early.Source: ASU © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 41. What carries the flipped classroominto general education? © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 42. Goldilocks © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 43. Time-to-degree tracks of “4-year” students Per semester credits: 4 year: >=15 5 year: 12-14 6 year: <12Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS;
  • 44. There are real costs to poor advisingand degree planning Community college educational costs by course type Courses contributing to a degree taken by Courses taken by completers* non-completers* 33 46 14 Excess courses taken by completers* 7 beyond minimum Courses failed/withdrawn by completers** Completers defined as students seeking a degree who earned a certificate, Associate’s, or Bachelor’s degreewithin 6 years of enrolling. © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |Source: Forthcoming report “The Institutional Costs of Student Attrition” by Delta Cost Project, 2012, and“Winning by Degrees” by McKinsey & Company, 2010
  • 45. Example: ASU‟s eAdvisorSource: ASU © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 46. Structured pathways to graduation © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 47. Just in Time Enrollment ManagementSource: ASU © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 48. Student risk prediction and alerts 1. Finances (Scholarship renewal, to do’s, SAP) 2. Calculated Index (HS GPA, Test Scores) 3. Academic Status Report 4. eAdvisor (off Track) 5. My ASU Usage (engagement compared to their cohort) 6. GPA 7. Probation 8. Transcripts Sent (excluding medical, law schools) 9. Enrollment Holds © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 49. Impact on student progress 2007 Status 2008 Status 2009 Status 7% 7% 22% 39% 13% 46% 39% 47% 2010 Status1.2% 80% 0.1% on track by 5.8% override Completed On Track Off Track 91% On track by override Source: ASU © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 50. Model Program Pathway Design  Program learning goals clearly defined and aligned with outcome requirements  Program pathways well structured and prescribed  Students’ progress toward program requirements closely monitored; timely feedback provided  “On-ramps” help students choose a program of study  Incentives for students to enter and complete programs  Strong alignment with high school and ABESource: Davis Jenkins, Community College Research Center © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 51. WICHE PAR FrameworkFor new students: Each concurrent enrollment lowers chance of passing ~10% Each prior term withdrawal reduces passing by ~50% Each additional course completed increases likelihood of remaining enrolled 13% for Associate and 23% for Bachelor students © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 52. Moonshots © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 53. “We choose to go to the moon. We chooseto go to the moon in this decade and do theother things, not because they areeasy, but because they are hard.” President John F. Kennedy, September 12, 1962, at Rice University, Houston, Texas © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 54. …provide high-quality, affordable education at scale…“We choose to go to the moon. We chooseto go to the moon in this decade and do theother things, not because they areeasy, but because they are hard.” President John F. Kennedy, September 12, 1962, at Rice University, Houston, Texas © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 55. Breakthrough delivery models Target Performance Metrics • Completion Rate: 50% Associate’s completion rate within three years for Pell Grant-eligible students; 75% within six years for Bachelor’s • Price and Cost: $5,000 or less per year in student price and institutional costs • Scale: 5,000 additional students by year 5 with path to 50,000 • Quality: Clear definition and monitoring process © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 56. Examples of innovators pursuing high-quality, affordable degree programs © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 57. Target.com model? © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 58. What are common features of thesemodels?  Prior learning assessment  Competency-based progression  Diagnostics assessment and adaptive learning  Badges, interim milestones, and motivational science  Connective media and peer-to-peer learning  Learning analytics and targeting scarce faculty and support resources  Online/blended delivery © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 59. Three leading innovations inpersonalized learning © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 60. A parting challenge Education (Access + Quality + Completion) Today Costs © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 61. The great risk Education (Access + Quality + Completion) Today Tomorrow Costs © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 62. The great opportunity Education (Access + Quality + Completion) Tomorrow Today Tomorrow Costs © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 63. What will it take? • Business model innovation AND learning model innovation • Promoters of innovation AND protectors of quality • Reimagining instructional model AND deep faculty engagement • High technology AND high touch • Design AND scaling • Traditional institutions AND breakthrough models © 2012 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
  • 64. Thank You“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena…who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.” Teddy Roosevelt, April 23, 1910 Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director Education – Postsecondary Success josh.jarrett@gatesfoundation.org www.gatesfoundation.org