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Higher Education Debt Financing

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  • 1. IPED Higher Education Debt Financing June 2007 Matthew Pearson [email_address] (212) 762-8274
  • 2. Table of Contents IPED Section 1 Why are Schools Issuing So Much Debt? Section 2 Market Conditions Section 3 Issuance Process Section 4 Debt Structure Appendix A Disclaimer
  • 3. Section 1 Why are Schools Issuing So Much Debt? IPED
  • 4. Why are Schools Issuing So Much Debt? Borrowing Annually for New Construction Projects and Refinancing Higher Education Bond Issuance Source SDC Platinum, Thomson Financial 1 IPED update Volume $MM
  • 5. Why are Schools Issuing So Much Debt? Key Questions Asked by Board Members
    • Why are colleges and universities using debt?
    • Should we issue fixed-rate or variable-rate debt?
    • What are the relative advantages to using derivatives?
    • How should we amortize our debt?
    • How might future decisions be constrained by decisions made now?
    2 IPED
  • 6. Section 2 Market Conditions IPED
  • 7. Market Conditions Historical Endowment Returns and Interest Rates 3
      • The difference between investing and borrowing is about 6% or 600 bps
        • Or, for every $10 million that is $600,000 annually of free cash flow
      • Green line shows the average endowment return*
        • Average: 9.75%
      • Blue line is floating taxable index
        • Average: 4.725%
      • Red line is floating tax-exempt index
        • Average: 3.167%
        • * National Association of College and University Business Officers
    IPED
  • 8. Market Conditions Historical Review of Interest Rates As of February 23, 2006 Notes 1. 30-year Treasury Historical Data since January 1, 1981. 2. The Bond Buyer Revenue Bond Index is the arithmetic average of the yields to maturity for 25 A1 rated, 30 year revenue bonds. BBRBI began in 1979. 3. The Bond Market Association Municipal Swap Index (formerly the PSA Index) tracks non-AMT, weekly-reset bonds and began in 1989. JJ Kenny Index is the precursor to the BMA and began 1982. 4. The Short Term Average is the average of BMA rates from a specific date until today. The JJ Kenny Index rates are used for the Short Term Average for the time period before the inception of BMA. 4 4.50% 3.18% 5.14% % Current Rates (2) (3) (4) (1) IPED
  • 9. Market Conditions Tax-Exempt Fixed Rates Heading Up? 5 Historical 30-Year MMD Rates January 1, 2007 to Present Source Morgan Stanley, Market1
    • Notes
    • Assumes 5% callable bond refunding structure; savings are discounted back to delivery date at rate equal to arbitrage yield
    • As of market conditions May 22, 2007
    IPED
  • 10. Market Conditions Taxable Rates are Nearer 5 Year Highs 6 IPED
  • 11. Section 3 Issuance Process IPED
  • 12. Finance Team Core Members Underwriter’s Counsel Underwriter Credit Enhancer Issuance Process 7 IPED Borrower Borrower Counsel Credit Enhancer Counsel Bond Trustee Bond Trustee Counsel Conduit Issuer Rating Agency Bond Counsel
  • 13. Issuance Process Overview of the Financing Process Credit Enhancer Solicitation 8 2-3 Months IPED Documents Drafted Borrower Decides to Issue Bonds Working Group Selected Preliminary Plan of Finance Determined Rating Agency Presentation Finalize Documents and Finance Plan Marketing Pricing and Post Sale
  • 14. Section 4 Debt Structure IPED
  • 15. Debt Structure Fixed or Variable 9
      • Budget process
      • Asset-Liability Management
      • Institutional preference
      • Interest rate risk
      • Credit risk
      • Tax risk
    IPED This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material.
  • 16. Debt Structure 10-400+ Basis Point Decision 10
      • Lower financing costs / relative value analysis
      • 10 to 150 bps decision with concurrent risks
      • Transfer or assume individual market risks
        • Interest Rate Risk
        • Credit Risk
        • Tax Risk
      • Customize structures
        • Start dates
        • Call options
        • Knock-out options
        • Conversion options
        • Fixed / floating mix
    This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. IPED
      • Derivative transactions are ‘marked to market’ on financial statements
  • 17. Debt Structure BMA / LIBOR Ratios Tax Efficiency of Short-term Market and Inefficiency of Long-term Market 11 Tax Efficient Tax Inefficient Focus on Long Term Market Focus on Relationship in Short Term Market IPED This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. BMA to LIBOR Swap Ratios
  • 18. Historical 20-Year BMA/LIBOR Ratio 12 Source Morgan Stanley Current Ratio: 73.31% Debt Structure Original Basis Swap Execution IPED This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. Historical 20-Year BMA/LIBOR Ratios
  • 19. Debt Structure U.S. Historical Marginal Income Tax Rates 13 IPED This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. Top Federal Tax Rates Since 1916 %
  • 20. Financing Opportunities Cancellable Swap Mechanics
      • Borrower pays a fixed rate and receives floating through cancellation date
      • Morgan Stanley owns the ongoing right to cancel swap beginning at the cancellation date and semi-annually thereafter
      • Current floating rates are about 3.65% so an immediate 40-60 bps savings for borrower indifferent to fixed or floating
    Fixed Swap Rate Floating Rate Borrower Bonds Floating Rate Borrower Bonds Fixed Swap Rate 14 Debt Structure IPED This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. This material was not prepared by the Morgan Stanley research department. Please refer to important information and qualifications at the end of this material. To Cancellation Date From Cancellation Date Cancellable at Morgan Stanley’s option
  • 21. Appendix A Disclaimer IPED
  • 22. Disclaimer 15 General Risks. In addition to any specific risk factors that may be discussed herein, there are other factors that may influence the performance of a specific municipal derivative product. Although the foregoing list is not exclusive, listed below are general risks associated with typical municipal derivative structures. Counterparty Risk. The risk that your counterparty will not perform pursuant to the contract’s terms thus exposing the issuer to variable rate bonds (i.e., not be hedged) and/or owing a termination payment. Issuers should carefully assess counterparty risk when engaging in municipal derivatives transactions. Basis Risk. Basis risk refers to the mismatch between the variable rate payments received on a swap contract and the interest payment actually owed on the bonds. The two significant components driving this risk are credit and BMA/LIBOR ratios. Credit may create basis risk because an issuer’s bonds may trade differently than the swap index as a result of a credit change in the issuer. BMA/LIBOR ratios (or spreads) may create basis risk under percentage of LIBOR swaps if the issuer’s bonds trade at a higher percentage of LIBOR than the index received on the swap. This can occur due to many factors including, without limitation, changes in marginal tax rates, tax exempt status of bonds, and supply and demand for variable rate bonds. Amortization Risk. This risk represents the potential cost to the issuer from a mismatch between outstanding underlying bond amortization and the outstanding notional amount of the swap. Amortization mismatches could also result in terminations of portions of the swap prior to maturity and under unfavorable conditions. Termination Risk. The risk that the swap could be terminated as a result of certain events including a ratings downgrade for the issuer or swap counterparty, covenant violation, bankruptcy, payment default or other defined events of default. Termination of a swap may result in a payment made by the issuer or to the issuer depending upon the market at the time of termination. Fundamental Risks of Derivatives IPED
  • 23. Disclaimer 16 This material was prepared by sales, trading or other non-research personnel of one of the following: Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited, Morgan Stanley Japan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Asia Limited (together with their affiliates, hereinafter “Morgan Stanley”). This material was not produced by a Morgan Stanley research analyst, although it may refer to a Morgan Stanley research analyst or research report. Unless otherwise indicated, these views (if any) are the author’s and may differ from those of the Morgan Stanley fixed income or equity research department or others in the firm. This material was prepared by or in conjunction with Morgan Stanley trading desks that may deal as principal in or own or act as market maker or liquidity provider for the securities/instruments (or related derivatives) mentioned herein. The trading desk may have accumulated a position in the subject securities/instruments based on the information contained herein. Trading desk materials are not independent of the proprietary interests of Morgan Stanley, which may conflict with your interests. Morgan Stanley may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services for the issuers of the securities and instruments mentioned herein. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security/instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Any such offer would be made only after a prospective participant had completed its own independent investigation of the securities, instruments or transactions and received all information it required to make its own investment decision, including, where applicable, a review of any offering circular or memorandum describing such security or instrument. That information would contain material information not contained herein and to which prospective participants are referred. This material is based on public information as of the specified date, and may be stale thereafter. We have no obligation to tell you when information herein may change. We make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of this material. Morgan Stanley has no obligation to continue to publish on the securities/instruments mentioned herein. Any securities referred to in this material may not have been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, if not, may not be offered or sold absent an exemption therefrom. Recipients are required to comply with any legal or contractual restrictions on their purchase, holding, sale, exercise of rights or performance of obligations under any securities/instruments transaction. The securities/instruments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared and issued by Morgan Stanley for distribution to market professionals and institutional investor clients only. Other recipients should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision based on this material. This material does not provide individually tailored investment advice or offer tax, regulatory, accounting or legal advice. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, recipients should determine, in consultation with their own investment, legal, tax, regulatory and accounting advisors, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax, regulatory and accounting characteristics and consequences, of the transaction. You should consider this material as only a single factor in making an investment decision. Options are not for everyone. Before purchasing or writing options, investors should understand the nature and extent of their rights and obligations and be aware of the risks involved, including the risks pertaining to the business and financial condition of the issuer and the security/instrument. A secondary market may not exist for these securities. For Morgan Stanley customers who are purchasing or writing exchange-traded options, please review the publication ‘Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options,’ which is available from your account representative. The value of and income from investments may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, default rates, prepayment rates, securities/instruments prices, market indexes, operational or financial conditions of companies or other factors. There may be time limitations on the exercise of options or other rights in securities/instruments transactions. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. Actual events may differ from those assumed and changes to any assumptions may have a material impact on any projections or estimates. Other events not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the projections or estimates. Certain assumptions may have been made for modeling purposes only to simplify the presentation and/or calculation of any projections or estimates, and Morgan Stanley does not represent that any such assumptions will reflect actual future events. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that estimated returns or projections will be realized or that actual returns or performance results will not materially differ from those estimated herein. Some of the information contained in this document may be aggregated data of transactions in securities or other financial instruments executed by Morgan Stanley that has been compiled so as not to identify the underlying transactions of any particular customer. Additional Information IPED
  • 24. Disclaimer 17 Notwithstanding anything herein to the contrary, Morgan Stanley and each recipient hereof agree that they (and their employees, representatives, and other agents) may disclose to any and all persons, without limitation of any kind from the commencement of discussions, the U.S. federal and state income tax treatment and tax structure of the transaction and all materials of any kind (including opinions or other tax analyses) that are provided to it relating to the tax treatment and tax structure. For this purpose, "tax structure" is limited to facts relevant to the U.S. federal and state income tax treatment of the transaction and does not include information relating to the identity of the parties, their affiliates, agents or advisors In the UK, this communication is directed in the UK to those persons who are market counterparties or intermediate customers (as defined in the UK Financial Services Authority’s rules). For additional information, research reports and important disclosures see https://secure.ms.com/servlet/cls. The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have liability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. This material may not be sold or redistributed without the prior written consent of Morgan Stanley. Additional Information IPED