Japan20120531

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  • Japan20120531

    1. 1. Energy for TomorrowJose Sergio Gabrielli de AzevedoMay,2012 1
    2. 2. Looking Ahead• Rising energy consumption Income growth• Climate Change constraints• Emerging countries demand Energy Income• Adjustment of primary efficiency distribution sources of energy• Oil, coal and natural gas remain big Primary sources Energy• Time cycle for renewables Substitution consumption• New energy Geography 2
    3. 3. High energy consumption growth • In spite of the OECD crisis, energy consumption rises at high rates (5.6% in 2010, the highest rate since 1973). Energy consumption in China grew by 11.2%.• Coal consumption increased by 7.6% in 2010, also the highest since 1973.• Biofuels production globally increased by 13.8%, led by the U.S. at 17% and Brazil at 11.5%.• Renewable energy for power generation increased by 15.5%, led by wind power with an increase of 22.7%.• China had the highest growth rate of renewable energy among large countries at 74.5%. Source:BP Statistical Review of World Energy 20113
    4. 4. 4
    5. 5. Crude Oil Imports 5
    6. 6. Energy Consumption Projections2030 897.2 865.1 1821.5 North America2025 937.3 891.4 1685.82020 964.5 897.8 1543.0 S & C America2015 987.7 897.1 1405.8 Europe & Eurasia2010 1039.7 922.9 1267.82005 1131.0 970.1 1144.5 Middle East2000 1059.5 938.6 991.1 Africa1995 951.2 945.4 863.21990 923.3 1130.6 660.2 Asia Pacific 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030 6
    7. 7. Energy Consumption by Primary Source 1990-20309 Total Liquids Consumption^8 Total Natural Gas Consumption76 Total Coal Consumption54 Total Nuclear Energy Consumption3 Total Hydroelectricity Consumption21 Total Renewables Consumptionw 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030 7
    8. 8. 8
    9. 9. Difference between Expected Consumption andProduction by Primary Source 1990-2030-250.0-200.0-150.0-100.0 Liquids-Oil -50.0 Nat Gas 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 coal 0.0 Nuclear Hydro 50.0 Renewables+Biofuel100.0 150.0200.0250.0 Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030 9
    10. 10. Big Expected Changes 10
    11. 11. Oil will combine excesssupply in the long runand shortage in themedium run.Declining rates are keyvariables Reserves still strongly concentrated in areas politically unstable or with big environmental challengesSource: http://ourfiniteworld.com/ 11
    12. 12. Geopolitical change of oil production Middle East is USA moves up the main in gas and it is Offshore oil is provider of oil the third in oil the new frontier and Gas production 12
    13. 13. The cost of the new productionwill determine the speed ofsubstitution for renewables World oil demand and supply respond in correlated way to price movements. Source : US oil supply remains lagging in response. http://www.forbes.com/sites/tomkonrad/2012/01/26/t 13 he-end-of-elastic-oil/2/
    14. 14. New role for South America and Brazil Relation between Estimated Undiscovered Resources and Proved Reserves 200.0% 180.0% 160.0% 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Brazil Nigeria Saudi Arabia Iraq United States Iran Russia Venezuela Kazakhstan Libya United Arab Emirates Qatar China Kuwait Canada Source: US Congress. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40872.pdf. U.S. Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment, 2000, Brazilian potential is the biggest,Source: http://energyinsights.net said in 2000 the US Geological Survey 14
    15. 15. PRE-SALT Pre-salt represents a large and relatively unexplored area» Reserves totalling billionsof barrels of good quality oil» In Dec/2011, Pre-salt represented 7% of the Company’s total domestic oil production» The 3 producing wells in Lula Pilot rank among the 30 most productive wells in Brazil 15 e
    16. 16. BRAZILIAN BASINSHighly productive SE basins are still under explored relatively to GoM USA Discoveries Before 1984 – Shallow Water Between1985-2001 – Deep Water Between2002-2007 – Deep Water Pre-salt Cluster t 16 e
    17. 17. OIL PRODUCTIONWith access to abundant reserves, Petrobras can more than double its production 6,418 142 246 1.120 3,993 125 + 35 Systems 180 2,575 2,614 618 2,386 2,516 +10 Post-Salt Projects 96 93 97 99 +8 Pre-Salt Projects 4,910 132 144 140 111 317 334 355 321 +1 Transferof Rights ’000 boe/day 3,070 845 Transferof Rights 1.855 1.971 2.004 2.022 Added Capacity 13 Oil: 2,300,000 bpd Pre-Salt 1,148 543 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020 Oil Production - Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International •Maintain/growslowly traditionalexisting concessions, while growing from New Frontier – Pre-salt; • Pre-Salt participationin the total productionwill enhancefrom the current2% to 18% in 2015 and 40.5% in 2020. 17
    18. 18. BRAZIL LEADERSHIP IN RECENT DISCOVERIESDiscoveries in Brazil represent 1/3 of all discoveries in the last 5 years Net Changes in Non-OPEC Production Capacity Between New Discoveries 2005-2010 Now and 2030 for Non-OPEC Countries 33,989 million bbl 19% 49% 32% Brazil OtherDiscoverie Deep-Waters s • In the last 5 years, more than 50% of the new discoveries(worldwide) were made in deep waters. Brazil alone accounts for 62% of these discoveries. • Projectionsindicate that as Brazil develops thesenewly discoveredreserves,it will lead non-OPEC supply growthin the coming decades 18Source: PFC Energy
    19. 19. Risks of delivering oil until 2020 Brazilian political Project stability and International Management regulatory Geo Political conditions Conditions Speed of new Financing technology Constraints deployment for Renewables Risks Small exploratory Supply Chain Capacity risk and some development risk 19
    20. 20. Wishful Thinking Cheaper Renewables primary becomesources of economically energy feasible Energy Better efficiency rises sustainable up world 20
    21. 21. BAHIA STATE &Energy and Mining THE LAND OF ALL Government of Bahia
    22. 22. Thank You!Arigatou Gozaimashita! BAHIA STATE PLANNING SECRETARY www.seplan.ba.gov.br www.youtube.com/tvseplan Phone: +55 71 3115 3550

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