Commodity Research

Commodity Spotlight Energy

External factors driving           The most recent price increase above the psychologically...
Commodity Spotlight Energy

                                      Henry Hub natural gas under pressure again
Lacking im...
Commodity Spotlight Energy

    At a glance
    TABLE 1: Our Forecasts
Commodity Spotlight Energy

 CHART 6: Crude Oil - Future Curves (WTI, Brent Blend)               CHART 7: Crude Oil: ma...
Commodity Spotlight Energy

    CHART 14: Price spread WTI and Brent Blend (in US$/bbl)                   CHART 15: Cra...
Commodity Spotlight Energy

This document has been created and published by the Corporates & Markets division of Commer...
Commodities Daily

Japan: Commerzbank AG, Tokyo Branch is responsible for the distribution of Research in Japan. Commerz...
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Financial Pacific: OPEC outlook no need for action (third party), october 14.2010


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Financial Pacific: OPEC outlook no need for action (third party), october 14.2010

  1. 1. Commodity Research 8 October 2010 Commodity Spotlight Energy OPEC Outlook: No Need for Action OPEC should leave its official production quotas unchanged once more at its upcoming th conference in Vienna on October 14 as the price of oil has reached a comfortable level for OPEC members. In our view, the oil market is oversupplied. As a result, we expect that the price of oil will drop below $80 per barrel during the current quarter. We revised our year-end estimates for Brent crude upwards to $76 per barrel, though. Commerzbank Forecasts For over a year, oil prices have fluctuated in a narrow range from $70 to $80 per barrel. Deviations above and below these prices have been quickly corrected. In recent weeks oil Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 market fundamentals have not changed significantly. The increase in global oil demand by 1.9 Brent Blend 78 73 75 million barrels per day this year as predicted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) will be WTI 77 72 74 driven almost entirely by the developing economies. Thus far, this demand has been Diesel 690 660 630 insufficient to tighten the global oil market. The reason for this is not only stagnating demand in Gasoline (95) 680 630 650 industrial countries, but also the constant expansion of supply. Key oil producers outside of Jet fuel 700 650 660 Natural gas 4.3 5 5 OPEC, such as countries from the former Soviet Union, have been able to markedly increase Coal (API #2) 93 93 95 their oil production this year. The main driver behind the increase in supply, however, is OPEC Uranium 45 50 53 itself. Over the past several months, OPEC members have been producing roughly 2 million EUA (€ per t) 15 16 17 barrel of crude oil per day above the official production quotas to which they agreed (chart 1). High prices have given OPEC members an incentive to ramp up production, which has more than compensated for the demand growth in emerging markets. Accordingly, global oil stocks have not been depleted to date. Industrial oil inventories held by OECD countries are at a high Coal level and cover an equivalent to 61.4 days of forward demand, according to the IEA. The total Gasoil inventories for crude oil and oil products in the USA has risen to an all-time-high in spite of the Jet fuel increased demand during the summer driving season in September (see chart 2, page 2). Gasoline Thanks to robust investment demand, oil prices could remain within their above mentioned Brent trading range even in the face of the inventory overhang. The net long positions of money managers rose to more than 100,000 contracts, corresponding to 100 million barrels of oil, in WTI September. It is noteworthy that the speculative net long positions over the course of the year Uranium Monthly change % fell below 60,000 contracts only once. Financial investors were highly resistant to position Natural Gas Yearly change % changes during correction phases, which prevented a sharp decline in prices. -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 CHART 1: OPEC (excluding Iraq) produces above quota 31 mbpd Head of Commodity Research 30 Eugen Weinberg +49 69 136 43417 29 28 Analyst Carsten Fritsch 27 +49 69 136 21006 26 Analyst 25 production of OPEC-11 production quota Barbara Lambrecht 24 +49 69 136 22295 23 Analyst 22 Michaela Kuhl 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 +49 69 136 29363 Analyst Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Daniel Briesemann +49 69 136 29158 For important disclosure information please see last two pages
  2. 2. Commodity Spotlight Energy External factors driving The most recent price increase above the psychologically significant level of $80 was, in our the oil price view, essentially traceable to factors that were not directly related to the oil market and were thus not within OPEC’s control. Among these factors were the new focus on further quantitative easing by the Fed and the steadily weakening US dollar (chart 3). In addition, global stock markets began a perceptible recovery in early September after fears that the US economy would slip back into recession and that economic growth in China would slow down were somewhat reduced. Although OPEC members Most OPEC members can live quite well with the current price level as it is decidedly higher than are already producing calculated in their budgets and is generating windfall profits. Yet there are isolated calls for above target, no increase OPEC to adhere more closely to production quotas. In the present market environment, of official quota is however, such a signal could push the price of oil even higher. Oil prices are already above the expected for individual… $70-$80 implicit target range preferred by OPEC. Another possibility would be for OPEC to raise the official production quota. Such a move would take account of economic realities and bring quotas in line with actual production. In particular, Nigeria is laying claim to higher production quotas, based on its increased oil production capacity following the ceasefire between the government and the rebels. At any rate, it is unlikely that the other countries will accommodate Nigeria’s request and grant it special treatment like Iraq. The continuing expansion of Iraq’s oil production following the conclusion of the Iraqi civil war has measurably contributed to global oversupply. … or for all OPEC By increasing production quotas, OPEC members could encourage further increases in oil members production. According to estimates, OPEC is currently producing up to 500,000 barrels of crude oil more than actually needed. Demand would need to grow in parallel in order to prevent inventory levels from rising further. At the present time, such a development is far from certain. Nevertheless, given the rise of the oil price above the implicit target price range, the issue of adjusting production quotas could at least be discussed. Another option would be for OPEC to monitor market developments and, if necessary, call an extraordinary meeting in December. This seems to be the most likely outcome in our view. Oil price should fall below Price outlook: The high level of investor interest, the ample liquidity, and the enduring 80 USD per barrel in the speculation of further quantitative easing by the Fed should bolster oil prices for now. The price medium term again of oil should therefore remain above the $80 per barrel mark. In the short term, it is possible that the prices of Brent crude and WTI will continue to rise towards their annual highs of $89 and $87 reached in spring, respectively. High inventory levels and spare production capacities as well as the risk of a further erosion of compliance will make it unlikely that oil prices remain above $80 on a sustainable basis. As a result, we raised our oil price forecast for Brent to "just" $76 per barrel by year-end. Prices will not begin climbing towards $80 again unless inventory levels drop lastingly. CHART 2: US inventories have risen to record level CHART 3: Oil price driven by weakening of the US dollar (Crude oil and oil products in million barrels) 1150 1.45 90 1100 1.40 85 1.35 1050 80 1.30 1000 75 1.25 950 70 1.20 900 1.15 65 Jan. 10 Mrz. 10 Mai. 10 Jul. 10 Sep. 10 850 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 EUR/USD, left WTI, USD/barrel, right Source: IEA, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets 2 8 October 2010
  3. 3. Commodity Spotlight Energy Henry Hub natural gas under pressure again Lacking impact of the Henry Hub natural gas is one of the few commodities that could not benefit from the latest dollar- hurricane season put driven bull market on commodities markets: its price even slipped to a 12-months low recently. pressure on prices This can be explained mainly by the lack of the recent hurricane season’s impact on natural gas production, in spite of the fact that this year had an above average hurricane season: there were seventeen named storms, of which seven developed into hurricanes. The uptick in storms did not, however, lead to larger production outages. While the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipated 57 billion cubic feet worth of outages during the period from June to August, only 8 billion cubic feet in outages were recorded. In September, where a further 45 billion cubic feet in outages were forecasted, there were no meaningful disruptions in production. While the hurricane season officially comes to an end at the 30th of November, the seasonal high point should have already surpassed. This led to a sell-off by speculative investors. Last week net- short positions increased by 25,000 contracts to nearly 150,000 contracts (chart 4). That is the highest position since May. Production surprised on Moreover, surprisingly positive developments in production have been a stress factor for price the positive side , but development. Due to sharp contractions in drilling activities until the middle of last year, a demand as well decrease in production was anticipated for this year at the start of the current year. Contrary to expectations, production had grown by 1.8% within the first seven months of this year. However, it should not be overlooked that demand posted a stronger recovery than was anticipated at the beginning of the year as well. According to the EIA, industry demand rose by 10% in comparison to the corresponding seven-month period from the previous year (chart 5). Demand of the utilities sector was also up 6% from the previous year. While lately these results were attributed to high demand due to a higher number of cooling days, relative cheap gas prices, which are low in comparison to other energy sources, also played a role (chart 23, p.6). All in all, the EIA anticipates a 4% increase in demand for the current year, whereas it projected stagnant demand as of the beginning of the year. This year’s narrowing market balance was also visible in a falling inventories overhang: at the beginning of October inventories were only 6.7% above the five- year average, while the difference still stood at nearly 19% during this spring. Seasonal factors likely to In view of the relatively weak gas prices over the past few weeks, we adjusted our price lift prices in the near term, forecasts downwards; nevertheless, we still see upside potential. Prices should experience followed by a tightening seasonal increases towards the end of this year because the demand for gas during the winter market balance in the months of December to March is traditionally 25% higher than the monthly average. Given the medium term fact that storage capacities are limited and therefore peak seasons generate higher prices, prices could rise to $4.5/MMBtu by the end of the year. Moreover, we think that the low price will continue to support gas demand while it simultaneously dampens the uptick in drilling activities, and hence production. Additionally, efficiency gains in gas production seen lately might slow down and become less important. All in all, we believe that gas has catch up potential on other energy sources. By the end of 2011, Henry Hub gas should reach $6/MMBtu. CHART 4: Speculative investors increase bets on falling CHART 5: Higher consumption of industrial sectors and prices again utilities contribute to recovery in demand 0 7 8 growth contributions in yoy % chg. total gas delivered 6 % change 6 -50 4 5 2 -100 0 4 -2 -150 3 -4 * data from Jan. bis July '000 contracts -6 -200 2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 spec. net short posit., lS Henry Hub ($/MMBtu), rS residential (incl.vehicles) commercial industrial utilities Source: CFTC, NYMEX, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: EIA, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets 8 October 2010 3
  4. 4. Commodity Spotlight Energy At a glance TABLE 1: Our Forecasts Current Forecasts Yearly Average 08-Oct 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2009 2010 2011 Brent Blend ($/bbl) 82.9 77 80 77 78 73 75 79 81 62 78 77 WTI ($/bbl) 80.9 79 78 76 77 72 74 78 80 62 77 76 Diesel ($/t) 735 644 690 670 690 660 630 670 720 540 670 670 Gasoline (95 ARA) ($/t) 752 724 730 690 680 630 650 700 690 580 710 670 Jet Fuel ($/t) 757 686 720 700 697 650 660 690 710 570 700 680 Natural Gas HH ($/mmBtu) 3.64 5.0 4.3 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 4.2 4.5 5.4 Coal (API #2) ($/t) 96.8 79 88 93 93 93 95 97 100 70 88 96 Uranium ($/lb) 47.5 42 41 45 45 50 53 57 60 47 43 55 EUA ( € /ton) 15.4 13 15 15 15 16 17 18 20 13.6 14.0 18 Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, Bloomberg TABLE 2: US inventories and imports Net change % change current Comment 1 week 1 month 1 year year vs. 5 -year-Ø Inventories (m.bbls) Crude oil 360.9 3.1 -0.8 23.5 7.0 13.0 US crude oil and oil product inventories of which: Cushing 35.1 0.7 -0.7 10.0 39.7 83.7 climbed on a record high. Especially, Gasoline 219.9 -2.6 -5.5 5.6 2.6 9.7 stocks on distillates are high at the Jet Fuel 47.2 -0.8 -1.1 1.5 3.3 15.9 beginning of the heating season with Distillates 172.5 -1.1 -2.8 0.7 0.4 22.4 more than 20% above the 5-year average. The stockpiling of natural gas Fuel oil 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.9 -32.9 has slowed but inventories are still Strategic Pet.Reserve (SPR) 726.4 0.0 -0.2 1.3 0.2 3.8 above average. Natural gas (bn cubic feet) ) 3499 85 393 -159 -4.4 6.3 Imports (mb/d) Crude oil 8.9 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 -7.6 Crude oil imports back on usual levels Oil products 2.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -19.5 -34.7 Capacity utilisation (%) Refineries 83.1 -2.7 -5.1 -1.9 Utilisation falling again since July Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, Bloomberg, US Energy Information Administration TABLE 3: Historic prices of energy commodities % change Energy Latest Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 1 Week 1 Month ytd year ago Brent Blend ($/bbl) 82.9 -1.6 5.4 5.7 18.1 96 123 117 57 46 60 69 76 WTI ($/bbl) 80.9 -0.8 8.4 2.0 12.9 98 124 118 59 43 60 68 76 Diesel ($/t) 735 1.9 9.5 11.8 27.4 898 1190 1086 618 438 506 574 623 Gasoline (95 ARA) ($/t) 752 6.5 9.0 7.3 21.8 841 1053 1005 465 410 584 645 675 Jet Fuel ($/t) 757 2.3 8.6 7.5 23.3 947 1254 1184 643 455 538 609 667 Natural Gas HH ($/mmBtu) 3.64 -4.7 -5.1 -35.1 -27.1 8.74 11.47 8.99 6.40 4.47 3.81 3.44 4.93 Coal (API #2) ($/t) 96.8 0.5 6.7 15.8 33.1 137 156 191 102 71 65 68 76 Uranium ($/lb) 47.5 2.2 8.0 6.7 10.5 80 64 63 51 47 47 47 45 Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, Bloomberg TABLE 4: Upcoming events October 12 INT OPEC oil market report October 13 INT IEA oil market report October 13 USA EIA Short term energy outlook October 13/19 USA US API oil inventory data October 14 INT OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria October 14/20 USA US EIA oil inventory data October 15/21 USA US EIA gas inventory data Source: IEA, EIA, OPEC, Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets 4 8 October 2010
  5. 5. Commodity Spotlight Energy CHART 6: Crude Oil - Future Curves (WTI, Brent Blend) CHART 7: Crude Oil: managed money net-long positions 92 Brent 200 '000 contracts 90 90 80 150 70 88 100 60 86 WTI 50 84 50 40 82 0 30 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 80 1M 7M 13 M 19 M 25 M 31 M 37 M 43 M spec. net long positions, lS WTI ($/barrel), rS Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets CHART 8: Crude oil: US inventories (mm barrel) CHART 9: Gasoline: US inventories (mm barrel) 380 240 2010 2009 2010 360 220 340 320 200 300 2009 5-year average +/- 1 stdev 5-year average +/- 1 stdev 280 180 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets CHART 10: US capacity utilisation (refineries) in % CHART 11: Distillates: US inventories (mm barrel) 5-year average 190 2010 2009 95 2010 +/- 1 stdev 170 90 150 85 130 80 110 5-year average 2009 +/- 1 stdev 75 90 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: Bloomberg,EIA, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets CHART 12: US gasoline demand (mm barrel) CHART 13: Gasoline: managed money net-long positions 10.0 2009 5-year average 80 2.50 '000 contracts +/- 1 stdev 60 2.25 2.00 9.5 40 1.75 20 1.50 9.0 0 1.25 -20 1.00 2010 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 8.5 spec. net long positions, lS Gasoline RBOB ($/gallon), rS Jan Apr Jul Oct Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets 8 October 2010 5
  6. 6. Commodity Spotlight Energy CHART 14: Price spread WTI and Brent Blend (in US$/bbl) CHART 15: Crack spread Brent 321 (in US$/bbl) 6 18 4 16 2 14 12 0 10 -2 8 -4 6 -6 4 -8 2 -10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets CHART 16: Prices of distillates (in US$ per ton) CHART 17: Price spread distillates to WTI (in US$ per ton) 1500 450 400 1300 350 300 1100 250 900 200 150 700 100 50 500 0 300 -50 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 Jan. 07 Jan. 08 Jan. 09 Jan. 10 jet fuel heating oil gasoline (95) jet fuel heating oil gasoline (95) Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets CHART 18: Natural gas – forward curve (Henry Hub) CHART 19: Nat. gas: managed money net-long positions 6.5 0 7 -20 6.0 -40 6 -60 5.5 -80 5 -100 5.0 -120 4 -140 4.5 -160 3 -180 4.0 -200 2 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 3.5 '000 contracts spec. net long posit., lS Henry Hub ($/MMBtu), rS 1M 7M 13 M 19 M 25 M 31 M 37 M 43 M Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets CHART 20: Natural gas: US storage (bn cubic feet) CHART 21: Burner-tip parity (natgas vs. fuel oil no.6) 4000 2009 25 2010 20 3000 15 10 2000 5 5-year range 0 1000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan Apr Jul Oct Natural gas Fuel oil - burner-tip parity (gas eq.) Source: EIA; Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Source: Bloomberg, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets 6 8 October 2010
  7. 7. Commodity Spotlight Energy This document has been created and published by the Corporates & Markets division of Commerzbank AG, Frankfurt/Main or Commerzbank’s group companies mentioned in the document. Commerzbank Corporates & Markets is the investment banking division of Commerzbank, integrating research, debt, equities, interest rates and foreign exchange. The relevant research analyst(s), as named on the front cover of this report, certify that (a) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect their personal views about the securities and companies mentioned in this document; and (b) no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views expressed by them contained in this document. The research analyst(s) named on this report are not registered / qualified as research analysts with FINRA. 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  8. 8. Commodities Daily Japan: Commerzbank AG, Tokyo Branch is responsible for the distribution of Research in Japan. Commerzbank AG, Tokyo Branch is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA). Australia: Commerzbank AG does not hold an Australian financial services licence. This document is being distributed in Australia to wholesale customers pursuant to an Australian financial services licence exemption for Commerzbank AG under Class Order 04/1313. Commerzbank AG is regulated by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) under the laws of Germany which differ from Australian laws. © Commerzbank AG 2010. All rights reserved. Version 9.12 Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Frankfurt London New York Singapore Branch Hong Kong Branch Commerzbank AG Commerzbank AG Commerz Markets LLC Commerzbank AG Commerzbank AG London Branch DLZ - Gebäude 2, PO BOX 52715 2 World Financial Center, 8, Shenton Way, #42-01 29/F, Two IFC Händlerhaus 30 Gresham Street 31st floor Singapore 068811 8 Finance Street Central Mainzer Landstraße London, EC2P 2XY New York, Hong Kong 153 NY 10020-1050 60327 Frankfurt Tel: + 44 207 623 8000 Tel: + 1 212 703 4000 Tel: +65 63110000 Tel: +852 3988 0988 Fax: + 1 212 703 4201 Fax: +65 622 53943 Fax: +852 3988 0900 8 8 October 2010