Financial Pacific - Bernanke Jackson Hole (third party)


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Financial Pacific - Bernanke Jackson Hole (third party)

  1. 1. EFGAM Daily Investment Notes30 August 2011• Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday was supportive to Asian stocks gained overnight with the MSCI Asia Pacific index markets. gaining 1% due to automakers and tech stock strength. The Nikkei• S&P rose 2.8% yesterday with Eurostoxx up 2.2%; and the 225 was also up 1.2% with fewer worries about the prime FTSE 100 was flat. ministerial succession; however weaker July retail sales data did hit• Safe haven investments declined as improving confidence was some retail stocks. felt in all markets. Chart of the day Economics Dow Jones Industrial AverageUS Personal Income was inline with expectations; up 0.3% in Julywith personal spending up 0.8%, faster than expected.Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday focused on the slowerrate of economic recovery due to housing weakness and howcontagion from Europe has affected confidence in America. Heencouraged fiscal policies that would boost a recovery in the shortterm which would also help the long term prospects of the USeconomy and urged a better way ‘for making fiscal decisions’ dueto the recent issues with the debt ceiling and the negative impact ithad on the economy.Data this week includes real consumer spending in the US, Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence and Chicago PMI with Source: Bloombergnon-farm payrolls on Friday. The Eurozone is expecting its inflationfigure on Wednesday. Trading activity Markets No significant trading activity.Markets have held up over the last few days due to the supportfrom The Jackson Hole speech. The S&P is now down only 4% for Market movementsthe year after strong trading on Friday and yesterday with the DJindustrial average off only 1% for the year. Overnight Dow Jones Industrial 11539.25 2.26%Hurricane Irene was not as bad as feared when it hit New York and Nasdaq Composite 2562.11 3.32%the surrounding area at the weekend, bringing further relief to Nikkei 225 8,953.90 1.16%markets. DAX 5,679.06 0.16% FTSE 100 5,252.19 2.38% CAC 40 3,171.71 0.56%In Europe, the market was buoyed by news that two large Greek Sterling 1.636 -0.17%banks, Alpha Bank and EFG Eurobank Ergasias, were merging in Euro 1.4467 -0.26%an effort to address mounting problems in the Greek banking Yen 76.76 0.26%sector, the Greek market climbed 14.4% enjoying its best trading Gold 1,791.73 0.18%day since 1987. Oil 112.54 0.57% 10 Yr Treasury 2.23 -0.03%Government bonds in France, Germany, Sweden and Holland 10 Yr Gilt 2.56 0.06%edged down gaining 7bps as investors pared positions in these 10 Yr Bund 2.21 -0.02%safer securities. US 10yr Treasuries also lost ground with yieldsrising 8bps to 2.27%.Other safe haven investments declined with gold prices down $40to $1782 a troy ounce. Swiss Francs fell 1.5% against the euro and1.4% against the dollar. However better global economic outlooksent Nymex Crude Oil futures up for a third day running to $87.47per barrel.
  2. 2. Notes:Disclaimer & Copyright NoticeThe analysis and research in this publication is intended for the private use of the clients and investors of the bank. The information and data contained in this publication have beenobtained from sources believed to be reliable, but they are not guaranteed. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. EFG Private Bank Limited expresslydisclaims any liability, including incidental or consequential damages, arising from errors or omissions in this publication. Reproduction of the following, either in whole or in part, isexpressly prohibited without the written permission of the bank. The research and analysis herein has been procured by EFG Private Bank Limited for its own purposes and may havebeen acted on by EFG Private Bank Limited for its own purposes.This has been issued by EFG Private Bank Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.EFG Private Bank Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. A member of EFG International.Registered in England and Wales. Registered No: 2321802. Registered Office: Leconfield, House, Curzon Street, London, W1J 5JB, United Kingdom.
  3. 3. This material is distributed by EFG Capital International Corp. (“EFG Capital”), which is registered as a broker-dealer with the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and theSecurities Investor Protection Corporation (“SIPC”). The registrations and memberships described in the preceding sentence in noway imply that the SEC, FINRA or SIPC have endorsed any of the referenced entities to provide any of the information discussedherein. This presentation was prepared by a foreign affiliate of EFG Capital that is referred to collectively herein, including EFGCapital as “EFG”.EFG and its employees may have a financial interest in securities, indices or other matters discussed in this publication. Thisdocument is for informational purposes only and it does not constitute a solicitation or offer by EFG to buy or sell any investment orsecurity. No service or security is intended to be offered or sold in any jurisdiction where such offer or sale is prohibited byapplicable law.Any statements regarding market events, future events or other similar statements constitute only subjective views of the author,are based upon expectations or beliefs, should not be relied on, are subject to change due to a variety of factors, includingfluctuating market conditions, and involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, many of which cannot bepredicted or quantified. Information contained in this presentation is deemed to be reliable but has not been independently verifiedby EFG and information reported is inherently subject to change. This information is not offered as financial, investment, tax or legaladvice nor should it be construed as a recommendation to invest or not to invest in any asset class, index or country, or toundertake any specific position or transaction in any currency. This information may not be suitable for all investors depending ontheir financial sophistication and investment objectives. EFG does not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy orcompleteness of the information provided. Accordingly, EFG shall not be liable for any inaccurate or incomplete information. Thereport has been prepared for use by the intended recipients(s) only. Any dissemination, distribution or copy of this communicationwithout prior approval from EFG is prohibited.The index data included herein are provided for illustrative purposes only. The indices are not investable products, they bear nofees and the universe of securities included in them is broader than most securities portfolios. Therefore, the indices will generallyreflect a different performance profile from individual securities portfolios.