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OIV world vitiviniculture situation in 2012
 

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Presentación "World Vitiviniculture situation in 2012" del XXXVI Congreso Mundial de la Viña y el Vino, celebrado en Burcarest en junio del 2013, patrocinado por la Organización Internacional de la ...

Presentación "World Vitiviniculture situation in 2012" del XXXVI Congreso Mundial de la Viña y el Vino, celebrado en Burcarest en junio del 2013, patrocinado por la Organización Internacional de la Viña y el Vino (OIV).

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    OIV world vitiviniculture situation in 2012 OIV world vitiviniculture situation in 2012 Presentation Transcript

    • World Vitiviniculture situation in 2012 O.I.V.2013XXXVIth World Congress of Vine and WineBucarest, 3rd June 2013Federico CastellucciDirector General
    • State of the vitiviniculture world market2012Surface area O.I.V.2013Grape production & yieldWineFocus on wine trade
    • Surface area of vineyards• Surface area of world vineyards• European vineyards O.I.V.2013• European vineyards• Southern Hemisphere & USA vineyards• Asian vineyards• Emerging vitiviniculture countries
    • Surface area of vineyards worldwide7 9008 1008 3001000 haWorld surface area under vines62.5%56.0%Continentalevolution area under vinesas % of global vineyard2000-2012Europe O.I.V.2013Source: OIV7528 mha is the total worldwide area under vines in 2012 (including the areas under vines not yetin production or harvested).Surface are of vineyards continued to decline at a lower rate than that of the previous years.Between 2000 and 2012 it has decreased of – 319 mha, this decrease is mainly due to the reductionof European vineyards.7 3007 5007 7002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast201219.4%22.7%12%13%4.3% 5.2%2.0% 2.7%2000 2012OceaniaAfricaAmericaAsia
    • European vineyards150020002500300035001000 haTrends, 2000-2012PortugalItalyFrance-12%-15%-3 % O.I.V.20130500100015002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast2012FranceSpain-17%-12%Source:OIVThe period of 3 years (2008-2011) during which the EU offered permanentabandonment premiums for vineyards has ended: 2012 area under vines is thefirst in 4 campaigns that has not been marked by the influence of these premiums:4216 mha (- 339.4 mha between 2007 and 2012).
    • Southern Hemisphere + USA vineyards8001000120014001000 haTrends, 2000-2012SouthAfricaNew ZealandAustralia+21%+168%+5% O.I.V.201302004006008002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast 2012AustraliaUSAChileArgentina+10%+18 %-1%Source: OIVIn the Southern Hemisphere and USA, new vine-planting hascontinued: a relatively moderate increase of 0.3% in comparison with2011.
    • Asian vineyards8001000120014001000 haTrends, 2000-2012Iran+90%-18% O.I.V.201302004006002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast2012IranChinaTurkey-10%+90%Source:OIVWith 1705 mha areas under vines, Asia continues to see its vineyards growing:+12 % between 2000 and 2012 (+122 mha).
    • USA407 mha1%China570 mha19%Portugal Italy RomaniaFranceSurface under vines 2012Evolution in % 2008-2012 O.I.V.2013Chile205 mha4%Argentina221 mha-2%South Africa131mha-1%Brazil91 mha-1%New Zealand37 mha 7%Australia169 mha-2%Increase Stability DecreasePortugal239 mha-3%Italy769 mha-7%Spain1018 mha-13%Romania205 mha-1%France800 mha-7%Hungary64 mha-11%Greece110 mha-4%Turkey517 mha1%Source: OIV
    • Surface area of vineyardshas grown by 5% and more inthe last 5 yearsEmerging vitiviniculture countries204060801001201401000 haAreaunder vines: evolutionPeruIndiaBrasilEgyptCanada O.I.V.2013In addition to a rapid growthof an overall plantedarea…grape productiongrowth is particularlysignificant0% 50% 100% 150% 200%CanadaEgyptBrazilIndiaPeruGrape production:evolution 2000-2012Growth rate2000-20120Source: OIV
    • These countries are gettingmore and more sensitive tothe taste of wine1000 hl2007Forecast2012Variation%India 120 150 25%Brazil 3254 3399 4%Peru 683 809 19%Wine consumptionEmerging vitiviniculture countries O.I.V.201305001000150020002500300035004000450050002007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Forecast20121000 hlEvolution of wine consumptionIndiaBrazilPeruCanadaPeru 683 809 19%Canada 4018 4476 11%Source: OIV
    • Global grape production & Yield O.I.V.2013Global grape production & Yield
    • Global grape production8001 000MqlWorldgrapes production62,5%39,0%Continental evolutiongrapes prouctionas % of global production2000-2012Europe O.I.V.2013Source: OIVIn 2012 world production of grapes (691 Mql) decreased: - 23 Mql between 2011-2012.An increased trend in grape production (+7%/2000), despite decrease in area under vines :this can be explained in part by an increase in yields.2004006002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Forecast201239,0%19,4%31,2%12%21%4,3%6,3%2,0% 2,7%2000 2012OceaniaAfricaAmericaAsia
    • Global grape production & Yield80100120140160Yield evolution(total grapes/total area including vines not in production yet)World TotalAfricaAmericaAsiaql/ha O.I.V.2013020406080AsiaEuropeOceaniaSource: OIVYield is the measure of amount of grapes or wine produced per unit surfaceof vineyard: the trend has increased at world level to 91.7 ql/ha.Productivity is growing especially in the countries that produce non-fermented products and table grapes.
    • Major grapes producers: all usage-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%ChinaItalyUSAGrowth rate 2000-2012100 000120 0001000 qlTrends , 2000-201220002005 O.I.V.2013Source: OIVGrapes production growth is particularly significant in Cina, India and Cile.Cina with 100 Mql produces the 14% of the world grapes production, followed by Italy(68.4 Mql, 10% of the world grapes production) and USA (66.3 Mql, 10% of the worldgrapes production).FranceSpainCileIndiaArgentinaIranWorld production 020 00040 00060 00080 000China Italy USA France Spain Cile India Argentina Iran2005Forecast2012
    • WineProduction of wine• World production• Major producers O.I.V.2013Consumption of wine• World consumption• Major consumersFocus on wine trade• World wine trade: value & volume• Top world Exportes• Top world IMporters
    • Wine production O.I.V.2013• World wine production• Major producers
    • Europe72.7%Asia4.5%America17.0%Africa4.3%Oceania3.1%Europe62.3%Asia6.9%America19.8%Africa5.1%Oceania5.9%World production of wineState, 2000 State, 2012 O.I.V.2013millions hlSource: OIVWorld wine production in 2012 is estimated at 251.7 Mhl.This is a low level especially for Europe, caused by the reduction invineyards and poor weather conditions: -6% in comparison with 2011.
    • Major wine producers20 00030 00040 00050 00060 00070 0001000 hl Trend, 2000-201220002005Forecast 2012SouthAfricaGrowth rate 2000-2012 O.I.V.2013Source: OIVWithin the EU, production may be described as very low:• France: 41.4 Mhl (-18%/2011)• Italy: 40 Mhl (-6%/2011)• Spain: 30.3 Mhl (-9%/2011)USA recorded a high level of wine production at 20.5 Mhl (+6.9%/2011).In South America, Chile recorded a new production record reaching 12.6 Mhl(+20%/2011), Argentina recorded a markedly reduced wine production (11.8Mhl, -24%/2011).010 00020 000-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%RoumaniaFranceSpianItalyBrazilGreeceWorld TotalGermanyPortugalArgentinaUSAChinaSouthAfrica
    • France41422 mhl-3%Spain30392 mhl-15%USA515 mhl-1%Germany9012 mhl-10%Russian Federation6400 mhl-10%Portugal6141 mhl8% Hungary1874 mhl-46%Bulgaria1337 mhl-17%Romania3311 mhl-36%China14880 mhl18%Production of wine in 2012Evolution in % 2008-2012 O.I.V.2013Increase DecreaseArgentina11778mhl-20%Australia12660 mhl2%Chile12554 mhl45%South Africa1037 mhl-1%Brasil2917mhl-21%New zeland1940 mhl-5%-46% -17%Czech Rep.470 mhl-44%-36%Italy40060 mhl-15%Greece3150 mhl-19%Source: OIVStability
    • Wine consumption O.I.V.2013• World consumption• Major consumers
    • World consumption of wine210230250270290millions of hlWorld wine Consumption69.3%62.0%Continental evolution total wineconsumption as % of worldconsumption2000-2012Europe O.I.V.20132012 world wine consumptionrose to 243.2 Mhl: a confirmedrecovery of internal demand.Source: OIV1501701902102000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Forecast201262.0%6.0%10.0%19.8%22.0%3.0%3.0%1.9%3.0%2000 2012OceaniaAfricaAmericaAsia
    • Wine Consumption5 00010 00015 00020 00025 00030 00035 00040 0001000 hl Trend, 2000-201220002005Forecast2012ArgentinaItalySpianRoumaniaGrowth rate 2000-2012 O.I.V.2013Source: OIVCountries that are historically big producers and consumers havereduced their level of consumption:• France (-12%/2000);• Italy (-27%/2000);• Spain (-34%/2000)05 000-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%RussianFederationChinaAustraliaUSAUnited KingdomChileWorld TotalBrazilGreeceGermanyPortugalSouth AfricaFranceArgentinaSource:OIVUSA is becoming the largest internal market in the world in terms of volume,internal consumption: 29 Mhl in 2012 (+37%/2000).Wine consumption is rising sharply in Asia: continued growth in China(+67%/2000).
    • Focus on Wine trade**• World wine trade: value & volume O.I.V.2013*in collaboration with the Spanish Observatory of Wine Markets (OeMv)• World wine trade: value & volume• Top world Exportes• Top world IMportersNOTE: data for world trade are taken from GTA, which, in turn, take them from official administration bodies in more than 80 countries of the world. Not all countries are, therefore,included.
    • International wine tradeAccording to data officially provided to the OIV in 2012 :world market, considered as the sum of exports from all countries reached102.2 Mhl O.I.V.2013102.2 Mhlworld import stood at 97.9 MhlData for the special focus on world trade are taken from GTA, representing morethan 80 countries.
    • 15 77516 39317 75019 924 20 04217 95320 94723 34525 290World wine trade in Euros and LitresSource: GTA, OIV,OeMv€/LMill €Mill l.Less wine traded, though more expensive O.I.V.20132.27 2.30 2.12 2.19 2.13 2.14 2.17 2.20 2.29 2.08 2.23 2.322.5513 767 14 16614 964 15 25915 77516 3936 066 6 1577 061 6 9587 413 7 6438 1979 048 8 749 8 6149 38510 073 9 9032000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012World trade of wine and must increased in 2012 by 8.3% in value, up to25.290 million Euros (exporters’ data) but fell by 1.7% in volume, to 99 Mhl,with average prices up by 10.2%
    • Changing the composition: value9.0% 8.2% 7.8% 8.6% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.4% 9.2% 10.0% 9.7% 10.2% 11.0%MustBulk+ 2% O.I.V.2013In value terms, since the beginning of the Century, Sparkling remains with the same share (around17% of total), whereas 2 percentage points are exchanged between bottled wine (less) and winesold in bulk (more).16.9% 15.4% 16.2% 16.8% 17.1% 17.9% 18.6% 19.7% 19.9% 16.5% 16.7% 17.0% 17.1%73.7% 76.1% 75.6% 74.3% 73.3% 73.2% 72.6% 71.6% 70.7%73.1% 73.2% 72.4% 71.5%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012BulkBottledSparkling- 2.2%
    • Bottled and bulk categories: volume60.1%62.9%64.5%60.6% 59.9%61.6%59.4%57.7% 57.7% 57.2% 56.8%54.9% 55.4%Bottled O.I.V.2013More clearly, in terms of volume where wine in bulk and containers above 2 l. are getting closeto 38% of total market (up 3 percentage points since 2000), bottled wines reduce their sharefrom 60% to 55% in the same period.33.6%30.9%29.1%32.6% 33.5%32.0%34.5%35.8% 35.1% 36.1% 36.3%37.8% 37.5%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Bulk
    • Top world ExportersTop wine world exporters2011 2012 Variation 2011 2012 Variation 2011 2012 VariationFrance 7 194.1 7 836.6 8.9% 1 419.4 1 499.2 5.6% 5.07 5.23 3.1%Italy 4 404.7 4 690.6 6.5% 2 323.8 2 120.0 -8.8% 1.90 2.21 16.7%Spain 2 215.1 2 359.9 6.5% 2 254.9 1 947.2 -13.6% 0.98 1.21 23.4%Germany 981.4 973.7 -0.8% 415.1 396.0 -4.6% 2.36 2.46 4.0%Portugal 657.8 707.5 7.6% 307.6 338.6 10.1% 2.14 2.09 -2.3%Mill. € Mill. l. €/l7.2% -6.2% 14.4% O.I.V.2013Top wine exporters account for almost 90% of total value and more than 92% of total volume. With“traditional” producers growing in 2012 at a rate of 7.2% in Euros, versus 11.7% for “new”exporters. However, sales for the traditional producers decreased by 6.2% in volume whereas thatof “new” producers increased last year by 6.4%.Similarly, export average prices grew faster in the“old world” (14.4%) than in the “new” (5%).Portugal 657.8 707.5 7.6% 307.6 338.6 10.1% 2.14 2.09 -2.3%Australia 1 426.7 1 523.7 6.8% 720.5 734.9 2.0% 1.98 2.07 4.7%Chile 1 220.5 1 399.5 14.7% 666.6 751.7 12.8% 1.83 1.86 1.7%USA 966.7 1 077.4 11.5% 421.8 400.9 -5.0% 2.29 2.69 17.3%New Zealand 646.5 767.0 18.6% 168.1 175.8 4.6% 3.85 4.36 13.5%Argentina 610.1 711.3 16.6% 317.1 364.7 15.0% 1.92 1.95 1.4%South Africa 541.8 566.1 4.5% 375.2 412.8 10.0% 1.44 1.37 -5.0%Rest of theworld2 479.4 2 676.7 8.0% 682.4 761.6 11.6% 3.63 3.51 -3.3%WORLD TOTAL 23 344.8 25 290.0 8.3% 10 072.6 9 903.3 -1.7% 2.32 2.55 10.2%11.7%6.4% 5%
    • Top 26 world importers of wine in terms ofvalue (2012) account for 93% of worldimports, divided into 5 major areas.Top world ImportersTOTAL"OLD"TOTAL"NEW"OtherexportersTOTALWORLDimport% totalworldimportsEvolutionin %2011-12United Kingdom 2 712.9 1 157.7 73.1 3 943.74 15.8% 13.6%Germany 1 934.9 330.7 128.0 2 393.55 9.6% 0.6%Netherlands 572.0 199.8 101.2 872.97 3.5% 4.6%Belgium 823.8 68.5 71.9 964.18 3.9% 4.4%France 412.8 84.2 134.3 631.26 2.5% 1.5%Sweden 320.2 160.1 60.7 540.93 2.2% 5.9%2012 mill €Other topRestWorld wineimports 2012: value O.I.V.2013Sweden 320.2 160.1 60.7 540.93 2.2% 5.9%Denmark 333.4 128.6 36.6 498.65 2.0% -1.6%Italy 248.3 38.0 19.2 305.46 1.2% 2.5%Austria 187.9 15.2 4.5 207.55 0.8% 15.4%Ireland 111.0 113.6 22.6 247.15 1.0% 9.2%Finland 92.3 61.9 30.4 184.67 0.7% 5.1%Poland 123.0 20.8 35.4 179.16 0.7% 7.6%Tchek Republic 106.1 6.6 58.6 171.34 0.7% 4.0%Lithuania 141.1 4.0 18.1 163.21 0.7% 32.8%TOP EU 8 119.6 2 389.7 794.5 11 303.81 45.2% 6.8%Switzerland 823.8 70.2 33.0 926.98 3.7% 8.3%Norway 265.1 37.7 15.6 318.49 1.3% 10.4%Russia 517.4 96.5 203.7 817.51 3.3% 18.4%TOP OTHER EUROPE 1 606.3 204.4 252.3 2 062.98 8.3% 12.4%Other importers 1 026.1 437.9 206.4 1 670.3 6.7% 9.9%WORLD TOTAL 17 110.6 6 325.2 1 559.4 24 995.2 100.0% 9.8%EURESTOFEUROPENorthAmerica22.5%EU45.2%Rest ofEurope8.3%Asia14.5%Other top2.8%Rest6.7%With different developments last year, NorthAmerica, non-EU Europe and Asia were themost dynamic in €uros.
    • Top 26 world importers of wine in terms ofvalue (2012) account for 93% of worldimports, divided into 5 major areas.Top world ImportersTOTAL"OLD"TOTAL"NEW"OtherexportersTOTALWORLDimport% totalworldimportsEvolutionin %2011-12USA 2625.2 1240.7 73.0 3938.96 15.8% 13.8%Canada 793.5 731.3 15.3 1540.16 6.2% 12.1%México 96.6 50.8 0.9 148.30 0.6% 9.9%N. AMERICA 3515.3 2022.8 89.3 5627.42 22.5% 13.2%China 800.7 397.4 31.8 1229.98 4.9% 18.5%2012mill €NORTHAMERICAOther top2.8%RestWorld wineimports 2012: value O.I.V.2013China 800.7 397.4 31.8 1229.98 4.9% 18.5%Japan 937.7 276.9 10.6 1225.15 4.9% 27.5%Hong Kong 517.3 144.6 145.0 806.97 3.2% -10.9%Singapour 278.5 71.9 19.3 369.70 1.5% 7.4%TOPASIA 2534.2 890.8 206.8 3631.79 14.5% 11.8%Australia 205.0 253.3 6.3 464.52 1.9% 21.8%Brazil 104.1 126.4 3.9 234.36 0.9% 10.6%OTHERTOP 309.1 379.7 10.1 698.88 2.8% 17.8%Otherimporters 1026.1 437.9 206.4 1670.3 6.7% 9.9%WORLDTOTAL 17110.6 6325.2 1559.4 24995.2 100.0% 9.8%OTHERMAJORASIANorthAmerica22.5%EU45.2%Rest ofEurope8.3%Asia14.5%2.8%Rest6.7%With different developments last year, NorthAmerica, non-EU Europe and Asia were themost dynamic in €uros.
    • Major groups (importers’ perspective)North America1,589 mill Ltrs16.7% of totalEvolution2011/2012:11.9%EU5,293 mill Ltrs55.8% of totalEvolution2011/2012: :-3.9%Other Europe763 mill Ltrs8% of totalEvolution2011/2012: :-0.7%Asia738 mill Ltrs7.8% of totalEvolution2011/2012: O.I.V.2013In regards to volume of imports, the EU remains the largest wine & must buyer despite adecrease in 2012, as opposed to North America and Asia.2011/2012:12.5%
    • Perspectives and trendsDecline of surface areas (and production): will this trendcontinue? O.I.V.2013(Slight) recovery of world consumption: notably outside Europe,the evolution is a positive one although 2008 levels have not yetbeen met.Decrease in available volume of export resulting in a reductionfrom the bulk wine, particularly for European producers.
    • Thank you for your attentionVielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit O.I.V.2013Grazie per la Loro attenzioneGracias por su atenciónMerci de votre attention