The Google-ITA Software Deal - can mobile voice recognition spark travel search innovation? - Oct 2010

Alford Strategic October 2010 Development The Google – ITA Software deal How Android voice integration with ITA can drive travel innovation and create a more effective consumer experienceAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 1

Introduction Google’s $700 M acquisition of ITA has driven both good debate and sometimes illogical lobbying on risks to airfare search integrity, competitor web traffic, advertising costs, and service to air industry customers. There are positive opportunities, of course, and here we focus on a specific, less-publicized one that could have a meaningful impact in the near future: Based on our tests, Google’s Android voice recognition outperforms Bing, Vlingo and possibly other speech solutions in travel-focused natural language search and is almost ready for mainstream adoption Integrating with ITA’s airfare query structure (and potentially hotels) is a key opportunity for Google-ITA to drive industry innovation and create a better consumer travel search experienceAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 2

How it could work – the basic process Google-ITA could convert spoken natural language terms to voice objects similar to drop down selections in booking engines, which would then integrate with the fare search query data structure. Hotel search is a potential opportunity as well. “Fly 1st-class Seattle to LA August 25 coming back August 28 on Virgin America” Google ITA Software VXML 3.0 SISR QPX fare search Analyzes voice input Semantic Interpretation for Voice objects matched to using Speech Recognition Speech Recognition extracts data structure for fare search Grammar Specifications key travel terms to convert to query and result processing (SRGS) to translate to text voice objectsAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 3

Potential high-level impact In a sense, this is a component of a larger potential Google PC and mobile metasearch play, but it also impacts a key area of consumer experience needing improvement, and implications of leveraging the Android platform could include: • Cutting multiple inefficient and redundant steps out of today’s mobile search and travel intermediary experience • Enabling consumers to bypass OTA and Metasearch competitors, who could not easily replicate it without considerable capital investment • Encouraging competitors to innovate and find other ways to improve and bring their mobile products to consumers • Prompting Microsoft and Apple to leverage their mobile platforms and alter the intermediary landscape furtherAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 4

Potential vs current mobile search experience Compared to today’s mobile search experience, voice search with fare integration would be much faster than inconsistent text links due to SEM/SEO manipulation, redundant steps, and multiple drop-down or typing fields Speak or Type Speak or Touch to Speak or Touch to to search select airline select flightPotential Voice search to booking path Airline / OTA Booking path Speak or type Inefficient Re-select Flight result Re-enter terms in multiple fields to search text links “Flight” matrix or listCurrent mobilesearch to OTA mobile path Airline / OTA Booking path Note: Expedia used for demonstration of general steps, not to imply variance in quality relative to other OTA pathsAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 5

Potential vs mobile app download experience Comparing to downloaded mobile apps, current metasearch or OTA apps also require several additional steps, including multiple drop-down or typing fields and additional site selections Speak or Type Speak or Touch to Speak or Touch to to search select airline select flightPotential Voice search to booking path Airline / OTA Booking path Open app Multiple text, calendar, Flight result Flight detail Choose OTA or drop-down fields matrix or list or supplier Current metasearchmobile app path Airline / OTA Booking path Note: Kayak used for demonstration of general steps, not to imply variance in quality relative to other metasearch appsAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 6

Why timing is right for Google’s opportunity Speech recognition has seemed promising for years, but has mainly been limited to electronic voice menus…so what technology and consumer forces are aligning with Google capabilities to enable this now? Consumer adoption and Technology elements Google advantages Android currently outperforms Travel lends well to speech Microsoft and Vlingo for natural recognition – demonstrated in language voice search of travel terms Defense Dept tests 1991-1995 Travel is a strong candidate for mobile voice In a short period of time, 25% of Smartphone penetration, search and multimodal Android searches are already Voice processing power, and dual engagement microphones growing rapidly Google has invested heavily to train speech algorithms Google-ITA will have the Cloud enables network-based tools to execute it speech to process larger vocabularies than embedded apps Mobile and Tablet search should be 15% of searches by 2013-2014 Travel planning requires relatively small grammar sets Consumers rapidly adopting voice in local search, car navigation, and platforms like Microsoft KinectAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 7

Competitive implications Only Google-ITA could achieve proprietary voice and fare technology integration, but Microsoft and Apple (a threat to enter) own their mobile and speech platforms and have a key advantage in interfacing voice search directly with consumers. OTA and Metasearch players are at risk if Google, Microsoft or Apple leverage ownership of mobile platforms and would also need to partner with Vlingo, Loquendo, Nuance or others to embed speech. Mobile platform Speech platform Fare query platform Android Android ITA Software iPhone Siri Travelport ePricing Windows Phone 7 MSFT Speech / Tellme Amadeus Meta-pricer Sabre Vlingo None Vayant Nuance Must distribute apps Loquendo Everbread or gain search traffic through Android, Promptu Expedia BFS WP7 and iPhone MSFT API (if productized) platforms Android SDKAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 8

Sample testing shows Android advantage and challenges To evaluate the readiness of voice search platforms to handle travel-specific natural language input strings, we tested 140 searches on Android, Bing (Windows Phone 7), and Vlingo speech platforms (see Appendix for specific samples). Our tests indicate Android is currently more advanced for travel, while Bing performed fairly well and Vlingo was poor. Sample - “Fly 1st-class Seattle to LA August 25 coming back August 28 on Virgin America” Key term mean search mean mean error Platform Noise level success rate WER Queries time (sec) words words Android loud - Starbucks 30% 29% 20 7.4 12.4 3.6 Android quiet - office 85% 4% 20 3.7 13.2 0.6 Windows Phone 7 quiet - office 70% 7% 20 4.9 13.2 0.9 Vlingo quiet - office 10% 15% 20 3.5 13.2 2.0 Improved accuracy and search time is needed for practical use, especially in noisier environments, which we expect will occur as dual microphone devices proliferate and cloud technology and speech training sets across all platforms improve.Alford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 9

Appendices Appendices Defense Advanced Research Project (DARPA) Travel Planning testing Travel vocabulary size and relative speech complexity indicator Lenati voice test sample data by phone platform Projected mobile and tablet search query growth 2010-2014 Voice technology provider segments Voice technology overviewAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 10

Appendix - Travel planning ideal for speech recognition Travel lends well to speech recognition, demonstrated by testing during the Defense Advanced Research Project (DARPA) from 1991-1995 http://www.itl.nist.gov/iad/mig//publications/ASRhistory/index.html DARPA’s Air travel planning test: • Used multiple microphones • Word Error Rate (WER) dropped from 20% to less than 3% in 5 years • Measured to be as effective as human interpretationAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 11

Appendix - Travel planning ideal for speech recognition Travel vocabulary consists mainly of finite sets of origins, destinations, dates, travel brands, and other key categories rather than continuous or conversational speech that becomes incredibly complex in vocabulary, meaning, nuance, and dialect. Data set vocabulary size and relative complexity by speech type • Therefore travel likely fits in the least complex speech recognition type • And reduces the complexity of creating voice objects to match fare search data structures ABI ResearchAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 12

Appendix - Sample testing results Android error rate was low, and in most cases, errors did not affect relevant terms needed to create Voice Objects Spoken search string Text result WER Search Virgin America flights from Seattle to San Francisco August 25 returning August 28 Search Virgin America flight from Seattle to San Francisco August 25 returning August 28 0% I want to fly to Seattle from Washington DC on October 15, returning October 20 I want to fly to seattle from washington d c on october 15th returning october 20th 0% I want to fly to Philadelphia from New Orleans on October 15, returning October 21 I want fly to philadelphia from new orleans on october 15th returning october 21st 7% Fly from Seattle to Anchorage August 25 returning August 28 Alaska Airlines fly from seattle to anchorage august 25th returning august 28th alaska airlines 0% Find flight Boston to Ft. Lauderdale August 25 returning August 28 JetBlue find flights boston to fort lauderdale august 25th returning august 28th jetblue 0% Search round-trip flight St. Louis to Phoenix January 5 to 9 search round trip flights saint louis to phoenix january fifth 29 17% Windows Phone 7 error rate was higher, but in many cases did not affect relevant terms Spoken search string Text result WER Search Virgin America flights from Seattle to San Francisco August 25 returning August 28 virgin america flights from Seattle to San Francisco Aug 25th returning August 28th 0% I want to fly to Seattle from Washington DC on October 15, returning October 20 12 flight to Seattle from Washington DC on October 15th, returning October 20th 27% I want to fly to Philadelphia from New Orleans on October 15, returning October 21 Iwon to Fly to Philadelphia from New Orleans on October 15th raton October 20th 13% Fly from Seattle to Anchorage August 25 returning August 28 Alaska Airlines flights from Seattle to Anchorage Aug 25th returning August 28 Alaska Airlines 0% Find flight Boston to Ft. Lauderdale August 25 returning August 28 JetBlue flight Boston to Fort Lauderdale August 25th returning on 20 Eights Jet Blue 17% Search round-trip flight St. Louis to Phoenix January 5 to 9 round trip flight St. Louis to Phoenix January 5th 29 17% Vlingo was worse than expected at this point Spoken search string Text result WER Search Virgin America flights from Seattle to San Francisco August 25 returning August 28 search virgin america flights from seattle to san francisco otis 25th return in august 28 14% I want to fly to Seattle from Washington DC on October 15, returning October 20 I want to fly to seattle from washington dc on october 15th return in october 20th 7% I want to fly to Philadelphia from New Orleans on October 15, returning October 21 I want to fly the philadelphia from new orleans on the kerber 15 return in october 21st 20% Fly from Seattle to Anchorage August 25 returning August 28 Alaska Airlines fly from seattle to anchorage august 25th attorney in august 28 alaska airlines 8% Find flight Boston to Ft. Lauderdale August 25 returning August 28 JetBlue flight boston the fort lauderdale august 25th return in august 28 jet blue 25% Search round-trip flight St. Louis to Phoenix January 5 to 9 search round trip lake saint louis to phoenix january fifth 29 17%Alford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 13

Appendix - Voice will help drive mobile search growth Both Google and Microsoft have invested heavily in Android and Windows-based Voice recognition in anticipation of Mobile and Tablet search growth Mobile, Tablet and PC search queries 2010 - 2014 • PC search should continue to dominate, but Mobile and Tablet are also high-growth • Google owns estimated 90% of mobile query share • 25% of Android searches are already Voice Sources: Morgan Stanley; MicrosoftAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 14

Appendix - Voice technology overview Speech recognition is based on the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), with a statistical approach enabling the technology to be “trained,” decision weighting adjusted to improve accuracy, and huge data sets ideally of examples of all variations of a spoken string. Since it is unlikely any two spoken terms by different people will match, the model statistically determines what was most likely said, and the process below takes place to enable spoken terms to convert to use for applications. VXML manages dialogue between person and device, and version 3.0 focuses on improved media VoiceXML control and synchronization, identification and verification capability, improved extensibility, and better multimodal input architectures via use of XHTML+Voice Speech Recognition SRGS identifies the sentence structure expected in the human voice responses Grammar Specifications SISR extracts key information from voice inputs to create voice objects for applications, and Semantic Interpretation examples include airfsearch integration with ITA data structures or converting phone-based for Speech Recognition restaurant delivery order data into a format for order processing applicationsAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 15

Appendix - Voice technology overview Speech recognition systems can be network (cloud)-based, embedded directly into phone operating systems, or a combination of both, each of which carries advantages and disadvantages. Virtually unlimited processing power enables more robust capabilities in handling large vocabulary requirements, complex continuous speech processing, and natural language inputs. Network-based Speech Key challenges revolve around latency in data transfer, and a quick and accurate experience on mobile devices. However, both should continue to improve consistently as technology improves. Often preferred since response times can be faster than network-based speech and performance is not subject to network connectivity. Embedded Speech Though phone technology will improve and many applications are suitable for embedded speech, large vocabularies and spontaneous speech require processing and memory not yet available. Hybrid or Hybrid systems combine embedded and network-based processing, offering an advantage over a straight Distributed network approach as the extraction performed on the device reduces complexity that can increase errors. SpeechAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 16

Appendix - Voice technology provider segments Mobile platforms with proprietary speech Microsoft Windows Phone 7 • By owning the phone platforms and default search applications, they could essentially control the voice search experience and market Google Android • But by owning ITA Software, only Google could create seamless voice Apple iPhone / iPad (iOS) search integration with airfare and potentially hotel data structures Speech providers with mobile apps Vlingo • Travel intermediaries or suppliers could partner with them, or they could develop their own travel-specific applications Nuance • Must market to travelers to bypass default mobile search applications Loquendo • Promptu owns ProntoTreno, a voice-interactive train services and booking application in Italy, and Flights2Go, an airline services app Promptu Speech technology infrastructure IBM • AT&T Watson technology is a key component of Vlingo AT&T Watson • Travel intermediaries or suppliers could partner with themAlford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 17

About Alford Strategic Development About Jonathan Alford With 16+ years of experience in consumer and business travel, hospitality, and retail, Jonathan’s work centers on dual principles of driving a better traveler experience and advancing travel industry/company economic models. Recent focus includes creating visionary product and platform strategies for global corporate travel firms, leveraging new mobile/tablet platform capabilities and themes of "consumerization" to improve traveler experience, drive economic value to offset rising travel costs, and deliver enhanced duty of care to mitigate travel risks as emerging economies shift. Recognized thought leadership influencing disruption of airline industry WiFi and digital entertainment (manifested in current advancements in both in-flight and "outside the flight" experience) and promoting voice recognition technology impact in mobile travel search and itinerary management. Jonathan was awarded an Olympic Order of Excellence for executive program and Games-wide operations management at the 2002 Winter Olympics, judged best-managed Games in history. He is a graduate of The Johnson School at Cornell University and the University of Virginia.Alford Strategic Development LinkedIn | (206) 734-7450 | www.maketravelbetter.com 18

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The Google-ITA Software Deal - can mobile voice recognition spark travel search innovation? - Oct 2010

by Jonathan Alford on Nov 17, 2010

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The Google-ITA Software Deal - can mobile voice recognition spark travel search innovation? - Oct 2010 Presentation Transcript