Wearable Products and Technology Outlook - July 2013
Jon Carvinzer – July 2013 1
Trends & Outlook
1. Technology Trend Adoption
2. Marketplace Drivers / Segments
3. Usage Models
4. Design Attributes
5. Google Glass Example
6. BOM Cost and Materials
8. Impacts of the CLOUD
A specialist within the Semiconductor, Software and Internet technologies industries
Have designed some of the world’s best Tablets, Smartphones and PCs for companies such as
Apple, Samsung, Google Amazon, Dell, hp and LG.
I specializes in the following areas:
· Networking (WiFi, LTE, 4G) – Broadcom, Qualcomm, Atheros, ZTE, MediaTek
· Communications (baseband, small cells, 3G/4G overlay) – Mellanox, Cavium
· I/O (touch, gestures, oncell/incell, ITO) – Samsung, LG, Synaptics, Cypress, Atmel, TI
· Displays – (IGZO, AMOLED, LCD/LED, Flexible) – Sharp, LG, Samsung, Sony, Corning
· Server/Data Center – cloud computing, storage, big data
· Speech/Voice navigation – Google, Microsoft, Nuance, Siri
· CPUs (ARM, MIPs, x86) - Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, MediaTek, Imagination Technologies, nVidia, Apple, Marvell
· Operating Systems (Android/Windows/iOS/Mac) – Google, Microsoft, Tizen
· Storage (HDDs/SSDs, Flash/RAM) – Fusion I/O, Virident, OCZ, EMC, Seagate, WD, LSI, Micron, Sandisk, TDK, NAND
· NFC/RFID – NXP Semiconductor, TI, ST Micro, Infineon
· MEMS Controllers (Gyro, Accelerometer, GPS) – Invensense, ST Micro, Phillips, AMS
· PC – Dell, hp, Intel, Microsoft, Best Buy, Acer, Asus, Lenovo
· Battery Technologies – Inductive charging, fuel-cells, solar, alternative energy supply, Li-Ion/Li-Polymer
· Accessories – tablet keyboards, cases, audio enhancers, disposable
· Wearable devices – Google, Fitbit, Jawbone – *HOT* and emerging
· Audio/Video controller – Cirrus, Wolfson, ATI, Imagination technologies, nVidia
· Advertising – Zynga, Facebook, Yahoo, Google, Microsoft, Comcast and Yoku
· Business processes – development, procurement, logistics, Bill of Materials (BOM)
· Commerce – retailers, e-tailers, hybrid delivery model – Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, Apple
Tip: Demand for wearable technology is coming on at a faster rate than typical 10-year
Technology Trends Tend to last Ten Years
Tip: New major technology cycles generally end up with 10x more users/devices - driven by
lower prices and improved functionality
Computing Growth Drivers over Time
Tip: Wearable tech is already $3-5B market today, could hit $30-50B by 2018
What will drive the fast growth towards more devices? Consider
• There are more than 250 million installed mobile operating systems that can support
• An iWatch alone could generate $10 billion a year in revenue.
• There are currently 9 smart watch makers today.
• Watches are a $56 billion market.
• Regarding retail impact, Nike, Adidas, and Under Armour have best leveraged
wearable's to enhance the fitness experience and efficacy of their products.
• The health and fitness market is about $2- to $3 billion.
• By 2020, batteries are expected to be 2.2x more powerful.
Tip: No matter what you hear – only the top players (Apple, Google, Samsung, Sony, etc) can
Marketplace / Segments
• Feels like we are in the early stages – but some products have been around for 20+
• What’s proven and has been around:
•Fitness/Wellness (clothing/activity monitors)
•Healthcare/Medical (glucose monitors/patches)
•Industrial/Military (hand worn terminals)
•What’s emerging and generating buzz:
Tip: 80% of this list will only generate 20% of the industry profits for wearable devices.
Marketplace / Segments
Tip: The average is 150x per day! That you reach for your smart phone and that’s
• Both of those content types, however, are relatively
well understood compared to the next big wave:
sound files and data from wearable computers.
• Fitness and health data will be a huge percentage
of that personal data, as more and more people
realize how behavioral shifts can improve their
health and how new devices can help people track
• 500 million photos are being uploaded and shared
each day, doubling year over year as Snapchat turns
into a real phenomenon. But photo-sharing is
relatively mature compared to…
• Video, which is on a tear. At the moment, video
growth is being spurred by short-form video
sharing like Vine and Dropcam…
Tip: The higher index at night tells you that we are already “glued” to our device anyway so
wearing it at specific times like that is a natural extension.
Tip: Apple has 1-6 already optimized via the iOS platform.
Google (not Android) has all but #4 perfected with Glass
Sensor Enabled Wearable Device Attributes
Tip: Wearable devices will offer practical, novel and fun usefulness but will also be able to
influence our behavior in ways good and bad, creating ethical dilemmas for designers.
Usage Models | Unproven but being developed
Information tethering device
or purpose built application?
Bone conduction tech delivering
music directly to ears - no wires!
SMART Helmet project funded by
the NFL and Moto-bike industry
being prototyped now - IronMan
A wearable to track
concentration and sleep – sleep
based wearables will be hugely
Use your footsteps to charge a
device’s internal battery
Direct brain wave interaction for
gaming – think next version of
Usage Models | Google Glass Example
Google Glass is a personal digital assistant that you wear:
• it lets you take photographs
• it directs you to the bar
• it points out which of your friends are there
• it overlays augmented reality layers of information
• it shows you where you can shop, eat, sleep, visit, drive to
It is step 1 towards a world that
constantly collects, uses and
exploits the data that we all
are ‘generating’ every minute
an all day long – like it or not!
Tip: I believe this is what will temper some of the mainstream enthusiasm for Gen 1
Tip: This is roughly $180 in BOM cost and should support a $350 sale price for Glass
Common Specifications to Expect
It's running Android 4.0.4 - Ice Cream Sandwich
It's an OMAP 4430 CPU (TI - ARM Cortex M3 CPU)
500-1GB of RAM (Elpida or Hynix)
16GB Flash (Sandisk, Micron, Samsung)
128x128 Pixel screen with Capacitive touch integrated
nHD projector display (640x360 – Google only)
Accelerometer (STM, Invensense)
Vibration device (Bosch)
Bluetooth 4.0 or Bluetooth LE (low energy spec)
Airplay (Apple only)
Titanium frame (Google only)
550 mAh battery (2.1 Whr)
Custom case design
Tip: Rackspace found the majority of wearable tech users said it's enhanced their lives in some
way. But among those hesitant to adopt it, 51 percent cited privacy as a barrier.
Who’s Patenting/Trade marking What ?
“Biological Entity” data
transmission - your body part acts
as a conduit for the data to travel
through, rather than beaming the
information wirelessly, which
makes it prone to hacking.
Patents mostly related to wrist
functionality – watch style.
-Wrist slap device application
-Activity monitoring system
-“Body area networks”
-iO7 integration for wearables
Patents mostly related to glasses
form factor and distinctive Glass
usage model and features.
Also patents on projecting
keyboard onto a users arm.
Patent on an invisible IR beam to
your Smartphone. This IR light
would allow your device to display
confidential information, which
would appear scrambled and
unreadable on the screen once the
beam is redirected.
Has trademarked “Gear” and shown medical application.
Has trademarked “TOQ” as a Smart watch filing.
Has trademarked “SmartWatch 2” as 2nd gen device and has
opened up the API for hacking and app development via an SDK.
Tip: You don’t just get value from connecting devices or machines, you get value from
connecting data, consumer behaviors and business processes.
Impacts to the CLOUD and vice-versa
Wearable technology and the cloud go hand in hand:
• Together they provide the rich data insights that help users better manage
many aspects of their lives.
• Cloud computing is powering the wearable technology revolution. It allows the
data generated by wearable devices to be captured, analyzed and made readily
accessible whenever users need it
Tip: Wearables won't just complement smartphones. they will serve new purposes too.
Summary | Recap
1. Market sizing estimates vary:
• According to IMS Research, the wearables market is poised to grow from 14 million
devices shipped in 2011 to as many as 171 million units shipped by 2016.
• In a more recent estimate, ABI Research pegs the wearables market at 485
million annual device shipments by 2018 – too high…
• Most likely WW annual wearable device unit shipments crossing the 100 million
milestone in 2014, and reaching 300 million units five years from now.
2. Bracelets: Right now, driven by their aptness for fitness and medical uses, bracelets
dominate the wearables market. Even if wearable computing doesn't go mainstream, smart
bracelets will always have a place in the burgeoning industry for smart medical devices.
• Fitness and medical wearables, could account for roughly 60% of the wearables
market this year, that could grow to even larger share in the future.
Summary | Recap
3. Smartwatches: Like fitness bands, they are employing wireless links — invariably,
Bluetooth — to link up with a smartphone.
• But instead of collecting information, like most fitness bands, watches will display it.
• Users will no longer have to constantly reach into their pockets for a smartphone — an
action becoming more awkward as phone screen sizes grow.
4. Eyewear: In contrast to virtual reality, augmented reality lets you see ambient information
while interacting with the real world.
• The most ambitious wearable product aimed at the consumer mainstream
is Google Glass. They are already familiar with augmented reality since they have
experimented with print materials that are readable by smartphone applications and
can create complementary ad experiences on-screen.
Tip: Style will matter in this category and currently Martian has the lead with Apple setting the
One more thing … People laugh at wearable devices
Courtesy: Saturday Night Live
Tip: From Facebook, “even in San Francisco, a dude wearing Google Glass looks like
There is a difference between ‘cool’
Tip: I have a short list of key players that are helping build around the ecosystem with
innovations in battery, flexible PCBs & displays, materials and textures.