Storage & Controller Trends and Outlook - August 2013


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Storage & Controller Trends and Outlook - August 2013

  1. 1. Storage & Controller Trends Outlook Jon Carvinzer – May 2013 1 SSD PCIe
  2. 2. Agenda 2 1. Review of Major Players 2. Trends Impacting Them 3. How to Consider Big Data 4. Workloads / Use Case 5. Fusion IO – What to Expect 6. Potential Partnerships 7. Outlook for Enterprise adoption going forward 8. Summary 9. Q&A
  3. 3. Presenter’s Background 3 A specialist within the Semiconductor, Software and Internet technologies industries Have designed some of the world’s best Tablets, Smartphones and PCs for companies such as Apple, Samsung, Google Amazon, Dell, hp and LG. I specializes in the following areas: · Networking (WiFi, LTE, 4G) – Broadcom, Qualcomm, Atheros, ZTE, MediaTek · Communications (baseband, small cells, 3G/4G overlay) – Mellanox, Cavium · I/O (touch, gestures, oncell/incell, ITO) – Samsung, LG, Synaptics, Cypress, Atmel, TI · Displays – (IGZO, AMOLED, LCD/LED, Flexible) – Sharp, LG, Samsung, Sony, Corning · Server/Data Center – cloud computing, storage, big data · Speech/Voice navigation – Google, Microsoft, Nuance, Siri · CPUs (ARM, MIPs, x86) - Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, MediaTek, Imagination Technologies, nVidia, Apple, Marvell · Operating Systems (Android/Windows/iOS/Mac) – Google, Microsoft, Tizen · Storage (HDDs/SSDs, Flash/RAM) – Fusion I/O, Virident, OCZ, EMC, Seagate, WD, LSI, Micron, Sandisk, TDK, NAND · NFC/RFID – NXP Semiconductor, TI, ST Micro, Infineon · MEMS Controllers (Gyro, Accelerometer, GPS) – Invensense, ST Micro, Phillips, AMS · PC – Dell, hp, Intel, Microsoft, Best Buy, Acer, Asus, Lenovo · Battery Technologies – Inductive charging, fuel-cells, solar, alternative energy supply, Li-Ion/Li-Polymer · Accessories – tablet keyboards, cases, audio enhancers, disposable · Wearable devices – Google, Fitbit, Jawbone – *HOT* and emerging · Audio/Video controller – Cirrus, Wolfson, ATI, Imagination technologies, nVidia · Advertising – Zynga, Facebook, Yahoo, Google, Microsoft, Comcast and Yoku · Business processes – development, procurement, logistics, Bill of Materials (BOM) · Commerce – retailers, e-tailers, hybrid delivery model – Amazon, Best Buy, Walmart, Apple
  4. 4. Major Players | SSDs (Client and PCIe) 4 Fusion I/O Considered the gold standard or benchmark by which others are judged – key differentiator is CPU cycles are used on the server/host side Violin Memory Rack mount player (not PCIe), recently acquired GridIron systems for S/W STEC Pioneer in Enterprise w/ CellCare S/W but declining player now Skyera (StorCloud) Rack mount player like Violin and TMS but more S/W IP and integration. Run by founder and CTO of Sandforce OCZ Technology OEM and SMB player for SSD & PCIe for Enterprise – reducing SAMs Virident Has controller IP like OCZ and competes w/ TMS & VMS more than FIO due to legacy S/W Support WhipTail Appliance style SSD RAID type vendor – competes w/ white box OEMs TMS/IBM Rack mount and PCIe player – most like VMS and Virident Nimbus Data They use Open array of SAS SSDs, vs proprietary:- TMS, Violin or open array of PCIe SSDs like Fusion-io Pure Storage Makes SAN compatible SSD storage w/ removable MLC drives – poor man’s FIO. Notables: Micron, LSI, Intel, EMC, Samsung, Seagate, Western Digital, Marvell
  5. 5. Trends Impacting Major Players -The number of enterprise PCIe SSD players looking for acquisition or partnership will increase by 50% over the next 2 years. -Companies that don’t have flash memory deals will be under a cost disadvantage as the availability of SSDs will be constraint in 2014-16. -All PCIe companies will experience a noteable ASP decline as competition has 3x since 2010. -Companies that have software/virtualization IP as well as access to flash memory manufacturing will be best positioned to slow the pace of ASP/Margin decline. 5
  6. 6. How to Consider “Big Data” 6 The key is to keep the “hot data” closest to the server processing – which is best done w/ flash memory on an PCIe card in the rack itself (Fusion IO) and the cold data stored away, which is best done by the tons of HDD arrays that make up NASs and SANs (EMC, Dell, hp, IBM, Seagate, WDC, etc.)
  7. 7. SOLVES: Performance gap between server processing and the storage technology. Intel provides exceptional server processing power but storage technology traditionally (think EMC) has lagged behind and database performance bottleneck is increasingly shifting towards the storage. Interfaces (FC, iSCSI, SAS and SATA) for the backend disk rotational speed has topped at 15K due to physical and mechanical limitations. SSS can either be made available to the servers via the traditional FC, SAS, iSCSI interfaces or placed directly into the server PCIe slot without requiring traditional storage network interfaces. SOLVES: Boot time and application load performance, power management and thinness. Interfaces (SATA) for the development onto traditional PC clients. Interfaces (PCB) for super thin tablets and smart phones. SSDs provide a minimum of 2X performance improvements: - Reduced boot time from 45 to 16 seconds - Increase battery life by 20-40% - Enable 30-40% Z-height reduction 7 Workloads and Use Cases
  8. 8. Workloads and Use Cases 8 Most often discussed use cases involve: • cloud-based interaction, serving, storage and processing (Facebook, Apple, Salesforce, YouTube, etc). However, the most common traditional IT use cases all involve some type of high performance workload(s): • server virtualization • desktop virtualization (VDI), • database (OLTP, real-time analytics) and • cloud computing These are the types of customers environments that are the other 99%! This is where Fusion IO has to grow and others (Top 10) are aiming for.
  9. 9. 9 Fusion IO | What to Expect in 2013 • New CEO in place using hp-style customer expansion and geo reach priorities • Expect Opex to come down a bit – the hp way. • 2nd Gen ioScale and 3rd Gen ioDrive in back half of 2013 on 20 nm NAND • Expect COGs to not be impacted in 2013, but a slight downtick in 2014 • Software developers access via kits to broader IT participants • This will help make it easier to deploy with less hand holding • Moving away from glam-usage models to broader SMB type applications • Single most critical event to their growth and sustainability as spending from Top 3 (65% of revenue) will decrease in the back half • Accelerated deployment of NexGen appliance product • Moves away from Web-scale concentration of in-server deployment to the more broadly used in Enterprise applications.
  10. 10. 10 Fusion IO | What to Expect in 2014-16 • Virident is closest to Fusion IO than any other PCIe card • With Seagate OEMing FlashMax it will allow for STX (who has access to Samsung NAND flash) to under cut FIO. • EMC also OEMs Virident for XtremSF product line. • FIO moving to tick-tock cadence – ala Intel • Major developments in roadmap every 12 months • Mid life kickers (or refreshes) every 6 months • Will enable 15nm to 10nm by 2014/2015 • TLC in ioDrive by 2016
  11. 11. Fusion IO| Potential Partnership 11
  12. 12. Enterprise Storage Market Going Forward 12 ~$4.5 billion market for server-side flash storage in 2012 – based on revenue of top players. If you broaden the addressable market to include the “performance tier of spinning disk storage” then you have a market opportunity between $14 billion and $20 billion Flash storage market is obviously soaring — up 70% a year in 2012, but expected to be in mid 40s% in 2013 Courtesy Storagegaga
  13. 13. Summary | Enterprise Storage Marketplace 13 1. Expect FIO Opex to remain level as SGA is cut but R&D increases for ‘tick-tock’ roadmap. 2. Expect eSSD gross margins to continue to decline as SMB and appliance markets are addressed and ‘real’ competition has increased. 3. Look for consolidation by end of CY 2013 – as enterprise qualifications take ~6 months. 4. Expect 1-2 more stealth-mode start ups emerge to serve non- PCIe enterprise implementations. 5. Lastly – expect the large HDD/SAN/NAS players to become more significant market participants.
  14. 14. Rather than replacing HDDs, SSDs and flash memory are enabling new devices and new applications, and increasing the demand for storage of digital data on more cost-effective HDDs. The result is the overall demand for HDD storage capacity continues to grow at over 40 percent a year compounded. Driven by: One more thing … | HDD will thrive with SSDs Content from mobile devices Synchronizing data across multiple devices Thin and light notebooks 14
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